KiNH TE Dl PHirONG
oPhan tich moi quan he npi vung vung kinh te trpng diem Bac Bp daa tren
bang l-O vung dqng phi cqnh tranh
NGO VAN PHONG BUI TRINH
^ ^ di viet cap nhdt lgi hdng I-O vilng dgng phi cgnh tranh cho ndm 2007 theo miic dich
^ ^ nghien cdu, viin^ kinh te trgng diim Bac Bd vd 27 ngdnh. Tii nhiing ket qud tinh todn, cdc tdc gid de xudt ba kien nghi dm vdi viing kinh te trgng diim Bdc Bg ve ndng cao hiiu qud ddu ttt, ve dinh hitdng thu hut ddu tU trite tiip nttdc ngodi vd ve chinh sdch Uu tiin phdt trien ddi vdi mgt so nhom ngdnh.
Tfi k h o a : liin ket vitng; viing kinh te trgng diem Bdc Bg; kinh tephdt trien.
thuyd't k i n h te' va tfi dd p h a n tieh rapt each tdng t h e n e n k i n h te'.
Md h i n h 1-0 la cdng cu p h a n tieh dinh Ifidng dfia t r e n b a n g I-O. B a n g 1-0 bit ngudn tfi nhflng y tfidng trong cuon 'Tfi 1. Tong q u a n m o h i n h I-O'
"Mpt ngfidi ndng ddn b d n g p h e p t i n h ddn gian ed t h e bie't dtfdc sfi d u n g ngtfa hay may kee hidu qua hdn cho efing viee ddng ang, nhtfng a n h ta h a y btft ky ai t r e n t h e gidi cung khfing t h e t i n h dtfdc tac ddng cua vide t h a y the' ngtfa b l n g m a y keo den gia ea eua ngua va mdy keo b a n r a trfin t h i trudng, hodc sfi' lUdng r a u qua b a n r a t a n g Idn bao nhieu khi ngfidi tidu d u n g dfidc hfidng ldi tfi viec giara chi phi b i t ngudn tfi sfi t h a y t h d nay."^
Trong rapt ndn kinh te', moi h d n h vi, mfli vide lam cua tfing ca n h a n deu a n h hfidng rapt each vfi t i n h hoac ed chu dinh de'n ldi ieh cua nhflng cd n h a n k h a e . N a m 1906, khi Pareto viet nhflng ddng t r e n , qua t h a t chfia rapt phfidng p h a p dinh Ifidng nao cd t h e t i n h dfidc a n h htfdng q u a Iai bat ngudn tfi nhflng t h a y dfi'i gay n e n bdi mpt bode n h i l u tac n h a n t r o n g hoac ngodi mpt nen kinb td. P b a i de'n ndm 1936, khi nhflng hang I-O d l u tifin r a ddi eac n h a nghien cfiu radi thfic Men dtfdc d i l u nay. Cung ehinh nbd co mfl h i n h I-O raa ngfidi ta b i t d l u g i n ket dfidc nhflng con sd t h d n g ke, nhflng dfl lifiu vdi Iy
b a n ' cua K.Mac k h i fing tira r a radi quan hd trfie tie'p theo quy l u a t ky t h u a t gifla cae yfi'u td' thara gia q u a t r i n h san xutft. Tfi ttfdng n a y eua dng s a u dd dtfdc Wassily Leontief (Nobel k i n h td, 1973) p h a t trien b a n g each toan hpe hda toan dien quan he cung - c l u t r o n g t o a n n i n kinh te.
Leontief coi mfli cdng nghd s a n xud't la mpt mdi q u a n he t u y d n t i n h gifia so Itfdng san p h a r a dtfde s a n xutft r a va cac san pham v a t cha't vd dich vu lam ehi phi d l u vao.
Md'i lien h e n a y dtfde bidu dien bdi rapt he t h d n g h a m tuye'n t i n h vdi nhflng hd sd dfidc quye't d i n h bdi q u y t r i n h edng nghe.
Ngfi Vfln Phong, Bfi Cflng thuong; Biii Trinh, Ti^ng cue Thfing kfi.
1. Tham khao bflo cflo sfi 4 trong hfii thao v^ " Tac dfing cua hfii nhflp kmh xi qufie lfi" dfi'n n^n kinh tfi - tai chinh Vifit Nam" Bfi I U Chrnh, Melia Hotel Hanoi, April, 10-2007.
2. V. Pareto, 1906.
54
Phan tich mdi quan ^
Vdi tfi t u d n g n a y , b a n g I-O d a u tifin dfidc W. Leontief xay dfing cbo Hoa K^ la b a n g I-O n d m 1919 va 1929, h a i b a n g n a y dfidc ldp n a m 1936; ndra 1941 edng t r i n h n d y dfidc xutft b a n vdi t e n gpi "Ctfu t r u e cua ndn k i n h t e H o a Ky". Ngay n a y , md h i n h I-O dfidc x e m nhfi t r u n g t d m cua H e t h d n g tai khoan qudc gia cua Lien hdp qud'c (SNA),
xutft b a n n a m 1968 va n a m 1993.
2. B a n g I-O d a n g p h i c a n h t r a n h ( n o n - c o m p e t i t i v e - i m p o r t t y p e ) . Trong h e thfi'ng SNA, bang I-O mo t a chi tie'p ctfu true ehi phi vtf ludng ehu chuyen s a n p h a m theo nganh. Sd do tfl'ng q u a t eua b a n g I-O rfit gpn dupe md t a trong bang 1 dfidi day:
Nganh
1 2 3 VA
Gl
BANG 1: B a n g I-O r t i t g o n l o a i c a n h t r a n h ( c o m p e t i t i v e - i m p o r t t y p e ) Cdu trung gian (hoac tieu
d u n g t r u n g gian)
1
x„
Xi,
x„
V, X|
2
X|2 X22
x„
V , Xj
3
x„
X B
x„
V, X,
Cau cuoi cung
C
c, c.
Q G
G, G, G,
I
1, Iz I,
E
E l E2 E3
-M
-M,
- M J
Thue' nhap khiu Ti T I T,
G O
x. X; X ,
Bang 1 la b a n g I-O r u t gon loai canh tranh: gia sfi cho 3 nhdm n g a n h Idn cua ndn kinh tfi', bao gdm
Nhdm n g a n h 1: nfing nghiep, lam nghifip va thuy san;
Nhdm n g a n h 2: edng nghiep khai thae, cflng nghifip che' bid'n va xay dfing;
Nhdra n g a n h 3; cae nhdra n g a n h dieh vu.
Bang I-O loai canh t r a n h cd nghia cac phan ttf cua ctfu t r u n g gian vtf cau cud'i cung bao gdm ca nhdp k h a u va thud' n h a p khau;
Xij; t h e hien quy mfl s^ dung san p h a m loai i Iam chi pM t r u n g gian trong qua t r i n h san xutft ngtfnhj;
Ci: t h e hien tieu dung cudi eung eua ca n h a n s a n p h i m loai i;
Gi: tieu dung cud'i cfing cua n h a nUdc san phtfm i;
Ei: xutft khtfu san phtfm i;
Mi: n h a p khtfu san pham i;
Ti: thue' nhap khdu cua san p h a m i;
Vj: la gia tri t a n g them nganh j ; Xi: la gia tri san xutft cua nganh i hoac tdng chi pM san xutft eua nganh i.
Cdc quan he cd bdn:
+ X„+X,2 + X.3 = IC, (1) 0 day IC, la tifiu dung t r u n g gian v l san phtfm i, hay ndi each khac la tfi'ng etfu t r u n g gian eua san phtfm i.
+ Xi, + X,. + X3, = II, (2) O day II, la cM pM trung gian cua n g a n h i^.
De tie'p tue hinh thfic hda, ta dat:
3. Hifin nay mfit sfi nha kinh tfi', k^ ca ngucri ctia CO quan Thong ke Vifit Nam vfln nhflm chi phi tmng gian cua nganh vfl tifiu diing trung gian ciia san ph^m.
Thuc vfly, d^ $ rflng, trong khi IC, (tfing tifiu diing trung gian cua san ph£m) vl ban chflt vfl tri sfi la khac II, (chi phi trung gian ciia nganh i).
Phan tich mdi quan he
Yi = Ci + Gi + Ii + E i - M i (7) Va: Ai] = Xij/Xj (8) Thay (7) va (8) vao (5), t a cd :
Ail.Xl + Ai2.X2 + Ai3.X3 + Yi = Xi (9) He phfidng trinh (9) vidt lai theo dang ma t r a n cd dang:
A.X + Y = X (10) Tfi quan he (10), t a cd:
X = a-A)-'.Y (11) trong do,
A la ma t r a n h e so cM p h i t r u n g gian, cae p h a n tfi eua ma t r d n A Id Aij ;
X Id vec-td gid t r i san xutft, Y la vec-td etfu eudi cung.
Quan he (11) dfidc goi Id q u a n h e Leontief, ma t r a n nghich dao (I-A)"^ dfidc gpi la ma t r a n nghich dao Leontief. M a t r d n nay Ifidng hda y niem cua Keynes k h i t h a y ddi rapt ddn vi cua cau cufl'i cung se a n h hfidng lan tda ddn s a n xutft eua eae n g a n h trong nen k i n h te' la bao n h i e u . Ngoai ra, d h a u b i t cdc ntfdc t r e n thfi' gidi sfi dung quan he Leontief de Ifia chpn nhflng n g a n h t r p n g didm eua n e n k i n h tfi'.
de k h i n h u ctfu cudi e u n g ( s a n p h a m cu6i cung) c u a n g a n h dd t a n g Ifin se Mch thich m a n h ca n i n k i n h t e p h a t t r i e n thflng qua md'i q u a n h e lien n g a n h . Vd nhfi vdy quan h e cua Leontief d a lUdng hda dfidc y niem ve «kich e l u » c u a K e y n e s .
T u y nhifin, nfi'u de y se tha'y trong loai b a n g I-O canh t r a n h ehi ndi dfidc rafit each c h u n g c h u n g Id k h i t h a y dfi'i v l nhu cau cud'i cung ve mot s a n p h a m nao dd se ddn de'n nhflng t h a y ddi c u a cung. Nhfing trong k h i dd lai khflng chi r a dfidc vific thay ddi n h u c l u eudi eung de'n s a n xutft trong ntfdc la bao nhifiu va k i e h t h i e h n h a p k h i u la bao nhifiu. Nhfi v a y ne'u sfi d u n g loai bang I-O d a n g c a n h t r a n b n h i l u khi cd the din de'n nhflng n h a n d i n h k h d n g d u n g va do do cd t h e dd r a c h i n h s a e h s a i lam, nhfi se chi d a n de'n t a n g v l n h a p k h a u . Do do, de p h a n tich s a u va td't hdn, d n sfi dung b a n g I-O d a n g p h i e a n h t r a n h (non- competitive-iraport type) nhfi trinh bay dfidi day:
Sd do cd b a n cua b a n g I-O dang phi canh t r a n h ed dang tdng q u a t r u t gpn nhfi sau:
BANG 2: B a n g I-O r u t g o n l o a i p h i c a n h t r a n h ( n o n - c o m p e t i t i v e - i m p o r t type)
Nganh 1 2 3 Nhap khau Thue'nhap kh^u
VA GI
cau trung gian (hoac tieu diing trung gian) 1
x'„
x*,, x*,,
Mf,
F , V, X,
2
x",.
X'22 x - j . M", V, V,
X2
3
x'„
X'a
x",,
NP, V,
V J
X J
cau cuoi ciing C
c, c.
e.
Mc Tc
G G",
a\
G ' j
Mg Tg
I
I ' l
I",
1*3
M, T,
E E, E,
E3
GO
X, X, X, M T
Trong b a n g I-O r u t gpn dang phi canh t r a n h t a t ca cae p h l n tfi eua eau t r u n g gian va e l u eudi eung da dfidc t a c h r a d u
la s a n p h a r a t r o n g ntfdc, h a i cdt am ve n h a p k h a u va t h u e n h a p k h i u khfing ton t a i t r o n g k h i 2 d d n g n h d p khtfu va thue
5 6 Nghiin cdu Kinh tff sff 440 - Thing 1/Z
Phdn ti'ch mdi quan he ,
n h d p khtfu dtfdc t a c h r a d day:
X^ij: la quy rad n g d n h j sfi d u n g s a n p h a m s a n xud't t r o n g nfidc i t r o n g q u a t r i n h san xutft;
C i: t i e u d u n g cuoi cung s a n p h I r a i s a n xutft t r o n g nudc;
G^i: t i e u diing cud'i eung s a n p h a m i s a n xutft t r o n g nUdc;
1*^1: tieh Ifly tai s a n Id s a n p h a m i s a n xutft t r o n g nudc;
Ei: xud't k h a u s a n p h i m i;
M**!: s a n p h a m i sfi d u n g s a n p h a m n h a p k h a u i a m chi p h i t r u n g gian t r o n g q u a t r i n h san xutft s a n p h i m cudi cung i;
Mc: tdng n h a p k h a u eho t i e u d u n g cud'i cung eua ca n h d n (hd gia dinh);
Mg: tdng nhtfp k h a u eho t i e u d u n g cudi cung cua n h a nfidc;
Mp tdng tich luy la s a n phtfm n h a p khtfu;
T^i, Te, Tg, TJ: khi (nganh) s a n phtfm i sfi dung s a n p h a r a n h a p k h a u Idra chi pM t r u n g gian, s a n phtfra n h d p k h i u ndy k h i qua efia k h i u hi d a n h thue', t h u d n h d p k h i u eung vdi n h a p khtfu di vdo q u a t r i n h san xutft vtf sfi d u n g cud'i cung, va k h o a n ndy p h a i dUdc t a c h khdi chi phi t r u n g gian cung n h u ctfu cud'i cung.
Q u a n hd cd b a n :
Trong d a n g I-O phi c a n h t r a n h , q u a n he (10) dupe vie't lai dfidi dang:
(A"* + A'").X -I- Y^ + Y" -M= X (12) -> A**. X + Y" + A-^.X + Y" - M = X (13) d d a y :
A"*. X Id vec td chi phi t r u n g gian s a n phtfra dfidc s a n xud't t r o n g nfidc;
A"'.X la vee td chi phi t r u n g gian la s a n p h i m n h d p k h a u ;
Y** Id vee td n h u etfu cufl'i cfing san p h a m dfidc s a n xutft trong nfidc;
Y™ Id vec td n h u ctfu cuo'i eung s a n p h i m nhtfp k h d u . N h u c l u cudi cung d day dUdc
hieu bao gdra tieu d u n g cudi eung eua ca n h a n , tieu d u n g cuoi cung eua n h a nUdc, tieh Ifly tai san va xutft k h a u .
D l d a n g n h a n thtfy:
A-^.X + Y" = M (14) Q u a n he (14) dfidc hidu n h a p k h a u M dudc chia r a vec td n h a p k h i u eho s a n xutft (A^.X) va vec td n h d p k h a u cho sfi d u n g eudi cung (Y'")
Do dd q u a n h e (13) dtfdc viet lai:
A'.X-\-Y^ = X (15) Vd:
X = (I - A'')''.Y'' (16) Nhfi vay, q u a n h e (16) trd ve q u a n h e c h u a n eua Leontief d dang phi c a n h t r a n h , ma t r a n nghich dao Leontief (I - A^)'*
p h a n a n h td't hdn rtft n h i l u vd dp n h a y va dp Ian tda eua eae n g a n h t r o n g ndn k i n h te'. Ma t r a n n a y cd t h e ehpn nhflng n g a n h t r p n g diem cho n i n k i n h te' (key sectors), de tfl do eae n h a hoach d i n h e h i n h saeh cd t h e thtfy "kich etfu" vao d a u hoac ctfn md rdng s a n xutft cua nhflng n g a n h nao se tfi't nha't cho toan ndn k i n h td'.
6 cac nfidc p h d t t r i e n , b a n g I-O d a n g phi c a n h t r a n h dfidc lap trfie tid'p tfi d i l u t r a , d i l u n a y rd't q u a n t r p n g chd vifie d i l u ehinh cae chi t i e u v l san xua't va n h a p k h a u . Trong k h i dd, d Vifit N a m b a n g I-O c h i n h thfic do Tdng cue Thflng ke eflng bfi' de'n n a y chi la b a n g I-O d a n g e a n h t r a n h ; d i l u n a y mdt p h a n do khd k h a n t r o n g t h u t h a p sfi' lieu, nhtfng p h l n ldn ed t h e la do sfi thie'u hidu biet t r o n g stf d u n g mfl h i n h I-O. Cflng vi vay, b a n g I-O cua Vidt N a r a dUde lap den n a y ed p h l n m a n g t i n h h i n h thfic, khd cd t h e n g h i den viec sfi d u n g mfl h i n h n a y mflt each n g h i e m tue. Vi Iy do nay, khi nghifin cfiu vd I-O p h a i c h u y e n b a n g I-O d a n g e a n h t r a n h v l d a n g p h i e a n h t r a n h btfng phfidng p h a p gian tifi'p:
D a t : Di = 1 - (Mi + Ti)/TDDi (17) 6 ddy TDDi la tdng n h u c l u r o n g nfidc:
Phan tich mdi quan Ht.
TDDi = ICi + Ci + Gi + Ii (18) Quan he (17) va (18) t h e hidn n h d p k h i u hoac de l a m ehi phi d l u vao eua q u a t r i n h s a n xua't, eho t i e u d u n g eudi cung, hoae eho tieh luy. Trong md h i n h I-O khdng cd y n i e m tdi x u a t , vi k h i rapt s a n p h i m (hang hda) dfidc n h a p k h a u d u chi la t a i x u a t cung da Ifiu kho va nhfi vdy da di vdo gia t r i t a n g thfira eua b o a t ddng k h o bai.
Gpi £ Id ma t r a n dfidng eheo vdi eac p h l n tfi t r e n dfidng eheo la Di (i=l ii, vdi n la sfi' n g a n h dfidc k h a o s a t t r o n g md hinh), tfi do cd t h e t i n h toan dfidc h e so chi phi t r u n g gian la eac s a n p h a m t r o n g nfidc nhfi sau:
A-* = £.A (19) V a : Y ^ ^ f . Y (20) Tfi dd sfi d u n g q u a n he (18) cho t i n h
toan va p h a n tich.
Trong nghien cfiu nay, c h u n g tdi cap n h a t lai b a n g I-O vfing d a n g p h i e a n h t r a n h eho n a m 2007 (Trinh va cae cdng sfi) theo mue dieh nghidn cfiu, v u n g Kinh td' trpng diem B i c Bp (vung KTTD B i c Bd) bao gdm: Ha Npi, Hai Phong, H a i Dfidng, Hfing Yen, B i c Ninh, Q u a n g N i n h va V i n h Phuc va 27 n g a n h bao gdm:
1. Thdc 2. Trdng trpt k h a c 3. C h a n nuoi 4. Lam nghiep 5. Nudi t r d n g t h u y san 6. D a n h btft t h u y san 7. Khai t h a c rad 8. Che' bien t h u y s a n 9. ehe'bie'n gao
10. Che' bid'n san p h I r a nong nghidp k h a e
11. Ddt May 12. Gid'y 13. Gd
14. Cao su
15. S a n phdra k h o a n g s a n phi kim loai 16. Phfidng tifin vtfn t a i
17. S a n p h a m k i m Ioai 18. Cdng n g h i e p c h e ' b i e n k h a c 19. Dien va nfidc
20. Xay dting 2 1 . Vdn t a i 22. Truyfi'n thfing 23. Thtfdng m a i 24. Dich vu t a i c h i n h 25. Q u a n Iy n h d nude 26. Khach s a n , n h a h a n g 27. Dich vu k h a c 3 . K e t q u a n g h i e n cufu
V u n g k i n h tfi' t r p n g diera B i c Bfi la v u n g k i n h td' n a n g ddng eua ca ntfdc. Viec dinh htfdng tfu t i e n d l u tU d u n g dan cho eae n g d n h thude v u n g k i n h tfi' ndy khflng nhflng t a o da t h u a n lpi cho p h a t tridn v u n g raa cdn la ddng Iuc Ifii kdo cdc khu vUc Ian cdn p h a t t r i e n t h e o .
Sfi d u n g b a n g ddi lien n g d n h nfli vung d a n g p h i c a n h t r a n h n a m 2007, tdc gia da t i n h t o a n lan tda k i n h te', dp n h a y cua 27 n g a n h , b e n e a n h do t i n h t o a n lan tda cua cde n g d n h n a y ddn cac v u n g khac cung nhtf l a n tda dfl'i vdi n h d p k h i u tfl nfidc ngodi. Tfi dd, kd't q u a chi r a mpt sd ngdnh n e n dfidc fiu tidn d l u tfi p h a t t r i e n de t$o l a n tda tdi k i n h te' v u n g cung nhfi cac v u n g Ian c a n m a k h d n g ddi hdi ldn dd'n n h a p k h a u tfi nUdc ngoai+. Die'u nay khfing chi m a n g Iai t a n g trfidng k i n h tfi' cho Vung KTTD B i e Bp m a cdn gdp p h a n tao ra ddng Ific eho cac v u n g I a n can va hdn het se Iam giam t h a m htit thUdng mai cua Viet N a m t r o n g t h d i gian tdi.
4. Lan toa kinh tfi, dfl nhfly, dfi lan toa ngoai vilng Idn hon 1 thi tfit, Lan toa tfii nhflp kh^u tit nudc ngofli nho hon 1 thl tfit.
5 8 Nghiin cdu Kinh tff sff 440 - Thing 1/2015
Phan tich moi quan h$
BANG 3: Do lan toa, do nhay, lan toa tdi cac vung khac va lan toa tdi nhap khau ttt niidc ngoai theo nganh cua Vung KTTD Bac Bo
Stt 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
Gao
c a c cay tr6ng khac Gia sue va gia cSm Lam nghiep Nufii tr6ng thijy san Thuy san khai thac Khai khoang Ch^ bie'n thiiy san Ch^bi^n gao
Che' bi^n san phdm nfing nghiep khac
Det may GiSy 0 6 Cao su
San ph£m khai khoang khfing phai kim loai May moc thiet bi van tai San phdm kim loai San phdm ch^ tao khac Dien va Nu6c x a y dung Giao thfing van tai Truydn thfing Thuong mai Dich VIJ tai chinh Hanh chinh cfing Khdch san va nha hang Cdc dich VU khac
BL 0.942932 0.836039 1.011423 0.836209 1.005467 0.912795 0.882401 1.156069 1.559527 1.23492 0.904273 1.104409 0.918268 1.041457 0.919824 1.082297 1.013199 0.985811 0.88627 0.940476 1.009996 0.868059 0.944354 0.971072 0.963438 1.061654 0.924259
F L 1.537862 1.099644 1.071729 0.784549 0.991205 0.917025 0.830137 0.810815 0.87137 1.031947 0.817754 1.08438 0.786342 0.91091 0.873695 1.288314 0.777111 1.861409 1 183229 0.773897 0.953227 0.910424 1.099736 0.849906 0.774217 0.844283 1.264882
Lan toa ngoai vung 0.942178 0.936753 0.978339 0.987811 0.98077 0.988669 0.989694 1.10094 0.947747 0.97081 0.975354 1.060747 1.296561 1.010002 0.982156 0.952185 1.0096 1.059443 0.989391 1.047615 0988781 0.966151 0.943977 0.977735 0.973288 0977318 0.965988
Lan toa t6i nhap khau tiir nu6c ngoai
0.785742 0.762846 0851803 0.767202 0.768875 1.057057 0.870553 0.873289 0.723565 0.889891 1.811899 1.063839 0909216 1.03364 1.800324 1.261793 1.281614 1.221707 0.905795 1.262296 0.974123 0.860422 0857409 0818997 0.851147 0.870808 0.864148 NguSn: Tinh loan ciia tac gia Eiii Trinh.
B a n g t r e n cho t h a y eac nganh: gia sue va gia ctfm, nudi t r d n g t h u y san, chfi' bid'n t h u y s a n va che bid'n cac s a n p h a m nflng nghiep k h a c la n g a n h ed cac chi sd tfidng doi tdt khi m a dp l a n tda k i n h t d ciing n h u dp lan tda tdi cac v u n g p h u ctfn ldn hdn 1 va dp lan tda tdi
n h a p k h i u tfi ntfdc ngoai nhd hdn 1. K i t q u a n a y k h a t r u n g khdp vdi t i n h toan Ian tda c h u n g cua t o a n bd n i n k i n h te'. Ro r a n g , day la nhflng n g a n h k i n h t d m u i nhpn cua qudc gia Cling n h u eua vung n e n dUde Uu tien d l u tfi p h a t tridn. Ben c a n h dd, day la nhiing
Nghiin cdu Kinh tff sff 440 - ThAng 1/2015
Phan tich mdi quan he
nganh raa Vung KTTD Bdc Bd ed nhiing Idi thd' ve mat dieu Men tU nMfin de p h a t trien.
Vl vay, dau tU cho nhflng nganh nay ed the vfia khai thae tfi't t h e m a n h eua viing vfia it gay kieh tMch tdi n h a p khtfu.
Dfii vdi rapt sd nhdm nganb cdng ngMep nhU: ddt raay, gia'y, cao su va mdt sd n g a n h san xud't may mdc thiet hi khae, t u y cd dp lan tda kinh te' cung nhU lan tda tdi eac viing khae tdt nhung lan tda dfi'n nhdp k h a u tfi nfidc ngodi cung ldn. Thiic te, san p h a m cdng ngMfip xud't k h a u chu ydu eua Viing KTTD Bde Bp chu yeu la tfi khd'i doanh nghifip FDI, nhflng doanh nghiep nay nhdp khtfu nguyen lidu, linh kien tfi nfidc ngodi ve, td chfic gia efing, l i p rap tai Viet Nam sau dd lai phuc vti cho xutft k h i u . P h l n ldi ich cdn lai Viet Nara nhdn dfidc chu yd'u Id gia cfing vdi gia tri thtfp. Vi vdy, nfi'u tie'p tue fiu tien phat trien nhfing nganh nay ma khfing cd dinh hfidng d l u tfi ro rang thi ehi Idra ldi cho eae doanh nghiep FDI va keo theo do la t h a m h u t thfidng mai cang ldn.
Ve khfii ngdnh dich vu: giao thfing vdn tai vd khach san n h a hang la nhflng nganh cd
BANG 4: A n h hfioMg c u a c a c y e u t o ' t o n g
eac cM so' tfidng ddl td't, kM ma chi sd' lan tda k i n h tfi' Idn hdn 1, Ian tda ddn cae viing khac tfidng dfi'i cao, Ian tda tdi nhdp khtfu tfi nfidc ngoai t h a p . Nhtf vay, theo t i n h toan day cung la nhiing n g a n h cd tiera nang phat trien doi vdi Vung KTTD Btfe Bd. Ngoai r a thfic tdcho thtfy, vung cd nhiing dac didra dac trfing de p h a t tridn 2 ngdnh dich via nay, vdi mang Ifidi giao thfing da dang (gdra ea dfidng slt, dfidng bd, dfidng bien, dfidng hang khfing), t h e m vao dd la dieu kien tfi nMfin thudn loi eho phat trien du lieh, khaeh san va nha hang. Vdi muc tieu chie'n Ifidc phat trien Vung KTTD Btfe Bfi, ed ca'u san pham chu lilc va Iinh vfic fiu tien la cac Ioai dich vti cao ctfp, eae dieh vu cd chtft Ifidng cao; ddc biet la dieh vu thfidng mai, tai chinh, ngtfn hdng, du lich, dich vu edng nghfi, v i l n thfing, van tai ca trong nfidc va qufi'c te, thi trfidng btft dfing san, thi trfidng vdn, thi trfidng chfing khoan.., tM ro r a n g ngoai n g a n h giao thdng van tai va khach san n h a hang, nhflng nganh dich vu edn Iai v i n chfia thtfc sti xfing dang dfidc Uu tien khi ma eae c H sfi' t i n h toan dfi'u khong tdt.
c a u c u o i c u n g t d i s a n x u a t v a t h u n h a p
Lan toa t6i GTSX Lan toa tdi thu nhdp
C 1.42 0.7
•
1.23 0.37
E Khu vuc CO von dau tu nuoc ngoai
1.27 0.39
Khu VUC trong nui^c 1.26 0.61 Ngudn: Tmh loan cua tac gia.
Tidp tuc sfi dtmg bang dfii hen nganh npi vtmg dang pM canh tranh n a m 2007, tac gia tinh toan anh hfidng cua cac nhan tfl' tfl'ng e l u cufli ciing tdi san xuat va thu nhap cua vung.
Bang tren cho thtfy, trong cac ydu td cua tdng etfu cudi cung, khfing phai dau tU ma la tifiu dung va xua't khau anh hfidng tdi san xutft nhieu nhd't. Them vdo dd, dtfu tfi eung la yeu to' cd mfie dp lan tda tdi thu nhdp kem nhat.
Dieu nay eho thtfy Meu qua dtfu t u eua Viing KTTD Bdc Bd Mfin nay dang rd't thap, dau tU
khdng nhiing khdng tao r a die'u Men nang cao ndng luc san xutft ma cdn khdng cd tae doi^
den viee tao r a gia tri gia tang cho viing.
Ddi vdi xutft k h i u hang hda cua Vung KTTD B i e Bfl, ket qua tinh toan cM ra, xult k h i u cua khu vfic cd von d l u tU nUde ngodi co a n h hudng tdi san xuat n M l u hdn so vdi xult khtfu cua k h u vtic trong nfidc. Tuy nMen, diem dang chu y la xutft k h i u eua khu vitc trong nudc mdi a n h hfidng tdi gia tri gia tdng tdt hdn, die'u nay p h l n nad cung cd lap ludn
6 0 Nghiin aiu Kmh tff sff 440 - Thing 1/2015
Phan tich mdi quan he
rang, san xutft cua k h u vUc d l u tfi nfidc ngoai tai Vung KTTD Bdc Bd chu yfi'u chi la gia cfing va phue vu xutft k h i u raa khdng mang Iai n M l u gia t r i gia t a n g cho viing ndy. Bfin canh dd, xutft k h i u cua khu vfic trong ntfdc Iai mang lai n M l u gia tri gia t a n g hdn du rang khu vdc nay ty trpng xutft khtfu dang ngay cang nhd di so vdi k h u vtfc ed vdn dau tfi nfidc ngoai. Vdy phai ehdng nen cd nhfing cMnh sach fiu dai hdn dfii vdi cac doanh nghiep trong nfidc san xua't san pham hfidng tdi xud't khau, de k h u vtfe nay ed the phat tridn m a n h hdn, ed sfic canh t r a n h tfl't hdn dm vdi khu vtfe doanh ngMfip ed vd'n dtfu tfi nfidc ngodi?
Qua p h a n tich tren, tac gia n h a n thd'y, Vung KTTD Bdc Bfi tuy Id viing kinh tfi' nang ddng, dUde N h a nfidc Uu tien n h a m p h a t trien kinh te' tao dflng ltfc cho cac viing lan ctfn, nhfing ro rdng hifin nay vfing vdn cdn tdn tai mdt sfi' vtfn d l b a n ehe' c l n dfidc khac phue.
Thd nhdt, t u y dfidc fiu tien dtfu t u nhUng d l u tfi eua Vung KTTD Bde Bd thfic sfi v i n chfia mang lai ndng Ific san xuat cho vung, quan trpng hdn d l u tfi Id yeu td' cd a n h hfidng tdi gia tri gia t a n g thtfp nhtf't trong sfl' cac yfi'u tfi' eua tfl'ng eau cuoi cung. Thd hai, k h u vfic cd vdn d l u tfi nfidc ngoai la khu vfic phat trifin va n h a n dfidc n h i l u ifu dai, tuy nMfin khfing mang Iai gia tri gia t a n g Idn. Trong khi do, khu vUc kinh te' trong nfidc mdi thfic sfi 11 khu vfic ed a n h hfidng tieh ctic tdi gia tri gia tang eho vung. Thit ba, Vung KTTD B i e Bfl vdi muc tieu p h a t tridn edc nganh cdng nghiep cong nghe cao va dieh vu chd't Ifidng eao nhfing theo tinh toan, eae cM sfl' ve Ian tda cd the thd'y, nhflng nganh ndy chfia thfic sfi phat huy dUdc vai trd dtfn dtfu. Ben canh dd, mdt sd' nganh trong nhdm nfing ngMep va chfi' bieh san phtfm ndng nghidp mdi la nhflng nganh cd anh hfidng tich cfic tdi phat tridn Mnh te' cua vting.
4. K e t l u a n
Tfi nhiing kdt qua tinh toan trfin, cd thd dfia r a mfit sd kid'n nghi:
Thit nhdt, c l n nang cao Meu qua dtfu tU, hfidng tdi d l u ttf vao ndng cao nang ltfc san xuat pMa cung, tao t i l n de eho san xutft p h a t trien.
Thli hai, Vilng KTTD Bdc Bfi c l n xem xet lai dinh hudng t h u h u t dau tfi trfie tie'p nfidc ngodi, ben canh dd d n cd eac cMnh sach khuyfi'n kMch phat trien dfl'i vdi nhiing doanh ngMdp trong nfidc, bdi le day mdi thfic sfi la khu vfic mang lai ldi ieh cho vung.
Thd ba, c l n cd eac cMnh sach fiu tien phat tridn ddl vdi mdt sd' nhdm ngdnh cd eac chi sfi' tfi't (nhfi da phan tieh d phtfn trfin) dfi ed thd tao r a sfic Ian tda tfi't dfi'n phat trien kinh tfi' trong vtmg va edc vung ldn cdn, khai thac td't ldi the eanh tranh eua vung ma khdng gay r a t h a m h u t thfidng mai./.
TAI Lifiu THAM KHAO:
1. /\DB (2012), Supply and Use tables for selected Economies in Asia and the Pacific, December.
2. Ahmad, N and S. Araujo (2011), "Measuring Trade in Value-Added and Income using Firm-Level data"
3. Bui Trinh, Kiyoshi Kobayashi, Trung-Dien Vu, Hiam Le Hoa & Nguyen Viet Hiong (2012), "New Economie Structure for Viemam Toward Sustiunable Economic Growth in 2020" Global Joumal of HUMAN SOCIAL SCIENCE Sociology Economics & Political Science Volume 12 Issue 10 Version 1.0.
4. Johnson, R.C. and G. Noguera (2011), "Accounting for inteimediales: Rroduction sharing and trade in value added", Joumal of Intemational Economics, forthcoming.
5. Harry W. Richardson "Input-Output and Regional Economics" Vol. 83, No. 332, Economic Joumal, 1973
6. Leontief, W, and A. Strout (1963), "Multiregional Input-Output Analysis". In: T. Bama (ed.). Structural Interdependence and Economic Development, New Yoric:
a-Maitin's Press, 119-150.
7. Meng, B., N. Yamano and C. Webb (2010),
"Application of factor decomposition techniques to vertical specialisation measurements", IDE Discussion Paper No.
276, Institute of Developing Economies.
8. OECD 'TRADE IN VALUE-ADDED:
CONCEPTS, METHODOLOGIES AND CHALLENGES"
http://www.oecd.org/sti/ind/49894138.pdf
9. Robert Koopman el all (2008), "How much of Chinese exports is really made in China? Assessing Domestic value added when processing trade is pervasive"
working paper Nationa Bureau of economic research, Cambridge MA 02138, June.
10. http://www.gso.gov. vn/defaulLaspx?tabid=392&idm id=3<emll>13106
-j;j^i;i^;^7ouKmhtffsff440 - Thing 1/2015
