RUI RO TRONG NUOI TOM VEN BIEN CUA HO NONG DAN TINH NAM DINH
Nguyen Thj Minh Thu
Khoa Kinh ti vd Phdt triin Ndng thdn. Hoc viin Ndng nghiep Viet Nam Email: [email protected]
Tran Dinh Thao
Khoa Kinh ti vd Phdt triin Ndng thdn, Hgc viin Ndng nghiep Viet Nam
Ngaynhan: 12/6/2016 Ngay nhan ban sua: 15/7/2016 Ngay duyet dang: 25/7/2016
Tom tat:
Nam Dinh Id tinh cd diin tich nudi tdm ven biin l&n thie ba a miin Bac. Tuy nhiin, diin tich nudi tdm a Nam Dinh dd gidm 12,87%/ndm, ndng sudt gidm 19,85%/ndm trong ba nam qua. Hp nudi tdm da vd dang phdi ddi mat vdi riii ro sdn xudt, thi truang vd tdi chinh. Di qudn ly riii ro trong nudi tdm ven bien ciia hp ndng ddn tinh Nam Dinh cdn tdng cu&ng hiiu luc qudn ly cua Nhd nuac trong quy hogch viing nudi, ddng bp hi thdng ca sa hg tdng, ndng cao ndng luc ciia nguai nudi, td chuc sdn xudt theo quy chuan, kiim sodt chdt lugng ddu vdo - ddu ra, phdt triin thi tru&ng tdi chinh, bdo hiim ndng nghiep, thuc day liin kit trong sdn xudt - tiiu thu tdm, hinh thdnh chudi gid tri vai sdn phdm tom nuoi.
Tir khoa: Riii ro, nudi tdm, ndng dan, vimg ven bien.
Risks of shrimp farmers in Nam Dinh coastal areas Abtracts;
Nam Dinh is the coastal province which ranks third among the top shrimp farming provinces in Northern Vietnam. However, over three recent years, there has been a decline in shrimp farming area with 12.87% and 19.85% per year respectively. Farming households have been facing production, market and financial risks. The risks in shrimp farming in Nam Dinh coastal areas could be managed in various aspects, including enhancing the effectiveness of the state management in planning of the farming area, synchronization of the infrastructure, improving farmers' capacity, controlling input-output quality, developing financial market, agricultural insurance, promoting the linkage in production-consumption, and forming the value chain for the shrimp products.
Keyword: Risks, shrimp farming, farmer, coastal areas.
l . u a van e eiia nganh thuy san va da cd nhirng ddng gdp Idn cho Phat y i l n nhanh nudi teong thiiy san (NTTS) theo nln kinh tl. Hien Viet Nam la mdt trong nam qudc hudng cdng nghiep hda, hien dai hda, cd bieu qua, gia nudi tdm Idn tren thi gidi. Tuy nhien, nganh nudi siic canh teanh cao va phat teiln b i n vung; trd thanh tdm ed nguy co bi de dga nghiem tegng bdi diln nganh san xuat chu lyc cung cip nguyen lieu cho biln thdi tilt bit thudng, djch benh va biln ddng chl biln xuat khau va tieu dimg trong nude (Chinh gia... (Bd Ndng nghiep va Phat teiln Ndng thdn, phu, 2011). Tdm nudi ven bien la ddi tugng chii lyc 2016). Nam Dinb la mdt teong ba tinh nudi tdm Idn
eua miin BIC. Nhung nam gin day, nudi tdm ven biln tai Nam Dinb cUng phai ddi m?t vdi vd van khd khan: giam sat vimg nudi, quan teae, canh bao mdi tradng va dich benh; kilm soat chit lugng dau vao, dac biet la eon gidng; phat teiln eo sd ha tang vimg nudi, quy hoach va thilt kl dim nudi... Bai viet tap teiing lam rd nudi tdm ven biln eua hd ndng dan d Nam Dinh gap phai rui ro gi? Mirc do xuit bien ciia timg nii ro va thiet hai chung ra sao? Hudng di nao go thi bi cho nudi tdm ven biln ciia hd ndng dan Nam Dinh teong thdi gian tdi?
2. Cff s* ly thuygt va phuong phap nghien cifu Rui ro va khdng chic chin la nhung dac tinh cd bttu trong cudc sdng ciia ndng dan d cac nude dang phat triln (Trin Dinh Thao, 2010). Hardaker & cpng su (1997) va OECD (2009) cho ring: Rui ro la sy bilt khdng hoan hao vl kit qua cd kha nang xay ra va xac suit cua nd. Vi tbi, nii ro va khdng chac chan chi khac nhau d viec danh gia dugc hay khdng xac suit xay ra. Vi thi, khdng cd nii ro nao khdng ham chiia sy bit djnh; ac bit dinh diu phan anh va ngu y ve mdt loai riii ro nao dd.
Newbery & Stiglitz ter nam 1981 da phan nii ro theo tinh he thdng (trich theo OECD, 2009). Tilp do, Ngan bang Thi gidi (2000) da chia rui ro thanh 6 nhdm dya theo nguyen nhan riii ro va pham vi tac ddng tdi ddi tagng chju riii ro. Cach phan loai nay dugc xem la tdng quat va phii hgp vdi cae nude dang phat teiln. Nam 2008, Arthur da chia rui ro teong NTTS theo bilu hien: mim benh, an toan thyc phim - siic khde cdng ddng, sinh thai, di trayen, mdi teirdng, tai chinh, xa hdi. Tuy nhien, each phan chia nay xem nhe riii ro thi tradng anh hudng tryc tiep din kit qua va bieu qua nudi. OECD (2009) da phan rili ro thanh 4 nhdm theo dac thii cua san xuat ndng nghiep (nii ro san xuat, thj tradng, tai chinh va the chl chinh sach) ket hpp vdi tinh taong quan ciia riii
ro (nii ro vi md, trang gian va vT md). Can cii theo cac each phan loai neu tren cho thiy nudi torn ven biln tilm In nhilu nii ro. Nhung nii ro dd ed the gay anh hudng theo cac cip trong eiing mdt thai gian.
Nguyin Thi Minh Thu & Trln Dinb Thao (2016) cho ring quan ly nii ro teong nudi tdm ven bien la nhiing nd lyc dl nhan dien va quan ly cac van de ben trong va ben ngoai cua eac ndng trai nudi tdm ven biln ma nhiing vln dl dd se cd the anb hudng din kit qua, hieu qua va su thanh cdng hay that bai cua ndng teai. Chiln luge quan ly nii ro van dung cho nudi tdm ven biln cin: (i) Giam nii ro hudng tdi phdng tranh nii ro hay giam tin suit xuat bien ciia rili ro; (ii) Lam giam nhe tac ddng ciia nii ro hudng tdi chuyin giao rui ro hay lam giam bdt tac dpng xiu kbi nii ro xay ra; (iii) Khie phuc khi nii ro da xay ra dl hudng tdi sdm phuc bdi.
Bai vilt sii dung tilp can phan tich, danh gia tinh teang dl bi tdn thuang va kha nang ling phd vdi nii ro (NCNJ'ulnerability and Capacity Assessment and Analysis) kit hgp vdi phuong phap danh gia ed su tham gia (PKA_Participatory Rural Appraisal) vdi cac ben ed lien quan trong nudi tdm, phdng van theo bang hdi, hdi ciiu ta lieu va sd ghi chep cua hp nudi dl thu thap thdng tin phyc vy cho phan tich miic dp xuit bien va thiet bai ciia nii ro trong nudi tdm ven bien cua bd ndng dan.
Nghien cim chpn 3 buyen ven bien cua tinh Nam Djnh, mdi huyen chpn I xa ven bien, mdi xa dieu tra 40 hd nudi tdm theo quy md dien tich dam nudi.
Cac sd lieu sau kbi thu thap dugc kiem tea, tdng hgp va phan tich tren SPSS. Kit hgp giila phan tich bing thdng ke md ta, so sanh va bach toan kinb te de xac djnb tan xuat xuat hien cua riii ro theo quy md dam nudi, theo lugt ao nudi va muc dp thiet hai eua rili ro trong nudi tdm cua hd.
Bsing 1: Phan bo mau diSu tra
Huyen Xa/Thi tran So man
(hp nuoi) Ty le miu dieu tra Giao Thuy
Hai Hau NghTa Hung
03
Giao Phong Hai Chinh Rang Ddng
03
40 40 40 120
Quy md nhd (Dudi 7.000 mVhd): 50,00%
Quy md vira (7.000-15.000 m^/hp): 37,50%
Quy md Idti (Tren 15.000 mVhd): 12,50%
Ngudn: Tdng hgp dieu tra, 2015
Hinh 1: Dien tich nuoi trong thuy san Nam Dmh giai doan 2010-2014 2000° 15782 15794
DTNTTS DTtom
: « « « « DT man Ig
— — — - % DT torn trong DT man lg
3. Ket qua va thao luan ve riii ro trong nuoi torn ven bien cua ho ndng dan Nam Dinh
3.1. Xep hgng tdn sudt xudt Men vd muc dp thiet hgi cua rui ro trong nudi tdm ven bien Nam Binh Nam Dinh la dia phuang nudi tdm Idn d mien Bac, chi sau Quang Ninh va Thanh Hda. Toan tinh cd 15.840 ha NTTS, dien tich nudi man lo 6.376 ha, teong dd dien tich nudi tdm la 2.746 ha (Cue Thdng ke Nam Dinh, 2015).
Tai Nam Dinh, tdm dugc coi la ddi tagng nudi chil lye, nhieu hd da dau ta nudi tham canh/cdng nghiep thu dugc bieu qua kinh te cao, dac biet la tdm the chan trang. Tuy nhien, md rdng dien tich nudi khdng theo quy hoach, bien ddi khi hau va djch benh gia tang... da gay ra khdng it khd khan cho eac hd nudi tdm va ty tegng dien tich nudi tdm giam manh
Ngudn: Cue Thdng ke Nam Dinh, 2015
ta 59,52% (2010) xudng 43,07% (2014).
Md rdng quy md va thay ddi phuong thirc nudi tdm ven biln d Nam Djnh da tao ra budc phat trien vugt bac trong giai doan 2010-2012, dien hinh nang suat tdm the chan trang phd bien 8-12 tan/ha, 4-6,5 tan tdm sii/ha tay theo phuang thiic nudi; nhieu ao nudi tdm the da dat 15 tan/ha. Tuy nhien, sang nam 2013, nudi tdm bj chiing lai va suy giam bdi sy gia tang nii ro va mite do nghiem tegng cUa nil ro, nhat la djch benh. Ket qua nhan dien ban dau ve nii ro cho thay nudi tdm ven bien cua bd ndng dan Nam Dinh trong giai doan vira qua bj anh hudng bdi ca nii ro san xuat, tai chinh va thi tradng, trong dd djch benh teen tdm dugc cho la quan ngai nhat.
3.2. Mirc dp xudt hien rui ro trong nuoi tom ven Men cua hp ndng ddn Nam Binh
Bang 2: Xep hang tin suat xuat hien va mirc do thiet hai ciia riii ro trong nuoi t6m ven bien is Nam Djnh giai doan 2010-2015
Nguyen nhan riii ro Tan suat xuat hien (hay xuat hien nhat la 1)
Miic do nghiem trong (nghiem trong nhat la 1) Benh
Thilt bi ky thuat Con gidng Thdi tilt Ngudn nude Tbi tradng Tai chinh
Ngudn: Kit qud PRA vdi hp nudi, 2015
Bang 3: Ty le xuat hifn riii ro tren ao nudi tom theo quy md ho nam 2014-2015
Rui ro
1. Riii ro san xuat Con gidng Ngudn nude Thdi tiet Benh dich Thiet bi ky thuat 2. Rui ro thj trudng 3. Rui ro tai chinh
Ho quy mo nho (n = 278 lugt ao)
SL (ao)
230 208 194 202 26 106 172
TL (%)
82,73 74,82 69,78 72,66 9,35 38,13 61,87
Ho quy mo vii'a (n = 400 lugt ao)
SL (ao) 334 306 204 372 34 150 168
TL (%)
83,50 76,50 51,00 93,00 8,50 37,50 42,00
Ho quy mo Idn (n = 232 lugt ao)
SL (ao)
86 142 150 162 8 74 46
TL (%) 37,07 61,21 64,66 69,83 3,45 31,90 19,83
Chung (n = 910 lugt ao)
SL (ao)
650 656 548 736 68 330 386
TL (%) 71,43 72,09 60,22 80,88 7,47 36,26 42,42
Tdm la ddng vat bien nhiet nen nudi tdm cd nhilu khac biet: (i) Rit nhay cam vdi mdi hordng ben ngoai; (ii) Khdng cd vie-xin phdng benh; (iii) Nudi chil yeu d vimg ven bien nen chiu anh hudng manh eiia bien ddi khi hau. Theo doi rili ro xuit hien teen cae ao nudi ciia bd (Bang 3) cho thiy:
3.2.1. Ddi vai rui ro sdn xudt
Quy md nudi d cac nhdm hd khac nhau da cd sy khac biet ve ty le xuat hien nii ro tren ao nudi: diln hinb la nii ro ve con gidng xuit hien tren 80% sd ao nudi d nhdm hd quy md nhd va vira; nhung d nhdm bd quy md Idn ty le nay chi la 37,07%. Khi tha tdm, ngudi nudi phd biln su dung thir sdc do man kit hpp vdi danh gia cam quan va theo ddi hao hut con gidng trong 1 -2 tain diu dl danh gia. Thyc tl, ngudi nudi hoan toan chi bilt thiing gidng mua da dugc
Ngudn: Tdng hgp sd theo doi ao nudi, 2015
dan nhan kiem djnh. Ngoai ra, tai viing nudi khdng cd don vi nao diing ra kiem soat chat lugng gidng.
Do dd, can tang cudng quan ly chat che kilm djnh tdm gidng tir khau san xuit den cung img. Trong vimg nudi, cimg vdi boat ddng cung itng tdm gidng ta- cac cdng ty cd thuong hieu nhu UV, CP... vln tdn tai ludng tdm gidng trdi ndi khdng nhan mac vdi gia chi bing 20-30% tdm gidng eua cdng ty. Ciing liic cd qua nhieu bien ddng ve chit lugng nude, thiie an, thudc, hda chit, thdi tilt, ve sinh ao nudi... va diln bien benh djch gia tang nen khd xac dinh chinh xac nguyen nhan gay nii ro. Do do, da sd hd nudi van cho rang eon gidng la mdi nghi ngai Idn.
Trong tdng sd 97,5% sd hd nudi mua tdm gidng ciia edng ty, chi cd 4,3% sd hp din mua tryc tilp tdm gidng tai cdng ty va hg cung chinb la eac dai ly cung Hinh 2: Muc do tin tudng cua ho nuoi vao chit luong torn gilng
BHoan toan tin tifong DMuo' mo'i bi§t D Khong tin tu'ong
Ngudn: Tdng hgp diiu tra, 2015
uyg gidng teong vimg. Hoat ddng mua tdm gidng deu phai dat epe va khi nhan gidng phai tra het tien.
Dieu dd bdc Id tinh dpc quyln teong cung tog gidng va eac hd nudi tdm cd nhilu nghi ngai ve chat lugng con gidng la cd ly do.
Ve rui ro ngudn nu&c, ty le ao nudi gap nii ro ve ngudn nude trong nudi tdm khdng ed sy khac biet giua 3 nhdm hd, thap nhat la hd nudi quy md Idn (61,21% trong tdng sd ao nudi). Do tan dyng tdi da dien tich dua vao nudi nen da sd cac hd chua thilt kl ddng bd be thdng ao teong dim nudi. Chi ed 26,67%
sd bd nudi quy md Idn thiet ke ddng bd "ao ling - ao nudi - ao xu ly chit thai", ty le nay nlu tinh cho tdng the chi chilm 3,33% sd hd nudi. Ty le hd chi thiet ke ao lang chiem 62,5% trong tdng sd bd. Nudi ngoai vimg quy hoach deu sir dyng chung kenh cip va thoat nen khi hd nay xa nude ra thi hd khac lai lay nude vao. 100% sd bd nudi khdng dam bao vl quy hoach ao lang 20-25% va ao xu ly nude thai, chat thai 20-25% dien tich dam theo quy djnh eiia Nha nude. Ro rang, quan ly quy hoach vimg nudi tdm khdng chat che, thyc hien thilt kl he thdng ao dam nudi cua hd khdng dam bao va khdng kilm soat dugc phat thai trong nudi tdm ciing la nguyen nhan lam gia tang riii ro. Phan tich nii ro ta ngudn nude da cho thay vdng luan quan cua rili ro dich benh teong nudi tdm tai day. Vi the, can thiet phai ra soat lai quy hoach vimg nudi, dam nudi hudng tdi quan ly ngudn nude, dac biet la nude thai va bun thai ta
ao nudi; ddng thdi, khuyen khich phat trien cac cdng nghe nudi phii hgp nhu: nudi khep kin, tai su dung nude, sii dung thuc an ty nhien de giam phat thai...
Vi rili ro thai tiet, sy khac nhiet cua thdi tiet va thien tai da anh hudng de qua trinh sinh tradng va phat trien ciia tdm. Cd tdi 60,22% sd lugt ao nudi dugc cho rang bi nii ro bdi thdi tiet. Tuy tinh chat bat thudng cua thdi tiet va sy kjp thdi fag phd eiia hd nudi ma miic thiet bai se khac nhau. Thdi tiet dien bien bat thudng se gay ra eac rui ro khac tren tdm, dac biet la benh tren tdm. Do do, thay ddi cdng nghe nudi hudng tdi giam bdt tac ddng bat lgi cua thdi tiet nhu ucm nudi giai doan tdm nhd, thiet ke ao nudi cd mai che, giam mat do tha gidng, tao dyng he thirc an ty nhien... can dugc quan tam de giam bdt tac ddng bat lgi ta mdi tradng ben ngoai tdi tdm nudi. Ben canh dd, can thue day ca che bao hiem ndng nghiep teong chia se nii ro thien tai vdi cac co sd nudi tdm.
Dich binh trin tdm la van de quan ngai Idn nhat cua ndng dan trong qua teinh nudi. Cac benh dudi day deu cd kha nang lay lan tao thanh dich (Bd Ndng nghiep va Phat trien Ndng thdn, 2016). Dich benh dugc xep vao rui ro vT md bdi kha nang lay lan va mite do thiet hai.
Thii nhat, benh hoai ta gan tuy cip tinh, 76,67%
sd hd nudi tdm gap phai. Benh nay phd biln d giai doan tdm 14-42 ngay tadi va ty le tdm chit din 70%.
Tiep theo, ddm teang do than la benh rit nguy cip;
Bfnh
Hoai te gan tuy cap Ddm tring do than Phan trang Ddm den Hdi chimg Taura (Dd dudi) Hoai te ca Tdm cham Idn
Bang 4 1: Benh pi Quy mo nho
(n=60) SL (ho)
49 45 37 29 23 15 22
CC (%) 81,67 75,00 61,67 48,33 38,33 25,00 36,67
10 bien tren torn ciia ho nuoi nam 2014-2015 Quy mo vira
(n=45) SL (ho)
32 29 32 17 14 21 13
CC (%) 71,11 64,44 71,11 37,78 31,11 46,67 28,89
Quy mo Ion (n=15) SL (ho)
11 5 8 13
9 9 5
CC (%) 73,33 33,33 53,33 86,67 60,00 60,00 33,33
Chung (n=120) SL (ho)
92 79 77 59 46 45 40
CC (%) 76,67 65,83 64,17 49,17 38,33 37,50 33,33 Ngudn: Tdng hgp diiu tra, 2015
Hinh 3: Ty le chit khi torn mic cac benh thuoc nhom djch benh
Hoai tu gan tuy c i p lAHPNS AHPND)
Hoailu CO iil.'lJVl 80%
5 o n trang cof^a":
im%
-.a-lr3-g(V'/FSi
(*) EHP tuy khdng gay chit nhung tdm cham lan vd tdng he sd tieu tdn thitc dn Ngudn: Tdng hgp dieu tra, 2015
ca biet tdm cd the chet den 100% chi sau 1-3 ngay tdm bieu hien benh khien ngudi nudi khd xoay xd kjp. Phan teang la benh phd bien thit ba; phan trang khdng gay chet hang loat nhung neu chiia tri dugc tdm se cham Idn, gay tieu tdn thiic an, khien cho ngudi nudi tdm phai ban non. Thir ta la benh ddm den, thudng mac vao giai doan tdm ta 25-45 ngay tadi va ty le tdm chet cd the len tdi 80-90% chi sau hai taan mac benh. Vi the, khi nudi tdm can dac biet quan tam den giai doan tdm ta taan nudi thir 3-8 teong lira nudi. Bdi day la giai doan tdm rat nhay cam vdi benh.
Ben canh do, bdi chfag taura (dd dudi), hoai ta CO va cham Idn do vi bao ta triing... tuy khdng gay chet hang loat nhung lam tang chi phi nudi va giam nang suat, dac biet tdm cham Idn do vi bao ta triing ehua cd phac dd khdng che.
Nguyen nhan gay djch benh tren tdm nudi dugc cho la tdng hgp tir cac nii ro khac trong san xuit nhu con gidng, nude, thdi tilt, con ngudi... Them vao dd: (i) Tdm yeu thudng sdng d ting day nen khd phat hien sdm; (ii) Mim benh lay lan nhanh do: quat nude, khdng the tach tdm ylu va tdm chit ra khdi ao, tdm khde an thjt tdm chit...; (iii) Site dl khang kem do tdm la ddng vat bac thip, khdng cd he miin dich dac hieu; (iv) Thudc khd vao dugc tdm benh, bdi tdm benh bd an va chi tdm khde, tdm ehdm benh mdi an thirc an ed thudc; (v) Khi tdm nhilm benh, eac mim benh khac cilng nhan co hdi ddng lo?t tin cdng khien tdm ylu rit nhanh va dl chit. Vi the, taan thii quy hoach vimg nudi, thilt kl ao dim, quy teinh xu ly ngudn nude, ve sinh ao, theo ddi dd
man, PH, khi teen ao, tang cudng sii dyng vitamin va khoang chat de phdng benh tren tdm... se gdp phan ban che benh va tranh bimg phat thanh djch.
Ddng thdi, de kiem soat djch benh teen tdm dugc tdt, vai trd cda Nha nude trong quan ly thj tradng dau vao (gidng, thudc, thitc an...), quy hoach vimg nudi, tang cudng nang lyc cho ndng dan thdng qua khuyen ndng khuyen ngu va thuc day lien ket la rat quan trgng.
3.2.2. Rui ro tdi chinh
Nguyen nhan tryc tiep lam phat sinh nii ro tai chinh la do tiep can vay vdn, lai suit cao. 100% sd hd nudi tdm deu da tiep can dugc tin dung thuong mai chinh thdng, song lugng vdn vay chua dap ling dugc miic dp dau ta. Mdt nghich ly la dim nudi cila cac hd gia trj hang ty ddng nhung khdng dugc chap nhan the chap. Vi thi, lugng vay phd biln chi 100- 200 trieu ddng/lugt neu cd thi chip, song con sd do la qua nhd so vdi dau ta nudi tdm. Tai thdi diem 2015, chi cd 29,17% sd hd nudi kit hgp sir dung vay phi chinh thdng de diu ta. Vay phi chinb thdng gap phai hai can ted Idn dd la: dam bao tin cay mdi vay dugc va lai vay rat cao khiln cac hd nudi khdng dam tiep can. 86,67% sd hg nudi tdm d day danh gia mirc do tiep can tin dung ta khd ted len.
Ty le ao nudi gap phai nii ro tai chinh d cac quy md hd ta nhd tdi Idn lin lugt la 61,87%, 42% va
19,83%. Do vay, trudc khi nudi bd nen tinh toan ky cang, dy trii kha nang tai chinh va kilm soat tdt mdi trudng ao nudi, con gidng, vat ta va lya chgn phuong thitc nudi de giam thieu rui ro tai chinh trong qua trinh nudi tha. Nha nude nen tang cudng kha nang
Hinh 4: Bien dong gia diu vao - diu ra trong nuoi torn the
180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
160
30,5 30,2 30,5 31
vlj 1 vy 2 vu 1 vij 2 vy 1 VIJ 2
2013 2014 2015
^ T h e CO 80 con/kg (1000d/kg) —•»— Gi6ng the ((36ng/con)
«•• Thi>cant6mthe(1D00(J/kg) Linear (The ca 80 con/kg (lOOOd/kg))
tiep can ngudn tin dung chinb thdng cho cac hd nudi thdng qua chap nhan the chap ao dam.
3.2.3. Rui ro thi truang
Rui ro thj trudng dugc danh gia la it xuat bien nhat teong nudi tdm d Nam Djnh. Theo ddi bien ddng gia tdm thuang pham, gidng va thirc an chan nudi teen tdm the va tdm sii qua 3 nam cho thay: nudi tdm the dugc Igi hon so vdi nudi tdm sii. Kbi gia tdm sii giam 12%, gia tdm su gidng tang 80%, gia cam tdm su giam 9,34% thi gia tdm the tang 7,14%, gia tdm the gidng tang 24,44% va gia cam tdm the tang 1,64%. Nudi tham canh, chi phi thiic an ebilm 50- 60% trong tdng chi phi nudi va dd la ly do khiln tdm
Ngudn: Tdng hgp dieu tra, 2015
the trd thanh con nudi chil dao trong viing.
Trong vung, thiic an cho tdm chu yeu dugc cung fag bdi cac cdng ty nhu: Grobest, Cargill, Thang Long, CJ Master... O cac xa deu cd eac hd nudi Idn d f a g ra lam dai ly gidng, thire an, thudc va hda chat.
Do dd, can tang cudng quan ly nha nude trong kinh doanh dau vao phuc vu nudi tdm. Chenh lech Idn giua phuong thirc thanh toan tra ngay va tea cham teong mua vat tu da lam tang gia thanh nudi. Gia tdm thuong pham phu thudc bdi: kich eo tdm (sd eon teen mdt kg) va tbiri diem xuat ban... 100% cac hd nudi ban tdm tai dam va dugc tra tien ngay. Tuy nhien, bd nudi van phai ddi mat vdi bien ddng, chenh lech Hinh 5: Biln dong gia dau vao - dau ra trong nuoi torn sii
300 250 200 150 100 50 0
80 3 ^
-• -90 37,5
95
37,5
VIJ 1 vu 2 VII 1 vi^ 2 vij 1 VU 2
2013 2014 2015
^ ^ S i j 40 con (1000a/kg) — • - Gi6ng su (dong/con) Thijcantom sij (1D00<J6ng/kg) Linear (Sij 40 con (1000d/kg))
Ngudn: Tdng hgp diiu tra, 2015
Hinh 6: Kho khan trong tieu thu gay thiet hai nang nhat cho ho nuoi nam 2015
Bi epgia Bj epc6'(ep cap)
Gia bien dpng that thLPorg
Tre hen den mua
• • • < V u l [SSSVu2
gia giil'a cac viing nudi va mirc do quan ngai ve chat lugng dau vao ngay cang tang, bj ep gia tdm khi trong viing cd djch benh.
Tdm thuong pham cda Nam Dinh dugc ban qua thuong lai teong va ngoai tinh ra thj tradng d dang taoi sdng, chua ed ben ket theo chudi san pham che bien. Vi the, de giam thieu thiet hai vl thj tradng, tai day can thiet lap lien ket giila hd nudi vdi doanh nghiep cung fag dau vao va bao tieu dau ra hudng tdi san xuat - che bien - xuat khau san pham tdm.
- C h u n g cac vij trong nam
Ngudn: Tdng hgp diiu tra, 2015
Ket qua phan tich Idng ghep giUa cac nii ro cho thiy thiet hai bd nudi tdm gap phai cd xu hudng gia tang trong thdi gian vita qua.
3.3. Thiet hgi cua rui ro trong nudi tom ven Men cua hd ndng ddn
Vi sd lugng, nang suat tdm dugc su dung lam thudc do tdng hgp ve sd lugng san pham dat dugc sau thiet hai cua rili ro, dac biet la nii ro san xuit.
Binh quan giai doan 2012-2015, tdc do giam nang suat tdm the cua bd tinh theo dien tich thuc nudi Hinh 7: Nang suat torn the chan tring ciia ho nong dan giai doan 2012-2015
12
10,1 9,7
6,5
2012 2013 2014 2015
Nam
i Theo dien tich nuoi tha - - - Theo tdng dien tich akm
GM chit: Tdng dien tich ddm = Dim tich nudi thd + Dien tich ao xit ly nude, chdt thdi vd ddt luu khdng Ngudn: Tdng hgp sd lieu cita 80 hp nudi
Sd 229(11) thdng 7/2016
Bang 5: Ty le lo lai trong nuoi torn ven bien ciia ho nong dan nam 2015 Mirc do so voi
tdng chi phi Dudi 10%
1 0 - 2 5 % 26 - 50%
5 1 - 7 5 % Tren 75%
Tdng
Lo (n S6 luong (ho)
11 13 5 1 2 32
= 32) Ty le (%)
34,38 40,63 15,63 3,13 6,25 26,67
Lai (n So luong (ho)
5 47 31 5 0 88
= 88) Ty le (%)
5,68 53,41 35,23 5,68 0,00 73,33
va dien tich toan dam lan lugt la 11,97%/nam va 19,85%/nam. Dieu dd cho thay sy sut giam manh ve nang suat teong nudi tdm ven bien ciia bd. Nlu nam 2012 dugc xem la nam nudi tbuan lgi ciia hd, nang suat tinh theo dien tich thyc nudi nam 2015 da giam 31,78% so vdi nam 2012 va giam 48,51% vdi nang suat tinh theo dien tich ca dim. Chenh lech giiia nang suat tinh theo dien tich thyc nudi va nang suat tinh theo dien tich ca dam tang theo thdi gian.
Dieu dd chfag td cac hd nudi tdm vita thiet bai bdi sut giam nang suat san pham, vira thiet hai bdi giam sd lugng ao dua vao khai thac (bay ggi la treo ao).
Vi gid tri, thiet bai cua nii ro trong nudi tdm ven bien dugc the hien tich hgp theo ket qua Id - lai eiia cac hg nudi so vdi tdng chi phi nudi ciia bd bd ra.
Nam 2015 cd 26,67% sd hd nudi tdm bi thua Id, 75% teong sd dd bj thit thoat 25% tdng chi phi nudi trd xudng. Theo ddi tren 910 lugt ao nudi cho thay:
34,07% bj thua Id, 21,32% bj mit tring. Tuy nhien, vin ed tren 70% sd hd nudi dat lai va muc lai phd biln ta 10-50% so vdi tdng chi phi nudi. Rd rang, nudi tdm ven biln la boat ddng mang tinh bat dn cao, song lgi nhuan ciia nd cd siic Idi eudn trong diu ta (chi ed 2,5% sd bd dfag nudi, 22,5% sd hd giam khai thac ao va 100% giam mat do tha gidng).
Dilu dd chfag td cac hd nudi tdm cd dac tinh chju nil ro cao.
3.4. Biin phdp ieng phd v&i rui ro trong nudi tdm ven biin
Trudc tinh trang riii ro xay ra lien tuc va gay thiet bai teong nam 2014-2015, hd nudi tdm ven bien da phdi hgp linh boat cae bien phap fag phd theo chiln luac giam nil ro (Risk Reduce), giam tac ddng eiia rui ro (Risk Mitigation) va khac phyc nii ro (Risk Coping) dl duy tei boat ddng nudi tdm ciia hd.
Ghi chit: Hp nudi hach todn ddy dit Ngudn: Tdng hgp dieu tra, 2015
De giam sy xuat bien eiia riii ro, eai tao ao dam, bgc bdi kinh nghiem va sir dung thudc phdng benh da dugc 80-100% sd hd nudi van dyng. Tuy nhien, trong sir dung thudc de phdng berth cho tdm, ngoai cung cap vitamin va khoang chat, van cd 3) ,6% sd hd dinh ky sir dyng khang sinh de phdng benh tren tdm. Dieu dd la vd eiing nguy hai cho boat dgng nudi tdm va lai lam tang riii ro trong nudi tdm. Ngoai ra, giam sd ao nudi chuyen sang lam ao lang, eai tao ky ao, tang cufag xu ly nude phuc vy ao nudi, giam mat do tha, phan tan liia nudi, ap dung cdng nghe nudi biofloc de tang cufag thirc an ty nhien, ap dung cdng nghe nudi dao ao 30 ngay/lan, sit dung tdi va la di... de phdng benh tren tdm da dugc mdt sd hd thir nghiem va budc dau da mang lai kit qua kha quan.
De giam tac ddng eiia rui ro, chu yeu cae bd da chia nhd ao de phan tan lira nudi, ctog hd trg nhau ve lao ddng va thdng tin trong nudi tdm (75,83- 89,17% sd hd). Hoat ddng dau ta chung ha ting cho vfag nudi, binh thanh td nhdm nudi tdm giQa cac hd va da dang hda thu nhap it dugc cac bd quan tam (5-44,17% sd bd). Diln hinh, tai viing nudi eiia ndng trafag Bach Long, cac hd dan da manh dan chuyen sang nudi tdm ghep ca (rd phi, dieu hdng, tram, chep); bay tai viing nudi d Rang Ddng, eac hd da manh dan ghep tdm vdi ea bdp... Bien phap nay dugc cac hd ap dung danh gia la "tha choi an that":
mat do tdm tha thua, sau dd xen ca vao, ca se giai quyet chat thai, tbfa an thira cua tdm va tdm ylu. Do dd, mdi trafag ao nudi sach, tdm nhanh Ifa, kich cd to nen tdm rit dugc gia. Vi tbi, nudi xen/ghep tdm vdi eac thuy san khac dang dugc cac hd nudi tdm quan tam thir nghiem rdng rai.
Khac phuc khi riii ro xdy ra dugc cac hd ap dung la: tap trang lao ddng dl don dep ao dim, vay tin
dung (100%), diu to nudi lai (89,17%) va uu tien D I giam thieu thiet bai trong nudi tdm ven biln chi tieu cho nudi tdm (59,17%). Cac fag phd mang ciia hp ndng dan va phat triln b i n v f a g hoat ddng tinh chil ddng nhu dy trii diu vao it dugc hd lya nudi tdm ven bien tai Nam Dinh, can cd sy phdi chpn bdi su khan kilm v l tai chinb. hgp ddng bd giQa cac co quan quan ly nha nude, thi 4. Kit luan trafag, cae co sd nudi h u f a g tdi: tang cufag hieu Trong nudi tdm ven biln, eac hd nudi quan ngai lv«= quan ly cua Nha nude teong quy hoach vitng nhit la rill ro san xuit, dac biet la dich benh (80% "udi, ddng bd he thdng ca sd ha tang, nang cao nang sd ao nudi bi mic benh). Rui ro tai chinh va riii ro Ivrc ctia ngudi nudi, td chfa san xuat theo quy chuan, thj tirrfag cung tdn tai nhung miic do quan ngai ciia kilm soat chit lugng dau vao - dau ra, phat teiln thj cac hd nudi vdi nbfag nii ro nay thip hon. Tinh Idng tiirfag tai chinb, bao hiem ndng nghiep, thiic diy ghep eiia eac rui ro teong nudi tdm ven biln da lam lien kit trong san xuit - tieu thy tdm, binh thanh gia tang thiet hai ddi vdi hd va cdng ddng nudi. chudi gia tri vdi san pham tdm nudi Nam Dinh.
Tai lieu tham khao
Arthur J. Richard (2008), 'General Principles of the risk analysis process and its application to aquaculture'. Under- standing and applying risk analysis in aquaculture, FAO, paper 519, p3-9.
Bg Nong nghiep va Phat trien Nong thon (2016), ATe hogch qudc gia gidm sdt dich benh tren tdm vd cd tra phuc vu xudt khdu giai dogn 2017 - 2020, Ha Noi.
Chinh phu (2011), Quyet dinh 332/QD-TTgphe duyet De an phdt trien nudi trdng thity sdn den 2020, ban hanh ngay 03 thang 3 nam 2011.
Cue Thing ke Nam Dinh (2015), Nien gidm thing ke tinh Nam Dinh 2014, Nha xuit ban Thing ke, Ha Noi.
Hardaker J. Brian, Huime B.M. Ruud & Anderson R. Jock (1997), Coping with risk in agrieultute, CAB Intemational, 4-8.
OECD (2009), Managing Risk in Agriculture: A Holistic Approach, Paris.
Nguyin Thi Minh Thu & Trin Dinh Thao (2016), Tdng quan vi qudn ly rui ro trong ndng nghiep: Van dung cho nuoi tom ven bien, tai lieu chua xuit ban da dugc sir ding y cua tac gia, Khoa Kinh tl va Phat triln Ndng thon - Hgc vien Nong nghiep Viet Nam.
Tran Dinh Thao (2010), Nghien cim chinh sdch qudn ly rui ro trong ngdnh chan nudi lan a Viet Nam, Bao cao ting kk de tai cip bg, Bg Nong nghiep va Phat triln Nong thon.
World Bank (2000), Dynamic Risk Management and the Poor: Developing a Social Protection Strategy for Africa, Human Development Group, Africa Region, Worid Bank, Washington, DC.
