Day manh xuat khau hang cong nghe cao cua Viet Nam
Tom t^t
Nghiin cffu nhdm ddnh gid finh hinh xudt khdu hdng cong nghe cao (CNC) cua Viet Nam trong giai dogn 2000-2017. Ket qud nghiin cffu cho thd'y xudl khdu hdng CNC ciia Viet Nam trong tbdl gian qua dd dgt duac nhffng ke't qud quan trgng, chiu sff tdc dpng cua cd 3 ye'u td gom; Tdc dpng cdu; Tdc dpng cdu triic; vd Ndng luc cgnh tranh. Trong cdc yi'u td tren. sff ddng gdp chu ye'u di'n tff viec ndng cao ndng luc cgnh tranh cda cdc sdn phdm CNC. tie'p theo Id sU dnh hudng cua tdc ddng cdu vi sdn phdm.
Tii khoa: xudt khdu, hdng cong nghe cao, FDI Summary
This study aimes to assess the situation of Vietnam's high-lech exports over the period 2000- 2017. The outcomes show that Vietnam's high-tech exports have achieved important results over the years, and been affected by demand impact, structural impact and competitiveness. Among the three above factors, competitiveness of high-tech products creates the strongest influence, followed by demand impact.
Keywords: exports, high-tech products. FDI
GIOITHIEU
Trong nhtfng nam qua, eung vdi vide hpi nhap manh me vaonenkinhte'thd'gidi, tang ctfdng thu hut vd'ndau ttf ntfdc ngoai (FDI), cd ca'u xua't khS'u cua Viet Nam da cd stf chuyan bie'n rd ret. Ty trpng hang CNC trong long gia tri xua't kha'u hang hda lang manh ttf dtfdi 10% trong giai doan 2000-2009 ldn de'n ti'dn 35% nam 2017. Cun;^
vdi do, xua'l khau hang CNC cua Viet Nam cung da dtfdc mcf rdng de'n nhieu thi trtfdng khac nhau, dac bidt la nhffng thi trtfdng khd tinh, nhtf: Hoa Ky, EU, Nhat Ban... Nhd dd, thi phan xua't khau hang CNC cua Viet Nam trdn thd' gidi dtfde tang len dang kd'.
Tuy nhidn, xuat khau hang CNC eua Vidt Nam trong thdi gian qua van cdn boc Id nhieu ban ehd', nhtf: cdn phu thupc nhi^u vao doanh nghiep FDI, tap trung vao mot so' it mat hang, nhtf: didn, didn ttf, thie't bl vidn Ihong (chid'm trdn 60%), thi trtfdng xuat kha'u hang CNC chtfa dtfdc da dang, ma ehi lap trung vao Trung Qudc, Hoa Ky va Han Qud'c, nhi^u hang CNC chtfa cd ldi thd' so sanh... Dilu nay dan dd'n xuat khau hang CNC cua Vidt Nam tbdi gian qua edn nhieu rui ro, dac bidt la trong tinh hinh thtfdng mai toan cau rat 'Trtfdng D?i hoc Kinh te va Quan tn kinh doanh, D?i hpc Thai Nguyen
Ngdy nhdn bdi: 08/12/2019; Ngdy phdn bien: 18/12/2019. Ngdy duyet dang- 24/12/2019 nhay cam vdi cudc chid'n thtfdng mai gitfa Hoa Ky va Trung Qudc hidn nay.
Vi the', vide nghien ctfu ihtfc trang xua't khau hang CNC eua Viet Nam thdi gian qua dd' tim ra ra cae giai phap thuc day la rat can thid't.
'B
lg PHUONG PHAP NGHIEN CU'U Nghien ctfu s^ dung dtf lieu ehudi thdi gianttf nam 2000 de'n 2017.
Do sd lieu ve xuat khau hang CNC cua Vidt Nam tff nam 2000 dd'n 2017 cua Tong cue Hai quan khong day du, ndn tac gia thu thap va tinh toan tff sd lidu cua Ngan hang Thd'gidi (WB).
KET QUA NGHIEN CCu Thffc trgng xuat khdu hdng CNC cua Viet Nam
Trong nhtfng nam qua, xua't kha'u hang CNC cua Viet Nam da dat dtfdc
84
nhffng Ihanh ttfu ndi bat, la diem sang trong boat ddng xua'l khau chung cua Viet Nam. Xuat khiu hang CNC cua Vidl Nam cd the cbia thanh 2 giai doan rieng bidt:
Giai dogn I bdt ddu tff ndm 2000 den 2009. Trong giai doan nay, kim ngach xuat khau hang CNC chie'm ty trpng dao dpng khoang 5% trong tdng kim ngach xuat kha'u hang hda cua Viet Nam. Gia tri xuat khau hang CNC tang ttf 0,81 ty USD nam 2000 ldn 4,8 ty USD nam 2009, dat td'c dp tang trtfdng binh quan hang nam la 16,5%.
Giai dogn 2 bat ddu tff ndm 2010 di'n nay, vdi gia tri xuS'l kha'u hang CNC tang manh. Cu the', ty trpng hang CNC trong tdng kim ngach xua't khau hang hda ciia Viet Nam tang nhanh ttf 10,6% nam 2010 Idn 32,4% nam 2017. Gia tn xua't khau hang CNC tang gin 10,7 lan, dat td'c do tang irtfdng binh quan hdn 47%
trong giai doan 2010-2017 (Hinh).
Bang 1 thdng kd 15 qud'c gia va viing lanh thd la thi trtfdng nhap khau ldn nha't ciia hang CNC cua Viet Nam nam 2017.
Nhdm 15 qudc gia, vung lanh thd nay deu cd gia tn nhap kha'u hang CNC eua Viet Nam dat trdn 1,3 ty USD. Trong dd, Trung Qudc la qud'c gia nhap kha'u nhieu nhat hang CNC cua Viet Nam vdi 16,5 ty USD, cao hdn ca 2 quo'c gia dtfng thtf 2 va thiJ 3 cdng lai la Hoa Ky va Han Quo'c. Trung Qud'c eung la quo'c gia cd tdc dd tang trtfdng nhap khau hang CNC binh quan dat gan nhtf cao nha't trong giai doan 2005-2017 la 53,3%. Ngoai Trung Qud'c, cac ntfdc, nhtf: Ao, Thd NhT Ky va Cac tieu vtfdng quo'c A Rap Tho'ng nha'l cung cd mtfc tang trtfdng nhap khau hang CNC dat binh quan tren 50% trong giai doan 2005-2017.
Co thd' tha'y stf phat trid'n manh me trotig xua't khau cae san pham thupc nhdm hang CNC ciaa Viet Nam trong giai doan 2005-2017 (Bang 2). Tuy nhien, xuat kha'u cac san pham thupc nhdm hang CNC cua Vidt Nam cdn tap trung vao mdt sd' san pham chu life. Mpt so ma san pham, nhtf: 524, 712, 718 cd gia In xuat khau trong giai doan 2005- 2017 rat thap, chi dtfdi 15 tridu USD.
Cdn iai, cac san pha'm khac deu ed td'c do phat trid'n binh quan dat trdn 100%/
nam (tang trtfdng dtfdng) cho ca giai doan nghidn ctfu. Mot so' ma san pha'm, nhtf: 751, 764, 774, 792, 871 ed loc dp tang trtfdng binh quan hang nam ra't cao
HINH: XUAT KHAO HANG CNC CGA VIET NAM GlAl DOAN 2000-2017
; . . i r i j J j J
BANG 1: 15 TH] TRtfCiNG XGAT KHAG HANG CNC L CGA VIET MAM MAM 2017
DVT: Ty USD STT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
!3 14 15
Qud'c gia/ Vung lanh th^
Tmng Quoc HoaKv Han Quo'c Hong Kong
Cac tieu VQ A rap Thong nha't Ha Lan
Ao Anh Quoc Du'c Nhat Ban Malaixia Thai Lan Phap Tho NhT Ky Mexico Tong xuS't kha'u CNC
2005 0,098 0,182 0,051 0,060 0.032 0,042 0,021 0,024 0,031 0.317 0,026 0,286 0,036 0.008 0,014 1,787
2010 0,874 0,911 0,183 0,773 0.198 0,365 0,025 0,147 0,169 0.840 0,104 0,274 0,158 0,107 0,061 7,677
2015 4.280 6,704 2,471 4,930 4,933 2.102 2.066 2,021 2,340 1,145 0,962 0.941 1,465 0,834 0,808 52,552
2017 16,551
8,778 6,209 5,532 4.257 3.608 3.526 2,411 2,363 2,150 1,865 1.796 1,443 1,378 1,376 81,331
TTBO {%) 53.31 38,10 49,14 45,85 50.49 45,01 53,55 46,77 43,64 17,28 42,80 16,53 36,08 53.28 38,08 37,46
(tren 50%/nam) cho thay, Viet Nam da va dang dap u'ng dircfc nhu cau cua thi trifcfng nhap Jdiau.
Xet ve gia tri, trong cac san pham thuoc nhom hang CNC, thi cht CO 2 ma san ph^m co kim ngach xuat khau tren 1 ty USD (ma 751 va 764) trong nam 2010. Den nam 2015, kim ngach xuat khau cija cac san pham da tang co gia tri xuat khau tren 1 ty USD da tang len 07 raa san pham (716, 751, 752, 764, 776, 778 va 881). Chi sau 2 nam, so san pham co gia tri xuat khau tren 1 ty USD, da tang len 10 ma san pham (them 03 ma 761, 771 va 871), trong do ma 871 co gia tri xuat khau tang dot bie'n trong giai doan 2015-2017.
Dang ghi nhan hOn ca v^ gia trj xuat khau cung nhu' toe dotang trifdng la ma san pham 764 (thiet bi hen lac viJn thong). Nam 2017, kira ngach xuat khau cua raa san pham nay dat gan 51,3 ty USD, tang hdn 368 lan so vdi nam 2005. Day cung la ma sdn pham duy nha't cd kira ngach xua't khau tren 10 ty USD va tang manh theo thdi gian trong giai doan 2005-2017 vdi to'c do tang trudng binh quan hang nam dat 63,6%. Ma san ph£m co gia tri xua't khau ldn thu" 2 la san pham
Economy and Forecasl Review
85
BANG 2: KIM NGACH XUAT KHAG HANG CNC CUA VIET NAM GlAl DOAN 2005-2017
M a S P 5 2 4 5 4 1 7 1 2 7 1 8 / 5 I lyi 7 5 9
/ 6 1 7 6 4 7 7 1 7 7 4 7 7 6 7 7 fi 7 9 ? 871 8 7 4 881
T 6 n g p i H o a c h a t v o c d k h a c ; h d p c h a t hiiu c o v a v o c d c u a k i m l o a i a u v T u a bin h d i M a v Dhai d i e n M a v m o c v a n c h o n s C u m XLT \<I da lieu \\i d o n ? Phli tiing m a y v a n p h o n g v a m a y xu" ly d a l i e u tlf d o n e
T i v i
T h i e t bl h e n l a c viSn t h o n e k h i c Thig't hi d e b i e n d o i , d i e u c h i n h d o n g d i e n
B o m a y co t h e x u a t cho m u c dich y hoc, h o a c thu V v a cac thiet bi X - a u a n f V a n n h i e t , v a n catS't l a n h h o a c v a n q u a n g c a t o t
M a y m 6 c t h i e t bi dCina d i e n k h a c T r a n e thie't bi m d v b a v . t a u vu tru D u n g c u q u a i i a h o c Thie't bl d o l i / d n s B o m a v c h u o a n h
2 0 0 5 0,0
0.0 1 n OT 413.4 479,6 6Q5 nq-) 133,8 0,1 241,7 70 3 1.7 11 6 n^
18.7 2 0 1 0
6.7 0.4
1635,3 189.5 3 4 6 , 7 4 4 , 0 2 6 8 7 . 9 4 2 7 , 4 6.0 4 8 8 , 9 5 2 6 , 7 ' ' 0 , 9 17.4 8 6 . ' ' 4 1 4 . 5
2 0 1 5
4 , 5 0,3
7 6 8 . 6 7 6 3 , 8 3 3 0 6 8 , 3 9 3 2 , 9 9 5 , 6 4 7 2 5 , 7 1234,8 154.2 ' , 1 .351,8 2 1 5 6 . 4
DVT- Tl 2 0 1 7
9.9 0.1
8 9 5 , 4 2 1 9 9 . 0 5 1 3 0 0 . 8 1252.5 116,8 9 3 4 9 , 0 1 9 2 5 , ' ' 3 9 4 . 8 3 0 7 7 . 2 4 8 1 , 8 2 5 0 9 , 5
eH VSD P T B Q
177,68 146.82
105,34 133.36 163,63 120,49 180,00 135.61 131,76 157.23 2 2 1 , 8 7 136,37 150,44 BANG 3: XUAT KHAG CGA VIET NAM
2000
PHAN THEO TRINH DO CONG NGHE 2017
N h o m s a n p h S V I. S a n p h a m t h S 11. S a n p h ^ m c h e b i e n 1. S a n p h a m Aria v a o t a i n g u v e n - N o n e nflhicp
- K h o a HE s a n
2 . S a n p h a m c o n g n g h ^ thS'^p - V d l , q u a n a o , siiiv d e p 3. S a n p h a m c 6 n a nahfe t r u n g b i n h - O t o
- C h e b i e n - Crt khi 4 . S a n pha°m C N C - S a n p h a m k h a c T g n g
T y t r o n a ( % ) 2 0 0 0
5 1 , 7 3 4 8 , 2 7 6,72 3,30 3 . 4 3 3 1 j l 5 26.58 4.57 4.60 0.53 1.12 2.95 S.SO 5.48 0,31 100,00
• ^ r - r - i 2010
30,12 69,88 8.92 4,81 4,12 41,01 26.96 14.05 9.23 0.95 2,76 5,53 10,71 9,87 0,84 100,00 I d c g i a
2013 21,15 78,85 8.17 4,50 3,67 32,84 24,25 8.58 9,94 1.19 3.11 5.64 27,90 26.45 1,45 100,00 tinh to
2015 15,07 84,93 7,57 4,45 3.12 35,11 26.39 8,72 9,65 1,15 2,47 6,02 32,60 30,87 1,73 100,00
2017 14.02 85.98 6.42 3,71 2,70 31,88 23,45 8,43 9,79 1,06 2,20 6.53 37.90 34,81 3,09 100,00 s 6 dii
TTBQ 2000-2017
8.74 21.47 17.09 18,23 15,79 17,57 16,55 21,71 22.75 22,32 22,14 23.05 31,13 30.90 34,34 17.41 ieu c u a WB
van nhiet (776) vdi gia tri xuat khau dat 9,3 ty USD nam 2017. Trdn cd sd cac chinh sdch day manh thu hiJt von FDI vao cac lmh vifc san xuat hang CNC phat huy tot ldi the canh tranh cua dat nu'dc trong chuSi gia tri toan cau, Viet Nam se cd th6m cac san pham khac thuoc nhom hang CNC cd gia tri xuat khau cao nhim phat trien xuat khau hang CNC gdp phan d^y manh tang trifdng kinh te cua dat ntfdc.
Bang 3 cho thay, xuat khau san pham tho giam manh tif 51,73% nam 2000 xuong cdn khoang 14%
tong gia tri xuat khau nam 2017, ngiJdc lai xuat khau
cac san pham che bien tang manh vdi ty trong trong tdng gia tri xua'l khau tang tif 48,27% Ien gan 86%. Toe dp ^kng tnfdng binh quan gia tri xua't khau san pham che bien dat 21.47% hang rikm.
Dac biet, trong khi ty trpng san ph^am difa vao tai nguydn va san pham cdng nghe tha'p hau nhtf giff nguydn trong giai doan 2000-2017, thi sa^n phS'm cong nghe trung binh va san pha'm CNC tang manh, dac biet la cac san pham CNC. ^ Danh gia cac yd'u td' tac dpng dg'n xuS't kha'u hang CNC cua Vi^t Nam
De danh gia cac ye'u td' tac dpng den xua't khau hang CNC cua Vi&t Nam, mo hinh phan tich thi phan khong doi (CMS) difdc su" dung vdi 3 yeu to tac dpng den xuat khau hang CNC cua Viet Nam la nhu cau (dd'i vdi hang CNC tren the gidi), cau true xua't khau va canh tranh giffa hang CNC cua cac quo'c gia (Fredoun, 2006).
Md hinh CMS xac dinh mu'c dp tac ddng Clia 3 nhan to' chinh nay den siJf tang (giam) xua't khau hang CNC giffa hai qud'c gia cd quan hd thifdng mai. Md hinh phan tich thi phan khong doi difdc the hien du'di dang cu the sau:
X' - x ; = ^ r + X fs, - $) XJ + s (g^^ - g) xj
Trong do;
Xj, Xf. la tdng gia tri xua't khau cua qud'c gia r thdi ky 1 va 0.
g: td'c dd tang trffdng xua't kh^u cua the gidi tff thdi ky 0 dd'n thdi ky 1.
g\ to'c dp tang trffdng xua't khau cua san pham i cua the' gidi tff thdi ky 0 dd'n thdiky 1.
g,,; tdc dp tang trffdng xuat khau cua san pham i cua qud'c gia r tff thdi ky 0 dd'n thdi ky 1.
Tff md hinh phan tich cho tha'y, quye't dinh den sff tang (hoac giam hay khdng thay dot) cua tdng xua't khau ciia qud'c gia r la do mffc do anh hffdng cu the cua cac nhan td, nhu-: tac dpng cau ve hang CNC, tac dpng ca'u true xuat khiu hang CNC hay naiig Iffc canh tranh cua hang CNC Clia quo'c gia r tai tht trffdng thd' gidi.
Bang 4 cho thay, xual Idilu hang CNC cua Vidt Nam trong giai doan 2002-2017 da dat difdc nhCfng kd't qua quan trong, chiu sU t^c dpng cua ca 3 yd'u to, gom: Tac dpng cau; Tic ddng cau true; va Kha nang canh tranh, Trong cac ye'u to' tren. su ddng gdp chii y^'u dd'n tff vide nang cao kha nang cunh iranh cua cac san pham CNC, tid'p li (,-o |^ ^^j. ^^|^
hudng cua tac ddng cau .a^ pham
86
Cac ma san pham CNC chu ye'u cd mffc tang tnfdng xuat khau manh trong thdi gian Vifa qua bao gdm: 764, 776,752, 871, 881 va 751. Dieu nky cd nghia la, td'c do tang trffdng xuat khau h^ng CNC dd'i vdi nhffng san pham nay cua Viet Nam cao hdn rat nhieu so ydi mffc trung binh tang trffdng xuat khau cua nhffng san pham cung loai tren the' gidi. Day Cling la nhffng san pham cd kim^ ngach xuat khau ldn trong nhffng nam gan d^y.
Nhff vky, cac san pham CNC cd sffc eanh tranli td't tren thi trffdng the' gidi, sffc canh tranh cua san pham co xu hffdng tang len. Trong do, dien thoai cac loai va linh kien (ma 764) cd sff tang manh ve sffc canh tranh trdn thi trffdng the gidi.
Dieu nay cho tha'y, hang CNC cua Viet Nam da dan dan dap ffng to't dffdc thi hieu cua thi tnfdng, nha't la tai thi tnfdng chau Au va Bac My la 2 thi trffdng cd quy mo nin kinh td' ldn, thu nhap binh quan diu ngffdi cao so vdi cac khu vffe khae tren the gidi.
GIAI PHAP DAY MANH XUAT KHAU HANG CNC CUA VIET NAM
Thff nhdt, phdt trien thi trudng, tan dung nhffng Uu ddi cd duac tff cdc hiip dinh FTA: Hien nay, Viet Nam da tham gia dam phan va ky kd't 16 FTA, trong do CO 12 FTA da ky ke't va di vao hieu life. Do vky, ckc td chffc, cp quan lidn quan cua Chinh phu can td chffc hieu qua, dong bd hoat dpng thdng tin, du bao tinh hinh thi trffdng hang CNC tren thd'gidi. cung nhff nSng cao hieu bie't ve luat phap, chinh sach cua cac thi trffdng nhap khau de' giup doanh nghiep nang eao nang Iffc canh tranh, tham nhap thi trffdng the' gidi hieu qua hdn.
Thff hai, hodn thien chinh sdch thu hut vdn ddu tu vdo sdn xud't hdng CNC: Ra soat, hoan thien cac chinh sach ve thu hut dau tff nham thu hut manh dau tff trong nu'dc va ngoai nffdc vao lmh vffe san xua't hang CNC, dae bidt la cac san pham CNC
BANG 4: NANG LG'C CANH TRANH CUA VIET NAM GIAI
TRONG XOAT KHAtI HANG CNC DOAN 2002-2017 MS
SP 524 541 712 716 718 751 752 759 761 764 771 774 776 778 79^
871 874 881
TSag/giam xuS't kh£u rtrigu US$1
9.7 151.1 0.1 1118.5 10.5 2881,9 3561.9 585.4 2141.7 51200.6 1209.6 115,6 9332.6 1869.^
391.3 3077.1 468.9 2492.9
Tac d$ng cSu (trieuDSSl
0.3 17.5 0.0 113.2 0.2 0.7 30.8 527,8 97.5 170.7 73.1 2,0 27,8 95.3 5.9 0.2 ''1.9 28.3
Tac dSng cfiii triic (tri^u USSt
-0.3 5.8 0.0 5.1 0.0 -0.5 -iO.7 -82.3 -48.1 -28.1 22.4 -0.2 9.3 ''0,3 -2.9 0.9 1.9 -32.8
Kha nang canh tranh ftriSu VS%)
9.7 127.7 0.1 10,4
^881.8 .^541,8 139,9 2092.3 51058.0 1114.1 113,9 9295,6 1753.5 388.3 3076.0 445.1 2497.4 l'(iiE(;n Tac gia Lmii icicin tU so
con cd gia tri xu^'t khau tha'p. Dong thdi, cd ehinh sach hd trd phat tnen eong nghiep ho trd, nang cao ty le gia tri gia tang cua san ph^m CNC. tff dd giam phu thugc vao nguyen vat lieu nhap khau.
Thff ba, ndng cao chd't lugng sdn phdm. phdt huy lai the so sdnh cua hdng CNC: Trong nen kinh td' hdi nhap qud'c te' ngay cang s^u rong hidn nay, viec nSng cao nang suS't, chat Iffdng sdn pha'm la yd'u to' quan trpng quyd't dinh sff sd'ng cdn cua doanh nghiep. Tuy nhidn, tinh trang nang suat lao ddng kem, chat Iffdng cac san pham CNC kem se anh hffdng tn^c tie'p de'n viec xua't khau mat hang nay. Do vay, trong thdi gian tdi can day manh ffng diing khoa hoe, ky thuat hidn dai vao san xua't. quy trinh quan ly hieu qua; Dau tff ddi mdi may mdc thie't bi, cdng nghd hien dai nham nang cao chat Iffdng sdn pha'm, tang cffdng dau tff cac loai may mdc thid't bi, cong nghe mdi, thie't bi hidn dai. ddng bp.
Thff tu, ndng cao chdt luang ngudn nhdn Iffc vd tdng cudng ddu tu cho nghiin cffu vd phdt triin (R&D):
Can tang cffdng chi cho hoat dpng nghien cffu va phat trien cho cac nganh cdng nghd tidn tie'n. Tang cffdng lidn kd't chat che giffa cac ben: doanh nghiep, Chinh phu va cac vien nghien cffu trong vide nghidn cffu.
phat tridn san pham, hinh thanh cac vidn nghien cffu chuydn sau dd'i vdi tffng ITnh vffe eu the; cd chinh sach thu hut nhffng nha khoa hpc cd trinh dd eao tham gia nghien cffu va cd che'dd dai ngp xffng dang vdi nguon nhan life cha't Iffdng cao.a
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO
1. Fredoun Z.A. (2006). Constant Market Shares Analysis: Uses, Limitations and Prospects, Australian Journal of Agricullural and Resource Economics, 50(4), 510-526
2. Lall, S. (2000). The Technological Structure and Performance of Developing Country Manufactured Exports. 1985-98, Oxford Development Studies, 28(3), 337-369
3. World Bank (2019). World Bank Integrated Trade Solution (WITS), access to http://wits.
worldbank.orgAVITS/
_E<:onotnv and Forecast Revu
