Quan he thutfng mai Viet Nam - Hoa Ky trong boi canh moi
LS Thi Van Nga'*>
Tom tat: Quan he thuang mgi Viet Nam - Hoa Ky phdt trien mgnh me trong nhirng ndm gdn day Ciing v&i su gia tdng kim nggch thuang mgi hdng hda hai chiiu, thdm hut thuang mgi hdng hda cda Hoa Ky v&i Viet Nam cd xu hu&ng ngdy cdng tdng nhanh.
Trong bdi cdnh m&i, du&i thai Tdng thong Donald Trump, chinh sdeh thuang mgi cua Hoa Ky hu&ng vdo muc tiiu gidm thdm hut thuang mgi vd bdo ve an ninh qudc gia; do do cd them nhieu hdng rdo thui quan, ky thudt da dugc chinh quyin Hoa Ky dung len trin danh nghia bdo vi ngu&i tieu diing, mdi truang, lao ddng. Bdi cdnh mai dem lgi nhiiu ca hdi vd cUng ddt ra nhiiu thdch thuc ddi v&i Viit Nam trong qud trinh phdt trien quan hi thuang mgi v&i Hoa Ky
Tir khoa: Thuang mai, Quan he thuang mai, Viet Nam, Hoa Ky
Abstract: Vietnam - U.S. trade relations have strongly developed in recent years. Along with the increase in bilateral trade turnover, the US. trade deficit with Vietnam has witnessed an upward trend. The U.S. trade policies under Trump's administration aim at shrinking trade deficit and enhancing national security. New tariffs and technical barriers have been applied in the name of protecting the U.S. consumers, environment and workforce. This new context has brought Vietnam both opportunities and challenges in promoting trade relations with the United States.
Key^vords: Trade, Trade Relation, Vietnam, United States
1. Khai quat thyc trang quan he thuong Viet Nam vao nam 1994. Nam 2000, Viet mai Viet Nam - Hoa Ky Nam va Hoa Ky ky Hiep dinh Thuong mai Ve gid tri xudt nhdp khdu hdng hda song phuong (BTA) va hiep djnh nay chinh giita hai nu&c _ ^ thiic cd hieu lyc vao thing 12/2001. K I tir Viet Nam bat dau phat trien quan he do trao ddi thuong mai giiia hai nude gia thuang mat vdi Hoa Ky ke tii' sau khi Hoa tang manh me. Trong giai doan 2001-2016, Ky bai bd lenh cam van thuong mai ddi vdi tdng kim ngach thuong mai hai chilu giiia Viet Nam va Hoa Ky da tang g i p hon 30 nTS.,V,cnNgh,encixuChau My, Vien Han lam ' ^ ^ ' ^ , \'f^^ ^ ^ D vao nam 2001 da len tdi Khoa hpc xa hpi VietNam; 47,1 ty USD vao nam 2016 (Tdng cue Hai Email: pflevannga@gmail.com quan, 2017).
Quan he thuong mai.. 29 Nam2017,VietNamdirngthir 12ttong kim ngach nhap khiu hang hda dat 187,5 sd cac qude gia xuat khau hang hda nhieu ty USD, tang 98,4% so vdi cimg ky nam nhat sang Hoa Ky va diing thii 31 trong sd 2018. Hoa Ky tiep tuc la thi trudng Idn cac thi trudng nhap khau hang hda Idn nhat nhat cho hang hda xuat khau eua Viet Nam, tir Hoa Ky (U.S. Census Bureau, 2018). gia tri xuat khau hang hda ciia Viet Nam Sd lieu d Hinh 1 cho thay, gia tri xuat sang thi trudng Hoa Ky trong 9 thang diu nhap khau hang hoa hai chidu giua Viet nam 2019 dat 44,65 ty USD, tang 27,6%
so vdi cimg ky nam 2018 Hinh 1: Xuit nhap khau va tham hut thiroTig mai ^^ chilm 22 9% tdng
Viet Nam - Hoa Ky giai doan 2007-2018 , . , ' A, ,,x
„ _ . ^- ,,(.r> kim ngach xuat khau Ban vi: ty USD °-
hang hda eiia Viet Nam.
Cung thdi gian dd, gia tri nhap khau hang hda ciia Viet Nam tir Hoa Ky cung tang song vdi tdc do cham han, cao hon 12% so vdi ciing ky nam 2018 (Tdng cue Hai quan, 2019).
Khdng chi thay ddi vl gia tti thuang mai hang hda, co cau xuat nhap khiu hang hda hai chidu ciing cd sy chuyin dich theo hudng tang xuat khau cac mat hang cd ham lugng cdng nghe eao va nhap khiu nhiing mat hang can thiet phuc vu cho san xuat cdng nghiep.
vi ca cdu xudt khdu hdng hda cua Viet
• • ^ u a t Khau cua Hoa K, i ^ s htiap kfiau ciia Hoa Ky -.-TtiamnuITM cua Hoa Kj voi
VietNam
Nguin: T6ng cue ThSng ke (2007, 2008, 2009) va T6tig cue Hai quan (2019).
Nam va Hoa Ky khong ngirng tang trong su6t 8 nam dirai thoi Tong thong B. Obama (2009-2016) va 2 nam diu duoi thoi T6ng th6ng Donald Trump (2017-2018). Trong hon hai nam (2017-2018), xuit khiu hang hoa cua Viet Nam sang thi truong Hoa Ky
da tang tir 38,4 ty USD nam 2016 len 41,6 Nam sang Ihi Inrmg Hoa Ky
ty USD nam 2017 va 47,5 ty USD nam Nam 2009, cac mat hang xuat khau chit 2018. Nhap khiu hang hoa cua Viet Nam yeu ciia Viet Nam sang thi trirong_Hoa Ky tir Hoa Ky tang len 9,3 ty USD nam 2017 bao g6m hang det may (44%), go va san va 12 8 ty USD nam 2018 so voi con s6 phim g6 (9,7%), giay dep (9,1%), thtiy san 8 7 ty USD nam 2016 (T6ng cue Hai quan, (6,3%), diu tho (4,1 %) (Tong cue Thong 2019). ke,2009). , ,
S5 lieu th6ng ke so bo ctia T6ng cue Nam 2018, co cau xuat khau thay do.
Hai quan Viet Nam trong 9 thang diu nam nhu sau: det may (29%), gray dep (12%), 2019 cho thiy, t6ng kim ngach xuit nhap dien thoai va linh kien dien thoai (12%), khiu hang hoa cua Viet Nam dat 382,16 g6 va san pham go (8%), may vi tinh, san ty USD, tang 8,4% so voi ciing ky nam phim dien tir va linh kien (8%), may moc, 2018. Trong do, kim ngach xuit khiu thiSt bi, dung cu va phu tiing khac (7%), hang h6a dat 194,65 ty USD, tang 8,4% va v.v... (Tong cue Hai quan, 2019).
30 Thong hn Khoa hoc xa h6i. so 1.202U Hang ddt may ludn dugc coi la mat
hang xuat khau ehu lire va chiem ty ttgng cao nhat ttong sd cae mat hang xuat khau ciia Viet Nam sang thi trudng Hoa Ky (Tdng cue Hai quan, 2019). Theo sd lieu ciia Bd Cdng thuang nam 2014, hon 75%
san pham xuat khau trong ITnh vuc det may eiia Viet Nam la gia cdng. Hang det may xuat khau cua VietNam cd ham lugng cdng nghe thap, cd gia tri gia tang thap (Bd Cdng thuong, 2014), song trong nhieu nam qua mat hang nay van ddng vai trd quan trgng thiic day xuat khau ciia Viet Nam. Gan day, mac dii xuat khau det may va da giay van ddng vai ttd chu dao song c a cau xuat khau ciia Viet Nam da ehuyen sang hudng giam xuat khau nguyen lieu thd va hang sa che, tang dan xuat khau hang gia cdng va nhdm hang thidt bi dien tir ed ham lugng cdng nghe cao va gia tri gia tang Idn hon.
Vi ca cdu nhdp khdu hdng hda cua Viet Nam tir thi truong Hoa Ky
Nam 2009, eac mat himg nhap khau chii yeu cua Viet Nam bao gdm: go (37%), bdng (16,8%), phu heu thude la (16,6%), sat phe lieu (13,26%),... (Tdng cue Thdng ke, 2009).
Nam 2018, co cau nhap khau hang hda cua Viet Nam tir Hoa Ky thay ddi nhu sau: may tinh, cae san pham dien tir va linh kien (24%); bdng (12%); may mdc, thiet bi va dung cu (8%), v.v... (Tdng cue Hai quan, 2019). Phan Idn hang hda nhap khau chinh ciia Viet Nam tir thj trudng Hoa Ky la hang dien tir, may mdc thiet bi va nhirng nguyen phu lieu can thiet phuc vu san xuat cdng nghiep. Nhu vay, co cau hang hda nhap khau cua Viet Nam tir Hoa Ky dang chuyen dich theo hudng gia tang hang che tao va linh kien nguyen phu lieu phuc vu san xuat cdng nghiep (Tdng cue Hai quan, 2019).
2. Chinh sach thuong mai ciia Hoa Ky va nhirng rao can thuong mai doi vdi Viet Nam trong boi canh mdi
Nam 2009, Tdng thdng B. Obama len nham chuc trong bdi canh Hoa Ky vira ttai qua khiing hoang tai chinh va suy thoai kinh te nghiem trgng. Theo Chuang trinh nghi sir thuang mai nam 2009, nhung uu tien chinh sach thuang mai ciia chinh quydn Tdng thdng Obama bao gdm: hd trg xay dung he thdng thuong mai dua tren cac nguyen tac thi trudng tu do, tang cudng trach nhiem xa hgi va su minh bach chinh tri cua chinh sach thuang mai, chinh sach thuong mai phai trd thanh cdng cu quan trgng de dat dugc cac muc tieu ve nang lugng va mdi trudng, cac hiep dinh thuong mai phai giai quyet dugc cac van de do xung dot thuang mai gay ra, minh bach hda cac hiep dinh thuang mai va dau tu song phuang hien cd, tiep tuc duy tri cac cam ket md rgng quan he thuong mai vdi cac qudc gia dang phat tridn (Office of the United States Trade Representative, 2009). Nhin chung, dudi thdi Tdng thdng Obama, ehinh sach thuang mai eiia Hoa Ky tap trung vao cac bien phap thiie day xuat khau, thuc day viec thyc thi cac quy dinh thuong mai ciia WTO, eiia cac qudc gia thanh vien, va dam phan cae thda thuan thuong mai song phuong va da phuong.
Tir thang 01/2017, sau khi len nham chirc, Tong thdng Donald Trump da eo nhiing didu chinh dang k l v l each ttip can va bien phap thuc hien chinh saeh thuong mai dua tren eac tru cdt: (i) Tai can bing quan he thuang mai thdng qua viec hd ttg bao dam an ninh qudc gia; (ii) Dam phan lai cae hiep djnh thuong mai "da ioi thdi va khdng cdng b i n g " ; (iii) Thuc thi manh me Luat Thuong mai eua Hoa Ky; (iv) Bao ve lgi ich ciia Hoa Ky tai Td ehiic Thuang
Quan he thuong mai... 31 mai Thi gidi (Office of the United States
Trade Representative, 2017).
Tren co sd dd, Tdng thdng Donald Trump da tuyen bd nit khdi Hiep dinh Ddi tac xuyen Thai Binh Duong (TPP), dam phan lai thda thuan thuang mai Hiep dinh Mau dich tu do BSc My (NAFTA) vdi Canada va Mexico, dam phan lai Hiep dinh Thuong mai tu do (FTA) vdi Han Qudc (KORUS), dam phan ve cac vin dl thuang mai vdi Lien minh ehau Au (EU), ehuyen sang dam phan cac FTA song phuong nham tao lgi the hon ve thuong mai. Ddng thdi, vdi ly do nham dam bao an ninh qudc gia va thuc thi Luat Thuong mai Hoa Ky, Chinh phii Hoa Ky tang cudng kiem soat xuat khau cae mat hang anh hudng tdi an ninh qudc gia, tien hanh didu tra va danh thug theo Dieu 232 va Dieu 301 Luat Thuang mai, ap dung nhieu bien phap chdng ban pha gia va ty ve thuong mai. Chinh quyen ciia Tdng thdng Donald Trump da ap dat thud quan cao hon ddi vdi hang hda nhap khau tir Trung Qudc va cac nudc (Mildner, 2020). Trong dd, Trung Qudc la ddi tugng dugc chii trgng hang dau trong chinh sach thuong mai ciia Hoa Ky, dan den nhiing cang thang trong quan he thuong mai Hoa Ky va Trung Qude ngay cang leo thang.
Tli thang 4/2018, chidn tranh thuang mai My - Trung biing phat sau khi Tdng thdng Hoa Ky Donald Trump tuyen bd ap dung gdi thue doi vdi 50 ty USD hang hda tir Trung Qudc dua tren ca sd Dieu khoan 301 Luat Thuong mai Hoa Ky nam 1974 (Biesheuvel, 2018). Sau dd, Trung Qudc va Hoa Ky lien tuc danh thue tra dua lan nhau.
Do Hoa Ky va Trung Qudc deu la nhimg ddi tac thuang mai quan trgng cua Viet Nam nen nhiing dien bien cang thang trong quan he My - Trung tir nam 2018 den nay
chac chan cd anh hudng nhit dinh ddi vdi cac doanh nghiep va nln kinh tl Viet Nam.
Ddi vdi Viet Nam, vin dl tham hut thuong mai da nhieu lin dugc Chinh phii Hoa Ky de cap den ttong eac cudc hdi dam chinh thiic giira hai nudc. Vdi sic lenh chdng tham hut thuong mai duge Chinh phii Hoa Ky cdng bd vao thang 3/2017, Viet Nam dugc xac dinh la mdt ttong 16 qude gia ma Hoa Ky cd tham hut thucmg mai hang hda Idn nhit.
Trong hai nam dau dudi thdi Tdng thong Donald Trump, nhilu hang rao thui quan, ky thuat, cac tieu chuin eao ddi vdi hang hda nhap khau da dugc chinh quyln Hoa Ky dat ra nham muc tieu giam miic tham hut thuong mai hang hoa. Dieu dd, ciing cd nghTa la hang hda Viet Nam xuit khau sang Hoa Ky dang va se phai ddi mat vdi ngay cang nhieu kho khan. Cac sd Heu ve thuc trang quan he Viet Nam - Hoa Ky d phan trudc eho thay nhiing thanh tuu tich cue ddi ben, tuy nhidn ttgn thuc tg, cac doanh nghiep Viet Nam khi xuat khau cac mat hang cd thg manh sang thi trudng Hoa Ky phai ddi mat vdi nhieu bien phap chdng ban pha gia, cae bien phap canh tranh khdng lanh manh.
Thic nhdt, vdi danh nghTa bao vd ngudi tieu diing, mdi trudng, lao dgng, Hoa Ky da dua ra cac dao luat, cac tieu ehuan ky thuat doi vdi hang hda nhap khau. Vi du: thue chdng lin tranh, cae dao luat gay nhieu rao can cho hang xuat khau nhu Luat Lien bang vl an toan thyc phim (FSMA), Dao luat Ndng nghiep (Farm Bill) dugc cu thg hoa bing chuang trinh thanh tra ca da tran ciia Bg Ndng nghiep Hoa Ky (ban hanh thang 3/2016), Dao luat Laeey, Chuong trinh Bao ve thyc vat va kilm djch, Dao luat Bao ve thuc vat va cae quy dinh khac. Ngoai eac luat Lien bang cdn co nhung quy dinh rigng
32 Thong tin Khoa hpc xa hoi. 56 1.2020 ciia timg tieu bang. Cac tteu chuan eao dugc
dat ra, ke ca cac tieu chuan mdi nhu dam bao yeu td mdi trudng va sir dung ngudi lao dgng tai doanh nghiep nude xuat khau.
Thu hai, hang hda xuat khau ctia Viet Nam thudng xuydn phai ddi mat vdi nguy eo bi khdi kien chdng ban pha gia, chdng trg cap va cac rao can thuang mai nhu chuang trinh thanh tra ca da tron, eac quy dinh mdi ciia dao luat hien dai hda an toan thyc pham, v.v... Cac san pham det may, da giay, thuy san, cae mat hang dien thoai, may vi tinh, do gd, do gia dung, v.v... xuat khau sang thi trudng Hoa Ky cung phai ddi mat vdi cac bien phap bao hd thuong mai nhidu hon.
Nam 2017, Hoa Ky khdi xudng 23 vu vi^c ttong sd 124 vu viec ve phdng ve thuong mai ciia nudc ngoai ddi vdi Viet Nam. Hoa Ky ciing la qudc gia co ty le ap thud chdng ban pha gia cao nhat ddi vdi hang hda xuat khau ciia Viet Nam (Xem: Bd Cdng thuong, 2018a). Chang han, cac mat hang thuy san Viet Nam, nganh hang cd ty ttgng xuat khau cao eiia Viet Nam, chiu anh hudng manh me bdi cac bien phap phdng ve thuang mai cua Chinh phu Hoa Ky (Xem them: Dien dan Doanh nghiep, 2018). Tuy nhien, ngay 10/9/2018, Bg Thuang mai Hoa Ky ban hanh ket luan so bg ciia dot ra soat hanh chinh lan thii 14 (P0R14) cho giai doan xuat khau tu ngay 01/8/2016 ddn ngay 31/7/2017 ddi vdi san pham ca tta, ca basa ciia Viet Nam xuat khau sang thi tnrdng Hoa Ky, theo dd, miic thue so bd cho hai bi don bit buoc la 0 USD/kg va 1,37 USD/kg; thui suat cho eac hi dan tu nguydn la 0,41 USD/
kg; thue suat ttdn toan qudc la 2,39 USD/
kg (Bg Cdng thuang, 2018b). Miic thui nay thap hon rat nhidu so vdi ket qua cua cac dgt ra soat trudc do. Ben canh do, sau khi tang thue chdng ban pha gia ddi vdi tdm ciia Viet
Nam ttong nam 2017 va diu nam 2018, den thang 9/2018, Bd Thuong mai Hoa Ky da cdng bd miic thui chdng ban pha gia cudi eimg ddi vdi tdm nhap khiu tir Viet Nam la 4,58%, thap ban 5 lan so vdi miic dy kien ban dau (Huynh Tam, 2018). Nhu vay, sau mdt thdi gian chiing lai, xuat khau thuy san ciia Viet Nam sang thi trudng Hoa Ky da cd nhirng dau hieu kha quan hon khi eac miic thud ehdng ban pha gia dugc cdng bd ddi vdi ca tta, ca basa va tdm ciia Hoa Ky da giam dang ke.
Hoac nhu viec Hoa Ky ap thue nhap khau cao ddi vdi thep, nhdm tir tat ca cac qudc gia cung it nhieu anh hudng tdi xuat khau ciia Viet Nam. Gia tri xuat khau cac mat hang sat thep tdi thi trudng Hoa Ky chi chiem khoang tten 10% tdng gia tri xuat khau cae mat hang sat thep cua \^et Nam, do do viec Hoa Ky tang thue nhap khau thep va nhdm cd anh hudng tieu cyc tdi doanh thu ciia eac doanh nghiep xuat khau sap thep d Viet Nam, ban the niia nd cdn anh hudng tidu cyc tdi cae doanh nghiep san xuat che tao dya ttgn nguygn lieu dau vao la sat thep.
Thang 5/2018, Bd Thuong mai Hoa Ky da quydt dinh danh thue nhap khau ddi vdi cac san pham thep cua Viet Nam cd ngudn gdc tli Trung Qudc. Hoa Ky da ap thui chdng ban pha gia va chdng ttg cap ddi vdi san pham tdn ma va thep can ngudi nhap khau tii Viet Nam do ed ngudn gdc tir Trung Qudc.
San pham tdn ma phai chiu mirc thud ehdng ban pha gia va chdng ttg cap lan lugt la 199,43% va 39,05%. Trong khi do, thep can ngudi phai chiu 2 loai thue tten d miic lan lugt la 256,79% va 256,44% (Xem them:
Trung tam WTO, Phdng Thuang mai va Cdng nghiep Viet Nam, 2018). Tuy nhien, cac doanh nghiep xuat nhap khiu thep d Viet Nam van e6 the dugc mign giam thui neu chiing mmh san pham cua hg dugc san
©uanhemuorngmai..
33 xuat bang cac nguyen vat lieu ed ngudn gdc
hi Viet Nam hoac bit cii qudc gia nao ma khdng phai ttr Trung Qudc.
Thep la mat hang dugc xem xet phdng vd thuong mai nhilu nhit d Viet Nam, kl ca xuat khau va nhap khiu. Thep ehdng gi ya thep can ngudi ciia Viet Nam xuit khiu sang Hoa Ky tang lin lugt 1.332%
va 916% trong khoang tir thang 12/2015 eho din thang 4/2019. Thang 5/2018, Bd Thuong mai Hoa Ky danh thud chdng ban pha gia va thui chdng trg eip gin 260%
ddi vdi san pham thep can ngudi san xuit d Viet Nam nhung sir dung vat lieu tu Trung Qude. Ngay 03/7/2019, Bg Thuong mai Hoa Ky tuyen bd ap dat miic thud mdi Idn den 456,23% ddi vdi thep chdng gi, thep can ngudi nhap khau tir Viet Nam va ea nguyen lieu nhap khau tir Han Qudc, Dai Loan de san xuat hai loai thep tren vi nghi ngd hai qudc gia nay da ttanh thui khi liy Viet Nam lam trung gian xuat khau sang Hoa Ky (Huyin Trang, 2019).
3. Nhung Cff hoi va thach thuc trong quan he thuong mai Viet Nam - Hoa Ky
Xu hudng phat ttien quan he thuang mai Viet Nam - Hoa Ky se cdn tiep ttie trong tuong lai, mac du cang thang thuong mai cd the van chua lang diu. Bdi canh mdi dem lai cho Viet Nam ca nhiing co hgi va thach thiie ttong viec phat trien quan he thuong mai vdi Hoa Ky.
a) Ca hdi ddi v&i xudt khdu hdng hda eiia Viet Nam
Thir nhdt, do hang hda xuat nhap khau cua Viet Nam va Hoa Ky sang thi trudng ciia nhau cd tinh chat bd trg nen thuong mai hai chidu giira hai nudc van cd the tiep tuc tang. Hoa Ky cd nhu cau Idn ve nhap khau cac mat hang ndng san hoac nhiing san pham hang hda ma Viet Nara cd the manh dua tren lgi thd ve dieu kidn tu nhien.
nhan edng va nguyen vat lieu nhu cac san pham det may, da giay, may mdc thilt bi dien tii. Trong khi dd, Viet Nam cd nhu ciu nhap khau cac loai may mdc, thilt hi cdng nghe cao, thiet bi hang khdng, vidn thdng, v.v... phue vu cho san xuit edng nghigp, dap ling cho qua trinh tang trudng kinh tl vdi tdc do eao.
Thu hai, eac doanh nghiep Viet Nam cd CO hdi da dang hda ngudn cung, nang cao chat lugng hang hda va cai thien eae dilu kien tidp can thi trudng Hoa Ky. Trong bdi canh cang thang quan he thuong mai giiia Hoa Ky va Trung Qudc, eac doanh nghigp Hoa Ky tang cudng tim kiem nguon cung tir Viet Nam dl bii dip cho su thilu hut tir thi trudng Trung Qudc. Dieu nay ed thi tao co hpi cho su phat trien d Viet Nam. Theo sd lieu cua Tgp chi Nikkei, do anh hudng eua chien tranh thuong mai My - Trung, din thang 7/2019, da cd 50 cdng ty da qudc gia bao gdm ca nhiing hang ten tudi eua Hoa Ky nhu Apple, Sketchers USA, HP, Dell chuyen hoat ddng san xuat ra khdi Trung Qudc va mgt sd trong dd cd thd chuyen boat dpng san xuat sang Viet Nam (Hoshi, Nakaffuji& Cho, 2019).
Thu ba, eo hdi dich chuydn ddng vdn dau tu cua Hoa Ky tir Trung Qudc tdi Viet Nam do anh hudng cua cang thang quan he thuong mai My - Trung. Cae qude gia cd cdng nghe phat trien nhu Hoa Ky, Nhat Ban, Han Qudc mong mudn tim mpt dia diem dl diu tu dai han vdi cac ttdu ehi phii hgp vl mdi trudng the che, thi trudng lao ddng,..., trong dd Viet Nam la mpt diem din diu tu tilm nang, dac biet khi cang thing thuong mai giiia Hoa Ky vdi Trung Qudc leo thang.
Mac dil diu tu tryc tiep cua Hoa Ky vao Trung Qudc nam 2018 dat 116,52 ty USD, tang 8,96% so vdi con sd 107,56 ty
34 Thong Hn Khoa hoe xa h0i, s61.2020 USD nam 2017 song tdc dp tang da cham
lai, tdc dp tang dau tu ciia nam 2017 so vdi nam 2016 la 10,27% (Statista, 2019).
Mdt nghidn ciiu dang tten China South Morning Post vao thang 5/2019 cho rang, trudc nhirng dign bien cang thang ciia chien tranh thuang mai My - Trung, tde do tang dau tu cua Hoa Ky vao Trung Qudc dau nam 2019 cd xu hudng giam, dya trdn sd lieu thuc tg cho thay dau tu eiia Hoa Ky vao Trung Qude trong 4 thang dau nam 2019 chi tang 24,3%o so vdi cung ky nam 2018, giam so vdi tdc do tang 71,3%
ttong quy 1/2019 (Wang, 2019). Them vao dd, theo hang tin Bloomberg, Nha Trang dang can nhac ban che danh muc dau tu cua Hoa Ky vao Trung Qude, trong dd can nhac giiia cac lua chgn: loai bd cac edng ty Trung Qude khdi cae san giao dich chiing khoan cua Hoa Ky va ban che dau tu ciia Hoa Ky vao thi trudng Trung Qude thdng qua cac quy huu tri ciia Chinh phii (Leonard & Doman, 2019).
b) Nhirng thdch thirc
Thir nhdt, sy gia tang cac bien phap phdng ve thuang mai, nang eao eac tieu chuan ve mdi trudng, lao ddng va chat lugng hang hda tir Hoa Ky khien cho eac doanh nghiep Viet Nam gap nhieu khd khan hon trong viec tham nhap thi trudng nay. Nhieu san pham ciia Viet Nam xuat khau sang Hoa Ky ed nguy co cao bj Hoa Ky ap dung thud chdng ban pha gia, trong dd nhiing mat hang cd san lugng lin kim ngach xuat khau Idn vao Hoa Ky nhu thiiy san, ddt may, da giay, dd gd, thep,... cd kha nang bj anh hudng nhieu nhat.
Thu hai, trong bdi canh chien tranh thuang mai My - Trung, hang hda ciia Trung Qude se tran vao thi trudng Viet Nam nhieu hon vi eac doanh nghiep ciia Trung Qudc bi anh hudng bdi thue quan
cao ciia Hoa Ky ed t h i tang cudng tham nhap thi trudng Viet Nam, ban nguyen lieu d at eho cac doanh nghiep san xuat cua Viet Nam.
Thu ba, hang hda ciia Viet Nam xuat khau tdi thi trudng cua cac qudc gia khac tten the gidi ed kha nang phai ddi mat vdi sy canh tranh Idn hon, dac biet la cac nudc trong khu vye Ddng Nam A va ehau A, vi hang hda cua Trung Quoc khdng tham nhap dugc vao thi trudng Hoa Ky se chuyen sang cac nudc chau A lan can.
Them vao do, cae mat hang npi dia Viet Nam vdn da phai canh tranh vdi hang hda cua Thai Lan, Trung Qudc nay lai cang canh tranh gay gat hon.
Thii- tu, su giam gia cua ddng Nhan dan td Trung Qude khidn hang hda ciia Viet Nam ndi chung va dac biet la mdt sd mat hang xuat khau chii lyc ciia Viet Nam nhu det may, da giay se phai ddi mat vdi sy eanh ttanh gay gat eiia hang hda Trung Qudc do ciing cd lgi the xuat khau.
4. Mot so khuyin nghi
Mac dil quan he thuong mai Viet Nam - Hoa Ky cd thd van duy tti theo chieu hudng phat trien trong thdi gian tdi, song bdi canh mdi dang dat ra nhiing thach thiic khdng nhd ddi vdi nen kinh te va cac doanh nghiep Viet Nam. Trong thdi gian tdi, cac bien phap bao hd thuong mai va nhiing rao can ve dau tu ed the tiep tuc tang, vi vay, Viet Nam cin luu y mdt sd v i n d l sau:
Thif nhdt, Viet Nam can hoan thien he thdng phap luat vg thuang mai qudc t l va nang cao trinh do ngudn nhan lyc nhim chu ddng ddi phd vdi xu the phdng ve thuang mai, xu the bao hd cua Hoa Ky.
Thir hai, Viet Nam cin luu y d i n nhirng van d l ma Chinh quyln Trump thudng xuyen nhac ddn nhu kinh t l nha nudc, quyen ciia ngudi lao ddng, quyen sd hiiu
vuan ne muong mai... 35 tti tue, v.v... Theo dd, Viet Nam cin tilp
tyc thiic day phat ttiln cac khu vuc kinh te sd hiiu theo hudng tieh cue phii hgp vdi chu truang va dudng Idi eua Dang; cai each nham nang cao tinh minh bach ttong cac van de thucmg mai va dau tu nhu lao ddng, sd hiiu tti tue dl ttanh bj sir dung nhu la ly do de Hoa Ky ap dat cac bien phap bao hd ddi vdi hang hda nhap khau; tao mdi trudng kinh doanh minh bach nhim tang cudng thu hiit dau tu cua Hoa Ky vao Viet Nam.
Thir ba, cac doanh nghiep Viet Nam can ddi mdi quy trinh san xuat theo hudng dau tu vao nhap khau cdng nghe cua Hoa Ky nham muc tieu phat tridn san xuat cac mat hang cd gia trj gia tang cao, ddng thdi ciing giam bdt ap luc chdng tham hut thuang mai cua Hoa Ky; can cd cac bien phap nang cao ehat lugng san pham hang hda, ddi mdi quy trinh san xuat theo tieu chuan cao hem nham dap iing yeu cau va tieu ehuan ngay cang cao ciia Hoa Ky va thj trudng cua cac ddi tac thuong mai chit ydu.
Thu tu, Viet Nam can tiep tuc cai thien eo sd ha tang, chuan hi tdt hon cac didu kien de thu hiit, tiep nhan lan sdng dau tu chat lugng cao, dau tu vao cong nghiep phu trg va eac ITnh vue khac, hoan thien khung khd luat phap ve mdi trudng va lao ddng dd han chd nhiing rui ro ddi vdi doanh nghiep dau tu trong nudc.
Thu ndm, Chinh phii va cac doanh nghiep Viet Nam can chii ddng tim kiem cac thi trudng mdi cho hang hda xuat khau, giam su phy thude qua nhieu vao cae thj trudng Idn. Trong bdi canh Viet Nam dang tham gia tich cyc vao qua trinh dam phan va ky ket cac FTA vdi cac thj trudng Idn trong khu vyc va tren the gidi nhu Hiep dirih Thuong mai ty do Viet Nam - EU va Hiep djnh Ddi tac Toan dien va Tien bg xuyen Thai Binh Duong (CPTPP), Viet
Nam se cd thgm ca hdi gia nhap nhiing thj trudng mdi, md ra nhiing co hdi mdi thiie day boat ddng thuang mai, gop phan thiic day tang trudng kinh te.
Trong bdi canh chien ttanh thuang mai giua Hoa Ky va Trung Qudc vin tilp diin, Viet Nam can kigm soat ehat ehe hang hda xuat nhap khau de ttanh tinh ttang hang gia, hang lau anh hudng Idn din lgi ieh qudc gia, quan ly chat ehe hoat dgng nhap khiu hang hda hi Trung Qude. Ngoai ra, cin phan tich nhiing tac ddng tieu cyc ttr eudc chiln thuang mai My - Trung, dac biet tac ddng eiia ddng Nhan dan te Trung Qude dang cd xu hudng giam gia, gSy bat lpi cho hang hda xuat khau eiia Viet Nam.
5. Ket luan
Trong nhiing nam gan day, quan he kinh tg giiia Viet Nam va Hoa Ky da cd nhiing buoc phat ttien quan trpng vdi viec ky ket Hiep dinh Thuang mai song phuong nam 2001, Viet Nam gia nhap WTO nam 2006 va hai qudc gia dat dugc Tuydn bd chung ve xae lap quan he ddi tac toan dien vao nam 2013. Tir day, quan he hgp tac kmh tg giiia hai nudc dugc ky vgng se dugc thiic day manh me.
Nhin chung, quan he thucmg mai Viet Nam - Hoa Ky da phat trign va md rdng manh me ttr nam 2001 den nay. Trong bdi canh nhiing cang thang thuang mai toan ciu va sy gia tang cac bien phap phdng ve thuang mai cung nhu cac hang rao ky thuat ciia Chinh phii Hoa Ky, eae doanh nghiep va nln kinh tl Viet Nam cd thdm nhiing ca hdi mdi song cung phai ddi mat vdi nhieu vin dl thach thiie trong tuong lai. Vi vay, trong thdi gian tdi, Chinh phii va cac doanh nghiep Viet Nam cin phan tich, danh gia tinh hinh dl dua ra nhung giai phap huu hieu nhim tan dung nhirng co hdi cd dugc va vugt qua nhiing thach thiic, dua quan he
36 Thong tin Khoa hoc xa hoi. so 1.2020 thuong mai Viet Nam - Hoa Ky ngay cang
phat trign Q Tai lieu tham khao
1. Biesheuvel, Thomas (2018), As China Fires Back in Trade War, Here Are the Winners And Losers, https://www.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04 -04/as-ehina-fires-back-in-trade-war- here-are-the-winners-and-losers 2. Bd Cdng thuang (2014), Det may Viet
Nam. Hdng gia cdng "Idn sdn ", https://
congthuong.vn/det-may-viet-nam-hang -gia-cong-lan-san-9935.html, truy cap ngay 20/1/2019.
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4. Bd Cdng thuong (2018b), DOC ban hdnh quyet dinh sa bp rd sodt thui chdng bdn phd gid Idn thu 14 ddi v&i cd tra-basa cua Viet Nam, hrtps://moit.
gov.vn/tin-chi-tiet/-/chi-tiet/doc-ban- - h a n h - q u y e t - % C 4 % 9 1 i n h - s o - b o - % - C4%91 ot-ra-soat-thue-chong-ban-pha- - g i a - l a n - t h u - 1 4 - % C 4 % 9 1 o i - v o i - c a - -tra-basa-cua-viet-nam-12943-401 .ht- ml?fbclid-IwAR2ktY761LLY53kem- C B u Z r O Y g 7 B 4 y x q n r w U L p D y s y I J - QEYqM5rLslgMHSs8
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enternews.vn/my-ap-thue-chong-ban- pha-gia-cao-gap-10-lan-voi-ca-tra-viet- nam-126297.html
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s t e m - m a n u f a c t u r i n g - e x o d u s - a s - 5 0 - eompanies-Ieave
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file810_15401.pdf
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gov/sites/default/files/files/reports/20111 AnnualReport/Chapter%20I%20-%20 The%20President%27s%20Trade%20 Policy%20Agenda.pdf
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statista.com/statistics/188629/united -states-direct-investments-in-china- since-2000/
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