URBANIZATION
AND THE NEED FOR A
NATIONAL URBAN POLICY
Wicaksono Sarosa
Outline
►
Understanding Urbanization
–
in general
and in Indonesia
►
The Need for “Better Quality
Urbanization”
►
Challenges in Managing Urbanization
►
The Need for [More Coherent] National
Understanding Urbanization
Causes of urbanization:
• Rural to urban migration (temporary, circular or permanent)
• Urban area expansion (urbanizing rural areas)
• Natural births in urban areas
URBANIZATION
or the increasing percentage of people living in urban areas
► It is an inevitable phenomenon until it reaches the “urbanization equilibrium” – we can try to
“mitigate” urbanization by improving infrastructure, facilities and services in rural areas, but
some people will still move to urban areas
► People moves to the city to find a better life. It’s the people’s rights to seek for a better life. ► It can have bad consequences [increasing and unmet demand for housing, infrastructure,
facilities, services in urban areas], but urbanization also offers lots of opportunities
Understanding Urbanization
Source: Chen M, Zhang H, Liu W, Zhang W (2014) The Global Pattern of Urbanization and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Three Decades. PLoS ONE 9(8): e103799. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0103799
[http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0103799]
Notes:
• And while urbanization and per capita GDP may be strongly correlated, the cause and effect analysis is more complicated and not as clear-cut.
• Fast urban growth doesn’t always
Understanding Urbanization in Indonesia
More than 50% population in Indonesia are now living in urban areas (cities, towns, suburban) compared to rural areas.
Source: Bappenas, BPS, UNFPA, n.d.
With more people living in urban areas than those living in rural areas,
statistically, Indonesia is already an
“urban nation”
-- But, are we really “there” yet?
The increasing level of urbanization is
often followed by decreasing quality of life [both in urban as well as rural areas].
-- But, is it prospering [making people more proseperous]?
Some policies prevent people from migrating (to the city or town) [often
ironically named as “Operasi Yustisi”
despite contravening the sense of justice.
Understanding Urbanization in Indonesia
Tingkat Urbanisasi (%)
Malaysia Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Tiongkok
Source: Sarosa (forthcoming), Memahami Kota dan Urbanisasi: Menuju Transformasi Perkotaan yang Menyejahterakan, Jakarta: Expose [data were processed from United Nation-Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN-DESA). (2016). The 2014 Revision of World Urbanization Prospects. https://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/ (accessed 29/8/2016) and World Bank. (2016). World Bank Open Data. http://data.worldbank.org(accessed 29/8/2016)]
Notes:
Urbanization in Indonesia can be
seen as less “welfare-improving” [represented by increase of
Understanding Urbanization in Indonesia
Challenges and opportunities in making Indonesian urbanization welfare-improving
Indonesia Population by Age in 2014
Source: BPS. 2015.
There are at least four ongoing
transformations in Indonesia that can influence (in both positive and negative senses) the way we manage cities and urbanization
Demographic dividend, the increasing number/proportion of people in working/ productive ages
Understanding Urbanization in Indonesia
“The urbanization of poverty” phenomenon:
• From rural poor becomes urban poor
• Urbanization does not bring significant improvement of welfare [much less quality of life] for the majority of the transforming people [There are of course a smaller number of people who have been able to improve their welfare as they urbanize]
• Cities tend to be unprepared to accommodate and manage the increasingly large number of population.
• Urban infrastructure and basic services could not meet the increasing demand (widening infrastructure gap/deficit)
Understanding Urbanization in Indonesia
Courtesy of kompas/wisnu widiantoro Courtesy of dinalistiorini.wordpress.com
More than just economic prosperity: Have we been
transformed from rural to urban society yet? Are we “lost in translation” or is this a “natural phase” in the
• Now that we know and acknowledge that urbanization is inevitable, we have to make the “best
use” of this phenomenon for the improvement of people’s welfare – both in urban and rural
areas
• “Mitigation” by improving the quality of live in the rural villages is good but not enough [many
young people will still be moving to cities]. We need to improve “the quality of urbanization”...
“Poor Quality” Urbanization “Good Quality” Urbanization
o Many lost opportunities (poverty reduction, welfare
improvement, economic growth, qualified labor force,
environmental degradation) because of not having a more coherent urbanization policies, in national and local level.
o If it is not managed well, urbanization will not bring positive
impact to many people as much as ‘the few’ who have access and power marginalization of those powerless
o If managed well, urbanization can be a driver for development
[and even, environmental protection]
But, how?
o Many/most cities do not have enough capacity to accommodate and
serve their current population, much less the incoming migrants…
o Many/most city governments do not have any clear and coherent
idea/policy of what should be done with urbanization in general [One
example being what to do with the growing urban informal economic
activities: accommodate or evict them?]…
o National government supports have not been well coordinated…
o …..
The challenges in making urbanization in Indonesia more welfare-improving can be categorized into three different types of challenges:
Paradigmatic
Challenges that relate to systems/regulations/institutions:
• Conflicting policies and regulations
• Lack of institutional supports – to help improve the capacity of local governments and communities to deal with urbanization
• Lack of coherent national policies…
Challenges that are related to the lack of understanding and/or misconception regarding the situation
• “urbanization is bad and therefore should be prevented..”
• “develop the village, so people will not move to the city..”
Challenges that are practical or technical in nature:
• Technical and managerial capacity of the stakeholders to deal with urbanization
• Other technical/practical matters
National Urban Policy
o There have been at least three attempts to develop National Urban
Policies and Strategies.
o The first two (called NUDS – National Urban Development
Strategies, in the 1980s and revised in early 2000s) were situated in a centralized governing environment, while the last one (the
KSPPN – Kebijakan dan Strategi Pembangunan Perkotaan
Nasional) has been meant to be implemented in a more challenging decentralized and democratic governing environment
o All of them however were limited in their legal standing (the first two
were only ministerial decrees, while the last one has been meant to be a Government Regulation but has not gone anywhere in the past three years due to the lack of political supports as well as the
KSPPN
Source: Bappenas, 2016
• Current status: -- not clear
• Six main policies (as of 2014):
1. To create national urban system 2. To establish urban services
3. To implement urban development in accordance to its carrying capacity, responsive and adaptive to climate change and disaster
4. To provide livable and adequate housing
5. To establish urban competitiveness 6. To manage transparent, accountable,
But, What Kind of National Urban Policy?
Scenario 1:
with no national urban policy
Cities will do as they pleased but also face problems on their-own; national resources may be wasted;
People theoretically can move as they pleased but
will be restricted by “local
self-interests”
Unpredictable market system; survival of the
fittest; Jakarta’s primacy
will be fostered
Scenario 2: with rigid and top-down national urban policy
People movement may be
“planned” but top-down approach difficult to work
People’s participation is a
must – but national processes will take time and will be ineffective
It is an “oxymoron”
(paradoxical) – will not work
Scenario 3: with dynamic-responsive national urban policy
Cities still have flexibility; national resources better allocated; people moves are accommodated
People can participate at all level; no need for
hierarchical process reduce time needed to plan
By using
incentive-disincentive approach, national policy still can work
Now:
Decentralized Concentrations
More globally competitive urban agglomerations (attracting
investment)…
Less environmental (eg. ecological
footprints) and infrastructure costs…
OR
Highly
decentralized
Scenario 1: Current
2
1
Scenario 2: Proposed
Highly
concentrated
Example of What Should be Done: A
Example of What Should be Done: A
Clear Strategy to Reduce Urban Primacy
Old Primate City (JAKARTA)
New Urban Agglomeration
(based on existing cities) New Urban
Agglomeration
(based on existing cities)
New Urban Agglomeration
(based on existing cities)
Rural & Small Towns Development
(to discourage rural-urban migration)
Rural & Small Towns Development
Metropolitan Areas
Source: Bappenas, 2016
based on Medium Term National Development Plan 2015-2019
The current government introduces a concept of development from the periphery, including supporting new metropolitan areas outside Java
Why is it important?
Increasing demand to alleviate poverty through “good-quality” urbanization
Improving regional/metropolitan competitiveness
Bear in Mind
…
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS and What do these goals mean for cities,
urbanization and people’s welfare -improvement in Indonesia?
HABITAT III CONFERENCE and the New Urban Agenda – how it will help improve Indonesian cities and urbanization?
Implication for Local Governments
■ 5-Year Development Plan (RPJM)
■ Annual Development Plan (RKP)
■ Strategic Plan
■ Others
KSPPN NUA SDGs
Indonesia New Urban Agenda
Local Action Plan for SDGs
