Quan sat | Observation Asla-h'adnc Kconomlc Revie*
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d lidu mdi nhdi eua Tdng eye Thdng kd edng bd vdo cudi thdng 9 cho thdy tdc dO tdng trudng GDP cua Vidt Nam trong chin thdng ddu ndm 2012 Id 4,73%, thdp hon so vdi chi tidu 5,5%md Chinh phu ddt ra trudc dd eho ed ndm 2012, ddng thdi cflng thdp hon muc 5,77% ciia ndm 2011 va Id mgt trong nhung muc tdng trudng GDP thdp nhdt ciia Vidt Nam trong vdng ndm ndm trd lai ddy. Trong khi sdn lugng khu vgc thuong mgi dich vg tdng kem, dat 5,97%, thdp so vdi cung ky 2011, didu ddng luu y Id tdng trudng sdn lugng cdng nghidp ehi dgt 4,36%, thdp hon mue tdng cua GDP vd gidm gdn 1/2 so vdi mirc tdng 7,8% cting thdi didm ndm trudc.
Nhimg so lieu khong lac quan Trong nhidu ndm, ddy la Idn ddu tidn ma muc tdng trudng cdng nghidp ciia nen kinh td nudc ta lgi thdp hon tdng tardng GDP. Sdn lugng ndng nghidp cOng chi tdng 2,48%, so vdi muc ky lyc 4,1% cung ky ndm 2011, nguydn nhdn gidm dugc cho Id do dnh hudng ciia Ifl lut vd djeh bdnh ddng vdt. Tdng muc bdn Id hdng hda vd djeh vy tdng 17,3% nhung gidm gdn 1/3 so vdi muc tdng eung ky ndm 2011 Id 22,8%. Khu vge kinh td ddi ngogi Id khu vgc duy nh^t cdn cd nhirng sdc hdng.
Trong chin thdng ndm 2012, kim nggch xudt khdu dat 83,8 ti USD,
tdng 18,9% so vdi cdng ky ndm trudc, trong dd, xudt khdu tu khu vuc ngi dja dgt 31,3 li USD, gidm 0,6%, xudi khdu tu khu vge ed vdn ddu tu nudc ngodi (kd cd ddu thd) dgt 52,5 U USD, tdng 34,6%. Kim nggch nhdp khdu chin thdng dgt 83,7 U USD, tdng 6,6% so vdi cung ky nam 2011, trong dd nh^p khdu cho khu vgc ndi dja (chfl ydu Id t$p dodn kinh td nhd nudc) dgt 39,8 ti USD, gidm mgnh ddn 8,2%; nhdp khdu cho khu vuc cd vd'n ddu tu nudc ngodi dgt 43,9 li USD, tdng 24,8%. Chi'n thdng ddu ndm 2012, Viet Nam ldn ddu tidn sau nhidu ndm xudt sidu 30 tridu USD. Sd dg dn ddu tu nudc ngodi dugc cdp giSy chung nh$n Iinh ddn 20-9-2012 nhidu hon 100 dg dn so vdi cung ky 2011 tuy nhidn sd vdn ddng ky lgi thSphan2,l ti USD.
Theo bdo cdo cua Ngdn hdng Nhd nude, ddn cud'i thdng 8-2012, tdng phuong lidn thanh todn (M2) ude tdng 10,37% so vdi cudi ndm 2011. Tdng sd du lidn gui ciia khdch hdng tgi cdc td chdc tfn
d dyng udc ldng 11,23%. Trong khi dd, du ng lin dyng ddi vdi ndn kinh id trong chin thdng chl tdng 2,35% so vdi cudi ndm 2011. Ridng trong thdng 9, tfn dgng tang gdn 1%. Trong todn hd thdng ngdn hdng, kd tir giiia ndm 2012, Idi sudt huy ddng dd gidm nhanh, vd kdo theo nd • ch^m hon - Id Idi sudt cho vay, vdi tdng muc gidm lir 5 • 8%/nam. Cdn cdn thanh todn
^ q u d c Id chin thdng udc Uidng
" d u d mue khodng 8 li USD, tJ gid ddng Vidt Nam dugc giu 6 muc dudi 21.000 VND cho i USD.
Trdn linh vge gid cd, Uieo bdo cdo ctia Tdng cge Thdng kd, chi sd gid tidu dung (CPI) cua Vidt Nam trong Uidng 9 dd tdng ddn 2,2% so vdi thdng trudc dd, cao nhdt kd tu Uidng 6-2011. Nhdn xdt vdi bdo chi vd chi sd CPI ttong thdng 9-2012, dng Vfl Dinh Anh, Phd Vidn trudng Vidn Nghidn ciJIu Khoa hpc Thj Uudng gid cd, Bd Tdi chfnh eho bidt: "Ndu CPI cd nudc ldng Uidm 2% nua Uii rdt ddng lo vi chua ndm ndo cao nhu thd cd".
Cdn Iheo Malt L Hildebrandl, chuydn gia phdn tieh kinh td cua JP Morgan Chase, tuy mue tdng chi sd gid lidu dflng (CPI) Uidng 9-2012 ciia Vidt Nam Id cao han du kidn (trong tdm Uidng trude dd, CPI chi ldng binh qudn mdi Uidng 0,2%) nhung Igm phdt cua Vidt Nam se khdng tdng mgnh Uong thdi gian edn lgi cua ndm 2012. Bdo cdo cfla JP Morgan Chase cOng cW rd rdng, nguydn nhdn khidn CPI ttiang 9 tdng mgnh ndm d bdn nhdm hang hda vd djeh vg, bao gdm y td, gido dye, giao thdng vd luong thgc - thgc phdm. Tuy nhidn, trong bdi ednh suy thodi kinh td todn c4u,
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KINH Ti C H A U A - THAI ^ N H DUONG 5^381 (11/2012)bdo cdo cua JP Morgan Chase khdng cho Id CPI cOa Vidl Nam sd tdng vgt vdo cudi ndm nay nhu thudng xdy ra trong mdy ndm gdn ddy md dg dodn rdng Igm phdt sd cd thd hudng tdi ngudng 9% trong thdi gian cdn lai cua ndm. Muc igm phdt dudi 10%, mdc dfl gid xdng ddu vd gid didn dugc didu chfnh tdng mgnh trong ndm 2012 cung Id du bdo cOa cdc chuydn gia kinh id trong nudc. Trao ddi vdi bdo
Wall Street Journal, dng Le Thdm Duong thudc Dgi hge Ngdn hdng TP. Ho Chi Minh nhdn dinh, ndm hge mdi bdt ddu vdo thdng 9 vd gid xdng tdng dd ddy gid cd d cde nhdm gido dye vd giao thdng tdng. Tuy nhidn, dng eho rdng mdc tdng CPI ndm nay se dugc duy tri d mdt con sd, khodng 8 - 9%.
Bdt ddu tu hd thdng ngdn hang Lam phat trong ndm 2012 dfl Id 9% hay 10% chdng eo gi ddng lo ngai, nhung lam phdt trong Unh hinh kinh te suy thodi mdi Id chuydn ddng quan tdm. Lam phdt suy thodi se kiiien eho cdc ciiinh sdch tidn te - tai chinh trd nen lugng nan. Suy Uiodi doi hdi mdt ciiinh sdch tidn Id md rdng dd kich Uiich kinh te, nhung dd'i vdi nhidu nhd phdn Uch kinh td, mot ctiinh sach Udn td md rdng Igi cd the Idm gia tdng con sdt Igm phdt.
Trong Unh hinh dd, cde nha Idnh dao kinh td vi md budc phdi chgn Iga mye tidu uu tidn giUa phgc hdi sdn xudt kinh doanh, gidm bdt ty Id thdt nghidp va mdt linh Ugng 6n dinh tti trd. Dd khOng phdi Id mdt quydt dinh qud khd khdn, didu khd khdn chinh la ddm ldm didu edn Idm vi Ipi ich thuc su cda ndn kinh td. Cde con sd thdng kd dd cho th^y nhimg ddu hidu cua suy thodi dang phfl mdt bdng may mfl ldn ndn kinh td chflng ta ndm nay khi tdng Uudng gidm sgt d hdu hdt ede khu vgc kinh td d^n ddn Unh Ugng doanh nghidp ddng cua, lao ddng mdt cdng dn vide ldm, gid nhd ddt ddng bdng, thj trudng
chdng khodn gidm didm, ng xdu ngdn hdng tdng mgnh vd didu ndy cd khd ndng se kdo ddi ddn tdn 2013, ndu chflng ta khdng chgn dugc gidi phdp dung Nhidu ngudi dd dd c$p ddn vdn dd sdng Ipc, logi bd nhiing con sdu Idm rdu ndi canh, dd cd dugc mgt Igc lugng doanh nghidp Idnh mgnh hon, mgt hd Ihdng ngdn hdng hi^u qud hon, ehuydn nghidp hon vd dugc lin nhidm hon. Nhung ai sd Id nhirng eon sdu duge gdp ra khdi ndi canh vd mgt sg sdng Ipc lidu cd nguy co dua ddn dd vO ddy chuydn ldm hao Idn nguydn khi kinh Id cfla qudc gia^ Mdt khdc, lidu ndn kinh id Vidl Nam cd thd tg hdi phgc khi ndn kinh td the' gidi cdn ehua nil chdn khdi vung Idy suy thodi?
Du thd ndo di nua, mdt vidn ednh phgc hdi phdi bdt ddu tu hd thdng ngdn hdng. Mpt kich bdn Igc quan cho thdy Ngdn hdng Nha nude se tidp tgc duy tri sg h6 tro cdn Uiid'l vd thanh khodn cho cdc ngdn hang thuong mai ddng thdi tidp tue thue hidn kd hoach tdi cdu tnic he thdng ngdn hdng qua eac hinh Uidc sdp nhdp, hgp nhdt phfl hgp, thay cho tinh Uang thdu tdm thu nghjch. Trudc tinh hinh thj trudng bdt dgng sdn ddng bdng keo dai, cdc ngdn hdng thuong mgi sd nhdn thdy rdng igi ich thgc sg cfla hg khdng ndm d ch6 chuyen cac khodn ng vay sang qud hgn, didu ndy chi dua cde doanh nghidp hoat dgng chinh ddng Uong ngdnh ndy ddn bid vgc phd sdn, md fcdn thidt phdi giOp hg tdn tgi bdng cdch CO cdu lai cde khodn vay, gia hgn ng va khdng ehuydn ng qud hgn.
Bidn phdp ndy cQng edn dugc dp dgng cho nhiing doanh nghidp 1=""
dn ddng hodng trong ede linh vgc khdc dang gdP khd khdn nhdt Uidi.
Trong thdi ky kinh td khd khdn, chinh sg hgp tde quy gid ndy se giflp ngdn hdng va doanh nghidp cflng nhau vugt qua khflng hodng.
Cdn dd'i vdi cdc tdp dodn nhd nude, song song vdi vide cdu tnic lgi ng, hg se dupe Chinh phfl ydu
cdu nhanh chdng thu hep hogt dgng, tdp tmng cdc ngudn Igc dang cd vdo chuc ndng hogt dgng chu ydu, thgc hidn hidu qud kd hogch gidm vdn, gidm ng bdng cdeh bdn bdi Idi sdn vd ddy mgnh tidn Irinh cd phdn hda. C6 Ihd chung ta se chimg kidn mgt djnh chd qudc gia mua bdn tdi sdn khdng vi lgi nhu$n dugc xdy dung dga trdn su hd trg phdi hgp cda Bg Tai chinh vd Ngdn hdng Nhd nudc, hogt dgng vdi mgt phuang thuc tdt hon vd cdng bdng hon, ft su dyng ngudn Udn cfla ngdn sdch qude gia md vdn cd thd tgo ngudn thanh khodn edn Ihidt eho hd thdng ngdn hdng. Khi bdng tan Iu cac ngdn hdng, cdc doanh nghidp cfla chflng ta c6 didu kidn dugc tidp vdn, Un dyng cd hidu qud sd gia tdng, sdn xudt kinh doanh ddn ddn phuc hdi.
Ndu nhiing dg bdo ndu trdn xdy ra sdm trong ndm 2012, chiing ta ed thd chung kidn mgt nam 2013 tdt hon. Nhung cdn thay rang dd ed thd m£ing ddn nhiing thdnh tuu kinh td mong mudn, cdc gidi phdp chpn Iga nhdt thidt phai phfl hgp vdi nguydn tdc chung. LuPn ludn cd tidu chi rP rdng vd tinh ehdt phO hcrp cfla mpi gidi phdp kinh te, du Id vi md hay vi md. Tidu chi dd la tinh ehdt hidu qud vd tidt kiem ciia viec sung dung cdc nguon lgc cda ddt nudc. Cdc ngudn tdi nguydn qude gia (con ngudi, ddng vdn, tdi nguydn thien nhidn, ky ndng, cdng nghd,...) can phdi dugc phdn phdi hgp Iy cho nhCmg khu vuc kinh td, nhung ngdnh nghd, nhung con ngudi bidt su dyng hidu qud, tidt kidm vd mang lai kdt qua tdt hon hdt cho hg va cho ndn kinh te qudc ddn. Didu dd sd Idng cudng ndng luc cgnh ttanh qudc gia, giup cho ddt nudc nhanh chdng vugt qua cdc thdi ky khd khdn vd Id nen tdng eho mdt tuong lai kinh td cudng thjnh.
Theo Doanh nhdn Sdi Gdn Cud'i tudn
S6 381 {11/2012) KINH T^ C H A U A - THAl BINH DUONG
