1950s and 1960s but is epitomised by the work of Walt Rostow who was an economic policy advisor to President Johnson of the USA. The title of his most infl uential work, Stages of Economic Growth: A Non-Communist Manifesto , published in 1960, indicates the political orientation of Rostow’s work: an sis of development that extended beyond the theoretical into a political manifesto to fi ght off the threat of communism or the ‘disease of transition’ as he referred to it. In Rostow’s view, the rationale for fi nancial aid for development should surpass the purely economic to include the political, that is, supporting non- communist elites, democracy and pluralism.
The work of Rostow was heavily infl uenced by the organic analogy of function-alism, that is, the idea that societies, like natural beings, mature through different stages of evolution driven by an internal dynamic. Rostow stresses that progres-sive stages of economic growth are the route to a more developed status, the ultimate state being that of the ‘Age of High Mass Consumption’. His theory emphasises development as being synonymous to modernity, following Western models of evolution through defi ned stages of economic growth as displayed in Figure 2.1 . This paradigm of development was framed by an optimistic approach to development, the general assumption being that the development problems of the less developed world would be solved quickly through national economic planning and the transfer of fi nance, technology and experience from the ‘West’
to the ‘Rest’ (Elliott, 1994; Mowforth and Munt, 2009; World Bank, 2000).
Rostow detailed the fi ve main stages of economic growth that he understood soci-eties would evolve through under optimum conditions to a fi nal age of mass consumption. In his modernisation model, Rostow suggested that rapid economic development could only occur if barriers to tradition and superstition could be overcome, and the values and social structures of traditional societies are changed (Harrison, 1992). In direct reference to organic analogy, Slattery (1992: 270) comments: ‘Just as we often talk of a child being immature, even retarded, when its mental development doesn’t match its physical growth, so we talk of underde-veloped even backward societies, of Third World countries held back by illit-eracy, ignorance and superstition.’ In Rostow’s progression such a change would involve the expansion of investment capital, entrepreneurial skills and technical knowledge. He further suggested that if such features are absent, possibly because of the conservative nature of tradition, they could be diffused from outside.
Constant to the theme of modernisation remains one of ‘Westernisation’ in which the structures of less developed countries become like those of the West, emulating their development patterns (Harrison, 1992). In this sense it can be argued that Rostow appears to justify colonialism (ibid.), on the basis that the European powers transferred elements of investment capital and technical knowledge to their colonies, albeit based upon the pursuit of their own national interest and economic benefi ts.
Figure 2.1 Rostow’s fi ve main stages of economic growth
STAGE ONE - TRADITIONAL SOCIETY
Pre-industrial , typically agricultural societies that are characterised by low economic output, ancient technology and poor communications. The culture is hierarchical with little social mobility and values orientate towards the fatalistic.
STAGE THREE - THE TAKE OFF Industrialisation replaces agriculture as the driving force of the economy.
This happens through new technol-ogy or the influence of the entrepre-neurial class who prioritise moderni-sation of the economy. Agriculture also becomes commercialised with a growth in productivity. The influence of the market leads to new political, social and economic structures.
Rural to urban population drift takes place.
STAGE TWO - PRECONDITIONS FOR TAKE OFF
New ideas favouring economic progress arise, leading to the idea of economic change through increased trade and the establishment of infant industries. A new political elite emerges, such as the entrepreneurial bourgeoisie of the Industrial Revolution to challenge the power of the landed classes. Infrastructure is developed to facilitate economic growth
STAGE FOUR - THE DRIVE TO MATURITY Over a period of approximately 40 years, the country builds on its progress. Investment grows, 10-20 per cent of the national income is invested in industry, technology spreads to all parts of the economy, and the economy becomes a part of the international system . There is a move away from heavy industry, as what is produced now becomes a matter of choice rather than necessity.
STAGE FIVE - THE AGE OF MASS CONSUMPTION
The economy matures, the population can enjoy the benefits of mass consumption , a high standard of material living and , if it wants, a welfare state. According to Rostow, in the United States this stage was symbolised by the mass production of the motor car. The balance in the economy progressively shifts to a service economy vis-a.-vis an industrial one.
Given its capitalist emphasis and Western ethnocentrism, unsurprisingly modern-isation theory has received substantial political and economic criticisms. These include that the unidirectional path of development suggested in Rostow’s model is incorrect, as later developing countries can learn from the West and through borrowing Western skills, technology and expertise subsequently leap a stage or two. For example, a LDC may plan to use tourism as primary economic driver for development as a replacement or accompaniment to heavy industry. Modernisa-tion theory has also been criticised for its cultural superiority and the assumpModernisa-tion that traditional values are not compatible with modernity. A signifi cant further criticism came later upon environmental grounds, that if the developing countries industrialise using natural resources as the same way in the West, the strain on the world’s natural resources would be insupportable.
A signifi cant change in the world economy since Rostow constructed his fi ve main stages of growth has been the growth in the global service industries in which tourism plays a signifi cant part. Tourism is embedded into the contempo-rary age of mass consumption of developed countries, which presents opportuni-ties for LDCs with the natural and cultural resources to develop an international tourism industry. A consideration of tourism for development is also symbolic of how economic opportunities shift with time, as in the period when Rostow was writing the idea of considering tourism as a form of international trade and being used as a means to modernise economies was improbable.