Quan ly va dieu tiet cac d o n g v o n nw&c ngoai vao cac nen kinh te m a i noi va m o t s o g a i y cho Viet Nam
Th.S. NGUYfiN THI VU HA*
Mac dil cdc ddng vdn vdo dd dem lgi nhirng lal Ich nhdt dinh cho cdc nude tlip
nhdn nhung sy gia tdng qud muc ddng vdn vdo Igl tgo ra cdc bdt dn vT md vd riil ro dn dinh tdl chlnh nhu tgo dp luc tdng gid ndi te (dnh hudng xdu din cgnh tranh cQng nhu rui ro tiin te), thdi phdng tin dung, tdng gid tdl sdn vd cd thi khuich dgl su yeu at cua he thdng tdl chlnh. Chlnh vl vdy, hdu hit cdc nude diu It nhiiu sic dung cdc cong cu khdc nhau de qudn ly vd diiu tiit cdc ddng vdn nude ngodi vdo.
Bdi viet ndy phdn tich cdc bien phdp dd dugc cdc nude mdi ndi sic dung di diiu tiet vd klem sodt cdc dong vdn vdo, tic do dua ra mdt sd gal y cho Viet Nam trong vl?c qudn ly vd diiu tiit cdc ddng von nude ngodi vdo Viet Nam.
Tir khda: Cdc ddng vdn, dieu tiet cdc ddng vdn, cdc nen kinh te mdi ndi 1. Die diem ciia cic dong von vao if mot so nen kinh te m6i noi hien nay
Cac dong von vao ma chu yeu li dong von vay giin tiep dii han (long - term portfolio debt flows) tai mpt so ndn kinh td mod n6i trong thai gian gan day nhu Brazil, Indonesia, Han Quoc, Peru, Nam Phi, Thii Lan vi Th6 NhT Ky dang gia ting nhanh chdng. Thuc te dd da lim gia ting dang ke du triJ ngoai td cua cic nude vi
*Triremg Dfi hpc Kinh - Dfi hpc Qu6c gia Hi N§i
lam cho ddng ndi td len gii thuc td. Ty gii hdi doii thuc td da quay trd lai muc trudc khi khiing hoang tai chinh toan ciu xay ra mac dii miic dp tang gia danh nghTa ddng ndi td la khdng dang kd vi rat khic nhau giira cac qudc gia. Ben canh do, ddng vdn gian tidp nude ngoai vao tang manh da lam gia chiing khoan vi trii phieu tang, die bidt la d cic nude cd thi trudng vdn chua phat tridn sau. Diu hidu vd
"bong bdng" tai sin cdn md nhat nhung miic dp tin dung cho khu vuc tu nhan da tang cao d mdt sd nude (IMF, 2011).
Nhiyng vin di KINH Tt VA CHINH TR\ THt G\Cn S6 3(203) 2013
Quan ly vi dieu tiet cic d6ng von nu-gc ngoii. Nguyin Thj Vu Hi Bing 1 cho thay, dp ldm cua cac dong von
vao (tinh theo phin trim GDP) o Th6 Nhi Ky li ldm nhit Cxip xi 7% GDP), tidp ddn li Nam Phi, Brazil vi Peru. Han Quoc li nuoc eo muc dp cic dong von vio trdn GDP nho nhit, trong s6 bay qudc gia dupe khio sit (1,9% GDP). Xdt vd
thanh phin cic ddng vdn vio. Nam Phi li nude cd ty Id diu tu giin tidp so vdi tdng sd cic ddng von vio trong nude ldn nhit, trong khi dd Peru li nude cd ty Id diu tu true tidp ldn nhat; Thii Lan va Thd Nhi Ky li nude cd ty Id diu tu khic ldn nhat.
' D6ng v6n vdo rdng di/crc tinh bdng t6ng cic gid trj r6ng cua v6n aku tir tn/c ti^p nu<K ngodi, v6n gidn ti^p vd Oku ttr khdc. S6 ^ . Il^u tfu-grc tlnh tir quy 3 ndm 2009 din quy 2 ndm 2010.
Ngudn: IMF (2011): Recent Experiences in Managing Capital Inflows Cross - Cutting Themes and Possible Policy Framework.
2. Cach thirc quan ly va dieu tiet cac dong von vio
Dd doi phd vdi nhirng nii ro kinh td vT md tu cae ddng vdn vio, nhidu ndn kinh td mdi ndi da cho phep ty gii hdi doii dao ddng tdi miie phii hpp; ting du trir tdi mure phii hpp vdi he thdng bao hiem qudc gia, vi dam bio rang vide kdt hpp cic chinh sich trong nude (cac chinh sich tii khda va tidn td) phii hpp vdi su can bing bdn trong va vdi mdt phuomg in virng chic cho np cdng. Ngoii ra, de dn djnh tii chinh, cac nude cdn sir dung cic bidn phip kidm soat vdn ciing vdi cic cdng cu va cic quy dinh than trpng trong nude. Cu thd vide sir dung cic cdng cu quin ly va didu tidt cac ddng vdn vao ciia mpt sd nen kinh td mdi ndi nhu sau:
Thu nhdt, thd noi vd de ddng tien len gid.
Trudc tinh trang ddng vdn nude ngoai dd vio trong nude qui nhidu mi ty Id cic ddng vdn vio lai khic nhau giira, cic qudc gia da sir dung cac loai cdng cu khic nhau dd quan ly vi didu tidt vdn. Nam Phi vi Brazil li hai nude dd cho ddng tidn len gii danh nghTa nhidu nhit (% thay ddi tinh hi day khiing hoang' la 41,4% ddi vdi Nam Phi vi 38,4% ddi vdi Brazil). Day cung li hai nude cd ty Id vdn diu tu giin tiep chidm ty trpng ldn nhit trong tdng sd ddng vdn vio.
Thu hai, can thiep vdo thi trudng ngoai hSl.
Thii Lan li nude cd ty Id von dau Ur giin tiep thap nhat trong tdng sd cic ddng von vio lai l\ra ' Khiing hoang tii chfnh toin ciu ndm 2008.
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Nguyfen Th} VO Ha Quin ly vi tilt cic d6ng von nu'dc ngoii...
chpn phuong in ting du trii ngoai hdi de didu tiet cic ddng vdn nude ngoii vio. Muc dd tang du trOr ngoai hdi cua Thii li 22,3% GDP so vdi diy khung hoing. Mdt dieu can luu y li Thii Lan vi Thd NhT Ky - hai nude cd ty l^dku tu khic chiem phan ldn trong tdng sd cic ddng von vio lai su dung du trir ngoai hdi theo hai hudng khic tihau. Du trii ngoai hdi ctia Thii Lan ting manh, trong khi dd du trii ngoai hdi ctia Tho NhT Ky lai ting khdng ding ke. Du trii ngoai hoi ctia Brazil, Peru, Indonesia vi Thai Lan chiem khoang 35 - 50% GDP kd tir cudi nim 2009.
Ting du trii ngoai hdi de ddi phd vdi cic ddng vdn vio cd the gay ra lam phit vi bat dn ty gii. Chinh vi vay, bdn canh vide tang du trir ngoai hdi, Brazil, Peru, Indonesia va Thii Lan cdn sii d\mg eic bidn phip tnmg hda hda nhim giim bdt sy: bien dpng cua ty gia hdi doii, ma cy thd li lim cham lai tdc dd ting gii ndi td it nhat Ii trong ngin han. Tuy nhidn, chi phi tnmg hda hda ngiy cing cao da khidn mdt sd qudc gia khdng muon sti dyng cdng cy niy nhidu.
Thif ba, cong cu tien te. Bdn canh cic cdng cy nhu ty gii hdi doii vi du trii ngoai hdi, de quin Iy vi didu tidt cic ddng vdn vio, cie qudc gia edn su dyng cic cdng cy thudc chinh sich tien td nhu Iii suit chiet khiu va ty Id du trii bit buQc. Hau het cic nude ddu ting lai suit chidt khau vi ty Id du trii bit budc, ngoai trir Nam Phi vi Tho NhT Ky. Nam Phi vi Thd NhT Ky da cit giim lii suat kd tir khi nhan duoc nhieu vdn vio tir giii-a nim 2009. Vide ndi Idng tidn td d Nam Phi chu ydu Ii vi myc tidu tang trudng kinh td, cdn d Tho NhT Ky Ii dd giam bdt cic ddng vdn vio vi han chd cac hinh ddng dinh cupe mpt chieu (one - way bets) cua cicjiha diu tu nude ngoii. Hinh ddng niy ctia Thd NhT Ky da khien lam phit d nude nay trong giai doan tir nim 2006 - 2008 la 9,6% va trong 6 thing cuoi nim 2009 diu nim 2010 la 7,9%
(cao nhat trong so 7 nude dupc khio sat).
Thing 7 nim 2011, Ngan hing Trung ucmg
(NHTW) Thd NhT Ky giii lai suit d mirc 6,25%
nham thu hep hinh lang lai suit trong bdi einh np cdng cua cac ndn kinh td chau Au dang gap nhieu khd khan va mdi quan ngai vd ting trudng kinh td toan ciu tidp tyc cd nhirng ydu td tic ddng bat Ipi tdi hidu qua quan Iy nii ro d nude niy. Nam Phi, nude ciing ip dyng chinh sich tidn td ndi Idng nhu Thd NhT Ky nhimg do nude nay dd ddng tidn ting gii danh nghTa manh ndn ip lyc ciia eac ddng vdn vio ldn ty Id lam phit Ii khdng nhidu. Ty Id lam phat d Nam Phi 6 thing cudi nim 2009 dau nim 2010 li 3,6%. Thing 7 nam 2011, NHTW Nam Phi da giii nguydn lai suit d mirc 5,5%. Hdi ddng Chinh sich tidn td NHTW Nam Phi dang tidp tyc theo ddi sit sao eic chi so cd inh hudng tdi lam phat nhu chi phi, cie nii ro tic ddng tdi xu hudng lam phit...
Thir tu, cong cu tai khoa. Bdn canh vide sir dyng chinh sich tien td thi chinh sach tii khda ciing dupc cic nude sir dyng. Indonesia, Han Quoc vi Nam Phi la 3 nude ip dyng chinh sich tii khda thit chit (bing each cat giam chi tidu chinh phu) trong khi dd Brazil, Peru, thii Lan va Thd NhT Ky lai ip dyng chinh sach ndi Idng tii khda. Brazil ip dyng chinh sich tii khda md rdng cho den cudi nim 2010 thdng qua vide Chinh phu trp cip cho cic ngan hing phit tridn cdng cy cho vay Thd NhT Ky tidp tyc duy tri chinh sach tai khda md rdng trong nim 2011.
Vide that chat tii khda da khidn cho ting trudng tin dyng d Nam Phi giim (0,1%) vi ting rit it d Thii Lan (0,4%) trong thing cudi nim 2009 diu nim 2010. Vide ndi Idng tidn td va tai khda ddng thdi d Thd Nhi Ky khidn cho tang trudng tin dyng cua nude niy ting cao (miic tang trudng tin dyng trong thing cudi nam 2009 dau nam 2010 la 21,4%). Thir ndm, cdc cdng cu kiem sodt von true tiip. Vide ip dung cic bidn phip didu tidt
ddng von {Capital flow management measures - CFMs) nhu dinh thud vio cic NhQvg vin di KINH Tt VA CHiNH TR| THt Gidl S6 3(203) 2013
Quin ly vi di4u tilt cdc dbng v6n nude ngoii. Nguyin Thj VO Hii giao dich ngoai hdi hay cic bien phip hinh
chinh dugrc hiu het cic nuoc ip dung ngoai tru Nam Phi (Nam Phi chi ip dyng, cic bien phip kiem soit v6n ra). Tuy nhien, day chi la mgt cong cu dugc sir dung phdi hgrp vdi cie cdng cu kinh te vT md khic chu khdng phii li mgt cdng cu ehinh. Hiu hit cic nude ip dyng CFMs sau khi thiy ddng tien quoc gia
ting gii nhanh chdng (xem Hinh 1) nhim giim bdt hoic ngin ch$n su gia ting niy.
CFMs chli ylu dugc thilt kl nhim giim bdt tic ddng ciia cic ddng vdn tren cic thi trudng tii sin vi cic ddng vdn ngin h^;
khuyin khich cic ddng vdn dii h^, on djnh vi cd hieu qui vi ngin ngua su dio chilu dgt nggt cua eic ddng vdn.
Hinh 1: Ty gii hoi doii danh nghTa vi vifc sir dyng CMFs * mOt s6 n mdi n6i (thing 01/2008 din thing 12/2010) c dang phit triln
1/08 7/08 IW
Ghi chu: Duong thing dung thi hi?n thai diim chinh phu cdc nuac bdt ddu dp dung CMFs.
Ngudn: IMF
Doi mit vdi sy ting gii ndi te, thing 10 nim ddng vdn dau tu gian tilp (lOFs), ting thui gap 2009, Brazil di phye hdi lai thue danh vao cic ddi doi vdi cac ddng vdn vay vi md rgng yeu
24 -NhOng vin di KINH T^ vA CHINH TRj TH^ Gl6l SA 3(203) 2013
Nguyfen Thj VO Ha Quan \)f vi didu tilt cac dong v6n nuac ngoai..
ciu ky quy doi vdi cac giao djch phai smh. lOF d Brazil da ting tir 2% len 4% vao thang 10/2010 va sau dd len 6% (IMF, 2011). lOF da lam giam ap luc tang gia ndi te, tuy nhien tac ddng cua nd cdn rat han che.
C) Indonesia, CFMs dugc thuc hien bang each giij- tdi thieu mdt thang cac giay bac cua NHTW (SBIs) khdng phan biet ngudi cu tru va ngudi khdng cu tni khi ho mua sim tren cac thi trudng so cap va thu cap. Muc dich cua bien phap nay la nhim giam bdt su bit dn ciia cac ddng vdn cd lien quan den SBIs va nd da phat huy tic dimg trong ngan ban. Tuy nhien, sau mpt thdi gian ngin thi sd hint SBIs cua ngudi khdng cu tni nude ngoai da tang hom miic nam giii trudc dd. Thang 12/2010, Indonesia tang ty 1? dg trii bit budc ddi vdi cac khoan tien giri ngoai te (cd hieu luc vao thang 3 va thang 6/2011) va tdi ap dung ban miic ddi vdi cac khoin vay ngin ban nude ngoai (30% vdn cua cic ngan hing, cd hieu luc tir thing 3/2011).
Thing 6/2010, Hin Qudc ap dung miic tran doi vdi cic giao dich ngoai hoi ky ban eua cic ngin hing nhim giam bdt miic dd md eiia cua h? thdng ngan hang vi kdo dai thdi ban cic khoin quy cua ngan hing. Hin Qudc khdng ap dung cic bien phip ban che ddng vdn vay vi ddng von giin tiep. Cic bien phip niy di thinh cdng trong viec ban che cic giao dich ngoai hdi phii sinh cua cie ngan hang va giim bdt cac khoan ng nude ngoii ngin ban. Thing 1/2011, Han Qudc tii ap dung thue nim giir (witholding tax) doi vdi cic khoan mua trai phieu kho bac vi cae trii phieu dn dinh hda tien te (monetary stabilization bonds^^). Hin Qudc eiing dua ra kd hoach du dinh ip dimg miic thud dn dinh vT md ddi vdi cic khoin ngoai td khdng phii tidn giri cua cic ngan hing tir cudi nim 2011 nham giim bdt cic ddng von ngin ban nude ngoii vio.
^ TrAi philu dung dl hS trg cho chfnh sdch tien te cua NHTW nhim hap thy thanh khoan cua thj tnidng
Thing 10/2010, Thii Lan da tii ip dung thud nim giir trii phidu nha nude ddi vdi nhiing ngudi khdng cu tni la cic nhi dau tu ci nhan bang vdi miic thud cua cic nha dau tu ca nhan li ngudi cu tni va thud nim giir trai phidu ddi vdi cic nha diu tu li cic td chiic phi eu tni la 15%, cao hom so vdi cic nha dau tu la cac td chiic cu tni (1%). Didu nay da lam giam bdt (chi tam thdi), cic ddng vdn vio vi sau dd cae ddng vdn vao tihanh chdng dugc phuc hdi.
Thing 12/2010, Thd NhT Ky ap dung chinh sach giam thud nim giii ddi vdi cac trii phidu do cac cdng ty ciia Thd NhT Ky phat hinh bdn ngoai linh tho, thdi ban cang dii lai suat cing thap. Dd ban chd ting trudng tin dung, Thd NhT Ky ting thud danh vio lgi tiic ciia cac khoin vay tidu diing, ting khoan tidn phii tri tdi thidu cho the tin dung dua trdn gidi ban tin dung va bit dau han chd cic khoan vay dua vio gii tri (LTV) ddi vdi tit ca cac khoin thd chap.
Tdm lai, trong giai doan hdi nhap kinh td toin ciu nhu hidn nay, vide di chuydn vdn giira cac qudc gia di dem lai nhidu lgi ich cho ca nude cung cap lan nude tidp nhan. Tuy nhidn, cic ddng vdn niy lai in chiia nhieu nii ro kinh td vT md cho cic nude tidp nhan. Do dd, chinh phu cic nude di phai ap dung linh boat cae bidn phap quan ly vi didu tidt cic ddng vdn nude ngoii vao theo hudng dai ban, dn dinh, gdp phin giiip ndn kinh td mdi ndi phit tridn mdt each bdn viing.
3. Mot so giai phap dieu tiet ddng von nirdc ngoai vao Viet Nam
Cae ddng von nude ngoai vio Vidt Nam tuomg ddi da dang, phong phii va bidn ddng tuomg ddi ldn. Trong dd, vdn dau tu true tidp nude ngoai do vao Viet Nam tuomg ddi lidn tuc va gia ting manh trong nam 2008, 2009; vdn diu tu gian tiep nude ngoii cd su ting trudng manh me trong nam 2006 - 2007 va da thao chay khdi Viet Nam cudi nim 2008, dau nam 2009 va bit dau quay trd lai Viet Nam vao cudi NhOng vin dS KINH Tt VA CHINH TRj THt G\Cn So 3(203) 2013 25
Quan ly vi Jieu tilt cic dong v6n nurdc ngodi... Nguyin Thj Vu Hi nim 2009; von dau tu khac ma cu the \k von
ODA vio Viet Nam lien tuc tdng ea ve so lugmg cam ket, ky kit va giai ngan con v6n diu tu du6i dang tien vi tien gui lai bien dgng len xuong tuong doi ldm. Su gia ting nhanh chong cic ddng vdn vio trong giai doan 2006 - 2007 d Viet Nam dugc cho li mdt trong nhimg nguyen nhin gay ra bat on kinh te vT md vi tai ehinh d Viet Nam giai doan 2007 - 2009 nhung van dl quin ly vi dilu tiet cic ddng vdn niy chua thuc s\r dugc quan tam vi dilu tilt chit che. Chinh vi vay, trong thdi gian tdi, khi cic ddng von bit dau quay trd lai Vigt Nam (tir nim 2010), Viet Nam cin luu y mgt so vin dl sau dl cd thi quin ly va dieu tilt hgp ly cic ddng vdn vao.
3.1. Lua chpn cdng cu dieu tiet phu hgrp DI doi phd vdi sg gia ting qui miic cic ddng von vio, cic nude tiep nhan cd the sir d\mg cic nhdm cdng cu thugc chinh sich kinh te vT md, chinh sich than frgng vi cie cdng cu kilm soit von. d Vigt Nam, viec su d\mg eae cdng eu niy chua thgc su higu qui, do dd, cic nhi hoach dinh chinh sach can lua chgn rit ky cae cdng cu dieu tilt phii hgp. Cu the:
- Ddi vdi nhdm cdng cu chinh sdch kinh te vT mo. Cie cdng cy chinh sich kinh te vT md dl dilu tilt su gia ting qui muc eic ddng vdn vio bao gdm: cho phep ting gii ndi tg - trong dieu kign ddng tiln khdng bj dinh gii qui cao;
ting dg trO" ngoai hdi de chong lai su ting gii ngi te (chi trong trudng hgp ddng tiln qudc gia la ddng tien manh); vi can thiep vd hieu hda niu cd ip luc lam phat; ha thip lii suit trong nude neu khoing trdng vl sin lugng cho phdp vi su dyng pham vi cd sin dd thit chit chinh sach tai khda. Ddng tien Vidt Nam da lidn tyc bi dinh gia cao gong 3 nim diu ciia thip ky vira qua vi tilp tyc xu hudng dd Uong 3 nim gan day vdi miic dg cdn nghidm Ugng horn trudc (Vii Qudc Huy, Nguyen Thu Hing, Nguyen Hii Ding, 2012). Do dd, Viet Nam khd cd the sir dyng
chmh sich ty gii dl didu tilt tic dgng tieu eye cua ddng vdn vio giy ra.
Bdn canh dd, dir trir ngoai hoi ciia Vidt Nam lidn tyc dugc tich luy tir nim 2000 din nim 2008 Uong dd die bidt li nim 2007, dg trii ngoai tg tang hom 10 ty USD^ tuomg iing vdi su gia ting manh eiia cic ddng vdn vio. Tuy nhidn, hai nam 2009 vi 2010, do sy syt giim eua tdng cic ddng vdn vio nim 2008 vi 2009 ndn dy trii cua Vidt Nam giim manh, nim 2009 giim gan 9 ty USD vi nam 2010 giim 1,8 ty USD. Nam 2011 dy trii ting hom 1 ty USD. Dilu niy eho thiy, Ngan hang Nhi nude (NHNN) Vidt Nam di sir dyng dy trir ngoai hii nhu li mdt cdng cy chinh tiong vide dilu tilt vi quin ly cic ddng von vio.
Didu niy da tao ra ip lyc lam phat d Vidt Nam Uong nim 2007 vi 2008 (nim 2007 lam phit ting manh ldn ddn 12,6% vi 20% tiong nim 2008"). Do dd, NHNN di su dyng ehinh sich can thidp vd hidu dd vd higu hda tic dgng cua cic ddng vdn vio ddn lam phit ma cy the li NHNN di thuc hidn nghidp vy thi trudng md vi ting dy trir bit budc. Thdng qua chinh sich can thidp vd hidu, NHNN thu hoi ve 90.000 ty VND, vi thi so tiln 55.000 ty dong van nim d trong luu thdng cua din chiing, tang 34,6% so vdi cudi nim 2006 (55.000 ty ddng/159.000 ty ddng). Tuy nhidn, hidu qui cua vide triln khai nghidp vy thi trudng md chua cao, chii ylu do quy md gia tri lugmg cdng cy sir dyng cho nghidp vy niy cdn han chl so vdi quy md ciia lugmg tidn ddng.
Giai doan 2007 - 2008 la giai doan mi nen kinh tl Viet Nam va kinh tl thi gidi bit diu chiu anh hudng tir cudc khung hoing tii chinh tir Mj'.
Trong bdi canh cac ngudn von nude ngoii ting cao, ip luc lam phit, tham hyt cin can thuang ' Chiem hon 99,7% mdc tSng ciia t6ng tdi sin A\f tr& cua
Vi?t Nam.
' Nguyin Thj Thu Hing, Nguyin Ddc Thinh (2011):
Nguon goc Igm phdt a Vift Nam giai dogn 2000-2010:
phdt hi?n mdi tit nhung bdng chung m&i.
•NhOng vin di KINH VA CHINH TRj THf Gl6l S6 3(203) 2013
Nguyfen Thj Vu Hh Quan ly vd difeu tilt cac dong v6n nude ngoai..
mai va ngan sdch, Viet Nam da thuc hien chinh sach tdi khoa thdt chdt. Tuy nhien, tu nam 2009, trong boi canh suy thoai kinh tl lan rong ra toan cau, Viet Nam bupc phai thuc hien ehinh sdch tki khda md rpng de dn dinh, tang trudng kinh te, chong lai tmh trang lam phat va thit nghiep, tao viec lam cho ngudi lao ddng.
Tir vi?e phan tieh cac nhdm cdng cu chinh sach kinh te vT md fren day ed thd thSy, vide sir dyng ede chinh sach kinh td vT md de giam thieu tde ddng tidu cue do sir gia tang cac ddng vdn vko gay ra cua Vidt Nam chua dupc nhidu va higu qua. Do dd, dd doi phd vdi cac nii ro/bit dn vT md thi vipc didu tiet cua Chinh phu va NHNN thdng qua cac cdng cu kinh td vT md la chua thuc sy cd nhieu tdc ddng.
- Ddi vai nhom cac cdng cu than trgng. Vide sir dyng cdc ehinh sich than frpng dupc xac dinh
thdng qua vide phan tich muc dp nii ro di vay tryc tiep nude ngoai va nii ro bung nd tin dyng do chu chuyen von gay ra. Qua phan tich moi quan he gi&a cac ddng vdn vao va cic nii ro vT md vi tii chinh d Vidt Nam thdi gian qua, die bidt li giai doan 2007 - 2009 cd thd thay ring, nii ro di vay true tidp nude ngoii ciia Vidt Nam khdng cao nhung nii ro bting nd tin dyng ndi dia ldn.
Chinh vi vay, Vidt Nam da thue hidn eac chinh sich than frpng nhu: ban chd ngan hing vay ngoai hoi (thdng qua vide quy dinh frang thii ngoai td cua cic td chiic tin dyng dupc phep boat dpng ngoai hdi); yeu cau dy trir khic nhau cho cic khoan np bing ndi td vi ngoai hoi; ban chd ting trudng tin dyng frong nude vi tap trung cho vay; eic quy dinh vd dy tru vi phan loai tii san, tidn hinh dy phdng nii ro cho vay, ty Id eho vay frdn tong gii tri tai sin tdi da. Nhin chung, cac bidn phip than frpng d Vidt Nam da khi day du. Tuy nhien, hidu qui thuc hidn thi cdn li mpt dieu can quan tam, vi neu nhu nhiing bipn phip dua ra mdt cich kip thdi, chinh xic vi thich hpp thi Vidt Nam da khdng gip phii tinh frang khd khin frong vin dd thanh khoin ciia cic ngin hing thuong mai (NHTM)
nim 2008 - 2009, lam phat ting dot bidn 23,1%
nim 2008, cau ngoai tang cao mi cung thi ban chd... Didu quan frpng li cic bidn phap niy cin dupc thyc hidn va sii dyng diing liic frong khoing thdi gian ddng vdn vio diy bidn ddng, dy trii ngoai hdi ting cao, ip lye lam phit ting cao trong thdi gian dd.
- Ddi vai nhdm cdc cdng cu kiim sOdt vdn.
Cie cdng cy kidm soit vdn bao gdm: cie cdng cy kidm soat hinh chinh ddi vdi tdng sd lupng vdn vio; dinh thud va cac giao dich ngoai hdi;
yeu ciu ty Id du trii khdng hudng lai suit va cic quy dinh nhu sir dyng cac bidn phap cip giiy phep ddi vdi cic loai hinh diu tu, quy dinh miic fran ddi vdi ty Id ed phan nude ngoii trong cac cdng ty trong nude, phit hanh cd phin qudc td phai dupc chinh phu cho phep...
Vidt Nam khdng dua ra eac bidn phap quy djnh tryc tidp ldn tdng sd lupng vdn vio ma dua ra cic quy djnh vd vide md tii khoan diu tu, khdng danh thud tryc tidp vao cic giao dich ngoai hdi mi ydu ciu cic miic thud khic nhau cho cic nha dau tu nude ngoii; khdng ydu ciu eic nhi dau tu nude ngoii phii giri mdt phin vdn cua minh vdi mirc lai suit bing 0 mi chi ydu ciu cic tap doan, tdng cdng ty nha nude phii ban ngoai td dang tidn giii ngoai td cd ky ban vi khdng ky ban cho cic td chiic tin dyng dupc phep va ip dyng miic ty Id dy trir bit budc khdng hudng lai ddi vdi cic td chirc tin dyng (thdng qua gidi ban trang thii ngoai td). Tuy nhidn, Vidt Nam da ban hanh cic quy dinh vd vide cap giay phep ddi vdi cie loai hinh dau tu, quy dinh vd ty Id sd hiiu cd phan ciia cac nha dau tu nude ngoii va quy dinh chuydn Ipi nhuan vd nude... Tir nhirng thyc td trdn day cd thd thiy, Vidt Nam it, nhidu da sir dyng cie edng.ey lidn quan den cic nhdm kidm soat vdn. Tuy nhidn, miic dp kiem soit va didu tiet eac ddng vdn vio van chua cao. Tie gii xin dua ra mdt sd gpi y nhim giiip Viet Nam lya chpn dupe cic cdng cy didu tidt phii hpp dya trdn co sd nghidn cim ciia IMF.
NhOng vin dd KINH Tt VA CHINH TRj TH^ Gidl Sd 3(203) 2013 '27 I. •
Quan ly va dieu tiet cac dong von nifgc ngoai.. Nguyen Thj Vu Ha Hinh 2. Lua chon cdng.cu nhdm giam thieu rui ro tu cac i
dong von luan chuven qua he thong cac ngan hang | Cau true tai san no ben
ngoai de vo (sai lech tiioi lign/niiro dimg dot ngdt) [
Riil ro tien te (do vi tlie ngoai hoi md) ho3c nil ro tin d\uig (do
ngudi vay klidng bao liiem) Cac bign pliap kieni scat
vdn/cdngqi thjii tiong lien i quan den ngogi hdi i
Cac cdng c\\ than tiong hen quan den ngoad hoi
'"Kiem soat vdn ddi vdi cac ngan [ ! Gidi h^i \'i tlie ngoai lidimd/>'eu liaiig (dfic biet la cac klioaniio t ' can von cao hon Ueu cac klioaii ngin lian). vd: time/ cac yeu can . no doi vdi idifmg kliachliaiig vay
klidng bao Idem •
Bimg nd tin d\mg/bong bdng
gia tai san Cac cdng c\i
thgn hoiig kliac klwc c.ic yeii cau ve xoa^;
vong von. gioi han ve . klioaii uo treii toiig gia tii
tai sail Ji Thuc tiu cac bi^n phap kiem soat Cac van de hen quan deu klia nJuig
von tlieo lugt hay "lach luat? tiep can tai cliinli bop meo?
I Cdug cy bao hiem lien
quan den ngoai hoi Ciic cdug cu kiem .soat vou Thuc te Viet Nam cho thay, cac dong vdn chay vao Viet Nam chu yeu la qua cac dinh che tai chinh chiu sir dieu tiet (RFls - Regulated Flnanlcal Institutions) chir khdng thdng qua hinh thiic vay no true tiep^. Ddng vdn vao Viet Nam deu phai luan chuyen qua he thdng ngan hang (trir mdt phan cua ddng kieu hdi). Va he thdng ngan hang Viet Nam dang gap phai cac van de nhu: cau tnic tai san no ben ngoai de vd (sai lech thdi han/nii ro dimg dot ngdt); nii ro tien te (do vi the ngoai hdi md) hoac nii ro tin dung (do ngudi vay khdng bao hiem) va nii ro biing nd tin dung/bong bdng gia tai san. Chinh vi vay, de giam thieu nii ro tir cac ddng vdn luan chuyen qua he thdng ngan hang, Viet Nam nen ap dung ket hop cac bien phap than trong va kiem soat vdn (xem Hinh 2):
' Theo each phan loai nay thi cac to chuc phi ngan hang ma nam ngoai tim anh hudng tir nhung ngudi quan ly la bp phan cua vay ng tr\rc tilp.
Kiem soat vdn ddi vdi cac ngan hang (dac biet la cac khoan no ngan han), vi du nhu thue hoac cac yeu cau ve du trii khdng hudng lai suat.
Gidi ban vi the ngoai hdi md/yeu ciu vdn cao hon tren cac khoan no ddi vdi nhung khach hang vay khdng bao hiem.
Cae yeu cau ve quay vdng vdn, gidi ban ve khoan no tren tdng gia tri tai san.
Khi sii dung ket hop cac bien phap than trong va kiem soat vdn, Viet Nam can luu y, do cac cdng cu than tiong duoc thiet ke nham giam thieu nii ro trong khu vyc tai chinh nen cin uu tien sii dyng, nhat la khi viec giam sat duoc thyc hien hieu qua.
Cling can luu y rang, rat khd de dua ra cac chinh sach cd hieu qua nhanh vi phan ldn cac bien phap phai phy thudc vao timg trudng hop cy the. Nhung nguyen tac co ban la vi?c su dyng cac cdng cy (hoac ket hop nhieu cdng cy) se giup dat duoc myc tieu chinh sach mdt each tdt nhat vdi chi phi thap nhat. Khi ap dyng cac -Nhu-ng van de KINH it VA CHINH TR! TH^ Gidl So 3(203) 2013
Nguyin Thj VO Hi Quan ly va dieu tidt cac dong v6n nuac ngoai..
bi^n phdp dk giai quylt cac vin de on dinh tai chinh thi muc tieu se la giam thieu nii ro ma khong ldm giam quy mo dong von vao. Khi cac bi?n phdp ndy dugc can nhic sir dimg vi cac ly do kinh te vT mo thi muc tieu la giim thieu tdng khdi lugng cac ddng vdn vao (ma khdng nhat thiet anh hudng den cau tnic ctia chiing); va mot dieu can thiet dd Id cin ap dung chinh sach vi md trudc khi lua chon ap dung cac cdng cu than gpng va kilm soat vdn.
3.2. Thiet lap cdc bien phdp liiem sodt von hifu qud
Bdn canh viec lua chon cac cdng cu phu hgp thi Vigt Nam ciing cin thiet lap cac bien phap kiem soat von hieu qua bdi vipc thuc thi chinh sach kinh tl vi md va cac bien phap than frpng d Vidt Nam chua thgc sg hidu qua.
Mpt gdi cdng cu kiem soat vdn hidu qua phii li mpt nhdm cdng cu dim bio dat dupc m\ic tidu ban dau vi khdng bi "lich luat" de ding va ning suit (tdi thilu hda su bidn dang vi pham vi ip dgng kidm soit khdng minh b^ch, rd ring).
Can luu y ring trong nhidu trudng hpp, kidm soit von li khdng cin thilt bdi vi vide sir dung hpp ly cic chinh sach kinh tl vT md va cac cdng cy than frpng (cac cdng cy nay khdng cd tinh chit phan bidt nhu kilm soit vdn) da cd thi giup giii quylt cac nii ro. Tuang tg nhu vay, mpt dilu quan frpng trong khi Iga chpn cic chinh sich dd li khdng ndn qui tap trung vio sg hoin hio mi qudn di cic bidn phap hidu qua khac; se cd nhidu cdng cy khic nhau cd thd sir dyng va niu chi tap trung vio vide hoan hao hda mpt frong so dd ma qudn di nhirng bidn phip cdn lai thi se dan din sy phan tic dyng.
Dudi day chung ta se di tri ldi mdt sd cau hdi lidn quan din vide thiet lap cac bidn phap kidm soit v6n. Co nen chl dp dung klem sodt vdn khi ddl mgt vdl cdc dong vdn dugc du kien Id tgm thai hay khdng? Ostry vi cic ddng nghidp (2010) cd nhin manh ring kilm soit vi nhiing ly do kinh
td vi md chi nen sir dyng khi ddi mat vdi cic ddng vdn vio dupc cho la tam thdi, frdn co sd ty gii hdi doii se dieu chinh trudc nhiing cu sdc thudng xuydn (permanent shocks). Lidn quan ddn van dd than frpng, vide phan bidt cic ddng vdn tam thdi vi dii ban se khdng phu hpp vi chung deu gay ra nhirng nii ro vd dn dinh tai chinh - trdn thyc td, cic ddng vdn dai ban dupc cho li se rui ro han xet dudi gdc dp nd chinh la nhidn lieu cho cac cudc bimg nd gia tii san. Mdi quan tam chinh d day la sy tang ldn dot ngpt cic ddng vdn cd thd lan it pham vi didu chinh cua cac quy dinh thdng thudng nen cd thi tang cudng sii dyng hoac su dyng ea kidm soat vdn vi eac chinh sich than frpng dd nham chdng lai sy xoay vdng tin dyng - vi chung nen dupc ip dyng cho ddn khi cac ddng vdn dao ngupc hoac da dupc giim bdt. Mpt kha ning khac cd lidn quan den cac chinh sach gia va dd dang dupc ap dyng dd li td chiic bp may hanh chinh dn dinh de cd thd thi hanh chinh sich thud hoac ty Id dy frir khdng hudng lai suit (URR) ndu can, vi giim thidu thud suit niy (cd thd tdi muc bang 0) khi khdng can thidt.
Vdy klem sodt vdn nen dugc md rdng hay chl nhdm vdo cdc ddng vdn cd muc nil ro ldn han?
Didu niy phy thupc vao myc tidu mi kidm soit vdn nhim din. Khi nd dupc ap dyng vi cic ly do kinh tl vT md thi kidm soit ndn dupc ap dyng rdng rai vdi cac loai ddng vdn vao vi tdng cic ddng vdn vio gay ra cic van dd vd canh franh va ty gii hdi doai. Vdi cic van dd vd dn dinh tai chfnh thi kilm soat vdn cd the tap trung vao nhiing hinh thiic vdn vao nii ro hem (ndi chung la cac ddng ngan han, cic khoan np bang ngoai td, va mpt sd ddng chiing khoin). Tuy nhien, ciing cd mdt sy danh ddi ve hidu qua khi ap dyng kilm soat von trong pham vi hep vi ngay sau do sy gian lan, "lich luat" cd the xiy ra de dang ban thdng qua cac giao dich dupc mien thui hoac cic thi trudng phai sinh. "Idch ludt"? Cac giao dich khdng bj gidi ban Vdy ldm thi ndo de hgn che cdc giao dich NhOng vin di KINH it VA CHINH TRj TH^ Gidn So 3(203) 2013
Quan ly va dilu t^t cic dong von nuac ngoai. Nguydn Thj VQ Ha va cac giao dich tir do hoa tai khoan v6n thuang
dugc Igi dung nhim trdn tranh kidm soat vdn.
Nhimg ngudi khdng cu tru ban hang hda trong mQt nude cd the nhan dugc thu nhap bang ddng ban te va dau tu chung tai dia phuang, nhu vay ho cd the franh cac bien phap kiem soat Ien ddng vdn vio. Ndu eic bidn phap kidm soit chi ip dung vdi ddng vdn vio, hoic neu nhu giao dich chuydn tu ddng ngoai td sang dong ban td bi dinh thud thi doanh thu dau tu cd the dugc chuydn ra nude ngoai ma khdng phai chiu inh hudng ciia kidm soat vdn.
Do dau tu trgc tidp nude ngoai thdng thudng dugc xem Ii cd lgi ddi vdi ndn kinh te ndn nd thudng khdng bi kidm soat^. Nhung dieu niy lai t^o ra mpt su frdn trinh bing cich "dit tdn lai"
ddng vdn. Khi kiem soit cd pham vi hep (vi du:
chi vdi cic khoin ng), thi cic nhi dau tu nude ngoii cd the co ging tidp can thi trudng trong nude dudi hinh thiic cic ddng vdn vao dugc mien thue (vi du: diu tu vdn co phan). Mdt khi da tiep can dugc thi trudng frong nude, ho cd the mua eic cdng cu ng thdng qua mdt cdng ty dia phuang, hoic bin ed phan tai dia phuang va sii dung khoin thu dugc dd mua cdng eu ng - nhu vay hp cd the franh dugc kidm soat vdn.
(Tuy nhidn, it nhat ciing ed thd ngan chin eac td chuc diu tu ldn nd frinh kidm soit vdn bing vide gidi ban ngudn vdn cua cic nhi dau tu Idii dga vao he thdng phip luat frong nude dd thgc hidn cie quy dinh da dupc dd ra). Hoat ddng chuydn Ipi nhuan bang ngoai hdi vd nude cua nhiing ngudi cu tni ciing can dupc kiem soat nhim ngin chan gian lan thdng qua cac giao dich d nude ngoii giira nhiing ngudi cu tni va ngudi khdng cu tni. Mpt con dudng khic cho vide gian lan xiy ra dd la sir dung cac cdng cu thi trudng phii sinh tai cic ndn kinh td thi trudng mdi ndi, nai cd '' Xem bdo cio diirdng nien ctia IMF so 264 (2008): "Dinh
gii vk lgi Ich cua s^I toin cau hda tii chlnh" ve cic lgi Ich trung han ctia FDI doi vdi ting trudng kinh tl.
cae thi trudng phit tridn vi tinh thanh khoin cao. Mdt nhi diu tu nude ngoii mudn giao dich mdt sd lupng tii sin ndi dia nhat dinh ma khdng phii ddng thud thi cd thd mua mdt cdng cu phii sinh (do vay ddng vdn vio frong nude chi li phin ky quy cin thidt chu khdng phii li toan bp giao dich ma nhi diu tu mong mudn). Didu niy se lim giim doanh thu nhan dupc ndn cd the ndi kidm soit vdn di dat dupc muc tidu Ii giim tdng ddng vdn vao. Tuy nhidn, frong frudng hpp cic bdn ddi tic dia phuang cua giao djch phai sinh (vi du: mdt ngan hing dia phuang) ed ging tu bio hidm thi ngan hang niy se can mdt ddng vdn tuomg tg (nhung lite niy la ddng von giiia ngan hing dia phuang vi mdt ddi tie nude ngoii khic). Ndu nhu giao dich theo sau dd khdng bi danh thud thi vide su dung cic cdng cy phii sinh se tao didu kidn cho vide frinh nd cie bidn phap kidm soit ddng vdn vio'. Tuy nhidn, ndu giao dich dd bi dinh thue d muc tuomg tg vdi thue suit frdn ddng vdn vao ban dau thi eac ngin hang dia phuomg se phii tinh phi tuomg ung ddi vdi cic giao dich phii sinh, vi nhi diu tu nude ngoii phii ddi mit vdi mpt khoin phi tuomg ty nhu khoan thud anh ta phii fri frdn cdng cy gdc, khoin nay khac vdi khoin thud anh ta phii tri khi thyc hidn giao dich mua frdn thi trudng cic cdng cy phii sinh. Kinh nghidm cua Brazil vdi thud lOF la mdt bii hpc vd van de niy - gii dinh ring cac bidn phap thidt lap kidm soat khdng bao gdm mdt khoan thud danh frdn ddng vdn vio thi sd tao ra mdt lo hdng nghidm frpng vi lim giam hidu qui cua bidn phap dd; nhidu ndn kinh td thi trudng mdi ndi hidn khdng cd mdt thi trudng phii sinh rdng ldn, bdi vay it nhit didu niy ciing giup cic thi frudng npi dia khdng cd "dit" cho gian lan xiy ra.
' Luu y ring niu hoat ddng di vay ngan hing (nhu khoan vay bdi cic bac cha me hoic cic khoin ug cip) khong bj dinh thui thi dilu niy s5 gay ra so suit trong cic bi?n phip kilm soit vdn, Uiy nhien, khi ning cii thi^n so suit niy cua ngin hing c6 thi bj han che do quy djnh ve vj thi ngoai hoi md. Trong vl dy dugc kl din d diy, n^an hing d6ng vj thi ngofi hoi phii sinh ciia minh bang cich di vay tvr nude ngoii.
-Nh(rng vin di KINH T^ VA CHINH TRj THt Gl6n S6 3(203) 2013
Nguyin Thj VO Hi Quan ly vd dieu tilt cac dong von nude ngoai Tdm lai, kiem soat vdn cin dugc ap dung
gen pham vi rdng (rdng hon dg tinh) nhim giim thilu pham vi gian lan, "lach luat"; tuy nhien, neu ddng co gian lan vugt qua cai gia phdi tra thi hien tugng gian lan la khdng thi tranh khdi. Tai cac qudc gia cd thi trudng tai chinh phuc tap, viec thilt lap kilm soat vdn phii tinh din nhiSng lo hdng khi su dung cac cdng cu phii sinh. Cic bien phap hinh ehinh thudng tdn kdm chi phi do dd se cin dugc su d\mg bio dim hidu qui kilm soit vdn. Dilu quan trong li phii can nhic lgi ich cua vide ban chl cic hinh vi gian Ian vdi chi phi phai tra cho nhthig bidn phip niy, cic bidn phip niy khdng nhihig do cic ca quan cd thim quydn mi edn do cic ngan hing tao ra - didu mi thudng dugc su dung dl thgc hidn vide kilm soat.
Nen kiem sodt vi mat hdnh chinh (theo s6 lugng) hay theo gid?
Cd the kilm soat theo gii (nhu: ip dimg thui ho^c quy dinh URR hoic vl mat hinh chinh (theo sd lugng) - nhu gidi han muc cao nhit (vi dy: dua frdn vdn), cic ydu cau cip phep hoac cam hoan toin mdt sd ddng vdn^. Theo thuylt thuang mai, thidn hudng cua cac nhi kinh tl la:
mie du cd thi tim cic bidn phap kiem soit gii vi lugng tuang duomg nhau nhumg ho ua dung cic chinh sich kidm soit theo gii hom, vi cac chinh sich niy rd ring vi linh boat horn. Cac bidn phip vl gii de ding didu chinh theo chu ky ban va mpt so bidn phip gong dd de ap dyng hom, nhung khi cic nhi chuc trich ddi mit vdi thdng tin khdng doi xung vi khdng chic chan vd phin ung cua khu vgc tu nhan thi se rat khd dd didu chinh cic bidn phip vd gii mdt each phu hgp
* TrSn thvc tl, cic qu6c gia thudng ip dung dong thiri cic bi^n phip ve gii vi vl lugng. VI d\i, Colombia (2004), Nga (2004) vi Thii Lan (2008) di ip dung cic gidi han vl lugmg ciing vdi yfiu ciu du trQ- phi Iii suit. Mot s6 nude khic, nhu Trung Quoc vi An DO, di dly manh cic bi^n phip hinh chlnh nhim doi phd vdi su gia ting ddng vdn Uong thdi ky trudc khiing hoing, tuy nhien, khdng dll thiy dugc gi nhilu tir kinh nghiem ciia hai nude niy vl hg dlu di c6 mdt hf thdng hoin chinh cic hifn phip kilm soit vl lugng.
(Weitzman, 1974). Tmh Uang thdng tin khdng ddi xung thudng xay ra trong khu vgc tai chinh nai cac nha chuc trach khdng thi tilp can cic thdng tin ma nhimg ngudi cho vay dang nim giir, dd la thdng tin vd kha nang Ui ng ciia ngudi di vay. Bdi vay, quy tic ngdn tay cai (rule of thumb) cd thd li chinh sich vl gia thdng thudng dugc ua dimg hom, frong khi cac bidn phap hanh chinh (nhu gidi ban frdn mdt sd ddng vdn nhit dinh) cd thd se thich hgp hom cho cac myc tieu than frong, die bidt li khi chung dugc ip dyng frong ITnh vgc tai chinh (mien la chiing dugc ip dyng mdt cich minh bach vi tuan theo cic quy dinh phap luat).
Vdy cdn phucmg dn ndo khdc de cdn nhdc khdng? Ngoai cac phuomg an dugc dd cap d frdn, mdt ydu td quylt dinh thudng gap frong vide thidt lap kilm soat vdn dd la ndi Idng vide ip dat eic bidn phip hanh chinh khi thidt lap cic van dd vl thd chl qudc gia.
Cac bidn phip kidm soit phu hgp vdi thyc tien ed thd dugc bd sung mdt cich lidn tyc vi nhanh chdng, vi chiing ciing cd thd dugc ap dyng mdt each hidu qui ban, tir dd giiip han chl hidn tugng gian Ian. Trong mdt sd trUdng hgp khdng cin sir dyng cic cdng cy mdi dd kilm soat ddng vdn vao mi chi can ap dyng cic bidn phip cu mdt each hidu qui hom, vi dy nhu giam sat sy tuan thii cua cic ngan hang hoic day manh vide thi hanh chinh sich. Bdi vay, ning lyc hanh chinh la vd cung quan trong vi cac qudc gia ndn lua chgn cic bidn phap cd sire manh hanh chinh tuomg ddi.
Trdn thyc tl, cic dinh chl tai chinh se li nin tang dd thyc thi cac bidn phip kidm soat, vi can phai cd sy giim sit chit che nham dim bao sy tuan thu cac bidn phip niy. Ngoii ra, vide giim sat nay khic vdi boat ddng giim sit than trong thdng thudng, nd cd the dugc thgc hidn bdi Co quan giim sit, NHTW hoic ciing cd thd la cac ca quan thud. Vdi cac bidn phap kidm soat theo gii, sg lya chgn giira thud danh frdn ddng vdn vao va URR din ddn mdt van de khic can quan tam, dd la:
NhOng vin di KINH it VA CHINH TR| TH6 G\Cn So 3(203) 2013
Quan ly vd dilu tilt cdc dong v6n nu-dc ngoii. Nguyin Thj VO Hi vice thong qua mot khoan thue (hay thay doi
muc thud suit) co can phii c6 su ddng y cua quoc hoi hay khong, trong khi do viec ap dung hay sua ddi ty le du tru lai thudc tham quyen cua NHTW. Tuy nliien, do lugng tien gui sS dugc tri lai cho nhi diu tu sau khi hit han dg trii nen URR ddi hdi cin cd mdt sg kiem soit tuomg ddi phuc tap. Sg phuc tap niy tham chi cdn ting len khi URR dugc ip dung theo cic thdi han khic nhau, vdi cic ty le khic nhau, vi du nhu khi eic ty le URR vi thdi han dg trir dugc didu chinh thi cac ngan hing se phii duy tri mdt lugng dg trii theo eac cic ty Id quy dinh cho den ngiy hdt han dg trOr. Vide kidm soit thue dudng nhu de dang hom so vdi URR. Thue cd thd dugc ip dung ddi vdi cic giao dich gao doi ngoai hoi liy npi td. Sau dd, trir vide luu giii cic chumg tu dd tidn kidm soit vide tuan thu quy dinh ra thi khdng cin bd sung thdm nghidp vu nio khic. Cic Co quan thud cd thd li eic nhi mdi gidi gong cic giao dich chung khoin vi cic nghidp vu ky gui chiing khoin, hoic ciing cd thd la cac nha quin ly quy. Mpt didm luu y cudi cung ve mit hinh chinh dd li cic quy dinh qudc te cd the lim h^ chd vide su dimg kidm soit do tic ddng cua cic hidp udc da phuomg, song phuomg hoic cic thda thuin trong khu vgc.
Kiem soat von li mdt phan quan trpng trong gdi cdng cu chinh sich nhim kidm soit sg gia ting qua miic ddng vdn vio bdn canh cic chinh sich than gpng vi cac chinh sich kinh td vT md.
Dieu kidn tidn quydt dd ap dung kidm soat vdn dd li cic chinh sich kinh te vT md trong nude phii dupc thiet lap mdt cich hpp ly vi cac chinh sich than trpng khdng phan bidt trudc dd di dupc didu chinh ddn mdt miic dp phii hgp.
Dieu niy ydu ciu cin cd mdt ty gia hdi doai phu hpp vdi cac ndn tang vT md ca ban trung han da phuomg; eae ehinh sich tai khda va tien td phu hgp vdi sg can bing bdn trong vi sg dn dinh cua ng cdng trudc cic ddng vdn vio, vi cudi cung, cac khoin dg trii chinh thiic phii dupc thiet kd mdt each hop ly dga trdn co sd bao dim an ninh qudc gia. Khi cic didu kidn tidn quyet
vd kinh td vT md cho vide ip dung kiem soat vdn da dugc thda min mi cic bidn phip thin gpng lai khdng hidu qui thi kidm soit von cd thd dupc sii dimg nhim giim thieu cic nii ro lidn quan ddn sg gia ting cic ddng vdn vio.
Sg phdi hgp thich ding giira kidm soit vdn vi cie ehinh sich than gpng phu thupc vao cic kdnh dan ddng vdn vio ciia ndn kinh te vi cic nii ro do ddng vdn vao gay ra. Doi vdi cic nii ro bit ngudn tir hoat ddng di vay trgc tiep nude ngoai - gong dd cic ddng vdn cho vay chiy qua khu vgc tii chinh cd didu tidt - thi kidm soit vdn cd thd sd la cdng cu tdt nhat giiip ngin sg gia ting nii ro trong ciu tnic tii sin np bdn ngoii vi giim thidu cic nii ro tidn td cd lidn quan (gii dinh ring khdng thd thudng xuydn md rpng pham vi ip dung ciia cic cdng cu thin Upng theo mdt phuomg thiic hidu qui va kip thdi). Khi cic td chiic tii chinh cd didu tidt (RFIs) giiip luin chuydn cic ddng vdn thi vi?c cdc ngdn hdng di vay nude ngodi qud muc (ddc biet Id cdc khodn ng ngdn hgn), su tiep xiic tin dung vdi cdc khdch hdng vay khdng bdo hiem, rui ro tien t? trSn cdc bdng cdn ddi tdi sdn cua ngdn hdng vd cdc rui ro kinh ti tren dien rdng - can dupc tinh ddn khi thidt lap gdi cdng cu than gpng. Cic chinh sach can phii nham ddn mdt sd loai nii ro c\i the, tuy nhidn, vdi mdt loat cic thd chd rang bupc vi cic yeu td mang tinh qudc gia thi se cin ddn nhieu bidn phip ho gg khic nhau thay vi chi ip dung mdt bidn phip duy nhit vdi mdt phuomg thiic ban chd.
Khi thidt lap tung ydu td trong gdi cdng cu kidm soat vdn dd ddi phd vdi cic ddng vdn vao thi rat can tinh ddn sg dn dinh ciing nhu sg bien ddng cua ddng vdn vio. Vide thidt lap mdt thd chd cho phep cic bidn phip kiem soit thay ddi theo chu ky ciing cd thd li mdt bidn phip giiip giim thidu tic ddng cua cic vdng xoay bimg nd - phi sin. Kidm soit cd thd cin dugc md rpng khi cac vin dd kinh td vT md qui nghidm gpng, nhung nd ciing cd the bi thu hep vi chi nhim vao mdt ddng von nii ro nhit khi cic van de ve dn dinh tii chinh dupc uu tidn hon. Tai mpt sd -NhQng vin di KINH vA CH(NH TR! THt Gldl S6 3(203) 2013
Nguyin Thj VQ Hi Quan ly va dilu tiet cac dong v6n nu-ac ngoii.
qu6c gia co tiii truong tdi ciiinh qua phuc tap thi kilm soat v6n va cac cong cu tiian trong co thi dugc ket hgp voi nhau (trong do bao gom cac cong cu thi trucmg phai sinh) nhdm "lip diy"
cic lo hing trong nin kmh tl. Khi cin Iga chpn su dung cic bien phip vl gii hoic vl lugng, ngucri ta thucmg dung cic bien phap vl gia cho cic vin dl kinh tl vT mo, trong khi cic bien phip hinh chinh - hay cic bipn phap vl lugng - (bao gom viec cam mpt s6 dong von nhit dinh) thucmg dupc diing de giai quylt cic vin dl vl
on dinh tii chinh, dac biet la Uong khu vgc tii chinh. Tuy nhien, cic bien phip tai chinh cin phai ro ring vi dga gen luat phip nhim han chl hanh vi gian lan. Cuoi cung, nang Igc eua cic tl chuc cung phai dupc tinh din khi thilt lap kilm soat vin, bao gom ci trach nhiem Uong viec giii quyet cic nii ro vl In dinh tii chinh bit nguon tir cac dong von vio, ciing nhu bin chit cac rang bupc bat nguin tir cam kit eua qudc gia trong cac hiep uoc dau tu song phuang, hiep uac trong khu vgc va hiep uac quIc tl*
Tii lieu tham Ichao:
1. IMF (2011): Recent Experiences in Managing Capital Inflows—Cross-Cutting Themes and Possible Policy Framework, xem tai
http://www.imf.org/extemal/np/pp/eng/2011/02141 la.pdf
2. Jonathan D.Ostry, Atish R. Ghosh, Karl Harbermeier, Macros Chamon, Mahvash S. Qureshi Dennis B.S. Reinhardt; IMF - (2010): Capital Flows: The Role of Controls, http://www.imf org/extemal/pubs/ft/spn/2010/spnl 004.pdf
3. Jonathan D. Ostry, Atish R. Ghosh, Karl Habermeier, Luc Laeven, Marcos Chamon, Mahvash S. Qureshi, and Annamaria Kokenyne (2011): Managing Capital Inflows: What
Tools to Use? IMF STAFF DISCUSSION NOTE, xem tai http://www.imf org/extemal/pubs/ft/sdn/2011/sdnI I06.pdf
4. Masahlro Kawal, Shlnjl Takagl, A Survey of the Literature on Managing Capital Inflows, http://www. adbl. org/dlscusslon-paper/2008/03/2 7/2514. managing, capital. Inflows, lit survey/
5. Nguyen Vin ST (2006): Klem sodt ddng von nhdm on dinh vd phdt triin kinh ti Viet Nam trong qud trlnh hdi nhdp. http://www.hids.hochiminhcity.gov.vn
/Hoithao/phattrienbenvung/nguyenvansi. pdf
6. Nguyen Hong San (2005): Dieu tiet su dl chuyen cua ddng vdn tu nhdn gidn tlip nude ngodi d mdt sd nude dang phdt trien, NXB. Chinh tri Quoc gia
7. Nomura Research Institute (1996): Coping with Capital Flow In East Asia, Edited by C.H.Kwan, Donna Vanderbrink, Chiasiow Yue.
8. Vii QuIc Huy, Nguyen Thu Hang va Nguyen Hai Dang (2012): Ty gid hdi dodi glal dogn
2000 - 2011: Cdc nhdn td quyit djnh, muc do sal lech vd tdc dgng doi vdl xudt khdu, Bao cio nghien cuu RS - 01, Uy ban Kinh tl ciia QuIc hpi va UNDP tai Viet Nam.
NhOng vin di KINH vA CHfNH Tm TH^ Gl6r| So 3(203) 2013
