Fixed Income Daily Notes
Global Market Update
Although United Kingdom’s economy was slowing down, at Thursday council meeting, BoE was still hiking their interest rates 25 bps, from 0.50% to 0.75%, highest since 2008 financial crises. According to BoE Governor, Mark Carney, monetary policy of BoE could not be hindered by Brexit, and Brexit did not mean that BoE must lowering interest rates. Furthermore, even though BoE predicted that current economic condition of United Kingdom could led to fulfillment of inflation target, BoE also had anticipated tightening risk of interest rates hike.
Yesterday, August 02, US 10-year treasury yield mengalami perlambatan ekonomi, Bank of England (BoE), dalam pertemuan pada hari Kamis, tetap memutuskan untuk menaikan tingkat suku bunga sebesar 25 bps, dari sebelumnya sebesar 0,5% menjadi 0,75%. Kenaikan ini sendiri menjadikan tingkat suku bunga BoE yang tertinggi sejak krisis finansial global 1 dekade yang lalu. Menurut Gubernur BoE, Mark Carney, BoE tetap harus menaikkan tingkat suku bunga tanpa harus dibatasi dengan kondisi Brexit, dan kondisi Brexit bukan berarti BoE harus menurunkan tingkat suku bunga. Lebih lanjut, meskipun BoE memprediksi bahwa percepatan ekonomi akan menjaga inflasi sesuai target, mereka sudah bersiap menghadapi resiko sekunder diprediksi cenderung menguat terbatas akibat turunnya yield AS. Nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar AS diprediksi bergerak pada kisaran Rp14.486 – Rp14.543 sedangkan yield benchmark 10 tahun (FR0064) pada perdagangan hari ini diperkirakan bergerak di rentang 7,66% - 7,73%.
Maturities (Year) 2-Aug (-1 day) (-1 week) (-1 month)
Volume Volume
(IDR bn) (IDR bn)
FR0063 92.00 7.65 1467 BNII02BCN1 idAAA 98.20 7.16 200 FR0059 94.49 7.88 1180 SWMEDP01B idA(sy) 100.00 9.75 200 FR0071 107.00 8.01 845 BSMT01SBCN1 idBBB+ 100.08 8.08 113 FR0068 103.10 8.02 796 ADMF04BCN1 idAAA 100.02 6.14 70 FR0073 104.50 8.17 581 PIKI01C idAA 100.10 7.42 62 FR0065 89.70 7.81 542 ISAT01CCN3 idAAA 105.07 7.66 50 FR0056 103.00 7.87 515 TINS01BCN1 idA+ 99.10 6.99 40 SPN12190214 97.19 5.50 499 AKRA01B idAA- 101.30 6.83 34 FR0075 96.25 7.88 457 BIIF01ACN1 AA+(idn) 100.95 7.21 33 PBS013 100.00 6.23 448 BNGA02ACN2 idAAA 100.03 6.34 30
Global Stock Marketss Last Price Chg (bps) % Chg % YTD Global Bonds 2-Aug
Indonesia (JCI) 6012 -21.70 -0.36% -5.41% 2-Aug (-1 day) (-1 week) (- 1 month) Malaysia (KLCI) 1778 -10.18 -0.57% -1.04% Fed Fund Rate & US T-Bonds Yield
Thailand (SET) 1708 -13.73 -0.80% -2.59% Fed Fund Rate 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 Singapore (STI) 3286 -42.63 -1.28% -3.4% 2-Year 2.55 2.53 2.51 2.49 Hang Seng 27715 -626.18 -2.21% -7.4% 5-Year 2.73 2.72 2.72 2.76 Nikkei 225 22513 -234.17 -1.03% -1.11% 10-Year 2.99 3.01 2.98 2.83 Shanghai 2768 -56.51 -2.00% -16.30% 30-Year 2.95 2.96 2.97 3.07 Dow Jones (DJIA) 25326 -7.66 -0.03% 2.46% 10-Year Government Bond Yield
London (FTSE 100) 7576 -76.98 -1.01% -1.45% UK 1.37 1.38 1.28 1.26 DAX 12546 -190.72 -1.50% -2.9% Germany 0.46 0.48 0.40 0.30
France 0.78 0.78 0.70 0.64
FX Rate 2-Aug China 3.47 3.46 3.54 3.50
2-Aug (-1 day) (-1 week) Japan 0.12 0.12 0.09 0.03
USD/IDR 14,515 14,444 14,470 Korea 2.73 2.73 2.73 2.73 GBP/USD 1.302 1.313 1.311 Thailand 2.72 2.72 2.71 2.56 USD/JPY 111.7 111.7 111.2 Malaysia 4.03 4.04 4.08 4.15 USD/SGD 1.369 1.362 1.364 Singapore 2.49 2.47 2.41 2.45 USD/THB 33.29 33.16 33.41 Indonesia USD Bond Yield
USD/MYR 4.070 4.067 4.065 INDO-22 3.76 3.74 3.76 3.94 INDO-27 4.36 4.31 4.26 4.52
Macroeconomic Data INDO-47 5.00 4.96 4.89 5.23
Jun-18 May-18 Apr-18
Consumer Price Index (MoM) 0.59 0.21 0.10 Money Market 2-Aug
Consumer Price Index (YoY) 3.12 3.23 3.41 2-Aug (-1 day) (-1 week) (- 1 month) Core Inflation (YoY) 2.72 2.75 2.69 JIBOR
BI 7-Day RR Rate (%) 5.25 4.75 4.25 O/N 5.01 5.01 5.00 4.92 Foreign Reserve (US$ Bn) 119.8 122.9 124.9 1M 6.41 6.43 6.51 7.16
3M 7.08 7.08 7.13 7.32
Indonesia Sovereign CDS LIBOR
As of 2-year 5-year 10-year 1M 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.10
2-Aug 41.95 118.15 193.93 3M 2.35 2.35 2.34 2.34
(-1 Day) 43.18 114.64 194.47 6M 2.53 2.53 2.53 2.52 (-1 Week) 42.32 106.53 175.17 Indonesia Interest Rates
(-1 Month) 54.05 132.91 221.05 Deposit 1M 5.76 5.75 5.68 5.67 (-1 Year) 43.21 108.43 180.50 Lending 13.7 13.2 13.5 14.0
Benchmark 2-Aug (-1 day) Change Yield
FR0061 98.23 98.20 3 7.54% FR0059 94.88 95.00 -12 7.81% FR0074 94.69 94.57 12 8.14% FR0072 100.29 100.18 10 8.22%
Last Yield Most Active Corporate Bonds Last Price Last Yield Most Active Government Bonds Last Price
Government Bond Ownership As of August 01, 2018 (in Trillion)
Holders 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 27-Jul-18 30-Jul-18 31-Jul-18 1-Aug-18
Banks 335.43 375.55 350.07 399.46 491.61 575.42 579.77 577.20 578.33
Bank Indonesia 44.44 41.63 148.91 134.25 141.83 108.25 102.50 102.39 100.99
Mutual Fund 42.50 45.79 61.60 85.66 104.00 112.7 112.9 112.9 113.0
Insurance 129.55 150.60 171.62 238.24 150.80 189.5 189.6 189.7 189.8
Foreign Investor 323.83 461.35 558.52 665.81 836.15 835.87 836.82 839.26 839.29
Pension Fund 39.47 43.30 49.83 87.28 198.06 208.87 208.88 209.07 209.08
Individual Investors 32.48 30.41 42.53 57.75 59.84 63.09 63.23 63.28 63.39
Others 47.56 61.32 78.76 104.84 117.48 132.33 132.34 132.22 132.17
Total 995.25 1,209.96 1,461.85 1,773.28 2,099.77 2,226.06 2,226.07 2,226.06 2,226.06
Government Bonds Prices
Closing Price Data : 2-Aug-2018
Series
Maturity
TTM
Coupon
Price
YTM
Price (-1)
Price Spread (bps)
FR0038
15-Aug-18
0.04
11.600%
100.41
-4.69%
100.59
-17.6
FR0048
15-Sep-18
0.12
9.000%
100.55
3.76%
100.55
0.0
FR0069
15-Apr-19
0.70
7.875%
101.04
6.30%
100.99
4.5
FR0036
15-Sep-19
1.12
11.500%
105.08
6.65%
105.11
-2.6
FR0031
15-Nov-20
2.29
11.000%
107.94
7.15%
107.92
2.1
FR0034
15-Jun-21
2.87
12.800%
114.01
7.27%
113.88
13.1
FR0053
15-Jul-21
2.95
8.250%
102.43
7.31%
102.49
-6.1
FR0061
15-May-22
3.79
7.000%
98.23
7.54%
98.20
3.1
FR0035
15-Jun-22
3.87
12.900%
117.33
7.62%
117.29
4.2
FR0043
15-Jul-22
3.95
10.250%
108.73
7.64%
108.72
1.0
FR0063
15-May-23
4.79
5.625%
92.19
7.60%
92.19
0.7
FR0046
15-Jul-23
4.95
9.500%
107.33
7.69%
107.28
4.5
FR0039
15-Aug-23
5.04
11.750%
116.44
7.74%
116.32
11.8
FR0070
15-Mar-24
5.62
8.375%
102.97
7.71%
102.84
12.8
FR0044
15-Sep-24
6.13
10.000%
110.85
7.74%
110.70
14.6
FR0040
15-Sep-25
7.13
11.000%
117.18
7.80%
117.06
11.6
FR0037
15-Sep-26
8.13
12.000%
124.66
7.83%
124.62
3.5
FR0056
15-Sep-26
8.13
8.375%
103.27
7.82%
103.28
-0.9
FR0059
15-May-27
8.79
7.000%
94.88
7.81%
95.00
-12.1
FR0042
15-Jul-27
8.96
10.250%
114.91
7.89%
114.91
-0.2
FR0047
15-Feb-28
9.55
10.000%
113.58
7.94%
113.57
1.7
FR0064
15-May-28
9.79
6.125%
89.27
7.71%
89.27
0.6
FR0071
15-Mar-29
10.62
9.000%
107.16
7.98%
106.99
17.2
FR0052
15-Aug-30
12.04
10.500%
118.00
8.13%
118.65
-65.0
FR0073
15-May-31
12.79
8.750%
104.82
8.13%
104.75
6.8
FR0054
15-Jul-31
12.96
9.500%
110.70
8.15%
110.46
23.3
FR0058
15-Jun-32
13.88
8.250%
100.65
8.17%
101.00
-35.0
FR0074
15-Aug-32
14.05
7.500%
94.69
8.14%
94.57
12.4
FR0065
15-May-33
14.79
6.625%
87.67
8.07%
87.59
7.6
FR0068
15-Mar-34
15.63
8.375%
101.46
8.21%
101.46
0.6
FR0072
15-May-36
17.80
8.250%
100.29
8.22%
100.18
10.1
FR0045
15-May-37
18.80
9.750%
113.67
8.31%
113.523
14.3
FR0075
15-May-38
138.47
7.500%
93.98
8.11%
94.14
-16.0
FR0050
15-Jul-38
19.96
10.500%
120.77
8.34%
119.50
127.0
FR0057
15-May-41
22.80
9.500%
110.70
8.43%
110.75
-4.6
FR0062
15-Apr-42
23.72
6.375%
78.79
8.46%
78.89
-10.1
FR0067
15-Jul-43
24.97
8.750%
103.07
8.45%
103.12
-5.3
FR0076
15-May-48
29.81
7.375%
88.50
8.48%
88.55
-5.6
Macroeconomic Indicator Calendar (19 - 23 Maret 2018)
Macroeconomic Indicator Calendar (July 30 - August 03 2018)
Source: Tradingeconomics, Bloomberg, and MCS Estimates (2018)
INDONESIA
Date Indicator Series Data Actual Previous Projection
31 M2 Money Supply (YoY) Jun-18 5.9% 6.0% -
01 Inflation Rate (YoY) Jul-18 3.18% 3.12% 3.03%
01 Core Inflation Rate (YoY) Jul-18 2.87% 2.72% 2.69%
GLOBAL
Date Indicator Country Series Data Actual Previous Projection
30 Inflation Rate Prel. (YoY) Germany Jul-18 2.0% 2.1% 2.0%
31 BoJ Interest Rate Japan - -0.1% -0.1% -0.1%
31 NBS Manufacturing PMI China Jul-18 51.2 51.5 51.2
31 Economic Growth Rate Flash. (YoY) Euro Area Quarter-II 2.1% 2.5% 2.5%
31 Unemployment Rate Euro Area Jun-18 8.3% 8.3% 8.5%
01 ADP Employment Change US Jul-18 219 thousand 181 thousand 174 thousand
01 Crude Oil Inventory US July 20 - 2018 3.80 million barrel -6.15 million barrel -0.09 million barrel Week Ended,
02 Fed Interest Rate US - 2.00% 2.00% 2.00%
02 BoE Interest Rate Kingdom United - 0.75% 0.50% 0.75%
02 Initial Jobless Claims US Week Ended, July 28-2018 218 thousand 217 thousand 219 thousand
02 Continuing Jobless Claims US Week Ended, July 21-2018 1724 thousand 1742 thousand 1754 thousand
03 Balance of Trade US Jun-18 - -43.1 billion USD -41.0 billion USD
03 Unemployment Rate US Jul-18 - 4.0% 4.0%
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