poverty. Threats to the supply of natural resources, including land and water heighten the likelihood for potential social unrest and for political confl ict. There is a propensity for environmental refugees and mass migration in the future with accompanying political and economic issues of immigration that have become common in many developed countries.
The threats to the poor from environmental risk and the loss of ecosystem services is summarised in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment authored by Duralappah (2004). Whilst substantial net gains in economic development and human well- being have been made since the middle of the twentieth century, these gains have been achieved at growing costs in the form of the degradation of many ecosystem services and a largely irreversible loss of biodiversity with an accompanying exacerbation of poverty. These problems, unless addressed, will substantially diminish the benefi ts that future generations obtain from ecosystems. The assessment also anticipates that the degradation of ecosystem services could act as a barrier to achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MGDs).
CLIMATE CHANGE AND THREATS TO THE TOURISM–POVERTY
investment in infrastructure improvements, including energy and transport, and in health and education provision, all of which represent vital developments for poverty reduction.
According to the WTO (2003), specifi c climate threats relevant to the tourism industry include: that sea- levels will rise threatening many coastal areas and small islands; temperature rises will change precipitation patterns, so water supply problems will be exacerbated; and climate change will increase the magnitude, frequency and risk of extreme climatic events including tropical storms and sea surges. More specifi cally it is probable that as sea- levels begin to rise there will be an increase in beach and coast erosion, a higher likelihood of coastal fl ooding, a loss of coastal ecosystems and a total submersion of some low- lying islands and coastal plains. The siting of much tourism infrastructure along the coasts of regions and islands magnifi es the potential risk from sea- level rises and storms. The possible effects of climate change on a typical small island developing state (SID) is exemplifi ed through Barbados in the Caribbean. Based on a study of the south and west coasts of the island to estimate the effects of a one metre rise in sea- level and a storm surge generated by a Category 3 hurricane, the Caribbean Planning for Adaptation to Climate Change (CPACC) agency commented that the: ‘result is astonishing since most of the present day development, including the tourism infrastructure, is located within this inundation zone’ (CPACC, 1999: 3, cited in Belle and Bramwell, 2005). A further potential consequence of a rise in sea- level is the intrusion of saline water into the fresh water aquifers that Barbados is dependent upon for water. Potential rises in sea- levels pose real threats to the tourism industries of low- lying islands such as the Maldives as highlighted in Box 3.5 .
BOX 3.5 CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE MALDIVES
The Maldives are situated in the Indian Ocean and consist of 1,196 islands, many below an altitude of two metres, supporting a population of over 300,000. The natural beauty of the islands has made them into an attractive tourism destination, with tourism’s 31.3 per cent contribution to GDP in 2011 emphasising the economy’s heavy dependence upon it (WTTC, 2012). However, as a consequence of rising ocean levels as an outcome of climate change, most of the country will be fl ooded during the next 50 to 100 years (IPCC, 2007b).
The problems of the islands have been accentuated as a conse-quence of the quarrying and dredging of coral offshore for its use as
aggregate in the construction of hotels, roads and airports. Further damage to coral reefs caused by bleaching and pollutants has increased vulnerability and consequently has adversely affected their important function of protection against natural hazards, including tidal surges and beach erosion.
Ongoing annual rises in ocean levels have been recorded which threatens the continuing inhabitation of the islands in the long term.
The implications for the tourism industry are also grave as the loss of beaches, the primary attraction for 70 per cent of tourists, would severely affect the local economy and 45 per cent of tourist resorts have already reported concerns about beach erosion (The Government of Madives, 2009). In an attempt to mitigate and adapt to the negative impacts of climate change on the Maldives, the Government of Maldives, the European Union (EU) and the World Bank signed a Memorandum of Understanding and established a Climate Change Trust Fund with a contribution of US$8.8 million from the EU which will aim at building resilience to climate change through funding priority projects (World Bank, 2010). Former President Nasheed (2008–12) was pro- active in raising awareness and taking actions to mitigate climate change, creating and hosting the fi rst meeting of the Climate Vulnerable Forum, attended by 11 poor nations threatened by climate change. In 2009, President Nasheed also announced that the Maldives would become entirely carbon- neutral by 2020 but following his resignation this target is uncertain.
Source: after The Government of Maldives, 2009;
World Bank, 2010; WTTC, 2012
Besides their effect on the tourism industry, extreme weather conditions and natural disasters can have a signifi cant impact on the broad economy, especially in small states where a single event can affect a large proportion of the country.
Stressing the vulnerability of SIDS as a consequence of their geography UNCTAD (1983: 33, cited in Crowards, 2000) comment: ‘Island developing economies are often particularly exposed to natural hazards for fundamental reasons of geog-raphy. Given the small size of individual islands and of island developing countries generally, the often overwhelming proportional impact of disasters in these coun-tries justifi es special concern by the international community.’ A lack of economic diversifi cation may also compound the threat from natural disasters in SIDS. The demand for tourism is highly reliant on a perception that destinations are safe
places with a minimum degree of risk. Alongside outbreaks of wars, terrorism, civil unrest and high levels of criminality, natural disasters present a signifi cant perceived threat to stability and safety. Whilst a downturn in tourism demand may prove to be short term, that is, two to three years, the consequences on the poor may be dramatic if livelihood opportunities provided through tourism are lost. The potential for economic hardship as a consequence of a downturn in tourism demand is particularly accentuated where there exists a high dependence upon it.
A further consideration of climate change’s effect on tourism is how it may alter the spatial geography of tourism fl ows. The two most signifi cant fl ows of tourism are from northern Europe to the Mediterranean and North America to the Caribbean accounting for tens of millions of tourists. Similar to the Mediterranean, tourism in the Caribbean islands is dependent upon the consistency of the qualities of climate and the beach, with its main market from North America escaping the cold winter. However, parts of the USA may become warmer, making them more attractive to vacation in, whilst rising sea- levels may threaten some of the Caribbean islands, damaging beaches and causing infrastructure damage (WTO, 2003). A predicted increased need for air- conditioning will also place pressure on the island’s water and energy resources. All these developments would have profound implications for the poor of the Caribbean islands if the tourism industry is adversely affected by climate change.
The impact of climate change may also be felt on special interest tourism beside mainstream mass tourism. For example, the negative impact of climate change and human behaviour on coral reefs was discussed earlier in the chapter. It is the biodiversity of the reefs that makes them into natural attractions for tourism, with many reefs being located in developing countries.
The destruction of reefs because of climate change, apart from removing their important ecosystem functions, would result in the loss of income and livelihood options not only from mainstream tourism but also niche markets such as diving.
Other types of tourism, also dependent on a stable climatic and ecosystems – for example, wildlife and other types of ecotourism – could also be threatened by ecosystem changes and the loss of biodiversity. Whilst it is extremely diffi cult to forecast with accuracy the effects of climate change, even more so their impacts on tourism, an attempt to provide an overview of the likely effects across the continents housing the greatest numbers of the world’s poor is given in Box 3.6 . The fruition of these changes will ultimately depend upon the degree and depth of climate change that actually occurs but the fi ndings suggest that whilst the urgency of the challenge of how to use tourism for poverty reduction may require short- tem responses, long- term strategies will need to consider best prac-tices for mitigation and adaptation if tourism is to provide a sustainable tool for poverty reduction.
BOX 3.6 IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE FOR NATURAL RESOURCES USED FOR TOURISM IN LATIN AMERICA, AFRICA AND ASIA
Continent Threatened Natural Resources
Impact
Latin America
Biodiversity of fresh-water systems (home to 1,500 species of animals)
Highly sensitive to climate change
Sea- level rises Land loss and threat to coastal and island tourism infrastructure
Mountain regions, e.g. Andes
Reduced snowfall and a gradual disappearance of snow and ice with a consequent threat to the longevity of the activity- based tourism market Africa Wildlife and
ecosys-tems, especially in East Africa, including Kenya and Tanzania
Loss of biodiversity of fauna and fl ora that threatens ecosystems functions and the survival of wildlife, with subsequent negative
economic impacts on the wild-life tourism market
Increased water shortages, river fl ow changes, reduced water run- off and drying up of reservoirs
Decline in water- based activi-ties; reduced water discharge may make natural attractions such as the Victoria Falls less attractive; the environ-mental quality and economic and business potential of many natural lakeside resorts would diminish
Coastal zones and marine ecosystems (especially in Kenya and Tanzania)
Decline in marine- based tourism and the attraction of natural resources, e.g. coral reefs
Asia World’s highest mountain range the Himalayas
Reduced snow and ice; threat to ecosystems and loss of attractiveness; possible decline in the activity- based tourism market
World’s second biggest rain forest complex
Loss of biodiversity and attractiveness to tourists
Over half of the world’s share of coral reefs; Indonesia and Malaysia rank amongst the top countries for their biodiversity
Vulnerability of coral reefs to
‘bleaching’ caused by higher sea temperatures; loss of sand beaches in south- east Asia from sea- level rises all threaten tourism demand
Source: based on La Trobe, 2002; IPCC, 2007b