Tang tru'dng
kinh te Viet Nam
nhin tuf phia tong cau
LE MAI TRANG' TRAM ANH TQAN"
Tom tat
Nghiin cffu tii'p can tdng trudng kinh titheo quan diem cda Keynes, mgt nhd kinh tihgc trgng cdu di ddnh gid tdc dgng cua cdc nhdn to'cd'u thdnh nen tdng edu ddng gdp vdo tdng trUdng kinh ti(GDP). Kit qud chl ra rdng, xudt khdu rdng cd ddng gdp nhiiu nhd't din GDP, sau do la chi tiiu cua khu vuc chlnh phu. khu vuc tu nhdn. Dau tu cdng cd tdc ddng ngugc chieu din GDP, da vgy chinh phU nin xem xet, ca cd'u lgi ddu tu cdng theo hudng cd lgi cho tdng trUdng kinh ti.
Tu" khoa: tdng trudng, tdng cdu, ddu tucdng Summary
The study approaches economic growth from the point of view of Keynes - an economist to assess the impact of factors assemble to the aggregate demand contributing to economic growth (GDP). The results show that net exports contribute the most to GDP, the next one is exspenditure of the government and the private area. Public investment has a negative impact on GDP, so the government should consider and restructure public investment in favor of economic growth.
Keywords: growth, aggregate demand, public investment
GIOI THIEU
Nam 2018, mac du trong bo'i canh kinh te the' gidi di6n bien phiJc tap nhif chie'n tranh thiTcfng mai My - Trung, ty gia, gia dau tho..., nhu'ng ldnh te Viet Nam vfin phat tri6'n nhanh, hoan thanh vifdt cac chl tieu cd ban cua ke hoach de ra. Nhieu to chtfc quo'c te', nhu": Ngan hang The gidi (WB), Ngan hang Phat trien chau A (ADB), Quy Tien t6 Qud'c te' (IMF) deu nhan dinh Vi6t Nam da va dang c6 bu'dc di dung dan, kinh te' vT mo ngay cang on dinh, mac dil cdn gap nhieu kbo khan, thach thiJc phia trifdc, dac biet can day nhanh tai ca'u true nen kinh te.
Trong bd'i canh hien nay, viec danh gia chat lifong tang trifdng c^n du'dc quan tam lu\i y. Tren cd sd ly thuyg't cua Keynes, la mgt nha kinh te'hoe trong cau, nbdm tac gia danh gia tac dgng cua cdc
nhan to' ca'u thanh nen tdng c^u dong gop GDP, \xi dd difa ra cac kie'n nghi chinh sach phil hdp (Bdi viit sff dung cdch sd thdp phdn theo chudn qud'c te).
CO sd LY THUYET VA PHUONG PHAP NGHIEN CLTU
Tong quan ly thuye't cua Keynes vdi tang trtfdng kinh t^'
Theo Jones (2008), ly thuye't cua Keynes bao gom 3 tru cot; each tiep can theo cac dai lu'dng td'ng ggp;
vai tro quye't dinh cua tdng cau; tam quan trgng cua ky vong vao tifdng lai cua cdc tac nhan kinh te.
Tlf tifdng kinh ti vT mo cua Keynes cd the tdm tat sd lifdc nhli sau: Tdng san lufdng (cung la tdng thu nhap) cua nen kinh te'hinh thanh nhd vao viec hien thifc hda nhu'ng quye't dinh chi tieu chinh la: chi tieu dung cua ho gia dinh (C); chi tieu cho dau ttf, md rgng kinh doanh cua doanh nghiep (1); chi tieu cua chinh phu (O) va chi tieu rdng cua cac nen kinh te ben ngoai dd'i vdi cac san pham ngi dia (NX). Trong ngdn ngtf hien dai day la 4 thanh phan cua tdng cau:
"TS., " T h S . , Tru'dng Dai hoc ThUdng mai
Ngdy nlign bdi: 23/03/2019; Ngdy phdn hign: 17/04/2019; Ngdy duyet ddng. 22/04/2019
GDP =C-\-I+G + NX
Hanh vi cua cac loai chi tieu trong bd'n loai tren la khac nhau. Trong dd, chi tieu hd gia dinh piuj ihugc vao thu nhSp ky vgng vd mong mud'n tiS't kidm cua hd; chi tieu cho kinh doanh phu thudc vao ke' hoach kinh doanh cua doanh nghiSp, ma ke hoach nay lai phu thudc vao ky vgng cua doanh nghiep ve ttfdng lai; chi tieu cua chinh phu phu thudc vao nhu cau, ngan sach va ke hoach cua chinh phii; trong khi chi tieu rdng cua ntfde ngoai phu thudc vao tinh trang cua ntfde ngoai va cdc dieu kien thtfdng mai qudc te. Nhin vao 4 loai chi tieu tren, thi 2 loai dau tien phu thudc rat nhieu vao ky vgng v l tifdng lai cua chu ttie chi tieu. Day la mgt dac diem quan trgng, mang ham y sd'ng cdn trong ly thuye't cua Keynes.
Theo Keynes, Ichi mtfc thu nhap tha'p hdn mtfc tieu diing can thie't, cd the xud't hien tinh trang chi tieu vtfdt qua thu nhap. Nhifng, khi mtfc thu nbdp tuyet dd'i dtfdc nang len, thi se cd khuynb hifdng ndi rdng stf chenh lech gitfa tbu nhap va tieu diing. Dac biSt, khi ngifdi ta dat de'n stf tien nghi nao do, ihi hg se trich ttf phan thu nbSp tang them cho tieu diing it hdn, cdn cho tie't kiem nhieu hdn. Day la quy ludt tdm ly cd ban cua bd't ctf cgng dong tien tie'n nao.
Mat khde, khi nghien ctfu tieu diing cho dau ttf cua cac doanh nghidp, dng cho rang, dau tu' ddng radt vai trd quyet dinh de'n quy md viec lam va theo do la tdng trtfdng kinh te.
Keynes cho rang, de bao dam stf can bang kinb te, khac phuc tha't nghiep, khung hoang va duy tn tdng trtfdng kinh te, thi khdng the dtfa vao cd chd'tbi trifdng ttf dieu tie't, ma can phai co stf can thiSp cua nha ntfde dd tang cau cd hieu qua, kich thich tidu dCing, san xua't, kich thich d^u ttf de bao dam viec lam va tang thu nhap. Theo dng, chinh phu cd the can thiep vao nen kinh te' nham thiic day tang trtfdng thdng qua cac boat ddng: dau ttf nhd ntfde; he thd'ng tai chinh lin dung va Itfu thdng tien te; cdc hinh thtfc khuyen khich tieu diing.
PhiTdng phap nghidn cii'u
Nghien ctfu tfng dung phan tich hdi quy dtfdc gidi thieu lan dau tien ttf nam 1877 bdi Sir Francis Galton (Aczet va Sounderpandian, 2009; Cleff, 2011). Mdt trong nhtfng muc tieu quan trgng cua phdn tich hdi quy la dtfa ra kha ndng dtf bao cho bie'n pbu thudc dtfa tren dff heu thu thap cua mdt sd' bie'n dgc lap khac. Nghien ctfu stf dung md hinh hdi quy bdi vdi phtfdng phap binb phtfdng nhd nhat de tfdc^hfgng md'i quan he gitfa cac nhan td ca'u thanh nen tdng cau vdi GDP va xem xet md'i quan be, cung nhtf ttfdng quan bie'n dgng giffa cac nhdn td binti thdnh nen tdng cau vdi GDP.
Md hinh hdi quy bdi dtfdc stf dung de danh gia tac ddng cua nhidu nhan td len gia tri cua dai Itfdng Y:
Trong dd: Y"la gidjd cua bien phu thudc Y; p, la he sd Chan, p/vdi j=2,k la he sd gdc va U la sai sd ngdu nhien.
Taky hieu:
^ = ^1 />]
C/-L VJJi'kt
\I X X, • K>
Mo hinh bdi quy tdng the (1) cd the bieu didn dtfdi dang ma trdn:
Y=Xp_+U^ (2) La'y mau gdm n quan sat {(X , X X,,, Y,),...,JX,^, X^,..., X^„, Y )}, khi do md hinh hdi quy mdu cd dang:
r = ^ , + ^ ^ ^ , + ^ / ^ , + . . , + ^ / ^ , w M3) Tifdng ttf, neu ta ky hieu:
\t! ...
M6 hinh hoi quy miu (3) cd the bieu di6n dirdi dang ma tran nhu" sau:
r=Xfi _ (4) Ta ky hi6u cac phSn du" (sai l$ch) e = y, "J,, theo phttOng phap binh phifOng nho nhat, khi xSy dUng ham hoi quy mlu, cac he so hoi {juy mlu /? phai duoc xac dinh sao cho tong binh pWong cac phin dif (Ze-)dat gia Uri nho nhCt, khi do cac he sS P, diloc xac dinh theo c6ng thffc ma trta:
P^iX'xy.x'r
KETQUA NGHIEN ciru viZ'l.f' '"''"8 tang trifdng kinh t§'4 T „ ^ ' « ' P " a t 6 n g c l n 7 08%™ i ''™8 tru-dng GDP dat GDP K 1 ° * " ' ''•°"g ' o n g 10 nam qua,
SsaKll^o/vngtratda, 2V
on dmh, cac rt ' ' i " ' * P '«'= '"'"?'= '^"y '''' lam phat duon v-?°' '''" "!'*?<: b * " dam, d£.ng (CPI) tang 3 ?,S'*'; '^M ^° gi* tiiu tie'pdtiai4%. - ^ * , latiamth4 3hen
Xet ve phia cu„„ ,. , , nam 2008, tang trus " 1'^" ^^ '*
rieng khu vuc n6ng,°| °'^P tl?' 7.08%;
thuy san tang 3.76% ^ : "^^ nghiep v^
ke tit nam 2012 Khu v H r * " ^ ' ^ ' ' " "i'^' xay ditng tang 8.85%'vh°"^"ShiSpva tiing 7.03%. Boi vai kiiu v V * ''•'='' ' » - ngtf nghiep, khu vuc ndnB'i,"?"^ " I ^ "
CO tang trtfdng cao nhat tint ,,™*P cung (2.89%) (Hinh 1) '"nan 2012
Tren goc do tong cau, 1 la tru c6t cho tang trudng ,» ""ng van , tiSu iime lien tuc ttt nam 20].=1 Tgn, ""*= tang ''"fehang
hda bdn le va doanb thu dich vu tieu diing nam 2018 tang 11.7% so vdi ndm 2017, cao bdn 0.7% so vdi mtfc tang cua nam tru'dc. Trong dd, nganh Itfdng thtfc, thtfc pham tang cao nhS't vdi mtfc 12.4%, iiip theo la may mac, do diing dung cu...
Diem sang trong tang trtfdng tidu dung nam 2018 la xu hifdng md rdng dn dinh qua cdc thang trong nam. Stf dn dinh gia ca vdi thu nhdp ngay cang cai tliien la nhan td' quan trong quye't dinh cho mtfc tang dn dinb cua tieu dung, lam cho ty trgng trong GDP cua thanb phin nay cd xu htfdng tang qua cac nam.
Tong vd'n khu vtfe nha ntfde, tdng vd'n d^u tu' ttf ngan sach nha nifdc tdng raanh dmtfc 11.2% so vdi nam 2017; trong do, ngdn sdch dia pbtfdng tdng 19% cdn vdn ttf Trung tfdng lai giam 6.1%. Vd'n tin dung dau ttf theo ke hoaeh, cac nguon vay idiac va vd'n cac doanh ngbidp nha ntfde deu giam manh so vdi nam trtfdc
Nam 2018 Id ndm dau tidn thtfc hien theo ke' hoach dau ttf cdng 5 nam thay vi ttfng nam nhtf trtfdc day, do vay da cd mdt so ban che' trong cdng tac thifc bidn dau ttf edng. Diem ra't Hch etfc la khu vifc tlf nhdn dang gbi dd'u d'n manh me khi dau ttf ngoai nha ntfde tang nhanh dat 18.5%, chie'm de'n 43.3% tdng vd'n dau ttf toan xa hdi va cao bdn 2 itn td'e do tdng vd'n eua khu vtfe FDI. Cilng vdi do, sd' Iifdng doanh nghidp da phat trien nhanh qua ttfng nam. Nam 2016, lln dau tign sd'doanh nghiep thanh lap vtfdt ngtfdng 100,000 doanla nghidp, nam 2017 dat tren 126,000 doanti nghidp mdi du'dc thanh ldp. Nam 2018 da cd trdn 131,000 doanh ngbidp dtfde thanb lap mdl va tren 34,000 doanh nghidp da hoat dgng trd lai.
Hoat ddng xud't khd'u la diem sang nha't trong cac thanh phin cua tdng clu ndm 2018 vdi tdng kim ngaeh dat gin 245 ty USD, tang 13.7%, vtfdt chi tieu Eang 10% dat ra ttf diu nam vd vtfdt mtfc ky luc 214 ty USD nam 2017. Cd'tdi 29 nhom/mat hang dat kim ngaeh tren 1 ty USD va 6 nhdm/mat hang ttdn 10 ty USD. Nbd dd, xua't sieu cting xdc ldp ky luc mdl vdi 6.89 ty USD, tang 147% so vdi gia tti xud't sidu nam 2017. Cac mat hdng xud't kb^u cd gid tti ldn la didn dioai va linh kidn, hang det may, may vi tinh, san pham didn ttf va linh kien tang lan itfdt la 10.5%, 16.6%), 13.4%; tdng gia tri cde mat hang nay chiem tten 60% kim ngaeh xud't khau. Trong dd, dien thoai vd
HJNH 1: TANG TRCfCiNG GDP VA c A c N G A N H KIMH TE H A M 2018
MgLiSn- Tong cue Tho'ng ke
Iinh kien chiem gan 30% kim ngaeh xua't khau; dung cu va phu tiing, dien thoai cac loai chidm gin 40% kim ngaeh nhap khau.
Kd't qua phdn tich hdi quy
Tren cd sd nghien ctfu md binh ly thuye't md hinh tdng clu theo quan diem cua hgc thuye't Keynes, danh gia cac didu kien thtfc tien cua Vidt Nam Id ndn kinb te' nhd, md ctfa, ndn nhdm nghien ctfu chgn md hinb phan tich mdi quan hd gitfa GDP vdi cac cd'u thdnh cua tdng clu, nhtf sau:
GDP = c, + c^iNV^„^ + c;v„ + Cfi^^,^ +
Trong dd:
GDP: GDP danh ngbia; INV : diu ttf cdng; N^^:
xud't khiu rdng; G^^^^. chi tidu cua chinh phu; P^ONS- chi tieu cua khu vtfe ttf nbdn.
Nghidn ctfu difa trdn sd' lieu kinh te' vi md ttf nam 2002 dd'n 2018 cua Tdng cue Tbd'ng kd, Ngdn hdng Nha ntfde, Bd Tdi chinh, ADB.
Ke't qua thd'ng ke sd' lieu nhtf Bang 1 dd cbi ra rang:
- Cdc hd sd Knewness cua GDP (0.40155), 1NV_
STATE (0.375807), G_CONS (0.146411), P_CONS (0.356245) ddu dtfdng va nhd hdn 0.5, nen phu bdp.
- Hd sd Knewness eua N_EX (-0,502643) dm vd nhd bdn -0.5, nen dtf bdu ve N_EX dtfdc coi la lech ddng ke ve bdn pbai. Ddng thdi, cac p-value ttong kiem dmh Jarque-Bera cua GDP (0.439607), INV_STATE (6.456149), G_CONS (0.536655), N_EX (0.545354), P_CONS (0.43674) deu ldn hdn 0.05 cdng khang dinh eae dtf lieu khdng tuan theo quy ludt phdn phd'i chuan.
Dtf Hdu dtfdc dtfa vao tinh todn theo md hinh ly thuyd't md hinh tdng cau cho ke't qua nhu' Bang 2.
Kd't qua cho tha'y:
- H6 sd R-squared=0.998845, chtfng td md binh bdi quy la phu hdp vd 99.8845% stf tbay ddi eua GDP dtfde giai thieh bdi cdc bid'n: INV^STATE, G_CONS, P_CONS, N„EX.
BANG 1: KET Mean Median Minimum yicewness K.iirtosis Jarque-Bera Probability Sum Sum Sq, Dev.
06.servations QtlA TOM
GDP 2^58943.0' 1809149.0 481295.0 1546441.0 0.401550 1.705543 1.643750 0 439607 38402033.0 3.83E+13
!7
FAT THONG KE BO DCf LIEU GIAI DOAN 2nn?.?0lR 11NV_STATE
287534.0 101973.0 167598,3 0.375807 1.714945 1.569872 0 456149 5187950.0 4.49E-H11 17
G CONS 672326.C 15 0033.C 388694.3 0.146411 1.707089 1.244799
114117190 2 42E+I2 17
N.EX -4314.000
6501.230 -0.502643
1.212642
6,76E+08 17
F CONS 1239151.0
1010007.0 0,356245
1.656771
1.63E+13 17
B A N G 2 : K E T Q O A CTCiC L d d N G Dependent Variable. GDP
Method- Least Sauares Date: 04/02/19 Time: 09:33 Sample: 2002 2018 Included observatians:
Variable C INV STATE
N EX G CONS P CONS R-squared
Lo^ likelihood Prob(F-sratistic)
17 Coefficient
217366 1 -4.233747 38.93139 3.619397 0.734927 0 998845 0.998460 60690 84 4.42E+I0 -208.3917 2594 051 0.000000
Std. Error 112680 6 1.969363 8 250201 0.842117 0.168704
t-Statistic 1 929047 -2,149805 4.718841 4 297973 4.356313 Mean dependent var S.D. denendent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Oumn criter.
Durbin-Watson stal 1
Prob.
0.0777 0.0527**
0.0005*
0.0010*
0.0009*
2258943.
1546441.
25,10490 25.34996 25 12926 2,373316 rSgu6n- Tinh toan cua n h o m nghien cUu
- Cac p-value cua cac he so hSi quy N_EX (0.0005), G_
CONS (0.0010), P_CONS (0.0009) deu co y nghia thong ke vdi mut y nghia 1%, con he so hoi quy INV_STATE (0.0527) CO y nghia thong ke v6i muC y nghia 10%.
- Ve tac dong cua cac nhan to cS'u thanh nen GDP, ta nhan thay, he so ciia N_EX (38.93139), G_CONS (3.619397), P^ciONS (0.734927) deu dKOng chiJng to cac nhan to nay tac dong cung chieu vdi GDP va he so ciia INV_STATE (-4.233747) am chifng to nhan td' INV_STATE tac dpng ngUdc chieu len GDP.
Nhu vay, mo hinii hoi quy chlnh thdc la:
GDP '= 217366.061335 4.233747168S6'mV_
STATE + 38.931385S982'N_EX -f 3.61939720458*G_
CONS + 0.73492739939*P_CONS
Ket qua phan tich da chi ra rang:
- Tang trUdng kinh tg' chiu anh hiidng nhieu hdn ciia xuat khau rong, chi tieu ciia chinh phii va chi tieu cua khu vUc tU nhan nhung dau tU cdng lai co anh hiTdiig trai chilu den GDP. Trong dd, xuat khau rong va chi tieu cua khu vUc chinh phu CO tac dong ldn hdn so vdi khu vu'c tu- nhan. Dieu do cho tha'y, thang dif thuOng mai va chi tieu ciia khu vifc chinh phii cd ddng gdp dang ke cho tang trudng kinh le. Do dd, Chinh phu can khuye'n khich khu vifc ttf nhan phat trien, dong thdi tao dieu kien hO trd hoat dong xua't - nhSp khau de tao ra thang dif thifdng mai.
- Dau tu cdng chua the hien difdc sU ddng gdp trong tang tnfdng kinh te. Dilu nay the hien hieu qua dau tif c6ng^ ciia Chlnh phii chua hop ly, cd [he do dau tit dan trai, trong qui trinh dau tif cd that thoat, lang phi, nen khong mang lai tac dong tich Clfc de'n GDP, mil tac dpng ngUdc chieu tdi GDP.
Tlf ket quii phat hien tac dQng cda d^u tu cong dd'i vdi tang trudng kmh te ciia Viet Nam, nhdm nghien ciJu nhan tha'y rang, Chinh phii can thie't phai cd cS'u lai dau tu cdng trong dieu kien dn dinh kinh t^ vi md trong ngan han nhif hien nay vS hudng de'n muc ti6u tang trUdng b i n vifng trong dai han. Trudc het, can tai CO ca'u ddu tu cong theo hudng giam dan ty trong dau tU cong trong tdng vo'n dau tU toan xa hpi, dpng thdi tang cudng manh me hi&u qua vk chat ludng ciia dau tU cdng. TiS'p dd, can tang cudng cong khai, minh bach trong hoat dpng dau tu cdng, tang cudng giam sat ciia cpng ddng, ciia cac td chiJc khoa hoc va cac cd quan hifu quan. Ngoai ra, can nang cao hieu qua cdng tac giam s4t, kiem toan dau tu- cdng, gilip giam tham hut ngSn sach nha nudc, tao dieu kien cho dn dinh vi md va tao nen tang cho tang trudng ben vitng trong diii han.Q
_ _ J ' A l J J E l l I H A M J O l i O
1 Trudng Dai hoc Kinh te Quoc dan (2013). Gido Irinh Kinh te'lMng
2. Aczet, A.b., Sounderpandian, J. (2009). Complete Business Statmics (7th ed). New York:
" " ? Anderson™.R., Sweeney, D.J., WiUiams, T.A. (2011). Statistics fa, Business and £co„„,„,„
( ; ; A erf). Mason, OH: South-Wester . . „ . ,„ . ^ 4 rleff T (2011) Exploratory Data Analysts in Business and Economics, Sponger 5. Jones', Philip J. (2008). Keynes's Vision: Wliy the Great Depression Did not Return, Routiej^g
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