LePHANTHIDieUTHAO«LeTHjTH0YHANG
Quoc te hoa nhan dan te va tac dong cua no den an ninh tai chinh Viet Nam
Le Phan Thj Dieu Ttiao™* Le Tlii Thuy Hang"
Ngay n h | n bai: 08/10/2016 | Bien t a p x o n g : 10/11/2016 | Duyet dang: 20/11/2016
TOM TAT: Nhan dan te cua Trung Quoc (CNY) di/dc sCf dung ngay cang pho bien trong hoat dong thanh toan, dau tu' va du" trff quoc te. Nghien ciJu cho thay nhufng l<et qua dat dUtic trong qua trinh quoc te hoa CNY cua Trung Qu6c. Bai Viet cQng phan ti'ch tac dong cua qua trinh nay den an ninh tai chi'nh cua Viet Nam qua viec xem xet anh hi/dng cua no den tmh hinh dau tu', xuat nhap khau va ty gia hoi doai cua Viet Nam. Cuoi cung, bai viet da gdi y mpt so glai phap nhlm giam bdt tac dong bat Idi cua qua trinh quoc te hoa CNY den an ninh tai chi'nh cua Viet Nam.
XD'KHbA: quoc te hoa, nhan dan te, an ninh tai chi'nh.
1. Gidi thi^u
Trong nhilu th|p niln gin 6&y, Trung Qu6c da d^t d\l<fc nhutng btldc phit trien v\i<fl b|c vk trd thknh m$t trong nhiing cildng qu6c kinh t l hkng dau trin the gidi. T6ng sin phim qudc n^i (GDP) danh nghia cixa Trung Qudc Udrc tinh si d?it 28.250 ty USD (d6 la My) v4o nim 2024, vtJ(?t con sd 27.310 ty USD ciia My, trd thinh nln kinh t l sd mdt the gidi. GDP cua Tnmg Qudcse chilm 20% GDP toin clu trong nim 2025, Tnmg Qudc se trd thinh nln kinh t l Idn nhit thi gidi vio nim 2024 (HIS, 2014). Mit khic, Trung Qudc cdn c6 di^ trii qudc t l dutng diu thi gidi vi li chu ncf Idn nhit cua M^ (Reuters, 2016). Vi thi, CNY ciia Tnmg Qudc dang tiing bUdc dil^c qudc t l hda. Din cudi nim 2013, CNY di trd thinh ddng tiln dtl(7c sil dving nhilu thii hai trong tii chinh, thifong mai vi ddng tiln diioc sii dvmg nhilu thii chin trong thanh toan toin cSu, CNY di tiing bildc dvtifc khu vvIc hda vi
dang tiing bildc htldng tdi muc tilu qudc t l hda trong bdi cinh nln kinh t l Trung Qudc ngiy cing gia ting anh hildng ddi vdi kinh t l khu vvtc vi thi gidi (Subramanian vi Kessler, 2013). Qua trinh qudc t l hda CNY khdng nhiing inh hildng din chinh sich tiln t | cua Trung Qudc mi cdn tic ddng din tinh hinh an ninh tii chinh cua cic nUdc khic, die bi|t nhQng nildc cd mdi quan h | kinh t l chit che vdi Trung Qudc. Vi thi, qui trinh qudc t l hda CNY cd tic dpng khdng nhd din tinh hinh an ninh tii chinh cua Vi^t Nam.
nj Le Phan Thj Dl^u T h i o - TriTdng 0^1 hpe N g i n h i n g TP.HCM; So 36T6nThgt 0 ? m , PhUdng NguySnThii Binh;
Q u i n 1; Tp. Ho Chi Minh; Email: [email protected].
m Le Thj Thiiy H i n g - Tri/Sng B?i hpe TJi chfnh - Marketing; So 2/4 T r i n Xuin So^n, Phi/ctng T i n Thuin Tly, Quan 7; Tp. Ho Chi Minh; Email: hangleufm@>gmail.com.
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2. Quoc te hoa ban t e va van de an ninh tai chinh
2.1. Quoc te hda ban te
Mot ddng tien qudc gia dUOc xem la quoc te hda neu nd vin thilc hien tat ca cac chiic nang tien te bao gdm philong tien cat trii, philong tien trao doi va thildc do gia tri khong nhiing ben trong mi cdn ca ben ngoai lanh tho qudc gia dd (Frankel, 2012). Ddng tien qudc te hda Vila li dong tien phap dinh trong chinh qudc gia ciia minh, viia la ddng tien qudc te diloc cac quoc gia khac sii dvmg do sU lUa chon ciia thi tnidng.
2.2. Dae diem cua mot dong tien qudc te hda Hi|n nay, tren the gidi chi cd USD vi EUR (Euro) la hai ddng tien qudc te hda (Chen va Peng, 2010). Hai ddng tiln qudc te hda niy cd nhiing die tning sau:
Mdt Id, quy md sii diing cua dong tiln qudc tl hda phai Idn. Do khdi lilong hang hda, dich vu va tii san tii chinh Idn cua qudc gia cd ddng tiln qudc t l hda, cac quan he thilong mai vi tii chinh giQa qudc gia niy vi thi gidi' chiem mpt ty trpng Idn, thiic day nhu cSu sii dimg ddng tiln ciia nd de dinh gii trong cac quan he kinh tl.
Hai li, ddng tiln qudc t l hda phai cd kha ning thanh toan qudc t l rdng rai. Yeu td niy ddi hdi mot ddng tiln mudn dilpc qudc t l hda thinh cdng thi phii dupe nhilu td chiic, ca nhan trong vi ngoii nildc si dtmg trong hoat ddng thanh toan qudc te cua minh.
Ba Id, miic dp tinh nhilm cao cua ddng tien qudc te hda. Qudc gia cua ddng tien qudc te hda phii cd mpt he thdng tii chinh rat phat trien, cung cap nhieu cdng cu bao hiem nil ro vi nhu cau kinh doanh da dang cua nha dau til. Do vi thi cua ddng tiln qudc t l hda dilpc nang cao, nd dvlpc cac qudc gia lUa chpn trong ngudn dil trii ngoai hdi.
2.3. An ninh tai chinh
Theo Ngin hang Trung UOng Chau Au (ECB, 2016), an ninh tii chinh la mpt trang thai siic khde linh manh cua he thdng tii
chinh ma trong dd, cac yeu td bio v | riii ro cho he thdng tai chinh bio ve tang tnidng kinh te khdi sil tdn thuong va bi anh hildng ve vat chat bdi nhiing cii sdc tic dpng til ben trong vi ben ngoai he thdng tii chinh.
Riii ro tic dpng den an ninh tai chinh co the xuat phat til ba ngudn:
(i) SU mat can bang tai chinh gia tang cd the dan den mdt chu ky khung hoang tai chinh;
(ii) Nhiing cii sdc tdng hop tvl ben ngoai vao nen kinh te hoac he thdng tai chinh;
(iii) Hieu ling lay lan tren thi trildng, cac trung gian hoac co sd ha tang, cac yeu td tai chinh nhil dii trfl ngoai hdi, np chinh phii, tham hut can can vang lai... cd the tic dpng tieu cUc din tang trildng kinh t l vi dan den tinh hinh bat dn ddi vdi nln tai chinh mpt qudc gia.
3. Qua trinh quoc t e hoa cua CNY 3.1. L^ do Trung Qudc tien hanh qudc t l hoa CNY
Khdng gidng nhil USD va EUR, CNY van chila dilpc nhilu qudc gia lUa chpn trong cac hoat dpng thuong mai va tii chinh mac dii Trung Qudc li nUdc xuat khau Idn nhat thi gidi. Dieu niy xuat phat til vi$c Trung Qudc da giau ddng ban tl khdi thi trUdng qudc tl vi ip diing nhiing biln phap h^n che mua ban nhim tao nln mdt tam la chin bao vl Trung Qudc trUdc ddng chay vdn that thudng, ddng thdi giiip hing hda cua Trung Qudc cd gia re thdng qua chinh sach pha gia tien te cua minh. VI viy, viec qudc t l hda ddng CNY se budc Trung Qudc phii til bd muc tilu kiem soat ddng luan chuyen vdn, lai suat va ty gia hdi doai. Hon nfla, cac nUdc cd ddng tiln qudc t l diu chap nhan miic tham hut ngin sach vi tham hut tai khoan vang lai Idn nham tang cung tiln ra nUdc ngoii. Nhflng ylu td tren din den riii ro Idn la lim gia tang tinh bit dn vl ty gia vi biln dpng cho nln kinh te Trung Qudc vi dd cung chinh la ly do Dflc vi Nhit Ban khdng thiic day qui trinh qudc t l hda ddng tiln ciia hp.
Trung Qudc thtlc hi|n qudc tl hda ddng CNY vdi muc tilu sau:
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Thti nhdt, cac hoat ddng thflong mai, tii chinh vi dau hi ciia cac ca nhin vi td ehflc trong nUdc se giam thieu rui ro ve ty gia. Neu CNY duoc qudc te hda cac hpp ddng xuat khau va nhap khau dUOc thflc hiln bang CNY vi vile dd lam giam tinh trang phu thudc vao ngoai tl khac vi han che dflpe rui ro do ty gia bien dpng. Cae tii san tai ehinh qudc te dflpe dinh gia bang CNY se giam bdt chinh lech va it bi nii ro ty gia hon.
Thti hai, viec qudc te hda ddng tiln qudc ndi li tien dl de xay dflng trung tam tii chinh qudc tl tai Trung Qudc. Cae dinh chl tai chinh ciia Trung Qudc ed lpi the hon cac ddi thu canh tranh khi tien hinh huy dpng vdn bang CNY tren thi trfldng qudc tl.
Thti ba, vile qudc te hda CNY se day manh qua trinh sfl dung CNY trong thanh toan bien miu vi thuc day eae boat dpng thflOng mai gifla cac nflde cd ehung biln gidi vdi Trung Qudc sfl dimg CNY lim ddng tiln giao djch trong thanh toan bien miu. Dilu niy giup giam bdt chi phi vasfl phii thupe vao ddng tien thfl ba.
Thti tti, nflde cd ddng tien qudc t l hda se thu thul due tiln cua nflde nam gifl ddng tien cua minh. Nghia li khi can tai trp cho tinh trging ngin saeh thim hut, Trung Qudc cd the in them tiln vi se lim eho CNY trd nln mat gii. Tuy nhiln, ehi phi ddng tien bi mat gia se do cac nflde nam gifl CNY phai ganh chiu. Ylu td niy cd tinh hai mat vi nlu bi lam dung thi se dan din tinh trang gia tri eua CNY bi giam sut vi bi thi trfldng bii trfl sfl dung.
Thti nam, Trung Qudc se gia tang gii tri cua cic tii sin ciia minh neu qudc te hda thinh cdng CNY. Trung Qudc la chu no Idn nhat thi gidi, do viy neu cho vay bang CNY thi se giam rui ro vi tao dflpe lpi thi ding kl cho cac nhi dau tfl Trung Qudc. Trung Qudc da cd gang da dang hda bang each chuyen sang cae edng cii dau tfl lai suat cao hpn nhflng se phai chap nhin riiiro khi tien hinh ehuyln khu vflc dau tfl sang cac nln kinh tl mdi ndi hoac khien cac tii sin dang nim gifl tai My mat gii khi bi bin thio. Vl viy, nlu Tnmg Qudc tien hinh qudc te hda thanh cdng ddng bin tl eua minh thi se khdng cdn phu thupe vi chiu sfl inh hfldng
ning ne tfl lai suit thap va tiln te yeu di eua cae ddng ngoai te khac. Mat khic, hp cd the hfldng lpi tfl npi tl manh khi ehuyln tfl nflde xuat khau sang nhip khau sau niy vi khi cd nhu cau vay thi ngfldi vay np trong nflde cd the vay trin thi trfldng trong nflde bang CNY vdi chi phi re hon.
Viec qudc te hda ddng CNY ddi hdi Trung Qudc phii chap nhan tU do hda tii khoan vdn, tfl do hda Iii suit va khdng thi dilu chinh chinh sach ngoai hdi theo ehu y cua minh. Nd cd the lim cho nln kinh te Trung Qudc de bi tdn thflong hpn va ddi mat vdi khung hoang tiln te khi cic nhi dau tfl nflde ngoai nam gifl nhflng edng cu tai chinh bang CNY ddng loat ban cie tii sin niy. Tuy nhien, vile tfl do hda tai khoin vdn cung se giup cho Trung Qudc phat trien vi hoin thien thi trfldng vdn trong nflde nham tao dilu kiln de ddng luan chuyen vdn trong nln kinh te dflpe thdng sudt vi tao vung dim cho viec thflc hiln chinh sach tien tl hi|u qui hpn.
3.2. Nhiing kit qua dat dflpe trong qui trinh qudc te hda CNY ciia Trung Qudc
Trung Qudc khdng dfla ra lich trinh cii cich eu the nhflng HSBC du bao din nam 2020 CNY se trd thanh ddng tiln hoin toan cd kha nang chuyen ddi (HSBC, 2012). Qui trinh qudc t l hda CNY di dat dUpc mpt sd kit qua sau:
Mot, CNY dflpe sfl dung ngiy cing nhilu trong eic boat dpng thflpng mai qudc te.
Trung Qudc da dan dan ndi Idng cae gidi ban ddi vdi CNY. Nim 2011, Trung Qudc cho phep tat ea cae doanh nghilp npi dia dflpe thanh toan ngoai thflpng vdi tat ei cae nflde trin thi gidi bang ddng CNY. Thing 6/2014, CNY di vflpt Franc Thiiy Sy di chilm vi tri thfl bay trong nhflng ddng tiln dflpe sfl dung phd biln trong thanh toin qudc tl, thing 10/2014, CNY da vflpt qua Dd la Ue vi Dd la Canada dl trd thinh ddng tiln dflpe sfl dung thanh toin nhilu thfl nim trin thi gidi, gan tilp can vdi Yen Nhat. Mfle dp sfl dung CNY trong thanh toan qudc te trong hai nam 2012-2014 di tang tren 321% (IMF, 2014). Giao dich bang CNY di
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phu gan 200 qudc gia va vimg lanh tho tren the gidi. Hiln nay, thi phan cie giao dich thflpng mai toin eau cua Trung Qudc thflc hiln bang CNY eung da ting hon 20%, CNY eua Trung Qudc di vflpt qua JPY (ddng Yen) cua Nhat Ban trd thanh ddng tien dflpe sfl dvmg nhilu thfl tfl trong boat ddng thanh toin tren the gidi. Trong ba nim qua, CNY da vflpt qua bay ddng tiln khac vi hien chi dflng sau USD, EUR vi GBP trong danh sich eae ddng tien diiac sfl dvmg nhilu nhat trong giao dich thanh toan tren thi gidi (SWIFT, 2016).
Hai, dau tfl trfle tilp vi giin tiep bang CNY dflpe khuyin khich md rdng ra nflde ngoii.
Thing 01/2011, Trung Qudc di ed quy dinh vl Dau tfl trflc tilp nflde ngoai bang ddng CNY (RMB Overseas Direct Investment-ODI) cho phep cie doanh nghilp Tnmg Qudc dau tfl ra nflde ngoii bang ddng bin tl. Tiiy nhiln, cic nhi dilu tilt thi trfldng ciia nflde niy vin sfl dung cie cdng cii can thilp han chl thi trfldng nln lam giim sfl thu hut tfl cic nhi dau tfl qudc tl. Cy thi nhfl mpt sd chinh sich ngflng giao dich c6 philu nguy hilm trin thi trfldng, cam hoat ddng bin khdng hay diy gii thi trfldng thdng qua cic quy diu tfl nhi nflde. H | qua li vio nim 2016, ddng vdn diu tfl nflde ngoii dd vio Tnmg Qudc da giim di ding kl (Reuters, 2016).
Ba, Trung Qudc di thflc hi|n hoin ddi tiln tl vdi nhilu qudc gia. Sau khi k^ thda thu|n hoin ddi tiln tl diu tiln vdi Hin Qudc vio nim 2008, din nay Trung Qudc da ky hpp ddng hoin ddi tiln t | vdi gin 30 nflde (Campanella, 2014). Diy li mdt tiln dl rit quan trpng eho mye tilu qudc t l hda ddng CNY cua Trung Qudc vi vile k^ cic thda thuin hoin ddi tiln tl si khpi thdng khi ning dimg ddng CNY trong thanh toin ngoai thflpng vi trong dfl trfl ngo?ihdi cua cic nflde ddi tic vdi tilm ning trd thinh ddng tiln dflpe qudc t l hda thinh cdng vio nim 2020.
Bdn, thi tnidng trii philu di kit ndi thinh cdng thi trfldng nflde ngoii vdi thi trfldng chflng khoin trong nflde. Nim 2011, Trung Qudc cung Hdng Kong khdi dpng chflong trinh thfl nghilm RQFII cho phep cac nhi diu
tfl nflde ngoii cd du dieu kiln dau tfl bing CNY vao chflng khoin, cd philu Trung Qudc Yiic nay da ddng gdp ding kl vio sfl ting tnidng cic cdng cu dau tfl bang CNY t ^ Hdng Kdng.
Thi tnidng chiing khoan kit ndi Thflpng Hai vi Hong Kong dflng thfl hai t h i gidi vl mfle vdn hda ciing nhfl sd cdng ty nilm yit vi dflng thfl ba thi gidi vl doanh thu (Cheung vi Rime, 2013). Day la mdt bUdc tien nfla cua Trung Qudc nham ndi Idng thim quan ly ddng luin chuyen vdn vi li bUdc tien quan trpng trong vile minh bach hda thi trfldng, nhflng mvic tilu can diiac thflc hiln de tiln tdi qudc t l hda ddng CNY
Ndm, Trung Qudc da thinh lip cic trung tim tii chinh dl ning cao vi thi CNY. Hong Kong trd thinh trung tim giao dich CNY dau tiln ngoii Trung Qudc khi Bank of China Hong Kong dupe chi dinh lim ngin hing thanh toin ddng tiln niy t?i diy Nim 2009, Luin Ddn li trung tim tilp theo, clu ndi quan trpng de Trung Qudc tiln hinh dfla CNY vio giao dich d thi trfldng chiu Au. Din gifla nim 2012, ca Hdng Kdng vi Luin Ddn di trd thinh hai trung tim CNY d nflde ngoii eho mdt loat td chfle vi doanh nghiep. Nim 2013, Singapore trd thinh trung tim kl tilp khi Ngin hing Cdng ThflOng Trung Qudc (ICBC) dflpe chl dinh thanh toin bing ddng CNY di kit ndi vdi cic nUdc d khu vvtc Ddng Nam A. Thing 9/2013 Trung Qudc cdng bd dfl thio kl ho?ch cho phlp CNY dfldc ehuyln ddi hoin toin trong Khu vflc thflong m?i ti^ do Thflpng Hii (FTZ) (Cheung vi Rime, 2013).
Nhu viy, cic thinh phd niy se li cic bin dap quan trpng dl Trung Qudc thim nh|p vio cic thi trfldng tii chinh toin clu, ning cao vj thi trong giao dich vi sfl dung ddng CNY. Mit khic, mdt trong nhflng thinh cdng Idn nhit eua Trung Qudc trin thi trfldng tii chinh toin clu tdi nay chfnh li thinh lip dflpe Ngin hing Diu tfl Ha ting chiu A (AIIB) vi klu gpi dflpe nhilu nflde tham gia vio ngin hing niy. Dd se li CO sd dl Trung Qudc dl xuit cic khoin vay bing ddng CNY trong tflPng Iai.
Sdu, Trung Qudc ciing cd tham vpng biln CNY thinh ddng tien dfl trfl. Vi nlu khdng
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thflc hiln dfloc tham vpng niy, Tnmg Qudc se khd gifl dflpe vi the trong he thdng tiln te qudc te du nln kinh te ciia nd cd manh din thi nio di nfla. Hiln nay, cd hon 50 ngin hing tnmg flpng sfl dvmg CNY trong dfl trfl vi ddng CNY dang dflng thfl 7 trong sd cac ddng tien dflpe dimg dfl trfl nhilu nhit thi gidi (Reuters, 2016). Quylt dinh dfla CNY vio rd SDR eua IMF hdi cudi thing 11/2015 da trao eho CNY vai trd li mdt trong nhiing ddng tiln dfl trfl qudc tl. Hon thi niia, Trung Qudc dang li nflde xuat khau nhilu nhat thi gidi nen khi CNY dflpe dfla vio SDR, nd se vflpt qua ddng Bing Anh vi Yen Nhit vl mat ty trpng trong co clu gid tiln te SDR.
Bdy, cic khoin np bang CNY cua cic cdng ty Trung Qudc ngiy cing tang. Theo mpt fldc tinh eiia Bank of America diu nam 2016, gii tri dia CNY giam 1% thi tdng cic khoin np thanh toin bing USD ciia cic cdng ty Trung Qudc ting lin 8 ty. Do lo sP rui ro t^ gii, eic edng ty Trung Qudc dang thflc diy nhanh vile chi tri cic khoin np thanh toin bing ddng USD vi huy ddng vdn mdi thdng qua phit hinh trii philu bing CNY.
Nhfl viy, trong khoing mdt thip niln qua, Trung Qudc & khdng ngimg no Iflc thuc day tien trinh qudc t l hda ddng CNY vdi mye tilu trd thinh mpt ddng tien cd vi tri eanh tranh vdi Dd la My trong tflOng lai. Tuy nhiln, nflde niy se cdn phii phan dau rat nhilu de cd the qudc te hda thinh cdng CNY do Tnmg Qudc van thflc hien edn Idem soit vdn vi CNY khdng phii ddng tien dflpe tfl do chuyen ddi. VI viy, Trung Qudc se phii ciing ed vai trd da nhilm cua ddng tien niy trong thanh toin, dau tfl vi dfl trfl nflde ngoii.
4. Tinh hinh an ninh tai chfnh Viet Nam trong qua trinh quoc te hoa CNY
4.1. Quan h$ thflpng mai gifla Vi^t Nam vi Trui^ Qudc
Hiln nay, Trung Qudc li ddi tic thflOng mai Idn nhit cua Viet Nam vdi tdng kim ngach xuit, nhip khIu Uln tuc ting cao trong nhilu nim qua. Tong kim ngach miu dich hai chilu gifla Tilt Nam vi Trung Qudc ting nhanh, binh quin khoing 21,5%/nim trong giai do^n Hinh 1: Kim ngach xuat, nhap khau Viet Nam va Trung Quoc trong giai doan 2001-2015
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2007-2013. Nim 2007, con sd niy dat 16,36 ty USD vi tinh din nim 2015, tdng kim ngach niy li 66,67 ty USD (Tdng cue Thdng kl, 2016) (Hinh 1).
Trong giai doan tfl 2010 din nay, gii trj nhip khau trung binh ting 22,5%/nam. Dang chu y nim 2015, gii tri xuat khIu tang 18,57 ty USD, tflong dflong 38,6% li mfle ting cao nhit trong giai doan 2001-2015. Khoang cich gifla xuat va nhip khau hing hda ngiy cang gia ting. Hay ndi mot cich khac hon, tinh trang nhip silu cua Viet Nam tfl thi trfldng Trung Qudc ngiy cing Idn vl gii tri tuyet ddi. Nam 2005, nhap silu li 2,67 ty USD thi din nim 2015, gii tri thim hut da len din 32,39 ty USD (Tdng cue Thdng kl, 2016). Nhfl viy, xet trong mdi quan he thflong mai song phflong, cd the thiy sfl phy thuQc eua Viet Nam vio hing hda nhip khau Trung Qudc ngiy cing gia ting.
Mat khac, nhip silu tfl Trung Qudc chiem phan Idn trong tdng nhip sieu cua Viet Nam, theo sd lieu cua Tdng cue thdng ke vi tinh toin eua. tic gia, ty le nhip silu tfl Trung Qudc so vdi nhip sieu eua ca nflde dang duy tri d mfle rat eao - 36% (nim 2005), 78% (nim 2009), cdn tfl nam 2010 nhip sieu tfl Trung Qudc bat diu
\'flOt mfle nhip sieu ehung eua Tilt Nam. Nam 2012, danh dau mfle gia ting dot bien trong gia tri nhip sieu khi ty 11 niy gip 32.80 lin so vdi tdng gia tri nhip silu. Nam 2013, ty le nay giam
Ngudn: Tdng cue Thdng ke (2016)
xudng edn 10,05 lin vi nam 2015, -9,15 lin so vdi tdng gii tri nhap sieu. Tuy ty le nay di giam nhanh trong nim 2015 nhflng vin cho thay sfl xim nhip manh me cua hing hda Trung Qudc vio thi trfldng Viet Nam. Nam 2015, Vilt Nam xuat sang Trung Qudc 17,141^ USD gii tri hing hda vi nhip tfl nflde niy 49,53 ty USD gia tri hing hda. Cd nghia li chi rilng nim 2015, tham hut thflong mai Viet Nam vdi Trung Qudc li 32.39 ty USD. Tinh trung binh thi nhip khIu cua Viet Nam tfl Trung Qudc trong chin nam gin diy ludn Idn gip. hon hai lin xuat khIu va thim hut thflong mai tfl qudc gia niy ludn Idn hon 75% tdng thim hut thflong mai. Cd the thay, thim hvit thflong m?i gifla Viet Nam va Trung Qudc di ting 2,54 lin chi trong 9 nam, tfl mfle 9,15 ty USD nam 2007 lin din hon 32,39 ty do la nim 2015. Chi rilng trong quy 1/2016, Viet Nam di nhap khau tfl Trung Qudc 10,66 ty USD nhflng ehi xuat khiu dfloc 4,2 ty USD vi hien tai, Vilt Nam li ddi tie thflOng mai Idn thfl siu cua Trung Qudc. Nlu thdng kl dfloc ea hing hda nhip liu qua biln gidi vi bang eon dfldng tieu ngaeli thi eon sd niy ed thi cdn cao hon. Dilu dang quan ngai li tdc do gia tang nhip khiu tfl Trung Qudc ngiy eang nhanh, trong khi xuat khIu sang nflde niy ting khdng ding kl. Sfl phvi thudc qui nhilu vio nhap khIu tfl Tnmg Qudc tao ra mdt mdi quan hi kinh t l thilu binh ding.
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Xet d mdt binh dien ehung, Viet Nam khdng thoit khdi bai hoc ehung ma cac qudc gia trong khu vfle gap phai li sfl chen ep cua hing hda Tnmg Qudc ddi vdi ning Iflc eanh tranh ed han eiia hing hda trong nflde. Hang hda Trung Qudc vdi gii re nhd vio chinh saeh phi gii CNY di ho tro xuat khau eua Trung Qudc tic ddng din nhieu nginh sin xuat trong nflde. Nhip sieu khdng chi inh hfldng den boat ddng sin xuat trong nflde, lim ting sfl phu thudc vio hang hda nhap khau ma cdn lam mit can bang trong can can thanh toan.
4.2. Tmh hinh dau tfl trflc tiep tfl Trung Qudc vao Viet Nam
Cd the nhan thay, FDI eua Trung Qudc vio Vilt Nam thdi gian qua thflc sfl chfla tflong xflng vdi tilm nang vi dieu kiln hien cd - quy md nhd vi ehu yeu trong eic linh vfle sin xuat thdng thfldng. Cho din thing 3/2016, theo bing xIp hang cua Tdng cue thdng ke, FDI eua Trung Qudc chi dflng thfl 9 trong 112 nflde va vung linh thd dau tfl vio Viet Nam vdi 1.346 dfl in cdn hilu Iflc vi tdng vdn d i i ^ ky 10.4 ty USD. Trung Qudc hiln di ed cic dfl an dau tfl tai 54/63 tinh, thinh phd ciia Viet Nam nhflng ehu ylu tip trung vao cac dia phflong cd dilu ki|n CO sd ha tang tflOng ddi thuin loi hoac gan bien gidi Viet Nam - Trung Qudc hoac cd nhilu ngfldi Hoa sinh sdng nhfl Lio Cai, TP.HCM, Quing Ninh, Hii Phdng (Cue Dau tfl nflde ngoii thupe Bp Kl hoach va Dau tfl, 2016).
4.3. Tic d$ng cua qua tiinh qudc t l hda CNY din an ninh tii chinh Vif t Nam
Di thflc hiln thinh cdng miic tilu qudc tl hda CNY, Trung Qudc phii tang gia CNY vi cac nflde mudn qudc te hda ddng tiln ban tl cua minh diu khdng thi tilp tuc tie ddng nhim neo gii tri ddng ban te, mi phai thflc hien vi|c tfl do hda ty gii hdi doai. Nhd vi the kinh te - chinh tri vi mfle dp khu vflc hda eao, mfle dp qudc t l hda CNY ngiy cing ting, die bi?t sau khi Trung Qudc thflc hien tfl do hda hoin toin cic giao dich tren cin cin vdn thi biln dpng ciia ty gia USD/CNY se inh hfldng
den hilu qui kinh te eua cac qudc gia theo cac hfldng khac nhau, dae biet nhflng nflde cd giao dich thflOng mai trflc tilp vdi Trung qudc hay canh tranh vdi Trung Qudc tai eae thi trfldng thfl ba. Khi thim hut thflong mai cua nhilu qudc gia phat trien tren t h i gidi vdi Trung Qudc gia tang, sfl tdn thflong eua cie nln kinh te hang dau nay dang giy ap Iflc Idn ddi vdi chinh phu Trung Qudc, ddi CNY len gii. VI ly thuyet, khi CNY lin gii, san pham cua Tnmg Qudc se bi giim sflc eanh tranh vi gia bin cua chflng se dat hon tflOng ddi so vdi hang hda nflde ngoii. Tuy nhiln, vile ting gia CNY khdng mang lai tic ddng tich cflc mdt chieu eho qudc gia khic nhfl nhieu nflde dang ky vpng. Bdi vi nln kinh t l dang cd ty trpng nhip khau eao tfl Trung Qudc se giup cho phan ddng gdp "thflc" cua Trung Qudc trong gii tri sin pham giam di ding kl.
Nlu CNY lin gii, Trung Qudc se dflOe hfldng lpi tfl gia nhip khau dau vio re hon. Vi vay, tie ddng tilu c\ic cua ty gii chi giy ip Ifle len phin "thflc" ed the dang ngiy cing nhd di.
Vdi vile VND dfloc neo khi chat vio USD, nlu CNY lin gii so vdi USD thi tflong quan gii tri gifla CNY vi VND (ddng tien Viet Nam) cung se thay ddi. Ty 11 nhap sieu cua Viet Nam tfl Trung Qudc khdng ngflng ting qua cac nim se lim eho chi phi nhip khIu mi Viet Nam ginh chiu gia ting khi CNY lin gii so vdi VND.
Trin thflc tl, khi CNY len gia, vdi lai suit trong nflde ting eao, loi nhuin eiia vile dau tfl giim di, nhilu doanh nghi|p Trung Qudc ciing cd the se Ifla chpn dau tfl ra nflde ngoii.
Kit hpp vdi triln vpi^ Viet Nam gia nhip TPP, ddng vdn dau tfl tfl Trung Qudc vio Vilt Nam se cd thi tang cao trong thdi gian tdi. Khdi tii sin cua Trung Qudc se tang lin tflong flng vi vile dau tfl ra nflde ngoii se dien ra manh me hon. Tie ddng eiia viec CNY ting gii din nln kinh t l thi gidi se rit to Idn. Ddi vdi nhflng nln kinh te ling gieng eua Trung Qudc va cd thflc Iflc yeu hon, sfl cinh bio niy cing tang gip bdi, die biet li \^lt Nam.
Cic chi sd kinh t l vi mo cua Vilt Nam nam 2015 nhfl l^m phit chfla tdi 1%, thip
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Hinh 3: So sanh bien dpng ty gia CNY va VND vdi USD -USD/CNY -USO/VMD
104.0 103.0 1020 101.0 ^ 100.0
990 98 0 97 0
103 21 102.53
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. ^ ^ ^ N
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ban nhieu so vdi miic tieu 5%; tdc dd GDP ting 6,68% so vdi nim trflde, cao ban muc tilu 6,2%; dfl trfl ngoai hdi d mfle cao dat 38 ty USD (Tdng cue Thdng kl, 2016) di ho trp Ngin hing Nhi nflde Vi|t Nam dim bio cam kit eua minh li khdng dilu chinh ty gii USD/VND qui 2% trong nim 2015. Tuy nhiln, cu sde phi gia 4,6% CNY so vdi USD cua Trung Qudc bat diu tfl 11/8/2015 di budc Viet Nam phii dilu chinh ty gia tdng cpng +5% trong nim 2015 (Ngan hing Nhi nflde, 2015, 2016).
Gin diy nhit, mpt trong nhflng nguyen nhin dflpe xie dinh ed tie ddng din lan ting ty gii USD/VND lin mfle 22,430 ngiy 31/5/2016 cua Viet Nam ehinh li sfl dilu chinh gii tri CNY cua Trung Qudc (Hmh 4).
Nhfl viy, theo dudi eo chl ty gia theo hfldng kem linh boat trong sudt mdt thdi gian khi dii, Viet Nam phai ddi mat vdi ip Iflc dilu chinh ty gia Idn bat thfldng khi ddng tiln eua qudc gia cd liln quan chit che din hoat ddng thflong mai vdi Viet Nam dilu chinh gii tri.
Kit qui li chinh nhflng lin dilu ehinh Idn bit thfldng nhfl viy lim gia ting nii ro ty gia vi cd tie ddng tilu cflc den tinh hinh kinh t l cua Viet Nam.
Co o3 tf o3 do oo 05 CO oo cB oB
Ngudn: Bloomberg (2015)
5. Mpt so g^i y n h i m han che tac dong cua quoc t e hoa CNY den an ninh tai chinh Viet Nam
Thti nhdt, ddng vdn dau tfl vi cho vay tfl Trung Qudc vio Viet Nam se cd xu hfldng ngiy cing tang khi Trung Qudc tiln hinh tfl do hda tii khoan vdn eua minh. Chinh vi thi Vi|t Nam cin phai cin nhie vi th^n trpng nham trinh tinh trang gia ting ginh np qudc gia khi CNY tang gii.
Thti hai, ca eau hing hda xuit khIu eua Vi|t Nam sang Trung Qudc ehu ylu li nguyin vit lieu, tii nguyin khoang sin. Trong khi ehung ta lai nhip khau tfl Tnmg Qudc eic mat hing may mdc, hda chit va thim chi li hing hda tilu dung. Khi CNY tang gia, hing hda xuit khIu cua Trung Qudc se giam di nln vi|c nhip khau nguyin lilu eung se giam di, eie doanh nghiep xuit khIu cua Viet Nam cin Ifldng trflde tic dpng bit lpi niy. Mat khic, tinh trang nhip silu tfl Trung Qudc cua Vi|t Nam Ididng thi thay ddi ngay lap tflc, nhflng ehung ta cin cd nhflng giii phip d l han chl din vi trinh phv thudc qui nhilu vio hing hda nhip khIu tfl Trung Qudc khi CNY tang gii thi kio theo chi phi nhip khau tang cao.
Thti ba, nhi nflde phii r i soit cic dfl in
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Hinh 4: Bien dpng cua ty gia USD/VND da tang manh ngay 31/05/2016
dau tfl FDI vio Vilt Nam, die biet cie dfl in tfl Trung Qudc. Thflc t l eho thay, cic doanh nghilp Trung Qudc tai Viet Nam cd ddng gdp khdng Idn vio ngin sich nhi nflde, tiln dp triln khai dfl an chim vi edng nghe thap.
Thti tu, ca chi dilu hinh ty gii eua Ngin hing Nha nflde ein Unh boat hon, xem xet mfle dp tie ddng eua eic ddng tiln cd ty trpng giao dich thflong mai vdi Viet Nam Idn de dfla nhiing ddng tiln niy vio dfl trfl ngoai hdi eua qudc gia theo ty le hpp ly.
6. Ket luan
Ngay nay, thflOng mai la boat ddng kinh te khdng the thilu cua mpi qudc gia. Die bi|t Ii trong giai doan hpi nhip hien nay, nen kinh te cua cic qudc gia lai phu thudc lan nhau. Vile dilu hinh cie chinh sich tiln te ndi ehung va chinh sich ty gii hdi doai ndi rieng cua mdt qudc gia khdng chi inh hfldng den qudc gia dd ma edn inh hfldng den cie qudc gia khic vi thim ehi inh hfldng din ci nen kinh te toan cau. Miic tieu qudc tl hda CNY mang din nhflng thinh cdng Idn ddi vdi nen kinh tl Trung Qudc nhflng lai ed nhflng tic ddng.
Ngudn: Reuters (2016)
khdng mong mudn din an ninh tii chinh cua cic nflde khae, trong dd cd Viit Nam. Vi thi, di dam bao an ninh tii chinh qudc gia, Vi|t Nam can chu trpng dilu hinh chinh sach tiln te phu hpp de trinh tinh trang bi ddng khi Tnmg Qudc tiln hinh qudc te hda thinh cdng CNY vi dilu chinh gia tri cua ddng tiln niy
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ccttqt?_afrLoop
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The internationalisation of the renminbi and its impact on the financial security of Vietnam
Le Phan Thi Dieu Thao'^' Le Thi Thuy Hang">
Received: 8 Octorber 2016 I Revised: 10 November 2016 | Accepted: 20 November 2016
ABSTRACT: The Renminbi of China (CNY) is generally used in international payment, investment and reserves. Studies show the outcome of the interna- tionalisation of CNY. The paper also analyses Its impact on financial security of Vietnam. Finally, the paper suggests some policies to mitigate the adverse impact on Vietnam.
KEYWORDS: Internationalization, renminbi, financial security.
Le Phan Thi Dieu Thao Email: thaolptd@)buh.edu.vn.
Le Thi Thuy Hang
Email: [email protected].
HI Banking University HCMC
No. 36 Ton That Dam, Nguyen Thai Binh Ward, District 1, Ho Chi Minh City O) University of Finance - Marketing
No. 2/4 Tran Xuan Soan, Tan Thuan Tay Ward, District 7; Ho Chi Minh City
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