Chuyen dich ca cau kinh te va nang suat lao dong cr Viet Nam
Nguy&iThiVanHa
Trung t ^ Phto tich va Du bao. Vien Han ISm KHXH Viet Nam
Ty tigng nganh ndng nghiep trong GDP giim din qua eic nim, thay vio dd l i tang ty trpng ddng gdp cua nginh edng nghidp v i nginh dieh vu. Kit qua li nen kinh t l ehuydn dieh theo hudng lich cue, phfl hop vdi quy luit tang tnrdng va phit tiiln kinh tl. Chuyin dieh co eiu kinh td gdp phin thuc day tang trudng nang suit lao ddng tdng hpp, d i e bidt tiong giai dogn 2001-2010 khi dau tu true tilp nudc ngoii ting mgnh. So vdi eac qud'c gia trong khu vye cd trinh do phat triln cao hon thi Viet Nam vin edn nhilu du dia cho tang trudng kinh td dua vao ehuyin dich eo eiu.
1. Boi canh cu can kinh te Viet Nam thul gian qua Tang trudng va phit tridn kinh td eua mdi qude gia d i u gan liln vdi chuyin djch eo eau kinh tl, dac biet la tang nhanh ty trpng ddng gdp vio GDP cua cie nganh edng nghiep, nganh thuong mgi djeh vu vi giim din ty trgng ddng gop vio GDP efla nginh ndng nghiep.Trong khoing Ihdi gian tfl nam 2011 ddn nam 2017, eflng vdi td'c dp tang trudng lien tue vi tuong ddi dn djnh efla GDP, ehuyin djch eo eiu nginh idnh t l cung da ed su thay ddi ding kl theo hudng tieh eye.
Ty trpng ddng gdp cfla nganh ndng nghiep vao GDP da giim, tang ty trgng ddng gdp trong GDP efla nginh edng nghidp va nganh dich vu. Cu lhl, bang 1 cho thiy n l u nhu nam 2011 ty trpng cfla nginh ndng nghidp trong GDP la 19,57% thi d i n nam 2017 giam xudng cdn 15,34%; tiong khi ty trpng eua nginh cdng nghiep trong GDP tang tfl 32,24% nam 2011 Idn 33,40% nam 2017 v i ty trgng cua nganh dich vu tang tu 36,73% nam 2011 len 41,26% nam 2017.
Bans 1: Cg (ia GPP theo nganh kinh le giaiao^n 2011-2017 (%) Nam
NoDg nghifp C&ng nghiSp D|Chvu
Ng 2011 19,S7 32,24 36,73 u6n; T6
2012 19,22 33,56 37,27 n g c u c t
2013 17,96 33,19 3S.74 h&Dgke
2014 17,70 33.21 39.04
*sob 2015 17.00 33.25 39.73
ZOlti 16,32 32,72 40,92
2017*
15,34 33,40 41,26
Cflng vdi thay ddi ty 1| dong gdp vao GDP thi co eau lao ddng trong cie nginh niy eung ed su chuyin dich rd rdt. Nlu nhu nam 2011 ty trpng lao ddng trong nganh ndng nghiep l i 48,4% thi din nam 2017 da giam xudng edn 40,2%; nguoe lgi thi ty trgng Igo ddng trong nganh edng nghidp lang tfl 21,2% nam 2011 ldn 25,7% nam 2017 va ty trpng lao dpng nginh dich vy tang tfl 30,4% nam 2011 len 34,1% nam 2017 (bang 2).
Bing2: T? trgnglaoajngaieo nginh kinh te gtal dojn2011-2017(H) N i m
N6ngnghlfti CSng n g b l ^ Dlchvg
ZOIl 21^0 30,30 Ngu
2012 21,10 31,50 5n: Tong
2013 21,40 31,90 qiclhfi
2014 21,50 32,20 igkfi,'5g
2015 22,90 33,10 b9
2016 24,70 33.40
2017*
2S,70 34,10
Mdt ciu hdi dupe dgt ra li su ehuyin dieh ea cau kinh le nhu vay cd ddng gdp vio vide tang nang suit lao ddng d Viet Nam nhu thi nao? So vdi eic nudc trong khu vue va so vdi nhdm nude thu nhap tmng binh thap, nhdm nudc thu nhap thip thi tang trudng nang suit lao ddng efla Vidt Nam do ylu td nao quydt dinh va cd su khie biet gi so vdi cie qudc gia dupe so sinh? Bai vidt sfl dung phuang phip phan ti'eh ty trpng thay ddi (Shift-share analysis—SSA) de xem xet va phan tieh tic dpng cua thay doi eo eiu kinh td d i n tang trudng nang suit lao ddng va so sinh vdi mdt sd qude gia, nhdm nude ehgn loe.
Phuang phap phan tieh thay ddi ty tipng (shift- share analysis-SSA) dupe dung d l nghien cuu tae ddng cua sy khie bidt tiong eiu trfle nganh d i n tang trudng nang suit lao dgng tdng hop tai eae qude gia khie nhau (Wolff 2000; Rao vi Tang 2001). Phan tich nay dupe su dung rdng rai de do ludng su ddng gdp efla eic nganh khic nhau den lang Irudng nang suit lao ddng long hop. Gii dinh eo bin efla edng thue li sin lupng thyc t l dupe tinh theo gii cd dinh sfl dung d c i mue dd tdng hpp v i eip nginh.
Theo phuang phip niy, ddng gdp cfla nginh vio tang trudng nang suit lao dgng tdng hpp cd the dupe ehia thinh ba ydu td tie ddng:
- y l u td ndi nginh (The within-seetor effect): do ludng sy ddng gdp cfla ting trudng nang suit lao ddng trong mdi nginh len tang trudng ning suit lao dgng tdng hpp.
- Ydu td chuyin dieh eo eiu (The stmetural change effect): do ludng sy ddng gdp cua thay ddi eo ciu qua vide do ludng sy thay ddi ty l | lao ddng trong eic nganh tdi tang trudng nang suit lao dpng tong hpp.
- Tuong tic giua cac ylu td (The interactive eifect):
do ludng su ddng gdp cua viec tuong tic gifla tic dpng npi nganh va tic ddng thay ddi ca eau len ning suit lao ddng tdng hgp.
N G H I E N C U U 2. Tac dong cua chuyen dich cv cau kinh te den nang suat lao dpng
Kit qua eua chuyen dich ca ciu chinh la sy ddng gop vao nang cao ehit lugng tang Irudng kinh Id, do bang thay ddi nang suit lao ddng tong hcrp va tdc dp tang nang suit lao ddng tdng thi n l n kinh td Vi|t Nam. Trong giai dogn 2011-2017, nang suit lao dgng tdng thd nln kinh l l Viet Nam da ting tfl 7.988 USD/ngudi nam 2011 ldn 10.427 USD/ngudi nam 2017, vdi tdc do tang trung binh Ii 4,40%/nam. Trong dd, nang suit Iao dpng efla nganh djch vu tang tu 9.707 USD/ngudi nam 2011 lln 12.234 USD/ngudi nam 2017, vdi tdc dp tang tmng binh khoang 4,37%/nam; nganh edng nghidp cd td'c dp tang tu 12.133 USD/ngudi nam 2011 len 15.208 USD/ngudi nam 2017 vdi td'c dd tmng binh khoing 3,94%/nam va nganh ndng nghiep tang tfl 3.215 USD/ngudi nam 2011 Idn 3.816 USD/ngudi nam 2017 vdi tdc do tang tmng binh khoang 3,18%/nam (xem bang 3).
B i n g 3 : N i n g i u i t tao a^nggiiiao>n 2011-2017 (USD/nKaiM) N6nKiiRhin>
Cingaghi^
Djdivv Tenglh^nen klnlitc
2D11 3 215 12 133 9.707 7.9SS
2012 3 33S 13.110 9 749 8.233
2013 3.284 13 374 10,328 S.S40
2014 3 412 13 S4S 10 728 8.926
lOlS 14 065 11 096 9.419
2016 3 767 14 248 11 726 9.891
2017 3.816 15 208 12 234 10.427 Nguon World Dneiopmenl Indicators i
Kdt qui phin tich thay ring ehuyin dich eo cau kinh t l ddng gdp kha quan tigng vao tang tiudng cfla nang suit lao ddng tdng tbI nln kinh tl, dac biet trong giai doan 2001-2010 vdi mue ddng gdp li 54%. Mac du budc sang giai doan 2011-2017 ehuyin dieh eo ciu kinh td da giam ty le ddng gop vio nang suit lao ddng long hop so vdi gieii dogn 2000-2010, nhung van gifl d mfle luong dd'i cao 39% (xem hinh 1). Viee giim ty tigng ddng gdp efla ehuyin dich ca cau kinh t l vao tang trudng nang suit lao ddng tdng hpp cfla giai doan 2011-2017 li phfl hop vdi quy luit phit triln eua cie nen kinh t l da qua giai dogn ehuyin doi. Didu dd cd nghia la tang nang suit igo dpng tdng hpp se phu thudc chu ylu vao tang nang suit Igo ddng eflg lung nganh.
Phin tieh eic ylu to inh hudng den tang trudng nang suit lao ddng trong ba nginh kinh t l cd lhl thiy ring nginh ndng nghi|p eo ddng gdp rit Ueh cue ehilm 21% tren tong sd 39% mue ddng gdp cfla chuyin dieh eo eau kinh Id d i n tang trudng nang suit lao dpng. Tilp sau dd la nganh dich vu cd mfle ddng gdp 11% va nganh cdng nghidp d mfle 7%. Trong khi dd, neu xet vl mfle ddng gdpvao tang nang suit ndi nginh thi bin than nginh cdng nghiep va nginh dieh vu cd mue ling tiudng ndi nginh khi cao chilm ty trpng 22% vi 27% trong tdng sd mfle ddng gdp 56%
vio ting tiudng nang suit lao ddng
Cic phin tieh a tien da phin nao ly giii duoe nguyin nhin eua sy dieh ehuyin manh me Iao ddng tfl nginh ndng nghi|p sang nganh cdng nghiep, dae bidt sang nganh c h l biln c h l tgo nhit l i sau khi ed lac dpng cua hpi nhip kinh le tiong nhflng nim diu
8
thi ky 21, khi Vidt Nam tham gia ky kit Hidp dinh Thuang mai Viet Nam — Hoa Ky nam 2001 va gia nhip To chflc Thuang mai The gidi (WTO) vao nam 2007.
Hdi nhap qudc td dua den nhung eo hpi ldn vd thu hut vdn d i u lu true tilp nudc ngoii (FDI) vio nginh cdng nghidp chd bien e h i tgo vi md rg nhung ca hdi vl quan hd thuong mgi vdi eic qudc gia. Sy phit triln ngiy cing md rdng cua nginh cdng nghidp c h l bidn c h l tgo keo theo su di chuyin efla lao dgng tfl nginh cd nang suit lao ddng thip hon (ndng nghidp) sang nginh ed nang suit lao ddng cao hon vi tic dgng lim tang nang suit lao ddng tdng thi n l n kinh tl.
3. So sanh vol mpt so quoc gia va nhom nirdi;
Phin trdn da phan lich tic ddng efla chuyin djch ca eiu kinh te din ting trudng kinh te ma ey thd li eie yeu id tie ddng d i n tang nang suit lao dgng. O phin niy s l so sinh vdi mdt so qude gia trong khu vyc cung nhu mdt sd nhdm nudc tuong dong d l thiy rd hon kit qui chuyin dieh co ciu kinh t l cua Viet Nam.
Bing 4 cho thiy ring nang suit Iao ddng cuaViet Nam tuy ed tde do tang tiudng cao thu 2 sau Tmng Qudc, nhung thip hon hin Tmng Qude va eie nudc trong khu vyc. Cu thi, nang suit lao ddng cua Viet Nam chi bang mp tnua cfla Philippines, bing 1/3 nang suit Iao dpng cua Thai Lan, bing 2/3 nang suit lao ddng efla Indonesia, bing 1/7 nang suit lao ddngeua Malaysia,bang 1/2 nang suit lao ddng cua Tmng Qude nam 2010 va dd'n nam 2016 chi bang 1/3 nang suit lao ddng eua Tmng Qude (Bang 4). Tdc dp tang Irudng nang suit lao ddng eflaViet Nam d mfle khi eao (4,73%) eho thiy khi phu hop vdi quy luat vl nang suit can bien giim dan ed lpi hon vdi eac nude ed xuit phat dilm thip hon. Trong khi cac qude gia khie trong khu vyc da trii qua thdi ky dd thi hda va edng nghidp hda thi nhung nudc ed xuat phit dilm thap hon nhu Vidt Nam lai tan dung dupe nhung co hpi ldn vl dd thi hda vi cdng nghidp hda d l tang nang suat lao ddng, tiln tdi bit kip cie qude gig di trude.
BlnK4:Ndn
Malaysia Thil Lan Indonesia Philippines
tmmm
Tmng Qu6c Nluillao 2006 46.606 21033 16 675 13 220 11 209
•abn V.
dftng c&a 2.0, 50 901 21926 17 812 13 837 7134 1 ^M IdDe el
Vi^ Nam vi m^t 2010 SO 330 23 293 18 832 14 084 7 714 Ifi pmenili
2012 51.134 24 601 20 366 NB41 8333 10 60 d calots
^ quficEla troDK kbn vuc (USD) 2014
52.751 25.779 21940 16 200
'^^E^KSI
1503 hragiAP
2016 55 350 27 165 2JS2 17 373 25.530
>P201l Thz S^ ting
ttuong TB baoEnSmm)
2,58%
3,04%
2,S1H 1,86%
8.90%
So vdi nhom cac nuae eo thu nhap thip vi tmng binh vi nhdm nude ed thu nhip tmng binh thip thi nang suit lao ddng cua Vilt Ngm 6 mue thip hon xip xi trdn 2 lin va trdn 1,5 lin va khoing cich c6 xu hudng thu hep din d n i m 2016 khi dudng thing ed xu hudng di xudng. Ngupc lgi thi ning suit igo ddng eua Vidt Nam lai ed xu hudng ngiy cing cich xa so vdi nhdm cic nudc co thu nh^p thap khi ludn d mfle gip
ddi. Ndi cich khie, Viet Nam dang cd trinh dd phit triln gan tuong duong vdi nhdm eie nude thu nhip tmng binh thap.
Xem xil n l n kinh l l vdi ba nganh kinh td chinh bao gdm ndng nghidp, edng nghidp va djch vu thi nang suit lao ddng efla Vi|t Nam tuy thip hon eie nude nhung khoing eieh dang duoe thu h?p Igi, dac biet trong nganh dieh vu. Trong nginh ndng nghiep, tu nim 2000 d i n nam 2005 khi nang suit lao ddng efla nganh ndng nghiep d eae nude Philippines vi Indonesia gan nhu khdng thay ddi thi Trung Qudc, Viet Nam vi Thai Lan cd td'c do tang nhanh hon. Tuy nhidn, trong giai doan tfl nam 2005 d i n nam 2016 trong khi cac nudc Thai Lan, Indonesia va Tmng Qudc dgt mfle ting trudng i n tugng trong nang suit nginh ndng nghidp thi mfle tang trudng nang suit lao ddng cua \^et Nam trong nganh niy vin duy tri d mfle thip.
Trong nganh edng nghiep, nang suit lao ddng cua Indonesia vi Thii Lan ludn cao hon Viet Nam khoing lu 3 din 4 lan, tilp dd l i nang suit lao ddng eua Philippines eao hon Vidt Nam khoing gin 2 lin.
Tmng Qudc cd mue nang suit Iao ddng trong nganh cdng nghidp thip honVidt Nam 6 nhtrng nam 1991- 1995. Tuy nhien, nang suit lao ddng trong nganh cdng nghidp cfla Tmng Qudc tang nhanh honVidt Nam va da vual xaVidt Nam kd tu nam 2005dln nam 2016.
Trong nganh dich vu cflng xay ra tinh trang tuong ly nhu nganh cdng nghidp, nhung khoing cich vl nang suit lao ddng efla Viet Nam so vdi eic nudc nhd hon, gan bat kip vdi tde dd tang nang suit lao ddng cua Philippines va Indonesia. So vdi Tmng Qudc thi khoing cieh vl nang suit lao dgng ngay cang rdng va khd cd thi bat kip trong tuong lai. Diiu nay cho thiy ring nang suit lao ddng cfla \^et Nam da ed cai thien qua eae nam nhung ehua ding kl vi hidu qui edn thip. Tuy nhidn, su thay ddi eo eiu efla thi trudng lao dgng ed lhl ed nhflng tic ddng am hong tang nang suit lao ddng cua lung nginh kinh ll, nhung vin ed tac ddng eflng ehilu Idn nang suit lao ddng tdng hpp.
So sanh eie ydu td tic ddng din tang trudng nang suit eflg Viet Nam so vdi eie nudc cd thi thiy ring, nudc eo ning suit lao ddng eao nhit la Malaysia thi viec cii thi|n ning suit lao ddng thdng qua ting trudng ning suit ndi nginh (vdi ty trgng 110%), luc li tang ning suit rieng eua tflng nginh ddng gdp ehinh vio tang trudng chung efla nln kinh t l va ehuyin djch eo ciu kinh t l hau nhu khdng ddng vai trd trong vide tang trudng nang suit lao ddng (khi ehi chilm ty trpng -8%). Tuong tu tnrdng hpp efla Tmng Qude cung la do ylu td ndi nginh cd tie ddng ehfl ylu din tang trudng nang suit lao ddng efla toin bd nln kinh l l (vdi ty trpng 83%) va ehuyen dich co eiu ehi ehilm ty tipng nhd 9%. Trong khi dd, ddng gdp cfla ehuyin dieh ca cau kinh t l den nang suit lao dpng cfla Thii Lan, Indonesia, PhilippJnes,Vidt Nam vi nhdm cic nudc thu nhgp tmng binh thip, nhdm nudc thu nhip thip
vi tinng binh chidm ty le khi ego tuong ung vdi 27%, 26%, 17%, 39% vi 29%, 23%. Nhung qude gig niy se cd nhilu du dia d l nang eao nang suit Iao ddng dua vio thay doi ca ciu, ehuyin dieh lao ddng du thua tfl nginh ndng nghidp sang cic nginh hi|n dai hon,
4. Ket luan
Chuyin dieh co eiu kinh t l da ddng gdp nhung kit qua nhit dinh vio ling trudng kinh t l ndi chung va ting nang suit Iao ddng ndi rigng cua nln kinh t l Viet Nam giai doan 2011-2016. Cie phan tieh da dua ra d tren deu ehflng minh rang dieh chuyin lao ddng tfl nginh ndng nghiep sang nginh cdng nghidp va dich vu li xu hudng tit ydu, phu hpp vdi quy luit phil triln- kinh t l va hpi nhip qude t l eho cic qudc gia dang phit triln. Viet Nam li mdt nudc dang phit triln, do dd cflng khdng nim ngoii quy luit nay.
So sinh vdi cic qude gia ed nln kinh t l phit triln hon (nhu Malaysia, Thii Lan, Philippines, Indonesia) cho thay Viet Nam tuy edn kdm khi xa vl trinh dp phit triln nhung vl tdc dp tang trudng nang suit Iao dpng thi Viet Nam nhanh han va trong lucmg Iai gin se dudi kip eac qudc gia nay. Tuy nhidn, so vdi Tmng Qudc thi rd ring Vidt Nam kim xa c i vl tde dp tang Irudng nang suit lao ddng vi trinh dp phit triln./.
Tai lieu tham khao
Ngin hing Thi gidi va Bp Kl hogeh vi Dau lu (2015), Bio cio Viet Nam 2035,
Vien Nang suit Vidt Nam (2015), Bio cio nang suit Vidt Nam 2015
Nguyen Thi Mai Phuang (2017), Chuyin dich ca ciu nginh kinh td eua Viet Nam: Thinh tyu va kien nghi. Tap ehi Tii Chinh, tmy e i p tai hllp://tapchitaieh- inh.vn/nghien-euu-trao-doi/chuyen-dieh-co-cau- nganh-kinh-te-eua-viet-nam-thanh-tuu-va-kien-nghi- 127535.html
16] Nguyin Thi Tue Anh (2018), Chuyen dieh co eiu nginh vi ddng gdp vao chat lupng tang Irudng kinh l l Viet Nam, Tap chi Tai chinh, truy e i p tgi http://tapehitaichinh.vn/nghien-cuu~trao-doi/lrao-doi- binh-luan/chuyen-dieh-co-eau-nganh-va-dong-gop- vao-chat-luong-tang-truong-kinh-te-viet-nam- 135248.html
Rao, Someshwair, and Jianmin Tang (2001) 'The contribution of ICTs to productivity growth in Canada and the United States in the 1990s,' Intemational Productivity Monitor 3
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asymptotic stagnancy and new evidence", Amerietin Economic Review, Vol. 75, No. 4, pp. 806-817
