BUOC D A U NHAN XET VE A N H HUONG CUA BIEN DOl KHI HAU DEN HOAT DONG
SAN X U A TNONG NGHIEP
TREN DIA BAN TINH QUANG NAM
Nguyen Thj Lieu', Mai Trgng Thong-
SUMMARY
Prelirainar)' assessements on impacts of climate change on agricultural production in Quang Nam
/;; Quang Nam. symptoms of climate change in recent years have been quite clearly shown, especially the increasing of temperature, the reduction of rainfall and the increase of frequencies as well as inlensiveness of natural disasters such as storms, floods, droughts... Those changes of climate greatly influence socio - econoiiiie activities, especially on agriculture - forestry - aquiculture. The increase of long- lasting rain that is more intensive causes landslides in mountains, river banks, coast lines leading lo the loss of some farming areas and Inhabitants ' land...
In order to adupl lo cliinate change, local inliabitanls choose many iiiiiiiediate and long-term soliilioiis. Crops have to be shifted from 3 to 2 and new hybrid rice varieties with higher dryness as well as salt suffering capacity have been used for production. Some ways of preventing floods for local inhabitants themselves and for fed animals have been applied .such as building houses ^yith attics to store properties, building high cmd durable cages for animals when floods happen...
Impacts of climate change on agriculture -forestry — aquiculture in Quang Nam province has been studied and evaluated fully in the near future.
MO DAU
Bien ddi kbi hau (BDKH) la do sir nong len loan clu, Trong vdng 50 nam qua, theo lh6ng kc nbid do Irung binh nam Ircn loan till gidi tang khoang 0,5"C, muc nude bien da dang khoang 20 cm. BDKH khdng chi lain thay doi cac gia trj cua chi sd khi hau ma cdn lam thay ddi tan suat, cudng do ciia cac bicn lugng cue doan nhu bao, nuia Idn, nang ndng,,,. Thuc tl cho thly, BDKH da kim cho cac thicn tai, nhu bao, hi hil.
ban ban nga) cang kh6c lid. Mua tap trung chii ylu vao miia mua. giam trong miia kho.
Nude bien dang do bao, trieu cudng dang lam mdt mdi nguy hiem rit Idn doi vdi san xuat va ddi sdng ciia ngudi dan vimg ven biln. Theo cac kjch ban vl biln dii khi hau da dugc cdng bd thi vao cuoi thi ky XXI, nbid do trung binh nam d Vict Nam se lang khoang 2,3°C, tdng hrgng mua nam va lugng mua tang, ngugc lai krgng mua miia kho lai giam, Muc nude biln cd thi dang lir 75cm din lm so vdi trung binh thdi ky 1980 - 199, Vdi tinh loan tren, khoang 20 - 38% dien tich ddng bing sdng Cuu Long va ding bang sdng Hong se bj ngap. Nhu viiy, biln doi kbi bau gay nguy co thu hep nhilu dien lich dai ndrng nghiep. Cac nhan djnh cho thly; doi vdi nganh ndng nghiep, bien doi khi
' I ien Phdt Irien hin vung Trung Bd 2 ]len Dia Ly. Vien KH&CN Vih Nam
838 Hdi nghi Klioa hgc Dia ly Todn qud'c lan th&S - Hd Ndi, 2010
VIEN DIA LY - VIEN KH&CN VIET NAM HOI DIA LY VIET NAM
hau cd the gay tac ddng rat Idn den sinh trudng, nang suat cay trdng, thdi vu gieo trdng, tang nguy ca lay lan sau benh ciia cay trdng va truyen djch bdib ciia gia siic, gia cam.
Ben canh dd, bien ddi kbi liiiii thong qua sir gia tang muc nude bien cfmg gay tac dgng rat Idn den he thdng thuy Igi, den ky ihuiit tudi tieu, giam kha nang lieu lir chay, tang dien tich va thdi gian ngap img, nhieu he thdng thuy igi sc khdng dap irng dugc )eu cau ludi lieu,
Trong qua trinh tham gia nghien ciru dir in "Danh gia tac dgng ciia bicn d6i khi hau den dieu kidi tir nhicn, mdi trudng va phat trien kinh te - xa hgi d Trung Trung Bd Vid Nam" do Vien Dja ly cbii tri thuc hidi, chimg tdi da thuc bicn mgt sd chuyen dieu tra, khao sat, phdng van cdng ddng, thu thap tai lieu, sd lieu ve van de anh hudng ciia bidi ddi khi hau den san xuat ndng nghiep o' tinh Quang Nam. Tir ket qua thuc te nay, cluing tdi da cd mgt sd nhan xcl budc dau ve thuc trang ciia bicn ddi khi hau va anh hudng ciia nd den san xuat ndng nghiep d tinh Quang Nam trong khoang 10 nam trd lai day,
1. BIEU HIEN CUA BIEN DOI K i l l LIAU TREN DIA B A N TINH Q U A N G NAM.
Quang Nam la mgt tinb thudc dai dat ven bien mien Trung, la mdt tinh ma Irong nhfrng nam qua, dac b i d la khoang hon 10 nam trd lai day da phai hirng chju rat nhieu nhfrng tham boa do thien tai mang lai, lam cho ddi sdng nhan dan dat Quang ngay cang trd nen khd khan va mat dn djnh.
Theo nhiin xet ciia ngudi dan dja phuong tbi d Quang Nam trong khoang 10 nam, lir nam 2001 den nay, kbi bau-tbdi tiet tren dja ban tinh Quang Nam cd nhieu sir thay doi rat rd rd va khdng dn djnh.
- Ve nhiet do; nbid do cd xu hudng tang len. Xuat hien nhieu ngay c6 nhiet do len den 37° - 38°, nang gat ban, Ihdi gian nang keo dai ban,.., Vi the, trong tinb tinh trang ban ban xay ra thudng xuyen ban (mirc do, thdi gian ban ban deu gia tang va kh6ng theo quy luat nao nfra) lain cho viec san xuat ndng nghiep, dac bid la cac vu liia xuan he va he thu bj nhfrng thid bai rat Idn,
- Lugng mua; nhin chung krgng mua trong nam giam, nhung lai tang kha manh vao cac thang miia mua, Su gia tang krgng mua vao miia mua chii yeu do cd su gia tang cac hinh the thdi t i d gay mua nhu bao, front lanh, dac bid la cac hinh the kel hgp gifra hai hinh the gay mua luiy, Hau qua la da lam gia tang lfi kit, iing ngap tren dien rdng, gay anh hudng Idn den san xuat ndng nghiep, nhat la ddi vdi cay trdng, vat nuoi (huyen Niii Thanh each day khoang 10 nam thi lugng mua khoang 3000 mm/ nam thi nay chi con khoang dudi 2000 nim/nam, Tai huyen Dai Lgc, theo quan sat ciia ngudi dan thi neu trudc day 5 luini mdi cd lu kit 1 lan thi nay tinh tir 2005 da xay ra 2 dgt ki vdi quy mo va cudng do rat Idn),
- Mdt sd hidi tugng dang luu y khac nhu; nude bien dang len khoang 20cm so vdi trudc day, nen mdi khi cd mua Idn gay ngap thi nhfrng khu vuc ven bien bj anh hudng manh me nhit, lam cha dien tich dat d va canh tac deu bj ngap chim trong nude bien va bj man boa trong mdt thdi gian dai, Ben canh dd, tinb trang sat Id bd bien, bd sdng cung diln ra kha manh, gay tdn that Idn den dat san xuat va dat d ciia ngudi din.
Hdi nghi Klioa hgc Dia ly Toan qudc lan th&S - Hd Ndi, 2010 839
2. NHAN XET BU'OC D A U VE A N H H U O T N G CUA BIEN DOI KHI HAU DEN HOAT D Q N G S A N X U A T NONG NGHIEP 6 TINH Q U A N G NAM.
Theo bao cao ciia sd Ndng nghiep va Phat trien Ndng thdn tinh Quang Nam thi tir nam 2000 den nay, san xuat ndng nghiep bj anb hudng manh me ciia sir bien ddi khi hau, thai lilt. Co thi dua ra mgt sd vi du lam dan chimg;
-I- Trong nam 2001 mua nhieu va keo dai trong vu ddng xuan da lam chain lien do oieo trong cay mau, nang suat ciia mdt sd cay trdng rat thap. Vao vu he thu, nlng none keo dai tir thang 4 din thang 10 gay anb hudng rat manh trong giai doan trd ciia lua, dan din nang suat giam siit dang ke,
+ Trong nam 2002, khi hau thdi tid dien bien pbii'c tap, dau vu ddng xuan mua Idn ga)' ngap img nhieu nai, lain giam tien do gieo xa cac gidng kia. Sang vu he thu, nlng ndng keo dai nhieu ngay, nhiel do cao ban trung binh nhieu nam gay hai nghidn Irgng tren didi rdng va keo dai lam gia lang xam nhap man vao cac huyen phia Bac ciia tinh, Trudc tinh hinh thdi tiet bien d6i nay, tinh binh sau benh cfmg dien ra rat manh me. nhieu loai sau va cac bdih cay trong da xuat hien va tan pha mdt didi lich Idn cac gilng kia gay that thu dang ke ve nang suat,
-I- Trong nam 2006, khi bau thdi tid rat bat lgi, Sd lugng bao va ap thap nhid ddi nhieu lion cac nam, dac bid con bao sd 6 (Xang Sane) la con bao manh da dd bg true tiep N-ao khu virc Quang Nam, gay thiet bai rat Idn ve tai san, co' sd ha tang san xuat ndng nghiep. Vii d6ng xuan bj anh hudng nang ne do mua keo dai va ket thiic mugn. \'LI be thu bj kho ban nang, keo dai da lam cho xam nhap man tien sau vao d6ng rugng, dan den nhieu noi bj tre vu hoac kb6ng san xuat dugc,
+ Trong nam 2007, tinb hinh thdi liet cung dien bien rat phirc tap. Do anh hirdng ciia con bao sd 5 va sd 6 tren dja ban tinh da lien tiep xay ra 8 dgt mua Idn, lam xual hidi 8 dgt lu Idn, gay ngap kit sau tren didi rgng chua tiing cd d Quang Nam. Thid hai do lii kit da dien ra rat Idn d bau bet cac huyen tir mien mii den ddng bing. Mien tugng Id dat, lfi qud, sat Id bd sdng, bdi kip rudng vudn dien ra rat nghiem trgng. Nhilu ca sd ha tang, tai san, hoa mau ciia nhan dan bj cuon trdi. Tong thid hai vl vat chll len den khoang 200 ngan ty ddng.
+ Trong nam 2008, tinh hinh bao, ki kit da gia tang dang kl. Da xay ra 5 dgt mua ki Idn vao thdi gian cuoi nam. Cac dgt mua lu xay ra vao thdi gian gieo xa vu dong xuan, gay ngap iing ban h d vimg ddng bing ciia tinb va lain 30 ngan ha kia d6ng xuan bj ngap. K d bgp vdi dd la djch benh tren gia sue, gia cam cung phat triln va phat sinh rat manh. Ngoai ra, mdt dgt mua Idn kco dai vao trung tuln thang 5/2008 da gay hu hai mdt dien tich cay trdng rit Idn cho vu xuan he. Thien tai, khi hau, thdi tilt bat Igi cung da anh hudng rat Idn den nudi trdng, khai thac va cbl biln bai san vao nira diu nam 2008.
+ Nam 2009 la nam cd nhfrng biln ddng va thdi tilt manh nhll d tinh Quang Nam. Dien binh la con bao sd 9 dd bd true tilp vao tinh Quang Nam vao thang 9/2009.
Day la con bao manh nhat tir trudc din nay da gay lu vugt mdc ljch sir nam 1999 va nam 2007. Thid hai ve nong, kim nghiep va thuy san vd ciing Idn. Khoang 1000 ha liia he thu, 2,400 ha kia nirong riy va tren 7,600 ha rau mau bj hu bdng hoan toan, Khoang 346,000 gia cam va 1500 gia siic bj nirdc cuon trdi. Khoang 14.000 ba cay lam nghiep b! gay do va khoang 4 trieu cay an qua tren loan tinb da bj gay dd va hu hong. Doi vdi
840 Hdi nghi Klioa hgc Dia ly Toan qud'c la'n th&S- Ha Ndi, 2010
VIEN DIA LY - VIEN KH&CN VIET NAM HOI DIA LY VIET NAM
nuoi trdng thuy san cd tren 400 ha ao nudi bj ngiip nude va hu bai hoan toan. He thdng thuy lgi Cling bj tdn that nang ne. Khoang 985.000 iii^ dat da ciia bang tram he thong
|<cnb niuo'ng, 12.400ni dat da de ngan man, ke sdng, kc bien bj sat Id; 3000 cong tudi, cong dudi de ngan man bj hu hdng hoan loan; 20 dap dang kien cd va 550 dap thdi vu va ban kien cd bj hir bdng niing.
Kbi hiiu trong vimg cd sir thay ddi trong nhfrng nam qua nhu nbid do, lugng mua, bao, ki kit, han ban, ntrdc bicn dang,... da lam cho qua trinh san xuat ndng nghiep cua ngudi dan gap nhieu khd khan va chju thiet hai h d sire nang ne. Cd the ndi ndng nghiep la nganh himg chju bau qua manh me nhat va bj anh birdng tren dien rdng, N I U chi tinh rieng huyen Dai Lgc nam 2009 tbi tdng thid hai do thien tai udc tinh tren 800 ty dong (rieng co'n bao sd 9 thid bai tdng cdng trong huyen len den 654 ty ddng). Do gia tang ki lut sat Id dat, tinb trang xdi mdn va riia trdi .xay ra manh da lam mIt di mdt so dien tich dat ndng nghiep. 0 vimg mii ciia tinh didi tich kia nuang ciia dong bao dan lgc Cor, Xe dang, Co Ddng cfing bj suy giam dang ke do sir gia tang ciia hidi tugng sat Id dit, hi qud.
Sir tac ddng manh me ciia qua trinh bidi ddi khi bau tren dja ban tinh Quang Nam trong boat ddng san xuat ndng nghiep cdn the hien d phuang dien tac ddng din ca clu miia Vll cay trdng. Neu nhu trudc day loan tinh deu cd 3 vu liia la vu ddng xuan, he thu, xuan he thi tir nam 2001, tinb Quang Nam chi cd the phat trien 2 vu cbinh la vu ddng xuan (keo dai tir 20/12 den 20/4), vu he thu (tir 20/5 din 30/9). Nguyen nhan cbinh gay ra su thay ddi ca cau miia vu nay lien quan den nhfrng bien ddng rat Idn ve lii kit va ban han da xay ra trong loan tinh. Thdi tiet bien ddng da budc san xuat ndng nghiep ciia tinh phai thay ddi thdi vu vi cac gidng cay trdng, trong dd dua gidng kia lai de thay the cho cac gidng kia trudc day.
Tinh rieng giai doan 2003 - 2008, san lugng luang tbirc cd bat tang giam khdng In djnh. Neu nam 2003 san lugng dat 534,1 nghin tin thi din nam 2008 cdn 527,1 nghin tan (giam 7 nghin tan). Trong dd rieng thdc giam la 26 nghin tan cimg giai doan.
Mgt so huydi do nam sat bien nen cfmg chju thiet hai kha nang ne do su bien ddi khi hau mang lai (nhu bao, lu kit,...). Trong sd nhung huyen dd cd the ke den huydi Dai Lgc, giai doan 2003 - 2008, san lugng va dien tich trdng lira ciia huyen lien tiic giam xuong.
Bdng 1. Sdn lugng Ida nude huyen Dgi Lgc giai dogn 2003 - 2008 (ha)
San luong
2003 53.486,0
2004 48.916,4
2005 47.303,2
2006 48.347,3
2007 47.757,7
2008 47,667,2 Ngudn: Nien gidm thong ke huyen Dai Loc, 2008 3. MOT SO GlAl P H A P LTNG PHO CUA NGUOI D A N DOI VOI BIEN DOI KHI HAU TRONG HOAT DONG S A N X U A T NONG NGHIEP.
* Trong trdng trgt
- Thay ddi ca cau miia vu cho phii bgp vdi nhu'ng thay ddi ciia thai tid khi bau trong nhung nam gan day.
Neu nhu trudc day khi bau it co sir thay ddi thi ngudi dan trong toan tinh deu ap dung giai phap phat trien 3 vu kia trong ndng nghiep dd la vu ddng xuan, he thu va Vll xuan he, nlurng nay tren loan tinh chi ap dung trdng liia 2 vu ddng xuan \a he thu,
Hdi nghi Khoa hoc Dia ly Todn qud'c lan th&S - Hd Ndi, 2010 841
bd qua \ u xuan he. Rieng 2 vu ddng xuan va he thu thi hien nay cung lai cd it thay dii.
do la; vu d6ng xuan dugc liii 1 thang (trudc day vao ngay 20/11 thi bat dau gieo va cay cho din 20'3 tbi thu hoach na) den nga) 20/12 mdi bat dau cay va gieo kia de tranh ret)
\ a \ ao \ 11 he thu bat diu Irudc 1 tluing (trudc day, bat dau vu \'aa 20/6 va thu hoach vao 30/10 tbi na\' bit diu cl) va gieo vao 20/5 \ a thu hoach vao 30./9 de tranh lfi). Nhu vay tren loan dja ban da ap clung ljch thdi vu gi6ng nhau nham tao ra viec san xuat co tinh chll ddng bg dl mang lai k d qua cao.
- D I irng phd lai nhfrng khd khan do thai tiet mang lai thi trong nhfrng nam qua dia phuona cfing ap dung mdt so nhfrng bien phap nhu; su dung gidng mdi cd kha nang chju ban \ a chju kit, cho nang suat va san lugng cao (gidng Huang Giang, X123,...), dam bao an ninh luong thuc; ddng thdi, tang didi tich gidng cd chat lugng gao cao nhu HTl dl dap irng nhu clu ciia thj trudng. Quan ly chat che viec tuan thii thdi vu quy djnh \'l miia vu. giong. Ben canh dd chinh quyen dja phuong lien tue md cac ldp huan luydi cho ngudi dan vl kT thuat phong tranh IPM (phdng djch benh tdng hgp) va phuong phap ICM (chuong trinh phdng chdng djch bdih cd su tham gia ciia cong ding), dl bg cd the ap dung va thuc hidi tdt trong tirng bg gia dinh trong qua trinh san xull \ a kjp thai ung phd vdi nhfrng tham boa ciia tu nhien no'i da)'. Mdt giai phap nu'a cfing CO tac dung Idn ddi vdi nhan dan trong viec irng phd vdi thien tai dd la giai phap di dan lain thdi va di dan vmh vien. Day dugc xem la each ung phd lain thdi moi khi dja phuong luio dd chju anh hudng nang ciia bao va lfi lut, nham muc tieu duy nhat la dam bao an toim cho ngudi va ciia d nhfrng vimg thudng xu)'en bj tac ddng trirc liep ciia ki lul.
- Ben canh do, de khac phuc va lani giam mirc do xdi mdn va trugt Id dat va ban ban \a nham nang cao thu nhap va chat lugng cugc sdng ciia minh, nhan dan dja phuang trong nhfrng nam gan day cfmg dang day manh cdng tac trdng rirng kinh te va rirng phdng bd ven bien de chdng cat bay, chdng bao,.. (d cac huyen mien mii, ngudi diin da clui) en ddi ca cau cay trdng; trdng cay keo thay cho mdt sd cay trdng hoa mau.
Tai xa Tam Hoa trong nam 2009 do dugc dau tu vdn ciia td chuc JICA nen da trong mdi 320 ba riing phdng bd ven bien,,..).
* Trong chan nudi
Mdt trong nbii'ng giai phap dang bat dau dugc thuc bien de phdng ch6ng hi hit d vimg ven bien la ngudi dan da lam chudng cao, kien cd cho gia siic, gia cam. Ben canh do, tinh da tap trung chi dao hidi muc tieu chan nudi an loan djch benh, phat tridi dich vu bao hiem vat nudi, xay dung co sd giet md gia siic gia cam tiip trung, cam cac CO sd gict md nhd le boat ddng; thuc bien kilm soat gilt md va kilm djch dgng vat, thuc bidi tdt cong tac tiem phdng, Xay dung dilm vimg an toan djch benh, Tao dieu kidi phat trien cac co sd chan nudi theo binh tbirc gia trai, nudi cdng nghiep, Bd tri dii ngudn lire de thuc hien cac phuong an chii ddng phdng chdng djch cha vat nuoi, dac bid la sau nhfrng dgl hi lut Idn khi moi trirdng song bj d nhidn nang,
KET LU.4N
Bien ddi khi hiiu ma bieu bicn ro nhat la sir gia tang ca ve cudng do lan quy mo llidi gian va khdng gian ciia mgt sd bicn tugng thien tai nhu bao kit, ban ban, nang nong,.. trong 1 - 2 thap ky gin da)' da va dang gay nhfrng tac ddng xlu din boat dong sail xiiii nong nghiep tai tinh Quang Nam, Trudc thuc trang dd, tinh Quang Nam da dua ra nbieu giai phap irng phd vdi biln dii kbi bau nhlm ban cbl nhfrng tac ddng tieu cue den san xual ndng nghiep nhu; thay ddi ca clu miia vu, ndng ljch, giong cay trong vat nuoi,,. Nhiing giii phap nay da dem lai bieu qua cao trong phat triln kinh te - xa hgi cua
842 Hdi nghi Khoa hgc Dia ly Toan qud'c lan th&S - Ha Ngi 2010
E:
VIEN DIA L'r - VIEN KH&CN VIET NAM '_ HOI DjA LY VIET NAM
tinb, dd la an ninh luong thuc van dugc dam bao, gia trj bang hda nong nghiep van gia tang, lang trirdng trong nganh ndng nghiep van dat dugc su dn djnh.
Nluing nhiin xcl vc anh hudng ciia bien ddi khi hau tren day ki nhfrng ket qua budc dau trong qua trinh nghien ciru, danh gia tac ddng ciia bien ddi kbi hau den boat dgng san xuat ndng - lam - ngu nghiep d tinh Quang Nam ma cluing tdi da va dang thuc hidi trong thdi gian sap tdi.
T A I L I E U THAM K H A O
1. Ban chi buy phdng chdng hit bao tinb Quang Nam. Bdo cdo tinh hinh thien tai vd trien khai nhiem vu phdng chdng lut, bdo cdc nam tir 2001 den 2009.
2. Diio Xuan Hgc (2009). Bien ddi khi hdu tdc dgng den ndng nghiep vd ndng thdn rdi h'rn.
3. Pham Khdi Nguyen (2009). Viet Nam cd nhirng hanh ddng quyet liet de iing phd vdi hien ddi khi hdu. Tap chi Co hdi de thay ddi, 2009.
4. Nguyen Du'c Ngu' (2008). Bien ddi khi hdu, nha xuat ban Khoa hgc va Ky thuat.
5. Nien giam thdng ke tinh Quang Nam 2008 6. Nien giam thdng kc huydi Dai Lgc 2008 7. Niiin giam thdng kc huyen Niii Thanh 2008
8. Sd Ndng nghiep va PTNT, Quang Nam. Bao cao ldng ket san xuat ndng nghiep nam 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008.
Hdi nghi Klioa hgc Dia ly Toan qud'c lan th&S-Hd Ndi, 2010 843
