QUAN HE QUOC TE
TINH HINH NirdC MY VA THE Cl6l SAU
CHIEN TRANH MET NAM: MOT SO Y KIEN BAN DAU
M
dt trong nhUng nhan dinh can ban ciia chiing ta ve tinh hinh My va the gidi sau khi Chien tranh Viet Nam ket thiic la "My da suy yeu nhieu ve quan sU, chinh tri, kinh te, tai chinh, keo theo ca the gidi tu ban chii nghia Mn sau vao mdt thdi ky tdng khiing hoang toan dien va khdng phUdng ciiu chUa", "tinh hinh each mang the gidi ngay nay thuan ldi hdn bad gid he't va dang diing trUde nhiing trien vong td't dep", va "dac diem cua phong trao ddc lap dan toe ngay nay la ed xu the ngay cang gan hen vdi chii nghia xa hdi.'" Nhan dinh dd mang tinh khai quat cho ea mdt thdi ky each mang sau nam 1975.Tuy nhien, sau 30 nam, tinh hinh the gidi va khu viic da ed nhUng thay ddi Idn cung nhu nhUng tiep nd'i dang ke, va ve cd ban khdng phu hdp vdi nhan dinh ke tren. Diing la CNTB, nha't la nude My, lam vao khiing hoang tram trong nhUng khdng ed nghia la khdng ed Id'i thoat. Trong khi dd phong trao each mang da ed nhUng budc phat trien Idn. nhUng ddng thdi cung chiia diing nhUng khd khan Idn ma viec khdng xii ly kip thdi da dan den nhieu hau qua nghiem trong.
Lich sii la mdt cude tranh luan khdng cd hdi ket.^ Viec phan xet lich sii bao gid cung rat phife tap, bdi vi tU duy cua hau the khac tU duy eiia mdt thdi da qua, va nhat la lai khdng the ap dat tu duy ciia mot thdi dd'i vdi tU duy cua mot thdi khac. Vdi xuat phat diem nhU vay, bai
Ts. N g u y e n Vu Tiing Hoc vien Ngoai giao
vie't nay xin de cap den mdt sd diem ve mat hoc thuat, gidi thieu mot sd' nghien ciiu lich sii quan he qud'e te gan day hen quan den giai doan "hau Viet Nam". Cac nghien eiiu sii hoe nay - chu yeu diia tren nhiing nguon tai lieu mdi dUde giai mat tii cac kho lUu trU ciia cac nUde XHCN Ddng Au va Lien Xd cu. My va cac nUde phUdng Tay khac - da chd chiing ta mdt biic tranh md ta tinh hinh the gidi phUe tap hdn nhieu so vdi eac md ta chinh thiic tu trUde den nay.
Tam v6c sii suy yeu ciia My Trong thap ky 70 va 80 ciia the ky XX, that bai d Viet Nam, hda diu vdi phe XHCN, va cii sd'e dau liia da gay cho My nhUng tac ddng rat tieu ciic.
Tha't bai d Viet Nam danh vao uy tin ye siic manh eua My: ve quan sii. My lan dau tien trong lich sii thua mdt nUde
"hang ba" tren the gidi (ldi eua Kissinger) sau khi thii nghiem ta't ca cac chien lUdc sii dung vu khi thdng thUdng; ve ngoai giao, My khdng gianh dUcJc thang ldi tren ban dam phan vdi Vidt Nam va khdng dat dUde ca "hda binh va danh dii" (cung theo ldi Kissinger), va that bai trong viec sii dung cac cdng cu ngoai giao nUdc Idn (sii dung silc ep ciia Lien Xd va Trung Qud'e dd'i vdi Viet Nam trong dam phan tai Paris) de gay siic ep vdi Viet Nam tren ban dam phan. Neu so vdi ldi tuyen bd' cua Kennedy: "My di bat cii dau, lam bat cii viec gi, ehd'ng lai bat cif ke thu nao, giiip dd bat cif nUde ban be
nao de bao ve tii do", thi nUdc My giUa thap ky 70 da suy yeu ra't nhieu.
Vdi viec sa lay d Viet Nam, My edn tao ra mot ed hdi vang cho cac nUde ddng minh phUdng Tay vUdn len ve mat kinh te va chinh tri. Neu nhU nam 1970 My chiem 38% tdng san lUdng kinh te the gidi, thi con sd' dd la 25%
nam 1980; trong khi dd EC tang tif 26 len 30% va Nhat Ban tif 8 len 10%.
Nhu vay, kinh te' My tii: chd Idn hdn kinh te EU va Nhat cdng lai thi den nam 1980 da kem hdn.^ Dd la chUa ke den thiie te khac la kinh te My - mot phan do chi phi qua Idn d Viet Nam - bi lam vae khiing hoang va lam phat vdi ket qua la ddng ddla suy yeu va khdng the lam chd diia cho he thd'ng tai chinh the gidi: he thd'ng tien te Bretton Woods diia tren sii thd'ng tri eiia ddng ddla My da sup dd nam 1973.
Hoa diu danh da'u sU that bai eua My trong viec ngan chan Lien Xd phat trien ve mat kinh te va quan sii: Lien Xd da dat dUdc can bang chien lUdc ve vu khi nguyen tii vdi My. (NhU vay, ket hdp vdi Viet Nam, My bi yeu the ca ve mat vu khi thdng thudng va vu khi nguyen tii). Hdn nUa, d Chau Au, hda diu edn la mdt sii chap nhan thiie te ve sU Idn manh eiia Lien Xd, the hien d viec hiep dinh Helsinki nam 1975 chinh thiic cdng nhan dUdng bien gidi chinh tri mdi d Chau Au hinh thanh sau nam 1945, cung nhU bad hieu sii doe lap ngay cang tang len ciia Tay Au dd'i vdi My. Tif nam 1970. Willy Brandt thudc dang Dan chii xa hdi Tay Diic len lam thii tUdng, thiic day quan he hUu nghi vdi Ddng Diic va Lien Xd trong chien lUcJc Ostpolitik (hda diu vdi phUdng Ddng). Va hda diu edn tao ra mot tinh hinh mdi, trong dd Lien Xd phat hu>' anh hUdng manh me d eac nUde dang phat trien. Cac cude each mang d Angola, Grenada, Ethiopia, Mozambique, Ddng Dudng, Afghanistan, Nicaragua,... deu do cac
phong trao Mac-xit lanh dao va cd dudng ldi dd'i ngoai than thien vdi phe XHCN va chd'ng TBCN.
Va khung hoang ddu liia cung cho tha'y mot mat cac nUdc OPEC da biet sii dung vu khi dau liia de bao ve quyen \6i cua minh va gay siic ep ve mat ngoai giao dd'i vdi cac nUde phUdng Tay, vdi My tren nhieu va'n de, nha't la Trung ddng va Israel. My da khdng the ehi huy mdt nhdm cac nUdc - phan Idn thudc the gidi thii ba va than My ve mat chinh tri - trong viec bao dam nguon dau liia vdi gia re va dn dinh. Chii nghia thiic dan mdi da hi tan cdng vao ban chat.
Nhu vay, suy yeu eua My va the gidi TBCN la mot thiic te lich sii ciia tinh hinh the gidi giiia thap ky 70 va nha't la sau nam 1975. Thiie te nay edn dUde khang dinh qua nhUng dien bien chUa tiing ed trdng lich sii chinh tri My: vu Watergate da lam Nixon phai tijf chiic trong nhuc nha va qua dd Qudc hdi My cung gay dUcJe siic ep giam dang ke quyen lUe eiia tdng thd'ng, nha't la quyen tuyen chien.' Neu so vdi mdt giai doan dai tif sau nam 1945, CNTB diing dau la My da suy yeu dang ke sau 30 nam.
Nhiifng d i e u n g h i c h ly tii sxi suy y e u c u a p h i f d n g T a y
NhUng neu sii suy yeu ciia phUdng Tay, nha't la My, la mdt thiic te de nhin nhan, thi ddng thdi mdt thiie te khac cung da hinh t h a n h trong giai doan nay, tuy khd nhan ra hdn. Dd la tac ddng "tich ciic" ciia sU suy yeu dd'i vdi My va phUdng Tay. ThiC nhdt, sU suy yeu da tao ra tam ly va tiep dd la chinh sach thoat khdi khiing hoang.
Vao nUa sau thap ky 70, dan dan xuat hien trong chinh trUdng cac nUdc phUdng Tay nhUng xu the bao thii mot mat ling hd vai trd Idn hdn eiia khu viic kinh te tU nhan, mat khac chii trUdng gay cang thang qud'e te chd'ng
eac nude XHCN. D a n g Bao thii va T h a t c h e r len n a m quyen d Anh, d a n g Cong hda va R e a g a n len n a m quyen d My (khdng ke trUdc dd, C h i n h quyen C a r t e r ke tU niia s a u n h i e m ky tdng thdng da chuyen s a n g t h i e n hUu ea ve chinh sach dd'i ndi va chinh sach dd'i ngoai) deu ap d u n g chinh sach eifng r a n dd'i vdi Lien Xd va phe XHCN. Dd'i dau toan dien da d a n t h a y t h e hda diu qud'e te va Chien t r a n h L a n h da quay trd lai tiJf cud'i t h a p ky 70.
D a n g chii y la sii xua't h i e n ve m a t t u tUdng ciia cai goi la t r a o luu T a n bao thii h i e n n a y d a n g long h a n h d My.'' Ve c a n b a n . T a n bao t h u la sU ket hdp giiia h a i n h a n h ciic doan t r o n g ca p h a i t a va p h a i hUu d My.
Dilng trUde thiie te nUdc My hi suy yeu t o a n dien, mot n h d m nhd eac tri thiic p h a i Ta, t h u d c trUdng p h a i Tii do ciia My da trd n e n b a t m a n vdi xu h u d n g c h i n h t r i va c h i n h sach ma theo ho da c h u y e n s a n g "thien ta" d trong nUdc My.'' Hdn nUa, ho cho r a n g suy yeu sife m a n h q u a n sii da dan den suy giam q u y e n liic va vai trd ciia My t r e n t h e gidi. T r o n g nhUng n a m 1970, nhUng t r i thiic T a n bao thii da cdng tac vdi ThUcing n g h i si d a n g D a n chii H e n r y J a c k s o n , la mdt chinh tri gia ndi t i e n g chd'ng cdng. Va vao t h a p ky 80 k h i Ronald R e a g a n ndi len va trd t h a n h tdng thd'ng, nhUng ngiidi Tan bad thii da h o a n t o a n c h u y e n s a n g ling hd d a n g Cdng hda, n a m giU cac chiic vu cao t r o n g c h i n h quyen ciia d a n g n a y do cd sii t r i i n g hap t r o n g y tUdng va muc t i e u c h i n h sach ddi ndi va dd'i ngoai: giam vai trd ciia n h a nude ve m a t k i n h te va xa hdi, t a n g chi phi q u a n su, day m a n h chay d u a vu t r a n g va c a n g t h a n g t h e gidi, t a p hdp liic lUdng chd'ng Lien Xd, ciing cd dia vi ba chii ciia My trdn t h e gidi.
C h i n h sach gay c a n g t h a n g va chay dua vu t r a n g eiia My da gay ra mot sd tac ddng r a t q u a n t r o n g ea ve k i n h td.
chinh tri, va q u a n sii. Ve m a t kinh te, viec C h i n h quyen R e a g a n chap n h a n t h a m h u t n g a n sach, do tien do ciia vao cude chay d u a vu t r a n g t r e n thiic te da la mdt h a n h ddng kich thich k i n h te theo hUdng t r o n g cung (supply-side. b a n chat ciia Reaganomics): cac cdng ty Idn (nhat la cac td hdp cdng n g h i e p - q u a n sU) dude cap vd'n, giam t h u e , va dUde chinh phii d a t h a n g de t a p t r u n g vao cac linh viic q u a n sii lien q u a n chat che den n g h i e n cUu va iing d u n g cdng nghe cao. t r o n g dd ed cdng nghe thdng tin.' Ket qua la da cd dot pha trong viec chuyen n e n k i n h te theo hifdng p h a t t r i e n ve c h a t - (theo hifdng kinh te' tri thUe h a u cdng nghiep), khac xa vdi viec Lien Xd v a n d a n g p h a t trien theo chieu rong va vao nhUng linh viic vd'n la dac diem ciia thdi ky cdng nghiep hda n h u t h a n , t h e p . xi mang.
Ndi each khac, chay dua vu t r a n g da tao ra tac ddng kep. Mdt mat nd thuc day k i n h te p h a t t n e n thdng qua dau t u vao nhUng n g a n h miii nbon va la mdt bd p h a n cua mdt chinb sach kinh te tdng the theo hifdng trong cung va p h a t h u y hdn nUa tinh n a n g ddng ciia k h u viic kinh te t u n h a n . M a t khac, nd day Lien Xd vao mot con dudng p h a t trien khd k h a n hdn, va do dd khac sau hdn nhUng yeu td kem hoan t h i e n ciia mdt nen kinh td tap t r u n g . Cung chay dua vu t r a n g , nhUng Lien Xd da k h d n g ket nd'i dUdc p h a t t r i e n trong cdng nghiep qudc phdng vdi nen k i n h te ndi chung, lam cho chay d u a vu t r a n g trd t h a n h ganh n a n g cho n e n k i n h te. Tuy dat dUdc can b a n g vu k h i h a t n h a n vdi My.
Lien Xd da phai chi tdi 25".. tdng san p h a m qud'e d a n cho t h a n h tUu nay."
Nghien ciiu va che tao vu khi h a t n h a n r a t td'n kem, nhUng vioc duy t n chiing t r o n g t r a n g t h a i sAn sang chien da'u va phiit trien cac he thd'ng phdng (may ba>- nem bom chien luoc. ten lii.i
dan dao chien lUcJc va chien thuat, va tau ngam nguyen tii) ciing nhU he thd'ng chi huy cung ra't ton kem.
Trong khi dd, can bang vu khi hat nhan lai chi ed tac dung ve mat tam ly: xay diing kho vu khi hat nhan khdng ddng nghia vdi viec sii dung chiing, va neu sii dung thi chi can mdt so' lUdng nhd trong kho vu khi dd cung ed the hiiy diet ca trai da't. Do dd. Lien Xd dudng nhu da hi rdi vao "bay" eua My khi My chii trUdng tang eUdng cang thang qud'e te va chay dua vu trang trong vdng hai ciia Chien tranh Lanh, bat dau tif cud'i thap ky 70 va dau thap ky 80.
Thi2 hai, cuoc khiing hoang dau liia cung tao ra mdt cii bich mdi cho nen kinh te TBCN. Viec giam sU le thudc vao dau liia thdng qua cai tien ky thuat theo hUdng tiet kiem nang lUdng va tang dau tU vao nghien ciiu va phat trien (R&D) eac loai nang lUdng thay the da trd thanh ddng liic mdi cho nen kinh te eua eac nUde nhap khau dau, nhat la Nhat Ban, va phan nao la My, va tii dd lam giam bdt siic ep kinh te va chinh tri eiia OPEC dd'i vdi cac nUdc tU ban phat trien. Khdng phai la dieu ngau nhien khi sau khi khiing hoang dau liia nd ra. Nhat Ban lai trd thanh nUde dau tien dat ducic dia vi cUdng quo'c kinh te tuy van le thudc hoan toan vao nguon dau liia nhap khau.
Ngoai ra. ngay trong nganh cdng nghiep d;\u liia, cac nUdc tU ban phat trien cung ngay cang thu IcJi tif viec tap trung vao cai tien va nam chat viec san xua't nhUng san pham che bien tii dau thd. Ndi mot each khac, cac nUde xua't khdu dau dUdc IcJi mdt thi cac nUdc che bien dau dUde Icii ga'p hai: tii nam 1967 den 1972, cac cdng ty che bien dau Idn ciia phUdng Tay lai 7 t\' mot nam thi lai rieng trong nam 1973 la 11,7 va nam 1974 la 16,4 ty ddla." Dd la chUa ke den viec cac
nude TBCN ve mat thiic te dU(3c hUdng IcJi tii nguon tien doi dao ma eac nUde xua't khau dau lUa cd. Cac cdng ty Idn tren linh vUc budn ban vU khi, xay diing, hang khdng dan dung, tai chinh, bao hiem, giai tri,... ciia My va cac nUdc phUdng Tay ngay cang ed nhieu ddn dat hang tijf cac nUde xuat khau dau liia. NhU vay, khiing hoang dau Ilia d mot khia canh nao dd, lai tao them nhieu cd hdi cdng an viec lam cho cac nUdc TBCN. Cac nUde xuat khau dau liia cd the ed nhieu thu nhap, nhUng dieu dd khdng cd nghia la ho ed the trd thanh nhUng nUde hien dai va van minh. Ddt tang gia dau Ilia hien nay cang khang dinh xu hudng nay: gia dau len van khdng giam di, tang trUdng kinh te the gidi va nhieu nUdc xua't khau dau liia van be tac ve dUdng ldi phat trien kinh te - xa hoi ciia da't nUde.
Nhu vay, khi My ndi rieng va phe TBCN ndi chung rdi vad tinh trang khiing hoang toan dien, dieu dd khdng cd nghia la CNTB lam vao tinh trang khdng ed Id'i thoat. Trai lai, sii phue hdi eiia tU tudng ciic doan trong chinh tri TBCN va viec quay trd lai ly luan kinh dien ve kinh te thi trUdng da tad ra Id'i thoat mdi cho CNTB. Mdt sd' gidi nghien ciiu tham chi da cho rang:
tif nam 1974-1984, do khiing hoang toan dien nen My da ed mot cude cai td ve kinh te va chinh tri.
S\i p h a t t r i e n ciia phong t r a o each m a n g b cac nitdc d a n g p h a t trien
Viec Lien Xd tang cUdng phat huy anh hudng d cac nUde dang phat trien cung tao them ganh nang dd'i vdi nen kinh te Lien Xd, ben canh ganh nang chay dua vu trang. Cd the cho rang viec giiip db each mang the gidi la mot nhiem vu ludn di ciing vdi vi tri eiia Lien Xd tren tU each la lanh dao phe XHCN the gidi. NhUng nhiing nghien ciiu gan day cho tha'y rang cac phong
trao each mang d mdt so' nUdc thudc the gidi thii ba khdng hoan toan mang tinh each mang chan chinh, cung nhu Lien Xd cung khdng hoan toan nhiet tinh va san sang giiip dd mdt sd' phong trao each mang dd. Ngoai ra, mot sd cude each mang khac lai khdng cd lien he gi tdi phe XHCN nhUng v l n bi My gdp vao chien lUdc ehd'ng cdng chung. Hai trUdng hdp dien hinh la Afghanistan va Iran.
Khi cude dao chinh chd'ng chinh phii trung lap Mohammed Daoud do cac si quan quan doi dUdc dao tao d Lien Xd tien hanh nd ra trong thang 4 nam 1978, Lien Xd hoan toan bi bat ngd. NhUng mdt khi chinh phii than Lien Xd ducic lap nen d Kabul, Lien Xd budc phai cdng nhan va cung cap vien trd, du chi diing d vien tr6 tai chinh va ky thuat vdi miic do ban che. Sau cude each mang thang Tu, Afghanistan rdi vad tinh trang bat dn dinh do mau thuan ndi bd dang Cong san cam quyen ket hdp vdi cac yeu td' sac tdc (giiia eac nhdm Khalq va Pareham, Pashtun) va tdn giao (Hdi giao dn hda va ciic doan ciing cac nhanh khac trong tdn giao nay).'°
Thang 3 nam 1979, Tdng thd'ng Mohammed Taraki chinh thUe yeu eau Lien Xd dUa quan vao de dn dinh tinh hinh. NhUng Tdng bi thU Bre-gid- nhep da tra ldi diit khoat: "Chiing ta phai xem xet va'n de nay mdt each toan dien, can nhac ca mat thuan va khdng thuan, va tdi ndi thang vdi ddng chi rang: Chiing tdi khdng the lam the. Dieu nay se chi dUa chiing ta sa vao bay ciia ke thii ciia eac ddng ehi va ke thu ciia chiing tdi."" Den thang Chin, Taraki bi Hafizullah Amin dao chinh va Afghanistan cang rdi vao tinh trang hdn loan. Ngay 27 thang 12, quan dpi Lien Xd tien vao -Afghanistan khdi phue lai chinh quyen dan chii nhan dan va difa Babrak Karmal len lam tdng thd'ng.
Quye't dinh eua Lien Xd dUde dUa ra trong mdt bd'i canh ga'p gap va chii yeu diia tren lap luan rang "eac thanh qua ciia each mang va chinh quyen dan chii.
tien bd d Afghanistan dang hi de doa.'"
Tuy nhien, trong thiie te. Lien Xd lo ngai rang Chinh quyen eiia Amin cd mdt chinh sach ddc lap hdn vdi Lien Xd va do dd cau ket chat che hdn vdi Trung Qudc, Pakistan, va cd the la My. do dd anh hudng den an ninh ciia Lien Xd.
Ket qua la cac sii kien trong chinh tri noi bd eiia Afghanistan, vdi nhiing Id- gich rieng ciia mdt cude ndi chien vdi eac yeu td' sac tdc va tdn giao, hi dat vao trong nhUng tinh toan chien lUdc toan eau eiia Lien Xd, ket hdp vdi y thUe he va bd'i canh quan he Xd - My dang phat trien thed hudng cang thang. Lien Xd do dd can thiep vao Afghanistan, ngay ea khi liic lUdng quan sii chUa san sang, Afghanistan da md dau cho mdt sii can thiep td'n kem ca ngifdi va eiia ddi vdi Lien Xd trong hdn mdt thap ky.
Cung can phai nhan manh mdt thiie te nUa la sU Idn manh ciia Lien Xd va phe XHCN lai day tdi cau ket My-Trung. Til nam 1970 tro di. My va Trung Qud'e ngay cang xich lai gan nhau hdn trong viec lap lien minh tren thiie cha't chd'ng lai Lien Xd. Chi rieng viec dd'i dau vdi Trung Qud'e cung tao them ganh nang cho Lien Xd: neu trong nam 1960, Lien Xd phai duy tri 12 sU doan tren vung bien gidi vdi Trung Qudc, thi con sd dd la 25 nam 1969 va 45 nam 1973. Nam 1969 Lien Xd trien khai 200 may Bay chien da'u thi con sd' nay la 1200 cung vdi 120 ten Ilia dan dao chien thuat SS-11 trong nam 1973.'"
Cac sii kien d Iran cung cd nhUng phat trien dac thii va khdng hoan toan lien quan den nhan dinh chung ve phong trao each mang the gidi tif sau nam 1975. Tren thiie te, khi giao chii Ayatollah Khomeini lanh dao cude each mang d Iran, lat do nha vua Shah va
len nam quyen, dang Cdng san Iran (Tudeh) bi Ddi tii ve Cong hda dan ap da man. Che do mdi d Tehran tuy chd'ng My nhUng lai la mot che do than quyen, hudng tdi xay diing mdt chinh the do Hdi giao cUc doan lanh dao (tiic la khdng the tue) d Iran. Tuy nhien, cude each mang Hdi giao d Iran - vdi ket qua la lam ma't di che dd Shah than My - cung khdng cd tac ddng cd tinh quyet dinh dd'i vdi chinh sach ciia My d khu -vUc Trung Ddng va chinh sach toan eau. Viec sinh vien Iran tan cdng tda Dai sii My, bat nhan 'vien ngoai giao lam con tin, va that bai eua cude giai ciiu con tin eiia My da lam cho chinh quyen Carter mat mat ca trong nude va the gidi. Cac the liic cUc doan thudc ea hai nhanh Dan chii va Cdng hda nhan sii kien nay da tap hdp nhau lai trong nhdm Tan bao thii - nhU da neu d tren - va cang quye't tam gay cang thang, pha hda hoan qud'e te va chd'ng Lien Xd hdn nUa.
T h a y Idfi k e t l u a n
Dudng nhu van cd the tim dUde mot sd' lien he giUa tinh hinh the gidi hien tai vdi nhUng dieu xay ra each day 30 nam tii sau khi Chien tranh Viet Nam ket thiic. Afghanistan va nha't la Iraq cho tha'y My tuy manh len, tuy Tan bao thii mong mud'n My mai duy tri dia vi ba chii bang siic manh quan sii, nhUng My van be tac trong cac cude xung dot khu viic: cude chien tranh vi "trai tim va khd'i de" (mind and heart) van la mot dieu My khdng the thanh cdng. Tinh hinh phiie tap do xung dot sac tdc, tdn giao van dai dang, ba't ke cac cuoc each mang theo hUdng than quyen, XHCN, hay "dan chii hda". va cude da'u tranh vi hda binh. phat trien va tien bd van khdng ngiing tien trien.
Md'i lien he nay do dd cd the chiing td sii tdn tai ciia mot so' ddng chay chinh ciia lich sii quan he qudc te. Theo dd, ta ed the tha'y rang (i) quan he giiia cac
nUde Idn v l n chiem vi tri cd tinh chi phd'i; (ii) tinh than dan toe va ldi ich dan toe van la mot dong liic to Idn trong quan he qudc te; va (iii) nhieu khi nhUng dien bien trong noi bd cua mot nUdc nhd ciing cd the lam phiic tap them md'i quan he giiia cac nUdc Idn.
v a neu nhu vay. viec theo ddi va danh gia tinh hinh qud'e te can ed mdt nhan quan dai ban va toan dien, khdng de nhUng sU kien trUde mat chi phd'i each nhin bao quat va toan canh ve tinh hinh the gidi va quan he qud'e te.
v a nhu vay, trong bd'i canh the gidi ludn thay ddi, each danh gia tinh hinh qudc te diia tren chii nghia yeu nUde va quyen ldi dan toe de tii dd lam cd sd cho viec hoach dinh va trien khai chinh sach dd'i ngoai theo phUdng cham "di ba't bien, iing van bien" do Hd Chii tich day chiing ta cang can phai dUde de cao •
Chd thich:
1) Dang Cong san Viet Nam, Nghi quyet Dai hoi lan thii Tu DCS'VN, (Ha Noi: Nha x u t t ban Sti thftt, 1976), trang 170-173.
2) Xem James Blight (et al). Argument without End: In Search of .Answers to the Vietnam Tragedy, (Washington: Public Affairs, 1999).
:i) Trong Martin Walker, The Cold War: .A History (New York: Henry Holt and Company, 1995), trang 241.
Tham hut kep (ngan sach va thUOng mai) deu dat miic ky luc 23 ty (1971) va 10,7 ty (1970). Nguon da dan.
4) O cap tha'p hOn, nhOlng chien luoc gia nhu Kissinger cung hi that sung vi nhiing hoat dong ngoai giao bi coi la di ngiiOc vdi cac gia tri dan chu My.
.5) Xem Nguyen Vii Tung, "Tim hieu chil nghia Tan bao thu," Tap chi Nghien ciiu quo'c te, so .3/2004.
6) Bruce Bartlett, "The Rise of Neoconservatism,"
(24/8/2003) tren website ciia National Center for Policy Analysis, http://www.ncpa.org.
7) Vi du, Internet la ket qua ciia viec phat trien he thong dieu khien ten liia va vu tru ciia My do Eg quoc phong My tien hanh.
8) Alexei Isaev, Tap chi Cong san (The Communist Review), so thang 5/1989, trich trong Walker, trang 213.
9) Daniel Yergin, The Prize: The Politics of Oil, (New York: Simon&Schuster, 1992) trang 658-6,59.
10) Khi sU doan bg binh so 17 ciia Afghanistan va cac nhom vii trang thuoc phai Shiite noi loan d tinh Herat, hdn 100 c6 van quan sU Lien X6 cung than nhan ciia ho da bi giet va beu xac.
11) -Mikhail Arbatov, The System, (New York: Viking, 1992), trang 198.
12) R. Gartov, Detente and Confrontation, (Wa.shington D.C, Congress Reaserch Unit, 19S.')i. trang 208.
Bdi vie't tham gia De tdi KXOl-03/06-10.
