Market Review
IHSG (-0.56%) melemah menjelang akhir pekan sebesar 36.39 poin kelevel
6501.38 meskipun masih bertahan diatas level psikologis 6500. Pergerakan
pelemahan terjadi sejak awal sesi perdagangan dengan dibuka -0.12% dan
sempat melemah hingga -0.86%. Sektor Industri Dasar (-1.66%) lagi-lagi
menjadi penekan pergerakan sejak awal sesi perdagangan diiringi dengan
pelemahan sektor property (-0.86%). Saham-saham peternakan dan produsen
semen menjadi pemicunya. Investor asing tercatat net sell 115.01 miliar
rupiah seiring pelemahan rupiah kelevel Rp14.079 per USD.
Leader:
UNTR, BNII, SQMI, CLAY, GIAA
Laggard:
BMRI, CPIN, HMSP, BBNI, ASII
Secara teknikal IHSG bertahan pada area support MA20 dan indikasi menguat
masih cukup berpeluang dengan potensi menguji resistance 6600. Indikator
Stochastic mencapai masih bergerak positif mendekati area overbought.
Sehingga diperkirakan IHSG cenderung menguat dengan rentang pergerakan
6500-6600. Saham-saham yang masih dapat dicermati diantaranya JPFA, KLBF,
BBTN, MAPI.
Bursa saham Asia pagi ini dibuka dengan penguatan pada saham-saham
Jepang. Indeks Nikkei (+0.68%) dan TOPIX (+0.69%) gap up dan akan menjadi
trigger positif mayoritas indeks saham di Asia awal pekan ini. Pernyataan
Trump yang akan menunda batas waktu 1 Maret untuk tarif AS yang lebih
tinggi pada barang-barang import China senilai $200 miliar menjadi katalis
optimisasi Investor diawal pekan seiring kenaikan Yuan sejak pertengahan
bulan Februari tahuh ini. Harga minyak WTI bertahan sekitaran $57 perbarrel
setelah pemotongan OPEC dan sanksi terhadap Iran dan Venezuela membuat
stock persediaan minyak global menurun.
Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan
Analisis
:
•
Candlestick
membentuk
pola
tweezers bottom dengan indikasi
whipsaw MA20. Pergerakan harga
berpotensi menguji resistance.
•
Stop-loss
jika
harga
saham
terkonfirmasi break out support
MA20
•
Indikator
stochastic
mendekati
area jenuh jual dengan RSI yang
bullish reversal momentum.
•
Support
: 940-985
•
Resistance
: 1030-1080
•
Stop-loss
: 995
•
Target Price
: 1080
SPECULATIVE BUY
MAPI
Analisis
:
•
Whipsaw support dengan indikasi
menguat menuji MA50 dan MA20.
•
Stop-loss jika harga saham break
out support
•
Indikator Stochastic bergerak pada
momentum
positif
mendekati
oversold.
•
Support
: 2430-2530
•
Resistance
: 2680-2820
•
Stop-loss
: 2500
•
Target Price
: 2680-2820
SPECULATIVE BUY
Analisis
:
•
Candlestick membentuk shooting
star dengan indikasi pulled back
bearish
trend
line.
Indikasi
melemah menguji support.
•
Stop-loss
jika
harga
saham
terkonfirmasi break out support
•
Indikator stochastic bergerak pada
area overbought dengan indikasi
dead-cross.
•
Support
: 1310-1400
•
Resistance
: 1500-1570
•
Stop-loss
: 1380
•
Target Price
: 1300
PARTIAL SELL
ADRO
Analisis
:
•
Mengkonfirmasi
Pola
candlestick
membentuk Bullish meeting line
dengan indikasi rebound pada area
support dengan potensi menguji
resistance.
•
Stop-loss jika break out support
•
Indikator Stochastic bergerak pada
area oversold dengan pola
golden-cross dan RSI yang mulai terlihat
bullish reversal momentum.
•
Support
: 2090-2270
•
Resistance
: 2590-2850
SPECULATIVE BUY
LS-27 Index
Legend :
B: BUY (allocate till 100% of the weighted capital to accumulate, higher than 50% upside probability)
SB: SPECULATIVE BUY (allocate 25%-50% of the weighted capital to accumulate, 25%-50% upside probability)
W: WAIT (wait for proper entry level, do the stop-loss if necessary)
H: HOLD (hold the portfolio position, aim for the best price to distribute)
PS: PARTIAL SELL (distribute 25%-50% part of the portfolio, 25%-50% downside probability)
S: SELL (distribute till 100% of the portfolio, higher than 50% downside probability)
TB: TRADING BUY (short term or intraday trading within a tight trading range. Highly speculative).
Analyst Conclusions:
The Index has reached the wave 3.
Support
Support
Resist ance
Resist ance
2
1
1
2
Agricult ure
TBLA
810
885
880
955
1,030
Consolidations
SB
880
955
AALI
12,750
13,575
13,600
14,350
15,000
Bullish momentum
SB
13,500
14,350
SSMS
1,050
1,115
1,130
1,180
2,250
Consolidations
W
1,100
Basic Indust ry
TKIM
9,325
10,900
11,500
12,350
14,150
Consolidations
B
11,200
12,700
INKP
10,700
11,700
12,175
13,000
14,440
Consolidations
B
10,600
13,000
CPIN
6,700
7,200
7,175
8,000
8,850
Whipsaw MA50
SB
7,100
8,000
Consumer
GGRM
77,000
80,800
81,775
84,500
88,000
False break upper bound
PS
83,500
HOKI
580
620
640
675
720
Oversold
W
600
ICBP
9,800
10,450
10,400
11,400
12,300
Consolidations
TB
10,400
11,400
UNVR
47,100
49,000
49,500
51,400
53,000
Stoch golden-cross
H
48,800
51,400
Finance
BBRI
3,550
3,750
3,900
3,940
4,100
Bearish engulfing
PS
3,850
BBNI
8,200
8,650
8,725
9,100
9,525
Consolidations
W
8,600
BBCA
25,800
26,800
27,450
28,275
29,750
Bullish momentum
B
27,000
28,275
Infrast ruct ure
TOWR
750
770
810
850
910
Consolidations
PS
840
PGAS
2,250
2,410
2,650
2,600
2,720
Consolidations
H
2,500
2,600
Misc. Indust ry
SRIL
300
322
334
340
350
Stoch golden-cross
TB
330
350
ASII
7,500
7,800
7,625
8,100
8,500
Bullish kicker signal
SB
7,700
8,100
Mining
PTBA
3,870
4,170
4,130
4,500
4,740
Break out resistance
SB
4,160
4,500
ITMG
19,350
20,500
23,650
22,000
23,000
Stoch golden-cross
SB
21,000
22,000
ADRO
1,130
1,215
1,410
1,310
1,400
Stoch golden-cross
B
1,250
1,400
Propert y
LPCK
2,300
2,400
2,670
2,650
2,880
Rebounded at MA20
SB
2,500
2,850
WSKT
1,515
1,680
1,830
1,850
2,070
Bullish harami confirmations
TB
1,750
1,850
PWON
595
625
625
660
700
Consolidations
W
620
Trading
UNTR
24,000
25,425
27,950
27,000
28,500
Break out MA20
H
25,400
27,000
SCMA
1,600
1,700
1,750
1,800
1,900
Break out MA5
TB
1,780
1,900
LPPF
4,890
5,325
5,775
6,000
7,000
Break out support
W
5,300
ERAA
1,875
2,100
2,090
2,400
2,670
Break out resistance
SB
2,080
2,320
Equity Technical Analyst: Lanjar Nafi, lanjar@reliancesekuritas.com
Disclaimer on
St op-loss
Target
Price
Monday, 25 February 2019
Equity Technical Indicator
Re sistance P rice Sup p o rt We e kly We e kly
Fractal 22/02/2019 Fractal Hig h Lo w RSI B. Band 20 Days 50 Days 200 Days
Equity Technical Indicator
Re sistance P rice Sup p o rt We e kly We e kly
Fractal 22/02/2019 Fractal Hig h Lo w RSI B. Band 20 Days 50 Days 200 Days
PN BN .JK 1,450 1,610 1,315 1,645 1,580 Neutral Bullish Overbought Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
PTBA.JK 4,470 4,130 3,930 4,240 4,040 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Under
PTPP.JK 2,220 2,020 1,995 2,220 2,080 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Upper
PWON .JK 665 625 635 665 640 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Upper
RALS.JK 1,825 1,680 1,615 1,815 1,740 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Upper Upper
ROTI.JK 1,240 1,200 1,190 1,210 1,200 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Upper
SCMA.JK 1,855 1,750 1,705 1,855 1,780 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Under
SGRO.JK 2,350 2,340 2,220 2,350 2,290 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Under Under
SIDO.jk 840 990 800 1,000 830 Overbought Bullish Overbought Upper Bands Upper Upper Upper
SILO.JK 4,150 3,550 3,430 3,700 3,580 Oversold Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Under
SIMP.JK 530 496 486 505 498 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Upper Under
SMBR.JK 1,680 1,580 1,505 1,585 1,520 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Under Under
SMCB.JK 2,040 2,010 2,000 2,030 2,010 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
SMGR.JK 12,775 12,575 11,925 13,025 12,675 Overbought Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Upper Upper
SMRA.JK 990 980 865 990 895 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
SRIL.JK 350 334 332 342 338 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Under
SSMS.JK 1,200 1,130 1,105 1,165 1,140 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Under
TBIG.JK 4,680 4,200 4,460 4,680 4,440 Neutral Bearish Neutral Lower Bands Under Under Upper
TBLA.JK 990 880 845 905 895 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Upper
TIN S.JK 1,615 1,550 1,270 1,615 1,545 Neutral Bearish Overbought Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
TKIM.JK 11,800 11,500 11,200 11,800 11,575 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Under
TLKM.JK 3,940 3,840 3,730 3,940 3,870 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Upper Upper
TOTL.JK 650 625 615 630 625 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
TOWR.JK 865 810 805 845 825 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Upper Upper
TPIA.JK 5,700 5,550 5,350 5,600 5,425 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Upper
ULTJ.JK 1,270 1,230 1,200 1,245 1,215 Neutral Bullish Neutral Upper Bands Upper Upper Upper
UN TR.JK 26,775 27,950 24,250 28,000 26,225 Overbought Bearish Neutral Upper Bands Upper Upper Under
UN V R.JK 50,125 49,500 47,925 50,125 49,600 Overbought Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
WEGE.JK 342 308 292 334 320 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
WIKA.JK 1,945 1,730 1,635 1,765 1,690 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Upper
WOOD.JK 735 815 695 835 715 Neutral Bullish Overbought Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
WSBP.JK 420 380 368 390 380 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Upper
WSKT.JK 2,040 1,830 1,745 1,875 1,790 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Under
Source : Reliance Research
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