TRlTCXNG HQfP NGHIEN CUtJ d HUYEN

PHAN TICK VA BAN DO HOA CAC CHi SO DANH GIA Mtrc DO DE BI TON THlTONG VOfI BIEN D 6 I KHI HAU: TRlTCXNG HQfP NGHIEN CUtJ

d HUYEN MINH HOA, TINH QUANG BINH

Nguyen Dire Kien

Khoa Kinh te & phdt triin. Dgi hoc kinh te Hue Email:ndkien(^hce.edu.vn

Ngay nhan: 21/12/2018 Ng^y nhan ban sira: 14/01/2019 Ngay duy?t dang: 25/02/2019

Tdm tat:

Bien dot khi hgu co xu huang ngdy cdng nghiem trong trong nhirng ndm gdn day & huyen Minh Hoa. Nghien cuu ndy xdy dung hi thong chi so ddnh gid muc do di bi ton thuang v&i bien doi khi hgu dua vdo khung ly thuyit ciia IPCC nhdm chi ra cdc khu vuc co thi chiu tdc dong mgnh di xdc dinh muc do uu tien khi can thiep. Kit qud chi ra rdng muc do phai nhiim CO xu hu&ng tdng len; Da so cdc xd the hiin xu hu&ng gidm vi muc do nhgy cdm; Khd ndng thich img cua cdc xd co xu huang duac cdi thiin nhimg khong nhiiu. Tinh de bi ton thuang CO xu hu&ng gidm theo thai gian nhimg vdn con & mirc cao. Diiu ndy kit hap v&i ty le hd ngheo cao vd diiu kiin hg tdng kho khdn ldm cho nguy ca bi tdc dong cdng tr& nin l&n han.

Dgc biit. cdc xd Tdn Hoa, Tliuang Hoa. Hoa San Id nhirng khu vuc cdn uu tiin ho tr^ nguai ddn dia phuang tdng cu&ng khd nang chong chiu vol bien doi khi hgu.

Tur khda: Bien ddi khi hau, de bj tdn thuang, phuang phap chi sd, IPCC, huyen Minh Hda M a J E L : 0 1 , Q 5 4

Analysing and mapping climate change vulnerability index: A case study in Minh Hoa district, Quang Binh province

Abstract

Climate change tends to increase tendency and severity recently in Mmh Hoa district. This paper constructs a system of indicators evaluating the level of vulnerability to climate change based on the IPCC approach to identify 'hotspot' areas for policy interventions.

The findings show an increasing level of exposure, decreasing the tendency of sensitivity.

and slight improvements in adaptive capacity to climate change in many areas. The level of vulnerability to climatic variability and change remains at a high level, even some improvements have been observed. That high level associated with high poverty rate and low-level of infrastructure may lead to severe impacts of climatic change. Especially, Tan Hoa, Thuong Hoa. and Hoa Son communes are the policy-prioritized areas to increase community capacity to cope with ongoing climatic risks.

Keywords: Climate change, vulnerability, indicator approach. IPCC. Minh Hoa district JEL Code: 01. Q54

So 261 thdng 3/2019

1. Ddt van de

Bien ddi khi hdu, the hien qua sy gia tang vl cudng dp va tan suat cac hien tugng thdi tidt eye doan va su thay ddi Irong dai ban ciia cdc yeu td mdi tnrdng, cd xu hudng ngdy cang nghiem tigng trong nhiing nam gan ddy (Kien & cpng sy, 2019). Biln ddi khi hdu da tdc dpng den rat nhieu cdng ddng khac nhau khien hg phdi ducmg ddu vdi nhiing hiem hga dang gia tdng va trd nen dl bj tdn thuang hon (McCarthy &

cgng sy, 2001). Mgt trong nhiing phuang phdp dugc sir dung rdng rai de giam thieu tdc ddng lieu cyc eiia su thay ddi eua thdi tiet vd khi hdu den ddi sdng con ngudi la xay dyng he thdng cdc chi sd ddnh gia miic dp de bj tdn thuang nhdm tim ra cdc khu vuc cd the chju tac dgng manh bdi cdc hien tupng nay, lam ca sd xdc dinb miic dp uu tien khi can thiep.

Huyen Minh Hda, tinh Quang Binh la mgt huyen mien niii cd dieu kien ty nhien khac nhiet, co sd vdt chdt ha tang kinh le - xd hdi ciing nhu ddi sdng cua nhdn ddn cdn rdt nhieu khd khdn. Nhiing nam qua, cudng dp va ldn sudt cua cdc hien tupng thdi liet cue doan nhu bdo, lyt gia tdng dd cd tdc dpng tieu cue den ddi sdng ngudi ddn. Cy the, hai dot mua lii tir ngdy 12/9/2016 den ngay 17/10/2016, gay nhidu thidt hgi nang nd, Toan huyen cd 02 ngudi chdt, 21 ngudi bi thuang, va hd cd nha tdc mai va sat Id la ban 3.649 hg. Vendng nghiep, lu lyt nam 2016 cudn trdi, vui Idp, lam hu hdng khodng 127,46 ha liia, ban 311 ba cay trdng hdng ndm, ban 10,85 ha cay dn qua, 83,15 ha rau mdu cdc loai, ban 59,5 ha cay keo tram, va thiet hai sd lugng ldn gia sue vd gia cam cua ngudi ddn (Uy ban Nban ddn huyen Minb Hda, 2016).

Trong dieu kidn ciia mdt huyen ngheo vdi ngudn lyc hgn chd vd ddi sdng ngudi ddn, nhdt la ddng bdo ddn tdc thieu sd, cdn rdt nhieu khd khdn, khd ndng tdc dgng lieu cyc cua bidn ddi khi hdu den ddi sdng ngudi dan Id rat ldn. Didu nay dan den sy can thiet cua cdc nghien ciiu danh gia miic dp de bi tdn thuang nham xac dinh thii ty uu tien Irong pban bd ngudn lyc de ddi phd vdi bidn ddi khi hdu ngay eang gia tang d dja phuang. Nghien ciiu ndy hudng ddn xdy dyng mpt he thong chi sd ddnh gia mirc dp de bj tdn thuong vdi biln ddi khi hdu, dp dyng cho dja ban nghien cim, va tir do xdc dinh dugc cac khu vuc cd khd ndng bj tdc ddng ldn nhdt do sy thay ddi cua thdi tiet va khi hau. He thdng ehi sd dua trdn khung ly thuyet do McCarthy & cgng sy (2001) dd xuat bao gdm:

Do phoi nhilm (Exposure), dp nhay (Sensibvity).

khd nang thich iing (Adaptive Capacity), vd mirc

do de bi tdn thuang (Vulnerability). Cac chi sd nay duge thu thdp vd tinh toan cho tit ca 16 xa cua huypn Minh Hda de chi ra cac khu vuc cd nguy co bj tac dgng manh nhat Idm ca sd xac djnh uu tien can thidp vd mat ehinh sdch cho chinh quydn va cdng ddng dja phuang.

2. Tong quan ve van dl nghien ciru Phuang phap ddnh gid mirc do de bi ton thuang cua McCarthy & cdng sy (2001) da dugc dp dyng rpng rdi (Lynch, 2008). Phuang phap nay dya tren CO sd xdc dinh miic dd bi tdn thuang dya vdo 3 nhdm nhan Id sau: Dp phai nhidm (E), dg nhay (S) vd kha nang thich irng (A) (Hinh I).

Phuang phdp nay da dupc dp dyng trong nhieu nghien ciiu cua cdc tdc gid hen the gidi. Cu thd nhu, Dong & cdng sy (2017) phan tich miic dp dd bi tdn thucmg vdi bien ddi kbi bau cho trudng hgp eanh tac lua mi d Trung Qude va ehi ra dugc sy nhgy cam ciia nang suat thu hogch vdi thay ddi ciia cac yeu td nhu lupng mua, Kel qud cho thdy thay ddi ciia cdc chi sd ve khi hdu da cd Idc dpng nhdt djnh den su suy gidm san lugng. Tuy nhien, nghidn ciiu ndy chua chi ra sy phan bd theo khdng gian mdi quan he giira ndng sudt vd cdc bien thdi tiet. Ben canh do, Kumar & cpng sy (2016) xem xet miic dp de bj tdn thuong d gdc dp khdng gian cbo trudng hpp Ihdnh phd Bangalore, An Dp. Nghien cim da cbi ra cdc khu vuc dd bi tdc ddng lieu cyc tir cdc thay ddi cua khi ban do nhi?t dp tang dan trong thdi gian ddi hay tan suat cac hi?n tudng thdi tidt cyc doan bao gdm lii vd hgn hdn tang mgnh. Ngoai ra, ngbien ciru ciia Salik & cpng sy (2015) da xdc djnh dugc mirc dp ton thuang ciia cac cpng ddng ven bien d Pakistan vdi bien ddi khi hdu va de xudt dugc cdc giai phap thich iing. Tuy nhien, su phdn bd ciia cdc chi sd nay theo khdng gian chua dupe tac gid ldm ro. Nhu vdy, dd cd rdt nhieu cdc ngbien ciiu ddnh gia mirc dp de bj tdn thuong ciia edng ddng, cd nhan, hay cac hogt ddng kinh le vdi thay ddi cd trong ngdn ban vd ddi hgn ciia khi hdu.

CJ Viet Nam, cac nghidn ciiu cd lien quan den vide giam thieu tinh dl bj tdn thuang dupc tbyc hien d nhieu dja phuang. Mgt sd nghien cim ndi bat ddnh gid muc do dd bi tdn thuong vdi bidn ddi kbi hdu trong nude nhu: Nguydn Qude Nghi (2016) xem xet sy ddng gdp ciia cac nhan td do McCarthy &

cdng su (2001) dl xudt den cac yeu td tdn thuang tac ddng den sinb ke cdng ddng dan cu ven bien Ca Mau. Ket qud cbo thdy vimg na> dang chju tac dpng ndng ne bdi bien ddi kbi hau the kidn qua cdc chi sd danh gia mire dp phai nhiem, nhgy cam, vd de bj

Sd 261 thdng 3/2019 kiDiitpJ1iiiiirii>n

tdn thuang la khd cao. Nghidn citu ciing chi dimg lai d tinh toan miic dp dd bi tdn thuang vd chua ehi ra dugc eac khu vuc cd nguy ca bj tdc dpng mgnh.

Nghien ciiu cua Nguyen Van Cdng (2012) danh gia tinh dd bi tdn thuang do bidn ddi khi hdu tdi sinh ke ngudi dan vimg ddm vudn qude gia Cat Bd vd chi ra rdng cac ngudn lyc ty nhien, xa hdi, con ngudi, vd cd tdi chinh cua cgng ddng nay rdt de bj dnh hudng tieu cyc tir thay ddi cua mdi trudng. Tuong ty nghien cim trudc, kdt qua phdn tich chua lam rd khu vyc cdn uu tien can thiep. 0 khu vuc mien tmng, Trdn Hiiu Tuan (2012) tim hieu kha ndng tich iing vdi bien ddi khi hau ciia ngudi dan ven bien Thira Thien Hud vd ehi ra cac bien phdp phii hpp cho khu vyc ndy. Tuy nhien, miic dp vd khu vuc nen uu tidn dau tu hay hd trg thich iing vdi bidn ddi khi hau lai chua dupc ehi ra cu the. Nhu vdy, mdt sd nghien cim danh gia miic dg de bj tdn thucmg vdi biln ddi khi hdu da dugc thye hien d trong nudc. Tuy nhien, sd lugng cac nghien cuu d khu vuc mien trung cdn ban chi vd chua cd nghien ciiu nao ban dd hda cdc chi sd dupc tinh toan de ldm ndi bat cac khu vyc nhay cam can uu tien can thiep ve chinh sdch hay ddu tu. Ngbien ciiu nay hudng tdi gidi quyet mgt sd didm cdn han che do cua cac nghien ciiu trudc tiong danh gid mirc dp dd bj tdn thuang cua cdng ddng vdi bien ddi khi hdu.

3. Sor liTffc vl dja ban nghi§n ciru

Minh Hda la mdt huyen midn nui reo cao ndm ve phia Tay Bac cua tinh Quang Binh. Todn huyen cd 16 xa, thj trdn ndm gpn trong gidi han luu vuc thugng ngudn sdng Gianh va Rao Nan. Theo sd lieu tdng hgp tir Nien gidm Thdng ke huyen Minh Hda tir nam 2010 den 2017, tdng ddn sd ciia cd huyen la 50.708 ngudi, vdi mat dp trung binh la rdt thap, 30

ngudi/km2. Phdt trien san xuat ndng nghiep d huyen Minh Hda chu yeu Id rimg va mot sd cay hdng ndm nhu Ilia, ngd, sdn lac. Dien tich cac logi cay lau ndm khac chi chiem mgt phdn tuang ddi nhd.

v l dilu kien thdi tiet vd khi hdu, che do nbidl ddi gid mua tao nen bai miia tucmg phdn rd ret d Minh Hda. Nhiet dp trung binh d day tir 23,5-24°C, lupng mua binh quan bang ndm dgt 2.432 mm nhung luong mua phan bd khdng deu trong nam, Tdng lupng mua hang nam cd su bidn ddng tuang ddi ldn:

On dinh trong giai doan 2010-2012 d miic khodng 1600-1700 mm/nam; Tang dot bien trong nam 2013 ldn ban 2900mm; Gidm dot bien ndm 2015 xudng 50%; va tang mgnh trd lgi hai ndm gan ddy. Sy thay ddi ve nhiet dp vd luong mua, kdt hpp vdi gia tang cudng dp thdi tiet cyc doan da gay ra nhidu thiet hai cho con ngudi vd cac boat dgng kinh te - xa hpi d dja phuang, Tdng thiet hgi do thien tai ldng dpi bien ndm 2017 so vdi nam 2016 la 1.447,203 trieu VND so vdi 48,430 trieu VND (Uy ban Nhdn dan huyen Minh Hda, 2017).

4. Phirtfng phap nghien CIJU

Quy trinh danh gia tinh dl bj tdn thuong do bien ddi khi hdu bdng phuang phdp chi sd theo cac budc nhu sau:

- Didu tia, khdo sdt, tbu thgp sd lieu, tinb loan cdc bidn sd cd lien quan;

- Xac dinh mdi quan he vdi ddi tugng va didu kien cu the tai khu vuc nghien ciiu. Chudn hda sd lieu theo thang 0 - I;

- Tinh todn chi so E, S, A vd V;

- Xdy dyng cac bdn dd E, S, A, V vd tidn hdnh Hinh 1. Khung Iy thuyet danh gia mirc dp dl bj tdn thuong

Sensitivity

Potential Impact Adaptive Capacity

Nguon • McCarthy & cong sir (2001).

Vulnerability

Sd 261 thdng 3/2019

'J'liiitliir

Bang 1: Cac chi so dirtfc su- dung trong nghiSn cihi Yeu to quyet dinh mirc

dp de bi ton tbirgng

Chi thi thanh phSn Md ta chi thi DO PHOI NHIEM

DO NHAY CAM

HiSn tugng khi hau cyc doan Sd tran lu lyt, ban ban, bao/nam Thay ddi Uong cdc bien khi hau Thay ddi nhi$t dp cao nhdt (so vdi miic tmng binh 30 nam) Thay ddi nhiet dp thdp nhat

Thay ddi lupng mua Tdng dan sd trong xa

Mat dp dan sd Dp cao dia hinh Dat dugc tudi tieu chu dpng Ti le dan sd ngoai tudi lao dpng Chi sd da dang hda cay trdng Simpson

Dat ndng nghiep Ti I^ ndng dan quy md nhd Ti le hp ngheo Uong xa Thu nhap tir ndng nghiep Dat bd hoang trong tdng dien tich dat

Ngudi Nghin ngudi/km2 m

Phan tram ddt dugc tudi tieu cbu dgng

% ddn sd ngoai tudi lao dpng Ty trpng dien tich cac cay trdng chinh

% dat ndng nghiep trong tdng ddt Phdn tram ndng dan quy md nhd

% Hp ngheo

% Thu nhap tii ndng nghidp Dien tich khdng canh tdc trong lien tiep it nhat 2 nam qua

KHA NANG THICH CTNG

He thdng ha tang y te He thdng ha tang thdng tin lien lac

Ti le sd hp sir dung dien ludi He thdng ba tang gido dye San xudt phi ndng nghiep Sd lugng dai gia sue Thu nhdp binh quan Cd phuong an phdng chdng thien tai

Nang suat cay trdng chinh Bao hiem khi hau ndng nghiep

Sd ca sd y te, sd bac sT /lOO dan So dien thoai /lOO dan

% sd hp sir dyng dien ludi Sd trudng hpc

Sd CO sd san xuat phi ndng nghiap Sd lupng dai gia sue (con) Thu nhdp binh quan/ngudi/nam Cd phuang an phdng chdng thien tai Ndng sudt cay trdng chinh (tan/ha) Ti le mua bdo hiem khi hdu ndng nghidp (%)

ddnh gia.

4.1. Xdy dfrng chi so de bi ton thuang vd thu thgp thong tin

Tren ea sd khung ly thuyet cua McCarthy & cpng sy (2001), npi dung chi sd danh gid miic dp phai nhidm (E), do nhay (S) va kha nang thich iing (A) cho timg xd dugc chpn tbeo bam sau: V == f(E, S, A).

Viec xac djnh cac chi sd thdnh phan dugc dya hen ca sd tdng quan cac nghien ciiu trudc eiia Ld Nggc Tuan (2017), Kumar & cdng su (2016), Nguydn Vdn Cdng (2012), Nguyen Qude Nghi (2016), vd Trdn Hiiu Tudn (2012). Bdng I tdng hgp cdc chi sd dua vao sir dung tiong nghien ciiu nay,

Trong nghien ciiu nay, muc dp de bj tdn thuang duge dugc danh gid qua nhieu nam va dir li?u eho moi ndm bao gdm tat ca cac ehi sd d mdi khu vyc phai dugc ihu thdp. Chung ldi thu thdp dir lieu cho 2 nam 2010 vd 2017 dd ed die ddnh gia duge su thay ddi eiia cdc chi sd ndy qua thdi gian. Thdng

lin dugc thu thgp rCr Nien gidm Ihdng ke huydn, bao cdo kinh te-xa hgi cdc xa, vd bao eao chuyen de ciia cac phdng ban chuyen mdn. Mdt sd thdng tin khdng dugc thdng ke tryc tidp nhu ty Ip dat bd hoang, ty le tudi lieu chu dpng... dupc chung tdi thu thdp thdng qua thao luan nhdm bdng bdng hdi cdu triic vdi cac ben lien quan d xa,

4.2. Sdp xep du lieu

Ddi vdi cdc chi sd thanh phan, dir lieu dugc thu thap se dugc sdp xep theo mpt ma tran hinh chii nhat vdi eac hang Id dai dien cho cac xd vd cdc cpt Id dai didn cho cae chi sd. Nhu vdy vdi 16 xa va 25 chi sd thanh phan, chung ta cd ma trdn 16 cgt va 25 bang cho nghidn ciiu nay.

4.3. Tiiu chudn hda nhumg chi so su-diing Rd rdng cac cbi sd se khac nhau d cdc dan vi tinh vd quy md vd mat gid tri. De cd the tinh loan vd so sanh dugc, cac con sd na\ can dugc chuan hda vd

Sd 261 thdng 3/2019 kiiiilfj'tiiii

nen

chiing tdi ap dung phuang phdp duge sir dung trong Chi sd phdt triln eon ngudi HDI (Chucmg tiinh Phat trien ciia Lien Hgp Qude, 2006). Cac sd Hdu khdng cd dan vj cu the dupc quy ddi gia tri cua chiing thudc vao vung gid trj giixa 0 va I.

Trudc khi thye hipn dilu ndy, dilu quan Irgng la phai xac djnh mdi quan he chixc ndng giiia cac cbi sd vd sy dl bi tdn thuang. Hai logi mdi quan he chiic nang cd tinh khd thi: Tinh dd bj tdn thuang tang khi tang (giam) gid tri ciia chi sd. Gia su rang gid trj cua chi sd cdng cao keo theo su tdn thuang cao. Vi du, ddi vdi thdng tin ve sy thay ddi nhiet dp tdi da hoac thay ddi lugng mua hdng ndm hogc thay ddi nhiet dp ban ngdy, ro rang la cae gia trj cua cdc chi sd nay eang cao se cang de bj tdn thuang ddi vdi bien ddi khi hdu. Trong trudng hpp nay, chiing ta ndi rdng cac bien sd cd mdi quan he ty le thuan vdi su tdn thuang vd tieu chuan hda dupc su dung theo cdng thiic sau cho xa / - chi sdy:

X -Min{X }

" Max{XJ-Min{X.}

Tdt ca cac diem sd se thudc gid trj tir 0 ddn 1. Neu mdi quan he la nghjch nhu giixa he thdng ca sd hg ldng phat trien vdi miic do de bj tdn thucmg, cdng thiic sau dugc ap dung:

Min{X_j}-X,^

^"^ Max{XJ-Min{X,j}

Phuang phdp ndy dya vao mdi quan he chiic nang

giua bidn sd va sy tdn thuang la rat quan trpng hong viec xay dung va chudn hda cdc chi so.

4.4. Tinh todn cdc chi so sd-dung

Cac chi sd E, S, A vd V dugc tinh tbeo nguyen tdc:

-Timg cbi sd E, S, A la ket qua trung binh cgng cua cac chi sd thdnh phan tuang iing

-Cbi sd V dupc tinh theo edng thiic ciia McCarthy

& cpngsy (2001):

V = [E+S + (I-A)]/3 4.5. Bdn do hda cdc chi so

Kdt qua tinh todn cac chi sd duge dua vao ArcGIS dd bdn dd hda de thdy dugc do Idn ciia chi sd va sy phdn bd ciia chung tbeo khdng gian. Dir lieu ban dd sd ciia Minb Hda dugc trich tir dii lieu banh chinh qude gia sd hda. Chi sd de bi tdn thuang va cdc chi sd thanh phdn sau khi dugc tinh todn se dugc su dyng lam ddu vdo cho qua trinb bdn dd hda bang phan mem ArcGIS 10.4. Cdc chi sd se dugc md phdng cho timg xa nghien cim, dugc phan lap tbeo cae cdp dp E, S, A vd V khac nhau; tii dd lam ca sd phdi hien cac kbu vuc cd miic do de bi tdn thuang cao nhdi de uu tien chinh sdch trong dieu kien Ihien tai vd bien ddi khi hdu xay ra.

5. Ket qua nghien ciru va thao luan 5.1. Ddnh gid muc dp phoi nhiem (Exposure - E) vdi bien doi khi hdu

Nhin chung, muc dp phai nhiem vdi bien ddi khi hdu cd xu hudng tang len Iren dja ban ngbien ciiu. Ket qud phdn tich chi ra 12/16 xa cd miic phai nhidm tang (Bang 2). Nhu vdy, chi cd 4 xa (Hdng Bdng 2: Danh gia mirc dp phoi nhiem (Exposure - E) vdi bien doi khi hau

Thay ddi (2017-2010) 1

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

TT Quy Dat Hong Hoa Yen Hoa Quy Hoa Xuan Hoa Minh Hoa Tan Hoa Trung Hoa Thuang Hoa Hoa San Hoa Hop Hoa Tien Hoa Thanh Hoa Phuc Dan Hoa Trong Hoa

0,269 0,346 0,316 0,281 0,308 0,453 0,489 0,371 0,486 0,293 0,424 0.332 0,249 0,346 0,931 0,840

0,292 0,219 0,488 0,320 0,418 0,517 0,622 0,186 0,661 0,562 0,336 0,429 0,283 0,166 0,963 0,913

0,023 -0,127 0,173 0,039 0,109 0,064 0,133 -0,186 0,175 0,269 -0,089 0,097 0,034 -0,180 0.032 0,073

SS 261 thdng 3/2019

kinlilcAll Irien

Hinh 2: Phan bo mirc do phoi nhiem (Exposure - E) v6\ bien d6i khi hau

•-H

• c ^ . *

.,_j

Ngudn: Ket qud tdc gia phan tich tir ArcGIS Hda, Trung Hda, Hda Hgp, Hda Phuc) thd hien xu hudng gidm vd tdc ddng ciia cdc bien tbdi tiet va khi bau. Tuy nhidn, xet vd dp ldn ciia xu hudng gidm nay la khdng dang kd, dao dgng tiong khodng (-0,186;

-0,089). So sdnh nam 2017 vdi 2010, mpt sd xd nhu Yen Hda va Hda San cd miic dp tang ve dp phai nhiem rdt dang kd, trong khodng (0,173; 0,269). Cdc xa cdn lai cd tdng nhung khdng nhidu nhu Quy Dat, Hda Thanh, va Dan Hda.

Xel ve gid trj tuyet ddi cua chi sd ndy, Ddn Hda vd Trpng Hda cd dg phai nhidm rat cao vdi bien ddi khi hdu vdi gia hi dgt tren 0,9 nam 2017. Ndm 2010, day Cling la 2 xa cd do phai nhidm cao nhdt vdi bidn ddi khi hdu trong loan huyen. Vdi dac diem la cdc xa vimg heo lanh, dja hinh phuc tgp nen hai xd hen ludn bi anh budng ngng ndn nhdt ciia cdc hien lugng biln ddi khi hau, dac bidt la 10 lut. Thdng ke cho thdy ndm 2017 cac xa nay da bi ngdp img do lut 4-5 ldn.

Nhdm xa cd miic dp anh hudng bdi bidn ddi khi hau tuang ddi thdp bao gdm Quy Dat, Hdng Hda, Trung Hda, va Hda Phuc. Day la nhiing xd cd dieu kien ty nhidn tuang ddi thuan lgi, dupc che chan bdi niii cao, vd bao quanh bdi rimg nguyen sinh vd rimg trdng. Do dd, thay ddi ve nhiet dg tnmg binh nam nhin chung la khdng ldn vd bien ddng ve lupng mua

la klidng ddng ke.

De thay ro sy bien dpng cua chi sd nay tbeo khdng gian, chiing tdi tien hanh bdn dd hda va kdt qud thu dugc trinh bay d Hinh 2. Xet vd sy phdn bd theo khdng gian, cac xa dgc bien gidi Viet-Lao cd miic dp phai nhiem vdi bien ddi khi hau la cao nhdt, bao gdm Tdn Hda, Trung Hda, Dan Hda, Hda Son, vd Thugng Hda. Gia trj tuyet ddi ciia chi sd nay ciia 5 xa la cao ban kha nhieu so vdi cac xa cdn lai trong huyen. Vdi dac diem dja hinh dua vdo sudn nui cao, ed lac dpng mgnh ciia gid phan Tdy Nam vao miia he nen nhin chung khi hau viing nay khde nhiet ban dang kl so vdi vimg khac. Xet ve thay ddi miic dp phoi nhidm theo thdi gian, 3 xa dpc bien gidi nay bao gdm Dan Hda, Hda San, vd Thugng Hda the hidn xu hudng tang len ddng kd vd gid tri ciia chi sd.

5.2. Ddnh gid mirc dp nhgy cdm (Sensitivity - E) v&i bien doi khi hgu

Mirc dp nhgy cam (S) vdi bien ddi khi hdu tap trung lam rd su nhay cam/ de bj tdc ddng ciia 16 xa nghien ciiu ddi vdi bat ky thay ddi nao vd thdi tidt \ a khi hgu cd the xdy ra. Trong dd, ddc biet nban manh den sdn xudt ndng ngbipp - Id boat dpng bi tdc ddng hyc liep bdi cac bien thdi tiet. Miic sdng, thu nhdp dan cu thap ciing la nhimg nhdn td tiem nang Idm lang anh hudng cua bien ddi kbi hgu den cgng dong, nhat la mpt khi cudng dp \a miic dp ciia cac bipn

Sd 261 thdng 3/2019

kintilpAi Irien

hrgng cyc doan dd tang len.

Xet ve sy thay ddi mirc dp nhay cam (S) d 16 xd nghien ciiu, ket qua ehi ra da sd cdc xa the hien xu hudng gidm ve gid trj cua chi sd ndy. Cd ddn 14/16 xa cd mirc thay ddi dm, bic la chi sd nam 2017 da thap hon 2010 (Bdng 3). Xem xet chi tiet cac nban td, chiing tdi nhdn thay rang ty le ddt dugc tudi tieu chii dgng va chi sd da dang hda tang nhanh; ket bap vdi lao ddng ndng nghiep, ty trgng thu nhdp tir ndng nghiep, vd dien tich hoang hda gidm manh trong giai doan 2010-2017 cd tdc ddng tich cue ldm gidm miic dp nhay cam vdi bien ddi kbi hdu d vimg nghien cim,

Xet vd gia trj tuyet ddi, Ddn Hda va Trpng Hda vdn la 2 xa cd miic dp nhay cdm vdi bien ddi khi hdu cao nhdt, tiep dd Id Minh Hda, Tdn Hda, vd Thupng Hda. So sdnh qua Ihdi gian, cdc xd nay ciing la cdc xa cd miic dp nhay cam cao trong cd bai nam 2010 va 2017. Nhin ehung, gia trj cac chi sd nay d cac xa khdng cd sy bien ddng qud ldn, dao ddng trong khoang (0,298; 0,676), ngoai tni thj hdn Quy Dgt.

Didu nay the hien tinh ddng nhdt tuang ddi vd dieu kipn kinh te - xd hdi d cdc xd mien nui thupc huyen Minb Hda.

De thdy ro sy bidn ddng cua chi sd nay theo khdng gian, chiing tdi lien banh bdn do hda vd kdt qud Ihu duge trinh bay d hinh dudi, Xel sy pban bd Iheo khdng gian, nhin chung cdc xa dpc bien gidi cd ehi sd nhay cdm cao hem nhung khdng dang ke so vdi cdc xd trung tdm (Hinh 3). Tan Hda, Thugng Hda, Ddn Hda, vd Trung Hda cd chi sd kha cao. Xet ve

su thay ddi theo thdi gian, Thugng Hda vd Hda San cd dd nhgy cdm vdi bien ddi khi bdu tang ldn khd nhanh. Mdt trong nhirng nguyen nhan chinh ddn din didu nay dugc xac dinh la do ty le dien lich dat ndng nghidp bj bd hoang ldng cao, ma nguyen nhdn chu ydu Id do ban ban d khu vyc san xual ndng nghiep tudi lieu nhd nudc trdi (Hinh 3).

5.3.Ddnh gid khd ndng thich dug (Adaptive capacity - A) v&i bien doi khi hgu

Kha ndng thich iing vdi bidn ddi kbi hdu chinh la ndng lyc ciia he thdng tu nhidn va xa hdi de chdng lai nhihig dieu kien bat lgi do bien ddi kbi bau gdy ra vd la hgp phdn quan trpng trong danh gia mirc dp tdn thucmg bien ddi khi hau. Xem xet chi sd nay d viing nghien cuu, chiing tdi nhdn Ihdy rang khd nang thich ung cua cdc xd cd xu hudng dupc cai thien theo thai gian (Bdng 4), Cplhe, 10/16 xdcd cdi thien tich cyc ve chi sd ndy vd chi cd 6 xd cdn lai the bien xu hudng giam. Xuan Hda, Minb Hda, vd Dan Hda cd muc ldng ldn nhat ve kha nang thicb iing, dao ddng trpng khoang (0,090; 0,127).

Xet ve gid Iri tuyet ddi, cdc xa Hda Phiic, Dan Hda, vd Trpng Hda cd kbd ndng thich lin^ vdi bien ddi khi hau cao nhal trong loan vimg. Dieu chii y la cac xa Dan Hda va Trpng Hda ludn bj tdc ddng ndng ne nhal bdi thay ddi thdi tiet vd khi bdu nhu han hdn, ngdp lut. Cd the qua qud trinh ddi ddi mat vdi cac thach thirc ndy, cdng ddng ddn cu dja phucmg dd timg budc cdi thien nang lyc dd thich ung tdt ban vdi cdc thay ddi nay de tir dd gia ldng khd nang thich Bang 3: Danh gia muc dp nhay cam (Sensitivity - S) vdi bien ddi khi hau

STT 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Xa TT Quy Dat Hong Hoa Yen Hoa Quy Hoa Xuan Hoa Mmh Hoa Tan Hoa Trung Hoa Thucmg Hoa Hoa San Hoa Hap Hoa Tien Hoa Thanh Hoa Phijc Dan Hoa Trong Hoa

2010 0,379 0,367 0,465 0.357 0,417 0,603 0.584 0,526 0,611 0,414 0,503 0,476 0.347 0,326 0,670 0,741

2017 0,271 0,298 0,414 0,335 0,415 0,598 0,532 0,386 0,540 0,341 0,420 0,406 0,359 0,441 0,617 0,676

Thay doi (2017-2010) -0,107 -0,069 -0,051 -0,022 -0,002 -0,005 -0,052 -0,140 -0,071 -0,073 -0,083 -0.070 0,013 0,115 -0,052 -0.065

si 261 thdng 3/2019 67

kliihlcJU Irien

Hinh 3: Phan bo muc dp nhay cam (Sensitivity - S) vdi bien doi kbi hau

,.1 .-)-.

i

0 2.5 5 10 Kn

Ngudn • A^e/ gua rdc gio /j^an tich lic ArcGIS.

img cua cdng ddng,

Sau chiing tdi tien hdnh ban dd hda, sy phan bd theo khdng gian cua chi sd nay nhin chung Id kha ddng ddu giixa cac khu vyc dia li khac nhau (Hinh 4). Xet vd sy thay ddi chi sd qua thdi gian, cdc xd dpc bien gidi cd su gia ldng nhung khdng dang ke.

Cac xa viing ldi trung ldm gdn thj trdn Quy Dat cd sy ldng ldn manh ve gid trj cua chi sd nay.

Xem xet lac ddng cua cdc nhan td thdnh phan den khd ndng thich img thdy rdng ngodi thj trdn Qui Dgt, cac xa cdn lai ed kha nang thich img hrang ddi ddng deu. Trong dd, ha ldng y te, giao due, tbdng lin lien Igc dugc xay dyng tuong ddi ca bdn gdp phdn tich cue vao viec nang cao nang lyc chdng chju vdi bidn ddi khi hgu ciia dja phuang.

5.4.Ddnh gid mirc dp de bi ton thuang (Vulnerability - V) v&i bien doi khi hgu

Nhin chung, phdn ldn cac xd hong vimg nghien ciiu tinh dd bj tdn thuang vdi bien ddi khi hdu cd xu hudng gidm iheo thdi gian nhung vdn cdn d miic cao. Miic dd bi tdn thuang cao kel hgp vdi ty Id hd ngheo eao va didu kien hg ldng kbd khdn ldm cho nguy ea bj tdc ddng manh bdi bien ddi khi bau cang trd ndn ldn han. Mat khae, thi trdn Quy Dat, Yen Hda, Tdn Hda, Thupng Hda, Hda San, va Hda Tidn

cd miic dp de bi tdn thuang ndm 2017 cao han so vdi nam 2010.

Ddc biet, cdc xa Tan Hda, Thupng Hda, Hda Scm ed su gia tdng dang ke ve chi sd nay. Didu nay the hidn diing thuc td hien nay d khu vyc nay khi ma cudng dp vd mirc dp cua thidn tai cd xu hudng tang nhanh trong thai gian gan day. Cdc xd tren dugc xem la vimg 'rdn lii' ciia huyen Minh Hda vdi khd ndng bj ngdp va chia cdt rdt cao khi cd thidn tai. Trong dd bao gdm cac vimg thdp triing nhu: Yen Thp, Cd Liem (xd Tan Hod), Phii Nhieu (xa Thuang Hoa), viing ddng bdo Rue (xd Thuang Hoa), viing Ldm (xa Trpng Hod). Ngoai ra, cdc viing cd nguy ea cao ve sat Id de dog den tinh mang, tdi san cua ngudi ddn ludn dugc uu tien di ddi trudc miia mua bao nhu:

Tidu khu 4 va tidu khu 5 (thi trdn Quy Dat); cae thdn Dang Hda, Tang Hda (xd Hda San). Cdc dja phuang ndy chinh Id viing uu tidn can dugc huyen se bd tri phuang tien, ca sd vat chdt de pbuc vy van chuyen ngudi, luang tbyc, thudc chiia benh cho ngudi dan kjp thdi ban che thidt hai do thien lai gdy ra.

Xet vl sy phan bd theo khdng gian (Hinb 5). hai xd dpc bien gidi la Hda San va Thugng Hda cd sy gia tang ddng ke vd tinh dd bi tdn thuang vdi bien ddi khi hgu. Cdc xa vimg trung Tan Hda. "i dn Hda,

Sd 261 thdng 3/2019

kjniilcj'hattrirn

Bang 4. Banh gia kha nang thich img (Adaptive capacity - A) vdi bien doi khi hau Xa 2010 2017 Thay ddi (2017-2010) 1

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

TT Quy Dat Hong Hoa Yen Hoa Quy Hoa Xuan Hoa Minh Hoa TanH6a Trung Hoa Thuang Hoa Hoa San Hoa Hop Hoa Tien Hoa Thanh Hoa Phuc Dan Hoa Trong Hoa

0,502 0,655 0,710 0,640 0,499 0,507 0,743 0,600 0,645 0,581 0,624 0,705 0,636 0,798 0,804 0,821

0,572 0,627 0,705 0,686 0,626 0,625 0,613 0,615 0,674 0,652 0,684 0,631 0,692 0,822 0,893 0,866

-0,07 -0,028 -0,005 0,045 0,127 0,118 -0,130 0,015 0,029 0,072 0,060 -0,074 0,055 0,025 0,090 0,044 Hda Tiln cung ghi nhdn sy tdng nhe vd gia hj hiyet dpng bdi bien ddng ve thai liet va khi hdu.

-x. , . . ^ . X.-. ; - u- t," u A^ 6. Ket luan va kidn nghi doi eua chi so nay, Mpt so xa ghi nhan xu huang • ^ •

6.1. Ket ludn

gidm tinh dd bi tdn thuang nhu Ddn Hda va Trung . . , , . , . . * - . - ; , . , - j - - j

^ • Nghien cuu nay da tien hanh xay dyng va ap dung Hda, cho dii trudc ddy la cac xa bien gidi de bj lac mdt he tbdng cdc chi tidu ddnh gid do phai nhiem,

Hinh 4: Phan b6 kha nang thich irng (Adaptive capacity - A) vdi biln doi khi hSu

l/I..

.~\,>

Leflond: Chi ai ei> k h i ndng thich i>na A i. tnuoog H » I I Lsgend. Thay doi chi s i t i h i nSng Ihlch img A a i 0 v a 2 O 1 T 2017 VB 2010

Nguijn: Ket qua tdc gid phdn lich tir ArcGIS

SS 261 thdng 3/2019

kinhliU'liiillrifn

Bang 5: Banh gia mirc do d£ bj tdn thifffng (Vulnerability - V) vdi bi^g doi khi hau Thay doi (2017-2010)

0,015 -0,056 0,042 -0,009 -0,006 -0,020 0,070 -0,114 0,025 0,042 -0,077 0,034 -0,003 -0,030 -0,037 -0,012 1

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

TT Quy Dat Hong Hoa Yen Hoa Quy Hoa Xuan H6a Minh H6a Tan Hoa Trung Hoa TTiuong Hoa Hoa San Hoa Hap Hoa Tien H6a Thanh Hoa Phiic Dan Hoa Trong Hoa

0,448 0,352 0,357 0,333 0,409 0,516 0,443 0,433 0,484 0,375 0,434 0,368 0,320 0,291 0,599 0,587

0,464 0,297 0,399 0,323 0,402 0,497 0,514 0,319 0,509 0,417 0,357 0,401 0,317 0,262 0,562 0,574

dp nhay cam, vd kha nang thich img vdi bien ddi cbi ra 12/16 xa cd miie phai nhiem tang; u) Xet ve khi hau. Tir do lam ca sd xac dinh mirc do dd bi tdn

thuang vdi bien ddi klii bau cho 16 xa-thi trdn cua huyen Minh Hda, tinh Qudng Binh.

Ket qua phdn tich chi ra rang: i) Nhin chung, miic dp phai nhiem vdi bien ddi khi hgu cd xu budng tang len tren dja ban ngbien ciiu. Ket qua phan tich

sy thay ddi muc dp nhay cam, da sd eac xa the hi?n xu hudng gidm ve gid trj cua chi sd ndy; iii) Ve khd nang thich iing, cdc xa cd xu hudng dugc eai thi?n theo thdi gian. Cy thd, 10/16 xd cd cai thien tich cyc ve chi so nay vd chi cd 6 xd cdn lai the hien xu Hinh 5: Phdn bo mirc do de bi tdn thinmg (Vulnerability - V) vdi bien ddi khi hau

a 2i 5 10Km

rZ}"'"'

Ngudn- Ket qud tdc gid phdn tich tie ArcGIS.

Sd 261 thdng 3/2019

kJHitlriliatirjpn

h u o n g g i d m .

Tren e a s d d d n h gia 3 rihdm cbi sd dd, n g h i e n cixu d a ehi r a m i i c d d d e bj tdn t h u a n g v d i bidn d d i khi hdu: P h a n ldn c a c x a trong v u n g n g h i e n e u u tinh d e bi tdn t h u a n g v d i bien d d i k h i hgu ed x u h u d n g gidm theo thdi g i a n n h t m g v a n c d n d miie cao. Mixc d e bj tdn t h u a n g c a o ket h g p v d i ty Id bg n g h e o eao va d i e u kien h a tang k h d k h a n l a m c h o n g u y c a bi tdc d g n g m a n h b d i bidn ddi khi h d u cdng t r d n e n ldn hon. D a c bipt, cdc xa T a n Hda, T h u p n g H d a , H d a S o n cd s u gia lang d a n g kd v e chi sd nay. D a y chinh la nhiing k h u v u c cdn u u tien can thiep v e m a t c h i n h sach dd hd tig n g u d i d a n dia p h u a n g tang c u d n g khd nang c h d n g chiu v d i b i l n ddi khi hau,

N g h i e n c i m ndy d u a tren h e thdng cdc chi sd d u g c xdy d u n g d a ehi ra d u g c cdc k h u v u c ' n d n g ' vd d e bj tdn t h u a n g vdi b i l n ddi khi hau, d d n g Ihdi chi ra xu h u d n g thay ddi cua cac cbi sd nay t h e o thdi gian.

D a y la n g u d n thdng tin t h a m k h a o cd c a sd ed the giiip chinh q u y e n dja p h u a n g chii d d n g b a n trong c d n g tdc p h d n g - c h d n g thien tai vd bien ddi khi hdu

trong thdi gian den.

6.2. Kien nghi

Tren e a sd d a u ra ciia nghidn ciiu nay, chiing ldi k h u y e n n g h i : i) Dja p h u a n g can xdc dinh rd thii t u m i lien trong phdn bd n g u d n lyc giam nhe tac d g n g thien tai vd bien ddi Idii hau, nhdt la cho cdc x a cd mixc d o dd bj tdn t h u a n g rat cao (Tan Hda, T h u g n g Hda, H d a Scm); ii) Cd giai phap ndng cao k h d n a n g c h d n g chiu bien ddi khi hdu cua cdng d d n g dia p h u a n g , nhat la phat tridn c o sd ha tdng p h u c v u k i n h te - xa hgi - d d i sdng d a n c u n h u h e thdng c a sd y Id, gido due, t b d n g tin lien Igc, va ap d u n g rpng rdi cac giai phdp n d n g nghiep t h d n g minh phii h g p vdi dja p h u a n g da d u g c diic kel bdi d y dn do I F A D tai trg; iii) T h u c d a y da d a n g h d a thu nhap cho n g u d i ddn thdng qua phdt trien cdc boat d p n g kinh te phi n d n g n g h i e p n h u du ljch c g n g d d n g , tir dd lam gidm dp nhgy c a m v d i bidn ddi khi bau thdng qua gidm sy p h y thudc vao sdn xuat n d n g ngbipp d dia p h u a n g .

T ^ i li^u t h a m k h a o :

Chuang trinh Phat trien cua Lien Hpp Quoc (2006), Bdo cdo chi so phdt trien con ngu&i HDI 2006, New York, My Dong, Z., Pan, Z., He, Q., Wang, J., Huang, L., Pan, Y., Han, G., Xue, X., Chen, Y., (2017), 'Vulnerability assessment of

spring wheat production to climate change in the Inner Mongolia region of China', Ecological Indicators 85, 67-78.

McCarthy, J.J„ Canziani, O.F., Leary, N.A., Dokken, D.J. & White, K.S. (Ed„ 2001), Climate change 2001:

impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability: contribution of Working Group II to the third assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Vol. 2), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, USA.

Kien, N.D,,Tiho, A, & Alan, R, (2019), 'Evidence of climatic change in Vietaam: Some impHcalions for agricultural production', Joumal of Environmental Management, 231, 524-545

Kumar, P , Geneletti, D. & Nagendra, H. (2016). 'Spatial assessment of climate change vulnerability at city scale: A study in Bangalore, India', Land Use Policy 5S, 514-532.

Le Ngpc TuIn (2017), 'Tdng quan nghien ciru v l danh gia tinh d l bi tdn thuang do bien ddi khi hau', Tap chi phdt tnen KH&CN, 20, 45-51.

Nguyen Qude Nghi (2016). 'Danh gid sy tdn thuang do biln ddi khi hau tac dpng din sinh ke cua cdng ddng dan cu ven bien tinh Ca Mau', Tgp chi khoa hgc vd cong nghe Idm nghiep, 4, 21-29.

Nguyin Van Cdng (2012), 'Danh gia tinh d l bj tdn thuang do biln ddi khi hau ddi vdi sinh ke ngudi dan cac xa viing dem vudn qude gia Cat Ba', Luan van thae si, Trudng dai hoc Khoa hgc Ty nhien. Ha Noi.

Salik, K.M., Jahangir, S., Zahdi, W.u Z., Hasson, S.U, (2015). 'Climate change vulnerability and adaptation options for the coastal communities of Pakistan', Ocean & Coastal Management 112, 61-73.

Trdn Hihi Tudn (2012), 'Nang cao kha nang thich iing vdi biln ddi khi hau cho ngudi dan ven biln tinh Thira Thien Hul". Tgp chi Dgi hoc Hui, 72B(3), 30-38.

Uy ban Nhdn dan huyen Minh Hda (2016), Bdo cdo tong hap thiei hai do ihien tai nam 2016. Uy ban Nhdn dan huyfn Minh Hda, Qudng Binh.

Sd 261 thdng 3/2019 ⁷¹

kinliliAllrJrn