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Lampiran 1. Tabel Data Penelitian
Tahun PDRB PDRB1 SB POP KONS
1984 3.734.722 3.131.126 18.75 8.910.940 2.210,343.89 1985 3.886.495 3.734.722 20 9.059.353 2.263.474.40 1986 4.131.717 3.886.495 15 9.422.137 2.337.021.91 1987 4.492.442 4.131.717 15 9.613.909 2,428,680.66 1988 4.999.214 4,492,442 18.5 9.902.408 2.572.280.00 1989 5.478.875 4.999.214 18.58 10.115.860 2.668.540.00 1990 5.934.565 5.478.875 18.53 10.330.091 2.785.580.00 1991 6.364.634 5.934.565 22.76 10.256.000 2.943.900.00 1992 6.832.672 6.364.634 18.93 10.454.686 3.189.920.00 1993 18.215.459 6.832.672 14.2 10.537.796 9.136.440.00 1994 19.942.023 18.215.459 12.99 10.813.400 10.375.013.07 1995 21.753.805 19.942.023 16.28 10.847.195 10.766.529.37 1996 23.714.737 21.753.805 16.7 11.008.426 11.601.029.23 1997 25.065.405 23.714.737 15.74 11.158.403 12.746.178.00 1998 22.332.689 25.065.405 16.06 11.551.600 12.970.708.17 1999 22.910.086 22.332.689 17.62 11.566.023 13.585.145.04 2000 24.016.595 22.910.086 14.29 11.955.400 14.384.520.21 2001 71.636.930 24.016.595 17 11.506.808 15.116.130.01 2002 74.326.325 71.636.930 18.1 11.722.397 15.716.904.54 2003 78.805.609 74.326.325 17.15 11.847.075 45.131.870.00 2004 83.328.949 78.805.609 11.33 11.890.399 47.217.510.00 2005 87.897.790 83.328.949 8.75 12.123.360 50.139.160.00 2006 93.347.400 87.897.790 11.84 12.326.678 54.271.630.00 2007 99.792.270 93.347.400 10.83 12.643.499 59.655.860.00
Lampiran 2. Tabel Deskriptif Data KONS PDRB PDRB1 POP SB Mean 16925599 33872559 29845011 10898493 16.03875 Median 11183779 22043247 20847914 10927810 16.49000 Maximum 59655860 99792270 93347400 12643499 22.76000 Minimum 2210344. 3734722. 3131126. 8910940. 8.750000 Std.Dev. 18778044 34205051 31705154 1051429. 3.248698 Skewness 1.268744 0.840156 1.006781 -0.267771 -0.359055 Kurtosis 3.050268 2.024539 2.356182 2.075229 2.861354 Jarque-Bera 6.441369 3.774971 4.468932 1.142006 0.534905 Probability 0.039928 0.151452 0.107049 0.564958 0.765327 Sum Sum Sq.Dev.
4.06E+08 8.13E+08 7.16E+08 2.62E+08 384.9300 Sum
Sq.Dev.
8.11E+15 2.69E+16 2.31E+16 2.54E+13 242.7429 )bservation 24 24 24 24 24
Lampiran 3. Tabel Output
Dependent Variable: LOG(KONS) Method: Least Squares
Date: 02/17/10 Time: 09:42 Sample: 1984 2007
Included observations: 24
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -9.500454 19.33703 -0.491309 0.6288 LOG(PDRB) 0.432585 0.162776 2.657554 0.0155 LOG(PDRB1) 0.361541 0.171895 2.103260 0.0490 LOG(SB) -0.810907 0.255819 -3.169852 0.0050 LOG(POP) 0.897063 1.300064 0.690015 0.4985 R-squared 0.972585 Mean dependent var 16.04181 Adjusted R-squared 0.966813 S.D. dependent var 1.153077 S.E. of regression 0.210059 Akaike info criterion -0.099801 Sum squared resid 0.838374 Schwarz criterion 0.145627 Log likelihood 6.197612 F-statistic 168.5107 Durbin-Watson stat 2.182970 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Lampiran 4. Tabel Output Stationeritas Konsumsi Null Hypothesis: KONS has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on AIC, MAXLAG=2)
t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic 0.886087 0.9933 Test critical values: 1% level -3.752946
5% level -2.998064 10% level -2.638752 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(KONS)
Method: Least Squares Date: 02/19/10 Time: 00:38 Sample(adjusted): 1985 2007
Included observations: 23 after adjusting endpoints
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. KONS(-1) 0.069093 0.077975 0.886087 0.3856
C 1456556. 1738020. 0.838055 0.4114 R-squared 0.036041 Mean dependent var 2497631. Adjusted R-squared -0.009862 S.D. dependent var 6112137. S.E. of regression 6142203. Akaike info criterion 34.18221 Sum squared resid 7.92E+14 Schwarz criterion 34.28094 Log likelihood -391.0954 F-statistic 0.785149 Durbin-Watson stat 2.212959 Prob(F-statistic) 0.385606
Lampiran 5. Tabel Output Stationeritas PDRB Null Hypothesis: PDRB has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on AIC, MAXLAG=2)
t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic 0.473459 0.9818 Test critical values: 1% level -3.752946
5% level -2.998064 10% level -2.638752 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(PDRB)
Method: Least Squares Date: 02/19/10 Time: 00:40 Sample(adjusted): 1985 2007
Included observations: 23 after adjusting endpoints
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. PDRB(-1) 0.031918 0.067414 0.473459 0.6408
C 3186762. 2964857. 1.074845 0.2946 R-squared 0.010562 Mean dependent var 4176415. Adjusted R-squared -0.036554 S.D. dependent var 9904601. S.E. of regression 10084005 Akaike info criterion 35.17374 Sum squared resid 2.14E+15 Schwarz criterion 35.27248 Log likelihood -402.4980 F-statistic 0.224163 Durbin-Watson stat 2.140368 Prob(F-statistic) 0.640771
Lampiran 6. Tabel Output Stationeritas PDRB t-1 Null Hypothesis: PDRB1 has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on AIC, MAXLAG=2)
t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic 0.467581 0.9815 Test critical values: 1% level -3.752946
5% level -2.998064 10% level -2.638752 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(PDRB1)
Method: Least Squares Date: 02/19/10 Time: 00:41 Sample(adjusted): 1985 2007
Included observations: 23 after adjusting endpoints
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. PDRB1(-1) 0.034339 0.073441 0.467581 0.6449
C 2992396. 2896773. 1.033010 0.3133 R-squared 0.010304 Mean dependent var 3922447. Adjusted R-squared -0.036825 S.D. dependent var 9918670. S.E. of regression 10099645 Akaike info criterion 35.17684 Sum squared resid 2.14E+15 Schwarz criterion 35.27558 Log likelihood -402.5337 F-statistic 0.218632 Durbin-Watson stat 2.138691 Prob(F-statistic) 0.644900
Lampiran 7. Tabel Output Stationeritas Populasi Null Hypothesis: POP has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 1 (Automatic based on AIC, MAXLAG=2)
t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -1.396895 0.5650 Test critical values: 1% level -3.769597
5% level -3.004861 10% level -2.642242 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(POP)
Method: Least Squares Date: 02/19/10 Time: 00:42 Sample(adjusted): 1986 2007
Included observations: 22 after adjusting endpoints
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. POP(-1) -0.055270 0.039566 -1.396895 0.1785 D(POP(-1)) -0.428438 0.206065 -2.079138 0.0514 C 832403.2 437800.5 1.901330 0.0725 R-squared 0.230945 Mean dependent var 162915.7 Adjusted R-squared 0.149992 S.D. dependent var 183117.2 S.E. of regression 168826.6 Akaike info criterion 27.03726 Sum squared resid 5.42E+11 Schwarz criterion 27.18603 Log likelihood -294.4098 F-statistic 2.852819 Durbin-Watson stat 1.706841 Prob(F-statistic) 0.082527
Lampiran 8. Tabel Output Stationeritas Suku Bunga Deposito Null Hypothesis: SB has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on AIC, MAXLAG=2)
t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -2.021316 0.2762 Test critical values: 1% level -3.752946
5% level -2.998064 10% level -2.638752 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(SB)
Method: Least Squares Date: 02/19/10 Time: 00:43 Sample(adjusted): 1985 2007
Included observations: 23 after adjusting endpoints
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. SB(-1) -0.368306 0.182211 -2.021316 0.0562
C 5.646231 3.015471 1.872421 0.0751 R-squared 0.162870 Mean dependent var -0.344348 Adjusted R-squared 0.123007 S.D. dependent var 2.849191 S.E. of regression 2.668208 Akaike info criterion 4.883632 Sum squared resid 149.5060 Schwarz criterion 4.982371 Log likelihood -54.16177 F-statistic 4.085719 Durbin-Watson stat 1.718978 Prob(F-statistic) 0.056177
Lampiran 9. Tabel Output Stationeritas Konsumsi Pada 1st Difference Null Hypothesis: D(KONS) has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on AIC, MAXLAG=2)
t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -4.486094 0.0020 Test critical values: 1% level -3.769597
5% level -3.004861 10% level -2.642242 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(KONS,2) Method: Least Squares
Date: 02/19/10 Time: 00:45 Sample(adjusted): 1986 2007
Included observations: 22 after adjusting endpoints
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. D(KONS(-1)) -1.004629 0.223943 -4.486094 0.0002
C 2619699. 1460997. 1.793089 0.0881 R-squared 0.501558 Mean dependent var 242322.7 Adjusted R-squared 0.476636 S.D. dependent var 8827261. S.E. of regression 6385985. Akaike info criterion 34.26362 Sum squared resid 8.16E+14 Schwarz criterion 34.36280 Log likelihood -374.8998 F-statistic 20.12503 Durbin-Watson stat 1.998403 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000226
Lampiran 10. Tabel Output Stationeritas PDRB Pada 1st Difference Null Hypothesis: D(PDRB) has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on AIC, MAXLAG=2)
t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -4.623947 0.0015 Test critical values: 1% level -3.769597
5% level -3.004861 10% level -2.642242 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(PDRB,2) Method: Least Squares
Date: 02/19/10 Time: 00:46 Sample(adjusted): 1986 2007
Included observations: 22 after adjusting endpoints
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. D(PDRB(-1)) -1.030680 0.222900 -4.623947 0.0002
C 4484321. 2384601. 1.880533 0.0747 R-squared 0.516685 Mean dependent var 286049.9 Adjusted R-squared 0.492519 S.D. dependent var 14518024 S.E. of regression 10342302 Akaike info criterion 35.22789 Sum squared resid 2.14E+15 Schwarz criterion 35.32708 Log likelihood -385.5068 F-statistic 21.38089 Durbin-Watson stat 2.007011 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000164
Lampiran 11. Tabel Output Stationeritas PDRB t-1 Pada 1st Difference Null Hypothesis: D(PDRB1) has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on AIC, MAXLAG=2)
t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -4.598563 0.0016 Test critical values: 1% level -3.769597
5% level -3.004861 10% level -2.642242 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(PDRB1,2) Method: Least Squares
Date: 02/19/10 Time: 00:48 Sample(adjusted): 1986 2007
Included observations: 22 after adjusting endpoints
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. D(PDRB1(-1)) -1.025767 0.223062 -4.598563 0.0002
C 4172584. 2372393. 1.758808 0.0939 R-squared 0.513935 Mean dependent var 220273.4 Adjusted R-squared 0.489632 S.D. dependent var 14517936 S.E. of regression 10371619 Akaike info criterion 35.23355 Sum squared resid 2.15E+15 Schwarz criterion 35.33274 Log likelihood -385.5691 F-statistic 21.14679 Durbin-Watson stat 2.004953 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000174
Lampiran 12. Tabel Output Stationeritas Populasi Pada 1st Difference Null Hypothesis: D(POP) has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on AIC, MAXLAG=2)
t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -6.663265 0.0000 Test critical values: 1% level -3.769597
5% level -3.004861 10% level -2.642242 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(POP,2)
Method: Least Squares Date: 02/19/10 Time: 00:48 Sample(adjusted): 1986 2007
Included observations: 22 after adjusting endpoints
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. D(POP(-1)) -1.396865 0.209637 -6.663265 0.0000
C 224533.2 49158.77 4.567512 0.0002 R-squared 0.689437 Mean dependent var 7654.909 Adjusted R-squared 0.673908 S.D. dependent var 302595.0 S.E. of regression 172795.1 Akaike info criterion 27.04411 Sum squared resid 5.97E+11 Schwarz criterion 27.14329 Log likelihood -295.4852 F-statistic 44.39910 Durbin-Watson stat 1.712641 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000002
Lampiran 13. Tabel Output Stationeritas Suku Bunga Deposito Pada 1st Difference
Null Hypothesis: D(SB) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 1 (Automatic based on AIC, MAXLAG=2)
t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -5.259951 0.0004 Test critical values: 1% level -3.788030
5% level -3.012363 10% level -2.646119 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(SB,2)
Method: Least Squares Date: 02/19/10 Time: 00:49 Sample(adjusted): 1987 2007
Included observations: 21 after adjusting endpoints
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. D(SB(-1)) -1.477889 0.280970 -5.259951 0.0001 D(SB(-1),2) 0.467215 0.198582 2.352752 0.0302 C -0.425202 0.571338 -0.744222 0.4663 R-squared 0.641754 Mean dependent var 0.190000 Adjusted R-squared 0.601949 S.D. dependent var 4.053496 S.E. of regression 2.557403 Akaike info criterion 4.847426 Sum squared resid 117.7256 Schwarz criterion 4.996643 Log likelihood -47.89797 F-statistic 16.12239 Durbin-Watson stat 1.936491 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000097
Lampiran 14. Corrrelation Matrix KONS PDRB PDRB1 POP SB KONS 1.000000 0.926005 0.952972 0.798816 -0.723835 PDRB 0.926005 1.000000 0.959373 0.829495 -0.626487 PDRB1 0.952972 0.959373 1.000000 0.821067 -0.645810 POP 0.798816 0.829495 0.821067 1.000000 -0.591690 SB -0.723835 -0.626487 -0.645810 -0.591690 1.000000
Lampiran 15. Grafik Perkembangan Konsumsi di Sumatera Utara
-10,000,000.00 20,000,000.00 30,000,000.00 40,000,000.00 50,000,000.00 60,000,000.00 70,000,000.00 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Tahun
Lampiran 16. Grafik Perkembangan PDRB di Sumatera Utara 0 20,000,000 40,000,000 60,000,000 80,000,000 100,000,000 120,000,000 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Tahun J u ta R p
Lampiran 17. Grafik Perkembangan Suku Bunga di Sumatera Utara
0 5 10 15 20 25 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Tahun P e rs e n
