KINHTE V i M d
Quan diem khoa hoc ve su thoat day
NGUYEN NGOC THACH
r
rong thM gian viUi qua, cdc phi/ifng tien tkdng tin dgi chung chuyen tai thdng tin lac quart vi sU kien "da thodt day " cua nin kinh ti'Viet Nam. Tuy nhien, bat viet nay ph&n dnh quan diem cho rang, ke't luan ve "thodt day" cua nin kinh tecdn duac dyCa trenphdn tich so sdnh diiukien chophdt trien kinh te- xa hoigiUa nam tn/dc "day" vd nam sau "day", tjie Id toe do phdt triin trong cdc linh vilc kinh te- xd hoi then chat. Bo la linh viCc sdn xuat, tdng cdu hang hoa vd dich vu, dac^ biet, tong ddu tU xd hoi, litu thdng hdng hoa, xd hoi, tdi chinh cdng, ngodi ra, trien vongphdt trien cua nin kinh tethi'gidi vd cdc ddi tdc thUcfng mat Idn cua Viet Nam.1. Q u a n d i s W v e "thoat day"
Ng^y nay, 86" dong cac n h a kinh te tren the gi6i d^u cong n h a n khung hoang kinh te la hien tifdng kh6ng the t r a n h khoi va chu k;^
kinh tg' la quy luat ta't yd'u trong qua t n n h phat trien cua nin kinh te thi tntdng. Nhieu each luan giai nguyen n h a n dan den su ton tai khach quan cua chu k^ kinh te trong he thong kinh te thi tnfcing. Tuy nhien, quan diem kinh tg" chinh tri to r a thuyd't phuc nha't ma theo do, sU m a u thulin giiSa lao dpng ca the vk lao dong xa hoi dac trUng cho n i n san xu^t hang hoa ddn gian la k h a nang cd ban xay r a khiing hoang. Vah d$ la cac n h a san xuat tU nhan lam ra hang h6a ma khong lUdng trUdc dUdc nhu cau xa hoi vi chiing. Do vay, tinh trang hang hoa difdc san xuat qua nhieu so v6i cau doi vdi chiing la hoan toan c6 the xay ra. Ben canh do, do lao dpng di(dc xa hoi hoa cao, phan cong lao dSng xa hoi phat trien manh. H^ qua la moi qu£in he l i n n h a u gixJa cac nganh kinh te cang trd nen chat che va cac qua trinh san xua't riSng le hdp t h a n h mot qua t i i n h san xuat xa hoi. Chinh vi vfty, khi mot m a t xich nao do bi pha v3 thi viec do lap ttic tac dong tdi toan bo nen kinh te.
Tuy nhien, cac n h a kinh te hien nay v i n chua CO quan diem thong nha't ve nguyen nhan cua khung hoang kinh te. Tru6c day, quan diem q u y l t dinh dong vai tro quan trong trong nghien ctiu chu k^ kinh te, nhOng ngay nay, cac n h a nghien cC(u nghieng ve phfa each tiep can ngftu nhien. Theo each tigp can nay.
nguyen n h a n gay nen chu ky kinh te mang tinh n g l u nhign. Cho du xuiLt phat tii nguyen n h a n nao, khung hoang kinh te luon lu6n la mot pha ca'u t h a n h cua chu ky kinh te ma phai trai qua nhiing thtJi ky thu hep va mS rong, cac diem dinh va day. Nhflng nha kinh te thuoc cac thbi dai each xa nhau tvf Mac d§'n Samuelson c6 nhGng goc nhin khac nhau ve ca'u true cua chu ky kinh te. Quan di^m ve dinh va day nhu hai pha cua ehu k^ dUdc nhSh manh bcii Haberler (1958). Theo ong, chu k^
kinh te bao gom 4 pha - tang trUcing, diem dinh, suy giam va diem day. Cac diem dinh va day con dUde gpi la nhiJng diem ngoat. Nen kinh te thoat day sau khi di qua diem day cua chu ky. Hai nha nghien ciiu ehu ky kinh doanh noi tieng Burns va Mitchell (1946) xem chi so' hoat dong kinh t e l a chi tieu khai quat nha't de xac dinh nhiJng diem dinh va day, cac pha cua chu ky nen dUa tren do. Theo ho, GDP thUe la chi so' dai dien nha't cho hoat dong kinh te chung.
Ngay nay, dinh va day cua chu ky kinh te dUdc nghien cCfu, quan sat va ghi ehep thUdng xuyen b6i Cd quan nghien ciiu kinh te quoc gia cua My (NBER). Quan sat chu ky kinh doanh mdi nha't cua My, cd quan nay nhan dinh: "Suy giam la thcJi ky hoat dong kinh te di xuo'ng bao trum toan bo nen kinh te, keo dai nhieu hdn vai thang, the hien ro ci GDP thue, t h u n h a p Nguyen Ngoc Thach, TSKH., Trucmg dai hoc Ngfln h&ngTP. H6Chi Minh.
thUc, viec lam, san xu^t cong nghiep, cac chi so ban si va le. Day danh d§Ai sii ket thiic cua p h a suy giam va sU bat d^u cua p h a t a n g t r u S i ^ cua chu 1 ^ kinh te.. .Uy b a n quyet dinh rSng, day xay r a vao quy hai ciia n a m 2009 khi miic GDP va GDI binh quan quy dat difdc diem tha'p nh^Lt cua chung" (NBER, 2014). N h u vay, day chu ^ kinh te la thang m a gia tri GDP va GDI thUc dat miic tha'p nhtft. PhUdng phap xac dinh day cua to chiic nay la phan tich so s a n h day so' dpng thai cua san hlCng thUc ciing v6i mot so'chi so* khac. Theo 16 gic tif duy pho bien n h u vay, thoat day nghia la GDP thUc tang cao hdn trong cac thang tiep theo so vdi GDP cua
"thang day". Di nhiSn, day khong phai la chi so' duy nha't. Cac chi so' dong chu ky nhU san litdng cong nghiep, viec lam, tieu dung... dUde xem x6t d6ng thtfi ciing phai c6 xu hudng tUdng tU. Uy ban ghi chep chu ky kinh doanh cua NBER nhom hop khi cac t h a n h vien cua no n h a n dinh diem ngoat c6 the se xay ra. P h a n tich cac s6' li§u kinh t§' vi mo khac nhau, uy ban nay xac dinh diem dinh hoSc day se dat dudc hay khong va neu dUdc thi vao thang nao.
Day la quan diSm khong chi cua rieng to chtfc nay ma ciia hdu het nhiing to chiic va n h a nghien eiiu hien nay tren the gi6i.
Chinh vi t a t ca chu ky kinh te deu eo cac (Enh digm va day, giai doan m6 rpng va t h u hep, Lukas (1977) chi r a quy luat chung ciia chiing: du tuyet nhien khong ton tai cac nguyen nhan ed ban de dU bao dieu do, nhiing sii kien d i n den ket luan rang, do tinh cha't t h a y doi cung chieu cua cac chi so' k i n h te, t a t ca chu ky k i n h doanh gio'ng n h a u . . . . Ket
l u a n cua 6ng ve quy l u a t c h u i ^ cua cac chu ^ kinh doanh diia t r e n chieu hudng thay dm dong ho cua nhieu bien s6 kinh te^ quan tror^.
N h u vay, "thoat day" trong each hieu cua 6i^
la sii t h a y doi chilu cua cac bien so kinh t^, Co 2 tinh ch^t thay ddi cua cac bien s^kinh te. Cac bi§n s6 dong chu ky va i^hich chu ^ c6 xu hiidng thay doi cung va ngUdc chieu v6i cH so chu ky kinh te (hoat dong kinh te). NhiJi^
bien so' dan tnf6c, t r i va d6ng h a n h c6 di^m ngoat xay ra trUdc, sau va d6ng thcli vdi dilm ngoat cua chu ky kinh te. Cac bi§'n sfl' d6ng chu ky gan lien vdi san xuat, chi tieu, viec lam, nang suat, lildng thUc, cung tien, gia cd phieii, lai suat danh nghia. Ddu t u cua ho gia dinh, hkag ton kho, nang suai lao dong, cung tien, gia c^
phieu va lai sua't danh nghia la cac bi^'n dSn tru6c trong khi tieu dung, ddu t u cua doanh nghiep, viec lam dong h a n h v6i chi so chu ^ .
Uy b a n Giam sat tai chinh qudc gia (UBGSTCQG) Viet Nam cung giii quan diim n h u tr§n vi day va thoat day. Trong ban B4o cao tinh hinh kinh te quy I va dU bao ca nam 2014, cd quan nay n h a n dinh: kinh te (Vi§t Nam) da thoat day tii quy III n a m 2013 vk dang trcf lai quy dao t a n g tru6ng. Nhan dinh nay se lam ed scf cho cac Bao cao tdng k^t cudi n a m cua nhiing cd quan nha niidc. Dang chii '$
la CO mot sU khac biet trong lUa ehpn chi ti§u tdng quat de n h a n dinh ve "su thoat day" gifla UBGSTCQG va NBER. NBER lay gia tri tuy§t ddi cua GDP thiic, con UBGSTCQG chpn toe do tang tniclng kinh te. Chi tieu chinh m&
UBGSTCQG sik dung la tang trudng GDP qu^
dUdc loai bo yd'u to' thdi vu (hinh 1).
HINH 1: T a n g trrfofng GDP (da loai b o y e u t o m i i a vu) h a n g q u y 2010-2014, % t a n g so cung ky
6.5 6.0 5.3 5.0 4.5
— f - ^ (—1 - r r — e - ^ r ^ •"*• — r-^ < - ^ ••<»• — ( ~ J f^ . « •
O O O ' C O ' O ' O ' O ' O ' O ' O ' O ' O - O - o S '
= (= = Q o es:
Nguon. Uy ban Giam sal tai chinh qu6c gia, 2014.
NghiSn cuu Kinh tis6434 - ThAng 7/2014
Quan diem khoa hoc ,
Ben canh do, m6t so chi s6^ quan trong khac nhu chi sfi'cong nghigp, chi so PMI, xuat n h a p kh^u, cac chi so don bUy tai chinh, k h a nang tra nd, ROA, ROE, cac ty so" t h a n h toan cua khu viic doanh nghiep ciing ditdc uy b a n n a y d\ia vao p h a n tich de cung cd cho n h a n dinh ve
"da thoat day".
Tuy nhien, bSft chSp quan di^m pho bi^n tr§n, tac gia cua bai vi^t nay c6 quan dilm khac ve thoat day. Quan d i l m cua tac gia dua trSn 1^ thuyet tai san xu^t m a cho phep phan tich xu hu6ng phat t r i l n cua n^n kinh te sau hdn so v6i quan diem t a n g tniSng kinh te. Ly thuyet tai san xu^t la san phdm cua trUdng phai CO dien, trong do c6 tU tifctng Mac - xit.
Theo ly thuyet nay, qua trinh tai san xua't xa hfii bao trijm khong chi nhiing thay ddi trong san x u a i tong san phSm xa h6i ma con cac chuyen bien trong tai san xua^t luc ludng lao d6ng, n h i i r ^ quan h§ san xuS^t va dae biet, cac dieu kien cho phat trien kinh te - xa hoi. Trong khi do, du6i goc dp tSng tnicing kinh te, qua trinh ph^t tri^n difdc xem x^t chii yeu ci khia canh dinh lUdng. Nhif vay, dua trgn quan di^m t&i san xua't, "da thoat day" ein dUde hi^u rong hdn la chi dtla vao sU phan tich cac miic dp hen ke cua mot hoac m6t so' chi so^ phat trien trong day dfing thai. Trong nghia rpng, khi noi den
"da thoat day", chiing t a e i n xem xet miie dp khoi phuc cac di^u kien cho phat trien kinh te - xa hoi ma n^n kinh td dat ditdc trong thcfi ky trUdc khi nen kinh te ha xudng day, cu the la nam tntdc khi nen kinh te rdi vao pha suy thoai ma keo dai trong nhiing n a m tiep theo.
Cac dieu ki§n cho phat trien kinh te - xa hoi dUdc hieu d day la tdc do tang tnicing trong cac linh viic kinh te - xa hoi quan trong. Nhiing Enh viic quan trong theo tac gia la: (i) nhom yeu to noi sinh bao gom tang truSng cung hang hoa va dich vu, cdu hang hoa va dich vu, dau tii, linh viic lUu thong, linh viic xa hoi, tai chinh c6ng; (ii) nhom yeu td ngoai sinh chu yeu tang t n i d n g kinh td t h d gidi, cac khu vUc va ddi tac thUdng mai chinh cua Vi§t Nam. N h u vay,
"da thoat day" \k khoi phuc dUdc cac di^u kien cho phat trien kinh te - xa h6i cua nam trUdc khi ndn kinh te ha canh.
2. N a m 2013, n ^ n k i n h t e Viet N a m d a t h o a t d a y ?
De dUa r a cau t r a Icii c6 cd s3 khoa hpc cho cSu hoi trong tieu de cua muc nay, chiing ta chpn 2008 lam n a m goc de so sanh. Nam 2008 la nam trUdc khi nen kinh td Vi$t Nam h a xuong day (day dau ti§n la nam 2009), con 2013 la nam dUdc gia dinh nen kinh te chiing ta da thoat day (day thxl hai la nam 2012) (hinh 2). Hinh t h a i dac t h u ciia day trong chu ky kinh td lii$n tai cua nhieu nUde, trong do, cd Viet Nam la. chU W. Khung hoang kinh td thd gidi biing nd tCf quy i n nam 2008 va tac dong sau rong tdi h a u het cac nen kinh te quoc gia trong nam 2009. Tang trudng kinh te Viet Nam giam xudng con 5,32% va cac chi sd quan trong khac cung cd xu hudng sut giam manh nha't ve tdc do phat trien trong nam nay. NhU vay, 2008 cd the dUdc xem la nam trUdc day.
Nam 2012, ndn kinh te Viet Nam dat day mdi va tang trudng kinh td giam xudng 5,03%. Do vay, 2013 la nam sau day. Theo nhan dinh cua UBGSTCQG thi ndn kinh te Vi6t Nam da thoat day tii nSm 2013. Nhung neu h i l u cum tii "da thoat day" theo quan diem cua tac gia thi can phan tich xem vao nam 2013, chiing ta da khoi phuc dUdc cac dieu kien cho phat trien kinh td - xa hoi ciia nam 2008 hay chua? NhU vay, viec phan tich so sanh nhiing so beu thong ke chinh thiic cua 2 nam nay do Tong cue Tho'ng ke cong bo' trong cac Nien giam thong ke nam 2008, 2009, Nien giam thong ke tdm t a t 2013 va mue Tinh hinh kinh td - xa hoi nam 2008, 2013 cho chiing ta mot biie tranh dich thiic dudi day.
HINH 2: H i n h t h a i d a y c u a c h u k y k i n h t e V i e t N a m h i e n t a i
9 8 7 6
- :
3 2 0
8,46
^
\ 6 , 3 1
.««
5,32
^
6,78
. 1 0
^ , 8 9
Q^dAcCi
zoii 5,03 addy
1012 5,42
»,.
NguSn: T6ng cue Thdng kft.
Ngh>4n cOu Kinh t4s6434 • Thing 7/2014
Trong Enh vUc tang trudng kinh te cua n a m 2013, tdng san p h ^ trong nude tang 5,42% so vdi n a m 2012. Trong do, ndng, lam nghiep va thuy san tang 2,67%, cong nghiep va xay dilng - 5,43% va dich vu - 6,56%. Trong khoi nganh cong nghiep va xay dUng, cong nghiSp tang trudng 5,35%, trong do, cong nghiep che bien, che tao tang 7,44%. Con xay dUng tang 5,83%.
Ve kh6i i ^ a n h dich vu, b a n buon va b a n le tang 6,52%, dich vu lUu t r u va an u d i ^ - 9,91% va tai chinh, ngan hang, bao hiem - 6,89%. Hau het cac chi s d n e u tr§n cua n a m 2013 cao hdn so
BANG 1: S o s a n h c a c c h i t i e u
vdi nam 2012 nhitng vdn thiCp hdn va tham chi th£p hdn nhidu so vdi n a m 2008. T a i ^ tn^ta%
kinh t e nam 2008, mac dii giam hdn 2 diem phan t r a m so vdi nam 2007 do tii quy 3, nin kinh t e nudc t a da bat dau chiu anh huctt^ nang ne bcti khung hoang tai chinh - kinh te My, vka dat 6,31%. Tang truSng dat dUdc cao hdn n h i ^ tren 7% tfif n a m 2002 den 2007. Nam 2008, nong, lam nghiep va thuy san t a n g 4,7%, coi^
nghiep va xay dung - 5,98%, dich vu - 7,37%.
Rieng cong ngjiiep t a n g 13,9%, t r o i ^ do, c6ng nghidp chdbien, che tao - 15,3%.
k i n h t e - x a h o i q u a n t r o n g Chi tieu
Tang trudng kinh t€ (%)
Tang trudng c6ng ngiliep - xay dung (%) Tang trucmg n6ng, ISm nghifep, tliuy san (%) Tang tiu6ng dicii vu (%)
Tang tru6ng c6ng ngliiep cliff bi^n, cli^ tao (%) Tang trucmg tieu dilng cu6i cilng (%) Tang trucmg ticli IQy tai san (%) Tang tru6ng xu^t Idiiu liang lioa (%) Tang trucmg xuSt Icti^u dicli vu (%)
Tang trudng t6ng miic lling li6a ban le vh doanh thu dich vu tieu dilng (%)
Tang trucmg van tai hanh khach (%) Tang trucmg van tai hang h6a (%) Ty le thift nghiSp (%) GDP thuc binh quan (trieu d6ng)
CMah lech thu nhap thlnh thi/ nong thOn (ISn) Ty le ho ngheo (%)
DSu tu/GDP (%) Tham hut ngan sSch/GDP (%) No cSng/GDP (%)
Chi tieu ngan sach cho giao due - dao tao/GDP {%)
2008 6,31 5,98 4,70 7,37 15,3 9,18 6,28 29,10 8,50 6,50 8,00 8,10 2,90 22,4 trieu d6ng
2,1 14n 13,50 41,30 4,580 43,90 4,28
2013 (irdc tinh)
5,42 5,43 2,64 6,57 7,44 5,36 5,45 15,40 9,10 5,60 5,40 6,30 2,20 28.4 Hieu d6ng
1,3 IJn 9,90 30,40 4,80
>55,40 5,42
Nam 2013 so v6i nam 2008 Thiphcm ThJphon Thlfphon Thifphon ThSphon ThSphon Thaphon Thaphon Caohon ThSphon Thaphon Thaphon Thaphon Caohon ThSphon Thaphon Thaphon Cao hem Caohon Caohon Chii thick: tang trudng so vdi nam tnrdc.
Nguon: Tong cue Thong k6 (2008, 2009, 2013, 2014), IMF (2014).
Theo quy luat, tang trudng cao lam giam ty le tha't nghiep, con ngUpc lai, tang trUcing tha'p lam tang so' ngUdi t h a t nghiep. Tuy nhien, so sanh sd lieu cua 2 n a m 2008, 2013, chiing ta n h a n r a sU nghich ly. Nam 2013, tang trUcing kinh te bang 5,42% tUOng Ung vdi ty 1§ t h a t nghiep chung 2,2%, tha't nghiep t h a n h thi - 3,58%, ty le thieu viec lam - 2,77%. Cac chi tieu ve viec lam ciia n a m nay tham chi eon tot hon so vdi n a m 2008, n a m cd
t a n g trudng kinh te cao hdn. TUc la, nam 2013, t a n g trudng t h a p hdn di kem vdi ty 1§
tha't nghiep tha'p hdn. Ro rang, hien tUdng trai quy luat nay buoc cac n h a thdng ke nUdc ta xem xet lai phUdng p h a p luan cua minh.
Ngoai ra, de ly giai v a n dd "bi ^n" tren, c&i tim hieu k h u viic kinh te phi chinh thiic. Qua thUe, lao dpng trong k h u vUc nay chiem ty \k cao trong lUc lUdng lao ddng dang lam vi§c (g^n 35%).
6 Nghien CIHJ Kinh tffs6434 - ThAng 7/2014
Quan i\im khoa hoc ,
Mot xu hudng dang lo ngai trong ndn kinh te Vi§t N a m hien n a y la tinh t r a n g "hen ri vdn n h a n lUc" khi s d ngUdi tha't nghifip cd trinh dp dai hoc va t r e n dai hoc chiem ty trong cao trong dfii q u a n t h a t nghiSp. Do la hi§n tUdng khi ngUdi lao dpng bi mSit di ph^n nao ky nang cua minh trong thdi gian thSt nghiSp.
Theo Ban tin cap n h a t thi trUdng lao dong Viet Nam sd 1, quy 1 n a m 2014 do B6 Lao dpng, thUdng binh va xa hoi (2014) cdng bd tin n a m 2013, xu hudng lao dong thaft nghi$p c6 trinh dp chuy§n mon I ^ t h u a t tSng. Cu the, nhom cao dang nghe chidm 7,65%, cao dang — 6,74%, dai hoc va tr^n dai hpc - 4,25%. Day khong chi la su b a i can ddi giiia cd ca'u nganh nghe va cd c l u dao tao m a con giiia t n n h do phat tridn kinh td - xa hoi dat dUdc va trtnh dQ vdn n h a n liic phu hdp vdi trinh dd phat tridn dd. HS qua la sU lang phi Idn trong dao tao va sii dung ngudn n h a n lUc ma cac n h a khoa hpc gpi la
"vdn n h a n lUc ao", tUc la quy md dao tao vdn nhan lUc cao di trUdc trtnh dd phat tridn kinh td - xa hdi, Nguygn n h a n khdng chi d cdng tac dii b^o n h u c^u vd sd lUdng va cd ca'u lao dpng ma cdn la va'n dd thd chd va cha't lUdng dao tao. Cac va'n de thd chd d day la sU can thiep qua sau cua Nha nUdc vao ndn kinh t e va khu vUc nha nUdc cong kenh, cha't lUdng tha'p trong khi ti§u chi d a n h gia cdng lao cua ngudi lao ddng chua khuyen khich trong dung n h a n tai, thien vd t r u n g t h a n h tU tudng va ea'p tren, mdi trudng lam vi§c cho ngudi tri thiic thieu nhan van va chUa kich thich sang tao, t h u nhap thudng xuyen khdng du de tai tao vd'n nhan luc (Nguyen Ngoc Thach, 2014). Ngoai ra, chiing t a chua xay dung dUdc mot khu vUc doanh nghifip ddi mdi p h a t trien m a n h me ma cd the t h u hiit toan bd lUe lUdng lao dpng cha't lUdng cao. NhU vay, mot dieu kien quan trpng d l tich luy va st( dung hi#u qua vd'n n h a n lUc la kha nSng chuydn hoa vd'n n h a n lUc t h a n h thu nhSp cao nhUng didu kien nay chUa dupe hinh t h a n h tai nUdc ta. Vi vay, mot nghich ly hien nay la lUdng cua mot tien sy lam viec tai Vi6n nghien ciiu hay trudng dai hpc chUa bibig miie lUdng cua mot cd thU ky trong mot cdng ty t u nhan.
Khung hoang kinh t e tCf nam 2008 den nay da tac d d i ^ dang ke tdi t h u nhap cua ngUdi dan tren khap the gidi. San xuat (Bnh tre, t h a i nghiep t a n g va gia tri tai san giam khien thu nhap cua ngudi dan giam siit. Dieu kien dac thii cua nen kinh t e Viet Nam trong thdi ky khung h o a i ^ kinh t e thd gidi hien tai la san xulit dinh ddn di kdm vdi lam phat cao. Tong cue Thdng ke chi cdng bd sd lieu ve t h u nhap danh nghia cua ngUdi lao dong, tao cho nhflng ai cd ao giac tien td mot aii tUdng rang, phiic Idi cua ngUdi dan van tang manh trong nhiing n a m qua. Tuy nhien, de n h a n ra gia tri thUc cua cac chi sd danh nghia, ngUdi doc c ^ cd nhfing kien thUc thdng ke nh^t dinh.
Theo sd heu mdi nhlit do IMF (2014) cdng bd, GDP thiie binh quan cua Viet Nam tang tU 22,4 trieu ddng nam 2008 len tdi 28,4 trieu ddng nam 2013, ttic la tang 25,5%. Nghien ciiu thUc nghidm cho tha'y GDP binh quan cao hdn thu nhap binh quan. De nhan dUde thu nhap binh quan, phai loai bd khoi GDP cac yeu td nhu thang du san xuat, thud san xua't va kha'u hao tai san nhUng bo sung thu nhap tix sd hiiu va chuyen nhupng Men hanh. Hidn nay, chUa cd so' heu thdng ke chinh thUc ve thu nhap binh quan 1 thang cua nam 2013. Tuy nhien, neu dUa tren so' lieu trung binh ciia nhiing nam gan day vdi thu nhap binh quan xa'p xi 65% GDP binh quan thi thu nhap binh quan 1 thang cua nam 2013 tUdng dUdng 2,157 trieu ddng. Miie thu nhap binh quan thang cua nam 2008 la 995 nghln ddng. Nen so vdi nam 2008, t h u nhap binh quan 1 thang cua nam 2013 tang 116,8 %. Tuy nhien, thu nhap danh nghia khdng phan anh kha nang mua cua dong tien nen phiic Idi cua ngUdi dan can dUde danh gia dUa tren chi tieu thu nhap thiie. Can cii so' lieu ciia IMF (2014) ve he sd dieu chinh GDP Viet Nam, tinh dUdc mUc tang thu nhap thUc khoang 31,59% trong 5 nam qua. Thu nhap thuc binh quan chi phan anh phan nao phiic Idi thiic cua ngudi lao dpng nhung che la'p miic dp phan hda xa hoi ve vat cha't. Chiing ta ban cdn nhd mot cau chuyen nhd cua thdi sinh vien. Dd la 3 anh sinh vien ngdi vdi 3 d banh mi. Anh sinh vien thU nha't an 2 d banh, anh
NghiSn cOu Kinh t4s6434 - Th&ng 7/2014
t h u hai — 1, cdn a n h thU ba khdng a n d b a n h nao. Ndu chung t a nhin vao mUc do t h o i ^ ke binh quan thi mdi a n h sinh vien t r e n an dUdc 1 d b a n h nhUng thUc td^ v I n cd 1 a n h phai nhin ddi. N h u vay, chenh lech tien lUdng giiia cac nhdm dan cU cung phan anh phiic Idi cua ngudi dan. Chenh lech cang tang thi phiic Idi c h u i ^ cang giam. Nam 2008, chenh lech t h u n h a p giUa t h a n h thi va ndng thdn la 2,1 Ian. Tuy Tdng cue Thdng ke chUa cdng bd' so' lieu chinh thUc ve t h u n h a p binh quan, nhUng cd the nhan dinh ve sU phan hda t h u nhap dUa t r e n mUc chenh l§ch tidn lUdng cua nam 2013 vi tidn lUdng chidm ty trpng Idn trong t h u n h a p cua ngUdi dan (Bo Lao ddng, thUdng binh va xa hdi, 2014). Theo so' heu ciia Bd Lao dpng, thUdng binh va xa hoi, chenh lech tien lUdng giUa t h a n h thi va nong thdn n a m 2013 bang 1,3 Ian. Nhu vay, chenh Ideh t h u n h a p ed xu hudng giam. Chenh lech t h u nhap giam cho thay khung hoang kinh td da tac ddng m a n h hdn tdi cac khu vUc kinh te dang phat trien ndng nhu cong nghiep va dd thi nen lam giam mUe dp phan hda vat chat. Va'n de d chd trong khung hoang, mUe tieu dung cac san p h a m nhu yeu va ndng san do lUc lUdng lao ddng tay nghe khdng cao san xua't giam it hdn nhieu so vdi nhOng hang hda lau bdn va xa xi do cac ngUdi lao dpng cd ky nang cao lam ra.
Ben canh do, viec giai quyet va'n de giam ngheo cung cd xu hudng tot hdn. Ty le ho ngheo n a m 2013 la 9,9%, tha'p hdn so vdi miic 13,5% nam 2008. Day la mot trong vai chi tieu xa hoi cao hdn so vdi nam 2008. Mac dii Viet Nam de ra hai chuan ngheo cho cac giai doan 2006 - 2010 (thu nhap dUdi 200.000 - 240.000 ddng/thang) va 2011 - 2015 (thu nhap dudi 400.000 - 500.000 ddng/thang) nhUng neu tinh den trUdt gia thi tieu ehuan danh gia ngheo khdng thay ddi, tUc la cd the so sanh cae mUc dp trong ca thdi ky 2006 - 2015.
Vi sU anh hudng cua khiing hoang kinh te the gidi hien tai tdi nen kinh td Viet Nam ve ban cha't la sde cau khi xua't khau, tieu diing va d^u tu deu giam nen tdng eau cd vai trd quyet dinh ddi vdi sU khdi phuc cac chi tieu tang trUdng kinh te. Tdng cau la mot trong
nhflng dieu kien quan trpng cho phep sit dung hieu qua tiem nang san xuat cua d^t nude, dac biet, trong dieu kien k h u n g hoang kinh te hign tai. Nam 2013, tieu dung c u ^ cung tang 5,36%, tich liiy t a i san - 5,45%, cdn xu^t kha'u h a n g hda va dich vu t a i ^ tUdng Ung 15,4% va 9,1%. Trong khi dd, n a m 2008, tieu dilng Chinh phu va ho gia dinh t a n g Ian lUdt la 7,5 va 8%, cdn tich luy tai san - 4,1%. Chi sdtSng trudng xuKt k h a u hang hda va dich vu tUdng ling 29,1% va 8,5%. Cac s d h d u dUdc trich din cho thay lien quan den hai hang muc chiem ty trong cao cua tong cau la tidu diing cudi ciing va xua't kh^u hang hda, n a m 2013 v l n thua kem nam 2008 (Tdng cue Thdng ke, 2008,2013).
Trong dieu kien thi trUdng tieu thu nUdc ngoai bi t h u hep do sU a n h hudng ti§u ciic tii k h u n g hoang, thi trUdng noi dia trd thanh tac n h a n chinh kich thich san xuat khi cac doanh nghidp bupe phai quay lai "san nha". Tdng mite hang hda ban le va doanh t h u dich vu tieu dung - thude do quan trong ve miic dp tieu thu tren thi trudng ndi dia van chua cho th^y mot trien vpng k h a quan trong n a m 2013. NSm 2013, chi tidu nay chi tang 12,6% va 5,6% vd gia tri danh nghia va thUc. Ve gia tri danh nghia, day la mUc thap nhat trong 4 nam trd lai day.
Cdn ve gia tri thuc, nd cdn thSip hdn miic tang cua nam 2012. Chi tieu nay van chiia phuc hoi dUde cac miic 31% va 6,5% cua nam 2008.
Khi mUc dd boat dpng kinh te tang, hoat dong san xua't va luu thdng hang hda ddu dat sU tang trudng tUdng iing. Dd la cac bien sd ddng ehu ky ma mUc dp tUdng quan cung chidu giiia chiing rat manh. Nganh van ehuydn hanh khach va hang hda t a n g trudng nhguih hdn khi nen kinh te bat d^u giai doan phuc hdi. Sd'li§u thdng ke cho tha'y n a m 2013, van tai hanh khach tang 6,3%, cdn van tai hang hda - 5,4%.
Nhiing chi so cua n a m nay deu thlip hdn so v6i cac mUc ciia n a m 2008. Nam 2008, van tai h a n h khach va hang hda dat ty le tang trUdng tUdng Ung 8,1% va 8%, cao hdn g^n 2 - 3 diem phan tram.
Dau t u la linh vUc quan trpng nhdt ddi vdi tang trudng kinh te tai nUdc ta. Trong ngfin han, dau tU la mot ca'u p h ^ cua tdng ciu. Chi
8 Nghi4n cOu Kinh t€s6434 • Thing 7/201*
Quan il^m khoa hoc .
tieu d^u t u kich thich tSng trUdng trong cac nganh san xuSi h a n g hda t u ban. Cdn dUdi gdc nhin dai han, d^u tU la gdp von cho tUdng lai.
D^u t u tao nang lUc san xuat mdi cho nen kinh te ma vdn la mot yeu td^ san xuat quan trpng n h a i ciia t a n g trudng tai nhiing nUdc dang phat t r i l n n h u Viet N a m hien nay. Theo Bao cao mdi nha't (nam 2010) cua Td chUc nang 8U§Lt Chau A do Trung t a m Nang su^t Viet Nam (2014) dang tai, ddng gdp cua vdn vao tang trUcing kinh td cua nude t a tUdng dUdng 45% so vdi miic ddng gdp 29% ciia lao dpng va 26% cua cai goi la n a n g sua't yeu to tong hdp trong thdi k^ 1970 - 2010. Sdlieu cua Tong cue Thdng kd cho thS^y vdn d i u tU toan xa hdi thUe hidn n a m 2013 cua nUdc t a bang 30,4% GDP va ty Id nay thS^p hdn nhieu so vdi mUc 41,3%
nam 2008. Cd c^u d i u tU ciing thay doi vdi ty trpng cua k h u vUc n h a nUdc tang tijt 28,6% len 40,4% ma bii d^p cho sU giam siit cua vdn d^u tu nUdc ngoai. Ngudn d^u tU nay giam tiX 31,4% xudng cdn 22%, cdn ty trpng cua khu vi^c ngoai n h a nUdc chi giam ddi chut. Khiing hoang kinh td t h d gidi lam suy giam lUdng vdn d^u t u nude ngoai tren toan cdu va trong bdi canh nay, chinh sach tai khoa md rong tai nhidu nude trong dd ed nUde ta lam tang d i u tu cdng ma bu d4p cho sU sut giam ddu tU cua khu vUc t u nhan. Dang chii y la trong nhiing nam trUdc khung hoang, ngudn vd'n dau t u tU nhan va trUc tidp nUdc ngoai tang trudng manh tai nUde ta. Cu thd, d i u tU tU n h a n tang 17,4; 16; 26,9; 13% tUdng iing vdi cac n a m 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008. Tdc dd tang trudng vdn d^u t u nUdc ngoai cdn a'n tUdng hdn, cu the 16,9; 22; 93,4; 34,6%. Tuy nhien, dau t u t u nhan va nUdc ngoai giam m a n h trong thdi ky khung hoang.
So vdi nam 2008, tinh hinh tai chinh cdng cua nam 2013 vfin chUa cd nhieu da'u hieu tot hdn. Nam 2008, t h a m h u t ngan sach nha nUdc la 4,58% GDP, cdn nd cdng theo tieu chi Viet Nam - 43,9% GDP. Mae dii sdUeu nd cdng cua nam 2013 chua dUdc cdng bd chinh thUc nhiing nd cdng cua nam 2012 da d^t miic 55,7% GDP.
Tham h u t ngfin sach nflm 2013 Udc khoang 4,8% GDP. Bd trudng Bo Tai chinh cho biet
t d i ^ du nd cdng n a m 2013 la 1.913 nghin ty ddng, tUdng dUdng 53,4% GDP (Bo Tai chinh, 2013). Thu ngan sach n a m 2013 khdng dat k d hoach de r a trong dieu kien khu vUc doanh nghiep vSn cdn r a t khd khan. Sd doanh nghidp phai giai the hoac i^Caig hoat ddng trong nam nay la 60.737, tang 11,9% so vdi n a m 2012 (Tdng cue Thdng ke, 2013). Tinh hinh khdng k h a quan hdn trong Enh vUc chi ngan sach ma thd hidn d cd caii chi tieu vdi ty trpng chi dau t u phat trien giam tuf khoang 28% nam 2008 xudng cdn 20,4% n a m 2013, trong khi chi thudng xuyen tang len. Ngoai ra, t o i ^ chi ngan sach van cao tdi 27,5% GDP. Vdi GDP binh quan dau ngUdi cua Viet Nam hien nay dudi 3.000 ddla My thi day la ty le tUdng Ung vdi mUe trung binh tren the' gidi. Tuy nhien, xet dudi gdc do dan so', vdi dan so' cua nUdc ta la 90 tridu ngUdi thi ty le nay kha cao so vdi mUc trung binh the gidi (khoang 23-24%) (Illarjonof va cdng sU, 2002). Giiia ty le chi tidu ngan sach/GDP va tang trudng kinh td ton tai mot mdi quan hd phi tuye'n. Khi ty le chi tieu ngan sach/GDP vUdt qua mot ngudng nao dd thi se cd sU tac dpng tieu cUc tdi tang trUdng. NhU vay, vdi xu hUdng chi thudng xuyen tang, chi tieu ngan sach cao cho mot bp may hanh chinh khdng Id, boat dpng dau tU cdng kem hidu qua, khu vUc doanh nghiep nha nUdc cha't lUdng thap dang trd thanh rao can chinh ddi vdi tang trudng kinh te cua Viet Nam hien nay.
Chi ngan sach cho giao due - dao tao cua nUde ta tang qua cac nam ve gia tri danh nghia va thuc. U"dc tinh nam 2013 dat 194.400 ty ddng so vdi 63.547 ty ddng nam 2008, tang 205,92%. Neu lUdt bd sU tang gia thi gia tri thiic cua chi tieu cho giao due - dao tao tang hdn 150% trong 5 nam qua. Rd rang, dd la ket qua dang t r a n trpng cua nhiing nd lUe khdng ngiing tii phia Cbinh phu. He qua la ty le chi tieu cho giao due - dao tao tren GDP nam 2013 dat 5,42% va cao hdn mUe 4,28% nam 2008.
Nhu vay, chi tieu cho giao due - dao tao ndm 2013 vUdt nam 2008 ve gia tri thUc va ty le tren GDP. Tuy nhien, hieu qua chi tieu x6t dudi gdc dp phuc vu su nghiep phat trien kinh te - xa hdi cdn mot khoang each xa de cd the
Nghien ciiu Kinh (gs6434 - Thing 7/2014 9
dap ling dUdc sU k^ vpng cua xa hdi trong k h i 'Von n h a n lUe ao" nhU da de cap d t r e n dang trd t h a n h mot hidn tUdng kinh t e - xa hdi day quan ngai.
Didu kien kinh t d - xa hdi bdn ngoai vKt quan trpng cho phdp khdi phuc nhiing dieu kien cho p h a t trien kinh t d - xa hdi trong nUdc trong bdi canh toan cdu hda kinh td. Do dp md thUdng mai cao, ndn kinh te nUdc ta riit d l tdn thUdng trUdc nhflng bien ddng trong nen kinh te t h e gidi. Chinh vi vay, su thay ddi cac dieu kidn kinh te ben ngoai ed a n h hudng quydib dinh tdi cue dien kinh te chting ta. Theo so lieu trong bao cao cua IMF (2014), tang trudng kinh t d n a m 2013 cua tSit ca khu vUc t r e n t h e gidi ddu chiia trd lai mUc dat diioc cua n a m 2008. Cu thd, Cdng ddng cac quoc gia doe lap - 2,1% so vdi 5,3%, nhdm nude Chau A mdi ndi va dang phat tridn - 6,5% so vdi 7,3%, nhdm nude Chau Au mdi ndi va dang p h a t trien - 2,8% so vdi 3,3%, Chau My Latinh va Caribe - 2,7% so vdi 4,3%; Trung Ddng, Bac Phi - 2,4%
so vdi 5,1%, Chau Phi can Sahara - 4,9% so vdi 5,7%. Nhdm nUdc p h a t trien cd xu hudng khdi phuc kinh td kha quan hdn. Tang trudng kinh t d n a m 2013 cua nhdm nude nay dat 1,3% so vdi miic 0,1% nam 2008. Trong 3 lanh thd n h a p khau h a n g hda va dich vu Viet Nam nhieu nhKt, toe dp tang trUdng kinh te cua My va Nhat Ban n a m 2013 vUdt mUc cua n a m 2008 (1,9 va 1,5% so vdi -6,3 va -1%). Tuy nhien, nen kinh te cua khu vUc Chau Au vdn i ach (-0,5 % so vdi 0,4%). Nhin chung, nen kinh te the gidi phuc hdi chUa ben vUng hay diing hdn, ehua thue sii thoat day ciia khung hoang.
Tdm lai, phan tich cac chi so tang trttdng trong nhQng linh vUc kinh te - xa hdi t h e n ehdt ciia nen kinh t d Viet Nam cho thay rling, ba't cha'p chi mot sd' chi tieu xa hdi cd su tien trien tot hdn nam 2008 do sU tac ddng dac thii cua khung hoang, h^u het cac chi s d p h a t trien deu chua dat mUc dp ciia nam nay, tUe la n a m tien khiing hoang. Dieu dd chuiig td chiing ta chUa khdi phuc dUdc nhiing dieu kien cho p h a t trien kinh te - xa hdi ciia nam trUdc khi khung hoang kinh te the gidi xay ra. Ndi mot each khac, neu nhiing dieu kien cho phat trien trUdc
do chUa dUdc phuc hdi, n e n k i n h t e Viet Nam v a n chUa thoat day. Dua trdn p h a n tich day so ddng t h a i cua s a n lUdng thuc va mot sd chi sd bd sung khac, chi dii dd cd the n h a n dinh rang, dang xua!t hien nhiing daii hidu lac quan chUng td nen kinh te nUdc t a dang thoat day v^
n e u nhflng dSii hidu dd gia t a n g mot each bdn viing thi nen kinh te se thoat day trong tridn vong. Ket qua p h a n tich so s a n h trong bai viet nay la mdt l u a n cti khoa hpc dd Nha nUdc xSy dung hoac didu chinh chinh sach p h a t tridn kinh te - xa hdi trong nhflng n a m sap t d i /
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO
1. B6 Lao dang, tthirong binh vS xa hoi (2014), Bdn tin cap nhat thi tn^ng lao ddng Viit Nam, sd 1, quy 1 nam 2014,
http:/AnoUsa.gov.vn/vi/Pages/niiTruongLaoD(Mig.aspx.
2. BO THi chinh, truy cap mof.gov.vn.
3. Bums, A., Mitchell, W. (1946), Measuring Business Cycles. New York, NBER.
4. Haberler, G. (1958), Prosperity and Depression - Theoretical Analysis of Cyclical Movements. London.
5. Illarjonof, A. vk cdng su (2002), Quy m6 nhik nu6c vi tang midng kinh tfi'. Tap chi Nhiing van de kinh te(Uin bang Nga), N 9.
6. IMF (2014), World Economic Oudook database, http://www.imf.org/extemal^ubs/ft/weo/2014A11/weodata^
ndex.aspx.
7. IMF (2014), Worid Economic Outlook "Recovery Strengthens, Remains Uneven", http://www.iinf.org/extenial /Pubs/fE/weo/2014/01/.
8. Lukas, R. (1977), Understanding Business Cycles, Ed.
by Bninner, K., Meltzer A. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 5.
9. NBER (2014), http://nber.org/cycles/sept2010.html.
10. Nguyen Ngoc Thach (2014), Rao can th^ ch^ dfii viSi tang trudng kinh t^ ViSt Nam, Tap chi Kinh te'va dubdo. 36 9(569), tr. 13-17.
11. Tdng cue Thdng ke, Nifin gidm thdng ke 2008,2009, nien giam thdng ke tdm tit 2013, Tinh Wnh kinh t^ - xa hOi nam 2008,2013, tmy cap gso.gov.vn.
12. Trung tarn Nang su^t Viet Nam (2014), APO Productivity Data Book 2010, Tmy cap htq)://www.vpc.
org.vn/Desktop.aspx/Chuong-trinh~du-an-APO/Chuong- , trinh-Du-An-APO/An_pham_APO/.
13. Oy ban Gidm sdt t ^ chinh qu6c gia (2014), BSo cto finh hinh kinh tdf Viet Nam qu^ 1 v i du b&) ca nam 2014.
ht^://nfsc.gov.vn/bao-cao-giam-sat/tinh-hinh-kinh-te-viel- nam-quy-i-va-du-bao-ca-nam-2014.
10 Nghien a3u Kinh tSs6434 - Thing 7/2014
