Macroeconomics : (uneployment, inflation & growth)

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Macroeconomics:

(Unemployment, Inflation, & Growth)

Book:

Michael Parkin. 2003.

Michael Parkin. 2003. Macroeconomics. Macroeconomics. Sixth Edition. Pearson Education. Sixth Edition. Pearson Education. Inc. USA.

Inc. USA.

William A. Mceachern.

William A. Mceachern. Makro Ekonomi; Pendekatan Kontemporer. Makro Ekonomi; Pendekatan Kontemporer. 2000. 2000. Salemba Empat Jakarta

Salemba Empat Jakarta Salemba Empat. Jakarta. Salemba Empat. Jakarta. Sadono Sukirno.

Sadono Sukirno. Makroekonomi; Teori Pengantar. Makroekonomi; Teori Pengantar. 2004. Edisi Ketiga. Pt. 2004. Edisi Ketiga. Pt. Raja Grafindo Persada. Jakarta.

Raja Grafindo Persada. Jakarta.

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UNEMPLOYMENT

L b

F

UNEMPLOYMENT

Labor Force

-

Those working/willing to work

Unemployed

-

Lose their job & search for another job

-

Leave their jobs & search for another job

j

-

Enter or reenter the labor force to search for

(3)

Measurement of Unemployment

Under 16

and/or

74,700,000

Not in

l b

institutionalized

71 400 000

Total

Population

labor

force

71,400,000

288,600,000

Employed

134,200,000

Employed

(4)

MEASUREMENT OF

UNEMPLOYMENT

Unemployment

t

unemployed

x

100

=

ra

te

labor force

x

100

(5)

(6)

T

f U

l

t

Types of Unemployment

Frictional Unemployment

Structural Unemployment

Cyclical Unemployment

Full-Employment Rate of Unemployment

(7)

GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE

Unemployment Rates 5 Industrial Nations 1992 - 2002

15

France

U K German

10

U.K. Germany

U.S. _Japan

5

0

Source: Economic Report of the President, 2003

1997

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INFLATION

Defined and Measurement

•

Is a process in which the price

•

Is a process in which the price

level is rising & money is

l

i

l

losing value

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TYPES OF I N FLATI ON

D EM AN D - PULL I N FLATI ON

Th a t in cr e a se a gr e ga t e de m a n d, su ch a s a n

•

Increase in the quntity of money

•

Increase in government

h

g

purchases

(10)

TYPES OF I N FLATI ON

COST- PUSH I N FLATI ON

•

Can result from any factor that

decreases agregate supply

I

i

•

Its main sources are increasing

wage rates and increasing prices

of key raw materials

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Consumer Price Index

Price of most recent market

=

x

100

CPI

Price of most recent market basket in the particular year

=

Price of the same market basket in 1982-1984

x

100

(12)

Measuring Inflation

=

CPI l

t

x

100

I n fla t ion

r a t e

(CPI this year – CPI last year)

(13)

ANTICIPATED INFLATION

=

+

6%

Inflation

=

11%

+

Premium

5%

Nominal

Interest

Real

Interest

Rate

(14)

ECONOMIC GROWTH

•

Improved Products and Services

•

Improved Products and Services

•

Added Leisure

•

Other Impacts

(15)

SUPPLY DETERMINANTS

OF REAL OUTPUT

•

Size of

employed

labor force

Labor

Inputs

labor force

•

Average hours

of work

REAL

(Hours

of Work)

•

Technological

advance

REAL

GDP

Labor

X

=

advance

•

Quantity of capital

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GROWTH IN THE AD-AS MODEL

C

AS

LR1

AS

LR2

A

C

AS

LR1

AS

LR2

A

G

oods

Level

Capital

G

Price

B

D

(17)

ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE

EXTENDED AD – AS MODEL

EXTENDED AD AS MODEL

AS

_LR1

AS

_LR2

AS

₂

AS

₁

c

e Level

Pri

c

P

₁

P

₂

AD

₂

AD

₁

Real GDP

o

Q

(18)

THE BUSINESS CYCLE

Phases of

the Business Cycle

PEAK

RECESSION

TROUGH

RECOVER

Y

activity

usiness

a

u

evel of b

Le

Ti

m

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Case Study & Group Discution:

Gunakan Teknologi Internet/ Text B k / j b t t b ik t i i

Book u/ mnjawab pertanyaan-pertanyaan berikut ini.

Unemployment:

¾ Sejauhmana pemerintah perlu menekan pengangguran? Apakah sampai pengangguran mencapai nol persen?

¾ Pengangguran yg bagaimanakah yg dapat ditolerir?

¾ Berapa persen pengangguran dari angkatan kerja yg dpt dianggap baik?

I nflation 1:

¾ Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) menggunakan 45 Kota utk mensurvai harga2, kota-kota manakah yg disurvai?

kota kota manakah yg disurvai?

¾ Berapa komoditas total produk yg disurvai?

¾ Dikelompokkan dlm berapa kategori, komoditas tsb?

(20)

Case Study & Group Discution:

Book u/ mnjawab pertanyaan-pertanyaan berikut ini.

I nflation 2:

¾ Inflasi dapat dikategorikan: Single digit inflation, Galloping Inflation dan Hyperinflation.

¾ Jelaskan mengenai inflasi tsb, penyebabnya, & bagaimana efek

¾ Jelaskan mengenai inflasi tsb, penyebabnya, & bagaimana efek thd kepercayaan orang pada uang negara tsb?

I nflation 3:

¾ Carilah data inflasi Indonesia dan beberapa negara utk

perbandingan. Data yg diinginkan minimal sejak tahun 2000 s.d 2005.

¾ Analisis besarnya inflasi Indonesia & perbandingkan dengan negara2 lain.

¾ Berikan komentar Anda terhadap data tsb?

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Case Study & Group Discution:

Book u/ mnjawab pertanyaan-pertanyaan berikut ini.

Produk Nominal & Riil:

¾

Carilah data PDB Indonesia: Nominal dan riil. Data dapat dimulai

sejak tahun 2000 s.d minimal 2005.

¾

Carilah nilai riil PDB dan pertumbuhan PDB Indonesia.

¾

Berikanlah komentar terhadap pertumbuhan PDB tsb, bila perlu

gunakanlah pembanding dari negara lainnya.

Ketentuan:

¾ Waktu utk mengerjakan + Diskusi kelompok maksimum 30 menit.

¾ Hasil kelompok dikirimkan via e-mail ke: [email protected].

¾ Setelah semua jawaban diterima, akan dilakukan pembahasan soal. j , p