VII. SIMPULAN DAN IMPLIKASI KEBIJAKAN
7.3. Saran Penelitian Lanjutan
1. Dalam penelitian selanjutnya sebaiknya juga memperhatikan pakan selain untuk ternak ayam ras, sehingga akan terlihat lebih jelas bagaimana keterkaitan pasar jagung, pakan dan daging ayam ras di Indonesia dari hulu sampai hilir secara komprehensif lagi.
2. Perlu dilakukan disagregasi produksi daging ayam ras menurut pola pemeliharannya (industri peternakan rakyat dan swasta) dan menurut jenisnya (daging ayam ras dan buras) sehingga produksi daging ayam dapat diketahui dengan jelas.
3. Perlu penelitian lanjutan untuk memperoleh gambaran perilaku konsumsi jagung di Indonesia, sehingga pembentukan harga jagung dapat dikaji lebih spesifik, karena pembentukan harga jagung juga dipengaruhi oleh perilaku produksi dan konsumsi.
4. Perlu penelitian lanjutan mengenai liberalisasi perdagangan jagung dan daging ayam ras dunia dengan memasukkan perilaku negara produsen, negara eksportir dan negara importir utama jagung serta daging ayam ras, sehingga dampak liberalisasi perdagangan jagung dan daging ayam ras dapat diketahui dengan jelas.
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1980 2 734.94 3 525.60 899.00 2 175.00 400.00 3 474.00 3 345.80 130.00 33.80 214.00 12 830.00 1981 2 955.03 4 509.30 1 033.00 1 796.00 1 426.00 4 255.00 4 306.20 144.00 2.00 205.00 13 590.00 1982 2 061.29 3 234.83 1 188.00 1 830.00 249.00 3 267.00 3 114.40 198.00 76.50 197.00 13 571.00 1983 3 002.00 5 087.24 1 331.00 2 477.00 1 096.00 4 904.00 4 926.40 196.00 28.20 189.00 14 701.00 1984 3 086.00 5 287.83 1 491.00 2 915.00 664.00 5 070.00 5 165.80 205.00 59.40 181.00 14 170.00 1985 2 440.00 4 329.50 1 670.00 2 509.00 167.00 4 346.00 4 205.30 224.00 50.00 174.00 14 225.00 1986 3 142.75 5 920.26 1 870.00 2 157.00 1 654.00 5 681.00 5 810.90 227.00 57.80 167.00 14 653.00 1987 2 626.03 5 154.74 1 923.00 1 715.00 1 473.00 5 111.00 5 215.20 257.00 221.00 161.00 16 504.00 1988 3 405.75 6 651.92 1 986.00 1 668.00 2 570.00 6 224.00 6 561.30 287.00 63.50 154.00 16 555.00 1989 2 944.19 6 192.51 2 049.00 1 532.00 2 054.00 5 635.00 6 084.20 309.00 39.60 148.00 15 811.00 1990 3 158.09 6 734.03 2 112.00 1 454.00 2 580.00 6 146.00 6 601.10 338.00 9.10 142.00 16 008.00 1991 2 909.10 6 431.05 2 174.00 1 339.00 2 727.00 6 240.00 6 721.40 358.00 323.30 33.00 16 646.00 1992 3 629.34 7 995.46 2 236.00 1 231.00 3 770.00 7 237.00 7 901.40 362.00 55.90 150.00 16 382.00 1993 2 939.53 7 196.74 2 298.00 1 108.00 3 568.00 6 974.00 7 630.20 388.00 494.50 61.00 16 863.00 1994 3 109.39 6 868.89 2 359.00 952.00 3 943.00 7 254.00 7 950.20 437.00 1 118.30 37.00 15 930.00 1995 3 651.83 8 245.90 2 420.00 799.00 5 030.00 8 249.00 9 136.10 507.00 969.20 79.00 16 580.00 1996 3 679.69 9 307.42 3 315.00 633.00 5 057.00 9 005.00 9 897.30 619.00 616.90 27.00 16 004.00 1997 3 754.22 8 770.85 3 075.00 652.00 5 205.00 8 932.00 9 850.30 693.00 1 098.40 19.00 16 097.00 1998 3 796.83 10 169.49 1 294.00 682.00 6 694.00 8 670.00 9 850.00 1 229.00 313.50 633.00 16 049.00 1999 3 861.28 9 134.44 1 717.00 702.00 6 157.00 8 576.00 9 661.50 1 481.00 618.10 91.00 16 606.00 2000 3 910.78 9 676.90 2 285.00 716.00 6 726.00 9 727.00 10 913.50 1 440.00 1 264.60 28.00 16 111.00 2001 3 970.51 9 347.20 2 518.00 730.00 5 988.00 9 236.00 10 293.00 1 450.00 1 035.80 90.00 16 222.00 2002 4 023.25 10 034.60 2 593.00 763.00 6 920.00 10 277.00 11 102.40 1 493.00 1 154.06 86.00 16 390.40 2003 4 080.76 10 029.00 2 671.00 817.00 6 758.00 10 245.00 11 291.80 1 547.00 1 345.45 83.00 16 542.30 2004 4 135.01 10 495.60 2 748.00 892.00 7 313.00 10 953.00 11 770.80 1 605.00 1 354.51 79.00 16 698.90 2005 4 191.49 10 640.40 2 825.00 989.00 7 397.00 11 210.00 11 992.10 1 665.00 1 427.70 76.00 16 854.20
1980 67 050.00 79 914.00 63 152.00 62 938.36 126 090.00 0.22 0.17 447.00 425.00 32.20 479.20 1981 67 263.00 80 855.00 54 856.00 54 650.91 109 507.00 0.36 0.18 594.00 564.00 35.00 629.00 1982 56 180.00 69 828.00 48 942.00 48 745.12 97 687.00 0.17 0.15 647.00 615.00 40.20 687.20 1983 54 850.00 69 579.00 47 629.00 47 440.00 95 069.00 0.19 0.16 740.00 703.00 47.70 787.70 1984 53 552.00 67 781.00 49 085.00 48 903.56 97 989.00 0.16 0.16 890.00 846.00 58.40 948.40 1985 56 489.00 70 764.00 44 016.00 43 841.83 87 858.00 1.14 0.14 1 061.00 1 007.00 66.40 1 127.40 1986 44 214.00 58 925.00 27 086.00 26 918.80 54 005.00 0.11 0.14 1 209.00 1 148.00 73.10 1 282.10 1987 48 055.00 64 780.00 40 906.00 40 745.49 81 651.00 0.11 0.12 1 342.00 1 275.00 82.70 1 424.70 1988 50 324.00 66 943.00 46 568.00 46 413.91 92 982.00 0.13 0.14 1 331.00 1 255.00 98.60 1 429.60 1989 61 342.00 77 193.00 56 513.00 56 365.08 112 878.00 0.14 0.15 1 459.00 1 368.00 59.30 1 518.30 1990 57 616.00 73 633.00 52 172.00 52 030.00 104 202.00 0.19 0.15 1 598.00 1 546.00 99.20 1 697.20 1991 48 862.00 65 831.00 44 558.00 44 525.00 89 083.00 0.14 0.15 1 887.00 1 793.00 40.40 1 927.40 1992 55 865.00 72 303.00 43 236.00 43 086.00 86 322.00 0.15 0.16 1 806.00 1 775.00 130.10 1 936.10 1993 51 594.00 68 952.00 40 365.00 40 304.00 80 669.00 0.14 0.15 1 916.00 2 409.00 511.70 2 427.70 1994 46 164.00 63 212.00 35 877.00 35 840.00 71 717.00 0.14 0.16 3 340.00 2 841.00 254.90 3 594.90 1995 59 415.00 76 964.00 60 240.00 60 161.00 120 401.00 0.16 0.16 3 550.00 3 145.00 868.50 4 418.50 1996 54 482.00 71 103.00 52 410.00 52 383.00 104 793.00 0.22 0.20 4 296.00 3 448.00 1 512.80 5 808.80 1997 55 162.00 72 357.00 41 792.00 41 773.00 83 565.00 0.16 0.16 4 445.00 3 017.00 563.80 5 008.80 1998 56 483.00 72 846.00 42 125.00 41 492.00 83 617.00 0.15 0.14 2 086.00 1 665.00 790.10 2 876.10 1999 58 688.00 75 912.00 51 975.00 51 884.00 103 859.00 0.13 0.13 2 774.00 1 526.00 2 074.80 4 848.80 2000 64 520.00 81 896.00 47 971.00 47 943.00 95 914.00 0.13 0.13 4 497.00 2 497.00 2 230.00 6 727.00 2001 64 821.00 82 079.00 47 944.00 47 854.00 95 798.00 0.12 0.13 4 991.00 2 466.00 2 367.88 7 358.88 2002 64 591.60 82 136.00 47 173.00 47 086.73 94 260.00 0.12 0.13 5 511.00 2 531.00 2 481.71 7 992.71 2003 64 509.90 82 398.00 46 496.90 46 414.21 92 911.00 0.12 0.13 6 860.00 2 620.00 2 589.94 9 449.94 2004 64 387.10 82 441.00 45 808.80 45 729.54 91 538.00 0.13 0.13 7 180.00 2 714.00 2 696.82 9 876.60 2005 64 275.80 82 558.00 45 122.10 45 046.12 90 168.00 0.13 0.14 7 462.00 2 809.00 2 808.91 10 270.52
136 1980 182.00 0.39 21.22 21.69 21.22 1 432.00 179.00 23 646.00 0.47 63.92 70.26 1.00 1981 210.00 0.49 23.42 24.27 23.42 1 686.00 243.00 25 462.00 0.85 54.38 98.00 2.00 1982 392.00 0.47 25.86 26.74 25.86 1 817.00 230.00 28 110.00 0.88 63.43 102.93 3.00 1983 397.00 0.39 72.99 73.56 73.00 2 041.00 219.00 31 033.00 0.57 60.62 100.58 4.00 1984 401.00 0.40 78.50 78.72 92.15 1 671.00 205.00 110 580.00 0.22 60.70 103.73 5.00 1985 414.00 0.38 114.50 114.54 119.71 1 863.00 195.00 143 657.00 0.04 70.56 100.46 6.00 1986 381.00 0.48 139.20 139.26 144.82 2 030.00 176.00 173 795.00 0.06 70.38 174.43 7.00 1987 444.00 0.52 174.60 174.66 181.81 2 262.00 175.00 218 183.00 0.06 90.48 195.33 8.00 1988 520.00 0.52 181.70 181.75 189.20 2 310.00 141.00 227 044.00 0.05 90.16 260.87 9.00 1989 575.00 0.56 210.40 210.43 210.00 2 351.00 125.00 262 918.00 0.03 134.42 270.59 10.00 1990 604.00 0.64 261.40 260.63 261.14 2 638.00 134.00 326 612.00 0.12 162.93 291.23 11.00 1991 634.00 0.71 326.40 325.97 326.21 2 994.00 143.00 407 908.00 0.17 206.32 347.31 12.00 1992 686.00 0.54 267.40 267.37 368.44 3 128.00 715.00 459 097.00 1.18 276.98 393.96 13.00 1993 732.00 0.69 422.70 422.55 423.63 3 510.00 730.00 528 159.00 0.48 339.13 390.32 14.00 1994 691.00 0.85 498.50 499.40 500.10 3 905.00 924.00 622 965.00 2.00 467.47 444.11 15.00 1995 825.00 1.09 551.80 552.28 553.00 3 861.00 100.00 689 467.00 1.48 647.15 535.96 16.00 1996 929.00 1.02 605.00 603.31 605.00 4 699.00 1 026.00 755 956.00 0.49 710.34 546.57 17.00 1997 998.00 0.92 515.30 515.75 515.00 4 696.00 888.00 641 374.00 0.45 772.44 496.14 18.00 1998 2 328.00 0.84 285.00 281.36 288.00 7 746.00 1 264.00 354 004.00 0.35 802.78 497.25 19.00 1999 2 263.00 0.78 294.50 299.77 295.86 11 883.00 2 704.00 324 347.00 8.14 1 061.03 551.36 20.00 2000 2 345.00 0.84 515.00 523.48 515.74 10 483.00 2 424.00 530 874.00 14.02 993.78 568.27 21.00 2001 2 470.00 0.87 537.00 549.70 517.74 8 764.00 2 707.00 621 870.00 14.54 879.85 523.09 22.00 2002 2 577.00 0.87 751.90 758.31 536.05 8 583.00 2 706.00 865 075.00 9.49 498.70 524.44 23.00 2003 2 687.00 0.87 771.10 784.93 558.04 8 779.00 872.00 847 744.00 17.55 565.08 466.11 24.00 2004 2 796.00 0.89 846.10 864.03 580.86 9 066.00 1 435.00 778 970.00 18.05 180.73 353.79 25.00 2005 2 905.00 0.91 883.40 901.73 603.87 9 375.00 1 341.00 864 246.00 18.79 121.86 308.74 26.00
1980 1 176.03 1 310.68 0.00 280.25 168.80 1 057.31 1 506.37 1.64 1.55 334.00 2 132.00 0.00 1981 1 505.23 1 658.46 0.00 244.12 293.90 1 374.42 1 912.48 2.28 1.45 378.00 2 448.00 0.00 1982 1 468.72 1 635.96 0.00 237.11 296.80 1 385.04 1 918.92 1.86 1.31 406.00 2 524.00 0.00 1983 1 340.52 1 502.29 0.00 203.45 289.50 1 372.33 1 865.26 2.01 1.20 475.00 2 478.00 0.00 1984 1 248.63 1 413.28 0.00 196.07 280.40 1 282.69 1 759.20 1.99 1.23 528.00 2 832.00 0.00 1985 1 239.41 1 410.47 0.00 198.09 277.50 1 252.90 1 728.50 2.00 1.18 566.00 3 100.00 0.00 1986 1 341.11 1 585.98 0.00 257.40 232.70 1 325.47 1 815.57 4.19 1.37 634.00 3 451.00 0.00 1987 1 442.42 1 728.29 0.00 346.91 211.30 1 366.06 1 924.26 2.84 1.43 720.00 4 141.00 0.00 1988 1 461.31 1 812.39 0.00 358.04 238.50 1 499.55 2 096.07 2.04 1.43 817.00 4 464.00 0.00 1989 1 441.24 1 846.28 0.00 453.07 239.20 1 512.30 2 204.53 1.91 1.52 835.00 4 650.00 0.00 1990 1 728.29 2 182.57 0.89 529.14 292.20 1 672.00 2 494.23 1.29 1.63 956.00 5 131.00 0.00 1991 1 772.88 2 326.68 0.60 582.93 313.80 1 754.47 2 651.80 2.68 1.64 1 042.00 6 094.00 0.00 1992 1 924.19 2 596.31 1.21 698.33 370.70 1 990.63 3 060.87 1.39 1.65 1 077.00 6 741.00 0.00 1993 2 036.11 2 766.04 0.63 917.07 511.40 2 281.33 3 710.43 1.31 1.46 1 167.00 8 220.00 0.00 1994 2 505.25 3 418.83 1.10 1 347.54 485.20 2 437.73 4 271.57 1.47 1.49 1 221.00 9 203.00 0.00 1995 3 042.41 4 227.00 1.00 1 811.95 429.00 2 742.25 4 984.20 1.31 1.44 1 272.00 10 002.00 0.00 1996 3 268.62 4 526.02 2.18 2 129.91 558.60 3 228.56 5 919.25 0.69 1.44 1 323.00 10 991.00 0.00 1997 3 399.70 4 668.73 0.00 2 224.23 373.80 3 205.73 5 803.76 0.82 1.36 1 497.00 11 062.00 1.00 1998 3 708.29 5 008.67 3.99 2 249.96 612.50 3 708.32 6 574.77 1.00 1.29 3 108.00 15 971.00 1.00 1999 3 926.34 5 546.87 2.87 2 284.37 770.60 4 018.38 7 076.22 0.67 1.13 3 471.00 24 488.00 1.00 2000 4 395.43 5 971.50 5.54 2 613.62 906.80 4 275.82 7 801.78 0.68 1.02 2 114.00 25 584.00 1.00 2001 4 949.14 6 366.62 1.84 2 794.69 1 249.30 4 629.28 8 675.11 0.64 1.06 2 518.00 28 241.00 1.00 2002 5 376.14 6 408.77 3.08 2 335.88 1 599.90 4 851.87 8 790.75 0.65 1.05 2 601.00 30 045.00 1.00 2003 5 723.92 6 772.66 3.72 2 448.71 1 922.00 5 039.87 9 414.34 0.65 1.03 2 706.00 31 515.00 1.00 2004 6 022.15 6 574.72 0.12 2 343.29 2 424.50 5 218.71 9 986.64 0.58 1.01 2 809.00 32 856.00 1.00 2005 6 289.40 6 738.78 0.46 2 648.19 2 799.50 5 395.14 10 843.29 0.53 0.98 2 912.00 34 146.00 1.00
Sumber FAO FAO FAO FAO FAO FAO FAO FAO FAO BPS BPS Dummy
138 1980 931.00 143.00 40 903.00 148 040.00 239.11 6 861.51 12.74 633.00 18.00 1.20 40.00 0.00 1981 977.00 167.00 60 894.00 149 667.00 406.88 6 858.00 14.30 636.00 12.20 2.80 30.00 0.00 1982 911.00 150.00 65 847.00 152 988.00 430.42 6 803.00 15.65 662.00 9.50 -1.10 30.00 0.00 1983 1 089.00 147.00 78 507.00 156 372.00 520.01 6 691.00 17.50 915.00 11.80 3.20 30.00 0.00 1984 1 186.00 159.00 89 768.00 159 831.00 561.61 5 721.00 19.33 1 026.00 10.50 4.20 30.00 0.00 1985 1 148.00 186.00 99 417.00 163 367.00 608.51 6 189.00 20.24 1 110.00 4.70 7.60 30.00 0.00 1986 1 235.00 165.00 102 279.00 166 489.00 614.40 6 571.00 21.42 1 283.00 5.80 4.30 30.00 0.00 1987 1 352.00 131.00 124 539.00 170 179.00 731.80 6 675.00 23.41 1 644.00 9.30 6.00 30.00 0.00 1988 1 535.00 133.00 135 143.00 173 799.00 777.61 6 501.00 25.29 1 686.00 8.00 10.50 30.00 0.00 1989 1 765.00 111.00 156 636.00 174 730.00 883.12 6 741.00 26.91 1 771.00 6.40 8.10 30.00 0.00 1990 1 890.00 104.00 226 149.00 178 170.00 1 269.28 6 340.00 29.02 1 844.00 7.80 7.60 30.00 0.00 1991 1 928.00 119.00 250 946.00 181 256.00 1 385.74 6 036.00 31.74 1 950.00 9.40 7.50 30.00 0.00 1992 1 999.00 123.00 273 503.00 184 491.00 1 482.52 5 048.00 34.12 2 030.00 7.50 7.20 30.00 0.00 1993 1 970.00 127.00 336 240.00 187 589.00 1 792.46 4 788.00 37.43 2 087.00 9.70 6.80 30.00 0.00 1994 2 339.00 140.00 358 217.00 190 676.00 1 878.71 6 493.00 40.62 2 171.00 8.50 6.50 30.00 0.00 1995 2 477.00 140.00 399 972.00 193 486.00 2 067.21 6 526.00 44.45 2 267.00 9.40 6.30 20.00 0.00 1996 2 884.00 140.00 447 677.00 196 480.00 2 274.66 6 557.00 47.56 2 346.00 7.00 3.90 20.00 0.00 1997 3 018.00 140.00 504 033.00 199 837.00 2 522.15 6 576.00 50.50 2 884.00 6.20 3.50 20.00 0.00 1998 5 774.00 140.00 627 290.00 202 873.00 3 092.04 6 596.00 79.80 9 983.00 58.00 6.80 15.00 0.00 1999 8 702.00 140.00 511 166.00 205 915.00 2 484.49 6 615.00 96.36 7 976.00 20.70 6.60 15.00 0.00 2000 8 650.00 139.00 641 890.00 206 533.00 3 056.11 6 634.00 100.00 8 238.00 3.80 5.20 10.00 0.00 2001 8 780.00 139.00 604 441.00 208 901.00 2 821.42 6 654.00 111.50 10 124.00 11.50 4.90 5.00 0.00 2002 9 044.00 139.00 592 849.00 212 003.00 2 796.42 6 674.00 124.66 8 940.00 11.80 5.20 5.00 0.00 2003 9 363.00 139.00 634 454.00 215 276.00 2 947.15 6 693.00 133.10 8 645.00 6.80 5.30 5.00 0.00 2004 9 704.00 139.00 658 600.00 218 268.00 3 044.59 6 736.82 141.17 9 177.00 6.10 5.50 5.00 5.00 2005 10 054.00 139.00 693 521.00 221 251.00 3 171.49 6 778.50 155.93 9 488.00 10.50 5.70 5.00 5.00
Lampiran 2. Program Pendugaan Model Pasar Jagung, Pakan dan Daging Ayam Ras di Indonesia
PROC SORT DATA=AYAM1;BY TAHUN;RUN; PROC SORT DATA=AYAM2;BY TAHUN;RUN; PROC SORT DATA=AYAM3;BY TAHUN;RUN; PROC SORT DATA=AYAM4;BY TAHUN;RUN; PROC SORT DATA=AYAM5;BY TAHUN;RUN; DATA AYAM00;
MERGE AYAM1 AYAM2 AYAM3 AYAM4 AYAM5; BY TAHUN; HJMR = (HJM/IHK)*100; HKDR = (HKD/IHK)*100; HPKR = (HPK/IHK)*100; HJWR = (HJW/IHK)*100; HJDR = (HJD/IHK)*100; HKIR = (HKI/IHK)*100; HPDR = (HPD/IHK)*100; HDDR = (HDD/IHK)*100; WR = (W/IHK)*100; SJI = PJI+MJI-XJI; SPI = PPD+STP; DJI = DJP+DJM+DJIP; HDOCR = (HDOC/IHK)*100; HSDR = (HSD/IHK)*100; SDD = PDD+MDI-XDI; HDMR = (HDM/IHK)*NT*100; HDWR = (HDW/IHK)*NT*100; XJW = XJUS+XJRW; MJW = MJI+MJJ+MJRW; XDW = XDUS+XDB+XDI+XDRW; MDW = MDC+MDJ+MDI+MDRW; SBR = (SB-INF); HIR = (HI/IHK)*100; HTR = (HT/IHK)*100; PDBR = (PDB/IHK)*100; NTR = (NT/IHK)*100; LPJI = LAG(PJI); LHJWR = LAG(HJWR); LHJMR = LAG(HJMR); LSJI = LAG(SJI); LDJI = LAG(DJI); LDJP = LAG(DJP); LMJI = LAG(MJI); LHJW = LAG(HJW); LPPD = LAG(PPD); LDPI = LAG(DPI); LSTP = LAG(STP); LHPDR = LAG(HPDR); LHKDR = LAG(HKDR); LPDD = LAG(PDD); LDDD = LAG(DDD); LSDD = LAG(SDD); LHDDR = LAG(HDDR); LMJJ = LAG(MJJ); LXJUS = LAG(XJUS); LMDI = LAG(MDI); LXDI = LAG(XDI); LHDMR = LAG(HDMR); LHDWR = LAG(HDWR); LXDW = LAG(XDW); LMDW = LAG(MDW); LMDC = LAG(MDC); LMDJ = LAG(MDJ); LXDUS = LAG(XDUS); LXDB = LAG(XDB); LSPI = LAG(SPI); LHJDR = LAG(HJDR); LMJW = LAG(MJW); LXJW = LAG(XJW); LHPDR = LAG(HPDR); LHKIR = LAG(HKIR); LSBR = LAG(SBR); LWR = LAG(WR); LHTR = LAG(HTR); LHIR = LAG(HIR); LTA = LAG(TA); LTJ = LAG(TJ); LNTR = LAG (NTR); LPOP = LAG(POP); LPDBR = LAG(PDBR); LHDOCR= LAG(HDOCR); LHSDR = LAG(HSDR); HJDR2 = (HJDR-LHJDR); HPDR1 = (HPDR-LHPDR); HPDR5 = (LHPDR/LHJDR); HKDR2 = (HKDR/LHKDR); SBR2 = (SBR/LSBR); HDOCR1= (HDOCR-LHDOCR); TJ1 = (LTJ-TJ); NTR3 = (NTR/(NTR-LNTR)); POP3 = (POP/(POP-LPOP)); PDB2 = (PDBR/LPDBR); HDMR1 = (HDMR-LHDMR); DDD1 = (DDD/LDDD); PDD1 = (PDD/LPDD); XDW1 = (XDW/(XDW-LXDW)); HDDR3 = (HDDR/(HDDR-LHDDR)); SJI1 = (SJI/LSJI); SPI1 = (SPI/DPI); XJW1 = (XJW/LXJW);
Lampiran 2. Lanjutan
Label PPD = 'produksi pakan' SJI = 'penawaran jagung'; LAJ = 'luas areal panen jagung' PJI = 'produksi jagung'
DJI = 'permintaan jagung'
DJP = 'permintaan jagung industri pakan'
XJI = 'ekspor jagung'
HJWR = 'harga riil jagung dunia' HJMR = 'harga riil jagung impor' XJW = 'ekspor jagung dunia' MJW = 'impor jagung dunia' MJI = 'impor jagung'
HJDR = 'harga riil jagung domestik' HKIR = 'harga riil komponen impor' SB = 'tingkat suku bunga'
DPI = 'permintaan pakan ayam ras'
HPDR = 'harga riil pakan ayam ras domestik' HDDR = 'harga riil daging ayam ras domestik' PA = 'populasi ayam ras'
SPI = 'penawaran pakan ayam ras' PDD = 'produksi daging ayam ras' HDOCR = 'harga riil DOC'
STP = 'stok pakan ayam ras'
HSDR = 'harga riil daging sapi domestik' POP = 'populasi penduduk'
PPK = 'pendapatan per kapita' SDD = 'penawaran daging ayam ras' MDI = 'impor daging ayam ras' XDI = 'ekspor daging ayam ras' DDD = ’permintaan daging ayam ras’ HDMR = 'harga riil daging ayam ras impor' PDBR = 'PDB riil'
HDWR = 'harga daging ayam ras dunia' XDW = 'ekspor daging ayam ras dunia' XDUS = 'ekspor daging ayam ras USA'
XDRW = 'ekspor daging ayam ras sisa dunia' MDW = 'impor daging ayam ras dunia' MDC = 'impor daging ayam ras dunia' MDJ = 'impor daging ayam ras Jepang' MDRW = 'impor daging ayam ras sisa dunia' TA = 'tarif impor daging ayam'
TJ = 'tarif impor jagung'
INF = 'tingkat inflasi' SBR = 'suku bunga riil' HPKR = 'harga riil pupuk' HKDR = 'harga riil kedelai'
IHK = 'indeks harga konsumen Indonesia' HTR = 'harga riil telur'
HSDR = 'harga riil daging sapi domestik' HIR = 'harga riil ikan'
HDWR = 'harga riil daging ayam ras dunia' HDWR = 'harga riil daging ayam ras dunia' HJDR = 'harga riil jagung domestik' NTR = 'nilai tukar riil'
T = 'trend waktu'
D = 'dummy krisis moneter'
Lampiran 2. Lanjutan
WR = 'upah riil tenaga kerja' LPPD = 'produksi pakan t-1'
LPDD = 'produksi daging ayam ras t-1' HPDR = 'harga riil pakan ayam ras domestik' LDPI = 'permintaan pakan ayam ras t-1'
LHPDR = 'harga riil pakan ayam ras domestik t-1' LHDDR = 'harga riil daging ayam ras domestik t-1' LDDD = 'permintaan daging ayam ras t-1'
LHDDR = 'harga riil daging ayam ras domestik t-1' LHDMR = 'harga riil daging ayam ras impor t-1' LHIR = 'harga riil ikan t-1'
LTA = 'tarif impor daging ayam t-1' LWR = 'upah riil tenaga kerja t-1' LMDI = 'impor daging ayam ras t-1' LSBR = 'suku bunga riil t-1' LXDI = 'ekspor daging ayam ras t-1'
LHDWR = 'harga riil daging ayam ras dunia t-1' LMDW = 'impor daging ayam ras dunia t-1' LHJMR = 'harga riil jagung impor t-1' LHJDR = 'harga riil jagung domestik t-1' LHTR = 'harga riil telur t-1'
LPJI = 'produksi jagung t-1' LMJI = 'impor jagung t-1'
LHJWR = 'harga riil jagung dunia t-1'
LDJP = 'permintaan jagung industri pakan t-1' LHKIR = 'harga riil komponen impor t-1' HDOCR1 = '(HDOCR-LHDOCR)' HPDR1 = '(HPDR-LHPDR)' HPDR5 = '(LHPDR/LHJDR)' HDMR1 = '(HDMR-LHDMR)' HDDR3 = '(HDDR/(HDDR-LHDDR))' DDD1 = '(DDD/LDDD)' PDB2 = '(PDBR/LPDBR)' NTR3 = '(NTR/(NTR-LNTR))' PDD1 = '(PDD/LPDD)' XDW1 = '(XDW/(XDW-LXDW))' POP3 = '(POP/(POP-LPOP))' HJDR2 = '(HJDR-LHJDR)' SJI1 = '(SJI/LSJI)' SBR2 = '(SBR/LSBR)' HKDR2 = '(HKDR/LHKDR)' TJ1 = '(LTJ-TJ)' SPI1 = '(SPI/DPI)' XJW1 = '(XJW/LXJW)'; ; RUN;
PROC SYSLIN DATA=AYAM00 2SLS;
ENDOGENOUS PJI SJI DJI DJP HJDR MJI MJW XJW HJWR PPD SPI DPI HPDR PDD SDD DDD HDDR MDI XDI HDMR MDW XDW HDWR;
INSTRUMENTS LAJ MJJ MJRW XJUS XJRW DJM DJIP WR HTR HIR HKIR PA POP HSDR D TA PDBR NTR MDJ MDC MDRW XDUS XDB XDRW SBR HDOCR LHJDR LAJ LWR LPJI LSJI LDJI LPDBR LMJI LHJWR LHPDR LSBR LPPD LDPI LHDDR LHDMR LHDOCR LPDD LHTR LHIR LHSDR LDDD LHDWR LPOP LTA LMDI LNTR LXDI LMDW XJI;
Lampiran 2. Lanjutan
MODEL PJI = HJDR2 LAJ HPKR WR SBR D T LPJI/DW; MODEL DJP = HJDR HPDR5 HKDR2 LDJP/DW;
MODEL HJDR = SJI1 DJI HJWR LHJDR/DW;
MODEL MJI = LHJDR HJWR NTR POP PDB2 TJ1 LMJI/DW; MODEL HJWR = XJW1 MJW T LHJWR/DW;
MODEL PPD = LHPDR LHJDR LHKIR LSBR T LPPD/DW; MODEL DPI = HPDR HDDR PA LDPI/DW;
MODEL HPDR = SPI1 D T LHPDR/DW;
MODEL PDD = HDDR3 HDOCR1 HPDR1 PA SBR2 T LPDD/DW; MODEL DDD = LHDDR LHTR LHIR HSDR PPK D LDDD/DW; MODEL HDDR = SDD DDD LHDWR D LHDDR/DW;
MODEL MDI = HDMR1 HDDR DDD1 PDB2 POP3 LTA NT LMDI/DW; MODEL XDI = PDD1 HDDR3 HDWR NTR3 D T LXDI/DW;
MODEL HDMR = HDWR1 NTR T LHDMR/DW; MODEL HDWR = XDW LMDW PDW T LHDWR/DW; IDENTITY SJI = PJI + MJI - XJI;
IDENTITY DJI = DJP + DJM + DJIP; IDENTITY MJW = MJI + MJJ + MJRW; IDENTITY XJW = XJUS + XJI + XJRW; IDENTITY SPI = PPD + STP;
IDENTITY XDW = XDUS + XDB + XDI + XDRW; IDENTITY MDW = MDC + MDJ + MDI + MDRW; IDENTITY SDD = PDD + MDI - XDI;
Lampiran 3. Hasil Pengolahan Data Model Pasar Jagung, Pakan dan Daging Ayam Ras di Indonesia
The SAS System 18:40 Monday, March 17, 1997 1 SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model: PJI
Dependent variable: PJI produksi jagung
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Prob>F Model 8 114708648.28 14338581.035 203.627 0.0001 Error 16 1126653.9343 70415.87090
C Total 24 115835302.22
Root MSE 265.35989 R-Square 0.9903 Dep Mean 7497.84400 Adj R-SQ 0.9854 C.V. 3.53915
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard T for H0:
Variable DF Estimate Error Parameter=0 Prob > |T| INTERCEP 1 -165.584001 1556.416880 -0.106 0.9166 HJDR2 1 1.171603 0.822187 1.425 0.1734 LAJ 1 1.961529 0.254807 7.698 0.0001 HPKR 1 -0.418077 0.734914 -0.569 0.5773 WR 1 -0.023105 0.024968 -0.925 0.3685 SBR 1 -17.730325 7.179774 -2.469 0.0252 D 1 -384.247251 335.903603 -1.144 0.2695 T 1 117.044158 47.933608 2.442 0.0266 LPJI 1 0.007544 0.137829 0.055 0.9570 Variable Variable DF Label INTERCEP 1 Intercept HJDR2 1 (HJDR-LHJDR)
LAJ 1 luas areal panen jagung HPKR 1 harga riil pupuk WR 1 upah riil tenaga kerja SBR 1 suku bunga riil D 1 dummy krisis moneter T 1 trend waktu
LPJI 1 produksi jagung t-1
Durbin-Watson 2.883 (For Number of Obs.) 25 1st Order Autocorrelation -0.443
Lampiran 3. Lanjutan
The SAS System 18:40 Monday, March 17, 1997 2 SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model: DJP
Dependent variable: DJP permintaan jagung industri pakan Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Prob>F Model 4 6528482.5385 1632120.6346 17.647 0.0001 Error 20 1849712.0215 92485.60107
C Total 24 8378194.5600
Root MSE 304.11445 R-Square 0.7792 Dep Mean 2127.24000 Adj R-SQ 0.7351 C.V. 14.29620
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard T for H0:
Variable DF Estimate Error Parameter=0 Prob > |T| INTERCEP 1 2656.024664 1176.969466 2.257 0.0354 HJDR 1 -0.421298 0.459565 -0.917 0.3702 HPDR5 1 382.066740 396.171411 0.964 0.3464 HKDR2 1 -2450.436389 557.004996 -4.399 0.0003 LDJP 1 0.851733 0.106918 7.966 0.0001 Variable Variable DF Label INTERCEP 1 Intercept
HJDR 1 harga riil jagung domestik HPDR5 1 (LHPDR/LHJDR)
HKDR2 1 (HKDR/LHKDR)
LDJP 1 permintaan jagung industri pakan t-1
Durbin-Watson 2.336 (For Number of Obs.) 25 1st Order Autocorrelation -0.170
Lampiran 3. Lanjutan
The SAS System 18:40 Monday, March 17, 1997 3 SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model: HJDR
Dependent variable: HJDR harga riil jagung domestik
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Prob>F Model 4 398215.30546 99553.82637 14.072 0.0001 Error 20 141497.00607 7074.85030
C Total 24 539712.31153
Root MSE 84.11213 R-Square 0.7378 Dep Mean 1186.50664 Adj R-SQ 0.6854 C.V. 7.08906
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard T for H0:
Variable DF Estimate Error Parameter=0 Prob > |T| INTERCEP 1 359.225132 254.636051 1.411 0.1737 SJI1 1 -291.220701 116.898591 -2.491 0.0216 DJI 1 0.005213 0.019714 0.264 0.7942 HJWR 1 103.876745 159.438255 0.652 0.5221 LHJDR 1 0.888725 0.143513 6.193 0.0001 Variable Variable DF Label INTERCEP 1 Intercept SJI1 1 (SJI/LSJI)
DJI 1 permintaan jagung HJWR 1 harga riil jagung dunia LHJDR 1 harga riil jagung domesttk t-1
Durbin-Watson 1.173 (For Number of Obs.) 25 1st Order Autocorrelation 0.390
Lampiran 3. Lanjutan
The SAS System 18:40 Monday, March 17, 1997 4 SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model: MJI
Dependent variable: MJI impor jagung
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Prob>F Model 7 5878226.3023 839746.61461 16.327 0.0001 Error 17 874386.16661 51434.48039
C Total 24 6752612.4689
Root MSE 226.79171 R-Square 0.8705 Dep Mean 551.89280 Adj R-SQ 0.8172 C.V. 41.09344
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard T for H0:
Variable DF Estimate Error Parameter=0 Prob > |T| INTERCEP 1 -2159.828318 2548.017048 -0.848 0.4084 LHJDR 1 0.640130 0.498949 1.283 0.2167 HJWR 1 -306.015743 730.672883 -0.419 0.6806 NTR 1 -0.127085 0.045892 -2.769 0.0131 POP 1 0.012971 0.012969 1.000 0.3312 PDB2 1 291.048941 403.007853 0.722 0.4800 TJ1 1 -1.416229 50.767477 -0.028 0.9781 LMJI 1 0.372714 0.225965 1.649 0.1174 Variable Variable DF Label INTERCEP 1 Intercept
LHJDR 1 harga riil jagung domesttk t-1 HJWR 1 harga riil jagung dunia NTR 1 nilai tukar riil POP 1 populasi penduduk PDB2 1 (PDBR/LPDBR) TJ1 1 (LTJ-TJ)
LMJI 1 impor jagung t-1
Durbin-Watson 2.046 (For Number of Obs.) 25 1st Order Autocorrelation -0.031
Lampiran 3. Lanjutan
The SAS System 18:40 Monday, March 17, 1997 5 SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model: HJWR
Dependent variable: HJWR harga riil jagung dunia
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Prob>F Model 4 2.26499 0.56625 191.188 0.0001 Error 20 0.05923 0.00296
C Total 24 2.32422
Root MSE 0.05442 R-Square 0.9745 Dep Mean 0.44877 Adj R-SQ 0.9694 C.V. 12.12688
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard T for H0:
Variable DF Estimate Error Parameter=0 Prob > |T| INTERCEP 1 0.158596 0.152321 1.041 0.3102 XJW1 1 -0.086192 0.056010 -1.539 0.1395 MJW 1 0.000005407 0.000002574 2.101 0.0485 T 1 -0.019884 0.006696 -2.969 0.0076 LHJWR 1 0.519137 0.124604 4.166 0.0005 Variable Variable DF Label INTERCEP 1 Intercept XJW1 1 (XJW/LXJW)
MJW 1 impor jagung dunia T 1 trend waktu
LHJWR 1 harga riil jagung dunia t-1
Durbin-Watson 2.050 (For Number of Obs.) 25 1st Order Autocorrelation -0.099
Lampiran 3. Lanjutan
The SAS System 18:40 Monday, March 17, 1997 6 SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model: PPD
Dependent variable: PPD produksi pakan
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Prob>F Model 6 102735975.92 17122662.653 35.833 0.0001 Error 18 8601318.7204 477851.04002
C Total 24 111337294.64
Root MSE 691.26771 R-Square 0.9227 Dep Mean 2938.88000 Adj R-SQ 0.8970 C.V. 23.52147
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard T for H0:
Variable DF Estimate Error Parameter=0 Prob > |T| INTERCEP 1 2949.470118 2210.251154 1.334 0.1987 LHPDR 1 0.026483 0.859646 0.031 0.9758 LHJDR 1 -2.153431 1.753585 -1.228 0.2353 LHKIR 1 -372.017820 440.990970 -0.844 0.4100 LSBR 1 -14.013460 16.503308 -0.849 0.4070 T 1 97.611096 74.986067 1.302 0.2094 LPPD 1 0.648221 0.208910 3.103 0.0061 Variable Variable DF Label INTERCEP 1 Intercept
LHPDR 1 harga riil pakan ayam ras domestik t-1 LHJDR 1 harga riil jagung domesttk t-1
LHKIR 1 harga riil komponen impor t-1 LSBR 1 suku bunga riil t-1
T 1 trend waktu LPPD 1 produksi pakan t-1
Durbin-Watson 1.870 (For Number of Obs.) 25 1st Order Autocorrelation 0.062
Lampiran 3. Lanjutan
The SAS System 18:40 Monday, March 17, 1997 7 SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model: DPI
Dependent variable: DPI permintaan pakan ayam ras
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Prob>F Model 4 17227590.026 4306897.5065 88.539 0.0001 Error 20 972881.41380 48644.07069
C Total 24 18200471.440
Root MSE 220.55401 R-Square 0.9465 Dep Mean 1903.32000 Adj R-SQ 0.9359 C.V. 11.58786
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard T for H0:
Variable DF Estimate Error Parameter=0 Prob > |T| INTERCEP 1 -120.471675 553.249694 -0.218 0.8298 HPDR 1 -0.349539 0.176698 -1.978 0.0619 HDDR 1 0.117847 0.040120 2.937 0.0081 PA 1 0.002461 0.000431 5.711 0.0001 LDPI 1 0.325899 0.113356 2.875 0.0094 Variable Variable DF Label INTERCEP 1 Intercept
HPDR 1 harga riil pakan ayam ras domestik HDDR 1 harga riil daging ayam ras domestik PA 1 populasi ayam ras
LDPI 1 permintaan pakan ayam ras t-1
Durbin-Watson 1.557 (For Number of Obs.) 25 1st Order Autocorrelation 0.132
Lampiran 3. Lanjutan
The SAS System 18:40 Monday, March 17, 1997 8 SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model: HPDR
Dependent variable: HPDR harga riil pakan ayam ras domestik Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Prob>F Model 5 793560.05199 158712.01040 2.775 0.0479 Error 19 1086596.8429 57189.30752
C Total 24 1880156.8949
Root MSE 239.14286 R-Square 0.4221 Dep Mean 2060.69737 Adj R-SQ 0.2700 C.V. 11.60495
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard T for H0:
Variable DF Estimate Error Parameter=0 Prob > |T| INTERCEP 1 2987.553761 906.260747 3.297 0.0038 SPI1 1 -128.383428 136.578198 -0.940 0.3590 D 1 614.278855 224.815718 2.732 0.0132 T 1 -51.911479 34.388219 -1.510 0.1476 LHPDR 1 0.106664 0.203850 0.523 0.6069 Variable Variable DF Label INTERCEP 1 Intercept SPI1 1 (SPI/DPI)
D 1 dummy krisis moneter T 1 trend waktu
LHPDR 1 harga riil pakan ayam ras domestik t-1
Durbin-Watson 2.312 (For Number of Obs.) 25 1st Order Autocorrelation -0.193
Lampiran 3. Lanjutan
The SAS System 18:40 Monday, March 17, 1997 9 SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model: PDD
Dependent variable: PDD produksi daging ayam ras
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Prob>F Model 7 1590984.9033 227283.55761 77.743 0.0001 Error 17 49699.91405 2923.52436
C Total 24 1640684.8173
Root MSE 54.06963 R-Square 0.9697 Dep Mean 374.14680 Adj R-SQ 0.9572 C.V. 14.45145
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard T for H0:
Variable DF Estimate Error Parameter=0 Prob > |T| INTERCEP 1 -38.289540 30.902975 -1.239 0.2322 HDDR3 1 0.165130 0.274007 0.603 0.5547 HDOCR1 1 -0.015905 0.014255 -1.116 0.2800 HPDR1 1 -0.019706 0.047984 -0.411 0.6864 PA 1 0.000586 0.000123 4.774 0.0002 SBR2 1 -2.290469 3.002816 -0.763 0.4561 T 1 5.732866 4.212439 1.361 0.1913 LPDD 1 0.238137 0.151426 1.573 0.1342 Variable Variable DF Label INTERCEP 1 Intercept HDDR3 1 (HDDR/(HDDR-LHDDR)) HDOCR1 1 (HDOCR-LHDOCR) HPDR1 1 (HPDR-LHPDR) PA 1 populasi ayam ras SBR2 1 (SBR/LSBR) T 1 trend waktu
LPDD 1 produksi daging ayam ras t-1
Durbin-Watson 1.539 (For Number of Obs.) 25 1st Order Autocorrelation 0.154
Lampiran 3. Lanjutan
The SAS System 18:40 Monday, March 17, 1997 10 SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model: DDD
Dependent variable: DDD permintaan daging ayam ras
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Prob>F Model 7 905983.87596 129426.26799 50.308 0.0001 Error 17 43735.46184 2572.67423
C Total 24 949719.33780
Root MSE 50.72154 R-Square 0.9539 Dep Mean 340.34600 Adj R-SQ 0.9350 C.V. 14.90293
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard T for H0:
Variable DF Estimate Error Parameter=0 Prob > |T| INTERCEP 1 -342.567306 135.943505 -2.520 0.0220 LHDDR 1 -0.013649 0.009284 -1.470 0.1598 LHTR 1 0.018018 0.024406 0.738 0.4704 LHIR 1 0.037836 0.026245 1.442 0.1676 HSDR 1 0.012256 0.007609 1.611 0.1256 PPK 1 0.079196 0.051837 1.528 0.1450 D 1 -171.398868 57.971348 -2.957 0.0088 LDDD 1 0.536641 0.202760 2.647 0.0170 Variable Variable DF Label INTERCEP 1 Intercept
LHDDR 1 harga riil daging ayam ras domestik t-1 LHTR 1 harga riil telur t-1
LHIR 1 harga riil ikan t-1
HSDR 1 harga riil daging sapi domestik PPK 1 pendapatan per kapita
D 1 dummy krisis moneter
LDDD 1 permintaan daging ayam ras t-1