ekonoMi DoMestik: Menunggu keCepatan realisasi prograM peMerintah

Ekonomi Indonesia mengalami perlambatan dimana semester 1 tahun 2015 hanya tumbuh 4,9 persen dibawah target yang dipatok pemerintah sebesar 5,5 - 6 persen. Hal ini dikarenakan pelemahan ekspor komoditas dan masih lambatnya realisasi belanja APBN akibat masalah pembebasan lahan dan ketakutan pimpinan proyek terhadap kriminalisasi.

Pemerintah berupaya mempercepat realisasi belanja APBN dengan mempercepat proses pembebasan lahan dan memberikan perlindungan kepada pimpinan proyek agar tidak ragu menjalankan proyeknya.

iT’s NOW OR NEvER

“It is not the strongest species that survive, not the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change”

– Charles Darwin

jakarta, October 1, 2015

I

would like to start my speech by inviting you all to join me in prayer, to thank and praise God Almighty for His blessings that we can continue to sustain our company.

The IMF has recently projected that in 2016 the global economy will strengthen and grow by 3.8 percent, or slightly better compared to the 3.3 percent in 2015. Within this projection, the economies of the developed world are expected to recover and grow by around 2.1 percent due to more efective iscal policies and the decrease in oil prices. Developing countries are going to experience a slowdown, growing by around 4.7 percent with weaker commodity prices as the main contributing factor. However, there is also an expectation that commodity prices will increase slightly on the back of the stronger global economy.

DOMEsTic EcONOMY: AWAiTiNG AccElERATiON

WiTh GOvERNMENT PROGRAM REAlizATiON

Indonesia’s economy has been experiencing a slowdown, growing only 4.9 percent in the irst semester of 2015 compared to the 5.5-6.0% percent targeted by the government. The main reasons are the weakening commodity exports and the slow state budget realization, as a result of the problems surrounding land acquisition and the fear among project executors of criminalization. The government has been trying to accelerate the realization of the state budget by expediting land acquisition

Pemerintah menargetkan pertumbuhan ekonomi tahun 2016 sebesar 5,3 persen dengan menggenjot pembangunan infrastruktur. Besaran APBN 2016 sekitar Rp 2.100 triliun lebih dimana lebih dari Rp 300 triliun dialokasikan untuk infrastruktur yang diharapkan bisa menggerakkan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Selain itu pemerintah juga mengeluarkan beberapa stimulus kebijakan baru-baru ini untuk menggerakkan ekonomi domestik. Kita semua berharap agar pemerintah bisa segera merealisasikan belanja APBN sehingga ekonomi Indonesia bisa bergulir lebih cepat.

BatuBara: ekspor Makin sulit,

DoMestik Masih aDa asa

Tekanan di industri batubara global masih akan berlanjut. Cina sebagai konsumen batubara terbesar dunia, mengurangi pemakaian batubara karena ekonominya tengah melambat dan juga sedang berupaya menekan polusi udara. Sementara di Amerika banyak pembangkit listrik tenaga batubara yang berhenti beroperasi dan berpindah ke gas akibat penerapan standar emisi yang lebih ketat. Baru-baru ini, India mengumumkan akan mengurangi impor batubaranya dengan memacu produksi domestik.

Semua hal diatas menyebabkan pasar batubara global tahun depan masih kelebihan pasokan, harganya belum akan membaik dan pasar ekspor semakin sulit.

Industri batubara di Indonesia juga terkena dampak dari pelemahan pasar batubara global dimana produksi batubara semester 1 tahun 2015 turun 18 persen dibandingkan periode sebelumnya. Hal ini dikarenakan banyak perusahaan batubara yang kesulitan memasarkan produknya terutama di pasar ekspor. Harga jual batubara sudah merosot tajam sehingga banyak perusahaan batubara menurunkan target produksinya, bahkan ada yang berhenti berproduksi karena terus merugi.

processes and giving some forms of protection to project executors to eliminate their hesitation in implementing projects.

Our government has targeted a 5.3% rate of economic growth for 2016 by accelerating infrastructure developments. The state budget of 2016 has allocated a total spending of more than Rp2,100 trillion, of which Rp300 trillion is designated for infrastructure to trigger economic growth. In addition, recently the government has issued a number of stimulants for the domestic economy. Of course, we all hope all these initiatives will succeed in accelerating the realization of our state budget for our national economy to grow faster.

cOAl: ExPORT is iNcREAsiNGlY DiFFiculT,

ThE DOMEsTic MARKET is sTill PROsPEcTivE

We will continue to see an ongoing pressure in the global market. China, the world’s largest coal consumers, has reduced its coal consumption due to domestic economic slowdown and the move to keep pollution low. On the other side of the world, after the application of a stricter emission standard, many coal-ired power plants in the US have stopped operating and shifted to using gas for fuel. India has also recently announced its plan to reduce coal imports and increase domestic production.

With all the above factors combined, the global coal market will still face oversupply next year. We expect that 2016 will not see a price recovery and that the export market will be increasingly diicult.

Indonesia’s coal industry has been sufering from the impact of the weakening global coal market, with coal production in the irst half of 2015 decreasing 18 percent from the previous period as many coal companies have found it diicult to sell their products, especially in the export market. The signiicant drop in coal prices have made many companies reduce their production target, and some have even stopped production entirely after experiencing continuing losses.

it’s now or neVer

Proyek listrik 35.000 MW merupakan yang terbesar selama 70 tahun Indonesia merdeka dan didominasi oleh PLTU tenaga batubara. Kedepannya, mungkin tidak akan ada lagi proyek sebesar ini. Kesempatan ini sangat langka, oleh karena itu kita harus bisa meraih kesempatan luar biasa yang sudah ada didepan mata. “It’s now or never”.

Beroperasinya PLTU tersebut nantinya akan meningkatkan konsumsi batubara domestik. Selain itu, pembangunan infrastruktur secara masif akan mendorong konsumsi semen yang juga membutuhkan batubara sebagai bahan bakar.

Saya masih optimis bahwa industri batubara domestik akan membaik karena kebutuhan masih akan tumbuh sementara pasokan berkurang sehingga akan terbentuk keseimbangan baru dalam supply dan demand.