KINH T€ VI€T NfiM OeN NfiM 20 ^9
A ' A ' 1 A A A
CAN COI GIAI PUYET VAN DE TAM NONG lA MOT TRONG NHIlUG VAN DE THEN CHOT CUA CHIEN LirOC PHAT TRIEN KINH TE- XA KOI GIAI DOAN 2011-2020
GS.TSKH. Le Du Phong Doi hoc Kinh te Quoc dan
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U thae^ Chien lupc phat then kinh te- xa hdi CLia nude ta giai dean 2011-2020 trinh Oai hdi toan qudc l l n thif XI ciia bang da xac djnh muc tieu tdng quat can dat la: "Pha'n dau den nam 2020 nude ta cd ban trd thanh nudc cdng nghiep theo hudng hien dai; chinh trj- xa hdi dn djnh, ddng thuan, dan chii, ky eifdng; ddi sd'ng vat chat va tinh than ciia nhan dan dupe nang len rd ret; dec lap, ehii quyen, thd'ng nhat va toan ven lanh thd dupc giuf vufng; vj the ciia Viet Nam tren trudng qud'c te tiep tuc dupc nang len; tao tien de viirng chac de phat triln cae hdn trdng giai doan sau".Oe dat dupe muc tieu dd, chien lupc da chpn ra 3 hudng dot pha la:
•Thu" nhaii, hoan thien the che kinh te thj trudng djnh hudng xa hdi ehii nghTa, trpng tam la tae lap, mdi trudng canh tranh binh d i n g va cai each hanh ehinh.
- ThU'hai, phat then nhanh ngudn nhan luc, nha't la ngudn nhan life chat lupng cac, tap trung vad viec ddi rndi tcan dien nen giao due qudc dan.
- Thutba, xay diing he thdng ket cau ha tang ddng bd vdi met sd cdng trinh hien dai, tap trung vao he thdng giao thdng va ha tang dd thj Idn.
Tdi thifc Slf ban khan ve muc tieu va nhifng dot pha ndi trdn. Den nam 2020, tifc la chi cdn 10 nam nUa, nude ta cd the trd thanh mdt nude cdng nghiep theo hudng hien dai duoc khdng? Va 3 dot pha ndi tren cd bae dam che ehung ta dat dUdc muc tieu dd hay
khdng? Od la dieu rat can dupc nghien cifu, t,fnh tcan mdt each het sifc can trpng va khoa hpc. Tdi ehe rang chung ta phai tha'y duqc hien tai chung,ta la gi, chung ta dang difng d dau va sc vdi the gidi chung ta la the nac? thi mdi tirn dupe Idi giai that sii dung d i n chd 10 nam tdi. Dudi day la y kien ciia tdi ve van de nay.
Dung la 25 nam ddi mdi, kinh te- xa hdi ciia nude ta da ed budc phat then rat dang tu hae: TU mdt nude ndng nghiep ngheo nan, lae hau, GDP binh quan dau ngifdi ehua day 20,0 USD, kinh te khdng phat then dUde, ngudi dan thudng xuyen phai sdng trong canh thieu thdn tram be, chung ta da VUdn len trd ,thanh mpt nudc dang phat then. Trong 25 nam qua, nhieu thanh phd mdi, nhieu khu cdng nghiep, khu che xuat da dupe xay dung va di vad hpat ddng, he thdng ket cau ha t i n g kinh te-xa hdi-mdi trudng, ea d thanh thi va ndng thdn, dupe xay diing mdi, dupc nang cap ngay cang ddng bd va hien dai hdn, nhieu nganh nghe mdi, nhieu loai hinh djch vu mdi da duqc phat trien khap mpi mien eua dat nudc. Chfnh sach phat trien nen kinh te nhieu thanh phin da tac dieu kien cho hang tram ngan doanh nghiep, dan doanh ra ddi va phat then d mpi ITnh viic san xuat-kinh doanh. Nhd dd, nen kinh te,ludn dat dUdc tde dp phat trien cae treng may chuc nam qua; cd eau kinh te chuyen djch nhanh sang hudng tien be. Neu nam 1991, khu VLfc ndng nghiep (theo nghTa rdng la gdm ca ndng- lam-ngu nghiep) chiem 40,5%
trong tdng san pham qudc ndi, edng nghiep va xay difng chi ed 23,8% va djch vu la'35,7%, thi den nam 2009 khu vUe ndng nghiep chi edn chiem 20,91%, khu VLfc cdng nghiep va xay dung da tang len 40.24% va khu vUc dich vu tang len 38,85%. GDP binh quan dau ngUdi da dat 1200 USD vao nam 2010, va dupc xep vac hang nhiirng ni/de cd thu nhap trung binh thap ciia the gidi. Chung ta da trd thanh nude cd nhieu mac hang xuat khau thudc loai Idn eiia the gidi nhu: gao, ca phe, hd tieu, hat dieu, thuy san, hang may mac, dd da, than da, dau khf,.v.v... Chung ta cung la qud'c gia giai quyet kha td't cac van de xa hdi nhU: phat then giao due, y te, bao hiem, cham sdc nhu'ng ngudi cd hoan eanh khd khan... Dac biet, ehung ta da dat dUde nhifng thanh qua kha an tupng trong viec xoa ddi giam ngheo, met thanh tUu Idn da duqc edng ddng the gidi thifa nhan. Nhd dp, ddi sdng vat chat va tinh than eua ngudi dan nude ta da dupe nang len mot each dangke so vdi trUde ddi mdi. Cd the ndi, the va lUe CLia nudc ta tren trudng qud'c te ngay nay da khac xa se vdi 25 nam trudc.
Nhirng thanh tuu chung ta da dat dupe trcng 25 nam ddi mdi vUa qua la rat to Idn va khdng ai ed the phii nhan dupe. Tuy nhien, nhin met each,toan dien, tdi che ran_g ve cd ban, hien tai, nude ta van la met nudc ndng nghiep, tham chf mdt, sd mat cdn la c h i m phat then. De dd, nen cd tfnh toan rat ky eho muc tieu va cac giai phap treng chien lupc
Kinli I eiliiil Irien
15e INH T€ VI6T NfiM D€N NAM 2020
phat then kinh te- xa hdi giai dean 20111-2020:
Chung ta biet, cd rat nhieu tieu chf de xac dinh met nude cd phai la nudc cdng nghiep hay khdng, trong dd tieu chi trudc het la GDP tinh binh quan tren met dau ngifdi. DU thao chien lupc de ra den nam 2020 chung' ta cd ban trd thanh mdt nudc cdng nghiep theo hudng hien dai, va GDP binh quan dau ngudi tfnh thee gia hien hanh dat tU 3000- 3200 USD. Tdi nghT, vao thdi diem nam 2020 ma GDP binh quan dau ngudi tfnh thee gia hien hanh mdi dat 3000-3200 USD thi khd ed the dupc coi la mdt nudc edng nghiep, bdi le, nam 2001 Malaysia da dat 3.746 USD, nam 2006 T h i i Lan da dat 3.252,3 USD...
nhung da cd ai thUa nhan cac nudc nay la nude edng nghiep dau. Va nhu vay, den nam 2020 nudc ta' mdi bang Malaysia nam 2001, bang Thai Lan nam 2006 va b l n g Trung Qud'c nam 2008, thi thii hdi vj the ciia nude ta trong khu VUc va the gidi luc dd se the nao?
Mac khae( nam 2010 GDP binh quan dau ngudi ciia nude ta la 1200USD, ma nam 2020 mdi dat 3000-3200USD, tifc la chl tang khoang 2,5-2,6 l l n sau 10 nam nhu vay la qua cham. Cung la nhifngnude cd nen kinh te ehuyen ddi nhU ta, song nam 2001 GDP binh quan dau ngudi eiia Hungary la 5.135,9 USD, nam 2008 ho da dat 15.408 USD (tang 3 lan sau 7 nam). Cdn nude Nga, GDP binh quan d i u ngudi nam 2005 la 5.340,8 USD thi nam 2008 da dat 11.831,5 USD (tang 2,2 lan sau 3 nam).
Nhu vay, 10 nam tdi chung ta ed gi phat trien dang gpi la dot pha? Bang 1 se eho chung ta thay dupe ,phan nac thUc trang phat then giua nude ta va mdt sd nudc trong khu vuc, cung,nhu,mdt sd nudc dang ehuyen ddi hen kinh te nhu nudc ta.
- Tieu chi thif hai la cd ca'u dan cu sd'ng d thanh thj va ndng thdn. Thdng thudng, cac nudc dupe gpi la nudc cdng nghiep, thi ty le dan cU sd'ng d khu vUc thanh thi phai chiem tren 6,0%. Nam 2009, dan cU sd'ng d khu vUc thanh thi ciia nude My la 79%, Canada la 8 1 % , Han Qudc 82%, Nhat Ban 86%. Ngay ca cac nudc chua phai la nudc cdng nghiep ty le nay cung kha cao, ching han: B i c Trieu Tien- 60%, Trung Qud'c- 46%, Malaysia- 68%, Indonesia- 43%.v.v.
Nam 1990, dan sd eiia nUdc ta la 66.016.700 ngUdi; trong dd, dan eU sd'ng d khu vUc thanh thj la 12.880.300 ngudi,, chiem 19,5%; dan cU sdng d ndng thdn la 53.136.400 ngudi, chienn 80,5%. Nam 2000, dan sd ciia nude ta la 77.685.500 ngUdi; trong dd, dan eu sd'ng d khu vUc dd thi la 18.619.900 ngudi, chiem 23,97%; dan cU sd'ng d khu VLfc ndng thdn la 59.065.600 ngudi, chiem 76,03%. Nhu vay la 10 nam, ciia thdi ky nay, d i n cU sdng d khu viic dc thj eiia nudc ta mdi tang len dUdc 4,47%. Oen nam 2009 dan sd eua nudc ta la 86.024.600 ngudi, trcng dd dan cu sd'ng d khu VLfc do thj la 25.466.000 ngudi,, chiem 29,6%, dan cU sdng d khu vUc ndng thdn la 60.558.600 ngudi, chiem 70,4%. Nhu vay, 9 nam ciia
giai doan 2000- 2009, giai dean dude coi la tap trung day manh sii nghiep cdng nghiep hoa, hien dai hoa ya dd thj hoa, dan eU sinh sd'ng d khu VLfc dd thi cua nUdc ta tang them dUdc"5,63%. Cdng ea hai thdi ky, chung ta thay 20 nam vifa qua, dan cU sinh sdng d khu VUc dd thi ciia nude ta tang dupe 10,'l%. Thee dii thao chien lUdc, den nam 2020, dan cU sdng d khu viie dd thi eua nude ta se dat 45%.
Vdi each lam nhu nhifng nam vifa qua, 10 nam ma tang duqc 15,4% dan cu sdng d khu vue_ dd thj la met viec khdng de. Mat khac, nhUphan tren toi da neu, 45% dan cU sdng d khu viic dd thj lieu da dupc eoi la mdt nudc cdng nghiep hay chUa?
- Thif ba, diing la treng thdi dai ngay nay, ngudn nhan life chat lupng cac giuf vai trd quyet djnh dd'i vdi sii phat then nhanh hay cham eiia mpi qudc gia. Nhan thii'c dupc dieu dd nen met treng 3 dot pha chien lud,c chiing ta de ra la phat trien nhanh ngudn nhan life chat lupng cao,. Tuy nhien, thifc tien phat then cua nude ta trong 25 nam ddi mdi vUa qua da cho thay, viec nang cao nhanh trinh dp eiia ngudn nhan life la met edng viec khd khan, t h e e bao cao cua TS Nguyen Lan HUdng, vien trudng Vien Khoa hpc. Lap ddng, Xa hdi thi nam 2001, ca nifdc ta cd 40.108.000 lae ddng, treng dd d khu vuc ndng thdn la 30.779.000 ' ngUdi, chiem 76,7%. Oen nam 2009, sd lao dpng ea nudc tSng len 49.135.000 ngudi, va lae ddng trong khu vUc ndng thdn la 35.952.000 ngudi, chiem Bieu 1: GDP binh quan dau ngudi cua mot so nirdc
Ddn vi tinh: USD Ten nudc
1. Trung Qudc 2. Thai Lan 3. Malaicia 4. Hungary 5. Nga 6. Viet Nam
2001 - - 3.746,0 5.135,9
- -
2005 1.715,0 2.674,2 5.381,8 10.924,4
5.340,8 642,0
2006 2.016,1 3.252,3 5.769,9 11.216,6
6.925,9 723,0
2008 3.266,5 4.042,8 8.209,4 15.408,0 11.831,5 1.052,0 Ngudn: Nien giam thdng ke 2005,2009.
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KINH T€VI€T NfiM D€N NfiM 20 ^9
Bang 2: Dien bien cua lao Chl tieu
Tdng sd lao ddng (nqudi)
ddng khu vuc nom 1990
21.889.000
Ty le Sd vdi LO ca nUde (%) i 72,27 Ty le LO khdng cd CMKT i 92,23
3 nghiep giai doan 2000
24.480.600 65,09 90,73
1990-2009 2009
24.788.500 51,92 80,0 Ngudn: Tdng cue Thdng ke- Bd Lao ddng, ThUdng binh va Xa hdi 73,2%. Nhu vay sau 9 nam, ve
ty trpng, lao ddng eiia khu vUc ndng thdn giam dupe 3,5%, nhung con sd tuyet ddi lai tang them 5.173.000 ngudi.' Dieu dang ndi la trinh dp chuyen mdn-ky thuat ciia ngudi lao ddng duoc cai thien rat cham.
Nam 2001, ty id lao ddng khdng cd ehuyen mdn ky thuat ciia ca nudc la 82,95% thi den nam 2009 la 75,45%. NhU vay, sau 9 nam sd lae ddng cd chuyen mdn ky thuat mdi tang dupe 7,5%.
Od la lac ddng ciia ea nude va khu VLfc ndng thdn, heng trong ITnh,vUc ndng nghiep thi suthay ddi nay edn cham hdn.
Bang 2 cho thay, ve ty trpng, lao ddng trong khu vUc ndng nghiep sau 19 nam da giam dupe 20,35%, nhUng sd lupng tuyet dd'i lai tang them 2.899.500 ngudi va sd lad ddng khdng ed ehuyen mdn ky thuat giam dupe 12,23%. Viee trong vdng 10 nam giam ty le lao ddng khdng cd chuyen mdn ky thuat tU 75,45% (ciia ca nUdc) hay khoang 80%
(ciia ndng nghiep) xudng cdn khoang 50-55%, cung nhU giam ty le lao dpng ciia ndng nghiep tif 51,92% xudng edn 30% khdng phai la ehuyen de.
- Thif tu, tuy san xuat ndng nghiep, la ITnh vUc thuc hien viec ddi mdi dau tien va cung la ITnh vifc thu dupc nhirng thanh tUu rUc rd nhat tU ddi mdi, song, nghiem tue danh gia, chung ta thay, eho den gid phut nay ve cd ban, nen ndng nghiep ciia nUdc ta van la nen ndng nghiep nhd le, phan tan, lac hau.
Chung ta cd 9.598.800 ha dat ndng nghiep, nhung lai ed tdi tren 12 trieu hd lam ndng nghiep (neu tinh sd hd sinh sdng d ndng thdn la tren 14 trieu hd). Tren 9 trieu ha dat
ndng nghiep nay dupe chia cho eae hd ndng dan theo phUdng thifc cd gan, cd xa, ed tdt, cd xau, nen tuy mdi hp ehi cd binh guan 0,78 ha, mdi lap ddng ehi,cd 0,3 ha va mdi nhan khau chi cd 0,15 ha, nhung ed tdi 5-7 manh khae nhau cho mdt hd, va ca nude ta hien cd tren 70 trieu manh dat rudng Idn nhd. Dieu nay da lam cho san xuat ndng nghiep rdi vao tinh trang het sifc nhd le va phan tan. Da the, hien tai, ITnh vUc san xuat nay ehii yeu lai dUa tren nen tang ciia hd gia dinh ndng dan nen rat it cd kha nang Ung dung cac thanh tUu mdi eiia khoa hpe- edng nghe vao cac hoat dpng san xuat- kinh doanh. Mdt mat, hp khdng cd kha nang tai chi'nh, va mat khac, hp khdrig cd kien thUc. TrU met vai ndi cd dien tfch dat canh tac binh quan tren mdt hp tUdng ddi kha nhu Odng blng sdng Cifu Long, Odng Nam Bd, hay Tay Nguyen, ngudi ndng dan treng met sd khau eanh tae cd sU dung den may mdc, cdn cae vung khae, lao ddng thu cdng va cd b i p v l n la chi'nh. San xuat ndng nghiep, mdt ITnh vUc san xuat quan trpng, rpng Idn, chiem 52% lue lupng lao ddng ciia ca nudc ma van n i m trong tinh trang nhu vay thi dat nudc lam sao cd the trd thanh mdt nudc cdng nghiep dupe?
- ThU nam, ndng dan chiem 70,4% dan cU ciia dat nude, song day eung la bp phan ngheo nhat dat nUde hien nay.
Dat dai it, chuyen mdn khdng cd, ngudi ndng dan khd cd the kiem dupc viee lam cd thu nhap cae va dn dinh. Vi vay, hp ludn rdi vac eanh nghdo tung. Da the, do dieu kien sdng, nen hp la bd phan dan cu thudng xuyen phai ganh chiu SLf tdn that nang ne nhat do tac dpng ciia thien tai va thi
trUdng mang lai. Theo tinh toan ciia Tong cue Thdng ke, chenh leeh thu nhap giifa nhdm 20% dan cUcd thu nhap cao nhat va nhdm 20% cd thu nhap thap nhat(chii yeu la ndng dan) hien nay ciia ta la 8,4 l l n va se edn tiep tuc gia tang. Cd the ndi, ndng dan la nhifng ngudi di dau trong ddi mdi, nhung lai dupe thu hudng it nhat nhifng thanh tiiu do ddi mdi mang lai. Khdng giai quyet can ban van de ndng dan thi lam sao tao ra dupe sii ddng thuan, su dn djnh ve chfnh tri va xa hdi.
Nhu vay, van de dupc dat ra la, treng 10 nam tdi khdng tap trung giai quyet van de ndng nghiep, ndng thdn, ndng dan, ndi chiem 70,4% dan sd va 73,2% lue lupng lae ddng eua ea nude thi lam sao chung ta ed the trd thanh nudc cdng nghiep, lam sao ed the giai quyet tdt cac van de xa hdi nhu mong mudn dupc. Chinh vi the, tdi cho r i n g c i n phai coi giai quyet van de tam ndng la mpt trong nhifng diem m l u ehdt ciia chien lupc phat trien kinh te-xa hdi ciia nudc ta giai dean 2011-2020.0
Tai lieu Tham khao:
1. Dang cpng san Viet Nam: DU thao cac van kien trinh Dai hpi XI CLia Dang, Ha Noi. 4/2010.
2. TS Nguyen Lan HUdng: Lao dong, viec lam a Viet Nam: thuc trang va giai phap. Ha Noi, thang 10/2010.
3. Nien giam Thong ke nam 1995, 2000,2005 va 2009- Nha xuat ban Thong ke.
4. Le Du Phong Nong dan Viet Nam thuc trang va mot so kien nghi.
Tap chi van phong cap uy, so 9 thang 6/2008.
