vni Tito cun Niroc I>HAP DOI VOI XU HUONG UCN K€T cun UCN MINH CHilu nu Gini DonN nnu nncxir
Bui Thi Thao*
Tom tat: La mdt trong sdu qudc gia sdng lap Lien minh Chdu Au (EU), cd nhiiu ddng gdp trong viec kien tgo vd quyit dinh cdc vdn de quan trong nhdt, nu&c Phdp dd chimg td vai trd tru cdt ddi v&i qud trinh hinh thdnh vd phdt trien cua liin minh. Sau Brexit, Liin minh chdu Au dung tru&c nhiiu thdch thuc. Trong dd, thdch thuc Icm nhdt Id cung cd vd tdng cuang xu hu&ng liin kit ndi khdi nhdm muc tiiu ldm sdng lgi mot Liin minh Chdu Au dodn kit, nhdt thi hda vd thinh vuang. V&i tu cdch Id mot trong hai qudc gia cd nhiiu tdi nguyin quyin luc nhdt. Id hgt nhdn lanh dgo cua EU, nu&e Phdp se cd ddng gdp gi'' Bdi viet phdn tich du bdo cdc xu hu&ng lien ket then chdt cua EU giai dogn hdu Brexit vd nhieng ddng gdp cua nu&c Phdp cho xu hudng do.
Tir khoa: hdu Brexit, thdch thuc, vai trd, liin kit ndi khdi, Phdp
Abstract: As one ofthe six founding countries ofthe European Union (EU), with many contributions to the creation and decision-making of the most important issues, France has demonstrated a key role in the EU's formation and development process. After Brexit, the European Union faces many challenges. Among them, the biggest challenge is to consolidate and strengthen the trend of internal links aimed at reviving an united, unified and prosperous European Union. As one ofthe Avo countries with the most powerful resources, the leading nucleus ofthe EU, what contributions will France make? The article forecast analyzes the EU's key link trends in the post-Brexit period and the contributions of France to that trend.
Ke-y words: post Brexit, challenges, role, internal links, France
1. Ddu an Phap trong tiSn trinh lien quan ttgng ciia Phap vdi tu each tbanb vien ket cua Lien minh Chau Au sang lap va la try edt ttong viec xay dyng cac
Lich sii hinh thanh va phat trien ciia lien kdt ndn tang eiia EU.
Lien minh Chau Au cbiing kiln ddng gdp Sy ra ddi cua Lien minh Chau Au dugc coi la bat dau tir sang kien cua nguyen Bg
•T>/-cTc T x« n - u ^c I. TT f ^ ° ^ S Ngoai giao Phap Robert Scbuman.
PGS.TS, Tnrong Dai hoc Sir pham Hue ,^ . „ , . „ „ . » ^ .
Nhdn hdi ngdy: 30/5/2019 ^^^^ 9/5/1950, Robert Scbuman da de nghi Phdn bien xong 7/6/2019 "^^^ ^'''^" ^^ " ^ " '^"^ ^"^^ f ^'^ ^^^P ™ Dice Chdp nhgn ddng 15/6/2019 ^^ ^^''^ ^^ ^^^P ^"''^' ^"J^^n luc chung cua
<yai tfff eua tutffe ^hap.. 103
mot td chiec m& cua cd su tham du cua cdc nu&c khdc a chdu Au "^ Sang kien nay dugc danh gia la "kien nghi diing cam phi thudng"
bdi nd khdng chi hda giai tai tinh mau thuIn sau dam giiia hai cyu thu Phap - Diic ma cdn khdi dau cho tien trinh lien ket kinh te qudc td ciia cac nudc Tay Au. Sang kien cua R.Scbuman la ca sd dd 5 nudc Tay Au khac la Italia, Diic, Ha Lan, Bi va Luxembourg ki Hiep udc P m s tbanb lap nen Cgng ddng Than Thep Cbau Au - ECSC (18/4/1951) - tidn than cua Lien mmh Chau Au.
Dong gdp cua Phap ttong qua trinh hinh thanh va phat ttidn cua EU cdn dupe ghi nhan qua vai ttd cua Bg trudng Kinh te - Tai chinh va Ngan sach Phap - Jacque Delors - khi ong giu cuong vi Cbu tich Uy ban Cbau Au ttr 1985 ddn 1995. Jacque Delors da chi dao soan thao cudn Sdch trdng gdm 300 the Ie dl tidn hanh xay dyng Dinh udc Cbau Au don nhdt nhSm tao ddng lyc cho qua ttinh nhat the hda kinb te va tao tien de thuc day hdi nhap cbinh tri cua Cgng ddng Chau Au (EC).
Vao cudi thap nien 1980, trudc chuyen biln nbanb chdng ciia tinh binh the gicd khi Chidn ttanh Lanb sap kdt thiic, vai ttd ciia Phap dugc khang dinh kbi qudc gia nay dupe vi Bd trudng Tai cbinh Lien bang Diic Wolfgang Schauble lya chpn ttong ''di xudt Schauble - Lamers" (1994) ndi tilng, chu ttuong mpt Lien minh Cbau Au dugc deu hanh bdi hai nudc Phap - Dire. Kd hoach nay thanh cdng va dua ddn sy tang trudng kinh te
cho EU da chiing td vai trd then chdt ciia Phap doi vdi Lien minh. Sau dd, sang kien nay dupe Tdng thong Phap Nicolas Sarkozy van dyng khi de xuat xay dung "khu vuc kinh te Phap - Diic" cd vai ttd nhu "ldi bop tac" d l dua qua trinb nhdt the hda kinh te EU tien len phia trudc, khi qua trinh nay dang dam ehan tai chd.
Tir sau cugc khiing hoang ng cdng tdi te nhdt ttong lich sii chau Au (2008) din nay, cung vdi Diic, nudc Phap da tao nen "tryc hat nhan" dua EU thoat ddn ra khdi cac van d l nan giai: iing phd khiing hoang kmh te - xa hdi, ciiu ddng tien chung cbau Au, tai tbilt nen kinh tS va cac lien ket chmh tri...
Ddu dn Phap ttong bien tugng "Merkozy"^
mdt ldn niia khang dinb tdm quan ttpng ciia Phap ttong vai ttd mgt ddi tac chien luge ciia Diic d l lanh dao chau Au, "mdt mdt xich quan trong, cd vai trd sdng con ddi v&i Liin minh Chdu Au vd qud trinh tdi thiit chdu Au "^ Sang thap nien thii bai ciia tbl ky XXI, chiln thdng ciia Emmanuel Macron trong cudc bdu cii tdng thdng mang tinh quylt dinh nam 2017 tilp tyc dat len vai nudc Phap ttgng ttach tien phong ttong cudc dau ttanh chi ngy sy bung phat cua chu ngbia dan biy dang cbia re Lien minh Chau Au.
Hien nay, kbi tiln trinh Brexit vdn dang didn ra, nudc Phap va Tdng thdng Emmanuel Macron cung dugc ghi nhan la ngudi ddng
Xem: Thi Deit (2000 ), Ljch sir kinh te cdc n
^ "Merkozy" la mpt each ghep chu tir ten ciia Thu tuang Diic Angela Merkel vdi TSng thong Phap Nicolas Sarkozy dS chi sir ph6i hop chat che, an y cua hai vi chinh tri gia nay.
^ Nguyen An Ha (cb) (2013), Diiu chinh chinh sdch phdt triin cua mpt s6 quoc gia chu chdt chdu Au, Nxb. Khoa hgc Xa hoi, HaNpi, tr.l75.
104 NGHIEN curu CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°6(225).2019
hanh quyen luc nhat cd the cung nudc Anb tim kiem mgt thda thuan tdt nhat cho ca Anh va Lien minh EU.
2. Vai fro cua nudc Phap ddi vdi xu huong lien kit cua Lien minh Chau Au sau Brexit, giai doan 2018 - 2025
2.1. Xu hu&ng lien kit eda Lien minh Chdu Au sau Brexit
2.1.1. Thuc trang lien kit ciia EU tie sau Hiip u&c Maastricht din nay (1992 - 2019)
Vdi Hiep udc Maastricht (1992), sau khi da tien mdt budc dai trong tien trinh nhat the hda kinb te. Lien minh Chau Au chinb tbiic dupe dinb danh va cd mdt cbinh sach ddi ngoai - an ninh chung. Tren co sd hiep udc nay, Khu vuc Schengen dugc ap dung trong toan bd EU (ttii' Vuong qudc Lien hiep Anb va Bac Ireland), gdp phan lam nen gia tri mang tinh ban sdc cua EU. Nam 1997, Hiep udc Amsterdam mang lai cho EU vi tri Dai dien cap cao ve ddi ngoai, tao dyng "mdt tieng ndi chung" cd trgng lupng ban ciia EU ttong cdng viec qudc te. Hiep udc Nice (2000) sau dd da tiep tuc tbiic day sy gan ket cua Lien minh bang each hien dai boa cac co cau ciia EU. Mac du vay, con dudng tien tdi mgt "Lien minh Chau Au thong nhdt" van edn hang loat nhiing klid khan can thao da.
Trong Iiic EU tien thoai luong nan vi cbua the thdng qua Dy thao Hien phap (2003) - dugc xem la vu khi chinb tri sac ben ciia Lien minh - thi Hiep udc Lisbon dugc ki ket, mang den cbo EU ludng sinh khi mdi.
Vdi ngi dung cai each toan dien dat dugc, nhat la ve the cbe, Hiep udc Lisbon (13/12/2007) cd y nghTa chinh tri vd ciing
quan trgng ddi vdi tien trinb lien ket ciia EU. v a n kien nay kbdng chi tang cudng hien tbyc hda sire manh toan khdi ma cdn nang cao vi the qudc te ciia EU tren trudng qudc te thdng qua "hinh anh chung" va
"tieng ndi chung" dugc dai dien bdi mgt vi Bg trudng Ngoai giao kiem Phd Cbu tjch Uy ban Chau Au.
Cd the ndi, tuy chua giai quyet bet nhiing kbd khan cdn hien hiiu trong Idng Lien minh nhimg Hiep udc Lisbon da danh dau mdt budc ngoat dac biet quan ttpng trong tien trinb Hen ket chinb tri cua EU va dat lai phia sau qua trinh cai td day khd khan keo dai gan mdt thap nien. Hiep udc Lisbon dugc xem la nen tang cho Lien minh trong the ky XXI . Tuy vay, dien bien vd cimg phirc tap cua quan be qudc te ma EU phai doi mat tir sau cudc khiing hoang ng cdng (2008) da dat hiep udc nay trudc tbyc te
"tiep tuc dupe sua ddi". Nhiing tac ddng tieu cyc tir sy tich bgp cac van de an ninh phi truyen thdng nan giai dau tbl ky XXI va he luy tir sau quyet dinh trung cau y dan lich sii ciia nudc Anb (2016) da dat Lien minh trudc tbii thaeh to ldn. Su cbia re sau sac ttong ngi bd EU ve bang loat cac van de kinb te - xa bgi, chinh tri - ddi ngoai, an ninh - quan sy, ban sac van bda... da Iam ran them nhiing vet niit vdn cd trong Lien minb. Sy phat ttiln eua cbii nghTa dan tdc vdi sy ra ddi, giii vai trd quan trgng cua nhieu dang phai, luc lugng cbinh tti theo chinb sach dan tuy d tdt
"* Theo each noi cua Thii tuong Diic Angela Merkel
(Vai trff eua nii&e (J>kd.p„. 105
ca cac nudc EU va sy phan biet dia - chinb tri ngay cang ldn giua cac nudc tbanb vien ttong LiSn minh da tao them nhieu nguy ca dirt gay trong sgi day lien kit EU. Khoang each giua cac tbanh vien Ddng Au va Tay Au ngay cang Idn; sy sat canh cua Hungary bSn canh Ba Lan de chdng lai quylt dinh cua Uy ban Chau Au ve chiic nang cua Tda an Hien phap ; sy xich Iai ciia cac nudc Nam Au de ddi ttgng vdi cac nudc "mien Bac" do Diic ddn dau ttong cac van de dan nhap cu, phan bd han ngach ngudi ti nan, chinh sach ddi vdi nudc Nga... la nhung bieu hien chia re rd net. Quyet dinh rdi khdi Lien minh Chau Au ciia nudc Anh - mdt ttong sd cac tbanh vien tru cot ciia EU - da giang them mgt ddn n^ng ne vao y chi nbdt the bda ciia Lien minh. Tam Ii hoai nghi vd tinh uu viet cua md hinh EU dugc kheu ggi manh hon bao gid bet va dii miic dp ddng tinh vdi md hinh hien tai den dau tbi viec dieu chinb va cai td tien trinh hgi nhap cua Lien minh van la xu hudng tat yeu trong bdi canh hien nay cung nhu ttong vai thap nien tdi.
2.1.2. Xu hu&ng liin kit cua Lien minh Chdu Au giai dogn hgu Brexit
Brexit la mdt bien cd lich sir ddi vdi Lien minh Chau Au. Tien trinb dam phan de Noi bat trong lire lugng nay la dang "Mat tran Dan tgc" do ba Marine Le Pen dirng dau is Phap, Dang Tu do ciia Greert Wilders o Ha Lan, Phong trao cap tien
"Podemos" a Tay Ban Nha, dang dan tuy "Nam Sao"
a Italia, dang canh ta "Su lua chgn cho Diic" o Diic, dang Syriza ciia Alexis Tsipras a Hy Lap, dang "Luat phap va cong li" cua Ba Lan va "Fides" do Viktor Orban dimg dau d Hunggary.
Xem: Duy Long, "Ba Lan, Hungary - Lien minh chong lai EU", Gido due vd thoi dai, so 46, thii Nam,
di den thda thuan Brexit day trdc ttd giua Anb vdi EU da cbiing minb trinb do lien kit cao ciia Lien minh nay nbung ciing cbo thdy tdn tbuong tdt ylu EU phai ganh chiu. Brexit lam EU mat di mgt phan len tilm lyc v l mgi mat. Viec khda lap khoang trdng cua Anb de khdi phyc va tang cudng nhirng moi lien kit cd tinh he thdng se khiln EU doi mat nhilu kbd khan. Mac dii vay, sau Brexit va ttong cac thap nien tdi, EU v i n la mdt ttnng tam quyen lyc ldn, chi phdi cyc dien the gidi dang da cyc hda. Gidi lanb dao cua cac cudng qudc ehau Au y tbiic sau sac siic manh tap the ma EU da tao nen va lgi icb cua dat nudc bg trong tu each thanh vien cua Lien minh. Vi vay, 27 quoc gia thanh vien edn lai cua EU se tilp tuc thiic ddy tiln trinh lien ket EU nhu la xu hudng tat yeu eua td chirc kbu vye ldn nhat the gidi nay. Ket qua tbam dd cii tti trudc them cudc bau cir Nghi vien Cbau Au - co quan lap phap ciia EU^- dien ra ngay 26/5/2019 ciing phan anh y nguyen ciia da sd dan chiing cac nudc tbanb vien la ung hd mdt Lien minh EU thdng nhat.
Lich sii cho thay, tien trinh lien ket ciia EU dugc khdi dau tir ITnh vye kinh te. Tien trinh nay dan dugc ttien khai toan dien bdi cac lien ket dugc md rdng ra tren nhieu ITnh vye chinb tri, ddi ngoai, an ninh - quan su, van bda dugc ket hop chat cbe vdi nhieu
Nghi vien Chau Au fa co quan lap phap ciia EU de tliuc hien 3 quyen co ban la lap phap, quyet dinh ngan sach va giam sat cac hoat dpng ctia EU, bao gom Uy ban Chau Au. Nghi vien Chau Au se bau ra Chii tjch Uy ban Chau Au.
106 NGHIEN COu CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°6(225).2019
miic do. Su kien Brexit lam suy yeu tien ttinh hgi nhap ciia EU nhung ciing tao ra ddng lyc tbiic day tien ttmh ay chuyen sang giai doan mdi vdi nhiing bien phap cai td manh me, thuc te va toan dien hon. Vdi tbyc ttang bdi nhap va nbiing yeu cau mdi dat ra cbo EU giai doan sau Brexit ttong bdi canh cue dien the gidi bien dgng phiic tap, xu hudng lien ket cua EU giai doan 2018-2025 ciing nbu ttong tuong lai, du dugc tien banh d phuong thirc va quy md nao, deu dya tten hai dinh hudng: phat ttien cac uu the san cd cua Lien minb va che ngy cac thach thiic nham tang cudng sire manh toan khdi, nang cao vi the qudc te, dam bao EU la mdt cue quyen lyc ttong ttat ty the gidi mdi. Theo do, xu hudng lien ket eua EU giai doan hau Brexit se theo cac dinb budng quan ttgng sau:
Thir nhdt. Lien minh Chdu Au se tdng cu&ng lien kit kinh ti vd uu tiin hodn thien hi thdng tdi chinh vicng chdc, ddm bdo EU la mdt the chi kinh te vd thuong mgi l&n nhdt the giai trong tuang lai.
Lien ket kinb te vdn la tbanb tyu ndi bat nhat cua EU. Hien nay, ddng Euro, khu vye Eurozone, tbi trudng ehung (CM) va Lien minh Kinb te tien te Chau Au (UEM) la nbiing minb chiing eho trinh dp lien ket kinb te cao cua kbu vuc EU. Trong dd, ddng Euro dugc xem la try cdt co ban va la tai nguyen de md rdng vi the cua EU tten trudng kinb te - chinh tri the gidi. "Nd Id kit qud cua qud trinh hap tdc kinh ti ciia EU da lin den miic hodn hdo vd khd cd mdt khdi liin kit kinh ti
khu vuc ndo cd thi cgnh tranh duffc" . Du vay, nhu thira nban ciia Bd ttudng Tai Chinh Phap Bruno Le Maire, khi ban v l ttrong Iai ciia EU ttong bdi canh canh ttanh My Trung hidn nay, EU van cbua cd cbu quyln ve tien te, cbii quyen ve tbuong mai va chii quyln ve cdng nghe. Trong do, cbii quyen ve tien te la uu tien hang dau de nang tam lien ket kinh te EU len trinh dp eao va tranh dugc riii ro. Theo dng B.Le Maire, Lien minh Chau Au ''chua di din ciing cua qud trinh chuyin ddi... chua cd dUng cdm vd tdo bgo di thuc hiin hodn todn nhimg gi md Liin minh kinh te vd tien te phdi ldm. Tie gia, trdch nhiem cua 19 nu&c trong khdi ddng Euro la phdi hodn thien khdi ndy, cung cd vd cung cdp cho khdi nhimg cdng cu di cd the ddi phd vcri bdt ky cudc khiing hodng tdi chinh hogc kinh te ndo cd thi xdy ra "^. Trdn tbyc te, Khu vuc ddng Euro chua du manh trong khi "cd qud nhieu tiin mat dang luu thdng vd na cua ed khu vuc nhd nu&c ldn khu vuc tu nhdn vdn cdn a muc cao trong nhiiu nudc chdu Au"^^ nen EU khd ttanh dugc cugc khiing hoang tien te nbu da dien ra. Do vay, muc tieu sap tdi cua lien k§t kinh te EU la Kbu vye ddng Euro can lap ra mdt ngan sach chung, mdt lien minh ngan bang giiia cac nudc tbanb vien d l dam bao
" Dinh Cong Tuin (CB), {2011), Liin minh Chdu Au hai thdp nien ddu the ky XXI, Nxb. Khoa hgc xa hoi, tr 188.
'' Thu Hang, "Lien Hiep Chau Au cdn "truang thanh"
de chang do nhung thach thiic m6i", http://vi.rfi.fr/phap/20190516-Iien-hiep-chau-au-can- truong-thanh-de-chong-do-nhung-thach-thuc-moi '" Thong t k xa Viet Nam, Tdi lieu tham khdo dac biet, so 297/TTX-DN ngay 3/10/2014, tr.lO.
(J)al trff eua nu&e 'J)hdp.... 107
Euro ttd thanh ddng tien dy trii toan cau, cd tbl sanh vdi ddla My hay Nhan dan te Trung Qudc. Dieu nay ddi hdi EU phai xay dung cho Eurozone mgt co cau ra quylt dinh tdt nhat.
Dii nudc Anb kbdng tbam gia Eurozone, song nhung thiet cbe kinb te - tai chinb va quy md thi timdng cua EU deu lien quan d i n vai ttd cua Anh vdi tu each la mdt ttong 3 nen kmh te ldn nhat khdi, mdt tbanh vien ciia Lien minh Thue quan (CU) va la trung tam tai chinh tinyen thdng cua EU. Do vay, viec ciing cd va tang cudng eac lien kit kinb t l cua EU sau Brexit se chiu anh budng Idn tir nhiing chuyen dgng kinh te ndi khdi. Mac du vay, tac dgng eua nban td ben ngoai la manh me hon. Trong do, viec Id tbudc vao cac ngudn lye ty nhidn (nang lugng, luong thuc...), chinb sach bao hd thuong mai ciia My va tham vgng md rdng quyen lyc bang ngoai giao tai cbinh ciia Trung Qudc la nhiing tac nhan ldn. Trudc thach thiic nay, EU can mdt cbien luge dai ban, hieu qua d l tang cudng lien ket kinh te, chong lai eae tae ddng iam suy yeu va phan tan tiem lyc kinh te ciia khdi. De ttd tbanb mgt thi chi kinh t l ldn nhat toan cau, mang lai thinh vugng cho Lien minh va ca chau Au, viec thdng nhat quyet tam hoan thien he thdng tai cbinh ttong Eurozone, thiet lap cbii quyen tbuong mai va phat huy uu the cdng nghe la xu hudng can ban cua lien ket kinb te EU tbdi gian tdi.
Thu hai, Liin minh Chdu Au se tiep tuc thi chi hda vd tdng cu&ng liin kit chinh tri.
Lien ket chmh tti la dilm y l u cua Lien minh Chau Au. Brexit tuy khdng Iam cbo
"phuang dn chinh tri cua khdi cd thi bi bien mdt" nhung iai khien dilm ylu nay ttd nen ndi bat. Tuy vay, ddi vai gidi lanh dao EU, Brexit tao ra ddng lyc cai tiln manh me hon cbo lien ket chinb tri - ITnh vye gap nhilu kbd khan so vdi tien trinh hgi nhap kinh ik Trong giai doan 2018-2025, tilp tuc cai each EU ve mat the ehe, hoan thien bg may lap phap sau bau cii Nghi vien (thang 5/2019), quyet dinb van dung phuong thirc ra quyet dinb dya tren "lien ket linb boat" hay "lien ket da toe do" va thu hep khoang each giiia hai khdi tbanb vien Ddng Au - Tay Au de budng den mdt Lien minh sieu qudc gia la muc tieu quan trgng cua ben kit cbinh tti EU. Xu hudng lien ket cbinh tti ndi tten deu can tinh ddng thuan nhung linh hoat va siic manh doan ket tap the cd traeh nhiem cao ciia cac nudc tbanb vien EU.
Thie ba, thuc day hap tdc an ninh - qudn su vd xdy dung lien kit vdn hda de khdi phuc bdn sdc chdu Au Id nhimg muc tiiu hu&ng din cua lien kit EU sau Brexit.
Mdt ttong nhiing dac diem Idn cua tinh hinb the gidi bien nay va la thach thiic an ninh cua EU ttong vai thap nien tdi la sy bat dinh an ninh toan cau ngay cang ldn. Ngoai tinh binh chung, EU phai ddi mat vdi tbyc te an ninh dac tbu. Trong do, sy bao hd tu "try cdt an ninh" My se khdng cdn "tuyet ddi"
nhu trudc. Ngugc lai, cac thach thirc an ninh ndi khdi ciing nhu thach thiic an ninh tir ben ngoai se da dang, phiic tap va nguy hiem
108 NGHIEN COU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°6(225).2019
ban. Do vay, de dam bao quyln lyc cua EU nbu mdt td cbiic khu vuc hung manh, viee tang cudng cac lien ket ve an ninh quan sy la vd cimg quan ttgng. Dieu nay khdng chi mang lai kba nang phdng tbii trudc cac mdi de dga ldn ma EU thudng bi nham den nhu:
chu nghTa khimg bd qudc te tan cdng, vii kbi buy diet bang loat, xung dot ndi khdi... Viec xay dung mgt quan dpi hung manh ciia EU cdn mang y nghTa quyet dinh den kha nang ty chu an ninh, ty ehii ddi ngoai va nang cao vi the qude te cua lien minh nbu mdt "tbl lyc thanh binh" (empire paisible). Theo dd, EU se tien tdi xay dyng mdt lyc lugng quan su tap the dya tren tai nguyen quan sy ciia cac qudc gia tbanh vien va cae co che an ninh nen tang.
Cd the ndi, Brexit da tao ra con dia cban trong Idng EU nhung chinh cugc khung hoang nay se tao ra ddng lyc kbien EU phai thay ddi. Do dd, sau Brexit va ca ttong vai thap nien tdi, cimg cd toan dien eac lien kit theo phuong tbiic linh boat nhung phai dugc the che hda la budng di tdt ylu ciia EU.
Trong do, lien ket tien te - thuang mai ddng vai trd tien phong va dugc ho tro manh me bdi cac lien ket chinh tri - ddi ngoai.
2.2. Vai tro eda Phdp doi v&ixu hir&ng lien kit eda Lien minh Chdu Au hgu Brexit Phap dugc thira nhan la mgt trong nhiing kien tnic su cua tien trinh bdi nhap chau Au. Sau Brexit, ciing vdi nudc Diic, Phap se tiep tuc la hat nhan ciia tien trinh dy.
Dya tten tbyc te tiem lyc va chinh sach doi vdi EU cua Phap, ddng gdp eua qudc gia nay
ddi vdi tiln hinh lien kit EU giai doan 2018- 2025 se tap tmng vao cac phuong dien sau:
Thie nhdt, Phdp ddng vai trd tru cot trong viic kiim chi vd gidi quyit cdc nhdn to gdy tdn hgi din tiin trinh lien kit todn khdi
Theo gioi ehuyen gia, EU hien nay va trong vai thap nien tdi se ddi mat vdi it nhat bdn thach thiic Ion gay phuong bai den tien trinh bgi nhap kbu vuc. Dd la khung hoang ehinh tti, khimg hoang cac gia tri, khung hoang kinb te - xa hdi va khung hoang vai trd lanh d a o " . Mgt each cu the, eac yeu td gay nguy hai ma EU can cbe ngy la sy biing phat manh me cua chii ngbia dan tiiy, chinh sach ddi vdi ngudi nhap cu, nan thdt nghiep, sy suy yeu cua ddng Euro va nen kinh te EU, nguy CO suy giam an ninh va xdi mdn ban sac cbau Au. Kbdng mdt qudc gia don le nao ed the thay the vai trd eua EU de giai quyet cac van de tten. Tuy nhien, vdi thuc lue kinh te, quan sy, anb budng cbinh tri, van hda sau rdng, nudc Phap ed tbl dam duong vai ttd tien phong ttong viec kim che va giai quyet cac khd khan nay thdng qua viec d l xudt, trien khai cac y tudng de ciing cd va thiic day ndi luc EU tren nhieu ITnh vuc.
Trin linh vuc chinh tri, chien thang thuyet phue^^ ciia Emmanuel Macron ttong cudc bau eu tdng thdng thang 5/2017 hTidc
" Theo Bernardino Leon, chii tjch Vien Han lam Ngoai giao Cac Tieu Vuong qu6c Arab Th6ng NhSt, cuu dai dien ciia Lien minh Chau Au cho viing Nam Dia Tmng Hai tai Hgi thao "Tuang lai chdu Au trudc sir canh tranh My-Trung- do Vien Quan he Qudc t6 Phap (IFRI), t6 chiic ngay 12/04/2019.
^^ E.Macron chiim 66,1% ti le philu bSu so vdi 33,9% ciia doi thii, tra thanh vi t6ng thdng tre tu6i nhat trong lich sii nuoc Phap.
(Vol trff eua nu&e (J)hdp... 109
ddi thu cyc hiiu Marine Le Pen, ngudi chii truong mdt "nudc Phap ddng cua bien gidi va tir gia mai nha chung chau Au", duge xem la budc ngoat cd tinh quyet dinh khdng chi ddi vdi Phap ma ca vdi EU. Trong bdi canh Lien minb Chau Au dang bi cbia re sau sac do sy trdi day cua xu hudng dan tdc cbii nghTa, cbien thang ciia E.Macron da mang lai mdt nudc Phap ty do thuong mai va gdn kit vdi EU, tao ra ddng lyc thiic day tien trinh hgi nhap va kim ham sy bung phat cua chu nghTa dan tdc nbu mdt tbii "dich benh" dang lay lan khap chau Au. Phat bieu sau thang Igi bau cii, E. Macron cho rang, nuoc Phap can ddng vai trd quan ttgng trong viec ciing cd Lien minb Chau Au, khang dinh se bao ve chau Au va nd lyc tao ra mdi lien kit giiia Lien minh vdi cdng dan cac nudc tbanb vien.
Do vay, E.Macron dac cu dupe coi la "thdng lgi kep" cua Phap va EU, bdi viec nudc Phap ung hd hdi nhap chau Au cd y ngbia cyc ki quan ttgng trudc Ian sdng cua tu tudng dan tgc, nhat la cban ddng lich sir nudc Anb gay ra sau Brexit. Tdng thdng Phap ciing cbo thay dng la "tuyen dau" de bao ve Lien minh Chau Au trudc nguy eo tan ra vdi chudi boat dgng keu gpi cii tri toan cbau Au va cir tri Phap di bau cii Nghi vien Cbau Au'^ va de xuat "Xay dyng lien minb ciia nbiing ngudi cap tien" de chdng lai nhiing ngudi mudn Ii khai EU.
Cuoc bau cii Nghj vien Chau Au dien ra ngay 26/5/2019 duac xem la cuoc bau cu quan trgng nhat ciia EU ke tir nam 1979 bai se quyet dinh so phan ciia Lien minh nay trong boi canh su Ion manh ciia cac lire lupng chinh tri theo tn tirong dan tpc c6 nguy ca lam
Trin Unh vuc kinh ti, de xay dyng ddng Euro manh va thiet lap cbii quyln tiln te cua EU, Tdng thdng Phap Emmanuel Macron va Cbu ticb Uy ban Cbau Au Jean-Claude Juncker da dua ra de xuat ve 3 van de chinh gdm: thanh lap ngan sach chung cbo kbu vuc ddng Euro de cd the sir dung iing phd khi xay ra khimg hoang; don gian bda quy tac ngan sach; hoan thien Lien minb ngan hang, xda bd nhiing ban cbe giiia cac the che cbo vay trong khu vye. Day la nhiing muc tieu tbyc te ma Lien minh Kinh te va Tien te cua EU (EMU) se trien khai trong thdi gian tdi.
Vi an ninh - qudn su, mgt ttong nhimg sang kien tac ddng manh den dinh hudng Hen ket ciia EU giai doan 2018-2025 la d l xuat thanh lap quan ddi rieng cho EU cua Phap. Thang 11/2018, Tdng thong E.Macron da keu gpi xay dung "mdt quan ddi chau Au thye sy". Li do dng Macron dua ra la de bao ve EU trude cac mdi de dga ben ttong, ben ngoai, ddng tbdi cbo rang EU can giam bdt sy pbu thuge vao siic manh quan sy ciia My.
Giai thich nay cang bgp 11 ttong bdi canh Tdng thdng My D.Trump tuyen bd y dinh nit khdi Hiep udc Lyc lugng bat nban tam trung INF, ddi gia tang ttach nhiem tai chinh ciia EU ddi vdi NATO. Mat khac, viec xay dyng quan dgi chung cdn la mdt phuong thiic ttong nd lyc iam biing manh EU. Tuy vay, myc tieu nay se vap pbai kbd khan dang ke ve ngan sach qudc pbdng, ve the che hda co che phdi bgp quan dgi va viec tich hgp cac be thdng vii kbi quan sy giiia cac nudc thanh vien. Dil vay, ttong bdi canh chuyen bien phiic tap ciia tinh binh the gidi hien nay va
no
NGHIEN COU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°6(225).2019 hai thap nien tdi, mdt Lien minb Chau Au tycbii, bung manh, cd vi tbl ddi hdi khdng the thieu quyen luc quan su. Dieu nay cho thay tam nihin cua Macron ve xu the lien ket an ninh - quan sy ciia EU la mgt tbyc te va mang tinh ehien luge. De xuat nay ciing la mdt bien phap ttan ap khuynh hudng suy yeu an ninh eiia EU hien nay.
Ngoai ra, nudc Phap cung la hat nhan gdp phan giai quyet cac van de ngudi nhap cu, chinh sach an sinh xa bdi, khdi phyc ban sdc van hda cbau Au... de kien tao ddng lyc lien ket van bda-xa hgi cho EU.
Thie hai, Phdp Id dgng lire vd la thdnh vien khdng the thieu di Lien minh Chdu Au xdy dung cdc liin kit tru cdt.
Trudc bet, ttong ITnh vye kinh te, Phap la nen kinb te ldn tbii hai cua EU va la thanh vien ciia Nhdm bay nudc cdng nghiep phat ttien iibat the gidi (G7), cd quy md kinb te ldn thii 6 toan cau (khoang 3,21 nghin ti USD - sd lieu nam 2017) nen sy hiing manh ciia kinh te Phap cd anh hudng tryc tiep den nen kinh te EU. Quan ttgng hon, Phap cimg vdi Due la thanh vien chu chdt ciia Hdi ddng cac Bg trudng Tai cbinh Khu vye ddng Euro (Eurogroup), la noi ra cac quyet dinh ve lien ket kinh te - tai cbinh cua EU. Do vay, khi dugc pbdng van ve vai trd cua Phap ddi vdi ben ket kinh te ttong Eurozone, cyu Bg trudng Tai chinb Diic W.Schauble khang dinh: "... Vdi tu cdch Id Bd truang Tdi chinh, tdi khdng thi tu cho phep minh dimg lin cdc kich bdn chinh tri viin tu&ng. Mdt ddng tien chung chdu Au md khdng cd Phdp la diiu
khdng thi nghi t&i. Bd se Id su chdm diet ddng Euro"^^. Rd rang, sy bung manb cua nin kinh t l Phap la nhan td quylt dinh ddi vdi sy thinh vugng ciia toan khdi.
Mdt thach thire khac anh hudng din tang trudng kinh t l EU thdi gian tdi la sy thieu hut cac ngudn lyc ty nhien, nhat la nang Iupng. De ddi phd vdi van de nay, khdi phuc ngudn cung nang lugng truyen thdng tir Nga la mdt myc tieu EU hudng den. Thuc hien muc tieu nay, ngoai vai ttd dot pha tien phong cua Dii'c ttong hgp tac nang lugng vdi Nga, viec tan dyng cac lien ket tich cyc ciia Phap dudi tbdi Tdng thdng N.Sarkozy dugc xem la yeu td tbuan Ipi de giiip EU vugt qua cac rao can trong hgp tac kinb te - nang lugng va an ninh vdi Nga ke tir xung dot Crum (2014). Vdi vai ttd la doi tac chien luge cua Nga, Phap la cau ndi de EU va Nga khdi pbuc hgp tac, trudc bet ttong ITnh vuc nang lugng va thuang mai.
Vi ddi ngogi, nang cao vi the qudc te ciia EU vai tu' each "mdt tieng ndi chung" va thuc day vai trd EU trong quan he quoc te la trgng tam lien ket ve phuong dien ddi ngoai ciia EU thdi gian tdi.
Trong do, cai thien quan he vdi Nga la mdt van de gay chia re EU nhimg tuong lai, sy phat ttien toan dien cua EU Iai tuy tbudc ldn vao Nga do nhung rang bugc Igi icb kinh tl, cbinh tti tir hai phia. Thye t l cho thdy, sau Dire, Phap la qudc gia EU cd mdi quan he thuong mai thudng xuyen vdi Nga. Trong
'"* TTXVN, Tdi lieu tham khdo ddc biet, s6 297- TTX/DN,tr.8.
(Vol trff eua nUffe (J)hdp,.„ 111
cudc bgp eua Hdi ddng Chau Au ngay 17/5/2019 vira qua, nd luc cua Phap dugc ghi nhan. Cung vdi Diic, Pbap da thuyet phyc va ddng vai ttd hda giai de thdng qua mdt ttiyen bd chung ma theo dd, Nga se ttd lai vai trd thanh vien eua Hgi ddng Chau Au. Nga, ngay sau dd, cho biet se tiep tyc ddng gdp tai chinh cho td cbiic nay va cd the tham gia cudc hpp nghi vien eua Hdi ddng Cbau Au vao thang 6/2019. Ket qua nay lam giam bdt ddng va md ra co bdi hgp tac giiia EU vdi Nga.
Vai trd cua Pbap cdn the hien ttong sang kien cua Tdng thdng Macron v l cugc hgp thupng dinb ciia EU vdi Chu tich Trung Qudc Tap Can Binh (26/3/2019). D l xudt cua Phap tao nen gia tri bieu trung ldn cbo vai trd va siic manh tap the ciia EU.
Ve an ninh - qudn su, sau Brexit, Phap la nudc cd quyen lyc quan sy ldn nhat Lien minh. La thanh vien duy nhat cua EU sd hiru h^ thdng vii khi hat nban, cd lyc lupng quan sy himg manb nhat, la mdt trong hai qudc gia xuat khau vii khi ldn nhat cbau Au, cd nhieu can eu quan su d nudc ngoai va la cudng qudc chau Au dau tien gan day the hien ro lap trudng bao ve ty do hang hai d Chau A - Thai Binh Duong, hien nay, nudc Phap cd dia vi quan ttgng nhat ve an ninh - quan sy d chau Au va EU. Phap ciing la qudc gia de xuat thanh lap quan dpi chung EU. Do dd, ttong viec nang cap co cbe hgp tac quan su cua EU giai doan sau Brexit, vai ttd then chdt cua Pbap la kbdng the thieu vang.
Ngoai ra, didu can ghi nhan la ddng gdp cd nhdn cua cdc nhd lanh dgo Phdp. Trong
tu each la nguyen thu qudc gia hay thanh vien cap cao cua EU, hg tbyc sy la nban td then chdt cbo nhieu ddng gdp mang tinh dot pha cua Phap ddi vdi tiln ttinh lien kit EU.
Ket lu^n
Tdm lai, sau nbung bien ddng dii dgi sudt hai thap nien ddu the ky XXI, sy phat ttien ciia EU gid day phu thudc ldn vao su kien dinli, tinh nang dgng, kha nang dot pha va hanh ddng tien phong cua cae eudng qudc ttong Lien minb. Trong do, nudc Pbap, dudi sy dan dat cua Tdng thdng E.Marron - vdi vai trd la qudc gia cd "ttach nhiem dac biet"
- se tiep tuc la nban td ddng lyc cho tien ttinh hdi nhap cua EU. Nhu thira nhan ciia nha ehinh tti, nha kinh te, cyu Bd trudng Tai chinb Diic Wolfgang Schauble: "Phdp la mdt qudc gia l&n, ddn tdc Phdp Id mot ddn tdc tuyet v&i,... chung ta khdng thi dua chdu Au tiin len phia trudc md khdng cd Phdp "
Tat nhien, trudc bien ddng phiic tap cua tinh hinh thuc te hien nay, nudc Phap phai duong dau vdi nhieu thach thiic. Vi the, mdt nuoc Phap don ddc ciing se khdng the day dugc banh xe lien ket cua EU.
Tai lieu tham khao 1. The Dat (2000), Lich sie Idnh ti cdc nuac Bdc Au, Nxb. Ndng nghiep. Ha Ndi.
2. Nguyin An Ha (cb), (2013), Diiu chinh chinh sdch phdt triin cua mot sd qudc gia chu chdt chdu Au giai dogn khung hodng tdi chinh vd suy thoai kinh te todn cdu, Nxb.
Khoa hgc Xa hgi, Ha Ngi.
TTXVN, "Con Iai gi sau giac mong chau Au", Tdi heu tham khdo ddc biet, s6 297/rTX-DN (30/10/2014), tr,6-12.
112 NGHIEN cau CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°6(225).2019
3. Thu Hang, Liin Hiep Chdu Au cdn
"tru&ng thdnh " di chdng da nhung thdch thiec m&i, bttp://vi.rfi.fr/phap/20190516-ben- biep-cbau-au-can-truong-thaiih-de-chong-do- nhung-tbach-tbuc-moi.
4. Dai hpc H u l (2009), 220 ndm cdch mgng Phdp (1789 - 2009) vd quan hi Viet - Phdp trong lich sie, Nxb. Chinh tri Qudc gia, na Ndi.
5. Matthias Matthijs (2018), "Europe after Brexit, a Less Perfect Union", Multilateral Diplomacy Workhop Proceedings.
6. Sanya Khetani-Shah and JiUian Deutsch (2017), Brexit Timeline: From Referendum to EU Exit.,
https ://vi'ww.politico.eu/article/brexit- timeline-from-referendum-to-eu-exit-united- kingdom-european-union/, cap nbat den 26/3/2019.
7. Luu Ngpc Trinb (CB), (2008), Kinh ti vd chinh tri the gi&i: vdn de vd xu hu&ng tiin triin, Nxb. Lao ddng. Ha Ngi.
8. Dinb Cdng Tudn (CB), (2011), Lien minh Chdu Au hai thgp nien ddu thi ky XXI, Nxb- Khoa hgc Xa bdi. Ha Ndi.
9. Thdng tdn xa Viet Nam (2014), Tdi liiu tham khdo ddc biit, sd 297/TTX-DN.
10. Vien Ngbien eiiu Chau Au (2017), Ky yeu Hdi tbao khoa hgc qudc te "BREXIT va mdt sd tac ddng tdi khu vye va Viet Nam", Ha Ndi, 11/2017.
