KINH Te THt Gidl - KHU VU'C
Tac dong cua viec nhan dan te 6WG>C 6u>a vao ro tien te cua Quy Tien te quoc te
TO ANH DirONG'
Ngdy 30/11/2015, Ban Gidm die eua Quy Tiin ti qude ti (IMF) da hodn thdnh viec ddnh gid thu&ng ky (5 ndm/ldn) ve ede dong tiin si dua vdo ro Quyen Rut von dgc biet (SDR) cua IMF. Npi dung chu yiu eua dgt ddnh gid ldn ndy ciia Ban Gidm doc IMF Id lieu dong nhdn ddn te cua Trung Qude (RMB) eo ddp ieng dii ede tiiu chi hiin hdnh di dugc dua vdo rd SDR hay khong. Sau khi ddnh gid. Ban Gidm doc IMF quyet dinh la dong RMB dd ddp ieng tdt cd ede tieu chi hiin hdnh vd si dugc dua vdo ro SDR tie ngdy 1/10/2016. Nhdn ddn te tr& thdnh ddng tiin thie 5 trong ro SDR eiia IMF khong nhung khdng dinh tdm quan trgng ciia Trung Quoc trong hi thong tdi chinh todn edu, md con CO nhitng tde dpng sdu rpng t&i kinh ti thi gi&i, khu vuc vd Viet Nam.
Tir khoa: Nhdn ddn ti, Quy Tien ti quoc ti, ro tiin ti, quyin riit von dge biit.
1. Tieu chi de dong nhan dan tc dirge du-a vao rl tiln te SDR ciia IMF
1.1. Quyen Rdt von dgc biit (Special Drawing Rights - SDR)
SDR la tdi sdn die trit quoc ti dugc tgo ra b&i Quy Tiin ti quoc te (IMF) nam 1969 trong he thdng ty gia cd dinh Bretton Woods', nham bd
TS. Vien Kinh te Viet Nam
' Cac nirac tham gia he thong nay can dy trir chinh thiic (vang, ngoai te manh, trong do co ban la USD) dS mua d6ng noi te tren cac thi trucmg ngoai hoi nham duy tri ty gia cua minh, tuy nhien, vang, USD khong dij de mo rpng thirong mai qu6c te va cac dong v6n tai chinh. Bai vay, cpng dong qu6c tg quyet dinh tao ra SDR - tai san dir trii quoc te moi duoi sy bao trp cda IMF. Nam 1971, he thong Bretton Woods sup do va cac dong ti6n manh chuyen sang he thdng ty gi4 tha nSi. Sir phat triln cua cac thi trucmg von qu6c tS da thuc diy hoat dpng vay/cho vay cua cac chinh phu va nhigu nuoc da tang d4ng ke du trir qu6c te. Sir phat triln nay da lam giam sir phu thupc v^o SDR nhu la tai san dir trir toan cSu.
sung cho dy trii ngoai hdi nha nudc cua cac qudc gia thanh vien, ddng thdi, SDR cdn ddng vai trd la dan vi hach toan ciia IMF va mdt sd td chiic tai chinh qudc te khac. SDR khdng phai la ddng tien va ciing khdng phai la khoan cho vay cua IMF, SDR la khodn vay tiim ndng doi v&i cdc dong tiin "sie dung tie do "(USD, euro, yen Nhat, bdng Anh) cua cdc nu&c thdnh vien IMF, nhiing nudc nam giii SDR cd the nhan dugc USD, euro, yen Nhit, bang Anh (va RMB tir 1/10/2016; bing hai each: 1) Thdng qua thda thuan trao ddi ty nguyen, hoac IMF chi dinh cac thanh vien ed vi the ddi ngoai vilng chac de mua SDR tir cac thanh vien cd vi the ddi ngoai yeu kem. SDR dugc phan bd dya tren han miic (quota) cua cac nudc thanh vien.
Gia tri cua ddng SDR dya tren gia tri binh quan cua rd tien te hien tai bao gdm USD, euro, yen Nhit va bang Anh. Va se md rdng them ddi
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Tac dpng ciia viec nhan dan te dirge du'a vao r6 tien te.. To Anh Du'O'ng
vdi nhan din te (RMB). Rd SDR mdi nay se cd hieu lyc tir ngay 1/10/2016. Tinh din 30/11/2015, cd 204,1 ty SDR (tuang duong 285 ty USD) dugc tao ra va phan bd cho cac nudc thanh vien IMF nham cung cap thanh khoan cho he thdng tai chinh toan cau va bd sung dy trii chinh thiic nham ddi phd vdi khung hoang tai chinh toan ciu.
1.2. Cdc tieu chi de duoc dua vdo ro SDR ciia IMF
Ddng RMB dugc dua vao rd SDR ciia IMF do dap ling dugc ca hai tieu chi sau:
i) RMB tiip tuc ddp itng tiiu ehi vi xudt khdu, theo dd trong giai doan 2010 2015, Trung Qudc la nha xuat khau hang hda va dich vu ldn thir ba the gidi, chi sau khu vyc Euro va My (xem Bang 1). Tieu chi ve xuit khau dugc eoi la "cdng vao" rd SDR cua IMF.
ii) Cimg vdi USD, EUR, yen Nhat, bang Anh, nhan dan te (RMB) dugc coi la ddng tiln
"sir dyng ty do"' (freely usable), cd nghia la ddng tien tren thyc te dugc sir dyng phd bien trong thanh toan giao djch qudc te (vang lai va vdn) va dugc giao dich rdng rai tren cac thi trudng ngoai hdi chu yeu. Cd mdt sd chi sd quan trpng phan anh miic dp sir dung phd bien va giao dich rdng rai cua cac ddng tien trong rd SDR, bao gdm: Ty trgng ddng tien trong dy trU ngoai hdi; du ng chirng khoan qudc te; ng ngan hang quoc tl; Khdi lugng/doanh thu cac giao dich tren cac thi trudng ngoai hoi chii ylu; nim giir dy trii ngoai hdi tai cac ngin hang trung
^Tir khi ra doi (1969) d8n nay (12/2015), co 3 dot phan b6 SDR cho cac nuoc thanh vien, cu thk, dot I (1970 - 72: 9,3 ty SDR; dot 2 (1979 - 81): 12,1 ty SDR; dcrt 3 (ngay 10/8/2009, va ngiy 28/8/2009): 182,6 ty USD;
nham cung c3p thanh khoan cho h6 th6ng tai chinh toan ciu va b6 sung dir trii chinh thiic nhSm d6i pho vai khung hoang t4i chinh toin ciu.
•'' C6 sir khac bigt giua d6ng ti6n"sur dung tir do'Va (16ng tien th4 n6i tir do hoSc d6ng tiln chuyin d6i hoan to^n.
Mpt d6ng tilii co thi duac sii dung va giao dich ph6 biln ngay ca khi d6ng tiln nay la d6i tuong cua nhung han chl ve c4n can v6n. MJt khac, mpt d6ng tiln chuyin d6i hoan toan khong nhit thilt se duoc sii dung ph6 biln va duac giao dich ph6 biln (do quy mo va tim quan trpng cua nln kinh tl trong cac giao djch qu6c tl).
uang (NHTW); phat hanh ng quoc t l ; thanh toan qua bien gidi qua SWIFT; va Tai trg thuang mai qua SWIFT.
Ddng nhan dan te se dugc dua vao rd SDR nhu la ddng tiln thir 5, cung vdi ddla My (USD), ding EUR, yen (Nhat) va bang (Anh).
Viec dua rd SDR mdi vao ngay 1/10/2016 nhim dam bao cd dii thdi gian de IMF va cac nudc thanh vien (hien tai cd 188 nudc, trong dd cd Viet Nam) va nhiing nudc khac sii dung SDR kjp dieu chinh vdi nhirng thay ddi nay.
Ty trgng dong RMB trong ro SDR cua IMF Trong dot danh gia phuang phap dinh gia cac ding tien de dua vao rd SDR lan nay, IMF ap dung cdng thiic mdi trong viec tinh ty trgng tirng ddng tien trong rd SDR.Theo dd, ty trgng cua 5 ddng tien trong rd SDR mdi cd hieu lyc tir ngay 1/10/2016 se la:
USD: 41,73% (so vdi 41,9% vao dgt danh gia nam 2010);
EURO: 30,93% (so vdi 37,4% vao dgt danh gia nam 2010);
RMB: 10,92%;
Yen Nhat: 8,33%> (so vdi 9,4% vao dgt danh gia nam 2010);
Bang Anh: 8,09% (so vdi 11,3% vao dgt danh gia nam 2010).
Nhu vay, ddng nhan dan te (RMB) ciia Trung Qudc se cd ty trgng ldn thii 3 trong r l SDR mdi, chi sau cd USD va EUR. Trong khi dd, 4 ddng tiln "cu" (USD, EUR, yen Nhit, bang Anh) trong rd SDR mdi diu cd ty trgng giam xudng so vdi dgt danh gia trudc day vao nam 2010. Ca cau ty trgng ddng tiln sir dung va giao dich phd biln (USD, EUR, RMB, yen Nhat, Bang Anh) phu thudc vao ty trgng tuang ling cua mdi ddng tien trong du trii ngoai hdi nha nudc tai NHTW cac nudc va gia tri xuit khau hang hda va dich vu cua qudc gia cd ddng tien dd. Bdi vay, ty trgng ddng tien trong rd SDR phan anh tim quan trgng tuang ddi ciia mdi ddng tiln trong thuang mai tpan cau va tai chinh qudc te.
10 -NtiOng vin di KINH T^ VA CHINH TR! THt GICTI So 6 (242) 2016
To Anh Dvong T^c dgng cua vi$c nhan dan t$ du'P'c du'a vao rd tien t?.,
Bdng 1: Xuat khau hang hoa va djch vu
(Binh qudn giai dogn 5 ndm/tong thuang mgi todn cdu, %) 2005 - 2009
Khu VU'C Euro Khu vyc euro My
Trung Qudc Anh Nhit Ban Canada Han Qude Singapore Thyy Sy Nga
Muc ghi nh&:
1 Trung Qudc Dai luc
SDR bn 2.138
1.539 872 780 616 341 296 269 269 268
% 19,8 14,2 8,1 7,2 5,7 3,1 2,7 2,5 2,5 2,5
2 0 1 0 - 2 0 1 4 Khu virc Euro
Khu vuc euro My
Trung Qudc Nhat Ban Vuang qudc Anh Han Qudc Singapore Canada Thuy Sy Nga
SDRbn 2.648 1.978 1.613 728 708 465 401 394 388 387
% 18,2 13,6 11,0 5,0 4,9 3,2 2,8 2,7 2,7 2,7
831 7,7 Trung Qudc Dai luc 1.536 10,6 Nguon: IMF, Trien vgng Kinh ti Thi gi&i; IMF, Hu&ng ddn thing ki thuang mgi.
Ghi chii: 1. bao gom thu nhgp tic tin dung; khong bao gdm xudt khdu npi khdi khu vue 2. Trung Qude bao gom Trung Quoc Dgi lue. Hong Kong vd Macao
Euro.
2. Tac dong cua viec RMB trfr thanh ding tien dv trir quoc tc
2.1. Tde dpng t&l the gi&i, khu vice
Theo ba Christine Lagard Tdng Giam d i e IMF, quyet djnh dua RMB vao rd SDR ciia IMF la mdt diu an quan trgng ve hdi nhip cua nen kinh tl Trung Qudc vao nln tai chinh toan cau. IMF cQng cdng nhin nhimg tiln bd v l cai each he thdng tai ehinh- tiln te ma Chinh phu Trung Qudc da thyc hien trong nhirng nam qua, dieu nay ciing se hd trg tang trudng va su In dinh cua Trung Qudc va nln kinh tl thi gidi.
Tac ddng tdi each tinh gia tri, lai suit, ty gia cua SDR; da dang hda rd SDR
Viec dua RMB vao r l SDR se lam thay ddi each tinh gia tri, lai suit va ty gia cua SDR, qua dd Cling se tac ddng den co ciu, lai suit va ty gia cila cac ddng tien khac trong r l SDR (USD, EUR, yen Nhat, bang Anh), va do vay ciing tac ddng tdi lai suit cac cdng cu tai chinh (ching
han trai phieu), ty gia cua eac ddng tien tren cac thi trudng tai chinh toan eau.
Cu the, gia tri ciia SDR" se dya tren gia tri binh quin ciia rd tien te bao gdm USD, EUR, RMB, yen Nhat va bang Anh. Viec dua RMB vao rd SDR se lam tang tinh hap din cua ddng SDR thdng qua da dang hda rd tien te va lam cho rd nay ed them dai dien cua cac ddng tien chil yeu tren the gidi. Lai suit cua SDR se tilp tuc dugc quyet dinh bdi ty trgng binh quan lai suat ddi vdi cac cdng cu tai chinh ngan han tren thi trudng cua cac ddng tiln trong rd SDR.
Ciing vdi viee dua RMB vao SDR tir 1/10/2016, lai suit tham chieu 3 thang ciia trai philu kho bac Trung Quoc se la cdng cu dugc dinh gia bang RMB trong rd lai suit cua SDR.
•" Khai dau gia trj SDR dupe x4c djnh tuang ducmg 0,888671 grams vang nguyen chit - vao thai dilm do cung tucmg duong 1 USD. Sau khi he th6ng Bretton Woods sup d6 (1973), SDR duac djnh nghia lai nhu mot ro tien te.
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Tac ddng cua viec nhan dan te du.gc dua vao rd tien te.. To Anh Du'O'ng
Ty gia de dinh gia SDR gdm 2 ty gia quan trpng; i) Gia tri SDR dugc tinh bing USD dugc tinh toan hang ngay tren co sd ty gia thj trudng cua cac ddng tiln trong r l SDR liy tir eiing mdt ngudn, va cimg mdt thdi diem; ii) Gia tri SDR tinh bing dong tiln cua tit ca cac thanh vien khac dugc tinh tren co sd ty gia dai dipn ciia nhiing ddng tiln nay so vdi USD. Ddi vdi RMB, ty gia tham chilu cua RMB/USD dugc tinh toan hang ngay bdi He thdng giao dich ngoai hli Trung Quic (CFET) se dugc sir dung lam ty gia dai dien cho RMB.
Cac CO quan ehinh phii ciia cac ddng tien dai dien trong rl SDR, hien da bao gdm ca Trung Quic, dy kiln se duy tri mdt khudn khd chinh sach thiic diy cac boat ddng ciia IMF, cac nudc thanh vien va nhiing nudc khac sir dung ddng SDR.
Tdc dpng t&i todn bp he thong tiin ti quoc te That khd dk danh gia chinh xac tim quan trpng cua viec Nhan dan te dugc dua vao rd SDR ddi vdi toan bd he thdng tien te qudc te.
Tuy nhien, theo udc tinh ciia Ngan hang Standard Chartered, viec dua RMB vao rd SDR cd thi kich thich viec mua rdng trai phieu trong nude ciia Trung Quic len tdi 6,2 nghin ty RMB din culi nam 2020. Cdn cdng ty quan ly dau tu AXA cho ring, khoang 10% trong tdng sd 11,6 nghin ty USD dy trii toan cau se chay vao cac tai san bang ddng RMB.
Tdc dpng t&l ca cdu du trie ngogi hoi cua cdc nu&c
Ciing vdi viec ddng RMB dugc dua vao rd SDR, RMB se tryc tiep hay gian tiep trd thanh ddng tien dy trir qudc te cua cac nude thanh vien IMF (188 nudc), tuy nhien vdi ty trgng khac nhau (tuy thugc vao ty trgng ciia SDR trong CO ciu dy trii ngoai hdi nha nudc ciia moi qudc gia). Hon nira, se cd nhieu hon cac nudc khdng phai la thanh vien ciia IMF ciing cd thi lya chgn RMB trong ca ciu dy trir ngoai hdi nha nude cua minh, mgt khi RMB da la ddng tien dugc sir dung phd biln trong thanh toan giao dich qudc te va dugc giao dich rdng rai tren cac thi trudng ngoai hdi chu ylu.
Thdch thiec: Ngugc lai vdi kha nang giam bdt rili ro tir da dang hda ddng tiln qudc te, nen kinh t l thi gidi va khu vyc cd the phai chiu tac ddng va cd nhilu biln ddng han do nhiing cii sic tir nln kinh t l Trung Qude. Trong khi cd kha nhilu nhiing riii ro cd thi xay ra ddi vdi Trung Quoc trong trung han (rui ro lam phat, bong bdng tai san...) thi viec md rgng nam giii RMB d nudc ngoai cd t h i truyin dan anh hudng tir nhiing riii ro nay ra ben ngoai the gidi.
Ben canh dd, se lam gia tang tinh trang "nhin din te" hda, dae biet la d nhiing nude ed bien gidi giap vdi Trung Qudc.
2.2. Tdc dpng t&i Trung Quoc
Viec dong RMB se dugc dua vao rd SDR ciia IMF tir 1/10/2016 cd y nghTa dac biet quan trgng ddi vdi nln kinh te Trung Qudc - nen kinh t l ldn thii hai the gidi ndi chung, he thdng tai chinh cua nudc nay ndi rieng. Trung Qudc da dat dugc muc tieu' ciia minh tren con dudng dua RMB trd thanh ddng tien dy trii qudc te, tir dd cimg cd vi the ciia nudc nay trong he thdng tai chinh toan cau. Cd the ndi, RMB da trd thanh ddng tien manh, ed vi tri thir 3 trong rd SDR (chi sau USD va EUR), dieu nay phan anh tim quan trgng cua RMB trong thuang mai toan ciu (dieu nay da dugc khang dinh khi Trung Qudc la nha xuit khau ldn thii ba the gidi trong vdng 10 nam lien, tir 2005 - 2014) va tai chinh qudc te (trong eac giao dich tai chinh ciing nhu tren eac thi trudng ngoai hdi chii yeu).
Tdc dpng t&i ty giti, thuang mgi, ddu tu, dieh vu tdi chinh, ng nu&c ngodi eua Trung Quoc:
Ddng RMB trd thanh ddng tien manh se gdp phan giam riii ro ty gia, giam chi phi giao dich thuang mai, dau tu, dich vu tai chinh, ng nudc ngoai... cua Trung Qudc do giam sy phu thugc vao USD va cac ddng tien manh khac (EUR, yen Nhat, bang Anh).
Tgo niim tin cho doanh nghiip, nhd ddu tu:
Viec RMB trd thanh ddng tiln dy trii: qudc te thii 5 trong rd SDR se tao niem tin cho cac nha diu tu, cac doanh nghiep, qua dd Iam giam bdt ' NSm 2010, Trung Qu6c dl xuit dua RMB vao SDR, va dl ra muc tieu hien thirc h6a muc tigu tham vpng nay vao nam2016.
12'- -NhOng vin di KINH T^ VA CHiNH TR.I T H ^ GICTI So 6 (242) 2016
To Anh Dwong Tac dpng cua vi?c nhan dan te du'gc du'a vao rd tien t#..
ludng vdn nudc ngoai (FDI, FII) thao chay khdi Trung Qudc trudc nhirng biln ddng ve ty gia, thi trudng chirng khoan trong thdi gian qua, dac biet la trong Quy III/2015.
Thuc day muc tieu diiu ehinh gidm du trie ngogi hoi vd da dgng hoa die trit ngogi hoi ciia
Trung Quoc:
Trung Qudc la qudc gia cd dy trii ngoai hdi ldn nhit thi gidi vdi 3.899,3 ty USD (tinh din thing 12/2014), tang gin 10 lan so vdi con sd 403,2 ty USD nam 2003 va gip 3 lin nudc diing thii 2 la Nhit Ban. Dy tru ngoai hdi cua Trung Qudc chiem 1/3 tdng sd dy trU ngoai hdi cua the gidi. Nam 2015, du trii ngoai hdi ciia Trung Qudc giam manh do cudc khimg hoang thi trudng chiing khoan cua Trung Qudc, tir cudi nam 2014 den thang 7/2015 dy trii ngoai hdi giam 300 ty USD, cdn 3.650 ty USD. Trong thing 8/2015 va thing 9/2015, Ngin hang Trung uang Trung Qudc (PBOC) sir dung 137 ty USD trong dy trii ngoai hdi de can thiep vao thi trudng ngoai hdi nham giii gia ddng RMB trong bdi canh cac ddng vdn thao chay. Tinh den thing 10/2015, Trung Qudc nam giii mirc dy trQ ngoai hdi khoang 3,5 nghin ty USD.
Ddi vdi boat ddng cua NHTW, dy trii ngoai hdi qua ldn se phat sinh nhieu chi phi va giy nhieu khd khan trong viec dieu hanh chinh sach tien te. RMB dugc dua vao rd SDR, trd thanh ddng tien du trii qudc te se giup cho Trung Qudc thuin lgi trong viec thyc hien myc tieu dieu chinh giam dy trir ngoai hdi va da dang hda dy trii ngoai hdi cua minh. Chinh phu Trung Qudc dang tich cyc tim hudng mdi sir dyng ngudn dy trii ngoai hdi nay nhu giiip do cac doanh nghiep trong nudc md rdng nghiep vu tai nudc ngoai hoac trien khai cae thuang vu sap nhap va chuyen giao (M&A) chii khdng chi dan thuin chi di mua trai phieu chinh phii My nhu trudc kia. NHTW Trung Qudc ciing tam dimg viee can dy qua siu vao thi trudng ngoai hdi cilng nhu giam can thiep vao ddng vdn chay ra nudc ngoai trong thdi gian gin diy. Them vao dd, tinh trang san xuit du thira cua Trung Qudc ngay mdt nghiem trpng ciing thiic day cac doanh nghiep trong nudc hudng ra ben ngoai.
Thdch thiic ddi v&i chinh sdch tiin ti, chinh sdch ty gid vd vdn di kiim sodt luong von vdo/ra eua Trung Qude: Chinh sach tien te, chinh sach ty gia ciia Trung Qudc se philc tap han trong bdi canh cac giao dich vdn dugc tu do hda hon, ddng thdi cung se giam sy ddc lip ciia NHTW trong dilu hanh cac chinh sach nay.
Ciing vdi su gia tang ve thuong mai, diu tu, tai chinh, can cin von se ndi Idng ban va tien tdi ty do hda hoan toan thi Trung Qudc se cd nhieu thach thiic han trong viec kiem soat cac ludng von vao/ra khdi nln kinh te, ciing nhu dam bao sy dn dinh kinh te vT md.
2.3. Tdc dpng t&i Viet Nam
Viet Nam la thanh vien ciia IMF^ hien tai vdn cd phin cua Viet Nam tai IMF da tang tir 0,4607 ty SDR (tinh tdi 31/5/2014) len 1,1531 ty SDR (tang them 692,4 trieu SDR nam 2015)^, ty le cd phin eiia Viet Nam cung dugc tang tir 0,193% len 0,242%. Dilu nay phan anh thanh tyu kinh te va vi the tieng ndi ngay cang tang cua Viet Nam tren cac dien dan qudc te.
Ciing vdi viec RMB dugc dua vao SDR, theo IMF", cac qude gia thanh vien cua IMF (bao gdm ca Viet Nam), cac ca quan chinh phu ciia eae nudc thanh vien, va nhirng nudc/td chile nam giir SDR khac can cd each tiep can phu hgp vdi cac cdng cu dugc dinh gia bang RMB eho mue tieu quan ly dy trir ngoai hdi nha nudc va kha nang phdng ngira cac nii ro.
Tdc dpng din ca cdu du trit ngogi hoi nhd nu&e Theo IMF'^ "Dy trir ngoai hdi ciia mdt qudc gia la nhiing tai sin ngoai hdi ma NHTW quan ly va sir dyng nham tai trg tryc tiep cho thim hyt can can thanh toan hoac gian tiep thdng qua
^ Nam 1976, nu6c Cpng hoa xa hpi Chu nghTa Viet Nam chinh thiic kg tuc quy che hpi vien (chinh quygn Sai gon cu gia nhap IMF tu 21/9/1956) tai IMF va dupe quyen huong cac khoan vay tir IMF.
' Viet Nam tSng v6n c6 phin 150% trong dot ra soat vdn CO phan tong thg lan 14 cua IMF nam 2015.
" Ngu6n: IMF, Review Metog Valuation of SDR, thang 8/2015.
'' Nguon: Cam nang Can can Thanh toan qu6c te cua IMF xuit ban lan thii 5.
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Tac ddng cua viec nhan dan te dirge dua vao rd ti6n te.. To Anh Du'O'ng
can thiep ty gia va tai tro cho mdt sd nhu ciu chimg khoan); vang tiln te; Quyln Riit vdn dac khac, dy trir ngoai hli bao gdm cac loai tai sin biet (SDR); Han miic du trii tai IMF; Cac tai ngoai hli sau: Ngoai hdi (nhu tiln mat, tiln giri, sin ngoai hot khac".
Bdng 2:
Co- cau ngoai tc trong du- tru- ngoai hoi toan cau
Don vi: % trong tdng die trit todn cdu Ngoai teDd la My (USD) Ddng euro (EUR) Bang Anh (GBP) Yen Nhit (JPY) Dd la Uc (AUD) Dd la Canada (CAD) ^^
Nhan dan te (RMB) Dd la Newzealand (NZD) Frang Thuy Sy (CHF) Krone Na Uy (NOK) Khac
2013 TySDR
2.701 1.041 187 147 98 87 29 11 10 9 6,6
%
61,3 23,7 4,2 3,3 2,2 2,0 0,7 0,2 2,2 2,2 1,9
So nu-o'c bao cao
127 109 108 87 79 84 27 27 73 45
2014 T y S D R
2.961 978
190 160 98 92 51 11 11 9 73
%
63,7 21,0 4,1 3,4 2,1 2,0 1,1 0,2 0,2 0,2 1,9
So nu-ffc bao cao
127 108 109 88 78 85 38 69 29 40
Nguon: IMF, Khdo sdt cdc nu&e thdnh viin.
Ghi chii: Khdo sdt bao gom 16 dong tiin.
Viet Nam la thanh vien cita IMF. Trong co cau dy trii ngoai hdi nha nudc ciia Viet Nam cd SDR'", bdi vay, khi RMB dugc dua vao rd SDR, mdt each gian tiep, trong co ciu dy trir ngoai hdi nha nudc cua Viet Nam da cd ddng RMB. Ngan hang Trung uong cin duy tri mdt miie dy trO ngoai hdi diy du dl dap iing nhu cau ngoai te eua nln kinh tl va tao nilm tin cua cdng chiing vdi chinh sach ty gia eua NHTW.
Tai Viet Nam, trong quan ly dy trU ngoai hdi nha nudc, muc tieu chinh la dam bao thyc thi chinh sach ty gia, ehinh sach tiln te qudc gia, va kha nang thanh toan qudc tl, muc tieu lgi nhuan thudng dugc xip sau, nhung van phai bao dam
"SDR dupe phan b6 dira trgn han miic (quota) cua cac nudc thanh vign.
hieu qua sir dung vdn d miic tdt nhit cd thi.
Chinh vi vay, viec duy tri mdt ca ciu dy trii ngoai hdi hgp ly, dac biet trong bii canh the gidi diy bien ddng, kinh te vi md ed nhieu bit dn la mdt vin de rat quan trgng ddi vdi Ngan hang Nha nudc Viet Nam.
Vdi quy md dy trii ngoai hdi khdng ldn (mac
du da dugc cai thien trong nhiing nam gin day)
trong khi kim ngach nhap khau ludn tang manh
(do phuc vu san xuat trong nudc) nen Ngin
hang Nha nudc Viet Nam ludn uu tien nam giQ
cac ngoai te manh dl phuc vu cho thanh toan
nhip khau ciing nhu cac khoan vay ng nudc
ngoai den han hon la nim giir vang. Ngin hang
Nha nudc Viet Nam da xay dyng co cau dy trii
ngoai hdi nha nudc kha phii hgp vdi cac dieu
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-NhOng vin di KINH T^ VA CHINH TRj TH^ GICTI S6 6 (242) 2016To Anh Du'O'ng Tac dgng cua viec nhan dan t$ du'gc dua vao ro tien te..
kien kinh te trong nudc va the gidi. Theo dd, tir nam 2007, Ngan hang Nha nudc Viet Nam da phan bd ca ciu dy trU theo hudng chuan cua qudc te trong do USD chilm khoang 55%, EUR khoang 30%), cdn lai la eac ngoai te khac nhu GBP (bang Anh), JPY (yen Nhit), CHF... Tuy nhien, trong thdi gian gin day EUR ludn cd xu hudng giam gia do tac ddng tieu eye ciia cudc khimg hoang ng cdng nen ty trgng EUR trong CO ciu dy trii ngoai hdi giam din, ty trpng USD tang len. Ciing vdi dd, ty trpng JPY trong dy trii ngoai hdi ciia Viet Nam eiing ed xu hudng tang nhe do Nhat Ban hien la mdt trong nhimg qudc gia tai trg rat nhieu dy an dau tu tai Viet Nam.
Da dgng hoa tien te trong thanh todn vd du trir quoc ti & Viet Nam se gdp phin giam thieu nhiing tdn thit va rui ro eho cac doanh nghiep ndi rieng va bao dam an ninh tai ehinh qude gia ndi chung. Cimg vdi cac tien te khae nhu EURO, JPY, GBP... thi RMB dang la mdt trong nhiing ddng tien dugc nhieu qudc gia trong dd cd Viet Nam phai can nhac va tinh toan dua vao rd tien te ciia minh, dac biet khi ddng tien nay se dugc dua vao rd SDR tir ngay 1/10/2016. Vdi tu each la ddng tien trong rd SDR, RMB cd the chuyen ddi de dang sang USD, EUR, JPY, GBP. Hon niia, Trung Quoc lai la ddi tac thuang mai ldn ciia Viet Nam, thi viec cin nhac dua RMB vao eo eau dy trir ngoai hdi nha nudc ciia Viet Nam hay khdng va d ty trgng nao la van de rit dang quan tim.
Bang 2 cho thay, sd nudc thanh vien IMF nam giU RMB tang manh trong nam 2014 (38 nudc) so vdi 27 nude nam 2013, ddng thdi ty trgng RMB trong tdng dy trii ngoai hdi toan cau ciing tang tuong iing tir miic 0,7% (tuong duong 29 ty SDR) nam 2013 len 1,1% (tuang duang 51 ty SDR) nam 2014.
Tdc dpng den su phdt trien kinh te cda Viet Nam
'*Tde dpng tich cue
Trong thuang mgi song phuang: Mdt trong nhirng tac ddng tich cyc cua viec RMB trd
thanh ddng tiln thanh toan qudc te dd la Viet Nam cd thi sir dung RMB nhu mdt ngoai te de thanh toan thuang mai vdi Trung Qudc, da dang hda ngoai te thanh toan, giam su tip trung vao USD, giam sue ep len nhu ciu sir dung USD va giam chi phi chuyen ddi ngoai te.
Trong dau tu vd vay na: Cd the ndi, tic ddng tich cyc ndi bat nhat cua viec qudc te hda RMB doi vdi lmh vyc diu tu va vay ng ciia Viet Nam dd la sy da dang hda ddng tien se gdp phin lam tang sy sdi ddng ciia thi trudng vdn Viet Nam, tang trien vgng, cQng nhu kha nang tilp can ngudn vdn vay, cflng nhu da dang hda khoan vay theo loai tien te giu-a Viet Nam vdi Trung Quoc va vdi cac nudc khac sir dung RMB. Tuy nhien, viec dau tu, vay ng bang RMB se phai cin nhac thin trgng ban vdi nhirng rui ro cd the phat sinh.
*Tdc dpng tieu cue
Trong thuang mai song phuang: neu Viet Nam khdng cd mdt ehien luge hieu qua de dieu chinh CO ciu hang hda xuit nhip khiu vdi Trung Qudc thi nguy ca ndi rdng nhap sieu cua Viet Nam vdi Trung Qudc van tiep tuc tang.
Dieu nay lam gia tang sire ep ve nhu ciu RMB len doanh nghiep Viet Nam de thanh toan cho ddi tac Trung Qudc. Cimg vdi viec RMB dugc dua vao rd SDR cua IMF, ddng nghia vdi viee RMB da trd thanh ddng tien thanh toan qude te phd bien se cang md rdng pham vi sir dung RMB vao siu trong lanh thd Viet Nam cung vd hinh chung gdp phin tang cudng nhip khiu tir Trung Qudc, dan den ngay cang le thudc vao ngoai thuang vdi nudc nay.
Trong ddu tu: Trong nhiing nam gin day, ddng vdn cua Trung Qudc ngay cang tang, mac du van chiem ty le kha nhd trong tdng vdn FDI vao Viet Nam. Theo thdng ke, cd tcii 90% cae cdng trinh dien, khai khoang, diu khi, luyen kim, hoa chat cua Viet Nam do nha thiu Trung Qudc dam nhan. Cung vdi viec thue diy tien trinh qudc te hda ddng RMB, ddng RMB trd thanh ddng tien thanh toan va dy trir quic tl, Trung Qudc se day manh viec sir dung RMB trong cac dy an nudc ngoai. Hien nay, cac dy an
NhOng vin di KINH Tt VA CHINH TRj TH^ GICTI So 6 (242) 2016-
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Tac dpng ciia viec nhan dan te du-gc dua vao rd tidn te... 10 Ann uu'O'ng
nudc ngoai sir dung RMB ciia Trung Qudc edn ban chl. Vi vay, viec Trung Qudc yeu cau cac doanh nghiep gia tang sir dung RMB trong cae dy an tai Viet Nam la tit ylu. Trong ITnh vyc diu tu, Viet Nam cin than trgng vdi nguy ca trd thanh nai tieu thy cdng nghe cu, lac hau cho Trung Quic va la mgt trong nhiing nguyen nhan lam tang nhip sieu tir Trung Qudc vao Viet Nam.
Tde dpng din hi thong tiin te cita Viet Nam Tie ddng tich cyc: Viec sir dung RMB trong cac quan he thanh toan thuang mai, vay ng se gdp phin da dang hda cae loai ngoai te, giam siic ep ve USD ddi vdi eung ciu ngoai te, qua dd giam ty le dd la hda eua nen kinh te.
Tdc dpng tiiu CM-CTrung Qudc la mdt qudc gia manh ca ve vi the ehinh tri lan tiem lyc kinh te, dang din vuan len trd thanh cudng qudc kinh te hang dau cua the gidi. Viec md rdng pham vi sir dung RMB trong lanh thd Viet Nam cd the tao nen nguy ca "Nhin dan te hda" eua nen kinh te, khien nen kinh te Viet Nam trd nen nhay cam va phu thudc hon vao nen kinh te Trung Qude.
De giam thieu cac tac ddng tieu cyc, Viet Nam can xay dyng mgt ehien luge tai ehinh
tiln te tdng thi gin vdi chien luge phat trien kinh t l - xa hdi qudc gia. Trong dd, cin cd cac kich ban v l cac tac ddng trong nudc va qudc tl din nln tiln te trong nudc theo tirng thdi ky va dl xuit giai phap irng phd. Ddng thdi, dilu hanh chinh saeh tiln te chat che, linh hoat, phdi hgp ddng bg vdi chinh sach tai khda va cac chinh sach kinh t l vT md khac nham muc tieu uu tien kilm soat lam phat, dn dinh kinh te vT md, ho trg tang trudng kinh te, dn dinh gia tri VND, ning cao nhan thirc, ciing cd va tang cudng nilm tin ciia dan chung trong viee sir dung va luu thdng VND. Van dung linh hoat, hieu qua cac cdng cu chinh sach tien te, trong dd dae biet chii y phat huy tac ddng tich eye cua cac cdng cu lai suit, ty gia nham tang tinh linh hoat trong dieu hanh chinh sach tien te cua Ngin hang Nha nudc nham iing phd vdi cac tinh hudng phat sinh tren thi trudng tai chinh.
Ben canh dd, tiep tuc hoan thien khudn khd phap luat ve tai chinh tien te nham tao hanh lang phap ly day du eho hoat ddng thuang mai, dau tu, vay ng, thanh toan giira Viet Nam va cac ddi tic, trong dd cd Trung Qude, phii hgp vdi nhiing thay ddi ve chinh sach thuang mai cua cac ben*
Tai lieu tham khao:
1. IMF (2013): Special Drawing Right (SDR) Allocations, ngay 5/8.
2. IMF (2015): ReviewMetog Valuation of SDR, thang 8/2015.
3. IMF (2015): Review of the Special Drawing Right (SDR) Currency Basket, ngay 30/11.
4. IMF: c i m nang Can cin Thanh toan qudc t l xuit ban lin thii 5.
