UNG DUNG M O HINH THUY
D O N G L U CHOC MIKE 11 PHUC VU CONG TAC QUY HOACH VA QUAN LY
NGUON NUdC LUU VUC SONG HONG
TS. TO TRUNG NGHIA', TS. LE HUNG NAM-, ThS. THAI GIA KHANH'
Tdm tdt: Nghien ciiu ling dung md hinh MIKE 11 cac module lien quan da dugc tien hanh de danh gia cac phuong an phat trien ngudn nudc phuc vu yeu edu cap nudc va chdng 10 luu vuc sdng Hdng. Kei qua md phdng da dinh lugng dugc tac ddng tu eac phuong dn phat trien ngudn nudc ddi vdi che do ddng chay kiet, ddng chay 10 he thdng sdng va dua ra khuyen cao giup cho cdng tac quy hoach va qudn ly ngudn nudc. Nghien cuu da de xudt hudng md rdng nghien ciiu ung dung bd md hinh MIKE, ddng thdi cung danh gia ve nhung diem cdn ban che ciia MIKE 11.
I. Gidi thieu chung
Luu vuc sdng Hdng-sdng Thai Binh la mdt trong nhung luu vuc sdng cd lugng nude ddi dao vdi tdng lugng nude hang nam khoang 130 den 140 km^ nude. Hon 90% be mat cua luu vuc cd dia hinh ddi nui, ngudn nudc mat chu yeu phat sinh tu mua do dd khi cd mua mdt lugng nudc ldn tap trung nhanh thanh ddng chay mat gay len 10 ldn tren dien rdng. Cung vi vay mua khd cac sdng sudi thugng ngudn khd han, nhieu vung thieu nudc nghiem trgng anh hudng ldn den boat ddng phat trie'n kinh te, cOng nhu he sinh thai tren luu vuc, dac biet tinh binh thieu nudc ngay cang trd len tram trgng va ed dien bien bat thudng nhu mua khd nam 2004, 2005. Su phat trie'n he thdng eae cdng trinh thuy Igi thugng ngudn cung anh hudng dang ke de'n che do ddng chay mua kiet. Tren dia phan Trung Qude hien sd lieu ve cac cdng trinh hd chua ehua dugc thu thap. C5 ha luu. cdng trinh thuy Igi chii yeu la cdng trinh lay nudc, cdng, tram bom nen dieu quan trgng la luu lugng va muc nude phdi dam bao theo thiei ke cac cdng trinh thi mdi phat huy dugc hei nang luc. Ne'u muc nudc thdp, luu lugng nhd. cdng trinh khdng the boat ddng theo thiei ke va vdi cac cdng trinh gdn bie'n cdn phai chiu tac ddng cua nudc xam nhap man gay thieu ngudn va tac ddng xdu den mdi trudng sinh thai.
Phat trie'n va ling dung md binh toan trong quy hoach va quan ly tdi nguyen nudc ndi chung dugc chu y tap trung phat trien trong sudt bdn thap ky qua. Nghien cuu nay tap trung ling dung md hinh MIKE 11 nghien ciiu bai toan ddng chay kiet vd ddng chay IQ phuc vu quan ly ben vung tdi nguyen nudc luu vuc sdng Hdng-sdng Thai Binh.
2. Phuang phap nghien ciru
So dd he thdng luu vuc sdng Hdng-sdng Thdi Binh dugc sd hoa tren ca sd anh ve tinh luu vuc sdng Hdng theo he toa do UTM WGS84 vung 48N. Ddu vao md hinh la eac sd lieu ve dac tinh he thdng cung vdi sd lieu ciia ngudn nudc vao ra tren toan he thdng. Dia hinh cac mat edt ngang sdng dugc thu thap tu nhieu ngudn sd lieu do dac khac nhau. Tong sd nhanh sdng sir dung trong md binh la 38 sdng, vdi 33 nbdnh cd sd lieu mat cdt do nam 2000. He thdng bien md hinh gdm cd bien tren sdng Da, Thao, Ld, bien nhap luu khu giua, bien trieu tai 9 cira sdng. Bien lay nudc cho md hinh ddng chay kiet dugc lay theo sd lieu dieu tra tren toan he thdng thang 3-2002 do Vien Quy hoach Thuy Igi dieu tra thu thap.
3. Hieu chinh thdng sd md hinh
Phuang phap thir ddn thdng thudng dugc su dung trong hieu chinh thdng sd. Hieu chinh mo binh dugc tien hanh cho giai doan ddng chay kiet 1—20-3-2002 va tran 10 ldn ngdy 9—28-8-1996. Sd lieu do dac luu lugng, muc nudc tai cac tram tren trong thdi gian nay dugc sir dung de' hieu chinh md hinh kiet va md hinh 10. Ddu tien trong qua trinh hieu chinh la xem xet viec can bdng tdng lugng giua thuc do va tinh toan, tiep theo cua viec hieu chinh md hinh Id hieu chinh muc nude. Do gidi ban do ddi ndi dung bdi viei nen chi mdt sd kei qua md phdng hieu chinh dugc trinh bay trong Hinh 1, 2.
Nhin chung tren toan be thdng, kei qua md phdng the hien dugc xu the' bien doi eiia ca dac trung luu lugng vd muc nudc giai doan ddng chay kiet. Dac biet tai eac tram khdng che phia thugng luu nhu Ha Ndi, Thugng Cat phia sdng Hdng vd phia sdng Thai Binh la Cat Khe va Ben Binh, kei qua md phdng the bien dugc hdu hei eae bien ddi cua so lieu thuc do cd ve luu lugng va muc nude. Tuy vay tai mdt sd vi tri kei qua md phdng hien ehua tdt, ehua the hien dugc hei eac bien ddi cua ehudi sd lieu thuc do. Dac biet la d tram Dgc Bd tren luu vuc sdng Day, day cung la tram chiu dnh hudng ciia ddng ehdy hai sdng, sdng Day vd sdng Hdng, ddng thdi cung la khu vuc chiu anh hudng eiia tdc ddng cua hai che do thuy trieu kha khac biet tu cua sdng Day va cira sdng Hdng. Nhin chung bd thdng sd da md phdng khd tdt bien ddi ciia dac trung muc nudc va luu lugng tren hdu hei cac nhanh sdng-tai eac vi tri ed sd lieu do dac. Do vay viec sir dung bd sd lieu cho cac bude tinh phuong an tiep theo la hoan toan ed the chap nhan dugc.
[meter]
3 4 0 3 20
Q - Ha Noi - T h u o n g C a t
11-3-2002 16-3-2002
H - Ha Noi - T h u o n g C a t
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6-3-2002 1 1-3-2002 16-3-2002
Hinh I. Ket qua hieu chinh ddng chay kiet 3-2002 tai tram Ha Ndi (sdng Hdng), Thugng Cat (sdng Dudng), net manh=tinh toan, net dam=thuc do.
H - S o n T a y - Ha Noi - T h u o n g C a t
1 4 - 8 - 1 9 9 6 19-8-1996 2 4 - 8 - 1 9 9 6 2 9 - 8 - 1 9 9 6
Hinh 2. Ket qua hieu chinh muc nudc IQ 8-1996 tai tram Son Tay, Ha Ndi (sdng Hdng), va Thugng Cat (sdng Dudng), net manh=tinh toan, net dam=thuc do.
Kei qua hieu chinh tran 10 thang 8-1996 la tran 10 kha ldn trong dd cd su kei hgp giua 10 ldn tu thugng nguon dd ve kei hgp \di thuy trieu len cao tu phia dudi ha luu do anh hudng cua bao tdi cap 11 d vung ven bie'n Bdc Bd. Luu lugng ldn nhai do dac dugc tai Son Tav la 22030m Vs. Truimg hcrp hd Hoa Binh khong van hanh thi luu lugng ldn nhdt tai Son Tay sc vao khoang 27200 mVs.
Kei qua md phdng luu lugng tai hai tram Ha Ndi va Thugng Cat kha lot. Dudng qua trinh luu lugng giua thuc do va tinh loan tai 2 tram nay gdn nhu trung khit. Tdng lugng ddng chay ciia lai ca cac bien phia trCn Son Tay va tdng lugng ddng chay tai Ha Ndi -(- Thugng Cat la xap ,\i nhu nhau.
Ngoai viec so sanh ve luu lugng. muc nudc thuc do vd tinh toan tai 24 tram trong he thdng sdng Hdng cung dugc danh gia. Nhin chung, kei qua thu dugc khd tdt.
4. Tinh toan phuong an
Md hinh ddng ehdy kiet: Phuong an tinh toan dugc xay dung khi xem xet to hgp cac trudng hgp gia tang yeu edu dung nude vdi khd nang bd sung dung tich dieu tiet ciia he thdng ho chiia cung vdi thay ddi trong lugng nude den tren todn he thdng ling vdi tan suat dam bao 85%.
Lugng dung nudc dugc tinh toan dua tren sd lieu dieu tra dung nudc nam 2002 vdi tdc do gia tang d cdc nam 2010, 2020 va 2040 lay theo ty le gia tang xac dinh trong nghien cun Tong quan sir dung ngudn nudc luu vuc sdng Hdng-sdng Thai Binh. Yeu edu nudc cho sinh boat va cdng nghiep tren todn he thdng ude doan bdng 15% tdng lugng nude dung ed xem xet den lugng nudc tai sir dung d cdc nam 2010, 2020 vd 2040 tuong ung la 7,5%, 10% va 12,5%. Ngudn nudc bd sung trong tuong lai chu yeu lay tu he thdng hd chira cdp nudc tren luu vuc sdng Hdng-sdng Thai Binh, nhu Tuyen Quang. Bdc Me, Son La, Thac Lai, Nam Nbun, Nam Pd, Ke Giao, Pa Ha, Hugi Quang. Ban Trae (Bang 1).
Bang I. Phuong an dung tich dieu tiet bo sung
2010
Ndm Phuang dn Dung tich bd sung (Ty m^) Liai lugng dieu tiei (Ty m^)
PA20I0-1 I 900 PA2010-11 4 1000 PA2020-1 7 1100 2020 PA2020-II 10 1200
PA2020-III 13 1300 PA2040T 7 1100 2040 PA2040-11 10 1200
PA2040-III 13 1300
Bang 2. Ket qua tinh phuong an tai tram Ha Noi
Due Iritng
Hmax (m) Hmin (m)
Have (m) H.std (m) Qinax (mVs)
Qmin (mVs) Qave (m'/s)
Qstd(mVs)
Hien trang 3,07 2,77 2,88 0,09 1110
986
1033 37,53
2010 I 3.08 2,87 2,98 0,06 1121 1038 1079 24,72
2010 II 3,24 3,04 3,14 0,06 1188 1107 1147 24.58
Ph 2020
I 3,35 3,15 3,26 0,06 1245 1159 1203 26,61
uang dn 2020
II 3,50 3.31 3,41 0,06 1312 1227 1270 27,23
2020 III 3,65 3,44 3,56 0,06 1380 1289 1337 28,05
2040 I 3,31 3,09 3,21 0,07 1235 1142 1191 28,58
2040 II 3,47 3,25 3,37 0,07 1302 1210 1258 29,11
2040 III 3,61 3,40 3.52 0,07 1370 1276 1325 29,88
Tai tram Hd Ndi, cac phuang an bd sung ngudn nudc cac nam 2010, 2020 va 2040 deu gdp phan lam tang muc nudc so vdi hien trang (Bang 2). Tai tram Ha Ndi, kei qud tinh todn cdc phuong an cQng cho thay cang ve sau, khi dung tich dieu tiei bd sung tang, se gdp phdn dieu boa cac bie'n ddi bat thudng eiia ddng chay. Dinh va ehan ddng chay deu ed dang thoai hon so vdi hien trang. Nhin chung dnh hudng cua cac phuong an bd sung ngudn nudc len dac trung luu lugng tuong tu vdi dac trung muc nudc nhung cd phan rd net hon. Phuong an bd sung dung tich dam bdo yeu edu luu lugng ddng chay cho giao thdng thuy (600 mVs den 700 mVs), ddng chay duy tri sdng cho ha du (672 mVs), yeu edu cho tudi ddng lire (muc nudc tai Ha Ndi phai dat tren 2,5 m). Tuy vay yeu edu cho tudi tu chay (muc nudc Ha Ndi Id 3,0m) ddi khi cdn bi vi pham.
Ddi vdi ddng chay 10: Tren co sd md hinh thuy lire 10 sdng Hdng - sdng Thai Binh tinh toan kiem tra hieu qua cdt 10 cua cac hd chiia thugng ngudn va cdng trinh phan cham 10. Ldy tieu chudn tran 10 lieh sir thang 8 nam 1971, tuong irng vdi tdn sudt 0,8% tai Son Tay, cd luu lugng dinh 10 tai Son Tay la 37.800m7s. Chgn dang 10 nam 1996 la nam cd dang lu bdt Igi tren sdng Da de tinh todn. Hien tai cd 2 hd chira ldn ndm d thugng du, tham gia dieu tiei 10 cho vung ddng bdng sdng Hdng. Dd la hd chira Hod Binh tren sdng Da vdi dung tich phdng 10 la 4,9 ty m\
Hd Thac Bd tren sdng Chay vdi dung tich phdng 10 450 trieu m\ Nhu vay hd Hod Binh giu vai trd quyei dinh va chii dao cho viec dieu tiei 10 d ha du. Cac trudng hgp dugc dua vao de tinh todn trong bao cao nay tap trung danh gia kha nang cdt 10 cua hd chiia Hod Binh va khd nang phan 10 cua sdng Day, trudng hgp dugc dua vao tinh toan nhu sau: (i) PAl: Khdng cd hd Hod Binh, khdng phan 10 sdng Day, (ii) PA2: Cd hd Hod Binh eat 10, khdng phan 10 sdng Day, (iii) PA3: Khdng ed hd Hoa Binh, phan 10 sdng Day. Hd Son La va Tuyen Quang chua dugc xem xet trong nghien ciru nay. Bien tren la quy md tran 10 nam 1971 vdi dang 10 nam 1996 vdi luu lugng thiei ke tai Son Tay la 37.800mVs. Bien dudi la muc nude trieu ung vdi tdn sudt 5%
(thang 8-1996). De ddnh gia kha nang gay 10 do bao muc nude trieu dugc cdng them 1,5m vao eae ngay 2 va 3 thang 8-1996 la nhung ngay cd muc nudc trieu cao nhat. Kei qua tinh toan cac phuang an cho thay kha nang cdt lu cho Ha Ndi ung vdi 10 nam 1971 cua hd Hoa Binh la 2,10m, khd nang edt IQ cho Ha Ndi cua he thdng phan 10 sdng Day la 0,65m (Bang 3).
Bang 3. Ket qua tinh toan cac phuong an
Phuong dn
PAl PA2 PA 3
5. Ket luan
Son Tdy Qniax 37 641 24 945 38 011
Hmax 17,37 15,61 17,35
Hd Ngi
Oinax Hmax 26 300 14,95 17 428 12,85 24 400 14,4
Thugng Qmax 10 383
7 185 9 156
Cdt Hmax
15,11 12,89 14,48
Hung Yen Hmax
9,9 8,24 9,44
Nghien ciiu da dinh lugng hieu qua cua cac phuang an phdt trien ngudn nudc den cac dac trung (i) muc nude vd (ii) luu lugng tren toan he thdng sdng Hdng-sdng Thai Binh dap ung nhu eau dung nudc ngdy cdng tang eOng nhu cdc phuang an chdng 10 phuc vu boat ddng phat trie'n
kinh te - xa hdi vung nghien cim. Kei qua tinh todn cho thay hdu hei cde phuang an dua vao xem xet ddm bao dap ung nhu cau dung nudc cho cac giai doan phdt trien 2010, 2020 va 2040. Tuy vay kei qua tinh toan muc nudc va luu lugng tai Ha Ndi cho thay cac phuong an bo sung dung tich dieu tiei nudc cQng chi "vua du" dap ling yeu cau cua tuong lai, vi vay cde bien phap phi cdng trinh can dugc dac biet chii y trong thdi gian tdi trong tinh binh kha nang phdt trien he thdng bd chira thugng luu ngay cang khd khan. Cac phuang an tinh toan dugc dua ra nhdm danh gia lai kha nang cdt 10 ciia hd chua Hod Binh va he thdng phan 10 sdng Day. Ket qud cho thay rdng hd ehua Hod Binh ddng mdt vai trd hei siic quan trgng trong viec chd'ng IQ cho ddng bdng sdng Hdng. Qua nghien cuu, nhin chung kei qua hieu chinh md hinh cho vung ha luu sdng Thai Binh tdt hon so vdi vung ha luu phia sdng Hdng, sdng Day cho ca hai md hinh ddng chay kiet va 10.
Qua nghien ciiu, md hinh MIKE 11 da the hien nhieu tinh nang uu viet nhu: (i) cd tinh ddng bd cao the hien qua viec kei ndi vdi cac md hinh thanh phdn khdc eiia MIKE cQng nhu eac ung dung lien quan, (ii) he thdng file sd lieu dugc td chuc ed tinh khoa hgc cao, tien Igi khi giai quyei nbOng bai toan ldn, phuc tap, (iii) do dn dinh cao trong tinh todn vdi he thdng ma bao I5i chi tiei thuan tien cho ngudi sii' dung. Tuy vay mdt so diem cdn tiep tuc dugc cai tien them nhu:
(i) cdn cai tien he thdng giao dien MIKE theo hudng don gian va than thien vdi ngudi sir dung hon nua, (ii) cdn chi tiei hon nua ndi dung hudng ddn thiei lap/van hdnh he thdng cdng trinh tren sdng.
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO
[1] DHI Water & Environment: MIKE II-A Modelling System for Rivers and Channels.
Reference Manual, 2000.
[2] Vien Quy hoach Thuy Igi: Bdo cao chuyen de tinh todn thuy luc mua 10 he thdng sdng Hdng-sdng Thai Binh-Du an Quy hoach phdng chd'ng 10 ddng bdng sdng Hdng, 1999.
[3] Vien Quy hoach Thuy Igi: Quy hoach phdng chd'ng 10 ddng bdng sdng Hdng, 1999.
[4] Vien Quy hoach Thuy loi: Tdng quan su' dung ngudn nudc luu vuc sdng Hdng-sdng Thai Binh, 2001.
Summary
An attempt had been made to examine different water resources development alternatives on water use and flood control management for Red river basin by using DHI - hydrodynamic mathematical commercial software - MIKE 11 model. Analysis of results quantified the impact of development alternatives on flow pattern in flood season and dry season, which is helpful for the formulation of water resources management strategy of Red river basin. Research also pointed out further research topics relating to application of MIKE 11 and MIKE. Discussion on strength/weakness of MIKE 11 commercial software was provided.
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