ASSESSMENT OF NATIONAL ACTION PLAN FOR THE REDUCTION OF GHG FROM TRANSPORT SECTOR IN INDONESIA

+

Assessment of National Action Plan for the Reduction of

GHG from Transport Sector in Indonesia

Presented on:

The 3

rd

Travelling Conference of Asian-German Knowledge Network for

13 February 2017 UMY-UGM-MTI

NOOR MAHMUDAH (Dr.)

Senior Lecturer and Researcher, Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta

Secterary, The Indonesia Transportation Society (MTI/ITS) of DIY

Member, The Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies (EASTS)

Lecturer/Trainer, The Centre of Education and Training, Ministry of Public Works, the Government of Indonesia

DANANG PARIKESIT (Prof.)

Professor of Transportation and Senior Researcher, The Centre for Transportation and Logistics Studies, Universitas Gadjah Mada (UGM)

President/Chairman, The Indonesia Transportation Society (MTI/ITS)

Board of Director, The Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies (EASTS)

+

Outline

•

Indonesia in a glance

•

Indonesia

global commitment

in reducing GHG

emission from transport sector

•

Indonesia Transport

Challenges

: Paradox of high

economic growth

•

Study LPA

: simulating national policy and

visioning the future

•

Future policy change

: fundamental shift to more

stringent policy with consistent practice

+

Indonesia in a glance

•

The fourth largest country by population in the world

after China, India and USA with 243.740 million people

in 2011 and average growth rate of 1.4 percent from

2000-2010, which is 66.13 percent of the people are

15-64 years of age group. Average family size is 4-5

person In 2011, Indonesia reached 72.37 of HDI (

BPS,

2013

).

+

Indonesia in a glance (cont)

13 February 2017 UMY-UGM-MTI

•

In 2012, Indonesia is the biggest economy in ASEAN

region and 17

th

biggest in the world by GDP,

dominated by household expenditure (MGI, 2013,

BPS, 2013). Economy grew by average 5.2 percent per

year from 2000 to 2010 (MGI, 2012).

•

Java is as the economic center contributing 57.63

percent of GDP, which is dominated by secondary

and tertiary economic sector.

•

Indonesia now has 135 million middle income class

or equal to 60 percent of total population with

average income of USD 3.850 per capita (

BI, 2013

).

Unemployment rate continue to decrease to 6 percent

in 2012 from total 121 million work force (

BPS, 2013

),

+

2. Indonesia

global commitment

in

reducing GHG emission from transport

sector

▪

Unilateral reducing GHG emission

26% from BAU

scenario by 2020

or 41% with international support

▪

Presidential Decree No 61 Year 2011 on National

Action Plan on GHG Emission Reduction (

RAN GRK

)

▪

Transport Ministerial Regulation No 201 Year 2013 on

National Action Plan on GHG Emission Reduction in

Transport Sector employing

AVOID

–

SHIT

–

IMPROVE

approach

▪

Recently received

USD 14 Million international

support

from German and UK

+

3. Indonesia Transport Challenges:

P

aradox of High Economic Growth

▪

Rapid

motorization

and vehicle

ownership

▪

Diminishing share

of public transport

▪

Urbanization coexist with

inefficiency

▪

High consumption of

energy and fuel subsidy

+

Rapid Motorization and Vehicle Ownership

0 10 000 000 20 000 000 30 000 000 40 000 000 50 000 000 60 000 000 70 000 000 80 000 000 90 000 000

Passenger car Bus

Truck Motorcycle

50

100

150

200

250

300

Bus Truck

Passenger car Motorcycle

Growth of Vehicle number 2000-2011 Motor Vehicle Ownership 2000-2011

Source: Indonesian Central Statistic Agency, 2013

Shift from motorcycle to car due to increasing income

+

Diminishing Public Transport Share

Sourse: JAPTrapis 2011 Sourse: JUTPI, 2010

Change of Mode Share, 2002 - 2010

Mode Share by Income 2010

+

Coexistence of Urbanization and

Urban Inefficiency

City

Km/h

City

Km/h

Bandun

g

14.3

Surabaya

21

Bogor

15.32 Medan

23.4

Depok

21.4

Makassar

24.06

Bekasi

21.86 Semarang

27

Tangera

ng

22

Palembang 28.54

Bodetab

ek

20.12 Metro City

24.8

13 February 2017 UMY-UGM-MTI

+

High consumption of energy and

fuel subsidy

38%

Industry Transportation

Household Comercial

Other

Fuel Consumption by Sector, 2011

Source: MEMR, 2012

95% 3%

1% 1%

Land Transport Water Transport SME

Fishery

Subsidized Fuel Consumption by Sector 2010

+

4. Study LPA

simulating national action

plan and visioning future policy

▪

Development Policy:

NLTDP (RPJMN), EMP (MP3EI)

▪

Mitigation Action Plan:

NAP-GHG (RAN/RAD GRK)

▪

Visioning future policy

+

13 February 2017

+

13 February 2017

Possible Impact of RPJMN 2010-2014

Policies Possible effects

Economic growth 6.3 – 6.8% p.a - Increase of transport demand and activity

Development of urban public

services infrastructure.

- Increase urbanization, mobility demand,

efficiency, and reduce urban transport pollution

Development of 19,370 km of road,

inter-mode and inter-island infrastructure

- Increase connectivity, demand for based

transportation, inter-island people and goods transportation, and sea transport

Enhancementtransportation system

and network in Jakarta, Bandung, Surabaya, and Medan

- More efficient urban transport system

- Increase in urban mobility

Implementation of National

Multimode Transportation System

- Increase of transport efficiency

- Reduce transport fuel consumption

Urban electric railway transportation

development

- Increase in urban public transport trips

- More efficient commuting trips

Energy savings and alternative

fuel

- Demand for energy efficiency vehicle

- Decrease oil fuel consumption and increase

alternative fuel utilization

+

Possible impact of MP3EI 2010-2050

No Policies Possible effects

1 Promoting road infrastructure

construction

- Increase private vehicle population and

demand, and increase road based freight

2 Revitalization of passenger and

freight sea and river based

transportation

- Increase demand and volume of water

based transportation

3 Increasing and betterment of air

transportation

- Increase air transportation demand and

volume

4 Development of rail transportation - Increase rail based demand and volume

5 Reduction of cost for logistic

system

- Increase freight transport integration and

+

Possible Impact of RAN/RAD GRK

13 February 2017 UMY-UGM-MTI

No Policies Effects

1 Development and implementation of ITS - Better travel plan and fuel

efficiency,

2 Traffic Impact Control - Reduce congestion and emission

3 Congestion Charging and Road Pricing - Reduce private car usage,

congestion, and fuel consumption

4 Revitalization of public transport system - Increase of public transport share

and reduce private vehicle travel

5 Development of BRT system - Increase mode share of BRT, and

fuel efficiency

6 Development of NMT - Better NMT share and fuel

efficiency

7 Electrification of railway system - Increase rail passenger and shift

from private vehicle

8 Emission standardization, labeling and emission

based tax and

- Reduce fuel consumption and

emission

9 CNG converter kits - Reduce fuel consumption and CO2

emission

10 Eco driving and speed limitation - Reduce fuel consumption and

+

Improved RAN GRK Scenario

Business as Usual - BAU



Respecting current policy

taken by the government



Predicting impact of current

development and economic

policy: RPJMN, MP3EI



Elaborate scenario for current

policies



Considering dynamic in

policy implementation

Improve RAN GRK



Additional policy beyond RAN

GRK



Introduction of more AVOID

policy options



Advance vehicle technology



Fuel pricing and alternative

fuels



Road pricing and behavioral

+

13 February 2017 UMY-UGM-MTI

1. Scenario I BAU (RPJP/RPJMN+MP3EI)

+

2. Scenario II RAN GRK

+

13 February 2017 UMY-UGM-MTI

3. Scenario III IMPROVED RAN GRK

+

Scenarios Comparison

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

BAU(MP3EI) (A->S) 54,484 92,944 123,025 150,744 158,543 178,203 198,983 223,020 224,209 226,99

BAU(MP3EI) (S->A) 54,484 92,944 123,025 150,744 158,650 178,653 199,951 224,737 226,412 229,67

RAN GRK A+S+I (A->S) 54,484 92,944 123,025 151,069 132,990 122,673 135,845 149,527 149,645 151,45

RAN GRK A+S+I (S->A) 54,484 92,944 123,025 151,069 133,394 124,975 140,198 156,486 158,719 162,68

RAN GRK IMPROV A+S+I (A->S) 54,484 92,944 123,025 139,068 90,959 74,430 78,664 82,621 82,243 83,54

RAN GRK IMPROV A+S+I (S->A) 54,484 92,944 123,025 139,132 92,017 79,513 88,091 97,630 101,697 107,54

+

TESTING OF SCENARIO

EMISSION PER CAPITA

(Ton eCO2/per Capita-year)

CO- BENEFITS

Business as Usual

RAN GRK

Improved RAN GRK

16% by 2025

+

Scenarios Comparison

The analyses for scenario comparisons for total emission are as follow

1. Similar with the emission figure for per capita emission, the results from total

emission also show that IMPROVED RAN scenario have better performance

compared to RAN GRK .

2. The RAN GRK will reduce the total emission by about 25 Mton CO2 to about 132

Mton in 2025 compared to BAU. On the other hand, IMPROVED RAN scenario will

further reduce total CO2 emission by about 67 Mton to only 90 Mton by 2025.

3. The significant difference of results between A->S and S->A sequence for all three

(BAU, RAN & IMPROVED RAN) can be seen in 2050. Significant difference especially

can be seen in IMPROVED RAN scenario where the A->S sequence can reduce the

total emission down to 80 Mton (lower that 90 Mton in 2025). At the same time, the

S->A sequence cannot even hold the emission causing rebound of total emission to

+

Co

–

Benefit from policy improvement

▪

Transport policies devised GHG mitigation, transport

efficiency

, system

competitiveness

and

energy

consumption.

▪

Policy improvement will create co-benefit in energy

consumption (61% reduction)

congestion

relieve

(35%).

▪

Transport competitiveness, energy efficiency and

GHG emission reduction

will achieving global

commitment

as well as improving the economic and

local environmental condition

+

5. Visioning Future Policy

▪

Significant improvement is needed

to achieve

national commitment and meet global target

▪

Introduction of

various “avoid” policies

:

promotion of TOD, higher fuel pricing,

▪

Shift to more

advance vehicle technology

and

cleaner fuel

options

▪

Push policy

for transport behavioral changes:

road and higher fuel pricing.

▪

Capacity

building to

manage and safe guard

consistent policy implementation

+

Combination of transport

competitiveness

, energy

efficiency

and GHG

emission reduction

will

help the Indonesian

government

achieving

global

climate change

commitment

as well as

improving

the

economic

and local

environmental

condition

13 February 2017

Association’s corporate seat: Bremen I Management board: Prof. Dr. H.-D. Haasis (Chairman)

Dr. Irina Dovbischuk

Assistant Professor Management Board / Director

Asian-German Knowledge Network for Transport and Logistics (AGKN) e.V.

Wilhelm-Herbst-Straße 12 28359 Bremen

Phone +49 421 218 - 66766 eMail dovbischuk@agkn.de www www.agkn.de

Our Sign: Dov Date: 22.01.17

AGKN e.V. Wilhelm-Herbst-Str. 12 28359 Bremen

Invitation and support letter

Dear Sir or Madam,

The Asian-German Knowledge Network for Transport and Logistics e.V. organises the Third Travelling Conference to Asia with support of the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research. The travelling conferences has three stopovers - in Chi-na (2017-02-13), in South Korea (2017-02-15) and on the Philippines (2017-02-17). The Zhongyuan University of Technology is the host of the event in Zhengzhou, China on the 13rd of February 2017. We invite

Name : Ms. Noor Mahmudah Date of birth : October 3 1970

Profession : Civil Servant / Lecturer in Department of Civil Engineering Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta

Indonesia Passport No : A 7181774 Required visa valid for : Short visit visa Date of arrival: 12 February 2017 Date of departure : 14 February 2017

to make a speech in the framework of the conference in Zhengzhou, China.

The Asian-German Knowledge Network for Transport e.V. will reimburse - the economy return-ticket up to 400,- Euro and

- the accommodation expenses to max. 3 nights, 94,- Euro each.

Kind regards,

Dr. Irina Dovbischuk Chinese Embassy in Jakarta

Indonesia or

General Consular in Surabaya

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Collection( Merseburg University of Applied Science

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2.Deputy Director Lu _Qiuyi, Henan Supply Chain Management Association

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zl.Prof. Stefan Voss: Future Trends in Logistics: A

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Interconnection with Transport Networks(University

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2.Prof.Wang Dongyun,Vice president of Huanghuai

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4.Prof. Carsten Dorn: Load Securing in the lntermodal

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( List of Main Participants, in No Particular Order)

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Hans-Dietrich

Haasis NIM

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Chairman of the lnternational Craduate School for Dvnamics in

Logistics of Universitv of Bremen

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Chairman of Transportation and Logistics Department of Bremen

Haven Universitl, ofApplied Technology'

4 Carlos Jahn frtw

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Director of the Fraunhofer Center for Maritime Logistics and Services CML of Hamburg-Harburg University of Technology

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Professor of Ingolstadt University of Applied Technology

6 Dirk Sackmann H tvt ,.eEEnHt*4)-r*4k

Professor of Merseburg University of Applied Science

7 Guido Siestrup _fr tvt 1,+-EiE++EI4Rlr ++k{X- Professor of University of Furtwagen

8 Stefan Voss frtw

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Noor Mahmudah _xlF F,t+Hie il-x+

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pr of University of Muhammadiyah

l0 Holger Schi.itt Ftw i#tt-irt + krl )r-+ f"_+r.i*.

Professor of lnstitute of Transportation Economics & Logistics

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Liu Zhanguo frtw

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Director of Finance Department of Govemment Development

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Lu Qiuyi frtw

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Deputy Director of Henan Supply Chain Management Association

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Wang Dongyun Ftw

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Vice President of Huanshuai Llniversitv

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Du Jianhui *tP

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Vice President of Zhongyuan University'of Technologl'

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Director of Personnel Department of Zhongy'uan University of

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Wang Xiaolei H tr,l

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Fv"i.-Dean of School of Electronics & lnformation of Zhongyuan

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Liu Weiguang H trt

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Dean of School of Computer Science & Technolog,," of Zhongyuan

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Song Changming Fnl

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Dean of School of Science of Zhongyuan Universitl of

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Zhao Zhiquan H lr,l

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Zhang Wenyong H tvt

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Deputy Director of International Affairs Office of Zhongyuan

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Zhang Shuqin H trt

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Li Ziyao ktP

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Wang Haiquan frtw

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