SQHIEN C d a - TRAO DOI
Nhifng tac dong den xuat khau nong san cua Viet Nam
khi dong Nhan dan te giam gia
NQUYen THE BiNH'
C u n g vdfi nhifng c a n g t h a n g trong thifdng chid'n M y - Trung, vi$c Trung QuSc pha gia d o n g N h S n d&n t£ (CNY) da va dang a n h hifdng d£'n kinh tS'toan dn, t r o n g d o , t a c dQng trifc tiS'p d£'n xuSt kh^u n 6 n g s a n c u a V i $ t N a m , d$c bi$t la nhiing s a n ph^m n l i i i u l^i thg'v^ c o k i m n g a c h xuS't kh^u ldn nhif thuy san.
B a i vigt s e l a m r o nhifng t a c d $ n g nay, qua do difa ra m $ t s3'ham y giup cho c a c nha xuS^t k h i u nfing s a n Vi$t N a m n a m bat thoii cd, vif^t qua thach thilc.
DIEN BIEN TY CIA USD/CNY
Theo so lieu tif Tdng cue Thdng ke (Hlnh 1), sau cuoc khung hoing tai chinh th^ gidi nam 2008, Ngan hang Trung Udng Trung Qudc (PBGC) quydt dinh neo t^ giS cd dinh cOa ddng CNY vdi ddng USD 3 mlJc 6,84. Den thang 06/2010, PBOC da dieu chinh thi tnftJng ngo^i hdi bang viec them v&o bien d6 cho ty gia USD/CNY d mtfc 1%, rdi tang 16n 2% vio thang 03/2014, tao n6n m6t da tang li6n tuc sau do, dat mtfc cao nhat 6,02 vao nam 2014 (ttfdng dtfdng mtfc tang 13%). Ba tang ciia t^ gii USD/CNY kdt thuc vio cudi nam 2014 va dau nim 2015. Cudi nim 2015, ddng CNY d i mi't gii so vdi USD kha nghiem trpng, d mtfc 2% ndu liy mdc la ty gia USD/CNY. Nam 2016, gii ddng CNY dtfdc an dinh d mtfc 6,4937 ddi 1 USD v i den cudi nam d i ting ldn mtfc 1 USD ddi dtfdc 6,9615 CNY. Nim 2017, ty gii niy cd ban dn djnh d mtfc 6.5
HiNH 1; TY GIA OSD/CNY NAM 2008-2019
CNY ddi 1 USD. So vdi Ij gii 6,9615 CNY ddi 1 USD c i a cic ngiy giao dich cuo'i nam 2016, ty gii tham chieu giffa ddng CNY vdi USD c i nam 2017 tang 0,4028 (khoang 5,8%).
Thing 03/2018, "chien tranh thtfdng mai My - Trung" bung nd sau stf ki?n My dinh thud I6n 50 tJ USD hing h6a Trung Qudc, ddng CNY bit dau giim gia nhanh (Hinh 2). Trong diin bidn cang thing thtfdng mai leo thang khi My tuy6n bd se i p thue 10% vdi khoing 300 ty USD hang hda va sin pham nhip khau Trung Qudc ke ttf ngiy 01/09/2019, thi ngiy 05/08/2019, lin diu tien n-ong 11 nim, tJ gii USD/CNY vtfdt mffc kJ luc 7 CNY ddi lay 1 USD, sau khi PBOC ha gii npi te xudng thi'p nhit k^
ttf cudi nam 2018. Ngiy 30/08/2019, tJ gii USD/CNY tidp tuc ting manh len mtfc 1 USD ddi 7.1565 CNY. B i y cung chlnh l i thdi diem ma Bo Tai chinh My da chJnh thtfc goi Trung Quo'c li "qudc gia thao tung tien te", lan dau ti§n ke tff nim 1994.
PBOC giii thich, dflng thii niy chu ye'u phan anh stf lo ngai ctia thj trtfdng vd cic bi$n phap b i o hfl vi thue nhip khau mdi nham vio Trung Qudc. Vdi mtfc thue 25% len hing Trung Qudc, vi6c ddng CNY yeu di 10%, tien thu^
se giim ding kd, khien tic dpng thtfc sff cua thue nhip khiu se khdng c6n nhilu.
Ttf dd, hing xua't khau Trung Qudc ciS ldi the so vdi My, ddng Ihdi, cic hang
• TS.. Khoa Tai chlnh. Tri/dng Dai hgc Ngan hang TP. Ho Chi Minh
xuat kh^u Trung Qu6'c vttdt qua thdch thti"c tiJf thue nhap khau cua My.
ISHOJG TAC DONG D^N XUA'T KHAU NONG SAN VI^T NAM
Vi6l Nam la nin kinh te dang ph^t iri^n trong kbu vi^c ASEAN, nhtfng lai phu thu6c rat nhieu v^o xua't khau. Si li8u tu" T^ng cue Hdi quan cho thay, ttong 3 nam (2015-2018), kim ng^ch xuit khin cua Vi$t Nam da tang 50%.
Ket tbuc nam 2018, kim ngach xu^t khau cua Viet Nam dat 243,483 ty USD, tang 13% so vai nam 2017 (ttfcfng dtfdng vdi khodng 28,3 ty USD). 9 thang dau nam 2019, tdng gih Iri xuS'l kh^u dat 30.02 t^ USD, tang 2,7% cung kJ- nam 2018. Tuy nhi6n, gih tti XUETI khiu chc mat hang ndng sin chinh tfdc giam 7,2% xuo'ng gin 14 ly USD; xua't kb^u thu^ san vo'n la ngSnh th6' manh cfla Viet Nam, nhtfng tlnb hinh xuSt kh^u trong 9 thiing qua tfdc giam 2% xuong c6n 6,23 t^ USD.
Trung Qud'c \h mfit ttong 3 tbi tttfdng xuS'l khSu Idn cua h^ng hoh Vi6t Nam vdi kim ngach xua^t khau nam 2018 dai 41.3 ty USD, tang 16,6% so vdi nSm 2017. Trong do, nhdm hang n6ng - lim - thuy san chi^m t^ ttong ttdn 31,2%
trong tdng kim ngach xua't kh^u Vi?t - Trung v^ chi^m tt6n 20,9% trong tong kim ngach xui't khau nhom hang cua ca ntfdc, gom: (i) Nhdm n6ng san: Itfdng thtfc (gao, san kh6), rau cu qud (dac bi$t la cac loai hoa qud nhi$t ddi, nhtf: chudi, xoai, ch6m ch6m, thanb long...), che, hat dieu; (ii) Nhom thuy sdn: thuy sdn ttfdi sd^ng, thfiy sdn dong l^nh, m6t sd loai mang tinh dac sdn (nhtf: ran, ria, ba ba...). Vi$c Tnmg Qudc lidn tuc ha gid ddng CNY nham dd'i phd vdi My ttong cu6c chidn thtfdng mai se anh htfdng kha nhidu dd'n xud't kh£u cila Vi6l Nam, nhat la ndng san. Khi Trung Qud'c pha gid ddng CNY, xud'l khd'u hdng hda ndi chung vd ndng sdn ndi ridng cfla Vidt Nam vao Trung Qud'c se khd khan hdn, vl gid hdng d thi trtfdng Trung Qud'c re hdn so vdi hang xud^t khd'u iQ" Vidt Nam.
Ddng CNY Uen tuc bj phd gia vd md't gid nhieu hdn so vdi mtfc mat gia cfla ddng VND trtfdc ddng USD se tao ra chdnh Idch md't gid giu'a ddng CNY so vdi VND Id rd't ldn. Khi dd, gid hdng hda xud't khau tif Vidt Nam ndi chung, cdc mdt hang thuy sdn xud'l kh^u ndi ridng
Ngu6n. Bloomberg sang Trung Qudc se cao hdn, gdy khd kh5n cbo vide
xud't khau cfla Viet Nam.
Trdn thtfc td, nhieu doanh nghiep (DN) cung cho bid't da bi dnh htfdng nhieu khi ddng CNY md't gid.
Theo Bo Cdng Thtfdng (2019), hai mathang xuatkh^u chfl life sang Trung Qudc nam 2018 giam manh la g^o - giam gin 330 tridu USD; didn thoai - gidm gin 550 trieu USD, khien cbo xud^l khau Vidt Nam gidm gin 1 ty USD. Khi xua't khau mat bang dien thoai gidm da kdo td'c dd tang tttfdng chung cfla xud't khiu chdm lai. Cu the, mdt sd'mat hdng ndng thuy san cfla Viet Nam sang Trung Quo'c ttong nam 2018 nhtf sau: gao xud't khau dat 638,3 tridu USD, gidm 33,4% so vdi 2017, cd thi phdn tai thi tttfdng Trung Qud'c tren 50%, dd'i thfl canh tranb cbinh gdm Thdi Lan, Campuchia...;
cao su xuat khau dat 1,37 ty USD, giam 5%, dd'i thfl canh ttanh Thdi Lan, Indonesia...; rau qua xuat khau dat 2,78 l^ USD, tang 5,08%, dd'i thfl canh tranb gdm Thdi Lan, Philippines...; thfly sdn xuait khiu dat 995,9 trieu USD, gidm 8,1%. Dtf bao ttong nam 20i9, tang tttfdng xud't khiu c6 thd chi dat 8% va cung la lan diu tidn ttong thdp nien qua, ty le nay thap hdn mtfc tang trtfdng GDP danh nghia.
MQT SO HAM Y D6I VCfl XUXt K H X U NONG SAN CUA VIET NAM
NhOng tac ddng tijf vide ddng CNY ma^t gia de'n boat ddng xua't khau ndng sdn cfla Viet Nam de'n nay da khd rd rang. Mae dfl vay, ben canh nhiJng khd khan, xua't khau ndng sdn vin diJng trtfdc nhidu stf Itfa chgn mdi do thi trtfdng md rdng khi Vidt Nam tham gia ngdy mgt nhieu hdn vao cdc hidp dinb thtfdng mai ttf do qudc te' va khu vtfc. Dd tan dung nhffng cd hdi, vtfdt qua thdch thu'c nham tbuc day xua't khiu hang nong san chfl Itfc Viet Nam ra thj trtfdng tbd'gidi, can CO nhflng hanh ddng tff phia Nhd ntfdc vd sif nd ltfe cua cdng ddng doanh nghidp. Cu the nhtf sau:
vi phia Nhd nUdc
Ndi didn bid'n ttong chinh sach thtfdng niai va nhflng bid'n dpng trong ly gia tfl cudc chie'n ttanh thtfdng mai My - Trung, cdc ed quan quan ly nhd ntfdc cdn tbeo doi
NGHIEN ccra - TRAO DOI
Thuy san xuSt khau sang Trung Quoc ngay cSng d6i di^n ap l\xc c?nh tranh mgnh mS hon vk gia ca
va bam sdt tinh hinb chat cbe dd dtfa ra phdn lich va dtf bdo, di xud't cdc kich ban iftig phd khde nhau nham dhg phd vdi bid'n ddng kinh td' the gidi, ISng ctfdng cung d p thong tin mdt cac day dfl, kip thdi ddn cde ddi ttfdng tham gia ttong chuoi gid tri ndng sdn xud't khiu di chfl ddng hdn ttong kd hoach sdn xu^t, kinh doanb. Tang ctfdng ddu ttf xay dtfng va phdt trien hd thdng thdng tin ve thi tttfdng ndng sdn ttdn the gidi di phuc vu cho doanh nghidp Vidt Nam sdn xull va xudt khiu hdng ndng san phu hdp, ttdnh thiet hai va gidm nhflhg rfli ro khdng ddng cd cho ed doanb nghiep vd ngtfdi ndng ddn.
Bdn canh dd, bd sung vd dieu chinh cdc chinh sdch theo htfdng thu hflt dlu ttf cho ngdnh ndng nghidp, ndng cao chdt Itfdng sdn phim, ddp thig cac yeu cau ky thu^t.
Nha ntfdc cung can cd dinh btfdng va cd che' hd ttd cho cdc doanh nghidp ttong vide dau ttf ndng cao chd't Itfdng sdn phim, ddp tfng cdc ydu elu v l chit Itfdng, gid cd canh ttanh de tham gia vdo thi trtfdng khd tinb, nhtf: My, Nhdt Bdn, chdu Au mdt each dn dinh. Trong ddi han, dilu quan ttgng la Nha ntfdc can quy hoach cac vflng sdn xua't, nuoi ttdng thieh hdp vdi ldi thd tflng vung miln. M^t khde, dtfa ra cdc chinh sdch phfl hdp nbam khuyd'n khich doanh nghidp da dang hda, tiep can va md rdng thi trtfdng xud't khiu, tdn dung ldi
thd cfla cdc hiep dinh thtfdng mai ttf do ma Vidt Nam Id thanh vidn.
viphia doanh nghiip
Hidn nhidu doanh nghidp nh6 cua Vidt Nam xuait khiu sang Trung Qudc chfl yd'u la qua dtfdng tidtf ngach, thieu thdng tin, nen tbu ddng trtfdc nhflng thay ddi ttong quy dinh xull - nhdp khiu bidn mdu cfla ntfdc ndy. Chlnh vl vdy, nhidu doanh nghidp xud't khau thfly sin cfla Viet Nam, nbtf: cd tta, mtfc kh6, tdm hflm... da bi Id ndng do Trung Qudc sidt budn ban lieu ngach. Do dd, doanh nghidp cdn thay ddi hinb thflc xudt khiu thdng qua vide dly manh xue tie'n thtfdng mai, tang ctfdng xuit khiu sang Tmng Qude bang con dtfdng chinh ngach. Vi$c dly manh xuat khau qua dtfdng cbinh ngaeh ban chd nhflhg bat dn tfl xull khau theo dtfdng lidu ngach khdng chlnh thii'c. Hdn nfla, doanh nghidp Vidt Nam can chu ddng lien ket vdi doanh nghidp Trung Qudc di xdy dtfng ke hoach xudt - nhdp khiu vd k;J kd't cdc hdp ddng xull - nhdp khiu ddi han; phdt trien hd thdng phdn phdi tten tbi trtfdng Trung Qudc;
thdm nhdp kdnh phdn phdi bdn budn tbdng qua vide thid't ldp cdng ty lidn doanh vdi doanh nghidp Trung Qudc.
Dieu quan ttgng la, doanh nghidp Vidt Nam can thflc dly xull khiu sang cdc thi trtfdng khde de ttdnh phu thudc vao mgi thi trtfdng. De ldm dtfde didu nay, doanh ngbiep can ndng cao nhdn thtfc, ndng ltfe thtfc thi cdc quy dinh cua phdp ludt vd phong vd thtfdng mai, quy tac xull xff vd cdc tidu chuan ve vd sinh, an todn thtfc pham.
Ngodi ra, Viet Nam cung cin tim hidu ky thi trtfdng cin gi thay vi nudi ttdng ttdn lan khdng cd ke hoaeh, rdi ddn miia Id "fln iin mang Idn bien gidi", din ddn cac vu gidi cdu dtfa hau, dtfa Id, xoai, tao... da ttd tbdnh thdng I^.Q
_ TAT f .IFTI THAM K H A O
1. Bd Cdng Thtfdng (2019). Bdo cdo xudt - nhdp khdu Viet Nam 2018
2. Tdng cue Hdi quan (2018). Tri gid xudt, nhdp khdu phdn theo nudc vd vUng ldnh thd chU yiu sO bd cdc tkdng ndm 2018
3. Tdng cue Hdi quan (2019). Trj gid xudt. nhgp khdu phdn theo nudc vd vdng ldnh thd chi yitt sobd cdc thdng ndm 2019
4. Tdng cue Thdng kd (2018). Ttnh hinh kinh ti-xd hgi Vift Nam ndm 2018
5. Vien Nghidn effu Qudn Iy Kinh te Trung tfdng (2018). Bdo cdo kinh ti vi md quy IV vd cd
ndm 2018 ^ ^ ^ 6. Bloomberg (2019). USD to CNY Exchange Rate, access to https://www.bloomb
quole/USDCNY:CUR
