Nguyen Thi Oanh, Le Thi H5ng Nga. Quan he An Do - Sri Lanka^
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Quan he An Do - Sri Lanka duoi thoi Thu tu-ong Narendra Modi^
Nguyen Thi Oanh'', Le Thi Hang Nga*''
' Vien Nghien ciru An Do vd Tdy Nam A, NCS. Dgi hoc Khoa hgc XS hgi va Nhdn van Ha Ngi;
" Vien Nghien cuu An Do vd Tdy Nam A
Ngdy nhgn bdi: 28/8/2019. ngciy gid phan bien: 10/12/2019. ngdy duyet dang: 10/01/2020
r
ic khi Thil tuang Narendra Modi len ndm quyen a An Do vdo ndm 2014, quan he An Do - Sri Lanka da cd nhimg buoc phdt trien m&i Bdng viec lira chon Sri Lanka Id diem den cho chuyen cong du nu&c ngodi ddu tien cita minh. Thit tu&ng Modi tr& thdnh Thit tuang ddu tien ciia An Do thdm qude ddo Sri Lanka trong 28 ndm Bdi viet tap trung ldm ro thue trang quan hi An Do - Sri Lanka dicdi thai Thit tu&ng Narendra Modi trong cdc linh vuc chinh tn - ngogi giao, kinh te vd an ninh - quoc phdng. Tren ca s& do, bdi viit khdng dinh mot sd thdnh tuu noi bat trong quan he An Do - Sri Lanka, ddng thai chi ra nhieng thdch thicc tiep tuc Id rao cdn trong viic thuc ddy quan he hai nu&c len nhung lain cao m&i.Tir khda: Hgp tac song phuang, Narendra Modi, quan he An Dp - Sri Lanka
M d d a u
0 Nam A, An Dp va Sri Lanka da duy tri nen dan chii nghi vien tir khi gianh dugc ddc lap.
Trong khi An Do dugc xem la '^nen ddn ehii l&n nhdt" a khu vyc Nam A, thi cac thg chg dan chii cung dugc thanh lap d Sri Lanka. Quan he ciia An Dp vdi Sri Lanka dugc xac dinh bdi yeu to dja ly, di san ciia chg dp thuc dan Anh, su lien ket dia chinh tri cijng nhir quan he kinh te va quan he cap ca nhan gida lanh dao hai nirdc. Mdi quan he giQa An Dp va Sri Lanka da keo dai hon 2.500 nam (Government of India, 2017) dya tren nhung kgt ndi ve van minh, van hda, tdn giao va ngdn ngii. Trong ljch sir, mdi quan he hai nudc dugc thira ke til' thai thudc dia khi An Do va Sri Lanka deu bj cudn vao cudc xung dot va canh tranh quygn lyc giua cac nudc Idn ben ngoai khu vyc la B6 Dao Nha, Ha Lan va Anh. Tir nam 2014 den nay. An Do dudi thdi Thii tudng N. Modi da co nhiing dieu chinh quan trong trong chinh sach ddi vdi Sri Lanka, khign quan he hai nudc co nhirng phat trign mdi theo chigu hudng dn dinh va ben chat hon.
' B^i via la kSt qua cua DS tai nghien ciru ducrc tai trg boi QuJ Phat trien Khoa hoc va Cong nghe Qu6c gia (NAFOSTED), ma s6 601.02 - 2018.300.
Nghien ciru An Do va Chau A. S6 2 - 2020, tr.l8-28
Nguygn Thj Oanh, Le Thi Hang Nga. Quan hi An Dd - Sri Lanka...
1. Thu'c trang q u a n he An Do - Sri L a n k a d u d i thdi Thu t u o n g N. M o d i LL Chi'nh tri- ngoai giao
La mdt qudc gia ndi Ign tir cudc ndi chign keo dai gan hai thap nien va phai doi mat vdi cac cao bupc vg van de nhan quygn nen chinh trj ngi bd va quan he qudc te ciia Sri Lanka mang nang tfnh dia chinh tri vdi cac nudc Idn ben ngoai cd Igi fch lien quan den Colombo. Quan he chfnh tri - ngoai giao ciia An Do va Sri Lanka khdng nam ngoai khudn kho nay.
Sy gan gui ve dia ly va dac biet la sy gan gui ve van hda giua An Do va Sri Lanka khien An Do trd thanh cudng qudc bgn ngoai cd anh hudng nhdt trong chinh tri Sri Lanka va tir lau, Sri Lanka da d trong quy dao dia chfnh trj ciia An Do (Sudha Ramachandran, 2015). Khi An Do bj ap birc thi Sri Lanka cQng khdng ngoai le (ca hai nudc dgu tiing la thugc dia ciia Anh va Ha Lan); khi An Do gianh dugc dpc lap (nam 1947) thi khdng lau sau, Sri Lanka ci5ng gianh dugc tu do (nam 1948). Tuong ty nhu vay, ngay nay, khi An Dp dang trd thanh chii the quan trpng trgn thg gidi thi Sri Lanka ciing trd thanh nhan td quan trgng trong "'cuge chai l&n" (great game) d An Dp Duong.
Tir nam 2014 dgn nay, vdi chfnh sach ddi ngoai lang gieng Id mt tien sd mot ciia An Dp va chinh sach tdi cdn bdng ciia Sri Lanka, quan he chfnh tri - ngoai giao hai nudc cd nhieu chuygn bien tfch cyc vdi bude phat trign mdi, dugc danh dau bang cac chuyen tham cap cao deu dan ciia hai nudc. Dudi thdi Thii tu'dng Modi va Tdng thong Sirisena, Tdng thong Sirisena da co 4 chuygn tham An Do, lan thu nhat vao thang 2/2015 (trong chuyen cdng du nudc ngoai dau tign sau khi dac cu Tdng thong), lan thu hai vao thang 5/2016, lan thii ba vao thang 8/2016 va lan thu tu vao thang 10/2016, nhan dip tham dy Hgi nghi md rdng BRICS - BIMSTEC. Ngoai ra con cd nhigu chuyen tham khac ciia Thii tudng va cac quan chuc ngoai giao dgn An Dp. Ngugc lai, til' nam 2014 den 2019, Thii tudng Modi da cd 4 chuyen tham Sri Lanka, nhu mdt phan trong no lyc tang cudng hgp tac vdi cac nudc An Do Duang, xuat phat tii' lo ngai ve an ninh hang hai d An Dg Duang, kigm che su md rgng anh hudng ciia Trung Qudc va van de an ninh nang lugng cua An Do. Dac biet, Thu tudng Modi la Thu tudng dau tign ciia An Do tham Sri Lanka sau 28 nam kg tir nam 1987 va cung la nguygn thu qudc gia dau tign trgn thg gidi dgn tham qudc dao nay sau hang loat vu danh bom vao ngay lg Phuc sinh d Sri Lanka (thang 4/2019). Chuyen tham thii- hai den Sri Lanka dg tham dy le ky niem Ngay Quoc te Phat dan Vesak vao thang 5/2017. Trong chuygn tham nay, bang each nhan manh dac biet den cac ket ndi van hda va van minh giua hai nudc, Thii tudng Modi da truygn tai thdng diep rang, mdi quan he ciia An Do vdi Sri Lanka khdng chi dya trgn Igi ich an ninli va chien luge, ma An Dp cdn coi trpng ngn van minh chung Uen kgt hai nudc va mudn phat Uien quan he giua hai nudc dua trgn cac gia tri nay (Sultana, Gulbln, 2017).
Cd thg ndi, An Dp dudi thdi Thii tudng Modi da sii' dung ngoai giao van hoa nhu "mdt con dt chil bdr trong tang cudng quan he vdi cac nudc Nam A, trong do cd Sri Lanka. Ben canh van de Tamil, Thii tudng Modi da khdng ngimg tim each dat quan he An Dp - Sri Lanka trong "sic thdng nhdt vdn hoa" va "kit ndi vdn minh " - mdt ddng thai da dugc khdi xirdng bdi Lien minh Tign bd Thdng nhk (UFA) va hien nay dugc ca nhan Thii tudng Modi tich cyc thiic day. Ttr viec hgp tac phat trign trong chuang tnnh "ddu vit/eon duang cita Rainayana" (Ramayana Trail) d Sri Lanka
Nghien cim An Dp vaChau A. So 2 - 2020, tr.l8-28 19
Nguygn Thi Oanh. Le Thi H5ng Nga. Quan he An Do - Sri Lanka-^
va "Su ndi dip Phdt gido" (Buddhist Circuit) d An Do cho dgn khi Tdng thong Sri Lanka Maithripala Sirisena khanh thanh biic tudng Anagarika Dharmapala d Sachin thi hSu hgt cac chuyen tham d p Nha nudc giua An Dp va Sri Lanka tu' nam 2014 den nay dgu dugc nhan manh ve hgp tac va quan he van hoa.
Gan day. An Do da mdi cac nha ianh dao ciia cac nudc thanh vign BIMSTEC tham dy lg tuyen the cua Thii tudng Narendra Modi va Hgi ddng Bd trudng ciia ong sau khi tai dSc cir nam 2019. Digu nay hoan toan phii hgp vdi chinh sach doi ngoai long giing Id int tien sd mot cua Thii tudng Modi. Sau khi tai dac cu (thang 6/2019), chuygn tham nudc ngoai dau tign ciia Thii tudng An Dp la tdi Sri Lanka; day la mdt dpng thai cd tinh bigu tuong Idn, phan anh tam quan trgng ciia Sri Lanka trong chfnh sach ddi ngoai ciia Chfnh phii Modi 2.0. Sri Lanka la thanh vien cua cac to chirc khu vyc nhu BIMSTEC (Sang kien ciia Vinh ve Hgp tac Kinh te va ICy thuat Da nganh) va SAARC (Hiep hdi Nam A vi sy Hgp tac Khu vyc), trong dd An Do ddng vai trd quan trpng hang dau.
Ben canh cac chuygn tham cap cao, kgt ndi ngudi dan, ngoai giao nhan dan cung la mgt net ndi bat trong quan he ngoai giao hai nudc nhii'ng nam gan day. Do mdi quan he ljch sii' va van hoa giiia An Do va Sri Lanka, ngoai giao mgm la mgt cdng cu quan trpng dg kgt ndi nhan dSn hai nudc. Hang nam, ban 200.000 ngudi Sri Lanka den tham An Dp, bao gom mot sd lugng Idn vi muc dfch hanh huang. Mat khac, khoang 430.000 khach du lich An Dp den tham Sri Lanka, dua An Dp trd thanh qudc gia cd lupng khach du lich den Sri Lanka Idn nhat (Daily FT., 2018). Ngoai tdn giao (Fhat giao), du lich, mdi quan tam chung vg am nhac, kich, khieu vii, nganh cdng nghiep dien anh, the thao (dac biet la mon cricket) va cac chuong trinh trao ddi hpc gia la nhung diem manh thiic day ket ndi nhan dan hai nuoc.
7.Z Kinh ti
Vg quan he thuong mai, Sri Lanka tir lau da la mgt uu tign trong dau tu true tiep nudc ngoai ciia An Dp. Sri Lanka la mdt trong nhirng doi tac thuong mai lon nhat ciia An Dp dNam A.
Ngugc lai. An Dp la ddi tac thuang mai Idn nhat ciia Sri Lanka d cap dp toan cau. Thuang mai giu'a hai nudc tang nhanh chdng, dac biet la sau kJii Hiep djnh Thuong mai Tu do An Dp - Sri Lanka cd hieu lyc vao thang 3/2000. Dudi thdi Thii tudng Modi, cac van dg nhu hang rao phi thug quan (NTB) va tigp can thi trudng giua hai nudc dugc cai thien tich cue.
Theo sd lieu ciia hai quan Sri Lanka, thuang mai song phuang Sri Lanka - An Dp dat 4,7 ty USD vao nam 2015, va nam 2016 dat 4,38 ty USD. Nam 2016, xuk khku An Dp sang Sri Lanka la 3,83 ty USD, trong khi xuat khdu tir Sri Lanka sang An Do la 551 trieu USD (Ministry of External Affairs, 2017). Dac biet, khi so sanh vdi cac Chinh phii tien nhiem Modi, thuang mai giua hai quoc gia tang til' 0,7 ty USD nam 2001 len 5 ty USD nam 2017. Xudt khdu cua An Dp sang Sri Lanka tang tir 0,6 ty USD nam 2001 len 4,5 ty USD nam 2017, trong khi nhap khdu cua An Dp tir Sri Lanka tang tir 0,06 ty Ign 0,7 ty trong ciing thdi ky. Tuy nhign, mac dii gia tri thuang mai giua hai nudc giai doan 2014 - 2017 cao han cac giai doan trudc nhung thuang mai giua hai
Nghign ciru An Do va Chau A. S6 2 - 2020, tr. 18-28
Nguyen Thi Oanh, LeThi Hang Nga. Quan he An Do - Sri Lanka...
quoc gia da chiirng kign sy sut giam lien tuc. Tir nam 2014, khdi lugng thuang mai da giam tir 7 ty USD nam 2014 xuong cdn 5 ty USD nam 2017 (Ministry of External Affairs, 2017).
Ve vdn de (hue sudi thuang mgi giiea hai nu&c: Kg tii' khi Hiep dinh thuong mai ty do SAARC (SAFTA) dugc thyc hien nam 2007 va dac biet la tir nam 2014 dgn nay, thug suat thucmg mai giiia hai nudc da dugc cai thien. Tuy nhign, chi phi thuang mai giua An Dp va Sri Lanka dang tang Ign do cac rao can phi thue quan da can trd tigm nang thuang mai hai nudc.
Dudi thdi Thii tudng Modi, mire thue md An Do dp ddt doi v&i ede sdn phdm ciia Sri Lanka tuong ddi thap so vdl muc trung binh ma qudc gia nay dp dat tren thg gidi. Thug quan trung binh cao nhat ma An Dp ap dung cho Sri Lanka la ddi vdi hang hda trung gian, vdi miic thue 1,27%, trong do 1.109 ddng thug dugc nhap khau. Mat khac, thug quan thap nhat ma An Do ap dat cho Sri Lanka la ddi vdi hang hda tu lieu san xuat, vdi muc thug 0,02%, trong dd 604 ddng thug duge nhap khau bdi An Do. Cdn mice thue md Sri Lanka dp dgt ddi v&i cdc sdn phdm cua'An Do lai tuong ddi cao so vdi mii'c thug suat ma An Dp ap dung ddi vdi Sri Lanka. Thug quan cao nhdt ma Sri Lanka ap dung cho An Dp la ddi vdi nguygn lieu thd, vdi miic 7,31% (so vdi 11,76% muc thug trung binh ap dat tren the gidi). Mat khac, thug quan trung binh thap nhat dugc ap dung ddi vdi hang hda tu lieu/nguyen lieu san xuat, vdi muc thug 1,02% (so vdl 3,9% ap dung cho cac nudc trgn thg gidi) (National Apex Chamber, 2018).
Vi cdc mat hdng xudt - nhdp khdu chit luc giua hai nu&c, trong nam 2016, top 10 mat hang xuat khau ciia An Dp sang Sri Lanka chiem 66% tdng gia tri xuat khau sang Sri Lanka. Cac mat hang nay bao gdm: cac mat hang thudc ma HS 87 nhu cac phuang tien, cdng cu dudng sat (15,24%); cac mat hang thugc ma HS 88 nhu may bay, tau vCi tru (10,09%); ma hang HS 27 nhu nhien lieu, khoang san (9,07%); ma hang HS 89 nhu lau, thuygn... (6,3%); ma HS 52 gdm bdng va mgt sd mat hang khac (5,91%); cac mat hang HS 30 bao gdm cac mat hang dugc pham (4,83%)... Mdt digu quan trpng la. An Dp la ddi tac thuang mai quan trpng hang dau xet vg khfa canh nhap khau ciia Sri Lanka khi khoang 20% hang nhap khau ciia Sri Lanka dgn tii' An Dp. Cdn top 10 mat hang An Dp nhap khau tir Sri Lanka bao gom cac mat hang nhu ca phe va tra (chigm
19% tong lugng nhap khau tir Sri Lanka); du lupng va chat thai tir cac nganh cdng nghiep thyc pham (10%); trai cay va cac loai hat say khd (8%)... Dac biet. An Dp dugc xem la thi trudng chii lire cua cac mat hang xuat khau ciia Sri Lanka nhu tra, ca phg, che va gia vi (National Apex Chamber, 2018).
Ve hd trg phdt triin. An Dp la mgt trong nhting quoc gia hd trg rat tich cyc cho cdng cudc tai thigt d Sri Lanka sau cudc ndi chign nhu hd trp cho ngudi Tamil, ho trg xay dyng nha d, phuc hdi tuygn dudng sat phfa Bdc, phuc hdi Dgn Thiruketheeswaram, thanh lap Vien Nghien ciiu Ndng nghiep d mien Bac, md rdng chuang trinh hpc bong cho sinh vien Sri Lanka theo dudi cac nghign Cliu cao ban d An Dp, lap Trung tam dao tao tieng Anh va cung cap hd trg ky thuat cho Ke hoach hanh dpng qudc gia vg Sri Lanka... Sri Lanka la mdt trong nhung nudc nhan dugc tin dung phat trign Idn nhdt cua Chinh phu An Do, vdi tdng so tien cam kgt khoang 2,63 ty USD (Abdul Ruff, 2017).
Nghign Cliu An Dp va Chau A. S6 2 - 2020, tr. 18-28 21
Nguyin Thi Oanh, Le Thi H5ng Nga. Quan he An Dd - Sri Lanka^
Ve ddu tu FDI, Sri Lanka la nha ddu tu Idn thir 52 tai An Do. Sri Lanka da ddu tu 74 trieu USD tir thang 4/2000 den thang 12/2017. Mat khac, An Do la nha dau tu Idn thu 2 d Sri Lanka.
An Do la mdt trong bdn nha ddu tu hang dau tai Sri Lanka vdi so vdn ddu tu tren 1,5 ty USD vao nam 2014 thdng qua cac tap doan Idn nhu TGC, Tap doan Taj, Ashok Leyland (Ministry of External Affairs, 2017). Cac ITnh vyc chinh ma An Dp da ddu tu vao Sri Lanka la khach san, thep, cdng nghe thdng tin va Nhdm hang tieu diing nhanh (Fast Moving Consumer Goods). Trong khi dong dau tu tii Sri Lanka dgn An Dp thupc ITnh vyc vien thdng, ngan hang va tai chfnh, scm bao ve va trang tri, vign thong, container thiiy tinh de dong gdi, xi mang, cong nghe thong tin, san xuat Idp xe.
1.3. An ninh - quoc phong
Tir nam 2014 den nay, d cap dp chien lupc, hgp tac an ninh hang hai d An Dp Duong trd thanh trgng tam trong hgp tac an ninh giira New Delhi va Colombo. An Do va Sri Lanka dgu co lpi the vg vi tri dia chinh tri, nam d trung tam ciia cac tuygn dudng bien xuyen dai ducmg va tai nga tu ciia Vinh Ba Tu, Trung A, Dong Nam A.
Vi ca che hgp tc'te an nmh songphicong, ke tii" nam 2012, Ddi thoai Qudc phdng An Dp - Sri Lanka dugc td chirc 1 lan/nam nham danh gia toan bg pham vi hgp tac qudc phdng giii'a hai nudc, ddng thdi md rdng hgp tac sang cac ITnh vyc mdi de dam bao lgi fch an ninh qudc gia ciia ddi bgn.
Til nam 2014 den nay, 5 cudc ddi thoai da dugc diln ra. Can day nhat, vao ngay 8/4/2019, Doi thoai Quoc phdng An Dg - Sri Lanka lan thu 6 dugc td chuc tai Colombo vdi sy tham gia ciia mot phai doan An Do do Bd trudng Qudc phdng An Dp Sanjay Mitra dan dau. Trong cac cupc ddi thoai nay, hai ben cam ket tang cudng hgp tac trong phong thii d ca hai - luc - khong quan, dac biet la an ninh hang hai.
vi trao ddi dodn vd tap trgn qudn su, cac cuoc tap tran la bieu thi rd net nhat mdc do hgp tac an ninh - qudc phdng glii-a hai qudc gia. Dirdi thdi Thii tudng Modi, cac cudc tap tran quan su da dugc td churc thudng xuyen va lien tuc vdi Sri Lanka. Cac cudc tap tran hai quan giu'a An Do vdi Sri Lanka hau nhu bao triim toan bg cac van de an ninh hang hai, bao gdm huan luyen thiiy quan, tham tau chign, trao doi thdng tin, ciiu hd tau va may bay, hd trg thiiy van va cac cudc tap tran lign quan dgn canh sat bign (Ministry of Defence, 2018). Tii' nam 2014 dgn 2018, cac cudc tap tran Mitra Shakthi van dien ra hSng nam va cudc tap tran Mitra Shakti-V da dien ra tir ngay 13- 26/10/2017 tai Aundh, Fune. Cdn cudc tap tran hai quan Sri Lanka - An Dp, SLINEX 17 da diln ra tir ngay 7-14/9/2019 tai An Do. Cupc tap tran SLINEX ddu tien dien ra vao nam 2005, idn thir hai vao nam 2013 va dudi thdi Thii tudng Modi, 3 cudc tap tran chung SLINEX da dien ra giixa An Dp va Sri Lanka^.
vi khia cgnh an ninh, chdng khiing bd la mpt ndi dung trpng tam ma Thu tudng Modi dg cap trong chuygn tham Sri Lanka sau mgt loat cac vu danh bom khiing bd vao Le Fhuc sinh d quoc
^ C^c cuoc tap tran nay g6m: (i) SLINEX 2015 dien ra tir ng^y 27/i0 den 15/11/2015 d Trincomalee, Sri Lanka;
(ii) SLINEX 2018 diln ra tii ngay 7 dSn 13/9/2018 cr Trincomalee, Sri Lanka; va (iii) SLINEX 17 diln ra tCr ng^y 7-14/9/201913! An Do.
Nghien cim An Do va Chau A. S6 2 - 2020, tr.l 8-28 22
Nguyen Thj Oanh, Lg Thi Hang Nga. Quan he An Do - Sri Lanka...
dao nay (thang 4/2019). Vdi tu each la nguyen thii quoc gia ddu tign d6n tham An Dp sau vu khimg bd, Cao iiy Sri Lanka tai An Dp phat bieu rang "Chuyen thdm cua Thu tu&ng Modi tai Sri Lanka rdt quan trgng vi day Id ddu hiiu ciia su dodn ket de chong lgi chit nghta khiing bd.. Id thdng diep tich cue gici den todn the gi&i" (India Today, 2019), nham dam bao an ninh, hda binh d An Dp Duang.
Ve khia cgnh hgp tdc an ninh da phuang, d cap dp khu vuc Nam A/An Dp Duong, dudi su dieu phdi ciia hai quan An Dp, tap tran HARD da dien ra tii' ngay 18-20/5/2017, trong dd tap trung vao van dg Hd trg nhan dao va ciiu trg thien tai vdi su tham gia ciia Sri Lanka, Maldives, Bangladesh va Myanmar. Vao thang 4/2019, An Do, Sri Lanka va Maldives da ky kgt hgp tac an ninh hang hai ba bgn d khu vyc An Dp Duong. Ngoai ra. An Do va Sri Lanka cung hgp tac chdng khung bd va tpi pham xuyen qudc gia thdng qua td chiic khu vyc BIMSTEC. Hien nay, Sri Lanka dang dugc nhac den nhu "nhanh thie ndm trong lien minh an ninh lie gidc An Do Duang"
(quadrilateral Indian Ocean security alliance) khi quoc gia nay dang cd cac dpng thai tang cudng quan he an ninh vdi ca An Dp va Nhat Ban (N. Sathiya Moorthy, 2017).
2. Danh gia quan he An Do - Sri Lanka 2.L Thdnh tuu
Co thg thay dac diem ndi bat nhat ciia quan he An Do - Sri Lanka tu' nam 2014 den nay la ehieu hiedng phdt trien trong quan he hai nie&c chiu ldc dgng rdt IOTI ciia yen td cd nhdn lanh dao qudc gia, cu thg la su thay ddi chi'nh quyen d An Do nam 2014 vdi viec Thii Urdng Modi Ign nam chfnh quyen va d Sri Lanka la viec dng Maithripala Sirisena trd thanh Tdng thdng sau cudc tdng tuygn cir nam 2015. Su thay ddi bd mdy Idnh dgo a cd hai nu&c trong thai gian qua dd md ra ca hdi de dinh hinh lgi quan hi song phuang hai nu&c von dd trdi qua nhieu thdng trdm trong ba thdp ky. Cu the, d An Dp la viec Thu tudng Modi dac cir va trign khai chinh sach Lang gieng la uu tien sd mdt. Cdn d Sri Lanka la viec T6ng thong Sirisena ddc cii' va thyc hien chfnh sach Tai can bdng va khdng lign kgt theo "cow duang trung dgo" ("Middle Falh'V'Middle Way") truygn thong cua mpt qudc gia Phat giao - qua dd vira cho thdy mdt chfnh sach ngoai giao hudng dgn su ket ndi thuong mai vdi cac nudc khac theo phuang cham "giao ihteang v&i tdt cd, nhimg khdng liin minh v&i qudc gia ndo", d6ng thdi giam bdt anh hudng cua Trung Quoc va tang cudng hgp tac vdi An Dp (ft.lk, 20! 6).
(i) vi tdng thi, mdi quan he hien nay gitra An Do va Sri Lanka cd the xem la mgt "md hinh ciia mdi quan he lot dep giiea mgt nu&c nhg vd mgt nu&c l&n " (Ivan Campbell va cpng sy, 2012).
An Dp la ddi tac quan trpng hang dau ciia Sri Lanka d khu vuc Nam A ndi rieng va trgn thg gidi noi chung. Mdi quan he hai nudc dugc danh ddu bdng mdi quan he gan giii d mpi cap, mgi ITnh vyc. Quan he chinh tri - ngoai giao, thuang mai, ddu tu, giao dye, van hda va quoc phdng giira hai nudc c6 nhOng bude phat trign vugt bac. Ngoai ra, ca hai nudc ciing chia se nhigu quan dilm tuong ddng trong cac van de qudc tg.
Nghign cim An Dp va Chau A. S6 2 - 2020, tr.18-28
Nguyen Thj Oanh, Le Thj H5ng Nga. Quan he An Dd - SrUai^^
(ii) Quan he chinh tri - ngogi giao dugc xem la diem sang trong quan he hai nudc ben canh cac khfa canh khac nhu ho trg phat trign, kinh tg, thuang mai va an ninh - qudc phdng. Trong cudc ngi chien keo dai gan 3 thap ky giua quan ddi Sri Lanka va Nhung con hd giai phdng Tamil (LTTE), An Dp da img hd quygn va lgi ich hgp phap cua Chinh phii Sri Lanka dg ch6ng lai luc lugng khiing bd. Ngay nay, dudi thdi Thii tudng N. Modi, An Do tdn trpng sy thong nhat, dan chil, da nguygn ciia Sri Lanka (Government of India, 2017^.
(iii) Cd le diem thanh cdng de thay trong quan he hai nudc tii' nam 2014 dgn nay la, trong tat ca cac cam ket song phuong. An Dp ludn ludn tuyen bd va nhan manh rang qudc gia nay mudn mdt "Sri Lanka dn dinh vd hoa binh". An Dp muon trd thanh mdt ddi tac trong su phat trien cua quoc dao nay ciing nhu that chat quan he song phuong trong tdt ca cac kliia canh bao gdm kinh te, an ninh, ket ndi ngudi dan, van hda (Sultana, Gulbln, 2017).
Ve quan he kinh te, trong nhu'ug nam qua. An Do da ddng gdp vai trd quan trpng trong ho trg phat trign chinh thuc cho sy phat trien kinh te cua Sri Lanka. Theo Ngan hang Trung uang Sri Lanka, chi rieng nam 2017, An Dp la doi tac thuang mai Idn nhat cua Sri Lanka, tigp theo la Trung Qudc va My - ba quoc gia ddng gdp 40% tdng thuang mai ciia qudc dao nay. Thuong mai giua An Dp va Sri Lanka da vugt 5 ty USD trong nam 2017 (so vdi 1 ly USD nam 2012), chiem 16,1% thj phdn thuong mai cua qudc dao nay (Daily FT., 2018). Mac dii An Dp da bay td sy e ngai nhat dinh lign quan dgn cac dy an thuong mai vdi qudc gia thu ba khac d Sri Lanka (ham y chi Trung Quoc) (Daily FT., 2018) nhung Sri Lanka da tuygn bd rdng hgp tac kinh te - thuong mai vdi bgn thu ba se khdng anh hudng den quan he vdl An Dp ciing nhu an ninh song phuang va khu vyc. Vdi nhii'ng nen tang quan he thuang mai hai nudc hien nay, thuang mai giua An Dp va Sri Lanka dugc dy doan se tang gap ddi len 10 ty USD vao nam 2022 (National Apex Chamber, 2018).
Ve quan he an ninh - qudc phong, trudc sy bign dgng d khu vuc An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong, hai nudc da cd nhu'ng bude tign bd quan trgng ca d cap do khu vyc va toan cau. Hgp tac an ninh - qudc phdng dupc hai nudc chii trgng va pham vi hpp tac dugc md rdng bao triim nhigu ITnh vyc, trong dd an ninh hang hai va chdng khiing bo la hai try cdt chfnh. Cac cudc tap tran thudng nien va cac cudc doi thoai cdp cao giiia hai nudc hien nay chinh la nen tang dg hai nudc lang cudng hgp tac nhdm dam bao mpt khu vuc An Dp Duong on dinh va hda binh.
Su thdnh cdng ciia chinh quyen Modi trong quan he vai Sri Lanka nhieng ndm gdn ddy chinh la dd duy tri mdt cdch tiip cdn cdn bdng, hdi hda trong viec ldm diu lo nggi cua nhdng nguoi Tamil vi An Dd vd ldm hoa diu su chi trich, chdng ddi ciia nhung ngiedi theo chii nghia ddn tgc Sinhala. Thii tudng Modi da tuygn bd ro rang rdng. An Dp iing hd sy thdng nhat ciia Sri Lanka nhung cung nhan manh sy cdn thigt phai siia dfii Digu khoan thu 13 ciia Hien phap Sri Lanka dl trao quygn chfnh trj cho cdng dong thilu so Tamil (Husanjot Chahal, 2017). Trong khi New Delhi Ling hd cac Nghj quygt ciia Hgi dong Nhan quygn Lien Hgp Qudc (UNHRC) giup Sri Lanka cd them thdi gian dl bao ve lgi ich cua ngudi Tamil, Thu tudng Modi da cd mdt chuygn tham mang tinh biiu tugng din Jaffna - khu vyc do ngudi Tamil thdng tri va nhan manh dgn sy hoa giai va
Nghien cim An Do va Chau A. So 2 - 2020, tr.l 8-28 24
Nguyen Thj Oanh, Lg Thi Hdng Nga. Quan he An Do - Sri Lanka..
phuc hdl nhung ban sac dan tdc cua ngudi Tamil. Y nghTa ciia nhu'ng ddng thai nay cho thdy An Dp da khdn kheo trong can bang quan he giiia ngudi Tamil Sri Lanka va Tamil An Dp, mat khac da thanh cdng trong viec dua quan he An Dp - Sri Lanka ra khdi "cdi bdng" ciia van dg Tamil.
Tdm lai, nhirng thanh tyu trong quan he chinh tri - ngoai giao, kinh t l , an ninh qudc phdng giii'a An Dp va Sri Lanka chfnh la ngn tang chfnh tri quan trpng cho su phat triln quan he hai nudc trong thdi gian tdi. Mdi quan he hgp tac huu nghi giu'a hai nudc gdp phdn thiic ddy sy dn dinh va phat trien trong khu vyc An Dp Duang.
2.2. Han chi (i) Ve mat chien luge
Bude vao thg ky XXI, trong tfnh toan chfnh sach ddi ngoai ciia Sri Lanka, An Dp dugc coi la
"quyen lice thdng tri", "quyen luc chiem uu the" do sy gan gui ve dia ly va sd lugng ngudi Tamil d bang Tamil Nadu cung nhu sy can thiep cua An Dp ddi vdi mpt so van dg npi bd cua Sri Lanka thdi,digm nay (Sikri, R., 2009). Quan diem "quyin luc thing tri" cdn dugc hiiu d khfa canh la sy vupt trdi ciia An Do so vdl Sri Lanka va sy chgnh lech Idn nghieng vg phia An Dp trong quan he song phuang giua hai nudc trong mgi ITnh vyc-'. Sy vupt troi ciia An Do va sy bat ddi ximg vdi u'u the quyen lyc nghieng vg phia An Dp ggi Ign nhu'ng lo ngai ciia Sri Lanka vg sy "thdng trf va anh hudng vugt trpi ciia An Dp (Sridharan, K., 2008). Mat khac, trong lich su, nhuug phat bigu ciia cac nha chign luge An Dp trong nhii'ng nam trudc khi Sri Lanka gianh dugc dpc lap (1948), am chi Sri Lanka nhu mgt dan vi ty tri ciia Lign bang An Do da lam nhii'ng ngudi theo chii nghTa dan tgc Sinhala cho rang, do la bang chiing ve chii nghTa banh tiai'dng cua An Do. Day chfnh la trd lyc rat Idn ddi vdi sy "ddng thudn chinh tri" trong quan he song phuong giu'a hai nudc (William Howard Wriggins, 1960).
(ii) Ve hgp tdc kinh te
Mac dii quan he kinh tg giua hai nudc cd chigu hudng phat trien tich cyc nhung chi d khfa canh hd trg phat trien cdn cac khfa canh khac van d dudi miic tigm nang Cy the, gia tri thuang mai va dau tu sut giam, van de tham hyt thuang mai ciia Sri Lanka, van de cac thda thuan thuang mai chua dugc thdng nhat. Trong tat ca cac chuang trinh nghi sy giua An Dp va Sri Lanka, hgp tac kinh tg ludn dugc xem la ITnh vyc trpng tam trong hpp tac song phuang. Hai nudc da thao luan ve each thuc day dong vdn dau tu tir An Dp sang Sri Lanka va dg xuat cac'the chg hgp tac kinh tg day tham vpng nhu Thda thuan Hgp tac Kinh tg va Cdng nghe (ETCA)'' va Hgp tac tieu viing
^ Theo s6 liSu cua Ngan hang Thg gioi (2016), dien tfch ddt lign cua An Bo gdp 46 idn so vo'i cac qu6c dao l^ng giSng, c6 dan s6 1,32 ty so voi 22,27 trieu nguoi cua Sri Lanka. GDP (theo sue mua tuong ducrng) la 4,99 nghin ty USD so vol 134,5 ty USD cua Sri Lanka, ngan sach quSc phong cua An Do !& 40 ty USD, gdp 8,5 idn so vdi Sri Lanka (1,5 t^ USD).
'' ETCA dugc dS xudt dl tang cuong thucmg mai djch vu, ddu tu va hgp tac cong nghe giua 5 bang phia Nam dang phat trign nhanh nhdt cua An Dp - Kamataka, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh va Telangana - vdi Sri Lanka. Do cdc bang n^y gdn vdi Sri Lanka v6 mat dia Iy, ECTA se tan dung vi fri chiSn luge dia Iy doc ddo cua Sri Lanka, ndm d nga tu cua cdc tuyin van chuyin thuang mai chinh cua khu vuc, ECTA ciing se tang cuong h6i nhap khu vuc vd c6 thi biln Sri Lanka thanh trung tam dja - kinh te cua Nam A.
Nghign ciru An Dp va Ch^u A. S6 2 - 2020, tr.18-28 25
Nguyen Thi Oanh, Lg Thi Hdng Nga. Quan he An Do - SriJ^nkO::^
Nam An - Sri Lanka; tuy nhien, trgn thyc tl, nhung thg chi nay chua dugc triln khai hieu qua.
Bgn canh dd, quan h? kinh t l , thuang mai giua hai nudc tdn tai sy mdt can xung va diam hut thuong mai vdi uu thg nghigng vg An Dp. Theo s6 lieu cua Ngan hang Trung uong Sri Lanka, nam 2015, xuat khau cua An Do sang Sri Lanka la 4,268 trieu USD, trong khi xudt khdu cua Sri Lanka sang An Dp chi d mu'c 643 USD - phan anh sy tham hut thuang mai Idn ciia Sri Lanka vdi An Dp.
Ve ddu tu, ddu tu ciia An Dp vao Sri Lanka giam dang kl trong nam 2016 - 2017 so vdi hai nam trudc. Thda thuan Hgp tac Kinh tl va Cong nghe (ETCA) mac dii dugc Thii tudng Sri Lanka Ranil Wickremeinghe thdng bao rang se dupc ky vao cudi nam 2016 nhung den nay vdn chua dugc hai nudc hoan thien va cac van dl lien quan den Hiep djnh Thuang mai Ty do (FTA) duoc ky ket nam 2000 van chua dugc giai quyet triet dg. Trgn thyc tl, thg che hgp tac kinh te quan trpng duy nhat dugc An Dp va Sri Lanka thyc hien trong ba nam qua la ban Ghi nhd hgp tac (MoU) vg hgp tac trong cac du an kinh te dugc ky ket trong chuyen tham An Do vao thang 4/2017 ciia Thii tudng Wickremeinghe. Tuy nhign, ban MoU nay vg ca ban van dugc danh gia la
"mgt lg trinh cho luang lai" bdi cac chuong trinh hgp tac dugc de ra van chua dugc hai nudc trien khai.
Ve chi phi thuang mgi, tir nam 2014 dgn nay, thuong mai va dau tu song phuo'ng gitra An Dp va Sri Lanka dgu bi "ddy gid" do cac thach thuc vg van dl ket ndi ha tang, mii'c dp hdi nhap kinh te thap xuat phat tii" sy khac biet vg chfnh trj, sy da dang ve sac tgc, tdn giao, cung nhu nhung rao can tir sy yeu kem ciia chat lugng ca sd ha tang va su dau tu chua thda dang. Mac dit cd chung bien gidl trgn bign, cac djch vy van chuyen giii'a An Do va Sri Lanka van phai di qua cang Chabahar d Iran de ket ndi gian tigp vdi Afghanistan. Do dd, chi phf giao dich qua bign gidi d khu vuc Nam A la rat cao.
(lii) Nhdn td Trung Qudc
Ben canh An Do, Trung Quoc la mpt trong nhung doi tac thuo'ng mai, dau tu Idn nhat ciia Sri Lanka. Q cap dp chign luge, mdi quan he gan giii giua Colombo va Bac Kinh la mdt trd !yc trong quan he glu'a An Dp va Sri Lanka. Hay ndi each khac, moi quan he giua New Delhi va Colombo se phiic tap hon khi cd sy hien dien ciia Trung Qudc. Sy phiic tap ciia tam giac quan he nay khong chi dirng lai d cap dp chign luge hay kinh tg, thuang mai va dau tu, ma cdn la sy tuang tac phuc tap giira ba tdn giao Fhat giao - Hindu giao va Khdng giao. Tham chi nhieu quan digm cho rdng, Sri Lanka "tdn dung" Trung Qudc nhu mdt kgnh dg nd lyc "edn bdng ddng" vdi An Dp (Hariharan Kaudaudahewa, 2014). Hien nay, Sri Lanka dang liin vao "bdy ng" (debt trap) ciia Trung Quoc (Umesh Moramudali, 2017). Chfnh phu nudc nay khdng cd lya chpn nao khac ngoai chia se viec quan ly cac dy an vdi "chit no" Trung Qudc nhu cang Hambantota va san bay Mattala.
Mac dii An Dp cung la ddi tac thuong mai Idn nhat ciia Sri Lanka d cap dd toan cdu nhung dat trong tuang quan so sanh ve thuang mai song phuang giii'a Trung Quoc va Sri Lanka thi chenh lech rdt ft va Trung Qudc cung la doi tac thuang mai Idn thu hai cua Sri Lanka d cap dp toan cdu. Neu thuong mai song phuang An Do va Sri Lanka dat gia tri 4,7 ty USD (nam 2015) va 4,38 ty USD
Nghien cuu An Dp va Chau A S6 2 - 2020, tr. 18-28 26
Nguygn Thi Oanh, Le Thj Hdng Nga. Quan he An Do - Sri Lanka...
(nam 2016) thi gia trj thuang mai song phuang giua Trung Qudc va Sri Lanka diing d miic 4 ty USD trong cung khung thdi gian, nhung vdi tdc do tang trudng cao ban. Mdt FTA Sri Lanka cua Trung Qudc cung dang dugc thao luan de ky kgt giu'a hai nudc (Geethanjali Nataraj, 2017).
(iv) Su ndi lin cita chit nghia ddn toe Sinhala & Sri Lanka
Mdi quan he giOa New Delhi vdi Colombo mac dii dang trong giai doan phat triln manh nhung mdt thyc te rat quan ngai la "tdm ly chdng An Do" dang gia tang d Sri Lanka. Sy khac biet ve tinh cam giira Chfnh phii Sri Lanka va ngudi dan Colombo doi vol An Dp chu yeu do vdn dl mat can bang thuong mai ciia Sri Lanka vdi An Do va mdt sd hiep djnh ty do hda thuang mai dich vy va dau tu giiia hai nudc. Mac dii, trong quan diem cua ngudi dan Sri Lanka, quan he cua Sri Lanka va Trung Qudc dugc xay dyng trgn ngn tang kinh tg vdi cac khoan dau tu khdng Id vao CO sd ha tang, nhung An Do lai cd nhirng nd lyc dg dam bao su thdng trj trong khu vyc va chdng lai su anh hudng ciia Trung Qudc nham "khda" Sri Lanka trong quy dao kinh tg cua An Dp. Do dd, doi vdi mdt sd ngudi dan theo chu nghTa dan tdc Sinhala, trong khi Trung Qudc duy tri each tigp can kinh te, An Dp ciing ddng thdi duy tri each tiep can thuc dyng va gia tang anh hudng chfnh tri, do dd vii'a tao nen tSm ly "chdng An", viia tao ngn tam ly "bai Trung" cua nhii'ng ngudi theo chil nghTa dan tdc Sinhala d Sri Lanka (Ahilan Kadirgamar, 2016).
Ket luan
Dudi thdi Thii tudng Modi, quan he An Do - Sri Lanka da cd nhiing phat trign mdi tren cac ITnh vyc chfnh trj - ngoai giao, kinh tg va an ninh qudc phdng. Cimg vdi sy hgi nhap ciia An Do vao thg gidi d mdt "cap dp mdi" do "sire manh kinh tg dat nudc dang khong ngii'ng gia tang va ndi Ign nhu mdt cudng qudc khu vyc", quan he An Dp - Sri Lanka cung da dugc dua Ign mdt "cap do mdi" (Economic Times, 2019). Mac du vay, hai nudc can tiep tyc vupt qua mdt so thach thiic nhu sy bat can x m g vg sue manh tdng hgp qudc gia cung nhu trong hpp tac kinh tg, nhan td Trung Qudc, chii nghTa dan tpc Sinhala... dl dam bao sy phat trien dn djnh va ben vii-ng cua quan he song phucmg.
Tai lieu tham khao
1. Ivan Campbell, Thomas Wheeler, Larry Attree, Dell Marie Butler and Bernardo Mariani (2012), China and Conflict-Affected Stales: Between Principle and Pragmatism, Safeworld, p.22.
2. Husanjot Chahal (2017), "Three Years ofthe Modi Government India-Sri Lanka: Reorienting the Relationship?", Institute of Peace and Confict Studies, 28 June.
3. Daily FT. (2018;, India, Sri Lanka. Indian Ocean and the coercive diplomacy of India, http://www.ft.lk/columns/India-Sri-Lanka-lndian-Ocean-and-the-coercive-diplomacy-of-lndia/4-665785, ngay tmy cap 22/7/2019.
4. Economic Times (2019). Government invites BIMSTEC leaders for swearing-in ceremony on May 30. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/government-invites-bimstec-leaders- for-swearing-in-ceremony-on-may-30/articleshow/69524582.cms?from=mdr, ngay truy cap 25/7/2019.
Nghign cim An Dp va Chau A. Sd 2 - 2020, tr. 18-28 27
Nguygn Thi Oanh, Le Thj Hdng Nga. Quan hi An Do - SnJfJ^^
5. Government of India (2017;. India - Sri Lanka Relations,
https://mea.gov.in/Portal/ForeignRelation/Sri_Lanka_November_2017_NEW.pdf, ngay truy cap 25/7/2019.
6. Ahilan Kadirgamar (2016), Wliy India's Big Push for Economic Cooperation in Lanka May Sac^re, https://thewire.in/diplomacy/why-indias-big-push-for-economic-cooperation-in-lanka-may- backfire, ngay truy cap 10/9/2019.
7. Hasith Kaudaudahewa (2015), Indo-Srilanka Bilateral Relations: Analytical review on Political &
Cultural Relations since 2005, Department of International Relations, University of Colombo, Sri Lanka.
8. Ministry of Defence, Government of India (2018), Anaual Report 2017-18. New Delhi, p.l 71.
9. Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India (2017), India - Sri Lanka Relations, New Delhi.
10. N Sathiya Moorthy (2017), "Why India needs to re-calibrate relations with Sri Lanka", Observer Research Foundation, July 09.
11. Umesh Moramudali {2011), Sri Lanka's Debt and China's Adoney,
https://thediplomat.com/2017/08/sri-lankas-debt-and-chinas-money/, ngay truy cap 10/9/2019.
12. Geethanjali Nataraj (2017), China driving India-Sri Lanka ties, Indian Institute of Public Administration, https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2017/05/13/china-driving-india-sri-lanka-ties/ 13 May 2017.
13. National Apex Chamber (2018), India - Sri Lanka Bilateral Relations: reinforcing trade and investementprospects, PHD House, 4/2 Siri Institutional Area, August Kranti Marg, New Delhi.
14. PM Modi visits Sri Lanka as situation remains tense after Easter Sunday bombings, https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/pm-rriodi-to-visit-sri-lanka-today-as-situation-remains-tense-after- easter-sunday-bombings-1545240-2019-06-09, ngay truy cap 30/7/2019.
15. Sikri, R. (2009), Challenge and strategy: Rethinking India's foreign policy. New Delhi: SAGE, p.75.
16. Abdul Ruff (2017), Genocides of Tamils and Indo-Sri Lanka relations',
http://southasiajouraal.net/genocides-of-tamils-and-indo-sri-lanka-relations, ngay truy cap 25/7/2019.
\l.Sri Lanka's foreign policy under President Maithripala Sirisena, http://www.ft.lk/opinion/sri- lankas-foreign-policy-under-president-maithripala-sirisena/14-539559, ngay truy cap 25/7/2019.
18. Sridharan, K. (2008), "Regional organisations and conflict management: Comparing ASEN and SAARC", Working paper 33. Regional and Global Axes of Conflict, NUS, p. 15.
19. Sudha Ramachandran (2015), A new Ear for India - Sri Lanka Relations,
https://thediplomat.com/2015/02/a-new-era-for-india-sri-Ianka-relations/, ngay truy cap 30/7/2019.
20. Sultana, Gulbin (2017), India-Sri Lanka Relations in the Context of India's 'Neighbourhood First'Policy, Indian Foreign Affairs Journal
Nghien cuu An Do va Chau A. S6 2 - 2020, tr.l 8-28
