RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
2.5 Selection of Subjects .1 Sampling Frame .1 Sampling Frame
The selection of the housing estates in the study was based on the method of establishing the estates, as a public or private actor/partner initiated estate. The study identified estate typologies based on the neighbourhoods of Lagos accros the development axis shown in figure 2.6. However, the choice of Lagos reflects the following:
(i)It represents the socio-cultural diversity of Nigeria in one city.
(ii)It represents the historic experience of housing development in Nigeria (pre-colonial to post colonial).
(iii)It represents the complexity of urbanization (as a mega-city).
(iv)It represents the dynamics of an emerging economy in a Third world country.
Table 2.3 The authentic census: Lagos State Social Security Exercise and Estimated Population figure by Sex and Local government area.
Local Government Male Female Total
Agege 564,239 468,825 1,033,064
Ajeromi-Ifelodun 723,644 711,651 1,435,295
Alimosho 1,099,656 947,370 2,047,026
Amuwo Odofin 301,012 223,959 524,971
Apapa 264,728 257,656 522,384
Badagry 187,427 192,993 380,420
Epe 153,360 170,274 323,634
Eti-Osa 460,124 523,391 983,515
Ibeju-Lekki 49,613 49,927 99,540
Ifako-Ijaiye 380,112 364,211 744,323
Ikeja 328,778 319,942 648,720
Ikorodu 364,207 324,838 689,045
Kosofe 527,539 407,075 934,614
Lagos-Island 461,830 398,019 859,849
Lagos-Mainland 326,433 303,036 629,469
Mushin 684,176 637,341 1,321,517
Ojo 507,693 433,830 941,523
Oshodi-Isolo 514,857 619,691 1,134,548
Somolu 517,210 507,913 1,025,123
Surulere 698,403 575,959 1,274,362
STATE TOTAL 9,115,041 8,437,901 17,552,942
SOURCE: Lagos Government State: 2006 Note: Selection of two LGA’s from twenty LGA’s; which represents 10% in the two direction of rapid growth of residential development in the city.
2.5 Selection of Subjects
The following stakeholder based category sample frames were selected, among which are two informant groups:
1. The households
Households studied were occupants of existing housing estates within metropolitan Lagos.
This is to understand the correlation between choice of housing and the housing delivery systems among households. Four housing estate initiation typologies identified from the literature review of this work defined the basis for the selection of samples. These four housing estate typologies represent a cross-section of all existing estates in Lagos based on the method of public sectors involvement in the initiation. The estate typologies are; private estate, public estate, public-corporate estate and public-private estate (PPP). This is succinct to the process function and the housing process as identified in the literature.
Therefore, from the currently identified estates in Lagos by this research (since no single government agency or record could establish this data) there were forty-one (41) medium- income housing estates of various sizes. This comprised of eleven (11) public estates, thirteen (13) Private estates, twelve (12) public-corporate estates, and five (5) PPP estates. (Out of which only one known PPP estate was completed as at May 2010). From this sample frame obtained, the samples of respondents were selected by random sampling technique. These figures represent one estate in every ten estates in existence (that is 1/10th) for each of the four- estate category based on the available listing and stratified by the age of the estate.
The selected housing estate typology listed below is alongside the actual name of the developed project.
i. Public estate, Abraham adesanya estate,lekki-epe axis.
ii. Private estate,Crown estate,lekki-epe axis.
iii. Public-corporate estate,Raji-rasaki esate,badagry axis.
iv. Public-private partnership estate,Elegant court,lekki-epe axis
2. The Housing development actors/partners
The sample frame is drawn from a population of 46 members of Real Estate Developers association of Nigeria (REDAN) in Lagos as extracted from the National list. From this sample frame, housing development actors/partners were selected by using purposive/ judgmental sampling technique to choose respondents.
3. Housing development experts
The sample frame was drawn randomly from a purposive selection of respondents in the following categories;
- Academics (university of Lagos), three professors in the faculty of environmental sciences, -Lagos state Ministry of Housing, (three director level employees):
-Financial institutions (senior management level employees)
-Association of Professional Bodies of Nigeria, (APBN): This comprised of a professional list of 12 professional bodies and their chapter members.
A sample frame was drawn from a population of 220 decision makers and professionals with direct influence on the delivery of housing whose institutional opinion matters in the housing delivery system of Lagos (notionally and technically).
2.5.2 Sampling Technique
Random sampling technique was used to obtain the sample of household respondents by selecting every fourth housing unit in the sample frame of each of the four-typology housimg estate. Random sampling is widely used to ensure same probability/chance of selection within a given sample frame( Asika,1991).
The respondents from housing development actors/partners were selected by Purposive/
judgmental sampling technique. The sampling frame was obtained from a national list of REDAN members who have executed housing estates that fit at least one of the four-estate establishment criteria within the last 10 years and have at least 50 single-family housing units in the particular estate. This is premised on the overall size of REDAN member developed estates as observed from the housing policy document (FGN, 2003).
The housing experts were drawn by using purposive/judgmental sampling technique to obtain the sample of respondents from a selection among chattered AEC professionals, academics (professors and doctoral degree holders), and director level and above employees of Lagos state government and management level employees of financial institutions located in Lagos.
The diversity group of this selection reinforces the cross-sectional perception of AEC professionals in public and private sectors. Their expert opinion forms the basis for standards and policy formulation.
2.6 Sample Sizes Household sample size:
The selected four-estate typologies have a combined 890 single-family dwelling units. By using systematic sampling technique, 10% (that is 89) of the total housing units formed the sample size. This comprised of the public housing-Abraham adesanya estate (572 housing units), private housing -crown estate (104 housing units), private corporate housing -raji rasaki estate (142 housing units), and public-private partnership housing - elegant court estate (72 housing units). Out of the 89 questionnaires administered to households’ respondents in all four housing estate typologies, only 80 households returned the completed questionnaire, indicating 89.8% response rates of the total samples obtained, see table 2.4.
Housing development actors/partners sample size:
They were drawn with specific criteria from the public and private sector with a sample frame of 46 REDAN members. The criteria was that each of the 46 REDAN (housing development actor/partner) must have built a private or public-private housing estate typology with more than 50 single-family dwelling units in the last 10years. The study identified 30 of such housing development actors/partners and 30 questionnaires were administered. Out of the 30 questionnaires administered to the housing development actors/partners, only 20 respondents indicating 66.6% response rates of the total samples obtained, see table 2.5.
Housing development experts sample size:
The study set out two criterions for selection of housing development experts. Respondents must have lived in Lagos for more than 20years and must own a house in Lagos through one of the four estate origination typologies and must be within the professions (APBN, AEC) or must have experienced the employment categories stated in the questionnaire.
A total of 300-housing experts were generated from the available listings of Association of Professional Bodies of Nigeria (APBN). 30 professionals from the built environment professions were purposively selected. Out of the 30 questionnaires administered to the housing development experts who were respondents, only 24 indicating 80% response rates of the total samples were obtained.
Based on the sample design as above, the sample sizes for three structured questionnaires were generated for the fieldwork as shown below.
Table 2.4 Sample sizes (households from four-estate typologies) Estate
typology
Location of estate
Nos. of single- family dwelling units(population of households)
Sample size (Household questionnaire)
Estate name
Public estate Lekki-epe axis
572 56.(1 missing) Abraham
adesanyan estate Private Lekki-epe
axis
104 11 Crown estate
Public- corporate
Badagry-axis 142 14 Raji rasaki
estate Public-private
Partnership
Lekki-epe axis
72 7 Elegant court
estate
890 88
Source: Author
Table 2.5 Sample size (housing development actors/partners and Housing experts) Informant group Population of
informant group
Sample size Response rate
Housing development actor/partner
46 30 20
Housing experts 300 30 24
Total 346 60 44 responses
Source: Author
2.6.1 The Households
The respondents were selected from the four types of housing estate representing the typology in terms of the initiation of the estate as either public, public-corporate, private, and public- private and in terms of the variations in the involvement of actors/partners. The disparity in the housing pricing from the high-income earners characterized by the expatriate community as previously described was excluded while the middle to low income earners as seen in the
larger Lagos society of mainly indigenes shall be the focus of this research. Hence, the selection of study areas in exclusion of luxury housing as seen in Ikoyi and Victoria island majorly. Therefore, household affordability for the middle-income is defined by the property price. This study obtained property prices from advertised property prices as follows; The Guardian newspaper,-property section, castles properties, The Punch property and listings of real estate agents who are experts and REDAN members housing sales flyers. This ranges from N45million ($300,000USD) to N5million ($33,333USD) within the ten-year period of this study of estate typologies (1999-2009).
This disparity is a reflection of the middle -income earner based on all existing financing arrangement available. A description of this group as earners of between N250,000 ($1,667USD) and N450,000($3,000USD) per annum by most researchers is misleading (Mabogunje,1999, Windapo, 2005, FOS,2004). This is the general government benchmark for stipulating target housing across the country. Available statistics gives an overview as follows:
-that about 74.3% of Lagos housing is rooming housing and 21.8% apartment flats type (smith,1978;LASG,2003;Mabogunje,1992;FOS,2004).
-that about 67.7% of urban Nigerians are non-poor from poverty headcount in percentage by sector (FOS, 2004).
-From poverty incidence statistics, relative poverty line by state shows that Lagos has 88.19%
non-poor; and per capita relative poverty for Lagos is 56.7% (FOS, 2004).Which is well above average and almost equal in percentage to rental tenure of Lagos estimated as 57% of housing stock (LASG,2003).
It is imperative to note that from LASG (2003) surveys out of the 21.8% apartment flats of housing stock in Lagos, which is essentially the middle-income group (since FOS (2004) surveys estimates 88.19% of Lagosians as non-poor), and 57% represents rental tenure 9LASG,2003), then remainder housing stock of 43% is owner occupied.
Therefore, 57% of all households in current rental tenure arrangements would want to own their homes and the plausibility of their accepting a three-bedroom house, flat or town house is high. This indicates that in every 10 households 5.7 could apply for ownership tenure (this does not represent or imply effective demand by households).
However, in the selection of households from four-estate typology, this data above informed the purposive/ judgmental technique and improved the credibility of the selection that six (6) in
every ten (10) household is a potential applicant for housing from among middle-income groups within a given sample size.
2.6.2 The Housing Development Actors/Partners
The selection of this group is from REDAN members by purposive/judgmental technique. The characteristics are as discussed earlier.
2.6.3 The Housing Development Experts
The housing experts are of two types: The public sector and private sector housing development experts. Their characteristics are as previously set out.