Dinh Phi H6 & Tir Due Hoang. Tap chi Phat trien Kinh te, 27(2), 02-16
/• r
Tac dong cua von con ngwoi den tang trirffng kinh te Dong b5ng song Ciru Long
DINH PHI HO
Trucmg Dai hoc Kinh tl TP.HCM - dinhphiho(ggmail.com Tir DLTC HO A N G
Cong ty CO phan TGC - hoangtu(ggmail.com Ngdy nhdn:
15/09/2015 Ngdy nhdn lgi:
17/02/2016 Ngdy duyet ddng:
22/02/2016 Ma so:
0915-E24-V05
Til khda:
Tang trucmg kinh te, v6n con nguai, giao due, chi tieu giao due, chi tieu y tl.
Keywords:
Economic growth, human capital, year of schooling, education expenditure, health expenditure.
Tom tat
Nghien ciiu nay nham danh gia tac dong cua von con nguo'i den tang tru'O'ng kinh te Dong bang song Ciru Long (DBSCL). Tac gia dua vao du lieu bang (104 quan sat) cua 13 tinh/thanh trong vimg giai doan 2006-2013, ket hgp ham san xuat Cobb-Douglas md rong. Hai mo hinh hoi quy ca ban doi vdi dtr lieu bang dugc sir dung; (i) Tac dpng nglu nhien (REM); va (ii) Tac dpng c6 djnh (FEM). Cac biln dai dien cho von con nguai bao gom; So nam di hpc binh quan dau nguai cua luc lugng lao dpng, chi tieu ngan sach nha nuac cho giao due va y tk.
Ben canh cac bien chfnh nay, mo hinh con de cap den cac bien khac nhu dau tu kinh te tu nhan, ti le hp ngheo, dp mcr thuang mai va ti trpng khu vuc phi nong nghiep trong GDP. Ket qua nghien ciiu cho thay cac chi tieu dai dien cho von con ngugi deu co tac dpng tich cue den tang truang kinh tl, bao g6m: (i) S6 nam di hpc binh quan cua lire lugng lao dpng; (ii) Ti le chi tieu ngan sach nha nuac cho giao due; va (iii) Ti le chi tieu ngan sach nha nuac cho y te. Dua tren ket qua phan tich, tac gia dua ra mpt so ggi y chinh sach lien quan den giao due va y te nham thiic dSy qua trinh tang truang kinh tl cua viing.
Abstract
The aim of this study is to assess the effects of human capital on the economic growth in Mekong-Delta area via using the panel data (104 observations) of 13 provinces, from 2006 through 2013, and an extended Cobb-Douglas production function. Two regression models for the panel dataset are also employed, including; (i) Random Effects Model (REM), and (ii) Fixed Effects Model (FEM). While the proxies for education are average year of schooling and public education expenditure, the proxy for health is public health expenditure. Besides the main ones in the paper, some other controlled variables such as private investment, poverty rate, trade openness, and non-agricultural rate are included in the model. The estimation results indicate that human capital has a positive and significant effect on grovrth, leading to possible implications to enhance the regional economic grovrth.
Dinh Phi H6 & Tit Diic Hoang . Tap chi Phat trien Kinh te, 27(2), 02-16
1. Gidi thieu
Trong li thuyet truyen thdng, cac nhan td anh hudng den tang trudng bao gdm; Lao dpng, vdn, va cdng nghe. Ngay nay, kinh te cic nudc huong den phit trien ben viing nen yeu td vdn con ngudi cang die biet dugc quan tim. Con ngudi ddng gdp vao qua trinh tang trudng va phit trign cua mdt qudc gia khdng ehi la sd lugng lao dpng gian dan ma cdn d dang ngudn vdn - vdn con ngudi (Human Capital). Theo Becker (1975), vdn con ngudi dugc hinh thinh tii giio due va cham sdc siic khde cho con ngudi. Vdn con ngudi li ygu td quan trpng inh hudng dgn ting trudng va phit trien ben 'viing. Mankiw va cdng sy (1992) khang dinh vdn con ngudi ddng vai trd trung tim ddi vdi qua trinh ting trudng va phat trien, la ngudn gdc ciia tang trudng kinh te trong dii ban.
Kg tir nam 1986, tang trudng kinb te ciia VN duy tri tdc dp cao vi dn dinh, ygu td quygt dinh tdi ting trudng li vdn, die biet li vdn diu tu nudc ngoai. Trong chign lugc phit trign kinh tg dgn nim 2020 va xa ban, VN se thyc hien md hinh hudng tdi tang trudng xanh - phit trien ben viing; theo dd, vdn con ngudi trd thanh yeu td ein dugc quan tim diy du. Ddng bang sdng Cim Long ddng vai trd quan trpng trong phit trien kinh tg ca nudc vg sin xuit vi xuit khau ndng-tbuy sin; tuy nhien, mat bang vg giio due va y tg ciia viing cdn la vin de thach thiic ldn trong qua trinh phit trign. Do dd, nghien Cliu vg vdn con ngudi tai DBSCL la thich thiic va cin dugc quan tim ddi vdi cac nha nghign ciiu vi chinh sich.
Nghien ciiu vg tic ddng ciia vdn con ngudi den tang trudng kinh tg nhin dugc sy quan tim nghign cim cua rit nhieu hgc gia trgn thg gidi; tuy nhign, tai VN, cic nghien Cliu vg vin de nay vin cdn rit ban chg. Vin cdn thieu nhung bang chiing vg; (i) Vdn con ngudi ngn do ludng nhu thg nao trong md hinh ting trudng? (ii) Vdn con ngudi cd that sy tic ddng dgn tang trudng? Muc tigu ciia nghien ciiu nay tip trung vao giai quygt cac van de trgn trong md hinh tang trudng kinh te gan vdi trudng hgp nghign ciiu dien hinh tai DBSCL.
2. Cff Sff If thuyet va thirc tien
2.1. Vdn con nguai v&i cdch tiip can gido dtic
Smith (1976) li ngudi diu tign dua ra khii niem vg vdn con ngudi. Theo Smith, vdn con ngudi la nhiing ning lye hiiu ich ma cic thinh vien eua mdt xa hdi cd dugc. Nhiing nang lyc niy cd dugc tir viec ci nhan dau tu vao hpc tap v i tiep thu dugc nhiing kign
Dinh Phi H6 & Tir Diic Hoing. Tap chf Phat triin Kinh te, 27(2), 02-16
thiic tir qui trinh giio due dio tao. Nang lyc biiu ich mang lai nhiing ca hdi tdt han cho chi'nh ci nhin dd, dong thdi cdn gdp phan ning cao chat lugng sdng cua cpng ddng.
Theo Schultz (1961), Mincer (1974), Laroche (1999) va OECD (2001), von con ngudi li nhQng kign thii'c, kT nang, nang lyc va cac dac tinh thuoc ve ca nhan cd the tao dieu kien cho viec tao ra cic phiic lgi thudc ve ca nhan, xa hgi va kinh te. Khai niem nay nhan manh vdn con ngudi nam trong mpt qui trinh thay ddi lien tuc tir lijc ca nhan sinh ra dgn khi mit di. Cic ygu td anh hudng den phit trign vdn con ngudi bao gdm; (i) Truyen dat (Communication) nhu kha nang dpc, vigt, nghe va ndi (bang tieng ban dia va ngoai ngii); (ii) Khi ning toan hpc (Numeracy), hay la nhung kT nang ddi hdi tinh logic ciia toin hpc; (iii) Kha ning ty thiu hieu (Intra-Personal Skills), dieu chinh chinh ban thin minh nhu sy kien tri, sy tign pbong, kha nang ty hpc, ty dieu tilt ban thin, khi nang dinb gia sy viec dya trgn nhii'ng chuin myc dao diic nhat dinh va muc tieu sdng cua chinh ci nhan dd; (iv) Khi ning thiu hieu ngudi khic (Inter-Personal Skills) bao gom khi ning lam viec theo nhdm v i khi nang lanh dao; vi (v) Cac phim chit khac bao gom kign tbii'c tigm an, khi nang giii quygt van dg, kha nang lam viec chin tay, thao tic tot ddi vdi cac thigt bi cdng nghe thdng tin. Vdn con ngudi cd dugc ttr giao due phd thong, nghe, giio dye khdng chinh quy vi ty hpc cua bin thin qua thye tien lao ddng cua moi ca nhan.
2.2. Vdn con ngu&i v&i cdch tiip can siec khde
Theo Td chij'c Siic khde Thi gidi (WHO, 2015), siic khde khdng chi la kit qua cua sy phit trign, ma cdn li dilu kien tign quylt cho phit triln vdn con ngudi va chinh vln con ngudi lai tic ddng din phit triln. Bleakley (2010) cho ring siie khde la mpt loai von con ngudi cung nhu lugng diu vio dl sin xuit. Siic khde tdi te lam suy ylu kha nang lam viec hieu qua va nang suit thip. Vdi nghTa rdng ban, siic khde tic ddng din nang suit lao ddng thdng qua hai kgnh rigng biet.
_ Kgnh tryc tigp; Benh tat lim giim khi nang lim viec. Ton that nay cd thi do ludng bing thdi gian mat di dl dilu tri - an duang thay vi lam viec.
Kgnh giin tiep; Ngudi ldn dugc diu tu siic khde nhilu han d thdi tha iu thi vdn con ngudi se it bi giin doan trong boat dpng do benh d tudi trudng thanh. Nhu vay, chit lugng diu vao lao ddng se cao ban, ning suit lao ddng se tdt han.
Becker (1975), nhi kinb tl bpc diu tign tim ra mdi quan he giiia diu tu vdn con ngudi va hieu qui; Khong cd diu tu nao dem lai Igi nhuan ldn han nhu diu tu vao con ngudi.
Dinh Phi H6 & Tir Dilc Hoang . Tap chi Phat triln Kinh t6, 27(2), 02-16
die biet li diu tu cho giio due va dao tao. Theo Mincer (1974), vdn eon ngudi (sd nim di hpe va kinh nghiem lam viec) tic ddng den thu nhap. Lucas (1988) dua ra pham tru ting trudng npi sinh dua vao tich luy von con ngudi, qua md hinh ham sin xuit Lucas:
Y = K°(u.H)'-"
Trong dd;
Y; Sin lugng qudc gia (GDP); K; Vdn sin xuat qudc gia; u; Thdi gian lao dpng ciia moi ci nhin; H; Von con ngudi; (u.H); Von con ngudi cua toan bp lao ddng qudc gia;
a; He sd co gian cua von theo GDP; (1-a); He sd co gian ciia vdn con ngudi theo GDP.
Nghign Cliu cua Romer (1990), Barro va Lee (1977), Aghion va Howitt (1998), Nelson va Phelps (1966) chi ra qudc gia nio ed ngudn vdn con ngudi tdt han se tiep thu vi thich ling vdi tien bd cdng nghe nhanh hon. Vi viy, vdn con ngudi cao ban se hip thu cdng nghe tdt hem v i thuc diy tang trudng nhanh hem.
Theo Lutz v i Goujon (2001), d cip dp khu 'vuc v i toan nen kinh tg, lyc lugng lao ddng cd trinh dp giio due tdt dugc xem li nhin td diu tign tic ddng den trinh dp phat trign cdng nghe-ki thuit va phit trign kinh tg. Ciing kgt qua tren, Liu vi Armer (1993) cho thiy neu chgnh leeh thu nhip phin anh chenh lech nang suat lao ddng, trinh dp hpc vin cua mdi ci nhin thi xa hdi cang nhieu ngudi cd trinh dp giio due cao se mang lai nang suit cho ngn kinh tg cing Idn, va thiic day tang trudng kinb te nhieu hem.
Tai VN, Tran Thp Dat (2011) chpn thudc do vdn con ngudi bao gdm: Sd nam di hpc binh quin, ti le lao ddng bigt dpc bigt vigt, ti le lao dpng tdt nghiep tigu hpc, ti le lao ddng tdt nghiep trung hpc ca sd, ti le lao dpng tdt nghiep trung hpc phd thdng, ti le lao ddng tdt nghiep CD, DH va sau dai hpc. Trin Thp Dat dya trgn him Cobb-Douglas md rdng theo md hinh hdi quy dii lieu bang vdi hieu img cd dinh, trgn ca sd dii lieu cua 61 tinh/thanh phd d VN giai doan 2000-2007, khang dinh kgt qua vdn eon ngudi inh hudng tdi ting trudng.
Ha Thi Thieu Dao va cdng sy (2014) dimg thudc do vdn con ngudi bao gdm: Ti le ngudi bigt dpc biet vigt, sd nim di hpc binh quin, va chi phi cho giio due. Dya trgn ham Cobb-Douglas md rdng theo md hinh hdi quy dii lieu bing vdi hieu iing cd djnh, trgn ca sd dii lieu cua 8 tinh/thanh phd vimg Duyen hai Nam Trung Bd giai doan 2000-2011, cho ket qua vdn con ngudi inh hudng tdi tang trudng; tuy nhien, miic do anh hudng cdn thip so vdi vdn vit chit va lao ddng. Nghign ciiu niy hiu nhu chi dg cap vdn con ngudi vdi each tiep can giio due, m i bd qua y te.
Dinh Phi H6 & Tir Dire Hoang. Tap chi Phat tri6n Kinh t6, 27(2), 02-16
3. Khung phan tich cua nghien ciiu
Dya vao li thuylt va cic nghien ciin trudc, tic gia dg xuat md hinh nghien ciiu vdi dang ham sin xuat Cobb-Douglas nhu sau;
Yit =AK,t" Li,"* H,,^ e^it ^ "it; vdi Zit = (INFi,, Fht, GnRit, Pnt, PI,t) (1) Trong dd:
i: Bigu thi sd tinh quan sat trong viing; t; Bieu thi sd nam quan sit; Y: Tdc dp tang trudng kinh tg, sir dung gii tri GDP; A; Yeu td cdng nghe; H: Vdn con ngudi; K: Gii tri vdn vat chit; L: Lyc lugng lao dgng; INF Ca sd ha ting; FI; Do md thucmg mai; GnR;
Ti trpng khu vu'c phi ndng nghiep; Pr: Ti le hd ngheo; v i PI: Diu tu kinh te tu nhin.
Ham hdi quy tuygn tinh dang Logarit:
InYu = ao + a LnKu +^ InLn + dlnHi + /I INFINFU
+ X FiFIii -I-/1 GnkGnR ,1 + X PrPr,-, + XpiPh, -i- m (2) Trong dd:
ao =lnA; a, fi, S, XINF, XFI, X cnR, Xpr, Xpi: Cac he sd hdi quy; uu: Phin du.
Gidi thich cdc biin:
Tdng truang kinh te fZ;; Y la gii tri GDP hang nim (Gia so sinh 1994, nghin ti dong).
Thudc do nay dugc su dung trong nhilu nghign cii'u, diln hinh nhu nghien cihi ciia Ng va Leung (2004), Tran Thp Dat (2010).
Vdn con ngu&i (H): H la biln thi bien vdn con ngudi. Thudc do niy dugc su dung trong cac nghign ciiu cua Liu vi cpng sy (1993), Trin Thg Dat (2011), Ng va Leung (2004), Mulligan vi Sala-i-Martin (2000), Asghar vi cpng su (2012), Barro (1991).
Trong nghien ciiu niy, tic gia dya vio eic thudc do ciia World Bank (WB, 2015) sii dyng dg bd sung va lya chpn vdn con ngudi bao gom; (i) Ti Ie ehi tigu ngin sich nha nudc cho giao dye trong tdng san phim quoc ndi; (ii) Ti le ehi tigu ngin sach nha nudc cho y tg trong tdng sin pham quoc ndi; va (iii) Sd nim di hpc binh quin dau ngudi ciia lyc lupng lao ddng.
Luc lugng lao ddng (L): Lyc lugng lao ddng dugc hilu la so lao dpng thyc tl dang lam viec vi tao ra sin phim. Thudc do niy dugc sir dung trong cac nghien ciiu ciia Tran Thp Dat (2010), Vd Tin Phudc (2013), Ha Thi Thilu Dao va Nguyin Dang Khoa (2014).
Vdn vgt chdt (K): K la lugng vdn vit ehit thyc tl eua nln kinh tl, dugc binh thanh tir lugng vdn diu tu ciia thdi ki hien tai kit hgp lugng vdn tieh liiy eua thdi ki trudc da loai
Dinh Phi H6 & Tii Diic Hoang. Tap chi Phat trijn Kinh 16, 27(2), 02-16
trir }'lu td hao mdn (thudng dugc ggi la trii lupng vdn). Krueger va Lindahl (2001) cbo ring muc GDP goc cd the thay thi cho miic vdn vit chat ban diu trong md hinh sin xuit Cobb-Douglas (1928), tir dd ta cd tbi sir dung cdng thiic dl ti'nh toan gii tri vdn cho cac thdi ki tiep theo.
Miic vdn vit chit cic nam dugc tinh dya vio cdng thiic: Ki = (1- X,)Ki-i+It. Trong do:
It la tdng miic vdn diu tu toan xa hdi nam thii t va X la ti le khau hao vdn cho cac tinh/thanh va la hing sd theo thai gian. Nghign ciiu nay sir dung GDP gdc la nam 2004 vi gia tri ti le khau hao X = 5%.
Cich tinh K, lya chgn GDP lam Ko ban diu, xac dinh gia tri X hoan toan phu hgp va dugc su ling hd cua cic nghign cim trudc, dign hinh nhu nghign ciiu ciia Tran Thp Dat C2010), va Ha Thi Thilu Dao (2014).
Ca s& hg tdng (INF): Theo Asiedu (2002), ca sd ha ting cd tic ddng tich cyc len tang trudng kinh te. Do die thii vg thyc tien va sd lieu thu thip d VN, nghien eiiu nay sir dung chi sd "sd tieu thu dien nang (nghin Kwh)", lim bign din xuit cho ca sd ha ting, qua do nghign ciiu tac dpng cua ca sd ha ting len tang trudng kinh te d cac tinh/thanh. Cich su dung va tinh toin chi tieu nay hoan toan pbii hgp \'a dugc sy ung hd cua nhigu nghign Cliu trudc, dign hinh nhu Yilmaz & Hasan (2004), hay nghien cuu vg tic ddng tieu thy dien dgn ting trudng kinh tg d Bangladesh ciia Mahedi (2012).
Do m& thuang mgi (FI): Nghign ciiu cua Romer (1986) va Lucas (1988) cho thiy dp md thucmg mai hay sy gia ting boat ddng xuit nhip khau cd tic ddng ti'ch cue lgn ting trudng kinh tg. Tu\' nhign, theo Trin Thp Dat (2008). sir dyng thudc do nay cho eic tinh/thanh d VN li khdng hgp li bdi vi khdng thg xac dinh dugc lugng hing hoi dua vao hay dua ra ciia mdi tinh. Vi vi\', tic gii sir dyng ti trgng FDI trong tdng vdn diu tu toan xa hdi de danh gia do md thuang mai cua mdi tinh. Diy ciing la thudc do do md thuang mai ma cic nghign ciiu trudc da su dung, dien hinb nhu nghien ciiu cua Nguyen Thi Tue Anb (2006), Ng & Leung (2004), va Ha Tbi Thilu Dao (2014).
Ti trgng phi ndng nghiip (GnR): Theo Dinb Phi Hd (2014), ti trgng khu 'vyc phi ndng nghiep ti le thuin \di tang trudng kinb te va ngugc lai. Dieu nay him y cin phii tiln hanh cdng nghiep hoi, hien dai hoi, nang cao ti trpng khu \'yc phi ndng nghiep trong GDP \'a phit trign kinh te ndng nghiep theo chigu siu. Ng va Leung (2004) ung hd quan digm niy \ i trong thyc tg ciing da cd nhieu nghign ciiu thyc nghiem vg cie chi tieu nay dVN.
Dinh Phi H6 & Tir Ddc Hoang. Tiip chi Phat trien Kinh te, 27(2), 02-16
Ddu tu kinh ti tu nhdn (PI): Carmen vi Moshin (1989) khang dinh vai trd tich cyc cua diu tu tu nhin trong nudc, va xem diy li ylu td quan trpng ddi vdi nen kinh te.
Ngoai ra, nhieu nghien eun thyc nghiem d VN cOng kit luan diu tu tu nhan trong nudc cd tic dpng tich cyc doi vdi tang trudng kinh tl, diln hinh nhu nghien ciru cua Sii Dinh Thanh va Nguyen Minh Tiln (2014), va Vd Thanh Dd (2014).
Ti li hd ngheo (Pr): Trong thyc tl, nhilu nghien ciiu thyc nghiem gin diy cho thiy cd tic ddng tigu cyc ciia ti le hp ngheo doi vdi tang trudng kinh te. Siswantoro va Tien (2012) tim thay kit luin tuong ty va xac dinh ti le hp ngheo la mot trong cic nhin td anh hudng tigu cyc din nln kinb tl. Doi vdi VN, DBSCL la mpt trong eac khu vyc cd ti le hd ngheo rit cao. Nghign ciin gin diy ciia Trin Trpng Luat (2014) ve tang tru'dng kinh tl Cling cho thay ti le bd ngheo cd tac ddng trai chieu dgn tang trudng. Theo dd, cic khu vyc cd ti le bp ngheo cang thip thi ngn kinh te cd diu hieu ting trudng tdt hon.
Bang 1
Khung li thuygt cic nhin td tic ddng dgn ting trudng kinb te
Bien so Dien giai Nguon Gia thuyet
Bien phu thugc
Y Tang truang kinh tl (%) Ng va Leung (2004); Tran Thp Dat (2010)
Bien doc lap
Von con nguai (3 thuac do):
S: So nam di hpc binh quan cua luc lugng lao dpng (nam)
H EE: Ti le chi tieu ngan sach nha nuac cho giao due (%)
EH; Ti le chi tieu ngan sach nha nuac cho yte(%)
K V6n vat chat (nghin ti ddng)
Barro (1991); Lau va congsu (1993); Ng va Leung (2004); Mulligan
va Sala-i-Martin (2000); (+) Tran Tho Dat (2010);
Asghar va cpng su (2012); WB (2015).
Ng va Leung (2004); Ha
Thi Thiiu Dao va Nguyin (+) Dang Khoa (2014).
Dinh Phi H6 & Tir Dtic Hoang . Tap chi Phat triln Kinh te, 27(2), 02-16
Bien so Dien giai Nguon Gia thuyet
INF
PI
Luc lugng lao dpng (trieu nguoi)
Ca so ha tang (so lugng tieu thu dien nang, nghin Kwh)
Dau tu kinh te tu nhan (tram ti d6ng)
Tran Thp Dat (2010); Biii Thi Minh Tiep (2013); Vo TanPhuac(2013);HaThi Thieu Dao va Nguyen Dang Khoa (2014).
Asiedu (2002); Yihnaz va Hasan (2004); Mahedi (2012).
Sii Dinh Thanh va Nguyen Minh Tien (2014); Vo Thanh Do (2014).
(+)
(+)
(-*-)
FI Dp ma nen kinh te (FDI/T5ng v6n diu tu toan xa hpi) (%)
Ng va Leung (2004);
Nguyin Thi Tue Anh (2006).
(+)
Ti ttpng khu vuc phi nong nghiep trong D Ng va Leung (2004);
GDP (GDP„/GDP) (%) Dinh Phi H6 (2014). (+)
Pr Ti Ie hp ngheo (so hp ngheo/tong s6 hp) (%)
Siswantoro va Tien (2012); Tran Trpng Luat (2014).
(-)
4. Thiet ke va ket qua nghien cuu
Nghien ciiu sii dung sd lieu thii c i p cua c i c tinh/thinh thudc DBSCL trong giai doan 2006-2013 (8 nam), dugc tn'ch dan tir 3 nguon chinh l i Tdng cue Thong ke, Bd Lao ddng, Thucmg binh & Xa hdi, v i Tdng cdng ty dien lyc miin Nam, bao gom:
(i) C o sd dii lieu nign giam thong kg cac tinh/thanh pho D B S C L (Tdng cue Thdng kg, 2 0 1 4 ) ; C a sd dii lieu Dieu tra lao ddng va viec lam hang nam (TCTK, 2014); (ii) So lieu thyc trang lao ddng-viee lim d VN nam 2006 (Bd LDTB&XH, 2006), nign giim thdng kg lao ddng, ngudi cd cdng va xa hdi (Bd LDTB & XH, 2006; 2007; 2008; 2009), Quyet dinh phe duyet k i t q u i dilu tra hd ngheo, hd can ngheo (Bd LDTB&XH, 2010;
j^Q B i n h Phi H 6 & Tir D d c Hoang. T a p chi Phat tri6n Kinh 16, 2 7 ( 2 ) , 0 2 - 1 6
2011; 2012; 2013); v i (iii) Co sd dii lieu tieu thu dien nang - dien thuong pham ciia cac dien lyc (Tong cdng ty dien lyc miin Nam, 2014). Tong so quan sat trong nghien cmi nay la 104.
Theo Gujarati (2004), sii' dyng du' lieu bing trong viec phin tich dinh lugng se giup cai thien dii lieu vl mat sd lugng va chit lugng, va diy cung la lgi thg so vdi viec su dung dii lieu cheo hay du' lieu theo thdi gian. Cd ba md hinh kinh tg lugng ea ban thudng dugc sil' dung dl phan tich dii' lieu bang bao gdm: Md hinh he so khdng thay doi (Pooled OLS), md hinh tic ddng cd djnb (FEM), vi md hinh tic ddng ngiu nhign (REM).
Pooled OLS trong tru'dng hgp dii lieu bing thudng bd qua sy khae biet cua cac quan sat theo khdng gian vi thai gian. Theo dd, cac gii thuygt trong md hinh OLS thudng bi vi pham nhu bien tugng da cdng tuyln, ty tuong quan, phuong sai phin du thay doi.
Dilu nay him y kit qui cic gia tri kilm dinh t, va F trong md hinh se khdng cdn chinh xac. Hay ndi cich khac, md binb OLS khi su dyng dii' lieu bing se bdp meo mdi quan he thyc tl giiia cac biln ddc lap va biln phu thudc (Gujarati, 2004). Vi viy, nghign cini nay chi tap trung dinh gii cac gia tri kigm dinb d 2 md hinh hdi quy tic ddng cd dinh (FEM) va md hinh hdi quy tic ddng ngiu nhign (REM) va bd quan md hinh pooled OLS.
Tru'dc hgt, dg lya chpn md hinb phii hgp giii'a 2 md hinh REM va FEM, tic gii sir dung kigm dinh Hausman (1978). Ngoai ra, nghign ciru sii' dung phan mgm STATA 13 nham kigm dinh thgm gii thuygt quan trpng ddi vdi du' lieu bing nhu hien tugng phuang sai phan du tbay ddi (Heteroskedasticity) va tign banh xir li cic vi pham (ngu cd).
Vdn con ngudi dugc do bang ba chi sd khic nhau nen nghign cim nay tign hinh hoi quy va kigm dinh ba md hinh tuong ung vdi ba nhin td dau vio khic nhau (InS, InEE, InEH).
Kit qua kigm dinh Hausman (1978) trong Bing 2 cho thiy gia trj chi binh phuang tuong iing 3 thudc do lan lupt la 6,33; 69,23; 39,91 v i cd mii'c y nghTa vdi dp tin cay la 99%. Kgt qui nay cho phep kit luan li md hinh FEM phii bgp nhat trong trudng hop nay. Nhu viy, md hinh tdt nhit la md hinh hieu iing cd dinh (FEM).
Dinh Phi H5 & Tir Dire Hoang . Tap chi Phat trien Kinh 16, 27(2), 02-16
Bang 2
Kgt qua kiem djnb Hausman
Kiem dinh Hausman Chi2
Prob > chi2
Thuac do von con nguai (H) InS InEE InEH 6,33 69,23 39,91 0,000 0,000 0,000 Tuy nhign, tru'dc khi hdi quy md hinh tic ddng cd dinh FEM cudi cimg, tic gia thyc hien them mpt kiem dinh rit quan trpng ddi vdi dii lieu bing, dd li kigm dinh phuang sai pbin du tbay ddi. Ket qui sir dyng kilm dinh Modified Wald dugc dl xuit bdi Greene (2000), gii tri chi-binh phuong tucmg irng vdi 3 chi tieu InS, InEE vi InEH li 399,54, 406,25, 234,20 vi deu cd miic y nghTa 1%. Kgt qua nay cho phep bic bd gii thuylt Ho, vi kgt luan md hinb tdn tai hien tupng phuong sai phin du thay ddi. D I khic phyc tinb trang niy, nghien cim thyc hien hdi quy md binh bieu irng cd dinb (FEM) vdi tiiy chpn
"Clustered Robus". Bing 3 cho bigt kgt qua hdi quy, theo dd cic biln trong md hinh dlu cd y nghTa thdng kg, ngoai trii' 2 biln li Pr va FI khdng cd y nghTa thdng kg.
Bang 3
Md hinb hdi quy co dinh (FEM) cd tiiy chpn "Clustered Robus"
Cac thuac do von con nguai
Biln dpc lap Constant InH InK InL GnR INF PI Pr FI
InS He so hoi quy
-3,8262*"
0,0847*
0,3512***
0,646***
0,0103***
0,0002**
0,0008*
-0,0003 -0,0008
InEE He so hoi quy
-3,176***
0,1384***
0,3512***
0,5513***
0,0082***
0,0001*
0,0007*
0,0005 -0,0013
InEH He so hoi quy
-3,898***
0,052**
0,3446***
0,6902***
0,009**
0,0002**
0,0007*
0,0001 -0,0008
Dinh Phi Ho & Tir Diic Hoang. Tap chi Phat tridn Kinh t6, 27(2), 02-16
Bien dpc lap Prob > F R^ hieu chinh
InS He so hoi quy
0,000 0,9780
Cac thudc do von con InEE He so hoi quy
0,000 0,9813
ngudi
InEH He so h6i quy
0,000 0,9798 Bien phu thupc: LriY
Ghi chii: *** y nghTa tai miic 1 %, ** y nghia tai miic 5%, * y nghTa tai miic 10%.
5. Thao luan ket qua nghien ciiu
Kgt qua d Bang 3 cho thiy he sd R^ cua 3 md hinh rit cao. Dilu nay ham y sy thay doi cua tie dp tang trudng kinh tl dugc giii thich bdi cac biln dgc lip trong md hinh a mii'c tuong ling li 97,8%, 98,13%, vi 97,98%. Ngoai ra, gii trj thdng kg (Prob > F) ciia 3 md hinh dgu cd mii'c y nghTa 1 %, giii thich 3 md hinh cd cac biln ddc lap tuang quan tuygn tinh vdi biln phy thude vl tdng thi. Nhin vio kit qui hdi quy, cae biln dpc lap trong 3 md hinh dlu cd y nghTa thing kg, ngoai trir 2 biln FI va Pr.
_ Vdn con ngu&i (H): Chi sd vdn con ngudi cua 3 md hinh InS, InEE, LEH cd y nghTa thing kg d mii'c tuong ung 10%, 5%, vi 1%. Vdi kit qui tren, cd thi kit luan nlu cac yeu td khac khdng ddi, sy thay doi 1% cua biln vdn con ngudi (S, EE, EH) se dan din GDP se thay ddi cimg chilu tuang iing la 0,0847%, 0,1382%, va 0,0520%. 6 diy cin pbin biet rdvdn con ngudi trong 3 trudng hgp, nlu chi sd S do ludng bing s6 nam di hpc thi chi sd EE vi EH do ludng theo ti lg phin trim (%). Vi du, nam 2006, sd nam di hpc ciia Long An la 6,54 nam va GDP dat 8,15 nghin ti ddng, nlu tang 1% sd nam di hpc (tii'c la tang them 0,0654 nim) thi GDP cua tinh ting thgm 0,084%. Hay ndi each khac, ngu sd nam di hoc tang lgn 1 nam (tuang iing la (I/6)*100% = 15 29%) thi GDP cua tinb Long An tang lgn li 15,29*0,084% = 1,28%, tu'c la tang thgm 104,32 ti ddng.
Can luu y ddi vdi chi sd EE hay EH, vi diy la gia trj tinh theo phin tram (%). Vi du: Chi so EE cua Long An nim 2009 ting tii' 8,9% (0,089) len 9,9% (0,099). Nlu tinh theo chi so tuong ddi, chi sd EE vilt theo % tang thgm se la ((0,099-0,089)/0,089)*100% = 11,24%. Tuy nhign, sd tuyet ddi ting thgm se la (0,099-0,089) = 0,01 (1%).
^ Nhu vay, kgt qua cho thiy vdn con ngudi vdi cac thudc do; Sd nam di hgc binh quan cua lyc lugng lao dpng, ti le chi tieu ngan sach nha nude cho giio due (ciing kit qui cua nghign cii'u Tran Thp Dat vl vdn con ngudi d VN) va ti le chi tigu ngin sich nha nudc
Dinh Phi H6 & Tir Dtic Hoang . Tap chi Phat tri6n Kinh 16, 27(2), 02-16 13
cho y te deu tac ddng cd y nghTa den tang trudng kinh te cua "sning DBSCL, dac biet la ti le chi tieu ngan sach nha nudc cho giio due ed tic dpng manh nhat.
Ngoai ra, cac yeu td vdn vit chat, lyc lugng lao dpng, ti trgng phi ndng nghiep, ca sd ha ting va diu tu kinh tg tu nhan dgu tic dpng cd y nghia den tang trudng kinh te.
6. Ket luan va gffi y chinh sach 6.1. Kit ludn chinh
Nghien cuu cho thay md hinh hieu iing ed dinh (FEM) la md hinh phu hgp nhat de dinh gii tie dpng ciia vdn con ngudi ddi vdi tang trudng kinh te DBSCL. Ca 3 chi sd dai dien cho vdn con ngudi deu cd tie dpng ti'ch cyc den tang trudng, bao gdm sd nam di hpc binh quan cua lyc lugng lao dpng, ti le chi tigu ngin sach nhi nudc eho giio due va ti le chi tigu ngan sach nha nudc cho \' tg. Ngoii ra, cic chi tieu khic nhu: Vdn, lao dpng, ca sd ha tang, ti trpng phi ndng nghiep, dau tu tu nhan deu cd y nghTa thdng ke va inh hudng dgn tang trudng kinb te.
6.2. Ggi y chinh sdch
Ket qua nghign eiiu din dgn mdt sd ggi y chinh sach quan trgng ddi vdi vdn con ngudi nhu sau:
Thienhdt, xiy dyng chign lugc phit trien giio dye dao tao hudng tdi nang cao sd nam di hgc ciia ngudi lao dgng. Cu the: (i) Dau tu ca sd vat chit, md rdng xiy dung trudng ldp, ning cip trang thiet bi, phit trign dpi ngii giao vien va quan li giio due ddng thdi tao mdi trudng thuin lgi cho qui trinh hgc tap cua hoc sinh ngay tir cip tieu hgc va dgi ngii lao dgng cap nhat trinh do trung hpc phd thdng; va (ii) Thyc hien cic chucmg trinh hd trg hp ngheo, 'viing siu \'ung xa trong viec tiep can giao due, nang cao ti le phd cap giao due d cac cap. Tuyen truygn, dpng vign, khuyen khfch, md rdng cac quy md dao tao, md hinh dio tao phti hgp vdi tinh hinh thuc tien cua dja phuang va cic doanh nghiep.
Ben canh dd, van de chat lugng giio due cQng can quan tim chat che.
Thie hai, chi tigu cdng cho y tg cin tip trung vao giii quyet giam qua tii, nang cao chat lugng, dieh vu khim, chiia benh. LTu tign dau tu tao budc ehuyen biln toan dien vl td chiie nhin lyc tai chi'nh, ca sd vat chat, trang thiet bi va ca chl boat ddng ciia mang ludi y tg ca sd. Ben canh dd, ting cudng cdng tic nghien cuu, iing dung khoa hgc cdng nghe kl thuit tien tien trong cdng tic phdng va khim benh, phat hien va dilu tri.
14 Dinh Phi Ha & Tir Due Hoang. Tap chi Phat tri6n Kinh te, 27(2), 02-16
Thieba, tilp tyc duy tri chi tigu cdng cho g i i o dyc/GDP va chi tieu cdng cho y tl/GDP nhu thdi gian qua (5-6%). Viee chi tieu cdng eho giio dye va y te edn gidi han bdi nguin thu ngin sach ciia Chi'nh pbii, nen c i n xa bdi h o i nhanh c i c ngudn d i u t u cua nudc ngoai v i c i c thinh p h i n kinh te ngoai qudc doanh.
Thie tu, n i n g cao hieu qua chi tigu cdng cho giao due va y te la v i n de thach thiic Ion hien nay ddi hdi Chinh phii phai quan t i m dgn dg ed chinh s i c h thfch h g p nham sir dung ngudn lyc khan higm cd hieu q u i nhit.
Thie ndm, can xem diu tu cho con ngudi trgn c i c khfa canh giao due va y tg la chia khoa cho phit trign kinh te ben vii'ng d DBSCL, thg hien u'u tign trong cac chi'nh sach thu biit d i u tu nudc ngoii, thanh phan tu n h i n , uu tign - uu dai cho cac nha dau tu vao ITnh vyc giio due va y tg>
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