Tran Hoang Long. Nguyen Thi Oanh Nhirng ihach thirc ddi vol sire manh
©2020 Vien Nghien cu'u An Do va Tay Nam A Tgp chi Nghien ciru An Dp va Chau A So 1 (85), thang 1-2020 http7/viisas vass.gov.vn ISSN- 0866-7314
Nhiing thach thuc doi voi sue manh tong hop quoc gia cua An Do^
* Trdn Hodng Long, ** Nguyen Thi Oanh 'Vien Nghien cuu An Do vd Tdy Nam A.
"Vien Nghien cini AnD^vd Tdy Nam A, NCS Truong Dgi hoc Khoa hgc Xa hoi vd Nhdn van Hd Ngi Ngdy nhdn bdi: 9/9/2019. ngdy gui phdn bien 02/12/2019, ngdy duyet dang 30/12/2019
Tytcoc vao the ky XXI. su noi len cua An Do da thu hut quan ldm ciia cdc hoc gid tren ihe gidi J - ^ Cdc nhd doi ngoai o cdc quoc gia vdn dgt cdu hdi ve viec An Do se hdnh xir nhir the nao khi nudc ndy co du sice manh de quyet dinh dnh hudng den cdc vdn de the gidi, ddc biet Id khi khd nhieu quan diim dong y rdng An Do Id mot nuac Ion dang troi ddy vd An Do se sir dung "siic mgnh nhd nudc " (stale-power) khi lai ich vd su can du cita An Do ngdy cdng gia tang doi vol cdc vdn de todn cdu va khu vuc Tuy nhien. thuc te cho thdy, sir troi day cung nhu sire mgnh long hop quoc gia ciia An Do chiu tdc dong ciia nhieu yeu to, cd ben Irong lan ben ngodi Bdi viet lap trung ldm ro nhung nhdn to thdch thiic ben trong (chinh tri - xd hoi, an ninh - quoc phdng, khoa hoc - cong nglw. sire manh mem) doi vdi viic dgt duac sice mgnh long hgp quoc gia ciia An Do.
Tir khoa: An Do, siic manh ciing, siic manh mem, sue manh long hop quoc gia, thach thuc Mddau
Mac du, thuat ngir sire manh tong hop quoc gia (Comprehensive National Power, viet tat: CNP) chi thirc su dugc biet dSn vao nhung nam 80 ciia the ky XX (Huang Shuofeng, 1992), nhung day lai la khai niem khong moi a An Dp. Quan di§m ctia An Do v^ "sue manh tong hgp qu6c gia" da c6 tu thai co dai va dugc th£ hien ro net qua Arthashastra - la van ban chinh ve van hoa chien luac cua An Do, va la mot cu6n sach va chii nghia hien thirc chlnh tri (Boesche, Roger, 2002).
Tir rdt lau triroc khi Xhh gidi phuang Tay tra thanh nen van minh anh hudng manh me d^n ddi song kinh te, chinh tri va quan he quoc tS ciia thS gidi, thi vao thdi cd dai, d An Do, nha hien triet va quan tri gia Kautilya (350-283 TCN) thdng qua tac phSm Arthashastra da dua ra nhiing quan diem, gia thii>4t v^
khai niem Shakn" (power) - "quyin lire", theo dd quyen lire khdng phai la cong cu va luon thay doi (i:autilya,pp.l35-136).
' Bai via la kk qua cua DI tai nghien ciiu dp Bg "Sue manh Tdng hap qudc gia ciia An Bo- ihuc irgng vd tru vong" do Vien Nghien ciiu An Dp va Tay Nam A chii tri.
Nghien ciiu An Do va Chau A. Sd 1 - 2020, ir, I -9
Tran Hoang Long, Nguyen Thi Oanh. Nhung thdch ihirc doi vdi sire manh...
Thdi ky hien dai, quan diem ve CNP chua duac Chinh phii nudc nay tuyen hd chfnh thivc ma chii yeu the hien trong phat bieu ciia cac nguyen thu qudc gia va nghien ciru hgc thuat cua cac hgc gia. Tuy nhien, thdi ky hien dai, doi vdi An Do, "sire manh tong hgp quoc gia viia la nhan td cau thanh tir than, vira la muc tieu qudc gia tren con dudng phat trien, dong thdi la phuang tien de quoc gia gianh dirge quyen lyc va tam anh hudng trong quan he quoc te.. vira la iihan td quan trong, vua la ca sd, viia la ddng lire de An Do day manh quyet tam vuan ra khdi pham vi khu virc Nam A va An Do Duong, tim kiem vi the va vai trd to Ion hon d chau A - Thai Binh Duong va tren the gidi" (Dang Cam Tii, 2018, tr.l 12-! 13). Viec An Do co dat dugc muc tieu trd thanh mot "cliii the quan trong", mgt "An Do mdi", mpt cudng quoc hay khong, phu thupc rat Idn vao cac thanh td va su tac dpng qua lai giua cac thanh to cau thanh nen CNP ciia An Dp.
1. Thach thiic chinh tri - xa hoi (i) Vdn di cai cdch chinh tri
Nha su hpc Ramachandra Guha liet ke 10 thach thiic chinh tri va xa hgi (theo thii tu quan trong) ma An Do phai doi phd cd tac ddng tieu cue den tir do va nen chinh trj dan chii, do la: chu nghTa cue doan canh trai (chu nghTa Naxalism), cue doan tdn giao, chinh quyen tmng uong tham nhung, su suy giam ciia cac td chiic cdng cdng, khoang each giau ngheo ngay cang Ion, suy thoai mdi tmdng, sir phan manh chinh tri ciia he thdng bau cir An Dp, bien gidi khong dupc hda giai, "cac nudc lang gieng" khong on dinh, su thd a ciia gidi truyen thdng (fragilestates.org, 2015). Viec Thu tudng N Modi tai dac cu cung day len io ngai ve su trdi day ciia chu nghTa dan tpc Hindu va tuang lai cua nen dan chii An Dp, ciing nhu' sir canh tranh, mau thuan giua mpt ben la chii nghTa dan toe Hindu va mot ben la chii nghTa kim vuc va van de dang cap (dw.com, 2014)
Mac dil tir nam 2014 den nay, Chinh phii Modi 2.0 da tien hanh nhieu cai each chinh tri, tuy nhien cd the thay, viec cai each chinh tri van cdn de dat, chua bat kip vdi tdc do phat trien kinh te va nhu cau phat trien \a hoi. Sir phat trien ve ha tang chi'nh trj, xa hpi va van hoa chua giai quyet dugc cac mau thuan kinh te, xa hoi ton tai trong qua trinh phat trien kinh te nhanh chdng thdi gian qua. Ngoai ra, han che trong co cau quyen luc nha nudc nhu su mau thuan giira cac sang kien cua Nha nudc vdi sir can thiep ciia cac dang ddi lap trong Qudc hgi, dac biet van nan quan lieu va tham nhiing van cdn la mdt thach thirc Idn trong he thdng Nha nudc An Dp. Day ciing la mau thuan mang tinh he thong, het sue phiic tap va rat khd giai quyet.
Tir khi len nam chinh quyen den nam 2018, Thii tudng Modi da de ra nhieu chinh sach cai each nham hudng tdi mot he thong chinh tri ma "chinh phii toi thieu. qudn tri toi da" (minimum government - maximum governance) nhung tren thuc te. nhung thanh tuu dat dugc khdng nhir ky vgng, nhu thii tuc hanh chinh rudm rit, tham nhung, quan lieu, sir phan ddi ciia cac dang chinh tri doi lap, su thieu thong nhdt trong trien khai chinh sach giua chinh quyen trung uang va chinh quyen dia phucmg d cac bang Day chinh la luc can cho ehinh sach thu hiit dau tir FDI ciia An Dp, la he qua dan den sir phat trien khdng ddng deu ve kinh te giua cac bang va sir phat trien kinh te cua An Do "khdng phai la ket qua ciia qua trinh phat trien kinh te trong boi canh toan cau hoa ma la do dugc sir bao trg ciia gidi lanh dao chinh tri" (Dang Cfim TO, 2018, tr. 113).
NehienciiuAnDpvaChauA. S6 1 -2020, ir. 1-9 2
Tran Hoang Long, Nguyen Thi Oanh. Nhirng ihdch ihirc ddi vai sire manh ,, Mpt dieu dang ndi la, nam 2018, An Dp da tut xudng vi tri thu 42 trong bang xep hang Chi s6 Dan chii toan cau (currentafFairs.gktoday.in, 2019) do \kn &k bao lire tdn giao va bao lire chdng cac con"
ddng thieu sd gia tang.
(ii) Vdn di phdn quyin giiea chinh quyen trung uong vd chinh quyen cdp bang
Van de "trao quyen" cho chinh quyen dja phuang ciing la mpt thach thirc trong qua trinh trien khai eac chuang trinh, sang kien ciia Thii m'dng Modi. Cac bang ciia An Do can dugc phat huy vai tro trong qua trinh trien khai chi'nh sach ddi ndi cung nhu hoach djnh va thiic ddy cac chinh sach ddi ngoai.
(iii) Vdn de (ham nhiing
Van nan nay da dien ra mdt thdi gian dai va dang trd thanh "quoc nan", la nguyen nhan ddy liii su phat trien, la ke thii ciia cupc chien chdng ddi ngheo ciia An Dp. Theo xep hang ciia T6 chdc Minh bach qudc te, nam 2012, An Dp xep thir 94/176 nudc trong bang xep hang chi so vS nan tham nhung; nam 2013, An Do xep thir 94/177 quoc gia trong bang xep hang chi so nhan thiic tham nhung (cpi.transparency.org, 2018).
(iv) Chit nghTa ddn toe dang dinh hinh lgi chinh tri An Do, idc dong liiu cire din cde gid iri ihi lyc cua chinh tri An Do
Chii nghTa dan tdc Hindu ma dang chinh tri canh hiru nhu Dang BJP dang theo duoi nhan manh rang. An Do phai danh cho ngudi Hindu (An Do giao) trudc het (Hindus first), va luat phap, cliiiih sach qudc gia nen bd sung cho niem tin, thirc hanh Hindu giao bang each thiic day viec thuc hanh an chay hoac yoga trong tnrdng hgc; chinh sach ddi ngi ciia An Do dudi thdi Thu tudng Modi mang nang oi' tudng "Hindu giao" (Saptarshi Ray, 2019), Thu m'dng Modi da doi ten mot s6 thanh pho, thay the cac ten nhu "de che Mughal" (qudc gia Hdi giao) hay thupc dja Anh hoac cac ten cd ngudn gdc tir Hoi giao thanh cac ten co ngudn gdc tir tieng Hindi. Vi du ndi bat nhat la thanh pho Allahabad vdi han 1,1 trieu dan da dugc ddi ten chinh thiic theo tieng Hindi, thanh "Prayagraj". Tham chi, nhung ngudi Hindu con cd hanh dpng dap pha den thd, nha d, cira hang cua nhung ngudi Hdi giao. Dieu nay da thoi bung Ien ngon Ilia mau thuan tdn giao giiia ngudi Hindu va ngudi Hdi giao vdn van chay am i d An Dp.
Thii tudng Jawaharlal Nehru tumg nhan manh. An Dp la mpt qudc gia da tdn giao nen Chinh phu khdng the cd thai do phan biet doi xir vdi bat ky tdn giao nao, trat tir the tuc khdng the duy tri, trii- khi mgi ngudi tir tat ca cac tdn giao dugc hudng sir binh dang va tu do d muc dp cao nhat, Nehru gan chii nghTa the tuc trong sy phat trien tinh than con ngudi va quoe gia, no lyc xay dyng mpt nha nudc the tuc d An Do dya tren sy da dang tdn giao, chii nghTa yeu nadc va chii nghTa cdng dong vdi cac cdt loi ciia nen van minh nhan loai, dd la cac gia tri phd quat ve binh dang va ty do; y tudng the tuc ciia dng bat ngudn tir tmyln thdng van hda, ljch sir Ah Do vT dai (Vivek Kumar Srivastava, 2014), Tuy nhien, An Dp dudi thdi Thu tudng Modi, ty do, binh ddng tdn giao - nhung gia trj cot loi cua chii nghTa th8 tuc An Do - dang bj anh htrdng tieu cyc do nhung chi'nh sach "uu tien" doi vdi ngudi Hindu, khi nhung chinh sach mang nang chii nghTa dan tdc Hindu da vi pham nhOng gia trj ciia chii nghTa the tuc, Nhung ngudi thuoc cac tdn giao va cac tang Idp khac nhau trong xa hdi d£u binh dang trudc phap luat, Hien phap va Nha nirdc, va su ton tai ciia nha nudc the tuc khdng phu nhan cac gia trj ton giao. Nhung dieu nay da va dang bj lan sdng chii nghTa dan toe Hindu idn at. DiSu nay tac ddng tieu cue den cac gia tri sue manh m£m ve th6 chg chinh trj cua An Dp - von dugc biet den la nfen dan chii Idn nhat the gidi.
Nghien ciru An Dp va Chau A. Sd 1 - 2020, tr. 1 -9 3
Tran Hoang Long, Nguyen Thi Oanh. Nhirng thdch thirc ddi v&i sire manh...
2. Thach thirc kinh te, khoa hoc - cong nghe va an ninh nang lu-oiit^
2.1. vi kinhte
(i) Tdng trudng GDP bdt ddu sut gidm
Mac dil kinh te phat trien nhanh chdng va dat dugc thanh tuu dang ke, nhung sue manh tong hgp qudc gia ciia An Dd cd mgt nen tang kha yeu. Do la sir tdn tai ciia mot lugng Idn dan ngheo, ca sd ha tang chua ddng bp, dong luc phat trien kinh te chira that su manh me, kha nang canh tranh ciia thj tm'dng va hang hda An Do trong tuang quan vdi cac nudc Idn trong khu vyc (Trung Qudc) cdn yeu. Viec duy tri toe do tang tmdng cao va dn djnh trong hai hoac ba thap ky cung la mot thach thuc Idn vdi Chinh quyen Modi. O An Dp hien nay, ben canh tinh trang phan biet dan tpc, tdn giao, dang cap thi phat trien kinh te khdng ddng deu giira cae tang idp xa hpi da gia tang khoang each giira ngudi giau va ngudi ngheo. Ddng thdi, ky vgng ve sir phat trien eiia An Do ngay mot Idn han tir lang lap tmng luu md rdng d An Do ciing gay ap luc len viec dat dugc cac muc tieu kinh te va cai thien cac chi so xa hdi ciia Chinh phii Modi (Nguyen Thj Oanh, 2018).
Sy tang tm'dng kinh te cua An Dp da co dau hieu cham lai gan day; tang trudng kinh te cham lai 5,7% trong quy dau tien ciia nam tai khoa 2017 - mirc thap nhat trong ba nam (The Indian Express, 2017) Sau khi nham chirc, Thii tudng Modi da thuc hien cac bien phap tao bao de thiic day cai each nhir chi'nh sach ddi tien va cai each thue, tat ca deu mang lai nhiing ket qua dang ghi nhan, Tuy nhien, van cdn nhieu cai each quan trpng can thyc hien de dam bao sy tang trudng ben viing, Cyu Bd trudng Tai chinh An Dp, Yashwant Singh, tung phat bieu: ket qua hoat dong ngoai giao ciia Chinh phii Modi da vugt xa sir mong dgi cua ngudi dan, nhimg tien bo ve cai each kinh te hau nhu khdng dugc nhu ky vong Ashley J, Tellis, chuyen gia tai Quy Carnegie Endowment \\ hda hinh qudc te, riing cho rang An Do kiidng the dugc coi la mdt quyen lyc "hang dau" trii' khi qudc gia nay cai thien dugc cac nen tang cho phat trien kinh te, cai thien kha nang quan trj va thuc hien kha nang quan su cua minh (Ashley J.
Tellis, 2016).
(ll) Vdn de lam phdt
Toe dp tang trudng kinh te ciia An Dd dang truot doc. Du am ciia lam phat van dang vit se de nang len ngn kinh xk An Dd, Tang trudng GDP An Do giam nghiem trong, chi cdn 4,5% trong nam 2012- 2013, lam phat gia tieu diing dao dong quanh mirc 10%. An Dp la mgt trong nhung nudc eo ty le lam phat cao hang ddu the gidi va chau A (The Time of India, 2013). Lam phat gia ban le tai cac viing ndng thdn An Do vdn d miic hai chir so, gay kho khan cho cudc sdng ciia cac hp gia dinh, dac biet la nhung gia dinh co thu nhap thap.
2.2. Ve khoa hoc - cong nghi
Theo Vien Thdng ke (UIS) cua UNESCO, nam 2018, chi tieu toan cau cho R & D (Nghien cuu &
Phat trign) da dat mirc cao ky luc, gan ! ,7 nghin ty USD, Dau tu vao khoa hpc cua An Dp, ve mat chi phi gpp cho Nghien ciiu & Phat triln (GERD), da tang gdp ba idn trong thap ky qua. Tuy nhien, theo Khao sat kinh tg, chi tieu cho R&D [Nghien cuu & Phat trien] cua An Dp da bj dinh tre d muc 0,6-0,7% GDP trong hai thap ky qua, thdp hem nhieu so vdi My (2,8%), Trung Qudc (2,1%), Israel (4,3%) va Han Qu6c (4,2%). 6 An Do, ddu tu cho Nghien cuu & Phat trien tir khu vyc tu nhan rat thdp so vdi ddu tu tii' khu vuc cong, 6 hau hgt cac qu6c gia, hdu hgt cac Nghign ciiu & Phat trign dugc thyc hien bdi khu vyc tu
Nghign ciru An Dp va Chau A S6 1 - 2020, tr. 1 -9 4
Trdn Hoang Long, Nguyin Thj Oanh. Nhirng thdch thirc dSi v&i sire manh nhan; tuy nhien, d An Do, ngudn chinh, cung nhu ngudi su dung quy Nghign cuu & Phat trign, lai la Chinh phu. Theo Forbes (2017), trong danh sach 2.500 cdng ty hang dau dau tu cho R & D toan cdu, chi cd 26 cdng ty An Do, trong klii cd 301 cdng ty Trung Quoc.
Do dd, thach thiic ddi vdi su phat trien khoa hgc - cdng nghe va doi mdi, phat trien d An Dp chinh lit nguon vdn dau tu, dac biet lit sy thigu dau ty tii' khu vuc tu nhan. Trong tinh huong nhu vay, se lit khong hgp Iy khi mong dgi sy tign bg dang ke trong ddi mdi cdng nghe. Thii hai, cac nha nghien cuu phai ddi mat vdi cac van dg de tigp can nhirng phat trien mdi nhat trong ITnh vuc tu'cng iing ciia ho, Tai trg cho R & D ciia cdng ty dang cd dau hieu gia tang trong 5 nam qua. Tuy nhien, nganh cdng nghiep An Do khdng tich cyc tap trung. Cac tap doan toan cau chii yeu thuc hien hau hgt cac hoat ddng R & D cdng nghiep d An Do. Do dd, gia trj IP cua cac nghien ciru chu yeu tir khu vyc tu nhan la mot ygu cau cdp bach va la giai phap dai han hien nay ddi vdi An Dp.
2.3. Ve an ninh ndng luffng
(i) Sire ip tic gia tang ddn so, toe do tdng trudng kinh ti vd su suy gidm tir nguon eung nang hrong trong nu&e
"Can khat nang lugng" hien nay cua An Dp trudc hgt bat ngudn tir sire ep dan sd. Theo so lieu ciia Lien Hgp Quoc, neu nam 2010, dan sd An Do la 1,120 ty ngudi thi tinh dgn thdi diem thang 1/2017 la 1,335 ty ngudi, ehigm 17,86%) dan sd the gidi, la qudc gia cd dan sd ddng thii hai trgn thg gidi (Woridometers, 2018), Theo dd, nhu cau tieu thu nang lugng khi dot dugc udc tinh d miic 25 ty met khoi (2010), 36 ty m^ (2020) va 51 ty m^ (2030), tang gdp ddi rii' nam 2010 den nam 2030 (Marie Lall, 2006, p,242). Hien nay, hon 56% sd ho ndng thdn d An Do khdng cd dien de sii- dung va phan Idn ngudi dan d nong thdn vdn su dung nang lugng sinh khdi truygn thong la nguygn lieu chinh de nau nudng (Ligia Noroha, Anant Sudarshan, 2009),
Trong bdi canh An Do dang nd luc gia nhap hang ngii cac cudng quoc kinh te trong thg ky XXI thi nang luang ddng mgt vai trd quan trgng de dat dugc muc tieu nay. Theo Uy ban Kg hoach An Do, nudc nay dang phai doi mat vai yeu cdu ve mgt ngudn cung nang luang bgn vung ngu muon duy tri tdc dp tang trudng kinh te 8%/nam, cung nhu thuc hign muc tigu uu tign xda ddi giam ngheo va phat trign con ngudi. Ngoai ra, han 1/2 san lugng dien cua An Dp dugc san xudt bdng each d6t than trong nudc kem chdt lugng, 1/3 lugng ddu md dugc nhap khdu tir cac qudc gia dang co ''vdn de" trong quan he vdi My nhu Sudan, Syria hoac Iran,
Toe do tang trudng kinh te nhanh, bgn vung va sire manh hat nhan la hai digu kien tien quygt doi vdi An Dp nhdm khdng dinh vj the cudng qudc khu vyc va cudng quoc loan cau. Tuy nhien, de dat dugc muc tieu chign luge do. An Do phai cd hai digu kien "cdn", do la mpt khu vyc hda binh, dn djnh va mpt
"hdng sd" ve nang lugng tuong iing ty le thuan vdi toe do tang trudng kinh tg va dan sd, tham chi theo cdp so cgng khi tang trudng GDP cua nudc nay d muc trgn 7% (Taniya Ghosh, 2016, p 55), ddng thai
"hdng sd" nay cdn dam bao du ve so lugng va hgp ly vg gia ca, Theo so lieu tii' IAEA, thang 1/2016, nhu cdu nhien lieu ciia An Do tang len 12,7%, d muc 15,71 trieu tdn, vuat qua Nhat Ban de trd thanh qudc gia tieu thu dau Idn thii ba tren thg gidi (Ajeya Bandyopadhyay, 2016).
Ngoai ra, nguon cung ddu thd trong nudc ciia An Do cung cd xu hudng giam. Trudc bien dpng ciia gia ddu thg gidi, nganh cong nghiep ddu md va khi dot An Dp dang phan ung bdng viec cat giam ngan
Nghign ciru An D6 va Chau A. S6 1 - 2020, tr. 1 -9 ^
Tran Hoang Long, Nguyen Thi Oanh. Nliimg thdch thirc ddi vdi sire mgnh...
sach ddu tu. Con s6 dugc dua ra la 30% trong nam 2015, digu nay dan den viec tham dd, khai thac cd thg bi cdt giam (Sudheer Pal Singh, 2016). Theo bao cao cua BP Energy Outlook 2035, cdng bo \ao thang 2/2015, thi phan san xuat nang lugng ciia An Do (bao gdm than, ddu md, khi ddt va nhien lieu sinh hgc) trong tong miic tigu thy se giam tii 59%) (2015) xu6ng cdn 56%. (2035). Mdt nghien ciiu nam 2014 cua McKinsey dya trgn udc tinh GDP, tdc do tang tnrdng, ca cau ngn kinh tg va tdc do aia tang dan so, du bao nhu cau nhap khau nang lugng thd ciia An Dp se tang tir 30%) trong nam 2010 lgn 51% vao nam 2030 (Planing Commission, Government of India, 2005).
Do vay. An Do tmdc mat can dap iing du ngudn cung ve nang lugng cho tat ca cac nganh trong ca cau kinh te, ngudi dan, hd gia dinh; iing phd dugc cac cii soc ve kinh te va sy gian doan ve ngudn cung.
(iiJ Sir phu thuoc vdo ngudn cung ndng luong ben ngodi vd sic biin ddng ciia thj tnrdng ddu md the gidi Hien nay. An Do nhap khau 81%) nhu cau dau thd vdi trj gia khoang 150 ty USD, chiem gdn 10%
GDP qudc gia. Theo Ca quan Nang lugng Nguygn tii Qudc te (IAEA), den nam 2035, nhu cau nana lugng CLia An Do se chiem 7% nhu cau nang lugng toan cau va de dap ung nhu cau nay, nhap khau nang lucmg se tang lgn I63%j so vdi hien nay. Dieu dd cd nghTa, An Dp se nhap khau gan mgt niia nhu cau nang lupng. Theo sd lieu cua Bd Thong ke va Trign khai Chuang trinh An Dd, tir nam 2013 - 2014, An Do nhap khau 189 trieu tan dau thd va tdng miic tieu thu cua An Dp trong thdi gian nay la 222 trieu tan.
Con sd nay cho thay, 85%) nhu cau ve dau tho ciia An Do dugc dap iing tir nhap khau - mdt con so gia tang dang kg so vdi 76%i trong nam 2005-2006. Sd lieu tir Bp Dau md va Khi dot An Do cho thay su phu thugc vao dau md ben ngoai ciia An Dp trong nam 2013 - 2014 dmiic 17,6%, cao hon so vdi miic 76%
nam 2011 -2012 (Sudheer Pal Singh, 2015). Nam 2015, Thu tudng Narendra Modi da tirng tuyen bd. An Dp phai giam sy phu thupc vao nhap khau nang lugng (dau tho, khi thign nhien va than da) tir 77%
(2015) xudng cdn 50%> (2030). Tuy nhien, thyc te cho thay muc tieu nay rat khd dat dugc.
Sy phu thupc ngay cang tang vao phan cdn lai cua the gidi khdng chi gidi ban d dau md, khi tu nhign, nang lugng hda thach (than da), ma con ca uranium dg duy tri chuang trinh dien hat nhan. Mirc do phu thupc vao nhap khau ciia An Dp trong nam 2005 - 2006 lit khoang 24%j tong lupng tieu thu nang lugng sa cap va khoang 30%i tdng lugng tieu thy nang lugng thuang mai. Theo kjch ban tiet kiem nang lugng nhat, trong nam 2031 - 2032, su phu thupc vao nhap khau cua An Dp cd the tang lgn 28% tong lupng tigu thu nang lugng so cap va 32% tdng lugng tigu thu nang lugng thuong mai. Theo kich ban toe dp tang tmdng kinh te - xa hdi nhu hien nay, su phu thugc vao nhap khau ciia An Dp nam 203 1 - 2032 se tang lgn 49% tdng tieu thy nang lugng sa cap va 54% tieu thu nang lugng thuang mai (Sudheer Pal Singh, 2015).
Vdi viec gia dau thg gidi rdt gia, tir 100 USD/thiing xudng cdn 30 USD/thiing, da giiip ngn kinh te An Dp phat trien tdt do giam dugc ap luc tir lam phat, cai thien tham hut tai khoan vang lai va giam tham hut ngan sach bang each loai bd trg cap gia dau, Trong nam tai chinh 2015-2016, An Dp da nhap hem 202 trieu tan dau, cao hon 7%) ve khdi lugng, nhung chi phai tra 64 ty USD, thap hon 43%i so vdi nam tai chinh 2014-2015 (Sudheer Pal Singh, 2015). Tuy nhien, gia dau thap ciing mang lai riii ro cho xuat khau An Do khi A Rap Saudi va UAE, hai nha cung cap dau Idn nhat ciia An Do va Tay A - khu vyc cd nguon
"dy trir ngoai hdi Idn nhat cua An Do" - chiu anh hudng nang ne nhat do su sut giam gia dau, Dieu nay dy bao ve mdt gia tri thuong mai am dam cua An Dp d cac qudc gia nay.
Nghien ciiu An Dp va Chau A. S6 1 - 2020, tr. 1 -9 6
Tran Hoang Long, Nguyen Thj Oanh. Nhihig thdch thirc ddi v&i sire manh...
Theo Chinh phu An Do, den nam 2025, An Do se la qudc gia doi mat vdi ap luc nang lugng Idn thii hai the gidi sau Trung Qudc. Day lit thdi diem ma An Dp can mdt sire sdng mdi de ddi mat vdi tinh hinh mdi nham thiic day su thanh cdng ve "cau chuyen ciia An Dp" (India-story) d nudc ngoai, giiip An Dp dam bao an ninh nang lugng, gianh dugc vj tri cudng quoc khu vyc va trgn thg gidi (Nguygn Thi Oanh, 2017).
3. Thach thiic ve sire manh mem
Cd nhieu nguyen nhan de ly giai cho van de An Do khdng Igt vao top 30 ve chi sd siic manh mem toan cau nam 2018.
Tmdc het. An Dp van la qudc gia cd chi sd tham nhiing cao, ngheo doi, vkn dg nu-quygn...
Thii hai, trong tuong quan so sanh vdi cac nudc phat trign thi quoc gia dang phat trign nhu An Dd cd sy thua kem ro ret vg cac chi so binh quan dau ngudi. Mat khac. An Do ciing thugc top 30 trong Cau lac bg Khdi nghiep Ky lan (The Billion Dollar Startup Club), chi diing sau My va Trung Qu6c, nhung thyc tg cho thay, An Do lai la qudc gia cd miic ap dung ky thuat sd vao khdi nghiep thdp. Mot hien thuc hien nay d An Do la tinh trang thigu dien, vdi hang trieu ngudi chua duoc su dung dien day dii Ngoai My, Trung Qudc va Anh, mac dii la qudc gia cd rat nhigu di san the gioi nhung An Do van cd miic diem vg du lich va giao due trgn ca sd binh quan dau ngudi thap.
Thu ba, su quan ly va dieu hanh ciia khu vuc cong ddi vdi van de lan toa cac gia tri van hoa An Dp da anh hudng den hieu qua ngoai giao van hoa ciia nudc nay, Hau het cac van de ve du lich, van hoa d An Dp deu do khu vyc cdng quan ly va dieu hanh, chua thu hut dugc su tham gia vii dau tu- cua khu vyc tu nhan. Vi du, cac hang hang khdng quoc gia An Dp (Air India) deu dang trong tinh trang xudng cap dgn mirc Chinh phii phai vat lgn de keu ggi su ddu tu tir khu vyc tu nhan, Trong khi do, 4 trong so cac hang hang khdng tang trudng nhanh nhdt thg gidi (can cii- vao dan dat hang may bay) bao gom Indigo, SpiceJet, GoAir va Jet Airways dgu thugc sd hii-u cua ngudi An va la cac doanh nghiep tu nhan. Do vay, sy lan tda gia trj van hoa An Do, tii Yoga dgn Bollywood hien nay chi dugc thuc hien chu yeu vdi khu vuc nha nudc. Chua ke, khac vdi Trung Quoc - quoc gia da xay dyng rat nhigu Hpc vien Khdng tir d nudc ngoai nhdm day tieng Hoa va lan tda van hda Trung Hoa, thi viec thiic day hpc tieng Hindi d nudc ngoai ciia Chinh phii An Dp chua thyc sy dugc chii trgng,
Thir tu, nhirng ddng gdp ctia ngudi An nhieu trudng hgp khdng gan lien vdi sy phat trien ciia dat nudc. Cu thg, xudt khdu thanh cdng nhat ciia nha san xudt xe hai Idn nhdt An Do - Tata Motors - la xe Jaguar Land Rove, nhung viec san xudt va idp rap xe nay lai diin ra d Anh, chii khdng phai d An Do, Vi du khac. An Do ia que huong ciia Phat giao va cd hang trieu tin dd Phat giao trgn thg gidi nhung mdt nghjch !y la rdt it ngudi d An Do theo Phat giao. Tham chi, trong khi Phat giao da trd nen rat phd bien d Nhat Ban, Thai Lan, Sri Lanka va Mdng Cd thi tdi nhirng nam gdn day. An Dp mdi cd cac ddng thai khdng djnh rdng An Do la que huong ciia Phat giao bdng each tao digu kien cho cac cudc hanh huang vg
"ddt Phdt" va tai trg cho cac hoat ddng hoi phuc tdn giao d Trung Qudc va Myanmar.
Thii nam, trong nhigu vdn de, sy hap ddn cac gia trj ciia An Do thudng dgn tir cac nudc dang phat trien hon la cac nudc phat trign. Vi du, hien nay, mac dii An Dp cd mdt sd trudng dai hgc uy tin tren thg gidi, nhung cac tmdng nay chu yeu thu hiit mgt so lugng Idn sinh vien dgn tii khap cac nudc dang phat trien nhu Nepal, Afghanistan, chau Phi va mdt so nudc Ddng Nam A; rdt it sinh vien den tu cac nudc phat trign
Nghien ciiu An Dp va Chau A. Sd 1 - 2020, Ir. 1 -9 "^
Tran Hoang Long, Nguyin Thi Oanh. Nhimg thdch thirc ddi vai sue manh...
4. Thach thirc an ninh - quoc phong
An Bo hien nay vin la quoc gia cd chi tieu qudc phong tucmg ddi thdp. Chi tieu qudc phong cua An Dd hien nay la 1,62%) GDP. Day la t\' le thap nhat kg tir nam 1962, va dieu do se khdng ho trg tich cue cho viec hien dai hda quan sy dg trd thanh mpt cudng qudc hang dau va mdt nha cung cap ket ndi an ninh nhu An Do hudng den, cung nhu thach thiic phai doi pho vdi mpt Trung Qudc va Pakistan ngay cang quygt doan.
Cac cai each ve chinh sach phat trien quoc phdng hien nay chua dap iing duac bdi canh cau tnic an ninh khu vyc va toan cau dang cd bien ddng khd djnh doan. Trong bdi canh cac nudc Idn va tam trung trong khu vuc va thg gidi dang no luc hien dai hda qudc phong, thi An Dp can gia tang han niia quy mo vit mirc do dau tu cho qudc phdng. Mat khac, cd y kien cho rang, siic manh quan sy An Do van chi trong giai doan dau ciia qua trinh phat trien kha nang tac chien, tinh trang san sang ciia luc lugng vii trang An Do chua cao (Dang Cdm Tii, 2018, tr.l46-147).
Ngoai ra, CNP ciia An Dp con bi tac ddng tigu cue tir cac van de nhu: chinh sach doi ngoai cua An Do cung bi anh hudng bdi bg may quan lieu trong nudc vdn bi anh hudng nang ng cua y thiic he tu tudng. Bp may hanh chinh quan lieu cong kenh, thii tuc hanh chinh ru-dm ra, ca che quan ly chua hieu qua anh hudng rat Idn dgn viec trien khai cac sang kign cai each kinh te va xa hgi.
Ket luan
Tdm lai, siic manh tdng hgp qudc gia ciia An Dp bj thach thuc bdi cac van de tren cac ITnh vuc chinh trj - xa hdi, kinh tg, khoa hpc - cdng nghe va an ninh nang lugng vg siic manh mgm va ve an ninh qudc phong. Sy sut giam tdc dp tang trudng kinh te nhung nam gan day, mau thuan quan he xa hpi, quan he nha nudc - xa hgi nang ng, xung dot sac tpc, tdn giao,,,, nhirng digu da tdn tai trong sudt ljch sii dpc lap An Dp tigp tuc tac dpng den qua trinh xay dyng CNP ciia An Do.
An Dp cd trd thanh cudng quoc hay khdng phu thugc viio khii nang dat dugc nhiing thanh tuu da chieu ve cac mat nhu: cai thien higu qua kinh te vit hpi nhap khu vyc sau rdng ban, phat trign mpt nang lyc quan su manh me de di kem vdi mgt chinh sach doi ngoai khdn ngoan nham muc dich sir dung vii duy tri thanh cdng nen dan chu bang each khai day nigm tu hao dan tdc va tham vgng ciing co vj the quoc gia tren tmdng qudc te ciia nhan dan (Ashley J. Tellis, 2016).
Cd the thay rang, dua tren ca sd sue manh tdng hgp qudc gia ciia An Dp hien nay, trong tam ngan va tmng han. An Do chua the trd thanh cudng quoc thg gidi do cdn tdn tai nhieu thach thii-c ca bgn trong va bgn ngoai. Tham chf, khi cd thg giai quygt cac thach thuc, thi An Do cting chi cd the trd thanh cudng quoc kinh te hoac quan sy do nhung han che ve mat chinh trj, xa hdi va sire manh mem. Thuc te lich sir phat trien 72 nam tir sau klii gianh ddc lap dgn nay da cho thay, mac dii thyc hien nhieu cai each kinh te, nhieu cupc each mang trong kinh tg nhu each mang trang, each mang xanh, each mang nau, each mang mau nghe tay nhung An Dp van chi la mdt quoc gia dang phat tnen, mdt nudc Idn dang trdi day. Lyc can ve xa hpi, ve van de dang cap, tdn giao vdi mdt sd dan khong Id khien An Do trong ngan han va trung han van chua thg trd thanh cudng qudc lanh dao the gidi.
Nghien ciiu An Dp va Chau A. So 1 - 2020, tr.1-9
Trdn Hoang Long, Nguygn Thj Oanh. Nhihig thdeh Ihirc ddi v&i sue manh...
Tai lieu tham khao
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Lexington Books.
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http://indianexpress,com/article/opinion/co]umns/yashwant-sinha-arun-jaitley-gst-demonetisation-narendra-modi- economy-bjp-i-need-to-speak-up-now-4862716, ngiy tray cap 18/6/2019.
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12 Original Kautilya's Arthashastra (KA) defines "Shakti / Power" in Book No 9, Chapter No !, Sutras No 135-136; hereafter denoted as KA 9:1,135-136.
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Nghign ciiu An D o va Chau A. So 1 - 2 0 2 0 , tr.1-9
