Namibia has o e of he orld's riches fishi g gro ds a d fishi g is po e iall he mos impor a sec or of he eco om af er
mi i g . The i -shore fishi g i d s r has bee domi a ed b So h Africa compa ies hile he l cra i e off-shore, or deep-sea,
i d s r has bee r b bo h Wes a d Eas E ropea fishi g flee s . There has bee o reg la io b he occ pa io regime - par l
beca se he apar heid regime ca o legall declare a 200 mile eco omic e cl sio o e - a d, as a res l , o er-fishi g has
se erel deple ed s ocks . Pilchard a d hale ha e bee ir all des ro ed a d hake a d mackerel, po e iall or h R2 billio per a m, ha e bee serio sl deple ed . The i d s r 's co rib io o GDP has falle from a a erage of 20% i he 70s o a a erage of
5% i he '80s .
AGRICULTUREThe hird ke sec or, agric l re, co rib es appro ima el 12% of GDP hile emplo i g hree fif hs of he eco omicall ac i e
pop la io . The b lk of hose emplo ed are, ho e er, absorbed b
"i formal" or peasa agric l re hich co rib es o l 3% of GDP . I co ras o he i formal sec or, hi e se ler farms emplo o l 12% of he orkforce . Persis e dro gh i he earl a d mid '80s has co rib ed o a rela i e decli e i se ler agric l re's share of GDP o er he las hree decades . I has bee es ima ed ha o e
hird (i .e . 1,700) of e is i g se ler-o ed farm i s are eco omic a d he o l ma age o co i e hro gh s a e
assis a ce . B co ras , peasa agric l re recei es ir all o i es me or marke i g s ppor , a d la d is se erel o ercro ded .
COST OF TEEGCCUPATION
The cos o Namibia of So h Africa's occ pa io has bee gro i g, bo h i h ma a d i eco omic erms . The eco om as a hole has bee depressed for he las 10 ears as a res l of lo mi eral prices, he o er-e ploi a io of he fishi g reso rces, prolo ged dro gh , fi a cial misma ageme a d, o leas , o decades of ar . GDP gro h be ee 1977 a d 1988 had bee es ima ed a -2% . Some
35% of GNP has bee e por ed a all o foreig ba k acco s . So h Africa has rece l imposed a R750m . foreig deb o he
co r . The a erage hi e age is 20 imes he a erage black age - his is i a co r i h o e of he highes GDPs per capi a i Africa! The eco om has o crea ed e o gh jobs for he risi g
pop la io , a d he emplo me ra e is es ima ed o be o er 30%
a d gro i g . UNICEF has rece l es ima ed ha be ee 1980 a d 1988 90,000 Namibia s (or 5% of he pop la io ) died as a direc a d i direc res l of So h Africa's colo ial ar .
CONSTRAINTS ON THE ECONOMY
The legac of he ar a d he occ pa io ill se erel co s rai he eco omic policies of he go er me of a e l i depe de Namibia . Fac ors s ch as he occ pa io regime's as ef l crea io a d
misma ageme of parallel "ba s a " admi is ra i e s r c res, he lack of a ce ral ba k e c . ill impose major diffic l ies i
se i g p e , orkable fiscal a d mo i ori g s r c res . I rece ears he occ pa io regime has bee r i g p a large
e er al deb . U der i er a io al la o he s ccessio of s a es, a SWAPO go er me o ld o be obliged o ho o r his . The
admi is ra i e s s em i i self is obsole e, i efficie , racis a d
So h Africa corpora io s, i cl di g some ke Afrikaa er-o ed firms .
FISH
Namibia has o e of he orld's riches fishi g gro ds a d fishi g is po e iall he mos impor a sec or of he eco om af er
mi i g . The i -shore fishi g i d s r has bee domi a ed b So h Africa compa ies hile he l cra i e off-shore, or deep-sea,
i d s r has bee r b bo h Wes a d Eas E ropea fishi g flee s . There has bee o reg la io b he occ pa io regime - par l
beca se he apar heid regime ca o legall declare a 200 mile eco omic e cl sio o e - a d, as a res l , o er-fishi g has se erel deple ed s ocks . Pilchard a d hale ha e bee ir all des ro ed a d hake a d mackerel, po e iall or h R2 billio per a m, ha e bee serio sl deple ed . The i d s r 's co rib io o GDP has falle from a a erage of 20% i he 70s o a a erage of
5% i he '80s .
AGRICULTUREThe hird ke sec or, agric l re, co rib es appro ima el 12% of GDP hile emplo i g hree fif hs of he eco omicall ac i e
pop la io . The b lk of hose emplo ed are, ho e er, absorbed b
"i formal" or peasa agric l re hich co rib es o l 3% of GDP . I co ras o he i formal sec or, hi e se ler farms emplo o l 12% of he orkforce . Persis e dro gh i he earl a d mid '80s has co rib ed o a rela i e decli e i se ler agric l re's share
of GDP o er he las hree decades . I has bee es ima ed ha o e hird (i .e . 1,700) of e is i g se ler-o ed farm i s are
eco omic a d he o l ma age o co i e hro gh s a e
assis a ce . B co ras , peasa agric l re recei es ir all o i es me or marke i g s ppor , a d la d is se erel o ercro ded .
COST OF TAE' - QCCUPATIONThe cos o Namibia of So h Africa's occ pa io has bee gro i g, bo h i h ma a d i eco omic erms . The eco om as a hole has bee depressed for he las 10 ears as a res l of lo mi eral prices, he o er-e ploi a io of he fishi g reso rces, prolo ged dro gh , fi a cial misma ageme a d, o leas , o decades of ar . GDP gro h be ee 1977 a d 1988 had bee es ima ed a -2% . Some 35% of GNP has bee e por ed a all o foreig ba k acco s . So h Africa has rece l imposed a R750m . foreig deb o he
co r . The a erage hi e age is 20 imes he a erage black age - his is i a co r i h o e of he highes GDPS per capi a i Africa! The eco om has o crea ed e o gh jobs for he risi g pop la io , a d he emplo me ra e is es ima ed o be o er 30%
a d gro i g . UNICEF has rece l es ima ed ha be ee 1980 a d 1988 90,000 Namibia s (or 5% of he pop la io ) died as a direc a d i direc res l of So h Africa's colo ial ar .
CONSTRAINTS ON THE ECONOMY
The legac of he ar a d he occ pa io ill se erel co s rai he eco omic policies of he go er me of a e l i depe de Namibia . Fac ors s ch as he occ pa io regime's as ef l crea io a d
misma ageme of parallel "ba s a " admi is ra i e s r c res, he lack of a ce ral ba k e c . ill impose major diffic l ies i
se i g p e , orkable fiscal a d mo i ori g s r c res . I rece ears he occ pa io regime has bee r i g p a large
e er al deb . U der i er a io al la o he s ccessio of s a es, a SWAPO go er me o ld o be obliged o ho o r his . The
admi is ra i e s s em i i self is obsole e, i efficie , racis a d
corr p . The direc l prod c i e sec ors of he eco om are i poor shape, especiall ra chi g a d fishi g - ho gh, as o li ed belo ,
here has bee some impro eme i he las o ears . The o l radi g por , Wal is Ba , ill be a leas emporaril co rolled b So h Africa, as ma m ch of he road a d rail ha lage flee -
lea i g he ra spor s s em i a bad s a e . Skilled professio al, ar isa a d ma ageriaj. losses ill possibl be se ere d e o " hi e fligh " i he af erma h of i depe de ce . I s i io al a d da a bases for he ma ageme of he eco om are i adeq a e a d
dis or ed . As me io ed abo e, he eco om is er l erable o freq e i er a io al commodi price fl c a io s . Fi all , here
ill be a problem sa isf i g he aspira io s of abo 15,000 -
20,000 ho seholds i he e black middle class crea ed b he So h Africa s a d he mi i g compa ies, a d hose of he 30,000-s ro g
local mili ia ho ha e bee recrll . ed o i fla ed ages .
GROUNDS FOR SOME OPTIMISMI spi e of his appalli g legac SWAPO has some gro ds for op imism . Mai l d e o he effec of high dollar a d s erli g
radi g prices si ce 1986, GDP has i creased i real erms a abo 2% per ear . The e er al bala ce impro ed a d he e er al deb sligh l fell . The e cha ge ra e decli ed fas er ha i fla io helpi g e por sec or profi s o look heal h . Agric l re
be efi ed from be er rai fall a d higher karak l prices . The i - shore fish ca ch impro ed ho gh i is o e clear he her s ocks ha e reall reco ered . Diamo d o p rose sligh l , al ho gh here remai s spicio s of he impe di g e ha s io of he be er-grade deposi s a d heir s ockpili g i Lo do a d S i erla d . Base me al prices impro ed as did dema d for mos of he mi eral
prod c s .
Q i e apar from he possibili of s ar i g o ma age he eco om from a be er base ha he decade '76-'86 offered, SWAPO o
belie es ha prospec s for he reco er of he eco om look good if he i depe de ce process co i es o rack I recog ises ha i ill face a e ormo s ask i he i i ial period merel o mai ai le els of prod c io a d rade i he face of he co s rai s
o li ed abo e . SWAPO has said ha i is co fide , ho e er, ha a i depe de Namibia ill offer good oppor i ies o i es ors a d he commercial farmers pro ided he co-opera e i he cha ges
ecessar o e d colo ial s r c res . Mee i gs i h some of he mi i g compa ies a d he J l '88 S ockholm mee i g i h hi e Namibia s ha e helped o re-ass re all sides . I is fairl cer ai
ha i depe de ce ill bri g a proper boom i i s ake a d boos
he eco om ge erall . SWAPO ca als e pec a cer ai amo of
i er a io al rehabili a io a d de elopme aid o ge ero s erms,
al ho gh o hi g eq i ale o he damages ha o ild be claimed
agai s Wes er a d So h Africa firms hich ha e broke he
i er a io al ba o deali gs i h he colo ial eco om .
' Eco omic reali i Namibia
50
Wolfga g Thomas, i h he Small Bosi- ess De elopme Corp, is a hor of
Eco omic De elop-
me i Namibia
(1978 .1The follo i g a al sis of he eco- omic prospec s for a i depe de Namibia is ake from a ar icle i he Febr ar edi io of Die Se d-Afrikaa . Three dime sio s call for a e io : he poli- ical a d s ra egic : demographic a d ma - po er shif s : a d he direc io of he eco-
om .
As regards he i er al poli ical a d s ra- egic de elopme s d ri g he ra si io al phase . SA's domi a posi io as eighbo r, i s co rol of Wal is Ba a d o er helmi g regio al po er are of cardi al impor a ce.
Toge her i h his is he fac ha he Wes - er po ers, he So ie U io , he OAU a d e e S apo ha e o i eres , i h he o se of a po er ac m (as i A gola i 1975), i scr mmagi g . for domi a io . Namibia's deepl he eroge o s pop la io mi o ld ha e made he o come of s ch a process par ic larl predic able .
See i his perspec i e, SA's co i i g prese ce i Wal is Ba is h s probabl s abilisi g, a d i o ld seem improbable
ha S apo or diploma ic leaders o ld ad- dress his po e ial poi of co flic d ri g
he ra si io al phase .
The i er al elec io process ill probabl be o ershado ed b he ge eral accep a ce
ha i depe de ce ill o l be realised i h- i he frame ork of a closer eco omic a d s ra egic i erdepe de ce i h SA. While par poli ical rhe oric ill probabl o be dampe ed b his, he leadership of all he mai par ies ill be horo ghl a are of his frame ork .
The i fl e ce of se ior officials i he ario s S a e depar me s - a d heir co - i ed prese ce d ri g he ra si io sho ld o be deres ima ed i his regard.
Regardi g demographic a d ma po er cha ges, he e o ears co ld be rela i e- l ra ma ic - especiall for some gro ps b i ie of he o al pop la io of 1,5m (300 000 ho seholds) hese problems do o appear o be i s rmo able .
I is e pec ed ha a par of he almos 80 000 Namibia s li i g i camps i eigh- bo ri g s a es ill re r . If heir re r direc l coi cides i h he i hdra al of he sec ri forces i he or h, a d i ho pro isio for fi a cial assis a ce o ho se-
holds, a cri ical si a io co ld easil arise . I ha case he press re of he so h ard migra io co ld i crease, crea i g problems i he Wi dhoek area .
Parallel o his s ream, a mber of smaller o es ca be e pec ed : he U ag
roops a d assis a perso el, skilled Nami- bia s ho are spread aro d he orld (b
ho ill probabl re r af er he elec io ), a d ario s foreig e per s, b si essme , poli ical obserers, a d o hers from co ries borderi g Namibia (i cl di g from SA)
ho o ld a o joi he "Uh r ba d-
ago ."
Agai s ha , a fair mber of hi e (a d colo red) reside s of Namibia ill joi he prese e od s, ho gh probabl o i grea
mbers . Tho gh cr ches as a res l of he e od s of skilled labo r co ld occ r, a d hile e arri als co ld o fill hose aca - cies i he shor - erm, o e sho ld o e pec crises d ri g he ra si io al period . The pro imi of SA a d he possibili of re- cr i i g co rac orkers o a shor - erm basis sho ld mi imise hese da gers .
A he same ime, o drama ic eake i g is e pec ed o he eco omic side . Namibia's ke sec ors - mi i g, agric l re, fisheries a d commerce -- are ell de eloped a d ha e a co ple of ears of reaso able gro h behi g hem . The co s r c io sec or is gro i g all he ime, a d he i creasi g rba isa io (alread abo 45%), ill re- ai i s mome m .
D ri g he ra si io , b dge fi a ci g ill be primaril a problem of ego ia io , si ce he defici s ill be rela i el small i rela io o SA's decli i g defe ce commi - me s i Namibia a d i s o al b dge .
The ge eral e pec a io is ha foreig aid ill be rela i el smaller ha hoped for . Ye i s ill seems possible o mobilise f ds, o her
ha pri a e capi al, for specific aid or bridg- i g programmes (for e ample, he rei e- gra io of ref gees i he or h) . The si gle bigges problem is cer ai l compe sa io for red ced defe ce spe di g i he eco om of he or h .
The hree ears af er i depe de ce ill probabl be he mos cr cial phase i he decade ahead . While spec la io abo spe- cific re ds a his s age is er risk , i is
or h ske chi g he o li es of o e sce ario.
I he 10- ear deba e o er possible de el- opme s i a i depe de Namibia, spec - la io abo he composi io of he firs i depe de ce go er me of e arose . Bear- i g i mi d he limi a io s imposed b Na- mibia's depe de ce o SA, i seems ha a go er me of a io al i 'L is ir all a si e q a o for a more s able e S a e . A aria - sa he e cl sio of S apo or some of he DTA gro ps - ill probabl o remai i po er for er lo g.
Agai s his backgro d, i seems likel ha Namibia's eco omic s s em ill be a rela i el pragma ic mi re of socialis ideals a d capi alis reali ies, more or less alo g he li es of he pa er i Zimbab e .
If his ro e is follo ed from he o se hich looks possible i he ligh of Africa's rece pas - he dreaded fligh of capi al
a d skills from he co r ca be sig ifi- ca l co ai ed, especiall if he e go - er me resis s imposi g dras ic foreig e - cha ge co rols . Wi h s ch a pragma ic polic i is q i e possible ha he re r of skilled Namibia s a d o her immigra s co ld fill mos of he aca cies ca sed b emigra io .
The same co ld happe i h capi al flo if here is a s mpa he ic a i de o ards he mi es, i d s r a d fi a cial i s i io s, o pre e a fligh of capi al, a d if a he same ime here is a combi a io of de elopme aid a d foreig pri a e i es me .
Taki g i o acco Namibia's pop la io of 1,5m, i s ork force of j s more ha 500 000, a d a a al pop la io gro h of 45 000 as ell as a ork force i crease of be ee 18 000 a d 20 000, i s reso rce base is o ha fa o rable, especiall com- pared o o her Africa s a es .
If he e regime ca co solida e i s poli- ical posi io i hi hree or fo r ears, a more grad al eco omic gro h process sho ld cer ai l be possible hereaf er . As far as e por s are co cer ed, fish, mi erals, mea , ool a d o rism sho ld s re g he
he bala ce of pa me s (a d foreig e - cha ge), hile a combi a io of rba isa- io , agric l re a d la d reform, small b si-
ess de elopme a d job crea io , sho ld s im la e eco omic gro h i or her Namibia .
Agai s a rba comple of 250 000 o 300 000 people i O ambola d, a d abo
100 000 o 120 000 alo g he coas (Wal is Ba -S akopm d-Ara dis), he Wi dhoek- Rehobo h comple co ld easil gro b
100 000 i o a ci of 350 000 o er he e ear .
The mi i g sec or has a pla i g hori o of 10 o 15 ears . Wi h he de elopme of
he Koedoe gas field, cer ai e diamo d fields a d a series of mi eral deposi s i he ce ral area of Namibia, mi i g sho ld i
he lo g- erm probabl re ai a 30% share of he GDP . A par ial go er me sharehold- i g i he major mi es sho ld o hi der hese de elopme s . Similarl , i ma be e pec ed ha a fle ible la d reform polic (aimed a der- ilised farms a d he pri-
a isi g of ribal la d), ill s im la e he agric l ral sec or . The f r her "Namibia i- sa io " of he commercial a d fi a cial ser- ice sec ors ca , if se si i el ackled, s im - la e domes ic gro h - i ho hereb c i g all ies i h SA .
Of co rse, b cha gi g hese ass mp io s
a f dame all differe f re ca be
ske ched . The basic ideas derl i g he abo e sce ario sho ld ho e er be clear : i h i depe de ce dra i g ear, i also becomes clearer i Namibia ha a cha geo er of po er lea es limi ed scope for drama ic s r c ral cha ges or reform - especiall if
o e does o a o r high risks . ⊈
FINANCIAL MAIL FEBRUARY 3 1989
THERE is a ar i he so h of Namibia . I is a ar agai s po er , dro gh a d repressio .
Dr a d desola e, he o s of he so h are s rro ded b e dless s re - ches of i hospi able scr b la ds .
Wa er is a l r a d he rock-hard ri erbeds co ai
ohi g b sa d, s o es a d hor rees .
Po er is rife - espe- ciall i he black o ships a d ghe os hich are i e i abl si a ed o side he o s, a a from he p blic e e .
O e s ch ghe o is a he so her o of Rehobo h, here ho sa ds of people li e i o e of he mos r - do sq a er camps i he co r .
Reside s refer o i as
"Blikkiesdorp" (Ti Dorp) . Theabjec po er of he i habi a s is i idl reflec ed i heir ho si g .
H dreds of sha ies, barel capable of i h- s a di g a s ro g i d, lie spra led across se eral hec ares of barre , sa d- co ered gro d . The are made from rs ed car doors, discarded shee s of corr - ga ed iro a d fla e ed i s . Shreds of plas ic are edged i o he holes . E ire homes are held oge her b pieces of ire, ails a d s ri g . Half- aked childre pla be ee he shacks . Chicke s a d s ar i g dogs a der hro gh he camp i a
co s a search for
somehi g o ea .
The lack of emplo me is made ob io s b he mber of me ho ca be fo d si i g der rees or sleepi g i side heir shacks o a da of he eek.
Ma of he ome ,
mo hers a d o g girls, are emplo ed as domes ic ser a s a he homes of he ealhier Ba er people ho li e i he o of Rehobo h - less ha o e kilome re
from he camp .
The orkers are badl paid, b for mos i is heir
o l so rce of i come .
I a area here
empera res freq e l reach 40 degrees Celsi s, he reside s of Blikkiesdorp are for a e o be pro ided i h some shade from he spreadi g rees hich gro i he camp.
B he rees are a blessi g i disg ise . K o as cameeldori g, hese rees
ha e bee declared a pro ec ed species b he Rehoboh go er me .
This mea s ha reside s do o ha e eas access o a s ppl of fire ood.
There is o elec rici i he sq a er camp, a d people ha e o cook o er ope fires a d spe d m ch of heir ime rekki g lo g dis a ces o fi d ood.
Those li i g i he camp are o req ired o pa re for heir sha ies, b he Rehobo hgo er me i sis s ha sq a ers m s erec heir
"ho ses" i ea orderl ro s .
Se eralof he i habi a s are re ice a d bi er he asked abo heir si a io .
The mo her of he
Kharases famil , hich li es i he camp, sa s i is a e er -da s r ggle o make e ds mee .
O l o e of her childre a e ds school, hile o s a a home beca se of lack of mo e . The o her o
ork i Wi dhoek .
Her h sba d is em- plo ed, a d he famil li es off her i come as a domes ic ser a .
"I ork e er da i a
Ba er famil 's ho se, a d for ha I ge R30 a mo h . I ha e a famil o feed a d
here are clohes o b . If
ha 's ha I ge paid he
ha 's ha I m s ake .
There is o choice," said Mrs
Kharases .
Walki g do a sad
road be ee he ma e of
sha ies are o schoolgirls
ho pose for a pho ograph
a d a s er some q es io s .
La re sia Cloe e, 16 a d
doi g S a dard Fi e a a
a io al ed ca io school i
Rehobo h, li es i h her a
i a brick ho se b il o he
edge of a field hich
separa es he poor from he
er poor . The pa R40 a
mo h for re .
She sa s ha he are a
famil of 10 childre .
. Her frie d, A a Marie
Skr er, is also 16 a d sa s
her moher mai ai s he
famil , b does ' ge m ch
orki g for he .Ras ers.
A a belie es ha he ar
bei g fo gh i he or h is
be ee he "soldiers" ho
are pro ec i g he people of Namibia a d "foreig ers"
hom she labels " erro-
ris s" . She o ld o like o
li e i he or h as she is
"afraid of he ar" .
O he eas er side of he
camp, i a i iro a d
ood co s r cio hich a
fas gla ce appears deser ed,
is 24- ear-old Salmo
A aseb.
Li i g i h bo h his
pare s i a shack hardl big
e o gh for o e perso ,
Salmo ells of he hardships
of life i Blikki sdorp . His
pare s are emplo ed a d
he oo has s opped orki g
o s rro di g farms.
li e
r
"I orked ma ho rs
e er da a d o l go R35 a
mo h . I ha e o fi d a job ha pa s more mo e . There
are hree of s ha ha e o
s r i e," he sa s .
He is ha kf l ha he does o ha e childre .
Pare s a d childre i
o her " o ships" a d
sq a er camps hro gho
so her Namibia ell he
same ragic s or
idespread po er , a lack of
emplo me , errible li i g
co di io s a d poor ages .
A spokesma for he
Rehobo h go er me sa s
ha here are aro d 400
families s a i g i he
sq a er camp . This fig re
co ld, ho e er, be m ch
higher. I almos e er case,
a famil co sis s of be ee
fi e a d 10 people.
The o l m icipal ser ice
pro ided b he Rehobo h
go erme is a er . Taps
are sca ered hro gho he
camp, a d here is o e
comm al ap for ro ghl
e er fi e or si ho ses .
The sq a ers are o
charged for he plo s o
hich he b ild heir
shacks, b he spokesma
said he go er me as
co sideri g chargi g people
R300 o b heir o plo s
i he f re .
The go er me is also
co sideri g se i g p a
sq a ers' commi ee, so ha
"ma ers ca be addressed
more easil " .
I erms of he Rehobo h
Self-Go er me Ac , a -
bod li i g i Rehobo h is
he respo sibili of ha
go er me .
The Ras ers pa heir a es
o he Rehobo h go er me .