QUAN HE DOI NGOAI
CiyEIIIilJiSINSOSIGIJlOVIIIiriT''
m m m mi QDOG W CAN BII BEN • d
TH.S DUONG OiNH THINK VU X U A N TRUdNG
T
rong hai ngay 21 va22-8-2014, Chu tich Trung Quoc Tap Can Binh da cd chuyen tham cap nha nudc dau tien ke tir khi len nham chdc thang 3 nam 2013 den thii do Ulan Bator ciia Mdng Cd. Day la chuyen dau tien cua mdt vi nguyen thu quoc gia Trung Qudc den Mong Co ke tir han mdt thap ky qua. Theo gidi quan sat thi chuyen tham nay ciia Chu tich Trung Quoc ngoai viec nham tang cudng hpp tac vdi Ulan Bator trong cac ITnh vyc nhu khai thae tai nguyen khoang san, xay dyng Cff sd ha tang de md "con dudng tff lua" nhap khau nang luong cho Trung Quoc, thi cdn nham muc dich canh tranh chien luoc vdi My va Nhat Ban trong viec "ldi keo" Mong Co, de bao dam viec Iam sao Washington va Tokyo khong the su dung Mong Co lam mot trong nhirng"quan cd" trong chinh sach kiSm ch6 Trung Quoc. Chinh vi vay cung theo gidi
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quan sat nh^n dinh thi day chinh ia chuyen tham "ngoai giao diem huy?t"
ciia Chu tich Trung Quoc Tap Can Binh, Vay day thuc su cd phai la chuyen tham mang tinh chat ngoai giao thong thucmg hay cdn vi mgt muc dich nao khac? Bai viet nay nham muc dich nhin nh^n sau hon ve chien lupc ngoai giao ciia Trung Quoc dang sau chuyen tham nay.
1. Nhin lai truoc them chuyen tham Trudc them chuyen tham cua Chu tich Trung Quoc Tap Can Binh den Mdng Co thi tinh hinh the gidi ciing nhu tinh hinh ben trong noi bo cua Trung Qudc dang vo cung phirc tap, cang thang xung dgt lai ich dan xen. Tren the gidi va khu vuc do la cuoc khiing hoang an ninh quan su d Ukraina giiia Nga vdi My va phuong Tay, Trong khi My va mpt so nuoc phuang Tay ciing dang ''ban ron" voi nhirng cang thing a Libya, Syria, Ai Cap, Iraq va Afghanistan. Tai khu vyc,
NGHI£N Ciiu TRUNG QUeiC so 11(159)-2014
Chuyen tham ngoai giao "diem huyet".
anh chap bien dao giija Trung Quoc vdi ac nudc hen quan d ca Hoa Ddng va lien Dong ngay cang phirc tap va cang lang hon. Trong dd, dac biet la viec
= "rung Qudc ngang nhien thiet lap Khu
;' han dang phdng khdng (ADIZ) d Hoa
;jj)dng va ha d^t trai phep gian khoan HD- jjlsi tai viing dac quyen kinh te cua Viet -^ •Jam d Bien Dong, Iam khdng chi quan ,i,;je giia hai nudc cang thang them ma cdn ii;ay quan ngai cho ca cong ddng quoc te r ^pi bd Trung Qudc cd nhiJng mau thuan
•i"_nang tinh chat xung dot ve sac tpc cung 'lang ngay cang gay gat tai khu tu tri nhu
;Tay Tang, Tan Cuong, trong chinh
"luyen Trung Quoc ciing dang rat ndng jydi nhirng cao bupc ve tham nhung,,.
ifrudc nhirng cang thang d ca trong lan
^igoai nhu vay, ngoai viec tang cudng -quan he vdi cac qudc gia lang gieng thi tvipc Trung Quoc hudng su chu y ciia du lu^n trong nudc cung nhu cong ddng quoc te ra ben ngoai thdng qua nhirng chuyen tham cua cac nha lanh dao ciing la mpt chinh sach ngoai giao khdn kheo,
Mong Co vdi mpt nudc dien tich dirng thti 18 tren the gidi (khoang 1,565 tneu km2) nhung dan sd chi vao khoang 3 trieu ngudi, cd den 4,700 km dudng bien gidi vdi Trung Qudc cd vi tri dia ly quan trong khi nam giira hai nudc Idn la Nga va Trung Qudc'^'. Mdng Cd la mdt nudc giau tai nguyen khoang san cpng vdi vipc cd vi tri dia ly nhu vay nen Ulan Bator trd thanh tam diem trong chinh sach
ngoai giao cua cac nudc Idn la dieu duong nhien.
Nhu da biet, vao cuoi thang 11- 2012, My da thanh cdng trong viec ldi keo Mdng Cd nga ve phia minh va phuong Tay bang viec dua Mdng Cd gia nhgp Td chuc An ninh va Hap tac chau Au (OSCE), va trd thanh thanh vien thir 57 ciia to chirc nay,'^' day cd the xem la mdt ddng thai mang lai bat lai cho Trung Qudc. Bdi OSCE mac dii la td chirc cua cac quoc gia trong khoi chau Au (EU) nhung dung dang sau lai la My, mpt nudc ddng vai trd ndng cdt trong khdi.
La mdt nudc lang gieng an ngii d phia Bac cua Trung Quoc thi viec Mdng Co gia nhap OSCE cd nghTa la nudc nay da phan nao nga theo My va phucmg Tay.
Ciing bdi nhan thay "huyet diem" nay quan trpng nhu the nao nen vao trung tuan thang 4 - 2014 Bo trndng Quoc phdng My Chuck Hagel da c6 chuyen tham tdi Mdng Cd, kel thuc mpt khoang thdi gian das tdi 9 nam khdng cd mot Bd trudng Quoc phdng nao ciia My tdi Mdng Co, Theo nhu nhung danh gia ve chuyen tham nay cua ong C. Hagel thi cho rang chuyen tham nay vira nham the hien mong muon tang cudng quan he quan ,su giCra My vdi Mong Cd Quan he giira My va Mdng Cd da dat dupc nhirng thanh cdng nhat dinh khi Bp trudng Qudc phdng hai nudc Chuck Hagel va Dash Demberal Baterden da ky mdt tuyen bo chung khang dinh su ho tro
UGHIEN CUU TRUNG QUO'C SO 11(159) - 2 0 1 4 -
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DUONG DINH THjNH - VU XUAN TRJONG
quan sy ciia My danh cho Mdng Cd se ngay cang tang '^^
Them vao dd thi mdi quan he giira Mdng Cd va Nhat Ban ciing dang d chieu hudng tdt dep Dac biet la vao ngay 22- 07-2014 khi Tong thong Mdng Co Tsakhiagiin Elbegdorj da tham Tokyo, hai ben ky ban Hiep dinh thuang mai tu do (FTA). Mpt van kien het siic quan frong, gdp phan day manh hem nira hoat ddng giao thuang giua hai nen kinh te chau A nay khi chinh thirc cd hieu Iuc va phai thiy rang Nhat Ban la ddi tac thucmg mai dau tien ky FTA vdi Mdng Co
Chinh nhimg yeu td tren da lam cho Trung Quoc n h ^ ra tam quan trong cua Ulan Bator ddi vdi chien luoc ngoai giao da sac mau va da phuong hudng cita Bic Kinh, nd khdng chi mang tinh chat ve mat ngoai giao hay kinh te ma cdn la cupc cgnh tranh dia chien luac giira Trung Qudc vdi cac cudng quoc khac trong khu vuc cung nhu tren the gidi trong vipc tranh gianh anh hudng ciia cac nudc vdi Mdng Cd.
2. Qua trinh cua chuyen tham va mot so ket qua
Trong hai ngay 21 va 22 thang 8 nam 2014, Chu tich Trung Qu6c Tap Can Binh da cd chuyen tham cap nha nudc den Mdng Co. Day la chuyen cong du nudc ngoai thir 3 trong nam nay {sau chuyen tham va 'ham die Li khai mac Olympic Miia dong Idn thu- 22 ten Sochi -
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Nga va chuyen tham Han Qudc voi llmig 7/ 2014) ciia Chu tich Trung Qui Tap Can Binh. Chuyen tham Mong Co lan nay dung vao dip ky niem 65 nam viec hai nirdc thiet lap quan he ngoai giao va ky niem 20 nam sua doi Hiep uoc Hiju nghi va Hop tac giua hai nuoc.
Chuyen tham ciia Chu tich Tmng Quoc Tap Can Binh da duoc chuan bi lii vai thang trudc do. Hoi thang 5-2014 Tong thong Mong Co Tsakhiagiin Elbegdorj da co chuyen tham Trang Quoc de tham du Hoi nghi Thuong dinh ve Phoi hop Hanh dong va cac bien phap xay dung long tin a chau A (CICA • Conference on Inleraction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia) to chirc tai Thucmg Hai, Trung Quoc Trong thdi gian d Trung Quoc, Tong thong T. Elbegdorj cd cuoc gap mat Chii tich Tap Can Binh va mdi ong Tap Can Binh sang tham Mong Co™. De the hien thien chi nay thi ngay sau d6 thang 6/
2014, Bo tnidng Bp Ngoai giao Trung Qudc Vuong Nghi da co chuyen cong du den Mong Co. Day ducfc cho la chuyen tham nham sap xep cac ho^t dong trong chuong trinh nghi sir cho chuyen tham ciia Chu tich Trung Quoc Tap Can Binh.
Du luan cho rang chuyen tham Ian nay den Mong Co ciia Chii tich Trung Quoc Tap Can Binh duo-c xem la chuyen tham ngoai giao "diem huyef bdi le mot phan chuyen tham nay ngoai viec tang cuong moi quan he ngoai giao giira hai ben con
NGHIEN Ciiu TRUNG QUOG so 1 1 (159) - 2014
Chuyen tham ngoai giao "diem huyet"..
mang tinh chat "^ehe ngir" ddi vdi ca My va Nhat Ban trong viec canh tranh anh hudng ddi vdi Mdng Cd. Chuyen tham nay cirng dupc dem ra so sanh vdi chuyen cong du cd "trong diem/ trong tdm'" (pinpoint style) dau nam 2014 ciia chinh Chii tich Trung Qudc T^p Can Binh den Nga de tham du Le khai mac the van hdi Miia ddng d Sochi Mac dii chuyen tham dien ra trong mdt khoang thdi gian ngan nhung nhiing ndi dung trao ddi l?i phong phii va hieu qua.
Chuyen tham nay chi dien ra trong 48 gid ddng hd trong dd Chii tich Trung Quoc Tap Can Binh da tham du 12 hoat ddng song phuang va da phuang giiJa hai ben'^' Chuyen tham lan nay da nang tam quan he giiia Trung Qudc va Mdng Cd thanh mdi quan he ddi tac toan dien va tao da "kiem che" cac nudc Idn khac trong viec gay tam anh hudng vdi Mdng Co. Ke tir dd thi thu^t ngii ''ngoai giao CO trong diem" hay "ngogi giao diem huyet" (acupuncture-style) thudng dupc diing chi nhiing chuyen tham kieu nhu the nay, mot kieu "ngogi giao thuc ti"
mdi.
Hang thdng tan Tan Hoa xa dien ta ve chuyen tham ciia lan nay ciia Chii tich Tap Can Binh ''gidng nhu chuyin tham ngwdi ihdn"^^\ Trudc do, Phat ngdn vien cua Bp Ngoai giao Trung Qudc, ong Luu KiSn Sieu, cho biet "Chfnh phu Tnmg Qudc dgc biet de cao mSi quan he Tnmg Quoc - Mong Co, va coi viec phdt trien NGHIEN CIJU TRUNG QUtfC so 11(159) - 2014
quan hi ven Mong Cd la im Uen hang dau trong chinh sach ngogi giao vai cdc qudc gia lang gieng" Va ciing trong khudn khd ciia chuyen cdng du Mdng Cd ngay 22/08, Chii tich Trung Qudc Tap Can Binh da long trong tuyen bd "ton trong chit quyin vd toan ven lanh tho cua Mong Co"^^'.
Tuyen bd nay duoc xem nhu la lieu thudc ciia Bac Kinh nham tran an Qudc hdi Mdng Cd cGng nhu doi vdi ca ngudi dan Mdng Cd, vi nhieu ly do ma dac biet hem het la luan Mong Cd lo ngai Bac Kinh chiem doat tai nguyen thien nhien qua nhiing hpp ddng bat loi cho dat nudc. Ndi sa cua ngudi Mdng Cd trong ban mdt thap ky qua da tang len tung ngay khi dia vi ciia nen kinh te Trung Qudc tren the gidi va trong khu vyc ngay cang Idn manh Cong vdi viec Idn manh ve kinh te thi hien nay Trung Qudc dang tim moi each de tao dung va dinh hinh nhiing nguyen tac, thda thuan, the che va luat phap nham phuc vu cho lpi ich ciia chinh Trung Qudc. Ciing vdi do la tinh trang ngudi Trung Qudc nhap cu trai phep, rdi khai thae vang bat hop phap, budn lau ma tiiy, gian lan hang hda tai Mdng Co ciing khien mdi lo ngai nay cang gia tang
Cling trong khudn khd ciia chuyen tham nay, Trung Qudc da cd ldi mdi Mdng Cd tham gia vao ke hoach xay dyng con dudng to lua va mdi Ulan Bator gia nhap Dien dan Hop tac Kinh te chau A - Thai Binh Duong (APEC)
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Dt/ONG OINH THfNH - VU XUAN TRl/ONG
trong nam 2014 va hiia hen se van dong cho Mdng Cd trd thanh mot thanh vien thudng true ciia dien dan nay'^\
Phai thay rang Mong Cd khong nam ngoai chinh sach ngoai giao tong the va tich cue cua Trung Qudc trong viec rang buoc cac nudc vao lien ket lai ich, khien cac nudc phu thudc nhieu hon vao Trung Qudc. Trong hon mot thap ky qua, Trung Qudc luon la ddi tac thuang mai Idn nhat dong thdi la nha dau tu nudc ngoai Idn nhat ciia Mdng Cd Theo sd heu thong ke thi cd hem 90% cac san pham xuat khau ciia Mong Co dugc xuat sang Trung Quoc, trong dd chii yeu la cac loai khoang san nhu than da, ddng. Trong so cac doanh nghiep nitdc ngoai dang ky dau tu vao Mdng Cd, doanh nghiep Trung Qudc chiem tdi 49%. Han thS hien tai Trung Qudc cdn la ban hang xuat khau hang tieu diing gia re sang Mdng Co Theo Tan Hoa Xa trong vdng 10 nam, trao ddi thuang mai giira hai nudc da tang tir 324 trieu USD (2002) len 6 ty USD (nam 2013)'".
Theo cac nha phan tich, viec Trung Qudc va Mdng Cd tang cudng hpp tac kinh te va thuang mai, bao gom ca khu vuc thuang mei tu do, khdng chi md them mpt nhanh mdi cho "Con dudng to lua" duac dng Tap Can Binh dS ra, ma cdn gliip cho Mdng Cd vdn la mot qudc gia giau tai nguyen khoang san cd the tim duac thi trudng tieu thu. Trong khi dd, Trung Quoc co the thuc hien y do tan»
cudng khai thae cac ngudn tai nguyen nang lucmg tren dat lien, cimg vdi cac ngudn nang luong den tir Nga va cac nudc Trung A khac, hinh thanh mang ludi cung cap nang lupng hoan thien hon, giam bdt ap luc phai khai thae nan"
lupng tren bien cung nhu su phu thuoc vao chi mpt nudc nao do.
Ciing phai thay rang Ulan Bator luon theo dudi chinh sach "con dirffng tliit ba", tire la vira duy tri hda khi vdi Nga va Trung Qudc, vira md rdng quan he mat thiet vdi cac nudc chau A khac dat biet la Nhat Ban. Tuy nhien cung co ngudi cho rang My thuc su da trd thanh
"lang giing Iht'r ba" ciia Mdng Co""'.
Mac dii mpt bd phgn dan chung van gan bd vdi Nga ve van hda va chinh tri va nhieu ngudi Mdng Co ndi beng Nga nhung theo nha nghien ciru Franck BiUe, dai hoc Cambridge cho ring Mdng Co tu nh§n cd ciing nen van hda gan voi phuang Tay hon va mudn chimg to sir khac biet ay vdi cac nudc chau A khac""
Hang tin AFP dan ldi Sumati Luvsandendev, Giam doc Quy Sant Maral, mdt to chirc nghien ciru va khao sat phi lpi nhuan tai Mong Co, cho biet Ulan Bator cd truySn thdng "nghi ngcf su cd mgt ciia Trung Quoc trong nen kmh te nudc nay. Vi vay chuySn tham ciia dng TJp Can Binh nhim chimg minh rang Bac Kinh da sin sang dap irng mong mudn ciia Mdng Co tang cudng
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N G H I ! N Cl)U TRUNG OUOC so 1 1 (159) - 2014Chuyen tham ngoai giao "diem huyet"..
•cac dich vu cho vay va dau tu ciia Trung Qudc khi dng hiia hen se cung cap cho Ulan Bator mdt loat cac hd trp can thiet.
Theo Giao su Sergey Lousianin danh gia thi mpt loat uu dai danh cho Mdng Cd cua Bac Kinh qua chuyen tham ciia Chii tich Trung Qudc T^p Can Binh cd muc tieu chinh tiem an la tham nhap sau han nii'a vao khu vuc Ndi Mdng va Ngoai Mdng. Cung chinh vi ma Chu tich Trung Quoc Tap Can Binh da tuyen bd trudc qudc hdi M d n g Cd rang dng cam thay hai Idng khi da cd gan 30 thuang vu dupc ky ket nhan chuyen tham nudc lang gieng Ian nay''^'
3 . M o t vai n h a n xet ve chuyen t h a m Chuyen tham ciia Chu tich Trung Qudc Tgp Can Binh den Mdng Cd lan nay phan nao phan anh chinh sach ngoai giao da sac mau ciia Trung Qudc ke tir sau Dai hdi 18 Dang Cpng San Trung Qudc. Day la mpt trong nhijng chuyen tham cd trpng diem, trpng tam ro rang dupc uu tien dat ra tir trudc Chuyen tham Mdng Cd lan nay ciia Chii tich Trung Quoc Tap Can Binh da dat d u a c khong chi ve m u c dich ngoai giao va kinh te ma cdn ca ve mat chien lupc. Vdi nhiing thda thuan da dat dupc trong chuyen tham nay thi phan nao muc dich
"niu giu'' Ulan Bator trudc nhiing anh hudng ciia cac n u d c nhu My, Nhat.. ciia BSc Kinh da dat d u a c phan nao. Theo nh^n djnh ciia gioi phan tich, chuyen
tham Mdng Co theo kieu "diSm huyet"
cda nha lanh dao Trung Qudc Tap Can Binh cang cho thay su linh hoat va tinh thuc dung trong chinh sach ngoai giao ciia Bac Kinh. Khi Trung Qudc thay
"huyet dgo" cua minh yeu hoac s o h d thi ngay sau dd se d u a c "gia co" them. Vdi Mdng Cd ciing nhu cac nudc lang gieng xung quanh, Trung Quoc se khdn kheo va linh hoat trong ddi ngoai de nham phuc vu cho lpi ich qudc gia ciia chinh minh Mdng Cd la mpt n u d c lang gieng a phia Bac cd vi tri dac biet quan trpng nam giira khu vuc dia chien lupc d Ddng Bac A, chinh vi vay Mdng Co rat dang duac Trung Qudc "di tdm" den.
CEO THfCH:
(*) Diem huyet: Co 3 loai huyet la Tu huyet. Ma huyet va Sinh huyet. Diem huyet la diing npi cdng cong kich vao nhirng yeu huyet, tit huyet cua doi phuang de gianh chien thSng (Viec nay doi hoi phai c6 ky nang- trinh dp, co tam quan sat nhat dinh). Con d day "diem huyet" no mang tinh chat ve ngoai giao, con dupc gpi la "ngoai giao diem huyet". Theo nliu ly giai cua gidi trayen thong Trang Quoc thi no cung cd nghia la "ngoai giao trpng diem/
trpng tam". Co nghia dc chi nhung chuyen ngoai giao cua cac nha lanh dao diln ra trong mpt khoang thdi gian nhat dinh (thudng la
NGH1£N C|)U TRUNG QUO'C SO 11(159) - 2 0 1 4 -
35
Dt/ONG DiNH THINH - VO XUAN TRUdNG
ngdn), da co "trpng tam'" tir trudc va ket qua sau cimg dat duoc thudng la tich cue.
1. http //chinhphu.vn/portal/pagc/portal/c hinhphu/NuocCHXHCNVietNam/ChiTietVeQ uocGia?diplomacyNaticnId-150&diplomacyZ oncld-85&vietnam-0 (Nga\' tniy cap:
8/9/2014)
2. http//\%WAV oscc.org/cio/97372 (Ngay tray cap 25/8/2014)
3. http7/\\'\\'\v.vietnamplus.vn/nhat-ban- va-mong-co-ky-hiep-dinh-thuong-mai-tu- do/272256.vnp (Ngay tray cap 23/8/2014)
4. http://\\A\-\v.thecpochtimes,com/n3/902 508-chinesc-lcadcr-xi-jinping-visits-mongolia/
(Ngaytruy cap 25/8/2014)
5. http.//www.wantinews com/ncws- 6352219-Video-Wang-Xi-Jmping-Sochi-39s- taIk-line:-43-hoiirs-to-attend-thc-12-games- activities.html (Ngay truy cap: 24/05/2014) 6. http 7/ne\vs.xinliuanet.com/cnglisli/chi na/2014-08/25/c_l33583257.htm (Ngay tray cap: 30/08/2014)
7. http://w'\\'\v scmp com/news/china/arti cle/1579609/takc-ride-our-exprcss-train-xi- jinping-tcUs-mongolia (Ngay tray c|p:
28/08/2014)
8. httpV/citincws.net/the-gioi/bao-nga—
trung-quoc—dua-mong-co-vao-quy-dao—cua- niinh-RHRFQRA/ (Ngay tmy cap: 03/9/2014)
9. http://nc\vs.xinhuanct.com/english/chi na/2014-08/21/c_133574512.htm (Ngay tray cap: 28/8/2014)
10 Washingtcn da tien hanh cac bien phap tang cudng hop tac quan su vdi Ulan- Bator va ky vong Mong Co dong vai trd doi trpng vdi Nga -Tra.ag. Julian Dierkcs, chuyen
gia ve Mong Co thupc dai hpc British Columbia luu y chinh sach doi ngo^ii cua Mong Cd dat tren nen tang "quan binh" giBa Nga va Trung Quoc. Nguon: littp://w\viv, afp.com/cn/nodc/2801338/ (Ngay truy dp' 12/09/2014)
11. Iittps7/sg. finance. yahoo.com/ne\vs/mo ngolia-balances-betwcen-dragon-bear-07342
1927.html (Ngay tray cap: 12/09/2014) 12 http.//w\\^v.eias-org/asian-nc\vs- outlook/niongolia-and-chma-upgrade-bilatcral- ties-during-xi-jinpings-visit (Ngay tmy cap:
28/8/2014)
TAI LifiU TIIAM KHAO 1. Xi Jinping to Visit Mongolia, (Tap Can Binh tham Mdng Co) By Shannon Tiezzi, August 14, 2014 (Nguon http://thediplomat, com/ 2014/08/xi-jinping-to-visit-mongolia, ngaytray cap: 20/8/2014)
2. Chinese Leader Xi Jinping Visits Mongolia, (Nha lanh dao Trang Quoc Tap Cp Binh tham Mong Co) By Apollo News, August 22, 2014 (Nguon: littp://\v\™
thcepochtimes. com/ n3/902508-chinese- Icader-xi-jinpmg-visits-mongolia/ ,ngay truy cap: 25/08/2014)
3 Interpretation: Xi Jinping "pinpoint style" What are the characteristics of Foreign Affairs (Giai thich: Dac diem cong tac doi ngoai CO trpng diem cua Tap Can Binh la gi), (Nguon: http://ww\v.ene\vsl63.com/2014/08/
26/interpretation-xi-j inping-pinp oint-style- what-are-the-charactcristics-of-foreign-afFairs- 51148.html, ngay tray cap: 28/8/2014)
