NGUYEN TAC Ll/A CHON VA TRIEN KHAI
GOI K I C H C A U THLT BA
TS. Nguy§n Minh Phong Vien Nghien cUu Phdt trien KT-XH Hd Noi
"Lieu phdp kich cdu' ve bdn chdt Id vice chd dgng sd dung "ban tay Nhd nUdc" tdc dgng tich ci/c tdi tong cung vd tdng cdu .xa hgi mgt cdch thdng nhdt, cd to chUc vd cd chd dich, theo hUdng khuyen khich ddu tit vd md rgng quy mo tieu dung, kich hogt vd tdng dgng liic phdt trien kinh te trong bdi cdnh dgc thd cd su" suy gidm long tin vd cdc dgng lite phdt trien kinh td gdn udi cdc kho khdn ve nguon vdn vd thi trUdng tieu thu cua doanh nghiep, nhdt Id khu vitc kinh te tit nhdn... Cho den nay, cdc
"goi kk'h cdu' neu tren cua Viet Nam vd cd cdc nitdc sdp den hdi ket. Cdc chinh phu, ngdn hdng vd cdc doanh nghiep,
nhd ddu tit, cdng nhit ngitdi tieu dung deu cung chung cdu hdi ldn, lieu cd hay khong sit tiep tuc cua "goi kich cdu' tiep theo, neu cd thi vdi quy mo ra sao, dieu kien hd trd the ndo...?
Dac trUng ciia nhutng cdng cu dUdc diing chu ye'u t r d n g "lieu phdp kich cdu" d cac nen k i n h te thi t r u d n g t h u d n g la:
- Ap d u n g chinh sach ndi ldng d cac miic do k h a c n h a u ca c h i n h sach tai chinh, lan tien te va tin dung, nhU mien, giam, h o a n t h u e , t a n g lUdng, t a n g phat h a n h tien va t r a i p h i e u nd Chinh phu, gia t a n g quy md va p h a m VI cac hoat ddng chi tieu cdng va dau tu Nha nUdc. k h o a n h nd, gian nd, ndi ldng cac die\i kien tin d u n g , giam lai s u a t va t a n g quy md du nd tin d u n g ngiin h a n g cho cac hoat ddng k i n h doanh va tieu dimg, ...
- Gia t a n g miic do tii do boa trong k i n h d o a n h , giam bdt va t h u hep linh viic ddc q u y e n N h a nUdc, md rdng ty le sd hiiu cua cac n h a d a u tU nUdc ngoai va t u n h a n t r o n g cac doanh nghiep cd p h a n cd vd'n N h a nudc:
k h u y e n k h i c h cac b o a t ddng m u a lai, sap n h a p va t a i cau triic cd ca'u kinh te VI md va vi md...
- G i a m bdt rad c a n t h u tuc h a n h chinh cac loai cho b o a t ddng kinh d o a n h va tieu dimg; k h u y e n khich giam gia, ddng thdi cd t h e cd sii gia t a n g cac h i n h thifc bao ho phi thue q u a n di ddi vdi k i e m soat a n toan vi md ddi vdi t h i trUdng ndi dia...
Vu k h i chu liic trong "lieu phdp kich cdu" t h u d n g la cac "gdi kich cdu", tifc quy tai chinh cua Chinh p h u triic tie'p chi cho cac h o a t ddng kich cau dau tU va tieu dimg, chd'ng suy giam, dam bao dn dinh k i n h te vi md va an sinh xa hdi theo ke hoach dUdc cac ca'p cd tham quyen d i n h doat. Trong bdi canh khung hoang tai chinh va suy giam kinh te toan cau n a m 2009, sii xua't hien cac
"gdi kich cdu" nky phd bie'n ca d cac qudc gia, dii p h a t trien hay dang phat trien, lan d cac td chifc k h u vxfc va qud'c te n h u I M F , EU, ASEAN, vdi quy md ngay cang -tang, tif h a n g n g a n ty USD n h u d My, h a n g t r a m ty USD nhU d N h a t , T r u n g Qud'c, Nga va cac nUdc t h a n h vien E U . . .
O Viet N a m , "gdi kich cdu thii nhdt" tri gia 1 ty U S D da dUdc Chinh p h u q u y e t doan t h d n g qua va sdm
dUdc giai n g a n n h a n h chdng de hd trd 4% lai sua't vay n g a n h a n g thUdng mai cho cac k h o a n vay n g a n b a n dudi 1 n a m cua cac d o a n h nghiep viia va nhd, cd vd'n Dieu le dudi 10 ty ddng, sii d u n g k h d n g q u a 300 cdng n h a n , k h d n g nd dong t h u e va nd tin dung qua b a n . . . Tie'p dd, "got kich cdu thd hai" ciing da dUdc cdng bd vdi quy md ldn hdn (tdng cdng 2 gdi tri gia 8 ty USD), cho vay dai h a n hdn (tdi 2 n a m ) , dieu kien ndi long hdn (doanh nghiep va ca hdp tac xa cd vd'n dUdi 20 ty ddng, sii d u n g dudi 500 lao ddng, cd t h e nd t h u e va tin d u n g qua ban, n h u n g cd dii a n phii hdp t h i v a n dUdc xet cho vay) va Hnh viic cho vay cung md rdng hdn, bao gdm ca cho vay p h a t t r i e n ndng nghiep, ndng thdn va cho vay tieu d u n g ca n h a n . . . Tinh de'n d a u t h a n g 9/2009, Viet N a m da giai n g a n cac k h o a n cho vay t r o n g khudn khd cac "gdi kich cau" nay k h o a n g 500 n g a n ty ddng.
1. K h o n g t h e phii n h a n 4 t a c d o n g t i c h c i i c c i i a "goi k i c h c a u "
Thii nhdt, "gdi kich cau" cd hieu iing t a m ly tich ciic, nhU chiec phao cifu sinh l a m gia t a n g tiic thdi ldng tin cua cac d o a n h nghiep, cac n g a n h a n g va n h a d a u tU t r o n g nUdc va qud'c te vao t r a c h n h i e m va quyen n a n g cua N h a nUdc t r o n g giai cifu cac doanh nghiep d a n g gap khd k h a n , ciing n h u vao t r i e n vong t h i trUdng va mdi t r u d n g d a u t u t r o n g nudc,...
Thit hai, "gdi kich cau" triic tiep hd trd cac d d a n h n g h i e p tie'p can dUdc t h u a n ldi cac n g u d n vd'n n g a n h a n g vdi chi p h i vd'n re hdn, tii dd giiip giam bdt cac chi p h i k i n h ddanh, gdp p h a n giam gia, t a n g c a n h t r a n h va t a n g tieu t h u h a n g hoa va dich vu t r e n t h i trUdng, cd t h e m cd hdi giii viing va md rdng s a n xuat, tii dd gdp
p h a n giam bdt ap liic t h a t nghiep va an sinh xa hoi.
Thd ba, "gdi kich cau" giiip cac ngan h a n g cai t h i e n boat ddng h u y ddng va cho vay tin d u n g cua minh theo hudng.- vita k h d n g phai ha t h a p lai sua't h u y ddng (de gay giam va bien ddng m a n h ngudn tien gifi va huy ddng), viia t a n g du nd chd vay nhd khdng budc p h a i n a n g lai s u a t cho vay (de lam t h u hep cau tin d u n g tren thi trUdng), ddng thdi t a n g ldi n h u a n k i n h d o a n h va t a n g sii h a p dan cua cac chifng k h o a n do n g a n h a n g p h a t h a n h . Sii dn dinh va h o a t ddng tich ciic cua he thd'ng n g a n h a n g la dieu kien can thie't h a n g d a u cho sii dn dinh va gia t a n g cac boat ddng dau tu xa hdi trong nUdc trong bdi canh sut giam ddng dau tU tif n h a n va suy giam kinh te toan cau nhUng t h a n g dau n a m 2009.
Thd tit, "gdi kich cau" cdn triic tie'p gdp p h a n gia t a n g cac b o a t ddng dau t u p h a t trien cd sd ha t a n g k m h te va xa hoi, tao x u n g liic m a n h cho p h a t trien thi trUdng chiing k h o a n va thi trudng b a t ddng s a n t r o n g nUdc, duy tri ddng lUc t a n g trUdng k m h te, glut vutng dn dinh xa hoi. Nhiing boat ddng xiic tie'n dau tU va t h u d n g mai qud'c gia dUdc tai trd tif "goi kich cdu"
neu thiic hien cd hieu qua cung se cd tac ddng tich ciic de'n t a n g ddng vd'n chay vao va md rdng thi t r u d n g d a u ra cho doanh nghiep va n e n k i n h te, tii do triic tie'p gdp p h a n vao p h a t t n e n kinh te - xa hdi da't nudc t r o n g ca hien tai, ciing n h u tUdng lai.
2. Va 4 h e l u y "trai c h i e u " ciia
"goi k i c h c a u "
Ben c a n h nhiing tac ddng tich ciic t r e n , sii^ l a m d u n g va sif d u n g k h d n g hieu qua cac "gdi kich cau" cd t h e gay r a mot so' di h a i sau:
Mgt Id, cd t h e lam tha't t h o a t , l a n g phi cac ngudn vd'n vay, gia t a n g g a n h n a n g nd n a n va cac hien tUdng "dau cd ndng" vdi nhUng he q u a d a t de di kem cho ca C h i n h phu, d o a n h nghiep, ngan h a n g va xa hdi ndi c h u n g khi cac du an vay dau tU difdc lap ra cd cha't lUdng t h a p , hdac t r i e n k h a i kem, giai ngan khdng diing muc dich vay;
Hai Id, gia t a n g cac hien tUdng t h a m n h u n g , t h a m chi cd t h e x u a t hien nhieu loai tdi p h a m mdi cd lien q u a n triic tiep va gmn tiep tdi cac "gdi kich cau" nay do chii dich tii d a u cua cac doanh nghiep, hoac sii b a t tay giiia cac n g a n h a n g vdi cac d o a n h nghiep trong viec lap cac dii an vay ao de chiem doat vd'n hd trd tif "gdi kich cdu"; do cac n g a n h a n g n h u n g n h i e u doanh nghiep de "an chia" p h a n vd'n hd trd trong khi t h a m dinh, cho vay vdn, lam tdn hai ldi ich hdp p h a p cua doanh nghiep;
Ba Id, lam tdn h a i den sifc c a n h t r a n h cua nen k i n h te do viec cho vay theo "gdi kich cdu" thien ve quy md va t h a n h tich, t h a m chi gdp p h a n niu keo, duy tri cd cau k m h te, ciing nhU cd can san p h a m va thi trUdng k i n h doanh lac hau, kem hieu qua; ddng thdi, lam gia t a n g cac meo md thi trifdng do sii can thiep triic tie'p cua b a n tay N h a nUdc hoac keo dai tinh t r a n g b a t b i n h d a n g thi trUdng giuta cac Idai h i n h ddanh nghiep, k h u viic k i n h te va cac dia phUdng neu khdng t u a n t h u td't cac nguyen tac m i n h bach va b i n h d a n g trong trien k h a i cac "gdi kich cau", nha't la giUa cac d o a n h nghiep dUdc va khdng dUdc h u d n g hd trd 4% lai sua't tii "gdi kich cau";
Bdn Id. ve t r u n g b a n , tad ap liic tai lam p h a t cao va gia t a n g tich t u cac mat can ddi t r e n thi trUdng tai c h i n h - tien te. Dac biet, k h o a n Uu dai 4% lai sua't cua gdi kich cau va ky vong l a m p h a t cao cdn tao sifc ep t a n g ty gia USD va lam t a n g ma't c a n ddi cd cau
tin d u n g : cu t h e , l a m t a n g n h u cau vay tien V N D va d i m g cac k h o a n vay n a y de m u a U S D cho cac h d a t ddng k i n h d o a n h cua d d a n h nghiep, t h a y vi d d a n h n g h i e p vay triic tie'p USD cua n g a n h a n g . H a n h ddng n a y cd ldi chd d d a n h n g h i e p tie'p c a n dUdc ngudn vd'n hd trd tii gdi kich cau do viia dUdc h u d n g Uu dai 4% lai sua't, vifa t r a n h dUdc riii rd ty gia t r d n g tUdng lai (khdng p h a i m u a U S D vdi ty gia cao hdn t r o n g tUdng lai de t r a nd chd cac k h o a n vay U S D cd t h e m u a dUdc vdi ty gia tha'p t r o n g hien tai, t h a m chi k h i cd l a m p h a t cao t h i d o a n h nghiep cdn cd ldi hdn k h i t r a nd b a n g VND);
n h i i n g h a n h ddng n a y gay r a hai tac ddng t i e u ciic: l a m chd cac ddanh nghiep k h a c cd n h u cau vay VND thiic sii de k i n h d d a n h lai khd tie'p can hdn ngudn vd'n vay VND cua n g a n hang, ddng thdi l a m gia t a n g cang t h a n g ve n h u cau m u a U S D t r e n t h i trUdng tien te t r o n g nifdc, gay siic ep t a n g ty gia U S D , t r o n g k h i U S D cho vay cua n g a n h a n g t h i hi e (cUng cd nghia la du nd cho vay U S D cua n g a n h a n g bi giam t h i e u , n g a n h a n g cd n h i e u tien gifi U S D m a k h d n g chd vay dUdc).
3. Nhufng n g u y e n t a c Ivta c h o n va t r i e n k h a i "goi k i c h cau" t i e p t h e o
Cho den nay, cac "gdi kich cau" neu t r e n cua Viet N a m va ca cac nUdc sap de'n hdi ke't. C h i n h p h u , n g a n h a n g va cac d o a n h n g h i e p , n h a d a u tU, ciing n h u ngUdi t i e u d i m g deu cimg chung cau hdi ldn, lieu cd h a y khdng "gdi kich cau" tiep t h e o , ne'u cd thi vdi quy md r a sao, dieu k i e n hd trd t h e nad...?
De cd t h e t r a ldi chinh xac cau hoi tren, can cd nhiing khad sat va sd ket budc d a u thiic te de cd nhiing thdng tin du tin cay ve n h u cau vd'n thiic sii va tac ddng thiic te cua cac gdi kich cdu, k h a n a n g t r a nd vay cua cac khoan vay
trong khudn khd cac "gdi kich cau" da va dang trien khai, ddng thdi can cd sii d a n h gia k h a sat mifc do, trien vong hdi phuc nen kinh te trong nUdc va the gidi, k h a n a n g t u difng viing cua cac doanh nghiep ne'u Chinh p h u "budng tay", cha'm dift dot ngdt "gdi kich cau"... Ndi each khac, viec cd hay khdng "gdi kich cau" tie'p theo can bao dam 2 nguyen tac chu ye'u sau:
Mgt mat, ddm bdo nguyen tdc ddng hdnh, dong cam cgng khd, chia se giiia cdc ben cd lien quan. N h a nUdc va ngan h a n g can ddng h a n h cimg doanh nghiep trong mdi cdng sinh ngay cang sau sac. Dac biet, can " t r a n h sd'c" cho cac boat ddng kinh te - xa hdi trong khi t h u hep dan cac gdi kich cau theo Id trinh thich hdp. Trdng bdi canh sii hdi phuc nen kinh te va trien vong thi trUdng tieu t h u trong nUdc va the gidi chUa t h a t vUng chac, thi viec cat dot ngdt cac hd trd tich ciic cua lieu phap ban tay N h a nifdc la ddng nghia vdi viec tudc ddat cay gay chd'ng cua cac doanh nghiep dang vUdt ddc vdi sifc liic ngay cang can kiet. Sii hd trd kieu day ddc nifa chifng budng tay la nguy hiem chd nhieu phia: lam m a t uy tin Chinh phu, lam t a n g nguy cd ma't kha n a n g t h a n h tdan cua cac doanh nghiep - con nd va keo theo lam t a n g nguy cd vd nd va pha san day chuyen cua cac ngan h a n g - chu nd, vdi ta't ca nhiing he qua dat dd khd ludng... Chinh vdi tinh t h a n nay, trdng Hdi nghi G20 dien ra d i u t h a n g 9/2009, dai dien Chinh phu T r u n g Qud'c va Lien b a n g Nga deu ddng t h a n h tuyen bd se tie'p tuc cac hd trd can thie't cua N h a nUdc cho doanh nghiep n h a m duy tri t a n g trudng kinh te dat nUdc trong thdi gian tdi...
Mat khdc, thitc hien ddng bg cdc hogt dgng hd trd cua lieu phdp "bdn tay Nhd nitdc": Can coi trdng sii ddng bd giiia cac nhdm giai phap tien te vdi nhdm giai phap tai chinh va nhdm giai phap hanh chinh, cung nhU sii ddng bd ngay trong
tiing nhdm giai p h a p nay; can cd sU ddng bo giiia phat huy tac ddng tich ciic va chu ddng giam thieu tac ddng mat trai cua cac hoat ddng kich cau, trdng dd cd sii ddng bd giuta cho vay va thu hdi nd vay, bad dam an toan he thd'ng tai chinh - ngan hang; dac biet, can gia tang dan tinh thi trUdng va binh dang, t r a n h keo dai qua lau cac boat ddng mang tinh bao cap - xin cho, thieu minh bach va lam tang sii bat binh dang thi trUdng va xa hdi giuta cac ddi tUdng hd trd va quan ly trong khi trien khai "lieu phap ban tay Nha nUdc".
Vdi t i n h t h a n dd, trUdc mat, Viet Nam can tie'p tuc sif d u n g "gdi kich cau" ndi rieng va "lieu p h a p b a n tay n h a nUdc" ndi c h u n g mdt each tich ciic va chu ddng, vdi quy md cd the nhd dan va dieu kien t h a t chat hdn. dac biet can chii y giam t h i e u cac tac ddng trai chieu cua "gdi kich cau", trong dd can chii y: Khdng "kich cau" t u y tien theo t h a n h tich hdac theo ldi ich n g a n ban, m a n g t i n h cd hdi cad; thiic hien td't hdn viec liia chon hdp ly va cdng khai cac tieu thifc, ciing nhif t h u a n ldi hoa cac t h u tuc giai n g a n cho cac dii an thudc d a n h muc dUdc kich cau; t a p t r u n g dau tU cho cac dii an sap hoan t h a n h , dUa n h a n h vao k h a i thac sif dung, cac du an cd d u n g lUdng va trien vong thi t r u d n g tieu t h u td't, cac dii an gdp p h a n triic tie'p duy tri va md rdng n a n g liic s a n xua't va k m h doanh can thiet cua d o a n h nghiep va nen kinh te, cac dii an thiic day chuyen dich va cai t h i e n cd ca'u, sifc canh t r a n h k i n h te thed hifdng p h a t trien ben vutng; Uu tien vd'n chd cac dii an cd t i n h thiic day p h a t trien hen n g a n h cad, tad thi trUdng tieu t h u tiem n a n g , n h a t la cac dii an cd y nghia tdng hdp ca k i n h te - xa hdi va mdi t r u d n g . . . Can dac biet k h u y e n khich cac dii an p h a t t r i e n n h a d xa hdi, dii an p h a t t r i e n cd sd h a t a n g kinh te va xa hoi ndng thdn, dii an
p h a t trien cdng n g h i e p che bien ndng san va cac n g a n h cdng nghiep p h u trd... Ben c a n h dd. can thiic day m a n h va hieu qua cac boat ddng xiic tien dau t u va thifdng mai b a n g ngudn vd'n trong "gdi kich can" n h a m khdi t h d n g thi trUdng vd'n va thi trifdng tieu t h u ' nu'dc ngdai mdi cho cac doanh nghiep trong nu'dc; thiii: hien cac cai each h a n h chinh cai t h i e n can b a n mdi trifdng d a u tif theo hifdng tii dd hda, t h u a n ldi hoa. dd bd nhiing b a n che lac h a u ve b a n dien, thdi b a n giad dat;
k h u y e n khich xa hdi hda d a u tU p h a t trien cac cd sd ha t a n g k i n h te - xa hdi va dich vu cdng ich; tiep tuc giam t h u e , t a n g cac boat ddng bao l a n h tin dung cho cac doanh nghiep viia va nho til' cac quy hd trd d o a n h nghiep cd mdt p h a n vdn n h a nifdc; p h a t trien, hien dai hoa, da d a n g hoa va tii do hoa cao hdn thi trifdng vd'n; day m a n h qua t r i n h cd p h a n hoa va ndi rdng hdn cac ty le sd hUu t u n h a n va nifdc ngoai trong cac d o a n h n g h i e p n h a nUdc va cung cap cac h a n g hoa td't cho thi trudng chiing k h o a n . Can nha'n m a n h rang, ve t r u n g b a n va dai h a n can t a n g ciidng sif d u n g cac cdng cu chiing khoan hoa nd t h d n g qua Tdng cdng ty dau t u va k m h d o a n h vd'n N h a nUdc ciing n h u cac cdng ty m u a b a n nd N h a nu'dc khac de thiic hien cac trd giiip til
"gdi kich cau" cua C h i n h phu. Ndi each khac. can giam dan viec hd trd triic tiep lai sua't cho cac doanh nghiep n h u hien nay. de chuyen s a n g md rdng viec C h i n h p h u t h d n g q u a Tdng cdng ty d a u t u va k i n h d o a n h vdn Nlia nUdc, c u n g n h u cac cdng ty kinh doanh nd k h a c tien h a n h m u a ban chiing k h o a n va dau t u vao cac cdng ty, h n h viic k m h d o a n h can hd trd thed nhUng dinh h u d n g liia chdn phii hop thiic tien p h a t t r i e n d o a n h nghiep va muc tieu kich cau cu t h e cho tiing giai doan. Cach thifc nay cho phep dUa su hd trd N h a nifdc p h u hdp
hdn cac n g u y e n t a c thi trUdng va t h d n g le qud'c te, ciing nhU gdp p h a n p h a t t r i e n t h i trUdng t a i chinh trong nUdc... Ngoai ra, can theo ddi chat che, n a n g cao cha't lUdng p h a n tich va du bao t i n h h i n h t r o n g nUdc va qud'c te, dac biet la n h i i n g bien ddng ve t i n h h i n h k m h te, tai chinh the' gidi, chu ddng xay diing cac phUdng an ifng phd; linh h d a t va ddng bo hdn trdng dieu h a n h lai sua't, ty gia va cac bien dd giad dich cua chiing, chu ddng kiem s e a t mifc t a n g trUdng tin dung va tdng phUdng tien t h a n h tdan; t a n g cUdng cdng tac t h a n h t r a , kiem tra, kiem t o a n de kip thdi n g a n ngiia cac sai p h a m , day m a n h cdng tac kiem Sdat gia ca, chd'ng gian lan thUdng mai, d a u cd, budn lau, n a n g gia, kiem ldi ba't c h i n h . T r d n g va'n de kiem seat t h i trUdng, chii y de'n lieu lUdng, thdi lifdng, c h i n h sach bd trd khi xay diing va thUc thi n h i i n g giai p h a p da, dang va se t r i e n k h a i . . .
Tdm lgi, ve tdng t h e va cd ban,
"lieu phdp kich cdu" cd n h i e u tac ddng tich ciic hdn tieu ciic, dac biet cac ''gdi kich cdu" cd y n g h i a lich sii nha't dinh t r o n g q u a t r i n h p h a t t r i e n va quan ly k i n h te - xa hoi d a t nUdc, n h a t la t r o n g cac t i n h h u d n g k h a n cap va dac biet. Thiic h i e n td't "gdi kich cau" ndi rieng, "lieu p h a p kich cau" ndi chung la triic tiep gdp p h a n dUa n e n kinh te nUdc ta t h d a t khdi t i n h t r a n g khd k h a n t r o n g nifa cud'i n a m 2009, tie'p tuc p h a t t r i e n m a n h hdn trdng nam 2010... T u y n h i e n , viec trien khai chiing t r e n thiic t e ddi hdi sii can t r o n g va t i n h tao, t r a n h lam dung, keo dai, ciing nhU can t a n g cUdng cdng tac t h d n g tin, t h a n h kiem t r a va ket hdp cac giai p h a p ddng bd khac n h a m p h a t h u y cac tac ddng tich cilc, t r u n g hda va p h d n g ngiia cac tac ddng tieu ciic, gdp p h a n dn dinh va phat t r i e n k i n h te vT md va vi md theo h u d n g ben viing •
