CHAPTER 5: RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS 5.1 Introduction
5.5 Conclusions on research and new data
derived from cheaper foodstuffs of vegetal origin like p a s t a ' s , rice and p o t a t o e s .
However when Table 4.6 is considered, there appears to be very little difference of per household consumption of a l t e r n a t i v e carbohydrates between wage earners and the unemployed.
Whilst the data in its present form is too broad to enable a conclusion to be drawn, the principle of alternating between vegetable carbohydrates on the basis of affordability and prevailing price is worth further r e s e a r c h .
The c i r c u m s t a n c e s p r e v a i l i n g in the black African p o p u l a t i o n , as 94% of national consumers and 70% of provincial consumers of maize, are c o n s i d e r e d .
5.5.1 Per Capita income growth and spending power
The data and findings presented in Chapter 4.1 concluded that wage increments of black African income had exceeded inflation by at least 12 percent.
The fortunes of the population group as a whole however, declined in real terms by nearly 3% over the period under review. This is due p r i m a r i l y to increased rates of unemployment and impacts on the p o p u l a t i o n ' s ability to feed itself.
This would i n c r e a s i n g l y limit the ability of the population group, by far the most dominant maize consumers, to exercise choice in the type of food p u r c h a s e d . This brings to mind E n g e l ' s law and B e n n e t t ' s law.
It is not u n r e a s o n a b l e to conclude that a population getting p r o g r e s s i v e l y poorer and suffering under increased unemployment levels will fall back on cheaper staple foods in preference to more expensive convenience foods.
This study however concludes that this assumption is not n e c e s s a r i l y so and other aspects of u r b a n i s a t i o n , themselves encouraging a migration away from staple foods, overrides this aspect.
The spending power of the white population group, as a proportion to the p r o v i n c e s p o p u l a t i o n , increased from 58% in 1996 to 63.7% in 2 0 0 1 . This factor alone will dominate advertising budgets targeting the p r o v i n c e of Gauteng and it can be safely concluded that the nature of marketing campaigns and advertising will be orientated toward a Western market.
To support the argument that a poorer population will not n e c e s s a r i l y migrate back to basic food, Chapter 2.5.3.1 is referred to where consumption and pricing was discussed. A comparison of the pricing trends depicted in Figure 2.12 and the consumption trends depicted in Figure 2.13 revealed that, if anything, a slight decline in consumption (and presumably a migration to alternative carbohydrates like rice and p o t a t o e s ) will be experienced in an environment of sharp increases in retail p r i c e s of maize. However in an environment of decreasing p r i c e s , there is no corresponding increase in consumption as would be expected according to the conventional theory of price e l a s t i c i t y of demand.
The advertising campaigns are sophisticated and persuasive and a number of authorities have commented on how they influence spending p a t t e r n s on urban p o p u l a t i o n s .
5.5.2 Per capita maize consumption
This aspect is central to the study but was the most difficult in d e t e r m i n i n g with any degree of accuracy, p r i m a r i l y for two r e a s o n s : -
> Data from different a u t h o r i t i e s and even from the same authority but in different p u b l i c a t i o n s did not c o r r e l a t e .
> Data was reported on a national basis and short of sampling the Gauteng p o p u l a t i o n over a period of time, already identified as a l i m i t a t i o n , the c o n c l u s i o n had to be drawn that Gauteng consumption trends will mirror national consumption t r e n d s .
Table 4.5 draws national consumption s t a t i s t i c s from SAGIS as well as milling extraction figures ( o u t p u t ) . Population figures are drawn from STATS SA and the r e s u l t a n t per capita consumption trend over the period under review is a simple arithmetic calculation which reveals a declining trend of 17% over the 5 years under review.
5.5.3 Eating habits of income earners verses the unemployed
This aspect was considered in light of the fact that most income earners tended to be urban r e s i d e n t s as the urban areas are the p r o v i d e r s of employment in the country.
Again the data reflects the circumstances on a national b a s i s , but it can be safely concluded that, as stated, income earners are p r i m a r i l y urban r e s i d e n t s .
Household consumption of a basket of foods was analysed and the study grouped the foods into categories to enable a comparison to be drawn between basic grains, convenience foods, alternative carbohydrates and meat.
Comparisons of household consumption of the various categories were drawn between groups of people based on degrees of income.
The findings corroborated anecdotal evidence of a migration to a l t e r n a t i v e foods with increasing levels of income. In addition both E n g e l ' s law and B e n n e t t ' s law was confirmed.
Households containing wage earners tended to consume approximately 29 kilograms of grain each every month whilst the unemployed tended to consume over 50 kilograms per person.
The move to convenience foods is apparent in that wage earner h o u s e h o l d s consumed an average of 51 loaves of bread a month compared to the 39 per month consumed by households consisting only of unemployed p e o p l e .
5.5.4 Members per household
One of the findings of the literature survey was that Gauteng was becoming an i n c r e a s i n g l y attractive destination for young single people looking for work. The inference could then be drawn that these people, whether employed or not, and susceptible to the marketing campaigns for convenience food alluded to earlier, would not be inclined to involve t h e m s e l v e s in time consuming meal preparation a c t i v i t i e s .
In order to support this assumption, the study attempted to quantify the extent of the increase of single people resident in the p r o v i n c e . The censuses of 1996 and 2001 were drawn from and calculations concluded
that the number of black African households increased over the period and the members per household decreased over the period. The conclusion was that this was due to the increase in the number of single p e o p l e .
This was corroborated by the number of young people increased in p r o p o r t i o n over the period as well as the fact that the HSRC (2005) report on migration into Gauteng came to the same conclusion.
5.5.5 The increasing role of woman in the labour force
A p o p u l a r conclusion regarding reasons for the decline in maize consumption p r e v a i l i n g in the industry is that women are becoming
i n c r e a s i n g l y active in the labour force. This study attempted to quantify this aspect by analysing data published from the censuses of 1996 and 2 0 0 1 .
C a l c u l a t i o n s detailed in Chapter 4.5 confirm this trend and indicate that the extent is that black African women have increased their presence in the work force from 35.9% in 1996 to 3 8 . 3 % in 2 0 0 1 .
The reason for the i m p o r t a n c e of this aspect is that women are the t r a d i t i o n a l meal p r e p a r e r s of meals. Maize p r e p a r a t i o n requires c o n s i d e r a b l e time and with the increasing presence of women in the work force, time c o n s t r a i n t s encourage seeking out alternative c o n v e n i e n c e foods.
This study discusses a number of the phenomena that results from u r b a n i s a t i o n , which directly influence the food demand patterns of a p o p u l a t i o n .