In addition, this task generates proposals for the development of Chinese large-scale logistics projects in South Africa. However, limited research focuses on the use of PSO–AHP methods in risk assessment of large-scale logistics projects.
List of Tables
List of Acronyms
Introduction
- Background and Significance
- Background
- Significance
- Research Objectives and Main Research Questions
- Main Methods of This Thesis
- Expected Contributions
- Thesis Content and Roadmap
- References
Based on the example of Hanjin Shipping9, this thesis is particularly interesting for the risk analysis of large logistics projects. 10. The thesis also creates proposals for the development of Chinese large-scale logistics projects in South Africa.
Literature Review on Risk and Risk Management of Logistics Projects
Risk Overview
- Definitions of Risk
- Types of Risk
Based on the definitions of risk, most scientists believe that risk is related to loss. In addition to the risk associated with some of the most common equipment failures during operations, some unexpected outcomes may be considered significant risks in operations; (3) Operational risks (Hofer et al., 2014; Song, 2003).
Risk Management in Logistics Projects
- Risk Identification of Logistics Projects
- Risk Assessment and Prevention of Logistics Projects
- Models of Risk Assessment
To further understand project risk, the risk of a single factor involved in the project's core objectives must be analyzed (Daugherty, 2011). In this thesis, the risk assessment of the logistics projects will also be treated according to the FCMM.
Summary
This definition of risks for large logistics projects is important for this thesis;17 it guides the fundamental analysis of models and proposals. Introducing risk types can help this thesis identify all potential risks when doing modeling analysis.
Supply chain management: It's a journey, not a destination. Journal of Supply Chain Management, 50, 8-20. Collaboration: the key to value creation in supply chain management. Supply Chain Management: An International Journal. Exploring Supply Chain Management Theory: Barriers and Facilitators to Integration. Journal of business logistics.
Methodology Background
How to quantitatively predict the effect of uncertainty on project risk is a major concern for managers (Michael et al., 2018; Whipple et al., 2010; Zarbakhshnia et al., 2018). All existing methods are based on the assumption that there are no resource constraints (Michael et al., 2018; Strauss and Corbin, 1998; Zarbakhshnia et al., 2018). Many studies (Denyer and Tranfield, 2009; Xu et al., 2018) solve it through the conventional optimization method; however, this method can.
Methodologies of Risk Identification
The remaining parts of this chapter focus on the introduction and detailed discussion of the two methods. This thesis mainly uses WBS method (Figure 3-1) which refers to the grouping of the elements in a project based on the purpose of deliverables. One of the main characteristics of large-scale logistics project is that they are built across different countries.
Methodologies of Risk Assessment
- Qualitative Models
- Subjective Evaluation Method
- Quantitative Models
- Fuzzy Comprehensive Measurement Method (FCMM) Model
- PSO Model
- PSO–AHP Model
On the second level, combined with the results of the overall risk assessment of the logistics projects, this thesis provides several suggestions for risk prevention for this kind of logistics projects. The rating matrix consistency problem is the core problem of the AHP method. The determination of the relative importance level according to the judgment can be defined as the next step.
Summary
The impact of e-business technologies on operational performance: The role of supply chain manufacturing information integration. Journal of Operations Management. Some ideas and guidelines for future IJPDLM authors. International Journal of Physical Distribution and Logistics Management, 43. A Structure, Conduct, and Performance Perspective on How Strategic Supply Chain Integration Affects Firm Performance. Journal of Supply Chain Management.
Risk Assessment Index System of A Logistics Project
Setting Principles of the Risk Assessment Index System
The indicators should reflect the main features, status and internal relationship of the projects, economic and social subsystems from different aspects (Liu et al., 2019). A large amount of statistical data is required to support the construction of the evaluation index system. That is, the indicators of the index system should satisfy the relative independence under the premise of the principle of integrity as much as possible (Gu and Yang, 2017).
Risk Assessment Index System
- Risk in the Large-Scale Logistics Project
- Logistics Enterprise Risk
- Logistics Environment Risk
- Risk Assessment Index System
The shareholders of the logistics company can influence the project activities, so protecting their rights makes sense. The investment activities of a logistics enterprise include the main business of the enterprise and other project operations. The investment risk of the logistics company is determined according to the rate of return of the project.
Summary
An indexation system must be adjusted in good time to be able to respond to changes in variants in the real situation. Based on this classification, the risk assessment index system via the WBS method is further designed in this chapter, which is used for the other analysis. Based on the index system and methods introduced, this thesis uses Hanjin Shipping and Shandong New Jiahong Company as new cases to show how risk assessment is performed in the context of logistics projects in Chapter 6.
By applying the WBS method, this chapter clarifies the nature of the various risk components and their interrelationships, as well as the relationship between the risk and the environment, thereby reducing the uncertainty in the process of identifying the project risk. In Chapter 5, based on the risk index system built here, this thesis treats each factor fundamentally and in more detail, assesses the risk degree of each factor in logistics projects, and assesses the risk degree of the logistics projects via the fuzzy comprehensive measurement method (FCMM). The Research of Overall Effect Evaluation Index System of New Energy Combined Power Project.2018 China International Conference on Electricity Distribution.
Risk Evaluation Based on the Risk Index System
Details of FCMM Model Steps
The risk assessment is arranged according to the level of risk from weak to strong, whereby we can use V = V1,V2,···,Vm as an assessment set. Risk weights can be determined using the AHP valuation method discussed in Chapter 3. Assume that there is a set U = U1,U2,···,Un to be evaluated, where U may be a risk factor and n may be a total of factors.
Details of PSO Model Steps
The location information is the entire search range, and the speed and position are initialized randomly in the speed range and search range. 2018), this thesis assumes that the population size of the particle is N (relative to the logistics project, it represents the number of risk factors). Sl represents the position of the particle of N), vl represents the velocity and fl represents the fitted value. In each iteration of a simulation in PSO, the particle extremum tracks individual pbestl(t) (the best position of the particle in the flight process) and the global extremum gbestl(t) (the best position of the particle swarm in the flight process) is updated after the initial position and speed is randomly generated.
Details of PSO–AHP Model Steps
Since the overall comprehensive evaluation uses numerous indicators, it is difficult to directly use the 1–9 scaling method to determine the importance of the two elements, as it is sometimes not easy to perform the calculation with 9 evaluation levels (Xu et al. al., 2018 ). 40The consistency of the rating matrix is important and requires ratings to be transitive, meaning that if A is better than B, and B is better than C, then A must be better than C (Wang et al., 2014). If the matrix A is consistent and assumes λ to be the largest eigenvalue of A, then the normalization vector of λ requires weights (Wang et al., 2014).
Numerical Examples 42
- Results of Fuzzy Comprehensive Measurement Method
- Results of PSO–AHP Algorithm
- Which One is Better?
For the factors of B, C, D, E, and F layers, the elements of the above layer are compared with each other according to the criteria. Referring to the solution process of the PSO-AHP model in section 5.3, the weight value and the consistency index function value of the given assessment matrix are programmed to be solved (see code in Appendix 1) and the results are shown in the following table. The results show that both methods indicate that the total risk of the project is average, which is about 0.5.
Summary
2011) argued that PSO-AHP has several advantages, such as enabling the development of risk information management, supporting effective decision-making for risk management, establishing practical risk organization for organizations, and providing valuable analysis data for future estimation. 2012) argued that in the field of risk evaluation, given the uncertainty of risk factors, an evaluation of the level of risk via exact quantitative methods is difficult, and therefore the use of the FCMM method to change a qualitative question into a quantitatively meaningful one. (Chen, 1984; Cheng and Tao, 2010; Xie et al., 2017). The FCMM method has been a popular model in terms of risk evaluation due to this factor (Yazdani et al., 2014). Thus, the following chapter uses both methods to perform the risk assessment for a real problem and then provides further comparison between these two methods (See footnote 34).
Fuzzy Comprehensive Assessment of Drought Vulnerability Based on Analytical Hierarchy Process—An Empirical Study from Xiaogan City in Hubei Province. Proceedings of Agricultural and Agricultural Science. Risk assessment of China's overseas oil refining investment using a comprehensive fuzzy-gray evaluation method. Stability. Health, Safety and Environmental Performance Evaluation System Based on Expert Weights and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation.Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries.
Risk Evaluation and Prevention: Case Studies
Necessity of Risk Evaluation and Prevention
Hanjin urgently needs reasonable risk evaluation and risk prevention mechanisms to address the various risks faced by the logistics industry. Taking the logistics project under project risk evaluation as the research objective and the risk prevention and control mechanism as the main topic, this chapter establishes the necessity and importance of the logistics project management mode by analyzing the current situation and development trend of the logistics industry. The chapter verifies the appropriateness of the theoretical research direction by analyzing the logistics control system of Korea Hanjin Marine Logistics Co., Ltd.
Risk Evaluation: Case Study of Hanjin Shipping
- Hanjin Shipping Bankruptcy
- Weak Risk Control Made Hanjin Collapse
- Risk Evaluation of Hanjin Shipping
Experts in the logistics industry believe that the main reasons for Hanjin Shipping's bankruptcy are as follows (Huang et al., 2011;. a) Frequent changes of the president: Hanjin Shipping was founded by Cho Jung-Hoon. Due to the increased competition in the industry, Hanjin's logistic probability of market risk is P4 level (common). The largest value of bjmaxin bj, corresponding to the level of Vjis the risk level of the company based on the principle of maximum membership.
Risk Control Mechanisms
Risk Factor Prediction
Risk Control Program Production
Conduct reflections and experiences to improve quality and skills Interpret political and normative research forms and contexts Improve technology and methods for conducting public relations and.
Risk prevention and control operations
Therefore, the sooner the implementation of risk control operations, the more beneficial for enterprises to avoid risks and reduce losses.
Risk consequence handling
Network’ Risk Control Mechanism
- Risk Control Mechanisms: A Case Study
- Summary
- References
Through the work of the risk control management group, the company avoided one major degree of loss, two moderate losses and 10 minor degrees of loss. In this project, New Jiahong Company used project management ideas and the risk control mechanism, which transformed the pure risk into speculative risk and the company benefited from such actions. Evidence in management and organization science: compiling the field's full weight of scientific knowledge through syntheses. The Academy of Management Annals.
Risk Prevention in Logistics Projects: The Risk Index System
- Significance of Risk Prevention
- Six-dimensional Analysis of Risk Prevention
- Management Risk Prevention
- Technical Risk Prevention
- Operational Risk Prevention
- Market Risk Prevention
- Fiscal Risk Prevention
- Environmental Risk Prevention
- Summary
- References
Therefore, strategic risk management is an important issue that enterprises cannot avoid (Dalkey and Helmer, 1963; Fawcett et al., 2012; Petticrew and Roberts, 2006). Many logistics enterprises face risks mainly caused by insufficient financing, because they generally ignore their small and medium shareholders (Boyson, 2014; Bradley, 2014; Camuffo et al., 2007; These methods are also necessary for increasing independent innovation capability and building an innovative country (Chang et al., 2015;.
