NGHIEN Cl/U
Xu hirong phat tri^n moi cua n^n kinh t^ th^ gi6i:
Ca hoi va thach thuc doi voi Viet Nam
BtUThu'ftBng
Vien Kinh te Viet Nam, Vien Han lam KHXH Viet Nam
Budc sang the ki XXI, day la thdi ky ma cac quan he qudc td da phat tri^n ddn miic tat ca cae qudc gia dii Idn hay nhd, dii thudc he thd'ng kinh td xa hdi nao deu chiu su tac ddng tuong tac lan nhau dd cd thd tdn tai va phat tridn, n^n kinh td the gidi bao gdm nhieu ndn kinh td qudc gia dang hong qua trinh bien doi chuydn din sang nen kinh td toan cku. Md hinh tang tmdng kinh le trong tuong lai cua ndn kinh te Vipt Nam cung dang va sd chiu tac ddng ciia nhiing thay doi xu the phat trien n^n kinh te the gidi.
1. Cac xu hmmg phat trien mbl cua nen Idnh te the gidi
sau xu hudng idn hien nay dang anh hudng tdi su tang trudng kinh td toan eiu la chuydn ddi nhan khdu hgc, cdng nghd ddt pha, xu the dao ngugc toan c^u hda, b^t binh d^ng ve gidi, bidn ddi khi hau va su troi d^y mtinh me ciia Tmng Qudc.
0 Chuyen djeh nhan khdu hoc: Thd gidi da va dang didn ra mdt sy phan bd khdng ddng ddu giQa luc lupng lao ddng toan eiu va eae qudc gia phat tridn noi cd nhieu ciia cai v§t chat. Tudi thp dan sd the' gidi da tang 37% tii 52,572 tudi nam I960 idn 72,035 tudi nam 2016 eho tha^y siic tang trudng ciia ndn kinh td toan cku da mang Igi eupc sdng tdt hon eho hau hdt moi ngudi song cung phan anh xu hudng gia hda eiia dan sd toan cku. Ty le dan sd trong dp tudi lao ddng tai cac qudc gia phat tridn thtip hon rcit nhieu so vdi ty Id tuong ty tai cae qude gia mdi ndi va dang phat trien va su khac biet nay se cang gia tang trong hai thap ki tdi.
Dan sd toan Cciu vlin tiep tuc qua trinh gia hda tuy nhidn vdi tdc dd khdng ddng ddu giua cac khu vue.
ii) Su dot phdi cua cdng nghe cao: Su phat trien tidn hda cua ndn kinh td so toan cau tii giai doan (i) bao gom; vien thdng, djeh vy thdng tin, san xuat phan Cling va he thdng co sd ha ting vidn thPng va cdng nghd thdng tin, sang giai doan (ii) bao gdm: kinh td ndn tang, kinh te chia sd, ndi dung sd, va tiep tye tien Idn giai doan (iii) bao gom: thucmg mai didn tii, edng nghidp 4.0, ndng nghiep thdng minh va chinh phu didn tii da tao thay doi nhieu linh vye trong cuOc sdng (Bukht va Heeks, 2017). Kinh te sd da tao nen Icri the canh tranh eho cac nude phat tridn noi dku tu Idn cho hoat dgng nghien ciiu va phat tridn, cd trinh do khoa hpc — edng nghe tien tien va ling dung rdng rai cac thanh tyu ve khoa hpc va edng nghe vao cac linh vyc khac nhau trong cudc sdng.
1 O KINH Tfi CHAU A - THAI SiNH DucrNQ ( T H A N E S / Z Q 1 g]
Hieu ling lan tda ciia ndn kinh te sd da vuot ra khdi pham vi ciia mdt qude gia va trd thanh mot hong nhiing thach thiic ddi vdi cae chinh phii trong vide quan ly cae boat ddng san xuit kinh doanh dya trdn nen tang sd. Nhu vay, cd the thiy su phat Men ciia khoa hpc cdng nghe mang lai nhidu mat tich cue nhung cung gay nen sy bi ddng cho eae nude trdn the gioi, d^c biet tai eae nude cd trinh dd quan ly va phat tnen khoa hpc edng nghd cdn nhieu han ehd.
ill) Bdt binh ddng: Xet trdn pham vi toan cku, phan hoa giau ngheo giua cie nude se thu hep 1^ khi c^c nude dang phat tridn thu hep khoang each vdi eic n ^ ^ ?'!" ? • ^^"^ ' ° " § •'<'"§ ^^" c^a doi mdi cdng
"hue CO tav n S " ' " "'•" '"""^ ™' ^^' " § ^ *^« ^^"g ^ It nlno ' ' ' 'f"f ^ ' P P^^" g'^^ bdt khoang each nang cao thu nhap binh quan diu nqudi so vdi cAr nude dang phat tridn, do dd su chenh feTh i K ^ K H dang trong thu nhap giua eae quTe g t e V t f. - g.am dan, Ngugc lai su phan hda trong thu n b r i ; ? bat bmh ding gidi tai mdi qude gia Snt^^^^ ^^
tang. Tai cac nude phat trien k h o L 3 c h ' ^ "^l ^'^
g'au va eae nhdm khae gia tang dang ^ f , ^ ^ " ' ^ ° " "
kinh t^ thien v^ nhdm chop bu giau ?6 , ^ 5 T '"^' .«^J Dao nguoc loan cdu h6a: Ke tir sau / 7 :'ang kinh te toan cau nam 2008 t h u l ^"^''^'^"^
ciu CO xu hudng Chung lai do vin c S l " " ^ ' phue hoi. Khdi luano ih.rrmo m.i ..-. y^. "^oan toan
2011 hoang kinh le toan can nam 2008, ftu™'*' ^ c4u CO xu huong chung lai do vSn c S l " " " ' phuc ho,. Khoi H,gng thiKmg mai tu Z S"""
1992-2005 keo theo ty le tang Imcmg f„^' S'^i doan hirong giam xuong chi con tu 0,9% de'nTl!"^' <^6 "u vo, no la Men tucmg cac dong chay tai e S « '^tag da dugc khoi phuc tro lai lu nam 2009 nh,„ "^'^ du c6 xu huong thu hep lai va chua the dat rt '^' ''ang ma nhu giai doan tmdc do (WB, 2018b) " ' ^ "* quy
cae sy kien nhu Anh quydt dinh rdi khdi EU (Brexit); My nit khdi Hiep djnh Ddi tac xuydn Thai Binh Duong (TPP); My nit khdi Hiep dinh Paris; My nit khdi Hdi Ddng nhan quydn Lien Hgp Qudc da eho thiy chii nghia dan tiiy dang ndi Idn tren the gidi. Nam 2018, Hoa Ky da thay ddi chinh sach thuong mai ciia minh bang each ap thud Idn hang loat cic qudc gia cd tham hut thuong m^i Idn vdi qude gia nay nhu Canada, Mexico va dac bidt la Tmng Qude. Mot loat cae nude khac nhu EU, Nhat Ban va Han Qude trudc dd da bi canh bao nam trong danh sach ap thud ciia Hoa Ky va budc phii nhugng bd bang nhiing tbda thuan mdi vdi nhidu didu khoan thuan lgi hon eho Hoa Ky. Vide cac nude phat tridn chip nhin chii nghia bao hd thuang mai trd lai, thudng xuydn sii dung cac Idnh cam van ve thuong mai de gay anh hudng vd chinh tri dang t^o ndn nhiing thach thiic cho ndn kinh td toan ciu dac bidt ddi vdi de dga tdi da hoi phyc
"mdi hinh thanh" cua cac thi trudng mdi ndi va di nguoe l^i qua trinh "toin ciu hda" hien nay.
v) Tdc dong cua bien ddi khi hau: Tinh trang bien ddi khi hau dang cd xu hudng gay nhieu thidt hai cho cac qudc gia trdn thd gidi, dac bidt la cac nude ven bi^n. Nhiet do tmng binh thd gidi tang Idn lam tan bang tcii Nam cue va Bac cue, dan den myc nude bidn dang cao dang. Su xuit hidn ngay cang nhieu sd lugng cac con bao vdi cudng dd ngay eang Idn da gay anh hudng ddn eae qudc gia tren the gidi. Bao eao ciia td chlic Health and Environment International Tmst ciia Lidn hop qudc cho bidt, ed tdi 43 qude gia bj suy giam ve kinh td do nang ndng va bidn ddi khi hdu. Theo World Bank, eae nude dang phat trien can khoang 70- 100 ty USD/nam ddn nam 2050 de dap ling cac nhu ciu thich ling vdi bien ddi khi hau hidn tai va tuong lai.
Nhu vay, rd rang la tac ddng eiia bien ddi khi hau anh hudng rit Idn den tang tnrong kinh td trong pham vi toan cau, di kdm theo nd cdn la sy gia tang cua bat 6n xa hdi, gdp phin trim trpng them bat binh dang xa hdi do su tac ddng khdng ddng ddu ciia bidn ddi khi hau tdi tiing qudc gia, khu vuc Diing tmdc nhung nguy ca do bien ddi khi hau, phdt trien ben viing trd nen thach thiic ddi vdi ndn kinh te ciia cae qudc gia trdn ph^m vi toan ciu.
ui) Sii trdi ddy cua Trung Qudc: Ndn kinh td Tmng Qudc da cd nhiing budc chuydn minh than tdc ca vd chitva lupng khi tdc dd tang trudng GDP tang tii 7,6%
nam 1979 (nam Tmng Qudc bat diu qua trinh cai each va md eiia nen kinh te) len 14,2% nam 2007, Ke tii sau eudc khung hoang kinh te' tai ehinh toan ciu nam 2008, nen kinh te cua Tmng Qudc mac dil da cd su phyc hoi nhat djnh song dang budc vao giai doan giam tdc va dugc du bao se chi dat 5,8% nam 2022 (Hinh 4). De tim giai phap khic phyc tang trudng kinh td cham lai, Tmng Qudc dang tien hanh mdt cudc cai each toan dien nen kinh td theo dd hudng vao tang tmdng theo chidu sau va day manh dau tu nude ngoai
dd tang tam anh hudng toan cau. Sang kidn "Con dudng, vanh dai" do Cbd tich Tmng Qudc Tap Can Binh khdi xudng nam 2013 ii mdt trong nhu vi du didn hinh. Dieu nay eOng dong nghia vdi viec Tmng Qude se giu lai cae doanh nghidp cd chit lugng ed ham lupng cdng nghd eao, san xuit ra nhiing san phim ed gia tri gia tang cao va Ii xuong sdng eua nen kinh td.
Them vao dd, cudc chidn tranh thuong m^i giiia Hoa Ky va Tmng Qudc dang ngay mdt leo thang se la ddng luc dd Tmng Qudc day nhanh qua trinh tai co cau nen kinh td dd h^n ehe nhiing anh hudng tidu cue eiia chien tranh thuong mai.
2. Cff hoi va thach thirc flol vdi Viet Nam 2.1. Loi thd phat trien ciia Vidt Nam Vidt Ncun ed vi tri dja ly chidn luge, nim tai tmng tam khu vyc Ddng Nam A, ddng thdi cung la tmng tam ciia eae qudc gia phat tridn nang ddng, mdi ndi hien dang ddng vai trd la ddng luc tang trudng cho khu vue va the gidi. Trong nhiing nam qua vi the ciia Viet Nam khdng ngung dupe nang cao. Nhidu thanh tyu vd kinh te'-ehinh tri-xa hdi da dat duoc gdp phan tao ra tien dd cho phat tridn va hdi nhap sau hon vdi eae qude gia trong khu vuc va tren the gidi.
Nen tang kinh te vi md dugc ciing cd, nhidu chinh saeh giai phip dn dinh kinh te' vi md duge thye hien dam bdo nham kidm soat lam phat, va cac can ddi Idn ciia nenn kinh te tao dieu kien dn dinh cho mdi trudng kinh doanh vd tang trudng thuang mai. Bdn canh dd dat nude cQng tang cudng hdi nhap kinh te qude te thdng qua viec tham gia va thue hien eae cam kdt hdi nhap kinh td qude td thidt lap dupe nhieu quan he ddi tac chien luge ve phat trien kinh te, gdp phin thiic diy qua trinh tham gia vao mang sin xuit, chudi gia tri toan ciu.
Co ciu din sd Viet Nam trong thdi gian qua cung cd nhiing sy dich chuyen tich cyc gdp phin tao ra nhiing co hdi thiic day tang toe phat tridn kinh te. Tu nam 2007, Vidt nam budc vao thdi ky "dan so vang"
vdi ty Id, cii hai ngudi trong do tudi lao ddng (tii 15-59 tudi) chi phii cdng mdt ngudi phy thudc. Co hgi ciia thdi ky "dan sd vang" se la mdt lgi the rat Idn, la ddng luc tac ddng ddn phat trien kinh te ciia Viet nam trong giai doan sap tdi thdng qua ba eo ehd: cung cap lao ddng, tiet kiem va vdn eon ngudi.
2.2. Mdt sd thach thiic ciia Vidt Nam Thii nhit, khoang each ciia Viet Nam vdi eae qude gia phat tridn mdi noi trong khu vue vin edn kha Idn xet vd tdc dp tang trudng GDP va tang nang suit lao ddng. Khoang cich tang trudng GDP ciia Viet nam so vdi cac nude trong khu vuc cd nguy co bj ndi rpng.
Viet nam mac du ludn duy tri tdc dp tang trudng GDP d muc kha, Tdc dp tang trudng GDP tmng binh trong 15 nam qua dat xapxi 7% nam. Tuy nhidn trong nhiing nam gin day da tang trudng GDP cd xu hudng giam
1
NGHIEN CUU
sut. Mdt trong nhiing nguyen nhan suy giam tdc dp tang tmdng cua GDP la do anh hudng tii chidn tranh thuang mai giCra hai cudng qudc kinh td the gidi la My va Tmng Qudc. Mat khac, GDP ciia Viet nam mac dii tang tmdng deu dan trong nhiing nSm qua vdi tdc dp kha nhung vin thap so vdi cac nude trong khu vyc. Ve qui md nen kinh te, GDP ciia Viet nam nam 2017 dat 5007.9 ty, tuong duong vdi hern 220 ty USD. Tuy nhien qui md nay van cdn thip so vdi tiem nang dit nude.
Nang suit lao ddng ciia Viet nam trong giai doan 2011-2017 tang binh quan 4.72% mdt nam, cd xu hudng tang nhe so vdi miic 4.35% cua giai doan 2011- 2015 song kbPng phat tridn tuong xiing ndu so sanh vdi miic tang lao ddng. Hon niia so sanh vdi miic tang nang suit lao ddng eiia mdt sd nude trong khu vuc, d^e biet vdi nhiing nude cdng nghiep mdi, nang suit lao ddng ciia nude ta hidn nay vin cdn d miic thap so vdi cac nude trong khu vye va khong ddng d^u giua cac nganh va linh vye.
Biag U Ning su
n«ui>6n9 IMO
:; •
• t l i o
S « i _
d;D| vi tiDg D i n | su
t! ft
m millio
f I
dfdg gUi dofn 2006-2017
1 „./
II
S47 " • '
iSih-l
I!! 1 1
«
AO 60 tn
Z
OiiaMi.N5WUnlillit<igldlliilctll6tattansN5U>tlnhtM>MitglisoitnlilOIO.
Thu hai, nang lue canh tranh cda Viet Nam cdn thip. Trong bing xdp hang v^ nang lue toan ciu nam 2015, Vidtnamxdp thii56/i40 vdidiemnanglyc canh tranh dat 4.2 trdn muc thang diem 7. Nam 2016, Viet nam bj tut hang xep thii 60/138 mac du cd didm so nhinh hem 4.31. Theo tieu chi ciia Didn dan kinh te the gidi (WEF), Viet nam dugc ehim diem eao nhat d Yeu ciu can ban (ddi mdi the ehe, co sd ha tang, mdi trudng kinh te vi md, y te va giao dye phd thdng) vdi 4.5 didm, xdp thii 73. Tuy nhien, nhdm yeu to ve ddi mdi sang tao va miic dd tinh thdng trong kinh doanh (s6 lupng va chat lugng cac nha cung ling dja phuong, su phat tridn etia eym nganh kinh te, do rdng ciia chuoi gia tri) ed xu hudng cai thien cham. So sanh vdi mdt so qudc gia trong ASEAN, sy cai thidn nang luc canh tranh eiia Viet neim vin chua ed nhiing budc dot pha. Indonesia tang 18 bac, tu hang 54 len hang 36 nam 2017, Philippines tang 15 bac tii 71 len 56
Thu ba, kinh te tu nhan chua phat trien. Hien nay, ddng gdp ciia GDP ehii yeu dua vao khu vue kinh te ngoai nha nude. Ty trgng kinh te nha nude giam khdng dang ke khoang 0.44% trong khi miic dp ddng gdp ciia khu vue kinh te tu nhan (la cac doanh nghidp n) tang d miic dd cham 1,1% so vdi nam 2010.
LTc cd doanh nghiep diu tu nude ngoai tang ig 3% so vdi nam 2010 tuy nhien neu chi tinh
s X y d ^ ' " ""'• ""'• ">" 'h' hiu nhukhanS c6 . Ciu talc vi so htm cho ihSy, n«n kinh 1^ « « nam hau nhu khong c6 ihay d«i g, nhieu v4 mat ciu Iruc.
Cac doanh nghiep vCa va nho chua phai huy duac cSc the manh ciia minh trong vijc phat Irien kinh 16. Ty trong gia tn gia tang ciia khu vuc chu sa hdu nay vao GDP rat thap dual 10%
Thii lu, CO cau nganh phan bfi khong hop ly- Tang truong kinh te cua Viet Nam thai gian qua van bi chi phdi bai cac nganh san xu^t (ndng, lam, ngu nghiep va cong nghiep) la chii yeu (chi^m toi 2/3 GDP), con phan dong gop ctia khu vuc thuang mai, dich vu duac danh gia la thap, 37,7% (giai doan 2001-2005) va 40%
(giai doan 2006-2010). Su lien ket giua cac nganh, khu vuc va thanh phan kinh te rat yeu va hau nhu khong CO. Cac cum nganh a VN khong t6n tai. Bi^u nay da l^m cho cac san pham cua Vi6t nam rai rac, khong lien quan de'n nhau, khdng tao duac hi6u ling lan toa tren thi trudng.
Thii nam, mat can bang trong ty 16 thu chi cOa Chinh phu. Ty 16 chi tr6n GDP ciia Viet nam thuoc loai cao, cho den nam 2016, ty trong nay v4n a miic 28%
GDP Trong do chi thudng xuyen van chi6'm ty trgng Ion (hon 70%) va duoc cho la da Idn hon miic thu tu H ! : ? u^"" ''*" * ' '*" ^'^" "° cong tang nhanh do Iham hut ngan sach. BiJu nay se anh huong tdi
^ h f d 1 ™ """8 '^^ Chinh phii n6-u chinh phu Ngoaf a ^ i f ' " " ' * * '">°"S phai de d4u tu.
ch,u Lh^a^ ™ ? " 8 ' " " Vi6t nam cdn phai ganh -"^ '^'^ ""hMn hd trg tir Chinh phu./.
Tai lieu tham khao
World Bank: 2016, 2017 2ois.n- • the " . ":ui8. Bao cao phat Oiin http://www.worldbankori!/enM„hr . SWi
ILO: Trien vang ^,^f;"^P"'"'«>.on/wdr2018 hudng 2018 https://www.ilo.o,^i,^„'J,.'"'' "'*'' * * '"'
Wayne M. Monison' CD": o
Economic R.se: History ^"'^ 2018: China's Implicatidn for the United State ''' Challenges,
Tdng cue thong k6: Bao cao tinh h- u tri xa hdi nam 2016, 2017, 2018 ''""h te chinh
VNPl: Bao cao Nang Sua Vietnam,„
MIT Joint Program on the S c i e r ' ^ ° ' ^ Global Change: Food-Water-Enercl^'!"'' ^°''<^y df LOOK Perspective trdm 2016 «'^"maie Qui-.
Wdrld Trade Organization- 2018-
Reporl https://www.wto.org/english;, °"'' Trade tions_e/Wdrld_Uade reportlS epdf -"^'Publica
