Tap chi Khoa hocxa hoi mienTrung, So 04 (60) - 2019
Cac nhan to anh hUcrng den lucing khach du Ijch qudcte den Viet Nam: mot phan tfch thUc nghiem
Hoang Hong Hiep
Vien Khoa hocxa hgi vdng Trung 86 Email lien he: [email protected] Pham Thai Ha
Ban Quan ly Khu cong nghe cao va cac khu cong nghiep Da Nang
Tom tat:
SCf dung phucfng phap trdc luang Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS), bai bao Udc lUdng cac nhan to anh hu6ng den luong du l<hach quoc te den Viet Nam, giai doan 2010- 2016. Ket qua udc luang cho thay, thu nhap binh quan dau ngU6i, kha nang chi tieu, nang luc sU dung internet, quy mo dan so cua cac quoc gia cua du khach, la nhCfng nhan to co anh hudng y nghTa den luong khach quoc te den Viet Nam. Ngoai ra, ty gia hoi doai song phucfng, kim ngach thuong mai song phuong, khoang each dia ly song phuong cung la nhu'ng nhan to CO anh hudng y nghia den lugng du khach qudc te den Viet Nam. Ket qua nghien cUu nay cho phep chung toi ggi md mgt so ham y chfnh sach nham phat trien du lich Viet Nam trong thdi gian tdi.
TCr khoa: Nhan to; Cau du Ijch; Du lich; Du khach quoc te; Viet Nam.
Abstract:
Using the panel data FGLS method, the paper analyzes determinants of international tourist arrivals to Viet Nam in the period 2010-2016. The results indicate that GDP per capita, expenditure, internet capacity, and population of tourists'origin countries are significant determinants affecting the number of foreign visitors to Viet Nam. Additionally bilateral exchange rates,bilateraltrade,geographicaldistancesaredeterminants that have a significant influence on the number of international visitors to Viet Nam.The results allow us to suggest some policy implications for Viet Nam's tourism development in the upcoming years.
Keywords: Determinants,Tourism, Tourism demand. International tourists, Viet Nam.
Ngay nhan bai: 27/6/2019 Ngay duyet dang: 26/8/2019
1. Dat van de
Viet Nam co tiem nang to Idn trong phat trien nganh du lich mang tam quoc te va thuc tien phat trien nganh kinh te du lich quoc gia thdi gian qua cung da ghi nhan nhu'ng budc phat trien manh me cua nganh. Viet Nam dan trd thanh dia diem du Ijch yeu thich cua du khach quoc te. Neu nam 1990, Viet Nam chi mdi don nhan dugc khoang 250 nghin lugt khach quoc te thi den nam 2016 Viet Nam da ddn nhan 10.013 nghin lugt khach qudcte. Mac du nganh du Ijch Viet Nam da dat dugc nhieu thanh tuu to Idn va ngay cang ddng gdp quan
Hoang Hong Hiep & PhamJI^ijjg
trong vao phat trien kinh te quoc gia (Nguyen Thi Thu HJOng, 2017), song nganh du Ijch quoc gia hien van dang doi mat vdi nhieu han che, thach thu'c to 16n. Trong do, thj phan du khach quoc te cua Viet Nam trong khoi ASEAN con kha han che, nam 2016 ty le nay chi dat mufc kha khiem ton 9% (nguon: WDI 2017), trong khi Viet Nam co tiem nang va lOi the rat I6n trong canh tranh thu hut du khach quoc te (Nguyen Thi Thu Hilcfng, 2017). 9ac biet, Viet Nam hien dang doi mat v6i SLT chenh lech rat I6n ve luong du khach quoc te den tCr cac quoc gia khac nhau (phu luc 1). Dieu nay dat ra yeu cau can thiet phai thuc hien nghien cu'u xac dinh cac nhan to co anh hudng den luong du khach quoc te tU cac quoc gia khac nhau vao Viet Nam.
Bieu nay co y nghia khoa hpc va thuc tien trong viec giup Viet Nam dinh vj thi trudng muc tieu khach du ljch quoc te, dong thdi dieu chinh chinh sach thu hut du khach quoc te gan vdi nhCfng dac trung cua quoc gia do.
SUdung phUdng phap kinh te luong danh cho dUlieu bang, bai bao Udc luong cac nhan to anh hudng den lUdng du khach quoc te cua 20 quoc gia den Viet Nam, giai doan 2010- 2016, gom: Campuchia, Canada, Trung Quoc, DUc, Ha Lan, Han Quoc, My, Indonexia, Italia, Lao, Nga, Malaixia, Nhat Ban, Oc, Phap, Philipines,Tay Ban Nha, Anh, Thai Lan, Singapo. Ket qua nghien cUu nay cho phep chung toi gai md mot so ham y doi vdi chinh sach phat trien du lich cua Viet Nam trong thdi gian tdi.
2. Khung ly thuyet va xac dinh mo hinh kinhte lUtfng
Du lich quoc te duoc xem nhU la mpt hinh thufc di ciS quoc te tam thdi nham muc dich tham quan, du lich vdi nhieu hinh thu'c nhU: cac ky nghi, cac chuyen cong can, tham nom ban be, hp hang, tham quan dia diem du ljch va nhieu hlnh thUc khac. Cac nghien cUu cau du Ijch cho thay rang cau du ljch dUcfc tiep can bdi diem diva den (Song va Witt, 2000; Lim, 1997). Nghien cilu cau du lich quoc te den Viet Nam tU nhUng quoc gia khac nhau, chung toi tiep can cau du Ijch quoc te gan vdi nhu'ng dac trUng cua quoc gia cua du khach dat trong cac moi quan he song phuong giUa Viet Nam (diem den) va cac quoc gia do (diem di). Theo do, cau du lich quoc te trong nghien cUu nay dUdc xac djnh bang tong luong du khach quoc te den Viet Nam theo tUng quoc gia cu the (Surugiuva cpng sU, 2011; Leit, 2015).Vecacnhan toanh hudng den luong du khach quoc te, cac mo hlnh thuc nghiem su" dung: mUc thu nhap cua du khach va quy md dan so cua quoc gia du khach (Serra va cong sU, 2014; Zhang, 2015; Chasapopoulos va cong sU, 2014;
Surugiu va cong sU, 2011; Leit, 2015}, thUOng mai song phuong (Phakdisoth va Kim, 2007; Habibi va cong sU, 2009; Leit, 2010; Surugiu va cpng sU, 2011), ty gia hoi doai va khoang each song phuong (Phakdisoth va Kim, 2007; Surugiu va cpng su, 2011). Trong boi canh the gidi ngay cang phang hon nhd vai trd cua internet, viec tiep can thong tin va lUa chon diem den du Ijch cung c6 the phu thupc rat nhieu vao co sd ha tang internet cua quoc gia du khach va nang luc sU dung internet cua du khach nudc do. Do vay, day cung cd the la nhan to cd anh hudng y nghia den luong khach du lich quoc te vao Viet Nam. Tren cosd khung phan tich tren, chung toi dexuat mo hinh Udc luong cac nhan to anh hudng den luong du khach quoc te den Viet Nam nhusau:
Tourismjj = 0^-1- a,lncome,j+ a/OP,,+ a3Expense,^+ a^Exchange^j+ appen^^ + apistance + ajnternetj + £,j (1)
Trong do:
Tourism^^: do ludng bdi tong so luong du khach quoc te den Viet Nam tU qudc gia i vao nam t. DU lieu cua bien Tourism dUdc thu thap tUTong cucThong ke.
Tap chf Khoa hoc xa hpi mienTrung, So 04 (60) - 2Q19
POP-,: Phan anh nhu cau du Ijch quoc te tiem nang cua nudc i vao nam t, dugc do ludng bdi tdng dan sd cua qudc gia du khach. Chung tdi mong dgi mgt tac dgng duong cua POP den sd lugng du khach qudc te vao Viet Nam. DU lieu dugc thu thap tCr WDI 2017 (World Development Indicators).
Income^,: phan anh kha nang chi tieu cua du khach, dugc do ludng bdi GDP binh quan dau ngudi cija qudc gia i vao nam t. Ky vgng tac dgng dUdng cua Income den sd lugng du khach qudc te vao Viet Nam. DO lieu dugc thu thap tir WDI 2017 (World Development Indicators).
Expense^,; Co the thay, GDP binh quan dau ngudi mdi chi phan anh kha nang tai chinh cua du khach. Do vay chijng tdi them vao nhan td Expense de phan anh kha nang chi tieu cua du khach, vUa phan anh tap quan tieu dung cua qudc gia i vao nam t, dUdc do lUdng bdi phan tram chi tieu hang hda va djch vu trong tdng chi tieu qudc gia. Ky vgng tac ddng dUdng cija Expense den sd lugng du khach qudc te vao Viet Nam. DCi lieu dugc thu thap ti^WDI 2017 (World Develsopment Indicators).
Exchange^,: phan anh ty gia trao ddi ngoai te giufa dong tien Viet Nam (VND) va ddng tien qudc gia i tai thdi diem t (qudc gia cCia du khach qudc te}, dugc do ludng bdi ty gia hdi doai song phugng (1 ddng ngoai te ddi dugc bao nhieu ddng Viet Nam). Ky vgng tac ddng dugng cija Exchange den sd lUdng du khach qudc te vao Viet Nam. DU lieu dugc thu thap tUUNCTAD STAT.
Open^,: phan anh gia trj thugng mai song phuong giUa Viet Nam va qudc gia i vao nam t, dugc do ludng bdi (tdng kim ngach xuat nhap khau song phugng giufa Viet Nam va qudc gia i)/GDP qudc gia i. Ky vgng tac ddng dUdng cua Open den sd lugng du khach qudc te vao Viet Nam. DU lieu dugc thu thap tU WDI 2017 (World Development Indicators).
Distance,: phan anh khoang each dja ly giOa Viet Nam va qudc gia i, dugc do ludng bdi khoang each giUa thu do cua Viet Nam vdi thu do cua qudc gia du khach. Ky vgng tac ddng am cua Distance den sd lUgng du khach qudc te vao Viet Nam. DU lieu dugc thu thap tUCEPII database.
Internet,: phan anh cosd ha tang qudc gia du khach va nang luc tiep can thdng tin qudc te qua internet cua du khach qudc gia i tai thdi diem t, dugc do ludng bdi tdng sd may chii an toan tren 1 trieu dan (Secure Internet servers per 1 million people). Ky vgng tac ddng dUdng cua Internet den sd lugng du khach qudc te vao Viet Nam. DU lieu dugc thu thap tU WDI 2017 (World Development Indicators).
3. Phuong phap, thu tuc va ket qua udc luang
Sil dung phuong phap kinh te lugng danh cho dur lieu bang (panel data), chung tdi tien hanh udc lugng phugng trinh (1) de nhan dien cac nhan td anh hudng flen sd lugng du khach qudc te den Viet Nam tU 20 qudc gia tren the gidi', giai doan 2010-2016, gdm: Campuchia, Canada, Trung Qudc, Bile, Ha Lan, Han Qudc, My, Indonexia, Italia, Lao, Nga, Malaixia, Nhat Ban, Uc, Phap, Philipines,Tay Ban Nha, Anh,Thai Lan, Singapo. Nam 2016, tdng sd khach qudc te vao Viet Nam den tU20 qudc gia nay chiem khoang 85,3% tdng sd du khach qudc te vao Viet Nam. Cac qudc gia cd lugng khach vao Viet Nam thap (<0,5% tdng sd du khach qudc te vao Viet Nam) nhu BlDan Mach, Na Uy, Niu-di-lan,Thuy Bien, Thuy ST khdng dugc dua vao nghien cUu nham giam sU thien lech cua mau. Rieng Dai Loan khdng dugc dua vao nghien cufu bdi cac sd lieu vT md cija Dai Loan khdng dugc tim thay day du tai WDI, UNCTAD STAT DU lieu cCia cac bien dugc thu thap tCrTdng cucThdng keViet Nam, UNCTAD STAT, WDI, CEPII database.
Hoang Hong Hiep & PhamThgijjg
£)au tien, chung toi thuc hien Kiem dinh cac nhan to khuech dai phuong sai (variance inflation factors/VIF) bdi Kennedy (2008) de kiem tra hien tuqng da cpng tuyen giUa cac bien cCia phuong trinh (1). Ket qua kiem djnh chi ra rang, mo hlnh it cd kha nang ton tai hientuong da cong tuyen giUa cac bien giai thich. Tuy nhien, he so VIF dan phan cua bien Inlncome va bien Lnlnternet kha cao, do vay chung toi dUa lan lUcft cac bien nay vao mo hinh, ket qua Udc luong ca 3 mdhinh (1), (2), va (3) cho thay cac he so udc lUOng cac bien deu kha on dinh, mot lan nUa cung conhan djnh gia thuyet da cpng tuyen khdng bj vi pham. Ve mat ky thuat, dU lieu bang cd the ton tai cac tac dpng nhdm, cac tac ddng thdi gian, hoac ca hai. NhUng tac dpng nay cd the la CO djnh hoac nglu nhien. Ket qua kiem djnh Hausman (bang 1) chi ra rang cac md hinh tac dpng ngau nhien (Random Effects Model - REM) cd the phu hop hon cac mo hlnh tac dpng CO dinh (Fixed Effects Model - FEM). Sau dd, chung tdi thUc hien cac kiem djnh can thiet de kiem tra cac gia djnh cua mo hinh: Kiem djnh Modified Wald (Greene, 2000) dUOC sCf dung de kiem tra ve phuong sai sai so thay doi (Heteroscedasticity), kiem djnh Wald (Wooldridge, 2002 ; Drukker, 2003} dddc sCf dung de kiem tra ve hien tUOng tutuong quan (Autocorrelation).
Ket qua cac kiem djnh nay chi ra rang cac md hinh hoi quy deu ton tai dong thdi cac hien tuong phuong sai sai so thay doi, tUOng quan chuoi bac mdt (bang 1). Do vay, cac ket qua Udc luong bdi cac phuong phap OLS, FEM, va REM cd the bj chech hoac khdng hieu qua (Greene, 2000).
Trong trudng hop cac gia djnh cua mdhinh deu bj vi pham dong thdi, phUdng phap Udc lupng Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) la sU lUa chon phu hop de dieu chinh cung luc cac hien tuong tren (Beckva Katz, 1995;Hoechle, 2007). Ket qua hoi quy bdi FGLS dUOc trinh bay trong bang 1. Nhin chung, cac sai sd chuan cua cac he so hoi quy bdi phuong phap FGLS giam dang ke so vdi cac phuong phap OLS, REM, FEM, dieu do dong nghTa rang cac he so hoi quy dUdc Udc lUdng chinh xac hon bdi phuong phap FGLS (doi chieu bang 1 vdi phu luc 2).
Ket qua Udc luong tU bang 1 cho thay: NhU ky vpng, he so Udc luong cua bien dan so la mang dau duong va dat mUcy nghTa thong ke 1%, chira rang luong du khach qudcte vao Viet Nam bj anh hudng bdi quy md dan sd cua quoc gia nudc ngoai. Lien quan den cac nhan to nang luc tai chinh va tap quan tieu dung, he so Udc luong cua bien GDP binh quan dau ngUdi mang dau duong va dat mUc y nghia 1%, ham y rang luong du khach qudcte den Viet Named tuong quan dUOng vdi thu nhap binh quan dau ngUdi cua qudc gia du khach.TUdng tU, chi tieu hang hda djch vu cija qudc gia nUdc ngoai cung cd anh hudng tfch cUc va y nghTa den cau du Ijch quoc te. Lien quan den do md ngoai thuong, chung tdi tim thay rang thuong mai song phuong giUa Viet Nam va quoc gia du khach cd moi quan he tddng quan duang vdi luong khach du khachden tUquoc gia do dmUcy nghTa 1%. Kham pha nay cung phu hop vdi ket luan cua Leit (2010)ve vai trd tich cue cua thuang mai song phuang den cau du Ijch qudcte. Nhu ky vong, he sd cua bien ty gia hdi doai song phuong mang dau dUOng va dat mUc y nghTa thong ke 1 %.
Dieu nay chi ra rang, ddng tien Viet Nam dUOc djnh gia thap hdn so vdi ddng tien qudc gia nudc ngoai se cd tac dung khuyen khich thu hut du khach qudc te tU qudc gia do den Viet Nam.
Trong thdi dai phat trien cua cdng nghe thong tin, nang luc sCr dung internet se la dieu kien quan trong giup du khach cd the d§ dang tiep can va tim hieu cac thdng tin du Ijch ve nudc sd tai. Nhu ky vong, ket qua Udc lUdng chi ra moi quan he tUOng quan dUOng giUa luong du khach qudc te va nang lUc internet qudc gia du khach d mUc y nghTa thdng ke 1 %.Tuang tu nhu nghien cdu cua Phakdisoth and Kim (2007), he so cua bien khoang each dja ly giufa Viet Nam va
Tap chi Khoa hocxa hoi mienTrung, So 04 (60) - 2019
qudc gia du khach dat gia trj am nhU ky vong d mUc y nghTa 1 %. Dieu nay ham y rang, du khach den Viet Nam cd xu hddng gia tang tCr cac quoc gia gan Viet Nam hon. Ndi each khae, Viet Nam dang gap khd khan trong thu hut du khaeh qudc te each xa Viet Nam. NhUvay, nhOng each trd ve mat dia ly ed anh hudng y nghTa den sd luang khaeh qudc te den Viet Nam. De kiem soat sU khae biet trong cau du Ijch vao Viet Nam den tU cac nddc ASEAN do nhdng dac trung kinh te, van hda, xa hdi, dja ly cCia cdng dong cac qudc gia ASEAN tao nen, chung tdi nhap vao md hlnh bien gia (ASEAN) de loai bd sU khac biet nay. Ket qua Ude luong chi ra rang, luong khaeh den tU cac nude ASEAN It han mdt each y nghTa so vdi cae quoc gia khae. Dieu thu vj khi chung tdi nhap vaomdhinhbiengia ASEAN de loai bdsU khac biet, he sd bien khoang each dja ly tang tU 1,29 len 1,33, ham y tfnh gan dja ly tUdng doi cua nhieu nude ASEAN so vdi Viet Nam khien mdc do tac ddng cua bien khoang each dja lyden bien phu thude giam xuong 0,04 dan vj (1,33-1,29).
Bang 1: Cac nhan to anh hUdng cTen cau du Ijch quoc te cua Viet Nam, giai doan 2010-2016
M o hinh PhUoing p h a p i^dc lutfng POP
internet Expense Exchange Open Distance Income ASEAN Hang so AR(1) Tdnq so quan sat
Kiem d m h Wooldrige (Autocorrelation) Kiem d j n h Modified Wald
(groupwise heteroskedasticity) Kiem d i n h cross-sectional correlation Kiem dinh Hausman
(1) FGLS 0.746***
(0.0654) 0.373***
(0.0427) 0.119 (0.0969) 0.115***
(0.0356) 72790.3'**
(245C3.1) -1.149***
(0.133)
-1.696 (1.324) Cd 140
(21 FGLS 0.824***
(0.0620) 0.166***
(0.0629) 0.171*
(0.0893) 0.105***
(0.0328) 98971.1***
(24890.7) -1.290***
(0.127) 0.644***
(0.140)
-7.299***
(1.700) Cd 140
(3) FGLS 0.800***
(0.0561) 0.105 (0.0645) 0.313***
(0.106) 0.0965***
(0.0258) 121359.2***
(22465.5) - 1 . 3 3 1 * * * (0.109) 0.681***
(0.129) -0.592**
(0.263) -6.674***
(1.703) Co 140 84.5***
246.6***
121.7***
7.01 84.5***
Ghi chu: Sai sd chuan (Standard errors) md ta trong ngoac ddn. * p,„,„^ < 0.1, ** p,,,„, <
0.05, ***p,^,„,< 0.01.
Cac Udc lugng FGLS da xur ly van de phUdng sai sai sd thay ddi (robust standard errors).
Hoang Hong Hiep & PhgrnTtiaijHa
4. Ket luan va nhufng ham y chmh sach
SCr dung phuang phap kinh te lUdng danh eho dU lieu bang (panel data), bai bao tien hanh udc luang eac nhan toanh hudng den cau du ljch quocteden Viet Nam tU 20 qudc gia trenthegidi, giai doan 2010-2016. Cae ket qua kiem djnh cho phep chung tdi chpn phUdng phap FGLS de Udc luang cae tham sd cua md hinh. Ket qua Udc lUcfng cho thay, cac dac trUng eua cac qudc gia du khaeh nhuthu nhap binh quan dau ngudi, kha nang chi tieu, nang lUc sU dunginternet, quymddanso, la nhu'ng nhan toed anh hudng y nghTa den lUdng khach qude te den Viet Nam. Lien quan den eac nhan td song phuong gida Viet Nam va qude gia du khaeh, chung tdi tim thay rang, ty gia hoi doai, kim ngach thuong mai song phuang, khoang each dja ly gida 2 qudc gia, la nhUng nhan to cd anh hudng y nghTa den luang du khach den Viet Nam.
Ket qua nghien cdu nay cho phep chung tdi goi md mot sd ham chinh sach nham phat trien du Ijch cua Viet Nam trong thdi gian tdi:
f\/lgt la, ehinh sach marketing thu hut du khaeh quoc te den Viet Nam can tap trung vao cae qudc gia cd dan so ddng, cd mUc thu nhap binh quan dau ngudi cao, ed nang ldc chi tieu hang hda va djch vu cao.
Ha//d, Viet Nam va eac cdng ty du lich ndi rieng can tap trung cai thien chat luong cac website trong viec cung cap day du va da dang eac thdng tin du ljch can thiet eho du khach qudc te, nhat la ddi vdi eac ddi tac ASEAN.
Ba la, chinh sach ty gia hdi doai linh hoat theo hudng lam yeu ddng ndi te khdng chi kich thich xuat khau, ma cdn gdp phan thuc day thu hut khach du Ijch den Viet Nam. Theo do, ehinh sach xuc tien thu hut du khach quoc te den Viet Nam trong ngan han va trung ban can Uu tien tap trung vao cac qude gia cd ty gia hoi doai song phuang theo hudng cd sU mat gia tUdngdoicuaVND.
Bon la, ehinh sach xuc tien thu hut du khach qudc te den Viet Nam can tap trung han vao cae qudc gia cd kim ngach thuong mai song phuong vdi Viet Nam cao, bdi le du Ijch va ngoai thuong ludn cd mdi tuang quan ddng bien chat che.
Warn/a, Viet Nam can dinh hudng va tao cache chfnh sach khuyen khfch cae hang hang khdng md eac dudng bay ket ndi Viet Nam vdi cac trung tam giao thong cua cac qudc gia, cua cac khu vUc kinh te nang ddng, nham rut ngan khoang each dia ly gida cae thi trudng du khach muc tieu vdi eac diem den quan trpng eua Viet Nam. Dac biet, can djnh hudng eae hang hang khdng dat eac dudng bay trung chuyen tai eae trung tam trung ehuyen khach hang dau cua eac khu vdc kinh te tren the gidi. Day la giai phap mau chdt de gom khach, ha chi phi bay cho du khaeh, qua dd rut ngan khoang each kinh te thdng qua giam chi phi van tai de thue day thu hut du khaeh quoc te d nhCfng thj trudng du lich tiem nang nhdng kha xa Viet Nam.
Sdu la. chinh sach thu hut du khach den tU khu vUc ASEAN can cd sudieu chinh phu hap nham tan dung ldi the ve tfnh gan ve khoang each dia ly, cdng ddng kinh te chung ASEAN, chinh sach mien thi thuc eho edng dan ASEAN.
Tap chi Khoa hpc xa hpi mien Trung, So 04 (60) - 2019
Chu thfch:
1. Nam 2016, tdng sd khach qudc te vao Viet Nam den tU 20 qudc gia nay chiem khoang 85,3% tdng sd du khach qudc te vao Viet Nam.
Tai lieu tham khao:
Beck, N., and J. N. Katz. (1995). What to do (and not to do) with time-series cross-section data. American Political Science Review, 89, 634-647.
Chasapopoulos, P., Butter, F.A.G., Mihaylov, E. (2014). Demand for tourism in Greece: A panel data analysis using the gravity model. InternationalJournal of Tourism Policy, 3,173-191.
Drukker, D. M. (2003).Testing for serial correlation in linear panel-data models. TheStata Jouma/, 2(3), 168-177.
Greene, W. H. (2000). Econometrics Analysis. Chapter 14, New York University, Prentice Hall International Inc.
Habibi, R, Rahim, K.A., Ramchandran, S., Chin, L., (2009). Dynamic model for International Tourism Demand for Malaysia: Panel Data Evidence. InternatlonalResearch Journal of Finance and Economics, 33,207-217.
Hoechle, D. (2007), "Robust Standard Errors for Panel Regressions with Cross-Sectional Dependence", r t e StataJoumo/, 7(31,281-312.
Kennedy, R (2008), A guide to econometrics, 6th edition, Wiley-Blackwell, Cambridge.
Leit,N.C.(2015).Portuguese tourismdemand:adynamicpaneldataanalysis./nfemc3t/ono/
Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 5(3).
Leit, N.C. (2010). Does trade help to explain tourism demand? The case of Portugal.
Theoretical and Applied Economics, 3(544), 63-74.
Nguyen Thi Thu Huong. (2017). Thuc trang va giai phap phat trien nganh Du Ijch Viet Nam hien nay Tgp chi Cdng thuang, sd 4&5,175-178.
Phakdisoth, L., Kim, D. (2007). The determinants of inbound tourism in Laos. Asean Economic Bulletin, 24-2, 225-237.
Serra, J., Correia, A., Rodrigues, RM.M. (2014). A comparative analysis of tourism destination demand in Portugal. Journal of Destination Marketing & Management, 2,221-227.
Song, H., Witt, S.F., (2000). Tourism Demand Modelling and Forecasting: Modern Econometric Approaches. Advances in Tourism Research Series. Pergamon, Oxford.
Surugiu, C, Leitao, N. C, & Surugiu, M. R. (2011). A panel data modelling of international tourism demand: Evidences for Romania. Economic research-Ekonomska /straz/Vcm/a, 24(1), 134-145.
Wooldridge, J. M. (2002). Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
Hoang Hong Hiep S Pham Thai Ha
Z h a n g , Y. (2015). International arrivals t o Australia: D e t e r m i n a n t s a n d t h e role o f air t r a n s p o r t policy. Journal of Air Management, 4 4 - 4 5 , 2 1 -24.
Phu l u c l : T^ t r o n g khach qudc t e d e n Viet N a m p h a n t h e o quoc tjch N U 6 c / N a m
Bi C a m - p u - c h i a Ca-na-da C H N D T r u n q H o a B a i Loan O a n M a c h DUc Ha Lan Han Q u d c H o a K y In-dd-ne-xi-a l-ta-li-a Lao Lien b a n g Nqa Ma-lai-xi-a N a U y N h a t Ban N i u - d i - l a n Ox-tray-li-a Phap Phi-li-pin Tay Ban Nha Thai Lan T h u y B i e n T h u y ST VUOnq q u d c A n h X i n - q a - p o
2 0 1 0 0,4%
5,3%
2 , 1 % 18,9%
7,0%
0,5%
2,6%
0,9%
10,4%
9,0%
1,1%
0,5%
0,8%
1,7%
4,4%
0,4%
9,2%
0,5%) 5,8%
4,2%
1,4%) 0,6%
4,7%
0,6%
0,5%
2,9%
3,6%
2 0 1 1 0,4%
7,4%
1,9%
24,7%
6,3%
0,4%
2,0%
0,8%
9,3%
7,7%
1,0%) 0,5%
2 , 1 % 1,8%) 4 , 1 % 0,3%
8,4%) 0,5%
5,0%
3,7%
1,5%
0,6%
3,2%
0,5%
0,4%) 2,7%
3,0%
2 0 1 2 0,3%
5,3%
1,8%
22,8%
6,5%
0,4%
1,7%
0,7%
11,2%) 7 , 1 % 1,0%) 0,5%
2,4%
2,8%) 4,8%
0,3%) 9,2%
0,4%
4,6%) 3,5%
1,6%
0,5%
3,6%
0,6%
0,5%
2,7%
3 , 1 % 2 0 1 3
0,3%
4,9%
1,5%
27,2%
5,7%
0,4%) 1,4%
0,7%) 10,7%
6,2%
1,0%
0,5%
1,7%
4,2%
4,8%
0,3%
8,6%
0,4%
4,6%
3,0%
1,4%) 0,5%
3,8%) 0,4%
0,4%) 2,6%
2,8%
2 0 1 4 0,3%
5,5%
1,4%
26,3%) 5,2%
0,4%
1,9%
0,7%) 11,4%
6,0%) 0,9%
0,5%
1,8%
4,9%
4,5%) 0,3%
8,7%
0,4%
4,3%
2,9%
1,4%
0,5%
3,3%
0,4%
0,4%) 2,7%
2,7%
2 0 1 5 0,3%) 3 , 1 % 1,4%
24,0%) 5,9%
0,4%
2,0%) 0,7%
15,0%, 6,6%
0,8%
0,5%
1,5%
4,6%
4,7%) 0,3%
9,0%
0,4%) 4 , 1 % 2,9%
1,3%) 0,6%
2,9%
0,4%
0,4%) 2,9%
3,2%
2 0 1 6 0,3%
2,3%.
1,3%
28,6%) 5,4%
0,3%
1,9%) 0,7%
16,4%) 5,9%) 0,7%
0,5%
1,5%) 4 , 6 % 4,3%
0,2%
7,9%
0,5%
3,4%
2,6%
1,2%
0,6%
2,8%
0,4%) 0,3%) 2,7%
2,7%) Nguon: Tong cue Thong ke
Phu luc 2 l/dic l u o n g N a m , M d h i n h P h u o n g p h a p I n c o m e POP
I n t e r n e t Expense
giai
cac nhan t o a n h d o a n 2 0 1 0 - 2 0 i e
(1) OLS 0.675***
(0.152) 0.846***
(0.0581) 0.0675 (0.0746) 0.498***
i U d n g d e n l u o n g khach d , b a n g phi/Ong p h a p OLS,
(2) REM 0.224 (0.260) 0.705***
(0.132) 0.349***
(0.0590) 0.0670
J lich qudc t e v a o V i e t REM FEM
(3) FEM 0.355 (0.595) 1.010 (1.311) 0.295***
(0.0787) -0.00644
Tap chi Khoa hoc xa hpi mien Trung, So 04 (60) - 2019
(0.112) (0.163) (0.205) Exchange 0.0819*** -0.0169 -0.379*
(0.0269) (0.0706) (0.193) Open 132075.6*** 86965.7*** 86404.7**
(15728.6) (16022.0) (17131.8) Distance -1.395*** -1.351***
(0.101) (0.299) ASEAN -1.090*** -0.689
(0.237) (0.577)
Hangsd -6.828*** -0.0637 -14.99 (1.950) (3.702) (20.33) N 140 140 140
_ff 0.745 0.488 Ghi chu: Sai sd chuan (Standard errors) mo ta trong ngoac don. * p^^^^^ < 0.1, **
0.05, ***p , <0.01.
•^ value
