DINH HaciNQ ^ TRIEN VONG
Dtf bao tang trtfoTng GDP khu vtfc kinh te
nam 2013
3 l^n
P H 6 T H | KIM CHI - TRAN TH| KIM DUNG - DO VAN LAM Ban Phan tich va Dff bao Trung tarn Thong tin va Dtf bao Kmh te - Xa h6i Q.u6c gia
Thdi gian gSn dfiy, phat tri^n cac khu vuTc kinh tS* dang c6 si^ thay d^i, c<f cS'u kinh td' theo hifdng cdng nghi$p hoa dang ch^m lai, khu vi^Tc ndng-lSm-ngif nghi^P (NLNN) gii? mifc tang truToTng kha ^n dinh, tSng tri/cTng cua khu vi^c cdng nghiep - x£iy diAig (CN-XD) giam siit, thay vao do la sif vU'oTn l€n cua khu vi^c dich vu (DV) vdi mvlc tSng trUcTng ^n dinh va dong gop cao nhS't vao tang trtfdng chung. V^y, tri^n vong tang trifcTng 3 khu vi^c nay nam 2013 ra sao se dtf^c nhom tac gia d^ c$p trong bai.
Q u a trlnh tang trffdng G D P 3 khu vffc kinh te Idn
Td'c do chuyen dich ca cd'u GDP theo hudng cong nghiep hoa dang chgm Igi.
Dinh hffdng cong nghiep hoa trong thdi gian qua tac ddng manh de^n chuyen dich ca cau GDP trong ca 3 khu vffc kinh t^ Idn c6a Viet Nam. Tuy vdy, toe dp chuyen dich khdc nhau theo tffng giai doan. Khu vffc CN - XD da cham lai ro rSt trong nhffng nam gin day, cd the chia thanh hai giai doan:
Giai doan tntdc nam 2005: cd cau khu vffc CN-XD cd chuyen dich manh me, ty trpng GDP khu vffc CN-XD chuyen tff mffc 22% nam 1990 da tdng len mffc tren 41% nam 2005. Ty hong GDP khu vffc NLNN gidm manh, tff mffc gin 40% n5m 1990 xu^ng con 21% nSm 2005. Khu vi^c dich vu giff mffc t^ ttpng 6n dinh. Chuyen dich cd cin diSn ra chO y^u giffa cac khu vffc CN-XD vd DV.
Giai dogn tic 2005 den nay: td'c dO chuyen dich cd c^u giffa cac khu vffc chdm lai. Trong 6 ndm, cd cS^u giffa 3
Economy and Forecast Review
khu Vffc kinh te gan nhff khdng thay ddi. Ndm 2005, ty trong NLNN/CN-XD/DV Id 21/41/38% thi den nam 2011 la 22/40,3/37,7%.
Vi tri ddn dat tdng trudng chung dang thay doi. Lay td'c dp tang GDP chung cua nen kinh te de so sdnh, thdi gian qua, khu vUc CN-XD cd td'c dp tang GDP cao nhd't HINH 1. CO CAG GDP BA KHG VdC GIAI DOAM 1985-2011
DINH HaONG - TRIEN VQNG
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trong 3 khu vifc (19/25 ndm trong giai doan Iff 1987- 2011) va cao hdn tang trffdng kinh te chung (20/25 nam). Cd the thay, kinh te' Vidt Nam chiu dnh hffdng nhi^u nhd't cua tdng trffdng khu vffc CN-XD. Td'c dO tang GDP khu vffc CN-XD dffpc duy trt khd on dinh tff ndm 1990 dg'n nkm 2007. Tuy nhiSn, tff ndm 2008 trd lai day, toe dp tdng trffdng GDP khu vffc CN-XD dang c6 chilu hffdng gidm siit, thffdng chi d mffc xap xi hodc thap hdn toe dO tSng trffdng chung vd tha'p hdn khu vffc DV.
Khu VUC NLNN cd t^c dp tdng trtfdng GDP thffdng thap nhlft trong 3 khu vffc vd thap hdn mffc tdng trffdng chung (24/25 ndm quan sdt). Td'c dO tdng trffdng khu vi/c ndy tff ndm 1992 trd lai ddy, dao ddng trong khodng tff 3-4% va khong chiu tdc ddng nhieu ciia khung hodng kinh tg" thS" gidi vd khu vffc. Nhffng giai doan td'c dO tang trffdng toan nen kinh t^ sut gidm do khung hodng, tang trffdng khu vffc NLNN van duy tri d mffc trung blnh (4,3% ndm 1997 vd 4,4% ndm 2008). DSy Id mdt
trong nhffng yS'u id" "cffu cdnh", giiip lang irffdng kinh l^ chung khdi sut gidm vd duy tri dffdc 6n dinh vT md.
Khu vi/c DVc6 toe dO tdng GDP kh6ng deu qua cdc thdi ky. Giai doanl987-1991, nen kinh tS" sau khi md ciJa, khu vffc DV dat t^c dO tdng d'n tff0ng, cao hdn nhilu td'c dp tang trffdng nen kinh t^ va 2 khu vffc cdn Igi. Tuy nhien, vdi si; bfft phd on dinh cua khu vffc CN-XD trong giai doan 1990-2007 dSn theo dd la tdng mrdngcfia n^n kinh t^, khu vffc DV trong nhffng nam ndy khdng theo kip vdi khu vffc CN-XD, chi xa'p xi & mffc tdng chung. Tuy nhien, tff ndm 2008 trd la i day, tdng trffdng GDP cOa khu vg'c DV dang cd dd'u hieu khdi sdc trd lai, t^c dd tang GDP dang cd xu hffdng cao hdn mffc tdng trffdng chung vd hdn khu vffc CN-XD. Do vdy, dich vu dang dan trd thdnh khu vffc quan trpng, quy€^t dinh tSng trffdng todn nen kinh te (xem hinh 2a).
Ddng gdp vao toe d0 tdng trudng dang cd xu hudng chuyen tU CN-XD sang dich vu. Vdi ty trpng vd toe dp tang trffdng cao trong thdi gian ddi, khdng the phu nh^n sff ddng gdp cua khu vffc CN-XD vdo lang trffdng kmh te chung. Tff ndm 2008 den nay, do tdc dO tang trffdng khdng on dinh nen CN-XD khdng cdn ddng gdp cao nhat nffa, luy dien bien cua nd van quyet dinh mffc tang tnfdng chung {hinh 2b).
Ddng gdp cua khu vifc NLNN vao tang trffdng chung tuy khd on dinh, nhiltag khdng nhieu, lai luon tha'p hdn l^c do tdng trffdng chung.
Nhffng thay doi trong td'c dp chuyen dich cd cd'u cua 3 khu vi;c chinh cung nhff vai trd dan d^t nen kinh te thdi gian qua cd the dff^c gidi thlch bdng nhilu nguy6n nhdn. Nhffng nguyen nhdn chinh Id sff khdc bi$t v l mffc dp trong phii thuSc vao von dau tff vd ty trpng chi phi trung gian chi phd'i gid tri gia tdng giffa cdc khu vffc.
Tdng trudng khu vt/lc CN-XD va DVphu thuQc nhieu vao von han NLNN. Ty trong dau tff vdo 3 khu vffc kinh t^ Idn kh6ng thay d6i nhieu, ddc bi$l tff ndm 2005 trd lai day. Trong dd. dIu tff vdo DV cao nhd't, chi^mkhodng51%(ndm 2011) so vdi mffc tren 49% (ndm 2005). Do ty trpng dau tff vao khu vi^c CN-XD gin nhff khOng ddi, chiem xap xi 43%, nen t^ trpng ddu tff ciia khu vffc DV tdng ISn do ty trpng dIu tff khu vffc NLNN gidm, tff 7.5% (nam 2005) xuong cdn 6% (ndm 2011) (hhih 3a). T^
le von/GDP cung khdc nhau. Khu vffc DV vd CN-XD cd ty 16 von/GDP ritcao
Kinh le'vii DJ bio
(ndm 2011 tffdng ffng 46,8 vd 37,1%), so vdi mffc chung toan nen kinh t^ la 34,6%
vd khdng gidm nhieu trong thdi gian qua (xem hinh 3b), chffng td sff phu thudc Idn vdo tdng trffdng von cua hai khu vffc nay.
Khu vffc NLNN da khdng phii diupc nhieu vao von, mffc phu thupc lai cung dang cd xu hffdng gidm din, khodng 9,4% (2011) so vdi mffc tffdng iJng 14,6% (2005) vd 19,3% (2000).
Chi phi trung gian (IC: Intermediate Cost) cua khu vUc CN-XD cao va dang trong xu hudng tdng. Xdt ve phia cdc khu vffc cua nen kinh 16' cd th^ ihd'y, chi phi trung gian cua CN-XD ludn chi6'm ty trpng cao nhd't (nam 1989 chiem 49%
trong tdng chi phi trung gian; ddn nSm 2007 con sd' ndy 16n dd'n gin 72%). Td'c dp tang IC cua khu vffc CN-XD cao, td'c dO tSng gid tri sdn xua't (GO) cua khu vffc nay vd dd ch6nh dang cd chieu hffdng tang 16n. Dilu nay Id mdt trong nhffng nguyen nhan chinh Idm dnh hffdng den toe dO tdng trffdng ciia khu vffc CN-XD, ddc bi6t la trong nhffng nam sdn xuS't gap khd khan.
Ndm 2012: Khong nhff mong ddi
Cdc y6'u kem npi tai cdng vdi tdc dpng cua chinh sdch tiln te that chat k6o dai 1dm cho khu vffc sdn xua't gap nhilu khd khdn. Tang ttxfdng kinh te Vi6t Nam nam 2012 khdng dffdc nhff mong ddi, td'c dd tang trffdng kinh t^ giam. Theo tinh toan cua chung tdi, dff ki^n chi d mffc 5,3%.
Mffc gidm tdng hifdng d6'n tff cd 3 khu vifc Idn cua nen kinh t ^ tuy nhien, Idn nhSft vSn Id khu v\Jc CN-XD. Nhffng xu hffdng chinh trong tdng trffdng cda 3 khu vffc se tid'p tuc k6o ddi trong nam 2013.
Cu \hi vdi cdc khu vffc, nhff sau : - San xuat khu vUc CN-XD ndm 2012 khd khdn, 1dm chi s6 sdn xu^t cdng nghidp (HP) theo thdng liSn tuc gidm. Trong nhffng thdng cuoi nam, flnh hinh cd kha quan hdn, nhffng dd h6i phuc la chffa ro r$t. Drfki^n mffc tdng trffdng khu vffc CN- 3CD ndm 2012 se chi dat gan 5%, thap hdn mffc tdng trffdng chung cua cd nin kinh t^. Nhff vdy, ddy se Id ndm ti^p theo cd td'c dd tdng trffdng khu vffc CN-XD th^p hdn mffc tdng trffdng chung. Nguydn nhdn din dS'n tinh trang suy gidm ndy, ngodi y^u td khdch quan, cdn do CN - XD phu thudc qud nhilu vdo vdn (hdn 43% tdng vd'n cfia nen kinh t^ trong nam 2011). Khi chinh sdch thdt chgt tiln t6 tiep tuc kdo
ddi se 1dm gidm Iffdng vd'n Iffu thdng, cdng vdi nhffng khd khan trong tiep can vd'n cua cdc doanh nghiep khiS'n khu vffc ndy chiu anh hffdng nang ne nhat. Them vao dd, vdi dac trffng la khu vffc cd ty trpng cung nhff td'c dp tang chi phi trung gian cao nhat trong nhieu nam, khi san xua't gap khd khan, td'c dp tang gid tri san xua't giam thi gia tri tang them cua khu vffc CN-XD cung bi gidm theo.
Tdng trudng khu vi^c NLNN dat mvtc on dinh. Toe dd tang trffdng ffdc tinh dat khodng 3,4% (thap hdn mffc 4% tffdng ffng nam 2011, xa'p xi d mffc trung binh 5 nam trffdc dd) la mdt nd Iffc trong dieu kien n^n kmh te gap nhieu khd khan nhff nam 2012. Tuy vay, vdi ty trpng tha'p vd lo'c dp tang thffdng thap hdn nhieu td'c dO tang trffdng chung, khu vffc nay cung khdng the trd thdnh ydu td thuc day tang tnfdng chung cua toan nen kinh te.
Tdng trudng khu vUc DVhien dang cd nhUng buttphd vc toe d0. Tff nam 2008 trd lai day, khu vffc nay khd on dinh, vdi tdc dp tang trffdng cao hdn mffc chung cua nin kinh te va khu vffc CN-XD. Tuy trong nam 2012, mffc tang tnfdng cua khu vffc DV ifdc dat 6% (thd'p hdn so vdi mffc 6,8% nam 2011 va trung blnh 5 nam trffdc dd), nhffng vdi ty trpng trong GDP khd Idn (khodng
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Economy and Forecast Review
DINH HCICNG - TRIEM VQMG
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Trien vpng tdng trUdng ndm 2013
Nam 2013, khd ndng h6i phuc san xud't Id chffa ro ret. Rat nhieu ^ ki^n cua cdc chuyen gia cho rdng, n^n
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kinh te se doi mat vdi nhilu kh6 khan, dac bi?t la nSa diti naiti 2013, do slJc (Sp va kli6 khan v^ nd x^u, thanh khoSn cua cdc ngan hang thtrtJng m^i, Stffeclu da dir^c cdi thi^n, nhung chiJa Ai manh.
Chinh .sdch tai kh6a va tiln t^ dil kiffn khd ndi I6ng nhilu do sii"c €p v^ lam phat trong n^n kinh t^.
+ c a c kjch ban tang tnfdng kinh t^
dii^c difa ra diTa vao cac gia thiet ve ting trirdng cua Ihi gidi vj Vi$t Nam. Se c6 3 kjch hdn diSn ra'
Kfch bdn tctng trudng trung blnh, toe dO tang trtfdng kinh tS' Vi$t Nam nam 2013 se dat 5,7%, trong khi th^gidi dat 3.3%. von dau tif phat triln tang 11%, Day la kich ban chij vdi nhi^u khd nang xdy ra nhat.
Kjch ban lang trudng cao, cd die x3y ra khi tang tnfdng kinh te th^ gidi tang tnfdng tot, dat 3,6%, von dau nf phat tri^n tang 15%, ting InfSng Viel Nam dal 6,3%.
Kjch bdn tdng trudng thap cung c6 thi xay ra trong dieu kien xau. luc dd tang tnfdng kinh te the gidi dat 3.1%, vSndlu tlf phat trien tang 7,62%; khi dd toe dO tang tnfdng Viet Nam se khdng bSng nam 2012. chi dat 5%.
Vdi cdc kich ban tang tnfdng chung ciia nen kinh te vd thifc trang xu hudng gan day cd the dif bdo tSng tnfdng cua cdc khu vtfc kinh te Idn nam 2013:
Kjch bdn chu, tdng tnfdng kinh te 5 ca 3 khu vtfc deu cd nhiTng cdi thieu so vdi nam 20i2. Khu vtfc CN-XD se cd kha nang hoi phuc khi nhifng khd khan ve vdn dtfdc giai quyet. tdng tnfdng khd dat cao, nhtmg si: dtfctc cai Uiien hdn trong nam 2013 (5.9%). Khu vtfc NLNN dtf bao se tiep tuc giff mffc Sn dinh (3,4%), khu vUC djch vu se dal tdng tnfdng tSt hdn (6,2%).
Kjch bdn tdng trudng cao han, khu vifc CN-XD se d?t mffc cao, nhtfng vdi Snh hinh hi$n t»i, khd nang tang tnfdng ciSa khu virc ndy d mffc 7% la khdng nhiiu, ch! dat khodng 6,6%. Khu vffc DV se la nhan td' tdc d^ng quan trpng d^n tang tnfdng kinh te chung. Vdi td'c dd on dinh cd thi dat dffdc d mffc 7%. 6 kich bdn ndy, khu vffc NLNN cung se tang hdn vd d mffc 3,54%.
Tuy nhien, tiong tnfSng hop nSn kinh t^ gdp khd khan hdn, d kich bin tang tnfdng thap, khu vffc CN-XD chi dat d mffc xSfp xl nam 2012 (4,9%), khu vi^c DV vd NLNN cung giam, dat tffdng 4ng 5,8 vd 3,2%.a
