THONG TIN THAM KHAO
He luy dja chinh trj ti> cuoc khung hoang tai chinh toan cau
C
udc khimg hoang tai chinh toan cau lan nay cd tinh chat nghidm trpng va keo dai, dg lai nhung he lyy dia chinh tri quy md sau rdng. Qua trinh hudng ddn tir do hoa thi trudng da ngii'ng lai va mdt giai doan mdi ciia sy can thidp nha nude, sy tai didu tidt va chil nghTa bao hd timg budc da bat dau.That vay, ban than qua trinh toan cau hoa dang didn bidn trai chieu. Quan diem cho rang mpi ngu'di deu chidn thang trong mdt thi trirdng the gidi don nhat da cd dau hidu suy ydu.
Thuong mai toan cau, cac ddng vdn va dan nhap cu dang giam xudng. Didu khdng thd phdt Id la cac qudc gia cd he thdng tai chinh bidt lap, nhu Trung Qudc va An Dp, lai ganh chiu tdn that kinh td d muc thap nhat.
Hon nua, sy lanh dao toan cau va hgp tae giiia cac qudc gia se giam xudng. G7 va G20 da khdng cd kha nang ddi phd mdt each hidu qua trudc cudc khimg hoang nay, ngoai mdt ddng thai la md rdng quy md ciia Quy Tidn td qudc td (IMF). My cting hi han che kha nang trong vide giiip cac thiet chd nay van hanh va xet \'d tmng ban, vai trd chi phdi ciia My se cdn bi ban clie hon.
Dieu nay xay ra ddng thdi vdi xu hudng thoat khdi the gidi don cyc - mdt md hinh dugc day nhanh bdi cudc suy thoai toan cau. Hidn My se tap trung giai quydt nhirng van dd npi bd ciia minh nhu that nghiep va ap lyc tai chinh.
Da sd cac qudc gia tren the gidi cho rang tinh trang tham hut ngan sach qua mirc ciia My la
nguydn do gay ra suy thoai toan cau. Didu nay khien ngudi ta khdng cdn tin vao md hinh chu nghTa tu ban thi trudng ty do cua My. Hon niia, thidn chi qudc td ma Tdng thdng Baraek Obama ximg dang dugc hudng cting giam di phan nao.
Thdm vao dd, cugc khung hoang nay cdn bdc Id nhtfng diem ydu ciia Lidn minh chau Au (EU). Bat ddng kinh td dang gia tang, khi ba qudc gia hiing manh nhat EU gdm Phap, Diic va Anil da khdng dat dugc thoa thuan trong hanh ddng ddi phd vdi khiing hoang va tir chdi nhiing ydu cau trg giiip khan cap tir Ddng Au. Su thidu vang mdt ddng tidn chung, thyc sy da chimg minh sy ban che nay. Ngan hang Trung uong chau Au da td ra than trpng hon va kem quydn uy hon so vdi nhimg gi ngudi ta van ky vpng.
Sy thidu sire manh va doan kdt nhu vay d phuang Tay khdng thich hgp vao luc nay vi cudc khiing hoang tai chinh toan cau se lam tang sy bat dn vd dia chinh tri. Cac qudc gia dugc hudng lgi tir sy tang vpt gia dau va hang hoa CO ban nhu Iran va Nga, se phai chiu ap Iuc ldn vd kinh td. Mat khac, nhtfng qudc gia bat dn nhu Pakistan cd thd dii'ng trudc nguy co tan ra.
Ngheo ddi se gia tang nhanh chdng d nhieu qudc gia chau Phi. Tat ca nhung didu nay mudn ham y ve mgt the gidi ngay cang Idng leo hon.
Kd dugc lgi rd rang d day la Trung Qudc, vdi md hinh kinh td - chinh tri dac thii khdng he bj tdn thuong do cugc khung hoang. Dieu nay se nang vi thd toan eau ciia Trung Qude ldn mdt
66 -NhOng van de KINH TE VA CHfNH TRj THE G l d l Sd 10 (162) 2009
He luy dia chinh tri tir cudc khung hoang tai chinh.
tam cao mdi. Qua diing vay, tuy tang trudng ciia Trung Qudc cd cham lai, nhung van d mirc ma cac qudc gia khac phai ganh ty. Trung Qudc gid day la qudc gia giau cd nhit thd gidi xet vd dy trtf tai chinh. Ban lanh dao khdn kheo ciia Trung Qudc dang thyc hidn nhtfng dy an diu tu chien lugc ma ban lanh dao eac nudc khac gid day khdng thd lam dugc.
Tinh trang nghidm trgng ma theo dy doan se keo dai ciia cudc suy thoai toan cau la yeu td then chdt dd hidu dugc nhif'ng anh hudng vd dia chinh tri chae chan se xay ra. Ba ndn kinh te ldn nhat the gidi: My, EU va Nhat Ban se khdng thd tao ndn mdt sy phuc hdi binh thudng theo chu ky. Tdn that tai chinh sau rdng cd the ngan chan sy hdi phuc nay. Hau qua la, cac qudc gia cd sy tang tru'dng phy thudc vao nhimg thi trudng cac nudc ndi trdn, nhu cac nudc Ddng Au chang han, cd kha nang se mat incit thdi gian dai dd cd the hdi phijc kinh td. Nhieu ndn kinh td dang phat tridn phu thudc vao ngudn vdn nudc ngoai da hi anh hudng nghidm trpng.
"Mo xe" cuoc khiing hoang
Hay bat dau vdi nudc My, GDP cua nudc nay ldn gap ddi so vdi nude dii'ng thir hai sau nd. Trong khi da sd cac cudc khung hoang didn ra theo trinh tir tang ap lyc lam phat, that chat tien td dd kidm chd sire dp, suy giam kinh td dien ra do tang lai suat, thi cudc khimg hoang lan nay do can can tai san gay ndn. Nd bat ngudn ttr thidt hai vd tai chinh ciia cac hd gia dinh va ngan hang sau sir syp dd ciia thj trudng tin dung va nha dat.
Cac hd gia dinh My mat 20% gia tri rdng chi trong vdng 18 thang, giam tir giai doan dinh diem 64,4 nghin ty USD hdi giiia nam 2007 xudng cdn 51,5 nghin ty USD vao cudi nam 2008. Gin 2/3 sy suy giam nay la do gia trj tai san tai chinh ciia hg giam xudng, 1/3 cdn lai la do gia nha giam. Day la sir suy giam ldn khi tinh den thu nhap ciia cac gia dinh trung luu My hien nav la 50.000 USD (mirc thu nhap nay da
giam tren thyc te tir' nam 2000 tro lai day) va ty Id ng ciia cac hd gia dinh cao chua tirng cd (chidm tdi 130% thu nhap nam 2008).
Ng nan chdng chat la do ngirdi My chi tidu qua phdng tiing so vdi thu nhap. Digu nay phan anh hieu irng giau cd - cac hd gia dinh cam thay giau cd hon khi gia tri tai san ciia hp tang len va do dd chi tidu nhidu ban. Ngudi tieu diing My gid day dang "choang vang", vi vay hieu irng nay bi dao ngugc. Chi tieu cua cac hd gia dinh giam, lam nay sinh lan sdng bat thudng ve ty le tidt kidm ca nhan. Didu nay ly giai tai sao tieu diing ca nhan giam vdi mirc ky luc d quy IV/2008, nhung chi phi cho tidu dung van chi phdi ndn kinh te My (d mirc 70% GDP). Van dd cdt ldi la, khi nao tieu diing cd the lay lai niii'c tang binh thudng theo chu ky? Vdi gia tri nha dat trong nudc dang giam va gia cd phieu van thap ban 45% so vdi mii'c dinh diem nam 2007, thi cau tra ldi la dieu dd khdng de dat dugc trong mdt sdm mdt chidu.
Mdt van de chii ydu nifa la ITnh vyc tai chinh. Kd tir khi cudc khiing hoang nd ra, cac thiet chd tai chinh toan cau (da sd d chau Au) da bao cao bi thua Id mpl nghin ty USD cac khoan dfiu tu vao tai san tai chinh cd xuat xir ttr My. Mdi day, IMF udc tinh rang thua Id tdi da se ldn tdi con sd gay "sdc" la 2,75 nghin ty USD. Nhung khoan thua Id nay tryc tidp lam giam ngudn vdn ciia cac ngan hang, do do cting lam giam kha nang cho vay cua hp. Dieu nay ly giai tai sao khdi lugng cho vay ciia My lien tuc giam siit va tai sao mirc cho vay can thidt, nham hd trg sy hdi phuc theo chu ky binh thu'dng la didu khd xay ra.
Su hoi phuc "dau ddn"
Sy phyc hdi tai chau Au, tham chi se didn ra ygu dt hon. Mac dii. My dugc ky vpng tang trudng nhe vao nam 2010 (hang Goldman Sacks dy bao tang trirdng o mirc 1.2%), lhi kinh td khu virc ddng euro cd le vim se suy giam khoang 0,3%. Didu nay phan anh he thdng ngan
NhOng van de KINH TE VA C H I N H TRj THE Gldl So 10 (162) 2009- 67
He iuy dia chinh trj tir cudc khung hoang tai chinh.
hang de bi tdn thuong cua chau Au, cac nhan td lich sir va chinh sach khdng manh tay ciia kliu vyc nay.
So vdi My, c h a u A u sa vao cudc suy thoai cham hon, xet vd logic thi se phyc hdi cham hon. Thi trudng tin dyng va nha dat tan vd tai My va sir tan vd nay lan sang phia Ddng. Vi dii, chau Au van tang trudng vao dau nam 2008 trong khi My thi khdng. He thdng ngan hang chau Au cd quy md ldn hon My va cac ngan hang chau Au dd bi tdn thuong hon trude, sir suy ydu cua cac thi trudng mdi ndi d Ddng Au va My Latinh. Nhung cho tdi nay, cac ngan hang ehau Au thira nhan, mdt ty Id ng thap hon nliiing khoan ng khd ddi, gay thua Id trdn tdng nhimg khoan ng khd ddi cd kha nang xay ra thudc loai nay thap hon so vdi cac ngan hang My.
Hon nira, phan img chinh sach ciia chau Au ydu ban nhidu so vdi My. Washington thyc hidn gdi kich thich tai chinh tri gia 787 ty USD (gdm cat giam thud va khuydn khich tidu dimg), chidm tdi 5%) GDP. Vdi gdi kieh thich nay, ngu'di ta ky vgng GDP ca bdn quy eua nam 2009 se tang them 2% so vdi mirc ndu khdng thirc hidn gdi kich thicb nay. Ngugc lai, muc tidu ciia Kd hoach phyc hdi kinh td chau Au la dua ra gdi kich thich chi bang khoang 1,5%
GDP ciia EU. Va nhu thd, tac dyng kich thich kinh td ciia nd se khidm tdn hon.
Ddi vdi chi'nh sach tidn td, ciing cd sy khac bidt tuong tu. Sau thang trudc, Cyc Dy trii Lien bang My (FED) da giam lai suat eho vay qua ddm trong he thdng lien ngan hang xudng mirc 0%. Cimg vdi Bd Tai chinh My, Cdng ty Bao hidm tidn giri Lien bang My (FDIC), FED da dua ra hd trg bat ngd tri gia 13 nghin ty USD cho he thdng tai chinh. Sy trg giup nay bao gdm bao dam giay td cd gia, dau tu quy, thj trudng tidn td, eac nhdm tai san ngan hang cy thd.
Trong khi dd, Ngan hang Trung uong chau Au lai cham chap hon trong vide ha lai suit, giam cdn 1,25% vao thang 4/2009. So lieu ho trg tin
dyng ciia chau Au la 115 ty euro cho cac ngan hang va 217 ty euro bao lanh cho vay. Tuy nhien, con sd nay chi bang mgt phan nhd sg vdi nhiing gi Wasinhton da lam.
Cd vd sd nguydn nhan ly giai phan ung yeu dt nhu tren ciia chau Au. Mdt sd nguydn nhan lign quan dgn cac ngudn quy chi dimg cho mang an sinh xa hdi nhidu hon va nhu cau bao hd dac bidt It hon. Sd khac lidn quan ddn thai dp ac cam truyen thdng ddi vdi nhiing bidn phap chira dyng hau qua lam phat tidm an. Ciing cd nhirng khd khan cd hiin dd cd dugc mdt thoa thuan giiia nhidu qudc gia. Tat ca cho thay chau Au se phyc hdi cham hon My.
Nhat Ban ddi phd vdi cugc khiing hoang tham chi cdn ydu ban nhidu. Nhat Ban tuy van la ndn kinh td ldn thir ba thd gidi, nhung GDP nudc nay se giam cdn 6,6%o nam 2009 va dy bao se cdn giam nu'a trong nam 2010, chii vdu do xuat khau suy giam. Nhat Ban cting ban che dua ra cac gdi kich thich tai chinh, bdi vi ng qudc gia ciia Nhat Ban la rat cao va chinh sach tidn td ciia nudc nay la kha thoang trong nhidu nam, tire la cho phep dd dang tidp can cac khoan tin dyng.
Cac nudc dang phat tridn da bi tac ddng manh bdi cudc khiing hoang kinh te toan cau.
Cac ddng dau tu va tai trg da syt giam manh, kim ngach xuat khau rat thap va gia hang hda giam silt. Cac qudc gia Trung va Ddng Au la nhtfng nan nhan rd rang, do tham hut can can thanh toan ldn va bugc phai vay ciia nudc ngoai dd bil dap cho khoan tham hyt nay. Mdt sd qudc gia, trong dd cd Hungary va Ba Lan, da phai trdng cay vao nhtfng khoan cho vay khan cap ciia IMF. Trong khi do, ddng vdn dd vao chau Phi gan nhu ddng bang.
Bire tranh kinh td toan cau nhudm mau am dam: mgt sy suy giam mang tinh bat dn, sau sac trdn toan cau, vdi GDP toan the gidi lan dau tidn giam trong giai doan sau chidn tranh. Khi
68 -NhOng van de KINH TE VA CHl'NH TR! THE G l d l Sd 10 (162) 2009
He luy dia chinh tri tir cudc khung hoang tai chinh...
dan sd ngay cang gia tang, mdt sy suy giam kinh td trdn didn rdng nhu vay dang gay "sdc".
Den nay, sy suy giam cd the da cham day, nhung ba nam tdi tdc do tang trudng se rat cham. Nhtrng hau qua vd dia chinh tri cua cudc khiing hoang kinh td nay hidn dang dugc xem xet va chirng se rat phirc tap.
Sau toan cau hoa
Trudc hei. ky nguydn ciia thj trudng ty do da ket thiic. 30 nam qua, md hinh chii nghTa tu ban thi trudng ty do theo kidu Anglo - Saxon da lan khap the gidi. Vai trd ciia nha nudc bi suy ydu va sy phi didu tigt hda, tu nhan hda va md cira bidn gidi cho cac ddng vdn va hang hda da tang len. Md hinh nay dugc ap dung d da sd cac nudc Trung va Ddng Au, nhidu nudc Ddng A va mdt loat cac nude khac tti' Allen tdi Mexico.
Ddng thai nay da phan anh tinh uu viet ve kinh tg ciia My. Sy tang trudng, mirc sdng tang vgt va cac chinh sach kinh td bao thii ciia My da dugc nhidu ngudi ngudng md. Rat nhieu td chii'c va ca nhan thich ap diing md hinh nay va iing hd nhii'ng chinh phii nao tan thanh vide ap dung md hinh nay. Nhirng md hinh lay nha nudc lam trung tam nhu Phap va Dire da bi lep vd.
Gid day da sang mdt trang mdi. He thdng tai chinh Anglo - Saxon bi coi nhu da that bai.
Chinh sy that bai nay bi cho la nguydn nhan dan den su suy giam kinh td toan cau \a. da de lai hau qua ddi vdi ngudi dan. Trdn toan thd gidi, ke ca d My, didu nay da khidn trao luu chinh tri chuyen sang nipt hudng mdi. Vai trd ciia nha nudc lai dang dugc coi trgng ciing vdi sy tai didu tigt cac thi trudng. Xu hudng nay dugc the hien rd tai My, noi Tdng thdng Baraek Obama da chuydn hudng sang mdt chinh phii cd vai trd ldn hon va nang ddng hon. Vide '"gan nhu la qudc hu'u hda" (quasi nationalization) nganh ngan hang va cdng nghiep d td ciing vdi cai each sap tdi ve he thdng tai chinh da Iam rd sy clui_\en hudng nay. Didu nay cung cd the thay
rd tai Alien, Anh va d nhung noi ma viec qudc hiiu hda da didn ra tham chi cdn nhidu hon. Va ciing cd the thay rd didu nay qua nhirng tuydn bd cua cac nha lanh dao nhu Tdng thdng Phap Nicolas Sarkozy, ngudi gan day lien tuc ca ngpi
"sy trd lai ciia nha nudc" va "sy cham dirt tu tu'dng khu vye cdng khdng cd sire manli".
Thic hai, toan cau hda dang co hep ca ve khai nidm lan trdn thyc td. Phan ldn cae nudc tren thd gidi hien coi toan cau hda la cd hai. Cac qudc gia, dac bidt la cac nudc dang phat tridn tirng tigp nhan ngay cang nhigu cac ddng vdn tir bdn ngoai da bi tdn thuong nghiem trpng.
Nhii'ng nudc ty bao ve minh trudc nhifng ddng vdn va hang hda nay, nhu An Dp, it bi anh hudng ban. Sy lan rdng ciia vdn. hang hda va lao ddng trdn toan eSu dang dao chidu. Xuat khau trgn toan cau da giam manh. Theo bao cao cua Ngan hang Thg gidi (WB), kim ngach xuat khau cua Trung Qudc, Nhat Ban, Mexico, Nga va My giam it nhat 25% trong nam tinh ddn thang 2/2009. Cac ddng vdn ciing dang giam manh. Dy kidn, cac thi trudng dang ndi len se chi nhan 165 ty USD lugng von rdng (lugng von vao cac thi trudng nay trir di lugng vdn tir thj trudng nay dau tu ra bdn ngoai) trong nam 2009, giam so vdi mirc 461 ty USD ciia nam 2008. Hon nua, chii nghTa bao hd mau dich va tai chinh dang lan rdng. Ca WB va WTO gan day da canh bao vd xu hudng cac nudc tang thue nhap khiu, md rdng cac rao can phi thud quan va gia tang cac hanh ddng chdng ban pha gia nhim bao vd vide lam trong nudc. Brazil, An Dp, Nga va nhidu nudc khac da dugc hai td chirc nay dan lam thi dy. Hon nifa, cac ke hoach kich thich kinh td ciia nhigu nudc cdn bao gdm ca vide trg cip cho cac nha xuat khau va cac quy dinh "mua hang ndi dia". Hanh ddng phan bidt ddi xir ddi vdi lao ddng nudc ngoai dang lan rdng. Cac cdng nhan nhap cu. nhirng ngudi la nan nhan ciia cudc khung hoang nay dang
NhOng van de KINH TE VA CHl'NH TRj THE Gldl So 10 (162) 2009- 69
He luy dia chinh trj ttr cudc khung hoang tai chinh.
keo nhau vd nude. Nhat Ban va Tay Ban Nha dang dg nghi cdng nhan nhap cu nhan tign mat de hdi huong, trong khi do Malaysia dang budc cdng nhan nhap cu phai rdi khdi nudc nay.
Thic ba, the gidi cd the dang budc vao mdt giai doan toan cau hoa mdi, it didu phdi hon va it gan kdt hon. The gidi dang rdi khdi trat ty don cyc va cudc khimg hoang kinh td da day nhanh tidn trinh nay. My ciing da chuydn hudng tap trung vao cac van dd trong nudc, lo lang trudc tinh trang that nghiep nghigm trgng va cac sire dp tai chinh. Md hinh kinh td My gid day cung khdng dugc ua chudng nii'a. Tdng thdng Obama da cd mdt chuyen cdng du nudc ngoai thanh cdng va gianh dugc thidn cam d nhidu noi. Nhung sy quan tam va vdn lidng chinh tri ciia dng phai dugc chuyen vao nhiing van dd trong nudc, nhu dn dinh nganh ngan hang, xu ly tham hut ngan sach va cai each he thdng y td.
Cac qudc gia khac dang ndi ldn, dac bidt la Trung Qudc. Tuy kha nang dan dau eiia My gid day da suy giam va se tidp tiic suy giam trong trung ban, nhung chua cd qudc gia nao trong sd cac qudc gia dang ndi ldn dii kha nang thay the vi tri dan dau ciia My. Tridn vgng cd nhtfng tidp can da phuong hidu qua cting chua rd rang. G7 va G20 td ra khdng may hidu qua, cd the thay rd qua Hdi nghj Thugng dinh gan day tai London.
Tuy quy md ciia IMF da dugc md rdng tai cudc hpp nay va didu do la quan trpng, nhung ndu xet tdi nhtfng van de thach thuc hon nhu phdi hgp dua ra gdi kich thich kinh td trdn toan cau, giam sat tai chinh toan cau va van dd Afganistan thi Hdi nghi Thugng dinh nay da thit bai. Vd co ban, G7 da ldi thdi, Trung Qudc khdng phai la nipt thanh \'ign ciia nhdm nay, va G20 thi qua Idn. Ddi vdi nhirng van dd chinh tri cip bach nhu Iran va cudc xung dot Arap - Israel, chii ngliTa da phuang dang bi thu hep. Cudc khiing hoang kinh te hidn dang ddi hdi hiu hdt cac qudc gia, trong dd cd My, phai tap trung vao cac van de trong nudc. Cimg do vay. cac nude da khdng hudng irng nhirng sang kidn ciia My.
Cd thd iiy vin de Pakistan lam thi dy: mdt qudc gia bat dn nhung lai sd hiiu vii khi hat nhan, se de dga nhidu qudc gia khac, tuy nhidn chi cd boat dgng ngoai giao cua My la hoan toan cdng hidu tai day.
Thu tie, cugc khung hoang nay chae chan se lam gia tang bat dn vd dia chfnh tri. Ong Dennis Blair, Giam doc CIA cho rang sy suy giam kinh td da gay ra bat dn d mdt phan tu the gidi. IMF cting canh bao rang hang tridu ngudi se bi that nghidp, ngheo ddi va bat dn xa hgi gia tang hoac tham chi chidn tranh se nd ra.
Cac qudc gia cd Igi the vd ngudn nguyen nhidn lieu, nhu Iran va Nga, da thu Igi tir su
"bimg nd" gia dau va gia nguydn lieu, vi the, sire manh dia chinh tri ciia hg ciing tang ldn.
Nhung gid day, hg dang chiu nhiing sire dp ldn vd kinh td. Nam 2009, ty Id that nghiep cua Nga cd the se ldn tdi 12%o va nam trieu ngudi Nga chae chan se lam vao canh ngheo ddi. Gan mdt nira ngudn dy trtf ngoai te cua Nga, tuy van du dat, dugc chi tigu cho myc tigu dn dinh ddng rup va hd trg cac doanh nghidp nha nudc.
Doanh thu dau khf ciia Iran nam 2009 se giam xuong cdn 33 ty USD so vdi 82 ty USD cua nam 2007. Vdi gia dau thd gidi hidn nay, Iran dang roi vao tinh trang tham hut tai khoan vang lai. Ty Id lam phat cua nudc nay la 20% va Iran khdng chae se cd dugc tang trudng kinh te trong nam 2009 va 2010.
Cac qudc gia chau Phi bi anh hudng nang ne nhat bdi cugc khung hoang kinh td va sy bat dn ciia cac nudc nay chae chan se gia tang. Khiing hoang kinh td da lam nhiing van dd xa hgi tai cac qudc gia bat dn nhu Cong hda Dan chu Congo va Cong hda Trung Phi trd nen nghiem trgng. Dy trii ngoai td d khu vyc nay da bi thu hep. Chang bao lau niia, Chinh phii Cdngd se khdng thd nhap khau nhtfng hang hda thidt ydu nhu luong thyc va nhidn lieu. Cdng hda Trung Phi hien da khdng thd tra luong cho cdng chirc.
Nam 2007, cac qudc gia chau Phi da huy ddng 6,5 ty USD thdng qua ban trai phidu trdn thi
70 -NliOng van de KINH TE VA CHINH TRj THE G l d l Sd 10 (162) 2009
He luy dia chinh tri tir cudc khCing hoang tai chinh.
trudng qudc td. Nam 2009. con sd nay se la 0.
Cac ddng vdn tu nhan cd the giam gin 90% va Vien Phat tridn Hai ngoai, co quan nghien cim ve phat tridn qudc td dde lap hang dau cd try sd tai London, dy doan vidn trg nudc ngoai chinh thirc cho chau Phi se giam 20 ty USD, do cac nha tai trg ban chd chi tidu. Gia hang hda giam manh ciing vdi sy suy giam tdc do tang trudng kinh te, ddng vdn tu nhan va vidn trg nudc ngoai da keo thang du tai khoan vang lai chung 4% ciia chau luc nay xudng mirc tham hut 6%
chi trong vdng hai nam. Theo mdt nghidn cim ciia WB, udc tinh 53 tridu ngudi dang sdng d cac thi trudng dang ndi Idn se tai ngheo ddi trong nam 2009. Didu tdi td hon, do anh hudng tir cudc khiing hoang kinb td nay, dgn nam 2015, se cd thdm 400 nghin tre em tir vong mdi nam.
Mo hinh Trung Quoc
Chi cd Trung Qudc la thang thd. Tang trudng ciia Trung Qudc da giam nhung gid day cd the dang tang trd lai. Gan day, tidu diing didn nang, van tai hang hda va doanh thu d td d Trung Qudc ddu da tang. He thdng tai chinh ciia nudc nay duge bao dam va gan nhu khdng cd dau co vay ng, do vay hau nhu khdng bi anh hudng.
Day la didu kien dg Trung Qudc day manh cho vay vi myc dich kieh thich ndn kinb td. Md binh phat tridn dac sac Trung Qude dudng nhu dang giiip nudc nay vugt qua cudc khimg hoang kinh te mdt each hidu qua. Va vdi mirc dy trtf ngoai hdi udc tinh 2.300 ty USD, khdng nudc nao cd the giau hon Trung Qudc.
Tat ca cac ydu td nay dang lam tang vi thd dia chinb tri ciia Trung Qudc. Phuang Tay dang trai qua mdt cudc khiing hoang kinh td nghidm trpng dugc coi la do chinh nd tao ra, trong khi dd Trung Qudc thi khdng.
Ban lanh dao Trung Qudc nhan thirc rd lgi the tuong ddi nay, cho du nhtfng uu tien ciia nudc nay ludn tap trung vao trong nudc.
Ngoai nguyen lieu than, Trung Qude la qudc gia ngheo vd ngudn lyc. Nhung gan day, nudc nay dang dau tu vao ITnh vyc nguyen nhien lieu eiia cac qudc gia khac, chang han nhu mua ngudn cung cap dau tuong lai ttr Nga va Venezuela.
Ngay cang rd rang la quan he My - Trung se ndi ldn nhu la mdi quan he song phuang quan trgng nhat trdn the gidi. Ca My va Trung Qude ddu cd nhiing lgi ich dia chinh tri gidng nhau. Ca hai nudc ddu khdng mudn Iran cd dugc vu khi hat nhan hoac Pakixtan trd thanh mdt qudc gia bat dn. Do dd, khdng cd ly do gi dd mdi quan he nay khdng phai la mdi quan he hgp tac va mang tinh dn dinh toan cau.
Khiing hoang kinh td la mdt sy kien gay chin ddng toan cau. Thi trudng ty do, toan ciu hda va phi didu tidt da phd bien ra toan ciu trong 30 nam qua nay da cham dirt va mdt thdi dai mdi da bit diu. Hdi nhap tai chinh va kinh td toan ciu dang dao chidu. Vai trd ciia nha nudc ciing vdi chii nghTa bao hd mau dich va tai chinh dang gia tang*
Nguon: Roger C. Altman (2009):
Further Geopolitical Consequences of the Financial Crisis, Foreign Affairs, July/August.
Pham Kien luac dich
NhOng van de KINH TE VA CHfNH TRj THEGldl So 10 (162) 2009- 71
