CHAPTER 5: RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS 5.1 Introduction
5.2 Recommendations
The problem declining per capita maize consumption has not gone unnoticed in the maize industry and already c o n s i d e r a b l e effort has been expended on the search for an answer.
Up until recently the thrust of effort has been expended on trying to make the product cheaper and of a better quality. It has become apparent that the conventional theorem of price elasticity of demand does not n e c e s s a r i l y apply to maize consumption in the longer term. The study has seen that substantial fluctuations in the raw material price, t r a n s l a t i n g into the retail price of meal, does not necessarily affect
demand. Substantially more expensive maize will definitely see a move to cheaper a l t e r n a t i v e s , whilst s u b s t a n t i a l l y cheaper maize does not n e c e s s a r i l y result in a corresponding increase in maize demand.
N o t w i t h s t a n d i n g this observation, the maize industry remains a s u b s t a n t i a l link in the c o u n t r y ' s food chain and still provides the c o u n t r y ' s masses with n u t r i t i o n and sustenance.
In the face of a prolonged and sustained u r b a n i s a t i o n p r o c e s s , globally the most intense according to the United N a t i o n s , maize has seen its dominance as the c o u n t r y ' s staple food diminish in the face of more c o n v e n i e n t foods.
Consumption of red and white meat is increasing as well as wheat based baked p r o d u c t s .
The problem of declining maize consumption needs a fresh look at the uses for maize in the search for a l t e r n a t i v e s . This must include but not be confined to the food industry. The r e c o m m e n d a t i o n s which follow discuss a number of the directions that can be possibly pursued.
5.2.1* Food uses for maize
Currently maize is used for breakfast cereals, brewing, snack foods, thickening agents, meal and animal feed.
5.2.1.1 Fast food and convenience food
The most dominant use which consumes the greatest capacity is meal for human use, which has been the topic for research for this study.
Currently maize meal does not lend itself to fast food processing in the same way as wheaten flour does.
It would be misguided to attempt to find a maize based hamburger bun, hot-dog roll or chicken breading flour. Maize will not lend itself to the p r o c e s s e s required for those p r o d u c t s .
Maize m e a l ' s future will be found in products sold in the taxi r a n k s , train stations and pavements of urban commuters. It must lend itself to be prepared in situ and result in minimum waste and minimum energy c o n s u m p t i o n .
Milling companies should investigate supplying facilities for in situ p r e p a r a t i o n thereby locking in the demand for that c o m p a n y ' s product.
This also lends itself to branding o p p o r t u n i t i e s .
The dramatic increase in single people and decrease in the number of members per household cannot be ignored. The challenge would be to find a means to market convenient maize p r e p a r a t i o n s for single p e o p l e .
Recommendation: -
Milling companies can empower individuals by setting up p o r t a b l e facilities to allow the p r e p a r a t i o n of instant warm maize based meals, with perhaps a variety of sauces and condiments. These can be placed s t r a t e g i c a l l y in taxi ranks and train stations. This is an enormous branding opportunity and also facilitates product e x t e n s i o n s , trials etc.
Research will have to be done to find how to turn maize into a product that facilitates quick and cot effective p r e p a r a t i o n .
5.2.1.2 Maize oil for baking
A p o s s i b l e future use for maize is maize oil. Maize oil is currently a niche product used in some health shops and alternative food o u t l e t s . However according to H u g h ' s (2005) a New Zealand based authority on uses for p l a n t s , maize oil can be used as a substitute for olive oil and has been authorized as such in Australia.
In addition, the study reveals the likelihood that maize oil can be used as a substitute for fats used in the baking of bread, currently dominated by palm oil mostly obtained from Malaysia.
The extraction of oil from the maize milling process would be considered highly valuable to the larger milling groups in the country, all of whom mill wheat, p r e d o m i n a n t l y for group bakeries, as well as milling maize. Premier Foods, the c o u n t r y ' s largest maize miller also
mills wheat in the Snowflake brand and provides flour for group bakeries which pack in the Blue Ribbon brand. The group bakeries use an estimated 75 tons of baking fat per month. If maize oil, as a by product of the groups maize milling activity could substitute t h i s , the savings could p o t e n t i a l l y be s u b s t a n t i a l .
R e c o m m e n d a t i o n : -
Milling companies can i n v e s t i g a t e the feasibility of extracting oil from the waste (germ and bran) that is a result of the conventional milling p r o c e s s . The resultant oil can then substitute conventional vegetable fat for bread baking, p a r t i c u l a r l y in milling c o m p a n y ' s own bakery d i v i s i o n s .
5.2.1.3 Marketing the healthy aspects of maize
Milling companies should invest in campaigns that emphasize the healthy aspects of a staple grain diet. The Government has already l e g i s l a t e d the mandatory dosing of maize meal with vitamin c o c k t a i l s , but with limited success due to the unabated decline in consumption l e v e l s .
The well intentioned campaign to rectify the nutritional deficiencies of many of the c o u n t r y ' s poor is having an impact, but only with people who eat maize. Compounding this issue is the recent re-focus of milling
companies on urban areas in order to preserve m a r g i n s . Food security and m a l n u t r i t i o n issues are p a r a d o x i c a l l y greatest in rural areas.
It has been revealed that nutritional deficiencies increase in prevalence as the intake of animal p r o d u c t s i n c r e a s e s , such as in urban p o p u l a t i o n s . R e c o m m e n d a t i o n : -
P u b l i c i z e the negative aspects of fatty and sugary diets and offer a l t e r n a t i v e s in the form of maize based meals. These do not have to be c o n v e n t i o n a l " p a p " but can be the basis for a well balanced diet. The p o s s i b i l i t y of Department of Health and Heart Foundation involvement can be i n v e s t i g a t e d .
5.2.1.4 The White population group
The white population g r o u p ' s p r o p o r t i o n a l share of Gauteng earnings has increased from 58% in 1996 to nearly 64% in 2 0 0 1 . This represents a c o n s i d e r a b l e market that has been hitherto neglected. This is most likely for cultural reasons in that the industry is trapped in a mindset that maize is the staple food of the black African population group.
R e c o m m e n d a t i o n s : -
The prevailing p e r c e p t i o n of maize being a black African meal has to be dispensed with. P o s s i b i l i t i e s of adding value to maize based foods is to be investigated and again, the healthy aspects of a grain based diet have
to be properly and s e n s i t i v e l y marketed. One p o s s i b i l i t y is that maize can be the base in many of the n u t r i t i o n a l dry mixes found in many health shops.
The challenge for maize is twofold: -
> To find a way to allow easy, convenient and versatile uses for the product, and thereby,
> Altering the image of the foodstuff as being food of the poor, and in p a r t i c u l a r capturing the white market.
5.2.2 Non food uses for maize
Perhaps the greatest p o t e n t i a l for maize to regain the value it used to c o n t r i b u t e to the national economy lies in the non-food applications of maize p r o d u c t s .
Already substantial research is being done to provide alternatives to the many risks associated with using fuel derived from n o n - r e n e w a b l e r e s o u r c e s such as mineral oil.
5.2.2.1 Ethanol from maize
There are other sources of ethanol, such as sugar cane and sugar beet, but it is maize that p r o v i d e s the greatest yield per ton of feedstock.
Ethanol has many applications such as industrial s o l v e n t s , p h a r m a c e u t i c a l s , a d h e s i v e s , inks etc. but it is as a gasoline substitute where its greatest p o t e n t i a l l i e s . Ethanol can be used as a gasoline substitute in 2 ways: -
> An outright replacement in dedicated internal combustion e n g i n e s .
> An effective octane booster and can be blended up to 30% in c o n v e n t i o n a l gasoline without engine m o d i f i c a t i o n s .
Ethanol is promoted because it has a net energy b a l a n c e , in other words the energy contained in a ton of ethanol is more than the energy required to produce it. Ethanol has less of an environmental impact than gasoline and is h e a l t h i e r .
5.2.3 Business Models
Sections 5.2.1 and 5.2.2 discuss possible food and non-food uses for m a i z e .
A healthy and viable maize industry is a crucial link in the n a t i o n ' s food security chain. The vast majority of the c o u n t r y ' s population use maize for their daily sustenance and nutrition and, despite declining consumption t r e n d s , this is unlikely to change in the long term.
The industry is struggling with profitability issues out of their control and is re-aligning s t r a t e g i e s to concentrate on urban areas where margins can be preserved to a degree.
This all but leaves the rural areas to informal and o p p o r t u n i s t i c millers whose long term s u s t a i n a b i l i t y and commitment to legislated vitamin fortification levels is q u e s t i o n a b l e .
Despite the degree of u r b a n i s a t i o n , the rural areas of the country are still where the majority of the c o u n t r y ' s population lives and this is the area where food security concerns are greatest.
An a l t e r n a t i v e business model for the industry which preserves the v i a b i l i t y of the industry whilst distributing product to the people is outside of the scope of this study. It is however considered of such i m p o r t a n c e that the study feels the need to highlight the issue.