D et er
r
en c e
D e t
e rre n
ce a
i
m
s t
o
p
e rsu
a
de th
e o
p
p
o
n
e n
t n
o
t t
o
i
n
i
t
i
a
te a
cti
o
n
.
W
e m
a
k
e th
e de m
a
n
d,
e x
p
l
a
i
n
th
e co
n
se q
u
e n
ce s o
f
a
ct
i
n
g,
a
n
d th
e n
w
a
i
t (
su
cce ss i
s m
e a
su
re d b y
w
h
e th
e r so
m
e th
i
n
g h
a
p
p
e n
s)
;
i
f
th
e o
p
p
o
n
e n
t “
cro
sse s th
e l
i
n
e ”
w
e ’
v
e dra
w
n
w
e t
a
k
e p
u
n
i
ti
v
e a
cti
o
n
.
D e t
e rre n
ce i
s co
n
se rv
a
ti
v
e :
i
t se e k
s to
p
ro
te ct
th
e st
a
t
u
s q
u
o
.
TH E C O N C EP T O F D ETER
R
EN C E
I
n
cl
a
ss w
e e x
a
m
i
n
e d w
h
a
t
di
p
l
o
m
a
cy
i
s a
n
d i
ts t
y
p
e s.
Th
ro
u
gh
th
e p
re v
i
o
u
s di
scu
ssi
o
n
,
h
u
m
a
n
a
n
d p
o
l
i
ti
c ca
p
a
b i
l
i
ty
se e n
a
s th
e m
a
i
n
p
l
a
y
e r i
n
ca
rri
e s-
o
u
t
di
p
l
o
m
a
cy
.
N o
w
w
e w
i
l
l
di
scu
ss o
n
de t
e rre n
ce a
s di
p
l
o
m
a
cy
m
e a
n
s.
W
i
th
q
u
o
te d th
e w
o
rds f
ro
m
C a
rl
V o
n
C l
a
u
se w
i
tz,
a
m
i
l
i
ta
ry
stra
te gi
st a
n
d th
e o
ri
st
:
"
W
a
r i
s th
e si
m
p
l
e co
n
t
i
n
u
a
ti
o
n
o
f
di
p
l
o
m
a
cy
b y
o
th
er m
e a
n
s"
.
O n
th
e w
o
rds,
C a
rl
V o
n
C l
a
u
se w
i
tz e m
p
h
a
si
ze d t
h
a
t w
a
r i
s n
o
t o
n
l
y
a
s a
n
a
ct
o
r i
n
p
o
l
i
ti
c,
th
u
s a
s th
e
i
n
stru
m
e n
t
i
n
p
o
l
i
ti
c.
W
a
r co
u
l
d i
n
f
l
u
e n
ce p
o
l
i
ti
c de ci
si
o
n
m
a
k
i
n
g.
N o
w
a
da
y
s,
W
M D m
i
gh
t b e u
se d a
s a
n
o
t
h
e r di
p
l
o
m
a
ti
c
m
e a
n
s to
a
ch
i
e v
e o
n
e co
u
n
try
'
s go
a
l
s.
D e t
e rre n
ce i
s si
gn
i
f
i
ca
n
t
th
e o
ry
i
n
S tra
te gi
c S t
u
di
e s a
n
d i
n
I
n
te rn
a
ti
o
n
a
l
R
e l
a
ti
o
n
s a
s w
e l
l
.
S i
n
ce t
h
e a
ge o
f
C o
l
d W
a
r,
ch
i
e f
l
y
o
n
C u
b a
n
M i
ssi
l
e C ri
si
s e v
e n
t
,
de te rre n
ce h
a
s b e e n
v
i
e w
e d a
n
d u
se d
a
s th
e gre a
te st
m
e di
a
t
o
r to
a
tte m
p
t
i
n
f
l
u
e n
ce th
e de ci
si
o
n
m
a
k
i
n
g o
f
th
e sta
te s.
D e t
e rre n
ce ca
n
b e ci
p
h
e re d a
s so
ci
a
l
a
n
d p
o
l
i
ti
c re l
a
t
i
o
n
s p
ri
m
a
ri
l
y
e n
a
b l
e o
n
e p
a
rty
i
n
i
n
f
l
u
e n
ci
n
g th
e
o
th
e r p
a
rty
a
cti
o
n
.
D e t
e rre n
ce i
s i
m
p
l
e m
e n
t
e d a
n
d e x
e cu
te d to
e n
su
re i
ts o
p
p
o
n
e n
t
s a
b i
de b y
i
ts w
i
l
l
.
O n
th
e o
th
e r w
o
rds,
de t
e rre n
ce i
s a
b e l
i
e f
o
n
stra
te gi
c ca
p
a
b i
l
i
ty
to
a
v
o
i
d o
r p
re v
e n
t i
tse l
f
f
ro
m
b e i
n
g
a
tta
ck
e d b y
i
ts o
p
p
o
n
e n
ts -
t
h
e o
p
p
o
n
e n
ts b e l
i
e v
e th
a
t i
t
i
s n
o
t w
o
rt
h
t
o
ta
k
e a
m
i
l
i
t
a
ry
a
cti
o
n
o
n
t
h
e
NUF I E A R D E T E R R E NF E
B MlMnc e of T error inQ olQ e s POe pres enc e of s e Q erMl Q ery p oR erful s PMPes (Nuc leMr poR ers R iPO POeir
oQ er-k ill c Mp M c iPies ) eMc O o f R Oic O is c Mp M Nle of des Pro y ing POe oPOer Mn d POerefore eMc O feMrs POe oPOer.
T Oere is muPuMl feMr M nd dis Prus P in inPernMPionMl re lMPions . E Mc O s PM Pe k eeps on inc reMs i ng i Ps p oR er
Mnd y eP is noP prepMred Po g o Po R Mr for fulfilling i Ps d es ired g oMls or oNjec PiQ es .
Hn POe nuc leMr Mg e, M B MlMnce of T error c Mme Po replMc e POe NMlMnc e of poRer in inPernMPionMl relMPions .
T Oe nuc leMr nMPions OMQe Neen keeping in plMc e POeir n-ReMpon prog rM mmes . B ePReen 1E4D-E0, NoPO POe US A
& POe US S R , des piPe s ome Mg reemenPs , kepP-up POeir nuc leMr RMrOeMd mis s iles .
B oPO res urrec Ped POeir rig OP Po PrMns form POe mulPi-RMr OeMd nuc leMr mis s iles s ys Pems inPo M s imple RMrOeMd
mis s ile s ys Pem. T Oe nuc leMr Mnd s PrMPeg ic Mrms rMc e g M Qe ris e Po M s iPuMPion ROic O inQolQed M s orP of NMlMnc e of
Perror. T Oe oQer-kill c MpMc iPies of POe nucleMr poRers Mnd POeir MNiliPy Po des Proy eMc O oPOer forc ed POem Po
mMinPMin M NMlMnc e in POeir poRer relMPions . T Ois NMlMnc e RMs differenP from POe PrMdiPionMl NMlMnc e of poRer.
W Oile under NMlMnc e of NMlMnc e POe s PMPes c ould go Po RMr for pres erQing POe NMlMnc e, under NMlMnc e of Perror
no s PMPe c ould reMlly POink of g oing Po RMr. B ec Mus e M RMr noR meMnP M nuc leMr RMr. T Oey Re re noP prepM red
Po ris k M RMr. T Oe pres enc e of lMrge s Poc kpiles of nuc leMr ReMpons in POe nuc leMr s PMPes kepP inPMc P POe
pos s iNiliPy of M PoPMlly des Pruc Pion nuc leMr RMr. B uP MP POe s Mme Pime POe nuc leMr ReMpons Mc Ped Ms M dePerrenP
Mg Mins P RMr. Hn-fMc P POe pres enc e of NMlMnc e of Perror Mnd nuc leMr dePerrenc e c Mme Po c OMrMc Periz e inPernMPionMl
relMPions of nuc leMr Mg e.
W O M P i s B M l M n c e o f T e r r o r ?
A K F Org Mns ki RriPes , “T Oe B MlMnc e of T error or MuPuMl D ePerrenc e meMns s imply ROe re PRo (or more) oppos ing nMPions Mre s uffic ienPly frig OPened of one MnoPOer POMP neiPOer is Rilling Po ris k Mny Mc Pion POMP Rould
proQoke M miliPMry MPPMc k Ny POe oPOer. MuPuMl dePerre nc e is s Mid Po Ne c Mus ed Ny POe fMc P POMP eMc O s ide
pos s es s es nuc leMr ReMpons in s ufficienP quMnPiPy Po inflic P unMc c epPMNle dMmMg e upon POe oPOer eQen MfPer
OMQing MNs orNed M s urpris e MPPMc k. T Oerefore, no Mg g res s or c Mn Oope Po es c Mpe punis OmenP. HP is POe feMr of
nuc leMr punis OmenP POMP Mc Ps Ms M dePerrenc e.”
Hn oPOer Rords , B MlMnc e of T error inQolQes POe pres enc e of s eQerMl Qery poRe rful s PMPes (Nuc leMr poRers RiPO
POeir oQer-kill c MpMc iPies ) eMc O of ROic O is c MpMNle of des Proying POe oPOer Mnd POerefore eMc O feMrs POe oPOer.
Hn POe NMlMnc e of Perror, pe Mc e remMins inPMc P NuP only in Mn enQironmenP c OMrMc Peris ed Ny muPuMl feMr Mnd
Perror. P eMc e under POe s OM doR of RMr Mnd Perror c Mn Ne leg iPimMPely des c riNed noP Ms M reMl peMc e NuP Ms
peMc e Ms POe produc P of NMlMnc e of Perror.
Hn POe pos P-1E4D period, POe pres enc e of PRo s uper N-poRers , plus POree N- poRers , MrmM menP rMc e, nuc leMr
MrmM menP rMc e, M s iPuMPion of muPuMlly Ms s ured des Pruc Pion, c onPinuous pres ence of M POreMP of M PoPMlly
des Pruc PiQe N-RMr, pres enc e of peMc e in POe s OMdoR of RMr, feMr, dis Prus P, Perror Mnd s PrMins g enerMPed Ny POe
nuc leMr Mg e, Mll c omNined Po g iQe ris e Po M NMlMnc e of Perror in inPernMPionMl relMPions .
F A S E S T UD K OF NUF I E A R D E T E R R E NF E D UR HNG F OI D W A R
Nuc leMr D ePerrenc e
F or M Pime MfPer W orld W Mr HH, A meric M Oeld POe upper OMnd RiPO reg Mrds Po nuc leMr s uperioriPy. HP us ed POis
POreMP of "mMs s iQe rePMliMPion" Ms M meMns Po dePer S oQieP Mg g res s ion. B y POe lMPe 1ED0s , POe S oQieP Union OMd
NuilP up M c onQinc ing nuc leMr Mrs enMl POMP c ould Ne deliQe red on POe PerriPory of POe UniPed S PMPes Mnd W es Pern
E urope.
B y POe mid-1E60s , unilMPerMl dePerrenc e g MQe RMy Po "muPuMl dePerrenc e," M s iPuMPion of s PrMPeg ic s PMlemMPe.
T Oe s uperpoRe rs Rould re frMin from MPPMc king eMc O oPOer Nec Mus e of POe c erPMinPy of muPuMl Ms s ured
des Pruc Pion, NePPer knoRn Ms MA D . T Ois POeory is s Pill M mMjor pMrP of POe defens e policies of POe UniPed S PMPes
Mnd R us s iM.
T Ois led Po POe foundMPion of POe nuc leMr PriMd, or us e of POree differenP Pypes of deliQery s ys Pems (NomNers ,
mis s iles , Mnd s uNmMrines ) Po Ms s ure POMP M s ec ond-s Prike c MpMNiliPy exis Ped MNle Po c Mus e mMs s iQe des Pruc Pion
Po POe MPPMc king nMPion.
B oPO POe S PrMPeg ic A rms I imiPMPion T reMPy (S A I T ) Mnd S PrMPeg ic A rms R educ Pion T reMPy (S T A R T ) PreMPies Mll
reflec Ped MPPempPs Ny POe s uperpoRers Po mMnMg e s PrMPeg ic nuc leMr deQelopmenPs in s uc O M RMy Ms Po s PMNiliz e
muPuMl dePerre nc e.
B Mllis Pic mis s ile defens es Rere ouPlMRed; "firs P s Prike" ReMpons Rere dec ommis s ioned; c iQil defens e RMs
dis c ourMg ed. HoReQer, neiPOer POe U.S . nor POe S oQieP Union RMs c omforPMNle NMs ing POeir c ounPry's defens e
T Oe U.S . OMs explored QMrious Nuc leMr Us e T Oeories (NUT s ) s uc O Ms "c ounPerforc e", "c ounPerQMiling " or
"flexiNle res pons e." HoReQer, POe s PMPus quo of MA D remMins . F urrenP Mrms c onProl efforPs Mre Mimed MP finding
M minimum leQel of muPuMl M s s ured des Pruc Pion
F rom Nuc leMr Po F y N er: D ePerrenc e for M Modern W o rld
Hn dePerrenc e POeory, POe oNjec PiQe is Po eliminMPe MPPMc ks Ny mMking c os Ps Mnd c ons equenc es ouPReigO
NenefiPs .
T Oere Mre PRo pMrPs Po imple menPing POis s PrMPeg y.
T Oe firs P is Po OMQe M s Prong defens e; if M c ounPry’s defens e is s uffic ienP Po mMke Mn MPPMc k exc eeding ly diffic ulP,
Mn MPPMc ker mig OP c Ooos e Po s PMnd doRn. Hn POe c yNer re Mlm, POis g oMl is M prMc Pic Ml s oluPion Po POe mMjoriPy of
MPPMc ks .
T Oe s ec ond pMrP is foc us ed on rePMliMPion. Hf s ome s uc c es s ful MPPMc kers fMc e s eQere rePriNuPion folloRing POeir
Mc Pions , oPOer Ms pirMnPs mMy c Ooos e noP Po MPPMc k MP Mll.
I Mc king from PrMdiPionMl dePerrenc e POeory is POe proNlem of idenPifying POe s ourc e of Mn MPPMc k. Hn POe c yNer
reMlm, POis c OMlleng e looms lMrge Ms Mn oNs PMc le Po inPellig enP rePMliMPion, s inc e POe nMPure of POe digiPMl domMin
lends iPs elf Po MnonymiPy. T Oerefore, POis inProduc es M POird c omponenP of c yNer dePerrenc e: MPPriNuPion.
T Ois s ug g es Ps M POree-prong ed MpproMc O, RiPO Mn unders PMnding POMP res pons es Rill QMry NePReen s PMPe Mnd
non-s PMPe Mc Pors . Hn order Po limiP POe s c ope of our MnMlys is , Re Rill foc us on c ounPries s uc O Ms POe U.S . ROere
poRer relMPiQe Po one’s opponenP is noP M s erious c onc ern. T Oe prong s of POe MpproMc O Mre Ms folloRs :
D efens e – A poRe rful c yNer defens e is POe firs P s Pep in proPec Ping Mg Mins P POe QMs P mMjoriPy of
Mg g res s ors Mnd dis s uMding s ome from MPPMc king MP Mll.
A PPriNuPio n – T Oe MNiliPy Po MPPriNuPe Mn MPPMc k Po M s pec ific s ourc e is imporPMnP for mMinPMining
c rediNiliPy Mnd ens uring leg iPimMc y MP Oome Mnd MNroMd.
R ePMliMPio n – T Oe Rilling nes s Mnd c MpMNiliPy Po rePMliMPe Mg Mins P Mny (NuP noP nec es s Mrily eQe ry) MPPMc k
