Cuoc chien thircmg mai My - Trung va nhirng van de dat ra vol Viet Nam
Do Tien Sam'*'
Tom tat: Cupc chiin thuang mgi My - Trung da ldm cho quan hi hai nu&e ldm vdo tinh trgng khd khdn nhdt trong vong 40 ndm qua. No khong ehi dnh huang din su tdng truang cua hai nen kinh te lan nhdt the gi&i, md con dnh hu&ng den tdng truang cua kinh ti the gi&i. Bdi viit trinh bdy vdphdn tich cde muc tiiu ngdn hgn, trung hgn vd ddi hgn md My nhdm vdo Trung Qudc; dong th&i ldm ro nhiing gidi phdp ung pho eua Trung Qudc; qua dd rut ra mpt so nhdn xet bu&c ddu.
TCr khoa: Chifln tranh thuang mai My - Trung, Quan he Viet - Trung, Quan he Viet - My, Trung Quflc, My
Abstract: The US-China trade war has made relations between the two countries undergo the most difficult period in the past 40 years. It not only affects the growth ofthe world's two largest economies but also that ofthe world economy. The paper presents and analyzes short-term, medium-thrm and long-term goals ofthe United States for China in line with China's response. Some initial conclusions are drawn thereby.
Keywords: The US-China Trade War, Vietnam-China Relation, Vietnam-US Relation, China, The United States
Md dau Viet Nam la nude ldng giflng cua Trung Giira thang 6/2018, Hoa Ky da khdi Quoe, dfli tac thucmg mai quan hpng vdi su cupc tan cflng vao nen kinh tfl Trung hai nfln kmh tfl lom la Trung Quoe vd My.
Quflc. Ddy dupe eoi Id khdi ddu cua cupc Vi vay, nhung difln bifln eiia cupc chifln nay chifln tranh thuong mai giua hai nfln kinh du mudn hay khflng cung se tae dflng, dnh tfl hdng ddu the gidi My - Trung. Cupc hudng dfln su phat hien va an ninh quflc gia chifln nay da thu hut su quan tdm cua dong Q^^ yigj- >jani
dao du luan va dfln nay vdn dang tiflp difln, j . MUC tieu cua My trong cupc chi^n tranh tiem dn nhiflu nhdn td chua xac dinh, kho thuffng mai My - TVung
^ ° ^ ' Sau nhimg ldn dara phan raa thyc chdt ,., ^c™ .,-. ,, ... , „ ^ = -,,.- la cupc "ddu tri" giiia hai nha lanh dao My I' GS.TS., Vi?n Nghien cuu Trung Quoe, Vn;n , . ° , • •' Hin lam Khoa hoc xa hoi Viet Nam; Email: ^^ Tnmg Quflc - mac du xudt than khac [email protected] nhau nhung dflu cd tinh thdn dan tpc sdu sdc
ThOng tin Khoa hpc xa hoi. s611.2018 - da khdng dat kflt qua nhu mong dpi. Ngay
15/6/2018, Tong thdng My Donald Trump da chinh thiic "khai dao", md mdn cho cupc chien thucmg mai My - Trung vdi vi?c ap thue 25% cho 1.333 mat hang tri gia khodng 50 ty USD, trong do co 818 mat hang Trung Quoe xudt khdu sang My tri gia khoang 34 ty USD cfl hiflu lyc tu ngdy 6/7/2018 (Du Vmh Djnh, 2018). Tiflp theo, ngay 19/7/2018, dng Trump de dpa ap thufl 10% cho 200 ty USD hang hoa nhdp khdu tir Trung Quflc vi cho rang thuang mai My - Trung da rat bdt binh dang trong mpt thdi gian dai va khflng thfl tiflp tyc kflo dai thflm niia**'.
Vdy muc tiflu thye su cua cupc ehien thuang mai ma My nham vdo Trung Quflc id gi? Qua nghifln cuu cae tai lieu cd lifln quan, chung toi cho rang viec My phat dflng chifln tranh thuang mai vdi Trung Quflc la nham vao nhung muc tiflu ngdn han, trung han va dai ban nhu sau:
Vi ngdn hgn. My dua ra cac bifln phap trimg phat Trung Qudc voi ly do bao ve lpi ich cua nguoi My, ngodi viec bupc Trung Quflc phai cd giai phap thu hep can can thuang mai song phuong dang co lpi eho phia Trung Quflc, till chinh quyfln Tflng thflng Donald Tmmp cdn nham rauc dich tranh thii la phieu ciia cd tri My trong cuflc bdu cir Quflc hdi giiia nhiem ky, thuflrng dupe xem la rapt thu nghi$m khd ndng boat dpng cua Tflng thflng, se difln ra vao ngay 6/11/2018.
'*' Theo thong ke tu Trung Quoe, nam 2017 thuang mai hai chieu Trung - My dat 583,7 ty USD, trong do Trung Quoe xuat sieu 275,8 ty USD, chi6m 65,3% xuat sieu hang hoa ciia Trung Quoe; con theo thong ke tir My, cimg nam nay, thuang mai My - Trung la 636,0 ty USD, trong do phia My nhap sieu 375,2 ty USD, chiem 46,3% con sfl nhap sieu cua nuac nay (Dan theo: http://finance.
qq.com/a/20I80324/012801.htm).
Ve trung hgn, muc tiflu cua My chinh la nham "pha" chifln lupc "Trung Quflc che tao 2025", theo dfl Trung Quflc thfl hifln tham vpng mudn vuan Ifln trd thanh cuomg quflc chfl tao vao ndra 2025**'. Cho den nay, eae cflng nghe hat nhdn phyc vu eho chifln lupc nay vdn nam trong tay My va cac nude phat trifln khae. Vi v^y thong qua cupc chifln nay. My mudn ngan can cac doanh nghiep My va cac nude phdt trifln khac dang ddu tu hoac hpp tac kinh doanh voi Trung Quflc chuyfln giao cong nghe hat nhan eho Trung Quflc.
Vi lau ddi, muc tiflu cua nen kinh te hang ddu the gidi nay la nhara kiflm chfl sy troi day hay phyc hung eua Trung Quflc, khdng de Trung Qudc cd the canh tranh dia vi ba chii ciia My; dong thdi thong qua cupc chien nay (co ngucd gpi la "Chien tranh Lanh mdi") danh dd md hinh CNXH dac sdc Trung Quflc ma nude ndy dang xay dyng va quang ba, tiep tuc khang dinh sy thdng the ciia mo hinh CNTB do My ddn ddt.
Nhu vdy, cupc chifln thucmg mai chi la rapt trong nhiing cdng cu ma My nhara vao Trung Qudc, ngoai muc dich thuang mai con cd van dfl cflng nghe, vdn dfl tifln tfl, vdn dfl Dai Loan, tu do hang hai d bifln Ddng, phi hat nhan hda d bdn dao Triflu Tifln, v.v... Theo dy bao cua cac nha khoa hpc Trung Quflc, tiflp theo cupc chifln thuang mai nham vdo "cudng quflc thuang mai" Trung Quflc, My voi tu each "cuomg
<•' 'Trung Qu6c che tao 2025" ("Made in China 2025") dugc coi la Cuang linh hanh d^ng 10 nam thij nhat thuc hien ChiSn luge cuang quflc chg t^o cua Trung Quoe, do Quflc vy vi?n Trung Quflc cong bfl ngay 8/5/2015. dugc chia lam 3 buac, theo do den nam 2025 Trung Quflc se buac vEio hang ngu cu6ng quoe che tao.
Cupc c h l ^ thuong mai "Sty - Trung...
quflc tifln tfl" se dimg he thong tifln tfl voi dflng Ddla My dang giii vai trd chu dao va chi phfli dfl "pha" he thflng ngan hang tai chinh tifln tp chua md cua va hipn dang tiflm dn nhiflu rui ro ciia Trung Quoe. Diflu quan trpng la, ddng sau eupe chifln thucmg mai ma My nhdm vao Trung Quflc, My mufln bdo ddm rang My mai la quoe gia cd uu thfl tuyflt ddi khdng the vupt qua.
Thara chi co y kifln con cho rang "chifln tranh thuomg mai My - Trung chi la phu, la biflu tupng; con chien tranh tifln tfl radi la chinh. Id thyc chdt" (http://fi.nance.sina.
c o m . c n / c h i n a / g n c j / 2 0 1 8 - 0 4 - 0 6 / d o c - ifysuuyc2981070.shtral).
Phan tieh trfln cho thdy, cupc chifln thuang mai My - Trung co tinh chdt va myc tiflu hodn toan khdc vdi cde bipn phdp md My dang va se ap dung vdi cdc doi tac vd dflng minh eua My d chau Au, dflng thdi ciing khac vdi cupc canh tranh My - Nga hi?n nay. Cupc chifln nay la rapt cflng cu dfl lay long cu tri My trong ngan han, nam trong he thdng gidi phap phyc vy cho muc tiflu dia chinh tri va chifln lupc an ninh quoe gia cd tinh lau dai va todn cdu cua My. Vi vay, nfl cfl the keo ddi dfln giiia thfl ky XXI - thdi diflm ma Van kifln Dai hpi XIX cua Dang Cflng sdn Trung Quflc gdn ddy xdc dinh Trung Quoe se trd thanh cucmg quoe hipn dai hda, tham chi keo dai den 50 ndm (Ly Hiflu, 2018). Day la dieu chiing ta cdn tiflp tuc quan sat va nghifln cuu.
2. Phan ung ciia Trung Quoe
Tnrdc cac thdng tin vfl cupc chifln thucmg mai My - Trung, Chu tich Trung Quflc Tap Can Binh van td ra binh than.
Con Bfl Thuang mai Trung Quflc da dua ra mpt ban Tuyen bd gdra 6 diera, cho rang hanh dpng cua Trung Qudc la chinh
dang, hpp ly, hpp phap nham thyc hifln
"ba bao vfl" gom; "bdo vfl lpi ich cua nhan dan va su ton nghiem cua qudc gia"; "bao vfl cac nguyfln tac t u do mau dich va the che mdu dich da phuong"; "bao vfl lpi ich chung ciia cac nude trfln the gioi"; dflng thdi khdng dinh lap truomg cua Trung Quoe la "kifln dinh ung hp todn eau hoa kinh te, kifln dinh bao vfl he thflng kinh tfl quoe tfl"; v.v... (http://politics.com.en/nl/
2018/0712/cl001-30144224.hhnl).
Vdy, Trung Quflc ddp tra lai cupc chifln thuang mai ma My nhdm vao nude nay nhu thfl nao? Qua nghifln cuu cac tai lieu eo lien quan, chiing toi nhan thdy, vfl mat chinh thlic, Trung Qudc chi xera ddy la sy "ep sdt thuang mai". Tuy nhifln, quan diflm cua cac hpc gia nude ndy dflu gpi ddy la "mdu dich chifln", nghia la chifln tranh thuang raai.
Hp cho rang, viec Trung Quflc dap tra lai cac bifln phap eiia My ciing nham thye hifln nhiing mue tiflu ngan han, trung ban vd ddi han nhu sau:
vi ngdn hgn, Trung Quflc da lucmg trudc cupc chifln thucmg mai vdi My la khong thfl trdnh khoi nfln mpt mat van muon thong qua dam phan dfl "cuu van"
tinh hinh; nhung mat khac da ehii dpng lap rapt danh saeh ndng thufl 2 5 % ddi vdi 659 raat hdng cfl xudt xd tu My dupe xuat khdu sang thi truomg Trung Quflc tri gia khoang 50 ty USD, trong dd 545 mat hang co tri gia khoang 34 ty USD dupe thyc hifln tu ngay 6/7/2018. Nhu vay, cupc chifln thuang mai trudc mat cd tdng tri gia khodng 68 ty USD hong so h a n 500 ty USD can cdn thuang mai giixa hai bfln. Theo cdc nhd khoa hpc Trung Quflc, diflu pay chi gdy anh hudng ban chfl ddi vdi sy phat trifln kinh te cua Trung Quflc; vfl c a ban nd cung da duac
Th6ng Rn Khoa hpc xa hpi. s611.201S cac ngaiih nghfl va doanh nghiep cua nude
nay "tieu hda", thara chi eo ngdnh nghfl va doanh nghiep cdn hda giai qua miic can thiflt (Ma Tudn, 2018).
Ve trung vd ddi hgn, Trung Qudc coi cupc chien thuang mai vdi My gidng nhu liflu thufle kich thich vfl cung tot, rapt raat nd bpc Ip su chenh lech qud ldn giua Trung Quoe so vdi My vfl cac raat sang tao eong nghfl, chfl tao cdng doan cao, dieh vu tdi chinh tifln te...; mat khac no cung eho thdy nhiflu bifln phap cdi cdeh rad Trung Quflc thyc hien rady chyc ndra qua da khdng con phii hpp, cdn phai thay thfl nhu: chinh sach thuang mai hudng vao xudt khau, diing thi truomg dfli cdng nghfl eao han...
Vi vdy, Tnmg Qudc se day manh thyc hi$n Nghi quyflt Dai hpi Dang Cdng sdn Tnmg Quflc ldn thii XIX, theo do tap trung vdo cdi cdch thfl chfl: "Thiie day hifln dai hfla he thflng qudn tri va nang lue quan tri quflc gia, kien quyflt phd bd nhung rao can vfl ea chfl, thfl chfl va quan niflm tu tudng khdng con phil hpp, dot phd hang rao lpi ich da cd kflt" (Tap C^n Binh, 2017: 21). Ciing vdi do, Trung Quflc ddy nhanh tifln frinh xdy dyng quflc gia theo mfl hinh sang tao, coi
"Sang tao la dpng lyc thu nhdt dfl dan ddt phat trifln, la tru cpt chifln lupc cho viec xay dyng he thflng kinh te hifln dai hfla..., tap trung vao nhiing nganh mui nhpn ciia khoa hpc va cflng nghe the gidi, coi trpng nghifln cuu CO ban..., tang cuomg nghien cuu ung dyng, trpng diflm la nhiing cong nghfl eo tinh then chot..., nham tao cho dua tri tue xa hpi cho viec xdy dyng cuomg quoe khoa hpc cflng nghe, cuomg quflc chdt lupng, cudng qudc hang khflng vQ tru, cudng quflc mang, cudng quflc giao thflng, Trung Quflc so hoa...; dao tao dpi ngu nhdn tai khoa hpc
cdng nghfl chien lupc dat trinh dp qudc tfl"
(Tap Can Binh, 2017: 31).
Ben eanh do, Tnmg Quoe se van kien djnh khdng thay doi myc tiflu bien quflc gia nay trd thdnh cuomg quflc hifln dai hoa vao giiia thfl ky XXI, thyc hifln gidc raa Trang Quflc, phuc hung Trung Hoa. Dflng thfli, vdi vi thfl cua mpt nude lom, nfln kinh tfl lom thii hai thfl gidi, thucmg raai hdng hoa vd dy tru ngoai tfl lom nhdt thfl gidi, Trang Quflc vdi danh nghia bao vfl lpi ich va gidnh quyfln phat ngdn cua cac nude dang phat trien se tich eye va chii dpng tham gia vao viec thay dfli cae lu^t chai qudc te hien hanh theo hudng cd lpi cho Trung Quflc va cac nude dang phdt trifln.
Tuy nhifln, eiing ed y kifln cho rdng trong cupc chifln nay Trung Qudc cfl hai phdn dodn sai Idra: Thii nhdt, phan doan sai Idra vfl ca nhan Tdng thong My Donald Trump, cho rang dng la mot thuong gia ehua CO kinh nghiem lara chinh tri, nhimg thuc chdt ong Trump cd rapt dpi ngii tu van CO tdra chien lupc va khdng dong tinh voi cdeh thfl hifln cua Trang Quflc; Thie hai, phan doan sai lam vfl moi "lifln minh bang hiiu" giua chdu Au, Nhat Ban vdi My, khdng loai tru kha nang My, chau Au vd Nhdt Ban se "lifln thu vdi nhau dfl thay dfli trat ty vd quy tac thuang raai toan can, cdn Trung Quoe ddng trudc mfli nguy bi loai khoi he thflng thuomg raai ehu yflu cua thfl gioi (http://www.backchina.com/news /2018/08/01 /575219.htail).
3. Nhirng van de dat ra vdi Vift Nam Vipt Nara la nude lang giflng mii lien mii, sflng lifln song, giao thflng di lai thudn tifln vdi Trung Qudc nfln su phat trifln hay khflng cua Trung Quoe dflu se tac ddng dfln sy phat trifln ciia Viet Nam ca vfl co hpi va
Cu6c chien thuomg mai OT? -Trung...
thach thlic. Mac du Trung Quflc da ehu ddng trong viee iing pho vdi cupc chifln thuang mgi do My phdt ddng, nhung cupc chifln nay vdn tac dpng, anh huomg nhdt dinh dfln su phdt trifln kinh te cda Tnmg Quflc va cac dfli tac kinh te cua nude nay.
a. Nhiing tdc dpng noi chung Nhu trfln da neu, cupc ehien thuong mai giiia hai nfln kinh tfl ldn nhat thfl gidi My - Trung Quflc se anh hudng dfln su phat trien cua hai nude va kinh te thfl gidi.
Doi vai Trung Qudc, theo thong tin td Cyc Thong ke Nha nude Trang Qudc nam 2018, kinh tfl Trang Quflc trong 6 thang ddu nam 2018 vdn duy tri duoc tflc dp tang tradng 6,8%, trong do tiflu dung dong gop tdi 78,5%, xuat nhap khdu trong thuang mai nfli chung chiem 59%, chat lupng tang truflmg da co su cai thifln nhdt dinh khi tiflu dung nang lupng sach trong tiflu dung nang lupng tang 1,5 diflm phan ham, con lupng tiflu hao nang lupng trong 10.000 Nhdn dan tfl GDP da gidm xuflng 3,2%. (http://www.
stats.gov.cn/tjsj/sjjd/201807/t20180716 _1609974.html). Nang lyc chdng ddddi vdi sue ep bfln ngoai cua nfln kinh tfl Trang Quflc da tdng Ifln khi miic dp dya vao thuang raai giara di ro ret tir 64% nam 2006 xuflng con 33% nam2017 (http://www.chinanews.com/
cj/2018/07-09/8560803.shtml). Nhiflu hpe gid nude nay cho rang anh huflmg cua ehien tranh thuang mai doi vdi Tmng Quflc la cd han. Gidra doc Trang tam Nghifln cuu Tien t? va Phat hifln Dai hpe Thanh Hoa, Uy vifln Uy ban Chinh sach tifln tfl Ngdn hdng Nhdn dan Trung Quoe Md Tudn cho rang, cudc chifln thuomg mai eo quy rad 50 ty USD se chi lam tang traflmg kinh tfl Tmng Qudc giam di 0,2 diflm phan tram (Ma Tuan, 2018). Tuy nhifln, khi trd ldi vfl anh
huflmg cua cupc chifln thuong mai vdi tang trudng kinh tfl trong thoi gian tdi, dai difln Cue Thflng kfl Nha nude Trung Quflc cho biflt vdn "cdn tiflp tuc quan sat". Diflu nay ndi Ifln rdng, viec duy tri toe dp tang tradng kinh tfl cao vua phai d Tmng Qudc trong thdi gian tdi van edn Id an sd (http://www.
stats.gov.cn/tjsj/sjjd/201807/t20180716_
1609974.html).
Theo chiing toi, trong thdi gian tdi, dfl ling phfl vdi viec My se sir dyng cdng cu tien tfl dfl "ep" Trung Qudc rad cira thi tmflmg tai chinh tien tp, khflng loai tru khd nang Tmng Quflc tiep tuc dieu chinh ty gid dflng nhdn ddn tfl dfl tang siic canh tranh eua hang hda khi xudt khdu. Diflu do se tao sdc flp dfli vdi hang hda cua cae nude khdc, trong do cd Viet Nam dang huomg vfl xudt khdu, dua vao xuat khau dfl duy tri tflc dp tang traflmg. Chua kfl den viec cdc nude ciing se cd sy can nhac trong diflu chinh ty gia hfli dodi nhara tang sdc canh tranh hang hfla eua minh. Ddy la chii dfl cac nha nghifln cuu tai chinh ciia Viet Nara cdn quan tdra.
b. Nhiing tdc dpng tich cue tgo ca hpi cho Viet Nam
Trfln cdc phuang tifln truyfln thflng, da cfl nhiflu nha khoa hpe trao ddi, thdo ludn vfl chu dfl nay (Xem: N. Bmh, 2018). Bfln canh viec ton trpng cac y kien do, chiing toi cho rdng viec diing hay sai con chd vdo thyc tien. Ci ddy, chiing tfli chi nflu rapt sfl y kifln budc ddu:
Mpt la vfl mat nhan thuc, nhu trfln da nflu, thuang mai chi la mpt trong nhiing cong cu raa My thuc hifln dfl kiem chfl Trung Quflc. My eiing da cflng khai xflp Trung Quflc ddng ddu trong danh sdch cac dfli thu ciia hp, bao gom: Trung Quoe, Nga, Cpng hoa Dan chii Nhdn dan Triflu Tifln, Iran va
ThOng tin Khoa hoc xa hpi. so 11.201S tap doan tpi pham xuyfln qudc gia. Nhu vay,
chifln tranh thucmg mai chi la mpt quan cd trfln ban cd nude ldn, mdt cupc canh tranh dia ehinh tri c6 tinh lau dai va toan cdu. Vi vay, ede gidi phap ung phd cua Viet Nam vira phdi ddp iing dupe yflu cdu trudc mat, vira phdi mang tinh todn cyc va lau dai.
Hai Id trfln co sd nhdn thuc nhu v$y, chung tfli cho rang, mpt mat Viet Nam nfln tan dung tflt ca hpi Trung Quflc md cira thi tradng, tich cyc va ehu dpng khai thac thi truomg Trung Quflc dfl xudt khdu nhung hang hda CO siic eanh tranh ciia Vet Nara nhu nong, hai san; raat khdc eai thifln rafli traflmg ddu tu dfl thu hiit nhiing doanh nghiflp cd thyc lye ca ve vfln va cflng nghfl cua ea Trung Quoe, My va cdc nude khac dfln Vpt Nam. Ngodi ra phdi ke dfln viec nhiflu doanh nghiep cua cac nfln kinh tfl phat trifln nhu Nhat Ban, Han Quflc, Dai Loan,.. do chiu tac ddng ciia cupc chifln thuang mai My - Trung bupc phdi di chuyfln khdi Trung Qudc dai lyc sang cac nude khac, trong do efl Vet Nam.
Ba Id vfl mat Idu dai, Viet Nam co thfl tham khdo kinh nghiem cua Trang Quflc trong viec cai cdch thfl chfl, ndng cao nang lye qudn tri quflc gia, phong va chflng sy hinh thanh cdc nhom lpi ich trong Ddng;
xdy dyng quflc gia theo rao hinh sang tao;
eoi trpng ddu tu cho nghifln ciiu khoa hpe, nhdt la nghifln cim chifln lupc, hinh thdnh dpi ngii cac nhd khoa hpe eo trinh dp d tdm khu vyc vd thfl gidi.
e. Nhiing tdc dong tiiu cue tgo ra thdch thuc cho Viet Nam
Day Cling la ndi dung dupe nhiflu nha khoa hpc Viet Nara quan tdm va thfl hifln chinh kifln trfln eae phuang tien thflng tin dai chiing. Trong bai viflt nay, chiing tdi trao doi them mpt sd y kifln nhu sau:
Mpt Id ve mat nhan thiie, nhung tae ddng tiflu cyc tir cupc chifln thuang mai My - Trung, nhdt la nhiing bipn phap ung pho cua Trung Qudc, tao ra nhiing thach thlic ddi voi sy phdt trifln va an ninh quflc gia cua Viet Nara vira co tinh cap bach, vua mang tinh chien lupc va lau dat. Vi vay, cdc giai phap ciia Viet Nam eung phai dap iing yflu cau trfln.
Hai Id, khi nghifln cdu vfl dnh hudng cua chifln tranh thuomg mai My - Trung, mot nha nghifln ciru va quan ly doanh nghipp cua Viet Nam da du doan: Se cd luong hang hoa Trung Quflc duoc xuat khdu sang Viet Nam, lam tang ty lfl nhdp sieu cua Vipt Nam; cimg voi do cd rapt sd hang hda va doanh nghiep Trung Quflc d Viet Nam, lay danh nghia Vet Nam hoac san xuat tai Viet Nam dfl tiflu thy tai thi tracmg My, nflu hi phat hifln vi pham se ldm mdt uy tin cua Viet Nam. Ngoai ra, nflu Trung Quflc tiflp tuc diflu chinh ty gia dflng nhan ddn tfl dfl dfli phd vdi cupc chifln tifln tfl cua My, diflu do se gay siic ep khifln cac nude trong do cd Viet Nam ciing phai diflu chinh ty gia dong npi tfl, tir do ddn dfln lam phat, dnh hudng dfln sdn xudt va doi song cua ngudi dan (Xem: N. Binh, 2018).
Vi vdy, Viet Nam edn tang cuomg qudn ly nhd nude vfl xudt nhdp khdu, nhat la chong bufln lau d khu vuc bifln gioi phia Bde; dong thdi tang cudng qudn ly ngan hang tifln tp, theo doi sat sao nhiing dpng thai diflu chinh ty gid dflng Nhan dan tfl cua Trang Quflc va hoat dflng ciia cdc ngdn hang Trang Quoe d Vet Nara.
Ba la ve raat an ninh quoe gia, viee Trang Quflc nflu Ifln vd trifln khai thuc hifln
"ba nhMih chong", bao gflm: "nhanh chong phdt trifln bifln cuong" d phia Bde; "nhanh chflng xay dyng cuomg qudc bifln", trong
Cupc chien thuong mai MY -Tmng..
do CO bifln Dong (Tap Can Binh, 2017: 32- 33); va "nhanh chflng ket noi chifln lupc"
voi Lao va Campuchia*"' se tao ra nhiing thdch thlic moi dfli voi an ninh quoe gia eua V?t Nam. Gdn ddy, Trang Quflc da chinh thdc khfli dpng xdy dung Hai Nara thdnh Khu mdu dich ty do va Cang mau dich ty do voi quy hogch thdnh 5 khu chuc ndng*"'.
Tinh Hai Nam ciing mdi ban hanh van ban '*' Tuyin bo chung Thing - Lao ngay 14/11/2017 ghi ro: "Nhanh chong ket noi chien luge giua Sang kien Vanh dai Con duang cua Trung Quoe vai chien luge bien nu6c khong co bien thinh quflc gia lien luc dja cua Lao, cung nhau xay dung Hanh lang kinh te Trung - Lao bat dau tu Van Nam, lay dudng sat Tmng - Lao lam cho dua, di qua mgt sfl khu vuc quan trgng, cufli cung den Nam Lao" (http://
wwwxinhuanet.com/20I711/14c_1121956391.
htm). Thong cdo chung giUa Chinh phi Cgng hoa Nhan ddn Trung Hoa vd Chinh pha Vuang qudc Campuchia ngay 11/1/2018 ghi ro: "Nhanh chong ket noi hieu qua giUa Sang kien Vdnh dai Con duang va Quy hoach 5 nam lan thii XIU cua Trung Quflc vai chien luge phat trien quflc gia va Kg hoach phat triln cflng nghiep 2015-2025 ciia Campuchia, thyc hi|n tot Cuang yeu cimg nhau thlic day xay dung Vdnh dai Con duang, thiet thyc thlic day hgp tac nang Iy:c san xuat va dau tu"
Oittp://www.xinhuanet.com/2018-01/ll/c_112224 6811.htm).
'"' Trong bai phat bieu t^i Le ky niem 30 nam thanh lap Dac khu kinh \h Hai Nam, Tong Bi thu, ChCi tich nuac Tap Can Binh tuyen bfl: "Trung uong Dang quy6t djnh hfl trg toan dao Hai Nam thi nghiem xay dung Khu mau dich tii do, ho trg Hai Nam timg buoc tim toi, thiic day vimg chac x3y dung Cang mau djch tir do dac sac Trung Quflc;
phan buac di, phan giai doan xay dung he thong eg che va chinh sach Gang mau dich t\r do" va cho rang "Day la quyet sach trgng dai ma Trung uong Dang neu len tren ca sa nhin nhan dai cyc phat trien trong nuac va quoe te, di sau nghien cuu, suy nghi tflng hgp, hoach dinh khoa hgc; \k bi?n phap trgng dai the hifn quyet tam cua nuac ta (tiic Tmng Quoe) trong vi?c mfl rgng cua doi ngo^ii, tich cyc thuc day toan cau hoa kinh 16", Mgng Tdn Hoa, ngay 13/4/2018 (http://www.chinanews.com /gn/2018/04-13/8490705.shtml).
khuyfln khich cac tfl chiie vd ca nhdn lam dan xin lam "chiia ddo" d cdc dao khdng cd ngudi voi thoi han 15 den 50 nam tiiy theo ITnh vyc ddu tu...*'*. Nhirng ddng thdi trfln ndra trong "dai chifln lupc" Vdnh dai Con duang va nhanh chong xdy dyng cucmg quflc bifln dupe khdng dinh trong Van kipn Dai hdi XIX. Day la nhung chu dfl nghifln cuu lom rdt cdn su phoi hpp nghien cuu cua cac cap, cdc nganh.
Ket ludn
Cupc chifln thuong mai My - Tmng do My phdt dpng da chinh thdc bat dau. Ve phdn minh, Trung Quflc da nflu Ifln lap tradng nguyfln tdc la "khflng mufln danh, khong sp ddnh, luc cdn thiflt khflng thfl khflng ddnh", dong thdi ap dyng cde bifln phap dap trd.
Nflu chi don thuan difln ra trong ITnh vuc thuang mai, thi viec hai nfln kinh tfl ldn nhat thfl gioi dfl xdy ra chifln tranh da ldm ton hai khflng chi sy phat trifln kinh tfl cua moi nude ma con tac ddng dfln sy tang traflmg kinh tfl thfl gidi. Tuy nhifln, ddy eon la sy md man cho cudc canh tranh dia chinh tri.
Vi vay, nd co the se dupe My md rpng vd phdi hpp vdi cdc ITnh vyc khdc nhu tifln tfl, ddu khi, tu do hdng hdi, chifln lupc An Dp - Thai Binh Duomg..., nham kiflm ehe su trfli day cua Tmng Quflc. Nhu vay, cupc chifln nay sfl con kflo dai, tham chi 50 ndm.
'*' Ngay 4/7/2018, Cyc Hai duang va Nghe ca tinh Hai Nam cong bo van ban mang ten Bi$n phdp thdm dinh phe chudn lcri difng khai phdi hdi ddo Ichong CO cu ddn cua tinh Hdi Nam, quy dinh: Cap quy6n sit dung dao 15 nam doi vai nufli trong thiiy hai san; 25 nam dfli vai hoat dgng du lich giai tri;
30 nam dfli vol khai thac mufli, khoang san; 40 nam doi vai hoat dgng cong ich; 50 nam dfli vdi cac cflng trinh xay dung cang khau, sua chiia tau thuyen (http://www.chinanews.com/gn/2018/07-04/
8556592.shhnl).
10 Th6ng tin Khoa hpc xa hpi. s611.201S Viet Nara la nude lang giflng cd nhiflu
diem tuong dflng vdi Trang Quoe nen rat quan tdm dfln nhung dien bifln va tac dpng ciia cupc chifln thuang mai ndy. Ngay 17/7/2018, tai cuflc hpp bao thuomg ky, ngudi phat ngfln cua Bp Ngoai giao Viet Nam Lfl Thi Thu Hdng da thfl hifln quan diflm chinh thiic cua Viet Nam: "Cac van dfl phat sinh trong quan he thuong raai giiia cac nude cdn dupe gidi quyflt thflng qua thuomg lupng, trfln ea sd cac thflng lfl, quy dinh quflc tfl, nhdt la trong khudn khd Td chuc Thuong mai The gioi (WTO), bao ddm lpi ich chinh ddng ciia cde bfln lifln quan va dflng gop eho hop tac, phat trifln thinh vupng khu vyc vd trfln thfl gidi"
(Theo: Chdu Nhu Quynh, 2018).
Chung tdi cho rang, Viet Nam rapt mat day manh hpp tde, gia tang xudt khdu sang thi tmdng Trang Quflc, gflp phdn thu hep nhap siflu trong cdn can thuong raai song phuong nhu lanh dao cdp cao hai nude da thfla thudn*'*; mat khdc edn co nhihig bifln phdp thich ling cdn thiflt dfl bao vfl chii quyfln, an ninh vd lpi ich phdt trifln eua minh. Quan he Viet - Trang va Viet - My phdt trifln Idnh manh va on dinh phii hpp vdi lpi ich cua radi nude, dong thdi gop phdn duy tai khu vuc va the gidi hfla bmh, fln dinh va phdt trifln a
<•> Tuyen bo chung Viet Nam - Trung Quoe ngay 13/11/2017 muc V ghi ro: "Phat huy vai tro ciJa iiy ban hgp tac kinh t^ - thuang mai Viet - Trung va cac ca ch£ hgp tac lien quan, thiic diy di sau phat trien quan h? hgp tac kinh tS, thuong mai, dau tu hai nuoc, thyc hi^n ciing co lgi, ciing thing giua hai ben. Thlic diy thugng mai song phuang tiep tuc phat trien can bing, on dinh, thyc hien tflt
"Ban ghi nha hgp tac song phuong trong ITnh vyc thuang mai hang nong san"" (https://vnexpress.net /tin-tuc/the-gioi/toan-van-tuyen-bo-chung-viet- nam-trung-quoc-3669742 html).
Tai li^u tham khao
1 Anh hu&ng cua cupc chien thuang mgi da bieu hiin ro ret, sai ldm cua Trung Qudc Id gi, http://www.backchina.eom /news/2018/08/0I/575219.htanI 2. Tap Can Bmh (2017), "Quyflt thing
trong xdy dyng xa hpi Idid gid toan difln, gianh thang lpi vT dai ciia CNXH dac sac Tmng Qudc thdi dai mdi" (Bdo cao tai Dai hpi XIX Dang Cpng sdn Tmng Quflc, ngay 18/10/2017), Nxb.
Nhdn ddn, Bac Kinh.
3. Tap Can Binh: Phdt bieu chue mimg tgi Li ky niim 30 ndm tinh Hdi Nam xdy dung dgc khu kinh te, Bao Tdn Hoa, ngdy 13/4/2018, http://www.chinanews.
cora/gn/2018/04-13/8490705.shtanl 4. N. Bmh (2018), Viet Nam tru&c cugc
chien thucmg mgi My - Trung: Nhieu ca hpi, ldm nguy ca, Bao Tuoi tre, ngay 8/7/2018, http;//tuoita-e.vn/viet- nam-truoc-cuoc-chien-thuong-mai- my-trung-nhieu-co-hoi-lam-nguy- co-20180708093124578.htan.
5. Chiin tranh thuang mgi Trung - My Id biiu tuang. chien tranh tien te m&i Id hgt nhdn, http://finance.sina.com.cn/
china/gncj/2018-04-06/doe-ifysuuyc 298107O.shhnl
6. Du VTnh Dinh (2018), iamr/ie'nao WTjg pho vai cupc chiin thuang mgi khong
the trdnh khoi?, Bai tra ldi phflng vdn bao Kinh te Tdi ehinh, ngdy 4/7/2018, http://yuanchuang.caijing.com.
cn/2018/0704/4480906.shtml 7. Ly Hiflu (2018), Van minh qudc gia
vd van menh cd nhdn", Bai phat biflu tai Lfl tflt nghiflp nam 2018, http://
finance.sina.com.cn/china/20l8-07-03/
doe-ihevauxi8254372.shtml
Cupc chi^ thuong mai Fffy - Tmng..
n
8. Trinh Vnh Nifln (2018), "Nhiing thach thdc mang tinh kflt cdu ddt ra trade cdi each d Tmng Quflc hifln nay", Bao Liin hap Budi sdng, Singapore ngdy 3/7/2018.
9. Ndng liec iing pho v&i xung kich tie ben ngodi cua nen kinh te Trung Quoe khong ngimg duac tdng cu&ng, Bao Kinh ti tdi chinh, ngay 9/7/2018, http://
www.chinanews.com/cj/2018/07- 09/8560803.shtml
\Q. Nguyin nhdn, dnh hu&ng, trien vpng vd ung pho doi v&i eupe chiin thuang mgi Tnmg - My , Bao Kinh te vi mo, ngdy 24/3/2018, http://finance.qq.com /a/20180324/012801.htm
11. Ngu&i phdt ngon Cue Thong ki Nhd nu&c trd l&i bdo ehi vi Tinh hinh van hdnh kinh te qudc ddn 6 thdng dau nam 2018, Mang Cyc Thflng kfl Nhd nude, ngay 16/7/2018, http://www.stats.gov.
cn/tjsj/sjjd/201807/t20180716_
1609974.html
12. Chdu Nhu Quynh (2018), Fiit Nam lin tieng ve "chiin tranh" thuang
mgi My - Trung, http://dantri.com.vn/
kinh-doanh/viet-nara-len-tieng-ve- chien-tranh-thuong-mai-my-trung- 2018071916515455.htm
13. Ma Tudn (2018), Anh hu&ng cua cupc chiin thuang mgi 50 ty USD vai kinh ti Trung Quoe Id co hgn, ca bdn da duac thi tru&ng tiiu hoa, http://eeonomy.caijing.
com.cn/20180706/4482022.shtml 14. Tuyin bo cua Bp Thuang mgi vi viec My
tdng thui doi v&i cdc sdn phdm Trung Qudc xudt khdu sang My, Mang Nhan ddn, ngay 12/7/2018, http://politics.
com.cn/nl/2018/0712/cl001-30144 224.htail
15. Todn vdn Tuyin bd chung Viet Nam - Trung Quoe, https://vnexpress.net/tin- tuc/the-gioi/toan-van-tuyen-bo-chung- viet-nara-trung-quoc-3 669742 .htral 16. http://www.ehinanews.com/gn/2018/
07-04/8556592.shtml
17. http://www.xinhuanet.com/2017-n/
14c_1121956391.htra
18. http://www.xinhuanet.cora/2018-01/
11/e 1122246811.httn
(tiip theo trang 34) Tai lifu tham khao
1. Beauvoir, Simone de (1956), TTie Second Sex, translated by H.M. Parshley, Jonathan Cape, London.
2. Peter Gay (1989), Freud: A Life for Our Time, London, http://en.wikipedia.org,
"Juliet Mitchell".
3. L. Irigaray (1985), This Sex which is not One, Cornell University Press, New York.
4. J. Mitchell (1974), Psychoanalysis and Feminism, Basic Books, New York.
5. M. Nolan, K. O'Mahony (1987), "Freud and Feminism", Studies: An Irish Quarterly Review", Vol. 76, No. 302 (Summer), pp. 159-168.
6. Nancy A. McHugh (2007), Feminist Philosophies A-Z, Edinburgh University Press Edinburgh.
7.N. Tandon (2008), Feminism: A Paradigm Shift, Atlantic Publishers &
Dishibutors (P) Ltd, New Delhi.
