PHAN TiCH - NHAN DINH - DU BAO
Chat lifofng tang triTdng kinh te Viet Nam nhin tuT goc do tang nang suat yeu to tong htfp
NGO THI THANH T H a V
Bai viglt phSn tich chat lu'dng tang tru'dng kinh td' Vidt Nam tif goc do nang suSft yd'u td' t^ng hdp giai dogn 1986-2013 va tuf do d l xu§'t mot sd' giai phap dd' gdp phin nang cao chat lifdng tang tru'dng kinh t^ cua Viet Nam.
CaSOLYTHUYET
Ndng sud't yd'u td tdng hiSp (TFP) la chi tidu quan trpng de danh gia tifi'n bd cong nghe va phdn tich chd't lu'dng tdng trifdng kinh td', do lu'dng nang suat ca lao ddng vd vdn nhd ddi mdi cong nghd, dp dung tien bp ky thuat vdo qua trinh san xud't, ndng cao trinh dp lao ddng...
Md'i quan he giiJa tdng trifdng kmh te (GDP) vd TFP du'dc thd hiSn bang Hdm san xud't Cobb-Douglas ed dang:
Y = T K" LP. Trong do:
K Id vdn;
L Id lao ddng;
T Id TFP - hieu qua ciia viec suf dung vd'n vd lao dpng.
Tdc dd tang TFP Id ty 16 tang Ifin cua san lifdng dau ra, do nang cao nang sua't tdng hdp theo ngudn life, nd phan anh todn dien chieu siu cua qud trinh san xuS't. Tdc dd tdng trUdng TFP difde tinh bdng cong thu'c sau:
g = t + ak + pi. Trong dd:
g: tdc dd tdng tnfdng ciia GDP;
t, k, 1 id tdc dp tdng ciia TFP, vdn (hode tdi sdn cd'dinh) vd lao dpng;
p: Id hi sd' ddng gdp ciia lao dpng du'dc tinh bdng chi phi cua lao ddng/GDP (theo gid hi^n hdnh);
a = 1 - p Id he sd ddng gdp ciia tai sdn cd dinh.
Cd rd't nhieu nhan to' ddng gdp idm tdng TFP, nhutig 3 yeu td'dtJde xdc dinh Id thuOc ITnh vu'c khoa hpc va cong nghe, tdc dOng trifc ti^p den chd't lifdng tdng
^
tnfdng kinh te, do la: ap dung tien bd ky thuat, chat lu'dng lao dOng vd hieu qua dau tif.
KET QUA NGHIEN CLfU
t^dng gop cua TFP den tdng trUdng kinh te' SiJ dung phifdng phdp tinh tU Hdm san xua't Cobb - Douglass, so' lieu Bang I, c6 thd thd'y, ddng gdp ciia vd'n, lao dpng va TFP vdo tang tru'dng kinh te Viet Nam giai doan 1986-2013.
Td'c do tdng tnfdng ciia vo'n c6 xu hifdng tang qua eac giai doan vd dieu nay chii'ng to, tang tru'dng kinh te difa nhieu vdo vo'n, neu nhif giai doan 2006-2010, ty IS ddng gdp ciia vd'n vdo tang tru'dng Id 80% (cao nhd't trong gan 3 thap nien gan day), thi giai doan 2011-2013 tuy ed giam nhu^g van con kha cao (60%).
Chiem vi tri thiJ hai sau vd'n la ph^n ddng gdp ciia lao dpng (giai doan 2006-2010 chie^m 26%; giai doan 2011-2013 chidm 24%). Tdc dp tdng TFP tinh du'dc ed xu hifdng bien dpng gid'ng tang tru'dng GDP trong cac giai doan tif 1986-2013. Trong do, giai doan 1991- 1995, td'c dd tang tru'dng GDP dat miJc cao nha't 7,9%/
nam, tdc dp tdng TFP 3,6%/nam. Dieu ndy the hien sif thanh cong trong qud trinh doi mdi ciing nhu qua trinh hoi nhdp cua Vidt Nam tren thi truTdng quo'c te thdng
BANG 1: DOIHG GOP CQA CAC NHAN TO VAO TANG TRd^MG CGA VIET NAM GIAI DOAN 1986-2013
1986-1990 1991-1995 1996-2000 2001-2005 2006-2010 2011-2013
% tiing . tnfdng GDP
4,8 7.9 6.7 7.2 6.8 5.8
Theo <uigi,nb^mram VfTn
1.8 1.3 3 3.6 5.4 3.5
Laoddne 1.6
3 2.7 0,5 1,8 1.4
IVV 1.4 3.6 1 3.1 -0,4 0.9
Tt>«atil$Bdi|iitrfini Vtfn
37 16 45 49 80 60
Laeddns 34 38 40 7 26 24
TFP 99 46 16 43 -6 16 Nguon: Tdng eye Thong ke v
' ThS,, Tru'dng Dgi hpc Quy Nhdn I Email:[email protected]
lictiruimy und Forccusi R e
P H A N TICH - MHAN DjMH - DCT BAO
BANG 2: NANG SOAT LAO DONG THEO GIA THCTC TE CGA VIET NAM GIAI DOAN 1986-2013 N9m
NSLD (ineu ilona/nsu'c)])
1986 0.1
1990 5.1
1995 9,5
2000 12
2005 19,6
2010 37,6
2013 66
HINH 1: TOC DO TANG GDP, TOC DO TANG MSLD CUA VIET NAM GIAI DOAN 1985-2013
- T o c d o i a j i g N S U ) - • - T 6 c do t i n g OJP Toi a i , i i a n e l n o d ? n | | Ngu6n: GDP theo gia thi/c te. so liiOng lao dong ona Hten 'liiim Thona ke va Iinh toan cua tac gia
BANG 3: CHAT LdONG LAO DONG CCJA V!ET N A M GIAI DOAN 2 0 1 0 - 2 0 1 3 NSm
2010 2013
Stf cS'pn&hl trd len 23,5 7r.
30.9'7f
Cong nhan kv thuSt trd len 1 1 '/;•
1 7,6'/r
HlNH 2: HIEO QOA Sif VON COA VIET NAM GIAI DOAN 1986-2013
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<^^"'
/ • " \
\ /^'"
• - -*»~.,nt*'»Vw^,.
BANG 4. HIEG QGA s d DgiNG VON CUA KHU VtfC K T N N
Nam
20(15 2IHI6 :i)()7 :i)(is 20(19 2010 2011 2012 2()1.''UIT'L-I
Toe do tang GDP cua khu vrfcKTNNCa)
7.37 6.17 5,91 4,36 3.99 4.62 4.46 5,68 5,31
Ty le dau til khu viJc KTNN so vdi GDP(%)
50.16 50.82 48,19 39,61 49,35 47.33 37.6 35.41 33,4
ICOR khu vi/c nha niiCic
6.x 1 8,24 8.15 9.08 12.37 10,24 8.43 6,23 6,29
ICOR loan n^n
kinh te 4.6 4,85 5,17 6.95 7.54 7.14 6.18 5,6 5,53
qua thifdng mai va dau txi nrfdc ngoai di doi vdi tiep nhdn ky thuat cong ngh6 - mot trong nhiJng nhan td^ quan trpng cua TFP. Tuy nhien, toe dd tang TFP c6 xu hifdng cham din ttt sau ndm 2006 den nay. Giai doan 2006-2010, vd'n gia tdng nhifng khdng 1dm tdng san lifdng d^u ra, n6n ddng gdp TFP mang gia tti (-0,4%).
Giai doan 2011-2013 cd xu hifdng tang trd lai nhu'ng vdn con cham (0,9%) va ddng gdp vdo tang tnfdng GDP chi 16%.
Cha't lUffng lao d^ng
Qua so' lieu bdng 2 cd the thd'y, ndng sud't dong (NSLD) ciia Viet Nam tang lien tuc, do td'c do tang GDP cao hdn toe dd tdng lao ddng (binh quan giai doan 2001-2013, GDP tang 7,1%, lao dong dang 1dm viec tang 2,9%). Chinh vi vdy, td'c do tang NSLD ciing cd xu hifdng tang qua ede nam (Hinh 1).
Trong vong 13 ndm trd lai ddy (2001- 2013), td'c dd tdng GDP vd td'c dp tang NSLD CO xu hifdng biS'n ddng cdng chieu, nhifng khdng dn dinh va c6 xu hifdng giam ttf nam 2008 va den ndm 2010, lai cd da'u hieu phuc hoi, nhiftig sang nam 2013 lai giam.
Mdt thiJe te la lao ddng cda Vifit Nam tuy ddng v^ sd' lifdng, nhifng chat lifdng con kem. Mac du da difde cai thien, nhifng d6'n nay, ty 16 lao dpng qua ddo tao con thap.
Qua sd'lieu bang 3 cho tha'y, ty le lao ddng da qua dao tao cua Viet Nam nam 2010 chie'm 34,5% (trong dd, ty le sdcap ngh^ trd 16n la 23,5% va ty le edng nhdn ky thuat Id 11%) vd ndm 2013 chie'm 48,5% (trong dd, ty 16 edng nhan ky thuat ehi chiem 17,6%), mot eon so eon rat khiem td'n. Ben canh dd, ty le nguon nhdn life CO trinh do chuyen mon eon thap dan den NSLD tha'p va dieu nay cung dnh hifdng xa'u dd'n cha't lu'dng tdng tnfdng.
Hi^u qua sH dung vd'n Hi6u qua suf dung vdn difcJc th6' hien qua he sd ICOR- lahesd'chobi^tsdddn vi vd'n dau ttf (tinh theo % cua GDP) cln thiet de dat dirpc 1 % ddn vi tdng tnfSng GDP. Chi so'ndy edng Idn, thi hoat ddng dau tu* cang kem hieu qud.
So' lieu Bang 4 cho thd'y, he so' ICOR cua Viet Nam cd xu hifdng gia tdng manh trong giai doan 2007-2010 vd bdt dau c6 xu hifdng giam dan trong nhiJng ndm gan day. Neu nam 2010, he sdlCOR Id 7,14, thi den ndm 2013 ifdc gidm c6n 5,53.
Qua phan tich sd lieu hd sd' ICOR qua cdc thdi ky, dac biet giai doan 2007-
10
2010. he sdlCOR la cao nhat (trung binh h%j6 ICOR bdng 7), day Id tin hieu cho thay, vdn dau tif chifa difdc SIS'dung hieu qua (Hinh 2). Sd di nhif vdy Id do, mot so' khu vifc kinh te siJf dung vdn con kem hi6u qud, trong do cd khu vifc kinh te nha nifdc (KTNN).
So vdi he sd^ ICOR cua todn nen kinh te, thi ICOR ciia khu vifc KTNN c6 xu hifdng bien ddng eiing chieu va tu'dng ddi cao. Trong khi dd, ty le vdn diu tif cua khu vac KTNN chiem ty trpng Idn so vdi GDP, nhuhg hieu qua thS^p da keo theo hieu qua sij" dung vdn dau tif ciia nen kinh te xudng tifdng ddi thap.
MQISOKIEN NGH!
Mot la, ndng cao chat lu'dng lao dpng, dac bi6t Id lao ddng chuyen mon ky thuat trinh dp cao, dap ilng nhu clu phdt trien nen kinh te'. Cu the la:
•+ Vl phia cau lao dpng, can thay ddi md hinh tang tnfdng va tap trung nang cao trinh dp khoa hpc, edng ngh6 cua san sud^l.
•+ V l phia cung lao dpng, can tang c^dng chat lu'dng trong ddo tao ngudn nhdn life, tao ra ed ca'u lao dpng cd tay nghe hdp 1^, phii hdp vdi cd ca'u nganh kinh te vd dieu ki6n thifc td trong tdng trifdng kinh te Vi6t Nam. Di 1dm difdc dieu ndy, cSn tdp trung edi cdeh he thdng gido due - ddo tao - day nghe, gan ddo tao vdi sii dung lao dpng, day manh ddo tao tai doanh nghiep.
-I- D^y manh xa hdi hda dd tdn^ cifdng huy ddng vd'n cho phdt trien ngudn nhdn life; Thifc hien thu hep dan khoang cdeh giCfa diu ra ciia ddo tao vdi nhu cau hien ed cua thi tnfdng lao ddng; Da dang hda cdc hinh thu'c ddo tao, trong dd chu trong nang cao hi6u qud day nghe, nha't Id eho lao dOng d ndng thon.
-I- Tid'p tuc hoan ihidn thd che', chinh sdch phdt tridn ngudn nhdn life, thifc hien
cd hieu qud quy hoach phdt tridn ngudn nhdn ItJc, dap ihig nhu clu ciia xa hpi.
Hai Id, ndng cao hieu qua siJdung vdn dau tif. Trong dd:
+ Can ddi mdi chinh sdch tdi chinh trong qua trinh tang tnfdng tCf vide vd'n dau tif cua khu vi/c KTNN chiem ty trpng Idn sang tang tnfdng difa tren tang vd'n dau tif cua khu VLfc kinh te ngoai nha nifdc vd nifdc ngodi.
-I- Phai ed sif phd'i hdp hieu qua ciia todn bp he thd'ng nen kinh te trong tai cd ca'u dau tif cong gan vdi ehuyen ddi md hinh tang tnfdng theo hifdng ndng cao chat lifpng tang tnfdng; Hoan thien ed che phan cap quan ly dau tif gan vdi cong tdc tang cifdng giam sat, d l cao trdch nhi6m cua dia phifdng va chii dau tif dd dam bao chat lifdng trong ede dif an dau tif cong, nha't Id khac phuc dau tif dan trai, cham tien dd, dpi gia vd lang phi that thodt.
4- Cd chinh sach hieu qud de thu hiat manh dau tif xa hpi, dau ttf nu'dc ngodi vdo cdc dif an Idn, edng nghe cao. Tao dieu kien thuan Idi de cac chii dau tu'cd thd tid^p can vd suT dting hieu qua cdc ngudn life, tCf dd se tao budc ehuydn manh trong chuyen dich cd ca'u kinh td va nang cao chat lifdng tang tnfdng.
4- Day manh dau tif vao ITnh vifc cd nang sua't lao ddng cao, tang cifdng dau tif edng nghe den tidn va hien dai vdo eac ITnh vifc san xud't de ndng cao hieu qua ca nen kinh te.
Ba la, tang cudng dong gdp ciia yeu to' khoa hpc cong nghe, ky thuat quan ly trong tdng trifdng kinh te bang each day manh nghien edu vd u'ng dung khoa hoc - cong nghe vdo cdc ngdnh, ITnh vifc ciia nen kinh te'. Can hodn thien chinh sdch de khuyen khich doanh nghiep dau tif cho nghien ciTu khoa hpc, ddi mdi edng nghe trong sdn xua't. Tao mdi tnfdng dau l\i Idnh manh de eac doanh nghiSp ed du ndng life u'ng dung edng nghe mdi, khuye'n khieh tif nhdn (thdng qua md'i lien ket giila cdc tru'dng dai hpc vd doanh nghiep) tham gia vdo boat ddng nghien ciJu khoa hpc - cong nghe...
Ben canh dd, can tdng cifdng vai tro cua Nha nu'dc trong bao hd quyen sd hifu tri tue cho cdc doanh nghiep t^ng dung edng nghe mdi. Dd'i vdi viec tie'p nhdn cong nghe tien tien hien dai dtfdc chuyen giao tif nifdc ngoai, nhd't Id trong cac dtf an ed vd'n dau \.\i nude ngoai, can xdc dinh ro nhifng tieu chuan cu the ddi vdi cac cong nghe dupe chuyen giao, trdnh tinh trang tie^p thu cong nghe vd thiet bi lac hau, gay d nhiem mdi trifdng, tieu ton nhieu nhien lieu...U
TAI lA^V THAM KHAO
1. Chinh phii (2013). Bdo cdo ciia Chinh phu ve tinh hinh kinh te - xd hoi ndm 2013, kit qud ba ndm thf/c hi$n ke hoach 5 ndm (2011-2015) vd nhiem vu 2014-2015 tai phien khai mac Ky hop ihii 6, Quoc h^i Khoa XIII. ngay 21/10/2013
2. Uy ban Kinh td'Qud'c hoi, Tnfdng Dai hoc Kinh te'Qudc dan (2010). Bdo cdo "Mo hinh tdng triidng kinh te Vi$t Nam giai do^n 2011-2020: tCt nhan thiic tdi hdnh dong"
3. Trln Tho Dat, Do Tuydt Nhung (2011). Vai trd eua ndng sud't tdng hcJp nhdn to' trong tdng tnfdng kinh te d Viet Nam. Tqp chi Kinh leva Phdt trien, so 169, thdng 7
4. Tdng eye Thdng ke (2002-2013). Nien gidm Thong ke 2001-2012
