Our dependency on ecosystem services discussed in the last section means any challenges to their functioning threaten our own well- being. The poor are placed particularly at risk from negative environmental change given their limited resources to adapt to change. Crises in climate and loss of biodiversity particularly threaten the ecosystem services upon which the poor depend, including the provi-sion of water, food, building materials and fuel, meaning they may suffer dispro-portionately. The reliance of the poor upon their surroundings is underlined by the Commission for Africa (2005: 248) who comment: ‘In surveys, poor people consistently highlight the importance of the environment to well- being in terms of health, security, clean water, sanitation, safe energy, safe housing, food security and access to agricultural inputs.’ Of major consequence for the poor is the process of global warming and resultant climate change, which may simultaneously diminish the qualities of the natural resource base and reinforce conditions of poverty. Given the reliance of many of the world’s poor on natural resources and climate- sensitive industries, especially agriculture, fi shing and also increasingly tourism, combined with their inhabiting of marginal land areas, there is signifi cant future uncertainty and threat posed to their livelihoods by climate change.
Whilst a limited amount of contention may still exist over the extent to which global warming is a consequence of human activity or a natural occurrence, the real debate has now shifted to whose responsibility it is to deal with its causes and mitigate its impacts. Global warming models predict that increasing global temperatures are likely to impact upon many atmospheric parameters, including precipitation and wind velocity, leading to more frequent extreme weather events, including storms, heavy rainfall, cyclones and drought (UNEP, 1999). The
number of extreme weather events have quadrupled since the 1950s, and the frequency of high level hurricanes and typhoons has doubled since the 1950s (De Costa, 2001). As the effects of Hurricane Katrina on New Orleans in 2005 demon-strated, with fl ooding causing a mass evacuation of the city and thousands becoming homeless, even the most advanced economy in the world is vulnerable to the power of nature. Combined with rising sea levels and coastal erosion, there is a real threat from ‘natural’ or climatic disasters to tourism. The poor are also highly vulnerable to a rise in extreme weather events as a consequence of their lack of resources to adapt to natural disasters. They also live in marginal areas that are subject to fl ooding and landslides and live in less robust shelter than the non- poor. The frequency of hurricanes and typhoons is also at its highest in the tropics, the geographical area between which latitudes the majority of the world’s poor are found as shown in Figure 1.1 .
The causes of global warming and climate change are now well charted and it is not the intention to re- iterate them in detail in this text, as its focus rests on the interaction of climate change with poverty. However, the causes of climate change are not without considerable political and economic controversy that have context in the wider debate about development. The chief sources of the Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions that cause global warming have come from the developed countries, especially North America and Europe. Since 1850, North America and Europe have produced around 70 per cent of all the world’s GHG emissions due to energy production (Stern Report, 2006), although this situation is changing with the growth of China and India as global economic powers.
Unsurprisingly, this has led to political contention over the rights and hegemony of the developed world to dictate controls over GHG emissions for developing countries as they attempt to develop their own economies to similar levels of those enjoyed in the West.
The practice of unsustainable consumption endemic to developed countries, the undervaluing of the common pool of goods and services provided by the environ-ment leading to a propensity for over consumption and over pollution, and poor and ineffective governance that leads to environmental neglect, all contribute to a deteriorating global environmental quality that also has local consequences (DFID, 1999). The failure of the market system to adequately accommodate nega-tive environmental externalities may push costs onto the most vulnerable. For example, the zero costs for airlines and tourists of depositing emissions from air travel into the atmosphere that contribute to global warming has potential nega-tive consequences for the poor. The emissions contribute to climate change, resulting in rises in ocean levels that threaten communities inhabiting low- lying areas; for example, in the Pacifi c Isles and fl ood plains of Bangladesh. The latter is particularly vulnerable to climate change given its low- lying coastline, high
population density and economic dependence on agriculture. A one metre rise in sea- level could result in more than a fi fth of Bangladesh being under water, a possibility by the end of this century (Stern Report, 2006).
The progressive changes in climatic zones as a consequence of global warming, shifts in precipitation patterns, increases in the magnitude and frequency of extreme weather events including droughts, fl oods and storms, and accompanying sea level rises, all pose signifi cant threats to the livelihoods of the poor, not least because of their economic dependency on agriculture. The consequences of natural disasters on the poor are also not solely limited to the short term, as the need to raise capital in periods of stress may lead the poor to sell assets they require for their livelihoods and long- term survival, including land, farming implements and bicycles. Falling farm incomes as a consequence of climate change may increase levels of poverty and force families to use any savings just to survive. The subsequent loss of food security and purchasing power will increase the likelihood of absolute poverty.
This low adaptive capacity to change is a consequence of a lack of resources and opportunities, including income, a lack of savings, low education levels, lack of land tenure and safety nets; for example, government support. The IPCC (2007a) recognises that it is in developing countries that people are most likely to suffer from the negative impacts of climate change as a conse-quence of both the economic importance of climate- sensitive sectors and their limited human, institutional and fi nancial capacities to respond to the direct and indirect effects of climate change. Increased rates of illness and death are also predicted in Least Developed Countries whilst at a macro- economic level climate change will reduce government revenues and raise spending needs as climate- sensitive industries becomes less competitive and unemployment rises (Stern Report, 2006).
The vulnerability of the poor to climate change is also compounded by geograph-ical location. The geographgeograph-ical areas that are most vulnerable to sea- level rises are found within the tropics, including the west coast of Africa, the north and eastern coasts of South America, south and south- east Asia; and small island states in the Caribbean, Pacifi c and Indian Ocean (IPCC, 2001). Low- lying coastal areas may also suffer a loss of agricultural land from sea- level rises and accompanying salinisation, whilst declining fi sh stocks as a consequence of climate change may threaten food security. It is also countries in the tropical and subtropical regions that are particularly vulnerable to a decrease in crop yields, threatening food secu-rity and exacerbating hunger (IPCC, 2001). Particularly at risk are countries in subSaharan Africa, where the threat of increased water scarcity poses a signifi -cant threat to agricultural production. Nor is it just the risk posed to agriculture and food security from climate change that has the potential to spread and deepen
poverty. Threats to the supply of natural resources, including land and water heighten the likelihood for potential social unrest and for political confl ict. There is a propensity for environmental refugees and mass migration in the future with accompanying political and economic issues of immigration that have become common in many developed countries.
The threats to the poor from environmental risk and the loss of ecosystem services is summarised in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment authored by Duralappah (2004). Whilst substantial net gains in economic development and human well- being have been made since the middle of the twentieth century, these gains have been achieved at growing costs in the form of the degradation of many ecosystem services and a largely irreversible loss of biodiversity with an accompanying exacerbation of poverty. These problems, unless addressed, will substantially diminish the benefi ts that future generations obtain from ecosystems. The assessment also anticipates that the degradation of ecosystem services could act as a barrier to achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MGDs).