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Totalomzet buah Totalomzet Total omzet kualitas 2

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LAMPlRAN KURV A 80-20

Tabell

Kode Totalornzet Omzet Omzet bulanan Omzet bulanan Totalomzet

buah Totalomzet Total omzet kualitas 2 B.S bulanan kualitas 2 B.S bulanan

1 107.972.144,50 14.465.015,00 ( 3 ) 1.545.412,50 10.797.214,45 1.446.501,50 171.713 12.415.428,45

2 89.716.353,50 21.866.277,50 ( 3 ) 1.187.162,50 B.971.635,35 2.186.627,75 118.716 11.276.979,35

3 58.1n.502,50 5.816.750,25 5.816.750,25

4 130.295.425,50 21.836.210,00 ( 3 ) 1.907.293,75 13.029.542,55 2.183.621,00 190.729 15.403.892,93

6 40.183.980,00 6.493.855,17 ( 9 ) 381.575,00 8.036.796,00 1.298.771,03 76.315,00 9.411.882,03

7 99.132.655,00 20.891.586,53 ( 9 ) 1.343.762,50 9.913.265,50 2.089.158,65 149.306,94 12.151.731,10

8 4.713.B75,00 1.633.805,17 ( 9 ) 53.500,00 2.356.937,50 816.902,58 53.500,00 3.227.340,08

9 93.925.895,83 10.436.210,65 10.436.210,65

10 7.618.815,00 2.443.098,08 ( 9 ) 309.000,00 1.904.703,75 610.774,52 103.000,00 2.618.478,27

11 9.894.194,00 5.884.961,11 ( 9 ) 2.473.548,50 1.471.240,28 3.944.788,78

13 723.630.535,00 56.638.288,11 ( 9 ) 10.239.875,00 72.363.053,50 5.663.828,81 1.023.987,50 79.050.869,81

14 15.697.340,00 55.625,00 1.962.167,50 13.906,25 1.976.073,75

16 25.974.501,27 260.125,00 2.886.055,70 6.180,56 2.892.236,25

17 25.636.347,03 290.812,50 2.563.634,70 29.081,25 2.592.715,95

18 925.000,00 231.250,00 231.250,00

19 8.950.944,70 64.975,00 1.790.188,94 12.995,00 1.803.183,94

20 13.172.180,00 407.500,00 ( 29 ) 339.125,00 4.390.726,67 135.833,33 113.041,67 4.639.601,67

21 118.478.635,00 3.376.153,33 ( 29 ) 1.715.500,00 23.695.727,00 675.230,67 343.100,00 24.714.057,67

22 222.611.722,00 9.587.125,00 ( 29 ) 2.418.162,50 27.826.465,25 1.198.390,63 302.270,31 29.327.126,19

23 23.900.450,00 442.000,00 ( 29 ) 48.750,00 11.950.225,00 221.000,00 24.375,00 12.195.600,00

24 14.479.965,00 1.595.070,00 ( 29 ) 79.062,50 2.895.993,00 319.014,00 19.765,63 3.234.772,63

25 44.742.119,50 4.507.445,00 ( 29 ) 282.831,25 4.971.346,61 500.827,22 35.353,91 5.507.527,74

26 19.984.856,00 1 .523.950,00 ( 29 ) 246.500,00 3.330.809,33 253.991,67 49.300,00 3.634.101,00

27 14.346.250,00 743.166,67 ( 29 ) 312.500,00 7.173.125,00 371.583,33 156.250,00 7.700.958,33

(3)

29 20.003.585,00 2.000.358,50 2.000.358,50

30 907.830,00 17.531,25 907.830,00 17.531,25 925.361,25

32 30.760.521,50 6.896.010,00 33 1.170.768,75 15.380.260,75 3.448.005,00 585.384,38 19.413.650,13

33 6.896.010,00 3.448.005,00 3.448.005,00

34 289.121.121,00 42.874.801,50 35 3.691.181,25 57.824.224,20 8.574.960,30 738.236,25 67.137.420,75

35 42.874.801,50 8.574.960,30 8.574.960,30

339 37.294.000,00 178.812,50 12.431.333,33 178.812,50 12.610.145,83

36 152.111.765,00 18.157.395,00 37 2.125.468,75 21.730.252,14 2.593.913,57 354.244,79 24.678.410,51

37 18.157.395,00 2.593.913,57 2.593.913,57

40 181 .016.440,00 4.942.700,00 20.112.937,78 549.188,89 20.662.126,67

44 93.818.920,00 3.304.005,00 45 1.890.400,00 13.402.702,86 472.000,71 315.066,67 14.169.770,24

45 3.304.005,00 826.001,25 826.001,25

46 51.224.641,00 311.237,50 8.537.440,17 51.872,92 8.589.313,08

47 34.215.188,83 80.487,50 6.843.037,77 26.829,17 6.869.666,93

48 32.168.592,40 103.187,50 8.042.148,10 34.395,83 8.076.543,93

50 156.039.860,50 24.746.367,50 51 6.917.125,00 15.603.986,05 2.474.636,75 691.712,50 18.770.335,30

51 24.746.367,50 2.474.636,75 2.474.636,75

52 49.768.169,50 1.195.371,86 7.109.738,50 170.767,41 7.280.505,91

53 12.218.983,00 218.781,25 2.036.497,17 54.695,31 2.091.192,48

54 13.832.976,25 59.546,88 4.610.992,08 19.848,96 4.630.841,04

55 1.366.537,25 13.637,50 683.268,63 6.618,75 690.087,38

56 12.174.933,00 83.543,75 3.043.733,25 27.847,92 3.071.581,17

57 56.405.771,25 1.227.793,75 8.343.681,61 175.399,11 8.519.080,71

58 21.442.644,50 164.425,00 5.360.661,13 41.106,25 5.401.767,38

59 121.717.364,50 3.990.668,75 15.214.670,56 498.833,59 15.713.504,16

60 21.943.870,00 291.900,00 4.388.774,00 58.380,00 4.447.154,00

61 81.914.812,50 555.828,13 11.702.116,07 79.404,02 11.781520,09

63 63.021.340,00 911.756,25 6.302.134,00 91.175,63 6.393.309,63

64 2.464.495,00 82.218,75 821.498,33 41.109,38 862.607,71

65 7.990.100,00 60.397,78 887.788,89 7.549,72 895.338,61

67 51.516.301,05 9.309,00 5.151.630,11 4.654,50 5.156.284,61

68 37.927.961 ,30 25.962,50 3.792.796,13 2.884,72 3.795.680,85

(4)

70 38.437.424,00 3.432.445,00 71 724.300,00 4.804.678,00 429.055,63 103.471,43 5.337.205,05

71 3.432.445,00 572.074,17 572.074,17

74 99.722.221,00 16.814.432,00 75 2.847.000,00 11.080.246,78 1.868.270,22 2.101.804,00 15.050.321,00

75 16.814.432,00 2.101.804,00 2.101.804,00

76 60.651.011,00 17.884.500,00 77 922.800,00 6.739.001,22 1.987.166,67 2.554.928,57 11.281.096,46

77 17 .884.500,00 1.987.166,67 1.987.166,67

78 14.829.286,00 2.850.065,00 79 1.131.125,00 4.943.095,33 950.021,67 377.041,67 6.270.158,67

79 2.850.065,00 950.021,67 950.021,67

80 76.513.552,36 246.225,00 9.564.194,05 41.037,50 9.605.231,55

81 37.710.647,52 111.300,00 6.285.107,92 22.260,00 6.307.367,92

83 39.843.134,94 526.968,75 3.984.313,49 52.696,88 4.037.010,37

84 967.000,00 967.000,00 967.000,00

85 26.462.634,42 123.037,50 3.307.829,30 15.379,69 3.323.208,99

66 46.016.782,41 5.752.347,80 5.752.347,80

87 6.672.609,11 102.193,75 667.260,91 14.599,11 681.860,02

88 25.803.052,57 2.580.305,26 2.580.305,26

990 240.717.399,52 1.242.875,00 30.089.674,94 155.359,38 30.245.034,31

991 17.318.245,00 41.187,50 4.329.561,25 13.729,17 4.343.290,42

992 6.529.570,00 13.250,00 3.264.785,00 6.625,00 3.271.410,00

993 499.610,00 249.805,00 249.805,00

995 385.410,00 192.705,00 192.705,00

999 170.550,00 170.550,00 170.550,00

94 1.822.045,00 37.125,00 202.449,44 6.187,50 208.636,94

95 116.190,00 58.095,00 58.095,00

96 66.580.937,14 6.658.093,71 6.658.093,71

98 49.887.009,42 185.925,00 4.988.700,94 26.560,71 5.015.261,66

99 3.611.375,00 2.468,75 1.203.791,67 2.468,75 1.206.260,42

100 24.368.942,50 180.718,75 2.436.894,25 20.079,86 2.456.974,11

101 2.567.399,46 9.625,00 285.266,61 9.625,00 294.891,61

102 653.000,00 15.727,38 653.000,00 15.727,38 668.727,38

103 2.710.500,00 542.100,00 542.100,00

107 2.758.300,00 15.637,50 306.477,78 3.127,50 309.605,28

(5)

109 611.614.480,50 3.752.231,25 61.161.448,05 375.223,13 61.536.671,18

110 8.318.702,94 570.080,00 ( 1110 ) 1.039.837,87 71.260,00 1.111.097,87

111 102.537.515,92 87.911,25 10.253.751,59 9.767,92 10.263.519,51

112 2.134.600,00 426.920,00 426.920,00

113 22.314.690,00 52.950,00 3.187.812,86 8.825,00 3.196.637,86

1.131 877.650,00 877.650,00 877.650,00

114 241.101.230,68 372.859,38 24.110.123,07 37.285,94 24.147.409,01

116 20.014.500,00 11.252,88 2.859.214,29 5.626,44 2.864.840,72

117 3.219.885,00 6.625,00 1.609.942,50 6.625,00 1.616.567,50

118 1.232.085,00 8.187,50 410.695,00 4.093,75 414.788,75

121 4.726.558,50 28.143,75 1.575.519,50 28.143,75 1 .603.663,25

122 61.159.667,91 545.159,38 6.115.966,79 54.515,94 6.170.482,73

125 232.125,00 10.312,50 232.125,00 10.312,50 242.437,50

128 688.S00,00 114.750,00 114.750,00

130 30.957.000,00 5.159.500,00 5.159.500,00

131 157.735.480,50 586.687,50 22.533.640,07 97.781,25 22.631.421,32

133 264.814.827,07 139.125,00 52.962.965,41 139.125,00 53.102.090,41

134 9.099.150,00 167.000,00 909.915,00 33.400,00 943.315,00

136 6.758.350,00 675.835,00 675.835,00

138 54.461.852,18 22.293,75 9.076.975,36 5.573,44 9.082.548,80

139 1.391.835,00 347.958,75 347.958,75

140 31.181.008,66 162.656,25 3.118.100,87 18.072,92 3.136.173,78

141 627.000,00 562,SO 156.750,00 562,50 157.312,50

672 3.903.876,00 1 .951 .938,00 1.951.938,00

673 121.200,00 60.600,00 60.600,00

675 18.441.235,96 2.280,00 1.844.123,60 2.280,00 1.846.403,60

831 12.153.898,00 49.000,00 1.215.389,80 16.333,33 1.231.723,13

861 36.091.510,86 21.125,00 4.511.438,86 10.562,50 4.522.001,36

862 9.215.530,00 4.500,00 1.843.106,00 2.250,00 1 .845.356,00

961 35.659.127,71 138.159,38 3.565.912,77 15.351,04 3.581.263,81

962 2.115.825,64 5.437,50 423.165,13 1.812,50 424.977,63

963 1.232.556,00 4.250,00 246.511,20 4.250,00 250.761,20

(6)

966 1.222.523,00

968 3.041.402,00

969 1.677.924,50

1.021 27.001.083,33

10.211 888.000,00

1.031 3.020.000,00

1.041 112.090,00

1.080 4.362.500,00

1.093 85.300,00

1.094 3.869.755,00

1.101 3.328.500,00

1.102 751.500,00

1.110 570.080,00

1.141 10.043.825,00 1.190 10.702.250,00

Kumulatif Kode Totalomzet Prosentase prosentase Item

buah bulanan omzet omzet

ke-13 79.050.869,81 8,63 8,63 1

34 67.137.420,75 7,33 15,96 2

109 61.536.671,18 6,72 22,68 3

133 53.102.090,41 5,80 28,48 4

990 30.245.034,31 3,30 31,78 5

22 29.327.126,19 3,20 34,98 6

21 24.714.057,67 2,70 37,68 7

36 24.678.410,51 2,69 40,37 8

114 24.147.409,01 2,64 43,01 9

131 22.631.421,32 2,47 45,48 10

40 20.662.126,67 2,26 47,74 11

244.504,60

22.506,25 608.280,40

838.962,25 13.562,50 5.400.216,67

444.000,00

24.200,00 377.500,00

112.090,00 4.362.500,00 85.300,00 386.975,50 332.850,00 751.500,00 285.040,00

75.500,00 1.434.832,14

110.937,50 1.070,n5,0~ __

Tabel2

Prosentase Kode

item buah

0,79 113

1,59 140

2,38 56

3,17 16

3,97 116

4,76 10

5,56 17

6,35 88

7,14 100

7,94 53

8,73 14

7.502,08 13.562,50 4.840,00 15.100,00 22.187,50 - -

-Totalomzet Prosentase bulanan omzet

3.196.637,86 0,35

3.136.173,78 0,34

3.071.581,17 0,34

2.892.236,25 0,32

2.864.840,72 0,31

2.618.478,27 0,29

2.592.715,95 0,28

2.580.305,26 0,28

2.456.974,11 0,27

2.091.192,48 0,23

1.976.073,75 0,22

244.504,60 615.782,48 838.962,25 5.413.779,17 444.000,00 382.340,00 112.090,00 4.362.500,00 85.300,00 386.975,50 332.850,00 751.500.00 285.040,00 1.449.932,14 1.092.412,50 Kumulatif prosentase item

omzet

ke-93,18 65

93.52 66

93,86 67

94,18 68

94,49 69

94,77 70

95,06 71

95,34 72

95,61 73

95,84 74

96,05 75

(7)
(8)

58 5.401.767,38 0,59 84,14 45 35,71 139 347.958,75 0,04 99,64 109 86,51

70 5.337.205,05 0,58 84,72 46 36,51 1.101 332.850,00 0,04 99,67 110 87,30

130 5.159.500,00 0,56 85,28 47 37,30 107 309.605,28 0,03 99,71 111 88,10

67 5.156.284,61 0,56 85,84 48 38,10 101 294.891,61 0,Q3 99,74 112 88,89

98 5.015.261,66 0,55 86,39 49 38,89 963 250.761,20 0,03 99,77 113 89,68

20 4.639.601,67 0,51 86,90 50 39,68 993 249.805,00 0,03 99,79 114 90,48

54 4.630.841,04 0,51 87,40 5t 40,48 966 244.504,60 0,03 99,82 115 91,27

861 4.522.001,36 0,49 87,90 52 41,27 125 242.437,50 0,03 99,85 116 92,06

60 4.447.154,00 0,49 88,38 53 42,06 18 231.250,00 0,03 99,87 117 92,86

1.080 4.362.500,00 0,48 88,86 54 42,86 94 208.636,94 0,02 99,90 118 93,65

991 4.343.290,42 0,47 89,33 55 43,65 995 192.705,00 0,02 99,92 119 94,44

83 4.037.010,37 0,44 89,77 56 44,44 999 170.550,00 0,02 99,94 120 95,24

11 3.944.788,78 0,43 90,21 57 45,24 141 157.312,50 0,02 99,95 121 96,03

68 3.795.680,85 0,41 90,62 58 46,03 128 114.750,00 0,01 99,97 122 96,83

26 3.634.101,00 0,40 91,02 59 46,83 1.041 112.090,00 0,01 99,98 123 97,62

961 3.581.263,81 0,39 91,41 60 47,62 1.093 85.300,00 0,01 99,99 124 98,41

85 3.323.208,99 0,36 91,77 61 48,41 673 60.600,00 0,01 99,99 125 99,21

992 3.271.410,00 0,36 92,13 62 49,21 95 58.095,00 0,01 100,00 126 100,00

24 3.234.772,63 0,35 92,48 63 50,00 915.948.714,63 100,00

Keterangan Kode Buah :

1

= APEL BLUE CHELAND

16

= APEL MANALAGI

27

= ANGGUR MERAH CHILLI

2

= APEL LENGKENG

17

= APELBATU

28

= ANGGUR HIJAU

4

=APEL USA

18

= ASAM BANGKOK

30

= KEPROKRRT

6

= APEL BEAUTY NZ

19

= ALPUKAT

32

= EPROKKINO

7

= APEL ROYAL GALA

20

= ANGGUR MERAH

34

= KEPROK LUKAN

8

= APEL REDDEL

21

=

ANGGUR MERAH RG BONZA

339

= KEPROK LUKAN 2

10

=

APEL FUJI USA

22

=

ANGGUR R GLOBE

36

= KEPROK MURCOT

11

= APEL JUMBO

23

= ANGGUR BLACK

38

= KEPROK PlLlHAN

13

= APEL FUJI RRT

24

=

ANGGUR R MUTIARA

40

= KEPROK IMPERIAL

14

= APEL JEP ANG KUNING

25

=

ANGGUR HIJAU

44

= KEPROK MANDARIN

(9)

48

= JERUK PUNTEN

992

= MANGGA MANALAGI

133

= DUKU

50

=XIANGLIE

PILIHAN

134

= DRAGON FRUIT

52

=YALIE

993

= MANGGA GOLEK

136

=NANGKA

53

=PEAR SEGAR

995

= MANGGA LAMBAU

138

= RAMBUTAN BlNJAI

54

= SIEHLIE

999

= MANGGA PODANG

139

= RAMBUT AN RAPIAH

55

= SULIE

94

= MATHAI

140

= TOMAT

56

= PEAR GOLDEN

95

=MARQISA

141

= TOMAT CHERRY

57

= PEAR SANTUNG

96

= MELON

672

= PISANG AMBON

58

= PEAR

98

=MANGGIS

673

= PI SANG RAJA

59

= PEAR SWEET

99

= MANGGA THAILAN

675

=PISANGMAS

60

= PEAR BANSAKIT

100

= KIWI

831

= JERUK MALAYSIA

61

=

PEAR SINKAU

101

= KETELA

861

= JAMBU AIR MERAH

63

=PEARHIJAU

\02

=KURMA

862

= JAMBU AIR MUTIARA

64

= PEAR NAZHI

103

= KOPYOR

961

= ROCK ORANGE MELON

65

= PLUM

\07

= LEMON

962

= GOLDEN MOLEN

67

= PISANG CA VENDJSH

\08

= LYCHEE

963

= GOLDEN MOLEN 2

68

~PEPAYA

109

=LENGKENG

964

= SKY MELON

69

= PEAR AFRIKA

110

= SEMANGKA KUNlNG

966

= HONEY MELON

70

= ORANGE V ALEN

III

= SEMANGKA MERAH

968

=HAMlQUA

74

=

SUNKIST NAVEL

112

= SIWALAN

969

= MELON HIDROPONIK

76

= SUNKIST ARAB

113

= SALAK BALI

1021

= KURMA IMPORT

78

= ORANGE NAVEL USA

1131

= SALAKMADU

10211

=KURMA

80

= JERUK JAFFA

114

=SALAKPONDOH

1031

= KELAP A BANGKOK

81

= JERUK PACITAN

116

= STRAWBERRY

1041

=KESEMEK

83

=JERUKBALI

117

= SRIKAYA

1080

=NOMACY

84

= JERUK MADIUN

118

=SAWO

1093

= LOTUS ROOT

85

= JERUK V ALENSIA

121

=

PEAR SlNSEIKI

1094

=LAKCY

86

=JAMBU AIR

122

=

BELIMBlNG

1101

= KETELA OVEN

87

= JAMBU BANGKOK

125

=CEMPEDAK

1102

= KURMA

88

= JAGUNG MANIS

128

= GRAPE FRUIT

1110

= SEMANGKA PILIHAN

990

= MANGGA HARUM MANIS

130

= DURIAN

1141

= APEL JEPANG MERAH

(10)

LAMPIRAN OUTPUT ARIMA

Nol3

BOO

700

600

500

400

300

200

'"

100

OJ

33 65 161 193 225 257

17 49 81 113 145 177 209 241 273

Sequence number

813

1,0

,5

- 5 Confidence Limits

LL

U

«

-1 ,0 ,L~~~~~~~~~~~~-~~~-o:"~~~~CT"'~-J ~oeffiCient 13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55

10 16 22 28 34 40 46 52 58

Lag Number

Transforms' difference (1)

813

1,0~---,

,5

LL U

..:

0,0~~:;E~~

,-..

-.

,~

-.:

'"

-,5

a... -1 ,0 -'--~~~~~~_~~~_~~~~~~~_~~--'

13

10 16

Lag Number

19

22

25 31

28

Transforms difference (1)

Model Description;

Variable: B13

Regressors; NONE

'37 4'3 49 55

34 40 46 52 58

Confidence limits

(11)

Non-seasonal differencing: 1

Seasonal differencing:

°

Length of Seasonal Cycle: 7

Parameters:

MAl < value originating

MA2 < value originating

SMA1 < value originating

SMA2 < value originating

from from from from

estimation > estimation > estimation > estimation >

95,00 percent confidence intervals will be generated.

Initial values:

MAl HA2 SMA1 SMA2

,15507 ,28034 -,03495 -,29379

Marquardt constant

=

,001

Adjusted sum of squares 878070,87

Iteration History:

Iteration Adj. Sum of Squares Harquardt Constant

1

2

3 4 5 6

FINAL PARAMETERS:

Number of residuals Standard error Log likelihood AIC

SBC

822823,35 806741,58 803604,39 803055,96 802961,41 802945,2;

299 51,883635 -1604,6545 3217,3089 3232,1107

Analysis of Variance:

,00100000 ,00010000 ,00001000 ,00000100 ,00000010 ,00000001

DF Adj. Sum of Squares Residual Variance

Residuals 295 802942,50 2691,9116

variables in the Model:

B SEB T-RATIO APPROX. PROB.

MAl ,41401806 ,05304929 7,8044041 ,00000000

MA2 ,47060685 ,05287055 8,9011157 ,00000000

SMA1 ,00563319 ,05956491 ,0945722 ,92471881

(12)

E rro r fo r B 1 3 fro mAR I M A, MOD 14 NO CON

1,0~---,

,5

0,0 ---

• I, •

-,5

Confldence limits

LL U

..;:: -1,0 -'-:-_______ , -_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ----' .Coefficient

13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55

10 15 22 28 34 40 46 52 58

Lag Number

(13)

1000,---.

..

M CD

"-o

<>: 800

600

400

200

13 25 37 49 61 73 85 97

19 31 43 55 67 79 91

Sequence number

834

1,0 ~---~

,5

,0

1I

....

_

~.~~~

T '

..

~.~~I~..~-.~r::.

• • ' _ • • • • • • - .

•.

~~.~

.I:r:~

r2:-;-~-;'~

, 5

-1.0

13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55 10 16 22 28 34 40 46 52 58

Lag Number

Traosforms. diffefef\Ce {1}

834

"O~---__,

,5

• • • • •• I. .•• I. I

O,O+,DE~~~~-r~~~~~~~~-U~~~ 1 ••

If •

• '

p.- "

.• · ...

.~'

. -.

'.

109 103

Confidence Limits

~oefficient

Confidence Limits

'"

a.. -1.0 .L, ____ ~~~~~~~~_. ____ ~~~~~~~~--' ~oeffic ient

13 19 25 31 10 16 22 28 34

Lag Number

Transforms difference (1)

Model Description:

Variable: B34

Regressors: NONE

Non-seasonal differencing: 1 Seasonal differencing: 0 Length of seasonal Cycle: 7

(14)

Parameters:

AR1

<

value originating from estimation >

MAl

<

value originating from estimation >

SARI

<

value originating from estimation >

95,00 percent confidence intervals will be generated.

Initial values:

ARI

MAl

SAR1

,92554 ,91697 ,18937

Marquardt constant = ,001

Adjusted sum of squares 1228613,7

Iteration History:

Iteration Adj. Sum of Squares Marquardt Constant

1

2

3 4 5 6

FINAL PARAMETERS:

Number of residuals standard error Log likelihood AIC

SEC

1047018,3 1031762,3 1025940,5 1023190,8 1021873,2 1021247,9

112 96,493761 -669,52753 1345,0551 1353,2106

Analysis of Variance:

DF Adj. Sum of Squares

Residuals 109 1020953,2

Variables in the Model:

B SEB T-RATIO

AR1 ,64708164 ,14114833 4,5844087

MAl

,91696811 ,10695745 8,5732049

SAR1 ,20598386 ,09813918 2,0988953

,10000000 ,01000000 ,00100000 ,00010000 ,00001000 ,00000100

Residual Variance

9311,0459

APPROX. PROB.

(15)

U-<.)

E rro r fa r 834 fro mAR I M A, MOD 80 NO CON

1 . 0 , - - - ,

.5

• II

.1.

..1 -.: •••

r.-

.

O.O+,~~r_r_~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

'If

,- ." ...

I

I --.,....

or

I' •

-.5

Confidence Limits

«

-1 ,0 .L, ____ ~...,,,--~ __ -:-.,,--________ ----~~~~~-l ~o effie ie nt

13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55

U-<.)

«

'"

10 16 22 28 34 40 46 52 58

Lag Number

Errorfor 834 from ARIMA, MOD 80 NOCON

1.0 . _ - - - ,

.5

-.5

Confidence Limits

"coefficient

1 3 19 25 31 37 43 49 55 4 10 16 22 28 34 ~o 46 52 58

Lag Number

No 109

600 ,

-500

400

300

200

100

33 65 91 129 161 193 225 257 tag

17 49 81 113 1.45 177 209 241 273

(16)

8109

1,0 ~---~

,5

-,5

Confidence Limits

"-o

«

-1 ,0 .1..,~~.-~~~~..,...-.-..,...~~~~~~~~

__

~~.J ~oefficient

13 19 25 31, 37 43 49 55

u.

o

«

10 16 22 28 34 40 46 52 58

Lag Number

Transforms difference (1)

8109

,,0,---,

,5

-,5 Confidence Limits

'"

'"

a.. -1 ,0 ...,~~._~~~~..,...,...,...~~~~~~~~-~~.J ~oeffjcient

13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55

10 16 22 28 34 40 46 52 58

Lag Number

Transforms difference (1)

Model Description:

Variable: B109

Regressors: NONE

Non-seasonal differencing: 1 No seasonal component in model.

Parameters'!

MAl

<

value originating

MA2

<

value originating

MA3

<

value originating

from estimation from estimation from estimation

95,00 percent confidence intervals will be generated.

Initial values:

MAl MA2 MA3

,22744 ,20360 ,23382

Marquardt constant = ,001

Adjusted sum of squares 665964,33

Iteration History:

(17)

Iteration Adj. Sum of Squares Marquardt Constant

1 2 3 4 5

FINAL PARAMETERS:

Number of residuals Standard error Log likelihood AIC

SBC

661636,89 659666,90 659553,94 659512,31 659504,25

282 48,279833 -1493,9254 2993,8508 3004,7765

Analysis of Variance:

DF Adj. Sum of Squares

Residuals 279

Variables in the

MAl MA2 MA3

B

,29753318 ,24569696 ,18795752

SEB

,06110665 ,06106752 ,06007777

659501,90

Mode~:

T-RATIO

4,8690805 4,0233658 3,1285702

,00100000 ,00010000 ,00001000 ,00000100 ,00000010

Residual Variance

2330,9423

APPROX. PROB.

,00000188 ,00007394 ,00194260

E

rro r fo r

B 1 09

fro

mAR I M A. MOD 14 NO

CO

f\

1,0 ~---,

-,5

Confidence Limits

LL

o

«

-1,0 .L. ____ -.,-~_...,-:-- __ ~..."C"""~-...,.,.--..,.".-...J "CoeffiCient

13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55

10 16 22 28 34 40 46 52 58

(18)

"-o

«

'"

'"

Q.

Error for 8109 from ARIMA, MOD_14 NOCOf\

1,0 T---~

,5

-,5

Confidence Limits

"-CoefflCient

-1,0 ~~-C--~--~~~~C__C--~~~--~--~

13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55

10 16 22 28 34 40 46 52 58

Lag Number

No 133

300 , - - - ,

200

100

'"

33 65 97 129 161 193 225 257 289

17 49 81 113 145 177 209 241 273

Sequence number

300 , - - - ,

200

100

'"

33 49

"

"

97 113 129 145 25 57 73 89 1 05 121 137
(19)

8133

1,0 ~---,

,5

----0,0 • I

-'

I ... I .. ,I _. I _.

,_"

-n

I -I I ••• I I I · .- I "_

I

-,5

u. 0

«

-1,0

13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55

4 10 16 22 2B 34 40 46 52 58

Lag Number

Transforms difference (1)

8133

1 , 0 . , - - - ,

,5

u.

o

«

•• I _IU II I ...

0,0

1...----"11

hrJ(~---jI--~ "'1 • • • I ' -.'

-,5

ro

Cl. -1 ,0 J...,~~~~...-..._..._~""~~~~~_.~~~~~.---J

13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55

10 16 22 28 34 40 46 52 58

Lag Number

Transforms. difference (1)

Model Description:

Variable: B133

Regressors: NONE

Non-seasonal differencing: 1 Seasonal differencing: 0 Length of Seasonal Cycle: 7

Parameters:

Conf"idence Limits

~oefficient

Confidence Limits

~oefficlent

MAl

<

value originating from estimation

>

MA2

<

value originating from estimation

SAR1

<

value originating from estimation

95,00 percent confidence intervals will be generated.

Initial values:

MAl MA2

SARI

,45676 ,19869 ,16035

Marquardt constant ~ ,001

Adjusted sum of squares ~ 247418,99

(20)

Iteration History:

Iteration Adj. Sum of Squares Marquardt Constant

1 2

FINAL PARAMETERS:

Number of residuals Standard error Log likelihood AlC

SBC

241908,26 241888,72

148 40,692696 -757,53667 1521,0733 1530,065

Analysis of Variance:

,00100000 ,00010000

DF Adj. Sum of Squares Residual Variance

Residuals 145 241888,49 1655,8955

MAl MA2 SARI

Variables in the Model:

B SEB T-RATlO APPROX. PROB.

,59237198 ,18581949 ,16918959

,08202607 ,08184740 ,08433714

7,2217526 2,2703165 2,0061100

,00000000 ,02466211 ,04670438

E rro r fo r B 1 33 fro mAR I M A.

MOD 4 NO CON

,,0.---,

,5

_I ••

1 III • •

• ....

I .. _ 0, 0

+---. •

...., .. · ...

~-I,..., ...

....,...--.Tra"' ...

'"'.r'I-....

...

,...,1...

.~

.

-,5

Confidence Limits

"-u

«

-1 ,0 .L,.~ _ _ _ _ ~ __ --: __ ...,.~...,.,:_o_:':-..,.,..--=~....J "CoeffiCient

13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55

4 10 16 22 28 34 40 46 52 58

(21)

Error for 8133 from AR 1M

A,

MOD

-

4

NOCON

1,0

,5

0,0

_I

J

II •••

I • .. 01

on

I

" •• rTI

~p

IL 0

<: ',5

'"

Conf'ldence L'lmits

<;:

'"

~Coefficient

CL -1,0

13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55

10 16 22 28 34 40 46 52 58

Lag Number

NO 990

400

300

200

100

J}

a

'"

'"

"'

65 257 289

17 49 81 113 145 177 241 273

Sequence number

400

300

200

100

JJV

'"

'"

"'

49 73 97 121 145 169 193 217

13 37

"

85 109

1 " 157 181 205 229

(22)

8990

1,0

,5

~

0,0

••

.

.

-,5

Confidence Limits

u..

u

«

-1 ,0 .L,~.--:~...,.,--~",--~.."..~,...~=~~~~~~~~.J ~oeffic ient

13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55

u..

u

«

10 16 22 28 34 40 46 52 58

Lag Number

Transforms difference (1)

8990

1.0 ~---,

,5

til Confidence Limits

til

Il. -1 ,0 .L,~--:~~~~~~~~~~.,....~~~~~~~,...J ~oefficient 13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55

10 16 22 28 34 40 46 52 58

Lag Number

Tr~nsforms- difference (1)

Model Description:

Variable: B990

Regressors: NONE

Non-seasonal differencing: 1 No seasonal component in model.

Parameters:

AR1

<

value originating from estimation

AR2

<

value originating from estimation

AR3

<

value originating from estimation

AR4

<

value originating from estimation

95,00 percent confidence intervals will be generated.

Initial values:

AR1 AR2 AR3 AR4

-,71301 -,42751 -,30661 -,30193

Marquardt constant

=

,001

Adjusted sum of squares = 440454,01

(23)

Iteration History:

Iteration Adj. Sum of Squares Marquardt Constant

1 440306,90 ,00100000

FINAL PARAMETERS:

Number of residuals Standard error

227 44,238893 -1181,33 2370,6599 2384,3597 Log likelihood

AIC SBC

Analysis of Variance:

DF Adj. sum of Squares Residual Variance

Residuals 223 440306,69 1957,0796

ARI AR2 AR3 AR4

Variables in the Model:

B SEB T-RATIO APPROX. PROB.

-,72038113 ,06363988 -11,319649 ,00000000

-,43557251 ,07768679 -5,606777 ,00000006

-,30629118 ,07825554 -3,913987 ,00012062

-,28862013 ,06542609 -4,411392 ,00001599

Error for 8990 from ARIMA, MOD 23 NOCO~

,,0,---,

,5

- ,5

Confidence limits

"-()

« -1, 0 .L.-,~~ ____________ ~ __ ~ _ _ ~ _ _ _ _ _ ~----' ~o eff Ie Ie n t

"-o

«

::

13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55

10 16 22 28 34 40 46 52 58

Lag Number

Error for 8990 from ARIM A, MOD 23 NO CO ~

,,0,---,

,5

- ,5

Confidence limits

.

a. _1 ,0 .L.-,~ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ --' _Co@~iieieTlt

13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55

10 16 22 28 34 40 46 52 58

(24)

No 22

400

300

200

)

100

N

.A

m

33 65 97 129 161 289

17 49 8 1 113 145 177 209 241 273

Sequence number

400

300

200

)

1 00

N

m

89

12 34 56 78 100 122 1 " 166 188 210

Sequence number

B22

1,0

,5

0,0

_..

.

..

-

---I

I-I

-,5

Confidence Limits

LL 0

~oefficient

«

-1,0

13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55

10 16 22 28 34 40 46 52 58

Lag Number

(25)

u.

o

«

1,0

,5

0,0

,,5

822

--

-'-III .

"I"" "

_.

:.

..

..

.L

.

~

.. ,. It

.

Confidence limits

..

a.. -1,0 .J...,~~~~~~~-<:~~~~~~~~~~~--' lIIIcoefficient 13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55

4 10 16 22 28 34 40 46 52 58

Lag Number

Transforms dIfference (1)

Model Description:

variable: B22

Regressors: NONE

Non-seasonal differencing: 1 No seasonal component in model.

Parameters: MAl

MA2

<

value originating from estimation >

<

value originating from estimation >

95,00 percent confidence intervals will be generated.

Initial values:

MAl MA2

,05847 ,27094

Marquardt constant = ,001

Adjusted sum of squares 198541,31

Iteration History:

Iteration Adj.

1 2 3 4 5 6

FINAL PARAMETERS:

Number of residuals Standard error Log likelihood AIC

SBC

Sum of Squares

190356,15 187849,86 187390,80 187318,37 187306,10 187303,92

156 33,992645 -774,48159 1552,9632 1559,0629

Marquardt Constant

(26)

Analysis of Variance:

DF Adj. Sum of Squares Residual Variance

Residuals 154 187303,52 1155,4999

MAl MA2

Variables in the Model:

B SEB T-RATIO APPROX. PROB.

,20307459 ,53333439

,07l70387 ,07069159

2,8321287 7,5445238

,00524254 ,00000000

Error for 822 from ARIMA, MOD 21 NOCON

,,0..---...,

,5

I I . • •

"L

0,0

r-

.••

I I · ,- •• II" , ~

,,5

Confidence limits

u.

o

ex:: -1,0 .L,.~~~.,.,..~...,..--:..,---~~~~..,...~=--' ~oeffiCient 13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55

u.

o

«

10 16 22 28 34 40 46 52 58

Lag Number

Error for 822 from ARIMA, MOD 21 NOCON

1,0 ; - - - ,

. 1 .

..

,1

0,0

---,I!..-' _ _

"_'_--,I",I

1:...--=

.•

,--.• _.. __

.~ I.·_··....--=-~

1 _ _

'

-,5

Confidence Limits

'"

Q.. -1 ,0 .L,.~~-....,.,,-..,...-_:_:~7':'-=-..,..,.-=~=-....J ~o eff Ie 18 n t 13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55

10 16 22 28 3 4 4 0 46 52 58

(27)

No21

N

'"

u.

U

..:

u.

u

..:

'"

120

HXl

80

60

40

20

1 .0

.5

0.0

-.5

-1,0

1

33 65 97

17

"

81 113 Sequence number

821

I

,

.• I

I , I ..

P-I

,.

·r I

13 19 25

10 16 22 28

Lag Number

Transforms difference (1)

129 161 193 225 145 177 209 241

31 3' 43 49 55

34 40 46 52 58

c.... -1 ,0 ....,~~.,....~~~~~~,--~.,....~,...~~~~~.,.... ... ~--' 13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55 4 10 16 22 28 34 40 46 52 58

Lag Number

Transforms difference (1)

""

289 273

Confidence limits

~oeffiCient

Confidence Limits

(28)

821

1,0 ~---,

-5 Confidence Limits

"-o

«

-1 ,0 J-,~.--::r-~~~~~,,-~.,..-~-,-.-~-.,~-,~"":".-~-1 ~oeff ic ie n t

13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55

10 16 22 28 34 40 46 52 58

Lag Number

Transforms difference (1), seasonal difference (1, period 7)

821

1,0 ~---,

,5

0,0

..

II

.1 --.1

...

"-

,

"-

III .•

II •

I

-,

...

-

..

0

.

«

-,5

.!'! Confidence Limits

:::

~

"- -1,0 J-.,~--.-.-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~---' ~oeffic ien t

13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55

4 10 16 22 28 34 40 46 52 58

Lag Number

Transforms dIfference (1), seasonal difference (1. period 7)

Model Description:

Variable: B2l

Regressors: NONE

Non-seasonal differencing: 1 Seasonal differencing: 1 Length of Seasonal Cycle: 7

Parameters:

AR1

<

value originating

MAl

<

value originating

SMA1

<

value originating

from estimation

from estimation

from estimation

95,00 percent confidence intervals will be generated.

Initial values:

AR1 MAl SMA1

,85709 ,95372 ,27444

Marquardt constant ~ ,001

Adjusted sum of squares ~ 35513,115

(29)

Iteration History:

Iteration Adj. Sum of Squares Marquardt Constant

1

2

3

4

5 6

7

FINAl PARAMETERS:

Number of residuals Standard error Log likelihood AIC

SBC

24722,650 24639,678 21478,322 21477,895 21472,881 21459,581 21457,599

97

13,38586 -400,65104 807,30207 815,0262

Analysis of Variance:

OF Adj. Sum of Squares

Residuals 94

AR1 MAl SMA1

Variables

B

,31527227 ,84571976 ,96506633

21457,565

in the Model:

SEB T-RATIO

,13857000 2,275184

,08055088 lO,499200

,06407644 15,061173

,0010000 ,0001000 ,0000100 100,0000000 10,0000000 1,0000000 ,1000000

Residual Variance

179,18125

APPROX. PROB.

,02516718 ,00000000 ,00000000

Errorfor 821 from ARIMA, MOD 39 NOCON

1,0 ~---,

,5

I.... ,

•.

L

0,0 I W . · -,

-,5

Confidence Limits

IL U

<:. -1 ,0 .L.--:-~.,.,.--"--::."...-::-",":,c-""",:--",,,,~=---' ~oeffiCient

13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55

10 16 22 28 34 40 46 52 58

(30)

LL '-' <>:

'"

'"

Cl.

No 36

M

"'

Error for 821 from ARIMA, MOD 39 NOCON

1,0,---,

5

0,0

+1.-

...

,--' ...

- ...

--' ...

pLy---....

~r"___

.... -....

~

...

-",~

...

w--~

... c.L___..,

-,5

Confidence Limits

"coeffiCient 13 19 25 31 3'

4 10 16 22 28 34 40 58

Lag Number

300 , - - - ,

200

1 00

161 1 9 3 2 2 5 2 5 7 2 8 9

49 51 113 145 177 2D9 241 273

Sequence number

300

200

100

22 36 50 64 78 92 106 120

(31)

836

1,0

,5

1

0,0 -' IL •

IL

I hL

.IL

a

LI. 1_ _I~ • • " 1 1 1 1 1

1

-,5

LL

U

<: -1,0

13 19 25 31

10 16 22 28

Lag Number

Transforms difference (1)

836

1,0

,5

0,0 LL

U

<:

-,5

'"

1:

'"

a. -1,0

13 19 25 31

10 16 22 28

Lag Number

Transforms difference (1)

Model Description:

Variable: B36

Regressors: NONE

Non-seasonal differencing: 1 Seasonal differencing: 0 Length of Seasonal Cycle: 7

Parameters:

r i l " l

37 43

34 40 46

37 43

34 40 46

ARl

<

value origir_ating

MAl

<

value origilOating

SMAl

<

value origilOating

SMA2

<

value originating

Confidence Limits

~oeffic ient

49 55 52 58

Confidence Limits

~oefficient

49 55 52 58

from estimation

>

from estimation

>

from estimation

>

from estimation

>

95,00 percent confidence intervals will be generated.

Initial values:

ARl MAl SMAl SMA2

(32)

Marquardt constant = ,001

Adjusted sum of squares 180666,31

Iteration History:

Iteration Adj. Sum of Squares Marquardt Constant

1

2 3

175507,2:) 175343,99 175335,26

,00100000 ,00010000 ,00001000

FINAL PARAMETERS:

Number of residuals Standard error Log likelihood AIC

SBC

124 37,751018 -625,7088 1259,4176 1270,6987

Analysis of Variance:

DF Adj. Sum of Squares Residual Variance

Residuals 120 175334,55 1425,1394

AR1 MAl SMA1 SMA2

LL

U

Variables

in

the Model:

B SEB T-RATIO APPROX. PROB.

,36906655 ,11257488 3,278409 ,00136604

,89671886 ,05649737 15,871868 ,00000000

-,04899638 ,09701129 -,505058 ,61444406

-,26781951 ,10100346 -2,651588 ,00909348

Errorfor 836 from ARIMA, MOD 47 NOCON

1,0 ~---,

,5

I

~II". II LI~..

0,0 +-~~~~~rT~~~~~~~~~~~~'-~

... -II.

'1 I. ••.

"II

II..

'1" •

-,5

Confidence limits

<{ -1,0 .L.. _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ~_....J ~oeffic Ie I1t

13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55

10 16 22 28 34 40 46 52 58

(33)

LL

o

«

'"

E

rro r fo r

B 36

fro

mAR I M A, MOD 47 NO CON

1,0 ; - - - ,

,5

I.

.11 _

IL.

_

0,0 +-~~YD~~r..u~~~~~~~

....

~~~T1

• . •

".'. "I

, . , -.. ' .

'I

I • •

-,5

Confidence limits

'"

a.... -1,0 .L~~~~~ _ _ ~~~~~~ _ _ _ -~_~~ _ _ ' ~coeff·lcient 13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55 10 16 22 28 34 40 46 52 58

Lag Number

No 114

300 , - - - ,

200

100

..

OJ

33 65 97 129 161 193 225 257 289

17 49 81 113 145 177 209 241 273

Sequence number

B 1 14

1,0

,5

0,0

I

-,5 Confidence Limits

LL 0

~oeffic ient

«

-1,0

13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55

10 16 22 28 34 40 46 52 58

Lag Number

(34)

8114

,,0,---,

LL

o

«

.!!'

-,5

Confidence L'lmits

'"

0... -1 ,0 ~~___:,~~C"~~--:-!~__:_!~_::!:___.__:!:___._:_!~_:_!~--' lIIIcoe ff ic ie n t

13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55

10 16 22 28 34 40 46 52 58

Lag Number

Transforms difference (1)

Model Description:

Variable: B114

Regressors: NONE

Non-seasonal differencing: 1 No seasonal component in model.

Parameters:

AR1

MAl

< value originating from estimation

>

<

value originating from estimation

>

95,00 percent confidence intervals will be generated.

Initial values:

ARl

MAl

,26173 ,67938

Marquardt constant ~ ,001

Adjusted sum of squares 302015,23

Iteration History:

Iteration Adj. Sum of Squares

1 2 3

4

FINAL PARAMETERS:

Number of residuals Standard errOr Log likelihood AlC

SBC

283038,80 278404,17 276768,16 276672,52

302 30,299696 -1458,3643 2920,7286 2928,1495

Marquardt Constant

(35)

Analysis of Variance:

DF Adj. Sum of Squares Residual Variance

Residuals 300 276672,43 918,07158

AR1

MAl

variables in the Model:

B

,29688157 ,90894109

SEB

,06633466 ,02918710

T-RATIO

4,475512 31,141878

APPROX. PROB.

,00001084 ,00000000

Errorfor B114 from ARIMA. MOD 39

NOCOr-1,0

,---~

,5

-,5

Confidence limits

lL U

«

-1,0 .L. _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

-..._---l

~oeffic ient

13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55

lL

U ..::

..

10 16 22 28 34 40 46 52 58

Lag Number

E rro r fo r B 11 4 fro mAR I M A, MOD 39 NO

COr-1,0.---,

,5

-,5

Confidence limits

..

Q.. -1,0 .L. _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

-._-l

~oefficient

13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55

4 10 16 22 28 34 40 46 52 58

(36)

NO 131

200 , - - - ,

'"

'"

u.

(J

«

u.

(J

«

100

J

129 161 193 225 17 49 81 113 145 177 2 0' 241

Sequence 11 U m be r

8131

1,0

,5

0,0

.,5

~ 1 ,0

13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55

4 10 16 22 28 34 40 46 52 58

Lag Number

Transforms difference (1)

8131

1,0

,5

0, 0

t-.._"La.or-y...1 •

__ '1.

..,·-·

...

U'""'"{'"-....

.., .-.

,.1""r~

...

~~

...,

,,5

257 273

Confidence limits

~oeffiCient

Confidence Limits

'"

CL -l,D -'--.--~::r-~...,..~~~.--.,--~~~-r-~~--.--~~,....~-' ~o e (fie ie n t

13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55

10 16 22 28 34 40 46 52

Lag Number

Transforms difference (1)

Model Description:

Variable: B131

Regressors: NONE

Non-seasonal differencing: 1 No seasonal component in model.

(37)

Parameters:

MAl < value originating from estimation >

MA2 < value originating from estimation >

MA3 < value originating from estimation >

95,00 percent confidence intervals will be generated.

Initial values:

MAl MA2 MA3

,16848 ,17969 ,17177

Marquardt constant ~ ,001

Adjusted sum of squares 184845,23

Iteration History:

Iteration Adj. Sum of Squares Marquardt constant

1

2

3

4

5

FINAL PARAMETERS:

Number of residuals Standard error Log likelihood AIC

SBC

172957,25 172553,61 167610,04 166965,00 166958,41

149 32,848822 -734,58089 1475,1618 1484,1736

Analysis of Variance:

DF Adj. Sum of Squares

Residuals 146 166957,59

MAl MA2 MA3

variables in the Model:

B

,34627462 ,33007279 ,22885977

SEB

,08511034 ,09322567 ,08672391

T-RATIO

4,0685375 3,5405786 2,6389466

,00100000 ,00010000 ,00001000 ,00000100 ,00000010

Residual Variance

1079,0451

APPROX. PROB.

(38)

Error for 8131 from ARIMA, MOD_58 NOCOI'

, , 0 , - - - ,

,5

-,5

Con"fldence Limits

LL

U

<X: -1 ,0 .L._-C_---,_---,_..,..._-,-._-.-_.."., ___ -,-,-_-l ~o eff ic ie n t 13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55

LL

U

«

.'!!

::

10 16 22 28 34 40 46 52 58

Lag Number

E rro r fo r 8131 fro mAR I M A, MOD 58 NO COl'

1,0 ~---,

,5

J

.. • • •

LL .I

.L. ..

0,0

t---.e-L ...

.-. I

•.

I""

..'I,

r

...

I".

.uu,..., ....

I "

-,ran''-I

. . . .

-,5

Confidence Limits

..

a.. -1 ,0 .L._-c ____ ---,,--...,..._-,-._-.-_..,,., ___ -,-,-_-l "CoeH Ie ie n t 13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55

1D 18 22 28 34 40 46 52 58

(39)

LAMPIRAN DATA

Kode Tgi Penjualan Struk

Jun Jul Agst Sept Ok! Nov Des Jan Feb Mar 1 1 48,41 28,33 29,11 34,74 32,64 29,61 27,78 29,70 61,54

2 39,46 47,25 30,84 46,27 26,52 7,49 29,22 26,82 27,04

3 28,22 36,78 25,44 58,67 35,46 21,81 11,13

4 41,62 34,32 23,90 27,11 30,01 24,91 18,18 5 34,18 42,22 10,86 40,32 51,31 20,89 27,86

6 34,19 52,39 10,69 66,80 28,65 12,40 33,09 2,55

7 57,65 44,25 23,59 57,22 38,86 11,36 28,01 3,18

8 45,17 35,21 38,93 29,40 29,67 12,65 34,21

9 44,04 42,84 38,41 28,50 41,43 12,43 32,70 3,18 10 62,71 29,98 35,09 25,90 40,12 23,31 13,89

11 28,97 42,62 36,72 24,22 34,42 41,54 15,12

12 36,91 22,97 14,81 30,19 42,45 33,91 27,89

13 27,97 32,41 29,52 38,85 26,47 17,07 16,71

14 23,01 22,51 18,88 63,91 27,00 33,76 17,81 29,71

15 29,72 23,91 17,66 34,62 30,86 50,99 34,38 52,13

16 30,15 37,51 51,58 25,53 29,74 17,77 38,35 21,18

17 29,49 13,57 34,24 39,55 50,79 28,88 16,05

18 22,42 18,20 46,57 24,86 31,91 41,79 27,62 18,13 19 34,80 20,61 32,71 20,76 53,50 29,55 30,64

20 28,35 24,08 46,57 87,25 36,70 37,25 15,60

21 39,10 45,56 57,62 57,32 27,83 47,91 31,32 52,15

22 51,88 29,87 87,89 34,48 21,56 54,84 22,63 95,79

23 41,02 56,34 46,73 42,10 26,82 45,04 40,59 60,69

24 54,53 22,23 54,51 20,82 25,20 41,98 18,97 17,36

25 30,70 21,11 55,49 22,52 45,58 37,42 62,82 28,50

26 24,77 20,69 34,81 29,26 28,70 15,71 16,21 22,74

27 35,11 30,45 39,48 35,88 19,05 10,58 11,25 14,94

28 25,93 28,82 33,08 21,37 22,92 15,25 55,31 26,44

29 31,86 27,04 35,43 40,70 10,65 7,95 63,61

30 36,07 22,53 44,41 21,54 24,60 14,83 122,65 18,72

31 32,96 44,10 24,80 25,39 119,01 27,78

2 1 38,70 21,87 25,21 35,72 8,40 17,18 46,75 16,13 11,86 27,98

2 28,11 26,84 30,40 23,51 17,39 42,45 26,68 6,03 25,67 30,90

3 14,51 32,11 56,02 16,84 17,19 47,22 39,56 22,63 6,03 14,58

4 23,92 30,41 25,47 16,22 16,22 18,86 89,11 15,29 9,94 3,85

5 16,15 52,31 35,21 15,48 49,55 34,02 92,62 20,88 4,81 13,86

6 16,62 47,43 29,17 29,54 16,63 37,01 7,86 29,72 25,05

7 39,78 39,89 21,96 39,29 11,55 31,13 12,48 18,59 19,94 8 73,04 16,47 43,10 35,40 10,23 19,33 14,83 13,23 24,72

9 33,45 22,53 24,37 11,06 24,55 27,56 20,78 35,76 23,12 24,86

10 26,75 30,64 35,59 22,53 12,58 16,53 37,90 11,46 28,66 19,75

11 22,20 21,95 34,67 18,46 19,00 23,66 21,45 15,43 17,93 29,18

12 20,96 28,70 16,10 31,12 20,29 21,69 26,33 11,64 18,81 15,40

13 12,01 40,61 12,20 25,99 16,10 33,50 7,26 12,93 15,36 13,06

14 28,08 28,20 8,13 27,90 13,84 26,76 28,85 14,19 24,63 11,25

15 37,58 16,16 31,13 42,86 7,98 36,65 33,88 22,49 16,75 19,01

(40)

17 25,58 37,07 15,53 11,76 29,06 20,94 36,26 12,71 18,15 18 21,87 24,10 25,90 12,52 23,08 33,67 29,06 15,33 20,38 18,74

19 26,68 28,99 21,76 16,60 26,95 24,26 23,32 17,39 9,58 10,29

20 34,63 27,02 4,69 36,63 22,39 20,42 38,02 13,39 32,01 18,07

21 46,73 24,94 20,37 38,88 20,21 14,89 29,22 13,44 24,29 23,66

22 35,81 20,40 34,21 20,69 20,53 15,78 40,01 5,40 15,98 20,73

23 22,23 37,17 16,22 13,85 13,29 9,68 29,50 9,75 4,01 20,65 24 14,35 16,84 27,34 8,77 8,30 9,62 36,81 10,96 3,85 17,77

25 21,83 14,88 25,24 26,84 13,57 6,91 28,21 30,03 20,27

26 7,52 17,88 27,38 18,93 13,98 18,03 19,26 26,72 8,08 33,54

27 18,48 57,26 17,92 18,54 14,56 25,87 5,50 18,39 17,01 13,99

28 31,02 35,65 25,44 21,95 6,53 14,61 16,92 8,74 37,10 31,20

29 34,34 19,23 20,00 8,66 7,64 19,81 17,33 21,63 51,33

30 35,32 29,48 19,40 17,76 9,78 36,91 8,60 34,01 39,52

31 19,52 42,15 13,08 14,32 62,87 17,68

3 1 3,21 9,56 6,38 5,27 34,59 8,59 9,53 26,82 29,89 38,14

2 2,97 28,10 8,54 2,17 29,66 26,14 21,05 13,68 26,18 60,29

3 1,32 21,19 5,55 22,03 24,92 30,19 4,95 16,33 57,56

4 17,03 4,03 22,70 10,16 32,85 33,21 9,81 18,77 55,26

5 18,88 6,00 9,25 31,91 24,40 7,38 17,61 53,15

6 17,53 15,72 23,69 11,97 14,89 15,47 42,35

7 6,94 16,11 8,67 18,40 19,52 8,26 43,80 29,25 40,79

8 30,80 28,59 5,69 2,68 30,25 24,40 30,96 58,21

9 2,76 54,92 13,82 5,03 38,52 9,10 20,81 23,60 12,47 10 23,68 12,88 14,70 6,52 14,26 20,64 13,87 16,30 2,59 4,66

11 28,25 18,70 3,09 4,49 19,48 46,33 19,48 41,55 3,32 3,17

12 19,48 10,37 7,52 14,40 33,61 17,09 1,93 30,39 1,04 12,09

13 26,02 9,36 14,70 2,02 14,30 2,68 10,39 26,71 1,14 31,92 14 29,63 19,10 2,64 7,19 12,68 30,85 34,82 14,82 51,27

15 32,06 5,62 13,23 16,25 24,85 36,94 31,66

16 17,92 6,57 18,56 34,41 21,41 11,48 13,01 22,59 24,03 62,47

17 6,18 1,48 26,50 13,61 5,12 8,58 29,10 10,41 24,40

18 5,39 8,13 2,96 26,77 4,63 7,34 20,61 20,69 27,21

19 8,54 2,42 24,02 44,34 8,73 12,53 24,75 49,58 22,68

20 14,38 7,95 26,87 47,34 30,15 2,33 5,17 12,90 53,44 32,06

21 19,93 8,75 32,00 38,19 19,23 12,84 3,92 17,00 20,10 26,02

22 20,29 8,81 32,80 5,68 22,99 32,19 25,60 7,97 48,72 23 2,91 19,39 23,92 1,37 22,70 41,20 1,16 27,27 6,33 28,45

24 10,24 25,03 8,73 7,69 25,16 18,67 6,65 29,00 25,50 17,67

25 24,93 32,34 1,25 1,29 19,45 7,48 14,38 28,36 18,66

26 19,27 62,13 8,10 58,42 33,43 2,10 34,98 24,36 34,74 27 35,60 24,06 23,56 3,63 39,63 7,96 12,69 37,02 20,58 28,83

28 29,06 21,54 43,74 21,41 29,02 6,71 27,21 33,85 25,68 27,38

29 9,97 22,74 24,60 11,96 37,93 26,63 53,88

30 15,22 14,28 4,48 22,03 24,24 29,85 44,57 26,39

31 12,88 13,71 27,23 45,66 69,62

4 1 63,57 40,24 29,04 36,29 13,68 59,70 73,91 10,62 15,16 83,07

2 52,80 30,37 42,89 28,68 21,89 63,17 70,93 16,95 17,05 33,50

3 25,19 33,85 48,49 30,82 26,68 44,44 85,21 19,30 7,09 19,24

4 45,28 41,59 38,86 29,85 52,07 43,37 148,65 18,47 18,77 20,78

5 42,43 34,31 31,31 46,08 51,19 40,94 102,13 22,43 5,48 19,87 6 22,79 60,99 38,97 53,21 29,82 38,99 1,97 16,96 26,52

7 32,30 52,75 44,39 37,57 18,25 35,45 8,64 18,60 40,26

(41)

9 48,71 36,51 31,93 18,22 8,76 48,09 68,41 9,45 28,14 27,60

10 51,72 39,19 40,44 31,18 28,65 36,24 52,28 9,95 18,04 27,15

11 34,10 32,81 29,15 22,30 22,95 22,31 48,92 16,10 32,91 39,70

12 19,53 46,28 49,57 18,37 38,95 31,33 70,94 15,29 32,63 26,14

13 22,56 48,21 30,39 26,75 35,70 36,14 45,35 9,28 10,69 16,64

14 28,37 44,87 38,31 44,10 20,35 21,63 44,58 9,78 18,96 20,98

15 52,30 28,97 44,87 34,98 15,38 40,75 25,43 23,17 17,63 33,12 16 50,63 31,29 43,74 10,04 20,15 40,26 17,67 26,19 26,90 41,52

17 48,14 34,77 20,85 25,96 70,98 51,31 18,89 18,36 26,02 18 41,51 21,27 50,45 6,55 20,17 62,68 47,08 23,66 0,84 24,30

19 30,38 44,77 24,95 15,24 72,25 40,86 23,94 24,02 4,48 10,86

20 29,28 59,16 13,22 65,30 51,30 29,59 55,94 24,65 4,10 25,47

21 21,60 46,08 46,75 28,27 20,40 30,19 78,18 18,70 1,55 22,97

22 49,67 43,85 39,08 39,14 24,03 32,79 42,95 11,36 1,39 80,76

23 58,36 46,29 34,21 35,52 38,25 33,43 20,55 18,11 40,84

24 34,48 28,26 33,00 24,17 36,36 33,79 89,05 14,95 12,74 16,22

25 37,17 43,34 49,39 28,05 48,11 20,55 45,98 27,46 10,11 25,72

26 21,82 28,46 36,15 24,22 54,55 37,78 35,13 15,41 14,66 35,31

27 24,92 35,47 8,79 11,87 19,52 47,49 19,76 15,72 14,60 29,91

28 71,55 24,08 14,15 39,62 24,67 33,51 25,14 19,01 20,36 39,51

29 68,10 16,62 24,42 20,75 20,84 57,22 22,67 31,11 95,46

30 55,25 19,93 32,41 14,57 16,59 59,87 12,39 62,08 44,21

31 34,69 41,09 23,82 24,51 67,08 42,42

6 1 9,24 13,69 16,00 36,22 10,38

2 9,96 13,79 7,76 34,33 17,32

3 12,69 19,42 8,65 36,74 10,06

4 5,72 11,01 8,37 24,97 13,22

5 8,45 13,57 7,77 34,16 45,02

6 11,63 8,16 13,51 53,29 39,77 7 15,99 8,29 20,50 26,37

8 27,10 1,51 13,57 31,55 16,08

9 18,40 3,01 15,69 18,08 19,49

10 26,35 18,13 20,80 20,93 11 22,25 16,04 13,66 38,70

12 8,09 1,52 14,16 19,11 44,65

13 19,19 11,97 21,27 28,83 36,70

14 18,61 5,45 16,40 29,16 37,97

15 16,86 7,31 27,34 26,56 16,35 16 25,43 0,75 41,28 23,67 19,19

17 13,06 14,82 23,61 41,48

18 5,45 10,83 33,20 18,67 30,90

19 7,28 10,24 28,38 18,78 13,79 20 16,66 32,49 27,39

21 8,38 23,89 23,23

22 1,13 12,46 65,47 14,51

23 11,58 18,48 36,28 14,37

24 13,73 7,80 29,93 13,10 25 25,72 7,79 35,02 16,48

26 22,35 32,60 26,24 11,70

27 19,63 34,63 32,52 11,62

28 40,47 14,02 24,78 9,59 29 20,30 11,90 26,68 11,97

30 12,80 14,48 32,29 5,30

(42)

7 1 46,64 32,05 19,87 49,38 22,36 37,00 28,87 10,64 23,20

2 43,21 33,72 18,42 52,08 40,66 29,99 36,22 34,39 46,50

3 43,13 15,62 6,93 70,64 43,29 76,26 40,85 12,08 3,22 4 46,25 35,94 4,17 52,30 42,73 75,30 24,60 13,55

5 33,93 25,86 5,40 76,86 56,84 105,55 22,79 14,49 3,12

6 26,24 39,06 6,53 41,66 43,57 28,43 25,56 5,25

7 30,91 14,62 29,37 37,60 14,32 19,16 47,42

8 29,50 18,54 1,05 33,28 32,63 16,83 31,89 43,29

9 22,91 56,57 1,26 38,55 40,72 44,58 20,01 17,26 19,82

10 38,29 31,88 19,04 37,74 58,30 26,61 16,75 5,74 11 49,20 16,29 26,70 22,75 41,06 39,34 13,06 1,44

12 25,34 16,68 52,94 45,88 31,26 30,87 19,75 3,21 13 18,44 24,86 43,34 45,00 52,45 19,80 11,83

14 37,44 15,30 34,18 42,34 47,04 24,94 20,23

15 30,90 19,24 34,99 26,13 35,66 20,27 16,40

16 34,84 11,19 24,30 6,47 17,22 54,19 6,93

17 25,87 11,41 27,53 6,11 23,08 4,46

18 15,68 16,05 36,91 22,44 6,04

19 13,96 15,50 92,80 31,63 12,10

20 26,44 20,81 104,70 10,92 13,82 21,29 15,58

21 33,37 8,69 41,70 22,72 50,77 27,47 19,47

22 39,08 8,72 21,97 18,66 53,67 23,09 28,03

23 45,55 19,58 52,75 21,08 41,86 16,80 22,95

24 70,17 7,43 22,81 33,05 15,84 63,03 24,98 25,58

25 33,15 15,02 25,07 28,73 11,40 51,87 56,52 31,01

26 30,41 15,03 43,81 49,09 22,42 24,38 22,49 21,77 27 28,26 32,50 35,19 39,90 21,69 17,69 14,00 19,79

28 29,38 7,53 40,84 25,30 21,46 26,89 28,54 20,89

29 22,08 5,09 46,32 31,91 44,21 24,33 40,15 26,09

30 32,80 8,89 39,19 19,87 33,14 27,83 124,20 17,91

31 13,26 28,48 39,86 80,19 36,39

8 1 4,96

2 7,18

3

4

5

6 11,46

7 16,43

8 11,23

9 10,33

10 14,10

11 13,21

12 9,18

13 38,53

14 26,26

15 22,32

16 7,05

17 3,73

18 10,45

19 6,31

20 16,45

21 15,70

22 16,13

(43)

24 10,06

25 15,51

26 7,91

27 15,12

28 26,22

29 5,94

30 7,46

31

9 1 4,56 16,03 7,89 21,60 44,00 37,54 12,34 22,91 14,09

2 12,45 10,02 8,38 37,50 39,99 36,37 11,98 25,11 27,09

3 5,02 45,90 9,39 42,95 27,15 44,00 40,26 12,16 144,58

4 9,17 63,63 3,29 34,95 50,97 36,68 17,90 18,57 74,39

5 24,68 54,55 4,03 19,63 41,05 63,46 35,25 18,47 49,26

6 40,93 28,59 18,66 21,01 47,60 25,29 11,75 72,78

7 20,29 18,05 38,87 37,12 49,68 33,73 17,57 23,10

8 5,28 4,67 18,61 36,55 46,56 39,97 31,94 10,06

9 9,76 12,43 23,33 14,18 22,65 46,01 18,28 28,90 18,45

10 10,29 10,09 28,80 26,85 47,27 42,48 29,42 35,97 7,75

11 12,22 16,32 26,77 4,48 57,18 44,34 20,79 36,44 13,36

12 15,50 10,25 22,16 14,80 44,94 22,22 36,23 13,10 1,41

13 35,66 15,54 5,74 21,30 35,47 23,93 25,94 11,34 12,47

14 27,43 9,49 33,96 10,13 20,09 21,30 44,87 22,31 15,87

15 7,30 12,70 29,55 13,90 46,14 17,28 46,99 33,84 9,39

16 11,93 10,39 26,97 7,59 23,82 25,45 37,58 40,83 4,42

17 16,51 18,05 4,29 52,49 39,74 27,45 31,03 38,25 18 15,55 2,75 15,88 28,55 51,94 43,31 37,70 60,32

19 29,16 8,81 15,90 28,38 23,50 19,60 25,84 79,74 97,08

20 33,17 5,74 22,75 37,61 29,41 30,06 19,91 26,34 134,24

21 24,87 12,65 28,44 25,35 38,29 60,85 23,04 36,50 89,44

22 30,52 12,13 7,77 35,41 18,84 41,62 61,81 140,49 150,26 23 51,09 11,37 3,26 25,33 26,68 18,45 65,74 68,48 138,50

24 43,33 10,09 41,84 30,98 26,89 29,01 21,64 24,58 10,81

25 48,57 15,09 13,87 45,89 31,08 21,36 51,15 12,31 3,89 26 65,60 6,28 16,12 29,47 20,53 11,49 35,76 24,02 74,38

27 41,41 12,39 24,58 47,55 29,53 12,66 27,97 19,75 111,41

28 21,80 13,41 31,72 25,74 35,97 16,60 27,34 23,14 149,24

29 14,31 12,91 22,43 10,05 27,81 13,54 26,06 200,82

30 22,89 1,09 14,39 18,14 22,32 16,44 45,52 146,67

31 25,62 6,00 43,94 38,87 47,12 19,15

10 1 1,59 11,95

2 1,29 2,97 4,05

3 12,45 2,63

4 22,27

5 5,42

6 28,15 9,74

7 43,29 18,26

8 16,38 23,48

9 30,60 6,65

10 15,85 4,74

11 30,76

12 21,01

13 28,64

14 9,86

(44)

16

17 10,04

18 19 20

21 1,02

22

23 11,03

24 12,49

25 8,74

26 8,53

27 13,64

28 23,11

29 30 31

11 1 7,44

2 1,43 2,07

3 3,35

4 4,31

5 7,37

6 3,28

7 7,90

8 1,23 1,73

9 8,61 20,78

10 4,32 13,16

11 10,67 26,09

12 4,81 13,36

13 9,60 21,37

14 19,23 20,74

15 8,14 14,49

16 2,99 28,85

17 16,99

18 3,81 11,52

19 1,73 28,08

20 27,81

21 33,08

22 1,79 54,15

23 22,20 30,99

24 28,54 7,88

25 20,45 7,91

26 9,98 4,76

27 15,29 3,28

28 13,17 1,48

29 5,10

30 9,94

31 16,60

13 1 250,16 150,81 196,17 156,07 83,51 89,87 173,00 73,93 162,95 250,20

2 213,25 147,82 165,57 101,68 92,53 95,88 171,86 152,37 101,44 292,88

3 164,84 159,57 203,47 92,57 83,56 126,99 305,15 145,69 102,19 109,48

4 148,88 147,35 110,91 91,99 96,77 201,90 326,61 125,48 113,63 70,18

5 148,32 132,06 116,68 111,44 125,93 171,60 283,25 127,08 152,76 108,63

6 134,61 212,28 105,76 197,83 7,06 123,52 113,34 135,97 106,50

(45)

8 202,67 128,04 220,45 66,46 82,14 111,62 140,44 192,70 166,14

9 204,48 236,05 157,68 93,58 53,77 123,27 143,62 118,15 168,10 125,57

10 235,51 172,36 141,26 84,42 67,29 121,55 158,20 174,70 73,62 65,03

11 148,14 125,18 112,60 73,70 97,80 80,69 165,59 193,73 143,31 156,84

12 145,84 207,69 77,92 98,92 73,20 94,72 140,31 169,93 132,98 174,94

13 133,97 186,80 76,74 87,62 82,43 119,24 146,76 102,25 121,77 138,05

14 189,94 158,81 76,22 103,40 68,06 138,56 138,72 130,65 212,26 178,46

15 199,67 135,57 110,69 121,13 62,85 141,02 146,12 156,84 223,34 219,08

16 176,53 114,33 149,32 102,36 60,06 201,88 139,68 262,02 140,31 386,77

17 118,52 145,06 91,91 65,22 215,57 258,61 191,70 82,00 149,91

18 138,86 130,65 119,31 101,52 93,51 209,23 198,39 182,57 73,39 129,53 19 167,94 138,33 95,65 107,65 159,96 135,85 166,13 193,66 82,41 105,95

20 135,67 170,71 135,47 242,92 8,34 116,97 199,19 133,30 141,63 152,02

21 170,07 150,68 188,81 164,26 63,21 99,96 262,52 168,87 143,90 145,83

22 237,12 113,86 273,05 115,58 65,31 136,88 205,57 123,60 149,91 155,32

23 167,15 222,50 114,66 93,74 123,66 136,90 196,15 130,52 156,83 117,85

24 238,39 100,05 124,44 90,42 109,45 143,98 272,55 140,90 121,41 152,80

25 135,39 140,59 104,71 78,66 104,72 102,93 210,85 193,91 164,71 198,13

26 126,61 151,26 87,59 63,28 97,07 118,85 103,51 183,74 141,80 112,76

27 127,99 164,71 108,05 78,50 95,74 150,11 105,27 116,73 138,98 98,12 28 159,60 153,68 111,90 112,66 81,94 122,61 169,02 223,46 132,22 126,28

29 176,94 104,41 84,72 88,06 109,37 105,69 104,32 339,34 234,98

30 196,75 96,52 98,16 77,99 90,34 146,34 124,25 635,84 166,02

31 127,99 145,48 75,94 240,63 511,44 248,66

14 1 0,81 1,24 2,51 2,80 6,73

2 0,45 1,28 0,26 2,39 5,33

3 1,37 0,65 0,50

4 0,98

5 1,01 2,72

6 1,14 1,57 2,30

7 3,16 2,25 2,32

8 2,00 1,38 2,86 2,30

9 2,78 0,34 1,83 0,94 2,55

10 1,35 1,25 1,90 0,95

11 0,38 4,82 1,44 4,32

12 1,20 0,36 0,43 2,88

13 1,22 1,99 0,46 1,41

14 0,38 0,36 3,78

15 1,43 4,56 5,21

16 1,99 0,92 1,33 2,00 0,85

17 0,61 4,58 0,91 0,45

18 1,48 2,26 1,53 0,89

19 1,82 2,14 1,59 1,85 2,45

20 12,71 0,47 0,95

21 0,39 2,64 9,71 1,51 1,29 3,29

22 3,39 1,58 3,37 4,26

23

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