your
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1
Please see important disclosure information on the final page of this documentwww.relitrade.com
Analyst:Robertus Yanuar Hardy (62 21 5790 5455 ext. 204) Shanti Dwi Jayanti (Research Associate)
robertus@reliance-securities.com shanty@reliance-securities.com
Industry Research
April 29
th, 2015
3M 2015 Domestic Car & Motorcycle Sales Volume
Domestic Car and Motorcycle sales volume in the first 3 months of 2015 declined 14% and
19% YoY each respectively, compared to the same period last year.
What happened in the market
Most of the brands in the market were suffering from declining sales volume in the first 3 months of this year,
compared to the same period last year, except Peugeot and Honda that are managed to increase their sales volume
by 14% and 23% each respectively. The increasing sales of Honda Brio, Mobilio, HRV, and Jazz are still are still
continue to be the key factor for Honda to increase their market share to 16.1%, from 15.7% in the same period last
year, while Astra’s market share is falling to 49% from 53% in the same period last year.
Difficult time for Indonesia’s automotive industry also reflect in the motorcycle market. Where total sales volume
falling 19% in the first 3 months of this year, compared to the same period last year.
The management of Astra said that this year the industry is still have to struggle with lower levels of economic
growth, depressed commodity markets and increased competition. We see the high interest rate as also the key
factor that makes consumer to postponed their decision to acquire new vehicles. We expect a more challenging
situation in the upcoming months, before the annual Indonesia Motor Show in August, that is expected to boost
sales volume until the end of this year.
Indonesia Automotive Sector Updates
Domest ic Car Sales Change
(units) Mar-14 Feb-15 Mar-15 Y oY MoM 3M 2014 3M 2015 3M yoy Mar-14 Feb-15 Mar-15 3M 2014 3M 2015
Toyota 39,044 26,800 31,854 -18.4% 18.9% 113,662 85,828 -24% 34.5% 30.2% 32.0% 35% 30%
Daihatsu 16,376 14,523 16,258 -0.7% 11.9% 51,448 45,317 -12% 14.5% 16.4% 16.4% 15.7% 16.1%
Isuzu 2,448 2,160 1,836 -25.0% -15.0% 7,920 6,048 -24% 2.2% 2.4% 1.8% 2.4% 2.1%
Peugeot 2 5 3 50.0% -40.0% 14 16 14% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -
UD Truc ks 140 - - - - 240 - - 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% - -Subt ot al for Ast ra 58,010 43,488 49,951 -13.9% 14.9% 173,284 137,209 -21% 51.3% 49.0% 50.2% 53% 49%
Astra's LCGC 10,981 7,301 8,717 -20.6% 19.4% 33,328 23,452 -30% 9.7% 8.2% 8.8% 10% 8% Honda 14,529 13,682 13,951 -4.0% 2.0% 36,079 44,488 23% 12.8% 15.4% 14.0% 11% 16% Suzuki 14,013 10,017 12,387 -11.6% 23.7% 42,281 35,087 -17% 12.4% 11.3% 12.5% 13% 12% Mitsubishi 13,668 11,220 10,212 -25.3% -9.0% 41,464 32,797 -21% 12.1% 12.6% 10.3% 13% 12% Nissan 4,155 3,375 5,061 21.8% 50.0% 12,460 10,238 -18% 3.7% 3.8% 5.1% 3.8% 3.6% Others 8,692 6,959 7,848 -9.7% 12.8% 22,932 22,526 -2% 7.7% 7.8% 7.9% 7% 8%
Subt ot al for Non Ast ra 55,057 45,253 49,459 -10.2% 9.3% 155,216 145,136 -6% 48.7% 51.0% 49.8% 47% 51%
Tot al Domest ic 113,067 88,741 99,410 -12.1% 12.0% 328,500 282,345 -14%
Total Domestic LCGC 13,443 11,923 15,501 15.3% 30.0% 43,999 41,549 -6% 11.9% 13.4% 15.6% 13% 15%
Domest ic Mot orcycle Sales Change
(units) Mar-14 Feb-15 Mar-15 Y oY MoM 3M 2014 3M 2015 3M yoy Mar-14 Feb-15 Mar-15 3M 2014 3M 2015
Ast ra Honda 463,070 376,973 376,571 -18.7% -0.1% 1,253,817 1,093,394 -13% 63.8% 67.8% 68.9% 63% 68%
Yamaha 226,897 150,840 145,609 -35.8% -3.5% 614,931 436,692 -29% 31.3% 27.1% 26.7% 31% 27%
Suzuki 25,160 11,010 9,009 -64.2% -18.2% 83,072 31,408 -62% 3.5% 2.0% 1.6% 4% 2%
Kawasaki 10,127 16,968 14,736 45.5% -13.2% 30,541 42,486 39% 1.4% 3.1% 2.7% 2% 3%
TVS 375 300 244 -34.9% -18.7% 1,715 1,063 -38% - - - - -Subt ot al for Non Ast ra 262,559 179,118 169,598 -35.4% -5.3% 730,259 511,649 -30% 36.2% 32.2% 31.1% 37% 32%
Tot al Domest ic 725,629 556,091 546,169 -24.7% -1.8% 1,984,076 1,605,043 -19%
Source: Astra, Gaikindo, Reliance research Change
Change
Market Share
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Analysts:
Robertus Yanuar Hardy
62 21 5790 5455 ext. 204 robertus@reliance-securities.com
Shanti Dwi Jayanti
(Research Associate)
shanti@reliance-securities.com
Equity Research
April 29
th, 2015
Expecting a challenging year ahead
Declining automotive sales, lower economic growth rate, weaker commodity
prices, and high interest rate will increase challenges for Astra’s business
in the future that will face a challenging year ahead.
1Q 2015 Financial Performance and Business Developments
The company’s Revenue and Net Income declined 9% and 16% each respectively
in the first quarter of this year, compared to the same period last year. This
result is primarily due to reduced contributions from automotive operations and
agribusiness where falling CPO price also contributes to lower income from this
segment.
The absence of significant new product launches, tougher competition, and
manufacturing overcapacity due to weakening demand as a result of general
slow-down in domestic economy continued to have a negative impact on
earnings in the automotive segment. Automotive component business also
made a lower contribution due to a weakening of the Rupiah exchange rate,
where Astra Otoparts’ net income fall by 67% to Rp 87 billion, due to lower
volumes and reduced manufacturing margins.
Mix results occurs in subsidiaries’ financial achievements, where the profit from
foreign exchange difference managed to increase United Tractors’ Net Income,
even though Sales Revenue is declining. A positive contribution also comes from
Information Technology (IT) business segment where Astragraphia’s growth is
consider delightful.
Net income from Infrastructure business segment fell, mainly due to initial
losses arising from the beginning of section 1 of the Kertosono - Mojokerto toll
road operations.
Rating, valuation, and recommendation
We are downgrading to Hold rating with lower target price at Rp8,000 from our
previous target price at Rp8,500.
Our new target price is implying a 15.5x of 2016E P/E Ratio, which is also
in-line with the company’s historical average P/E Ratio in the last 5 years.
Our projections has also considering a possible economic slow-down this year
that will lower the company’s growth outlook in the future, especially in the
segments related to automotive and commodities.
PT Astra International, Tbk (ASII)
Company Update
Subsidiaries' 1Q yoy grow t h:
Sales
Net Income
UNTR
-9%
4%
AALI
-13%
-80%
AUTO
-7%
-67%
ASGR
6%
44%
Target Price
(Rp)
8,000
Current Price
(Rp)
7,375
Current JCI JKSE
5,242
Misc Indust ry, Aut omot ive
Bloomberg Ticker
ASII IJ
Reuters Ticker
ASII JK
52 week High
8,575
52 week Low
6,325
Market Cap
(tn Rp)
299
Market Cap
(bn $)
23
USDIDR
12,965
Free float (%)
50
Daily Average Vol
('000 shares)
35,555
5 yrs average P/E
15.5
Major Shareholders (%):
Jardine Cycle &
Carriage Ltd
50.10
Others under 5%
49.90
Relat ive Performance vs JCI:
Hold
(Rp bn)
3M 2014 3M 2015 Change
Revenue
49,821
45,187
-9%
Gross Profit
9,395
8,561
-9%
EBT
7,046
5,949
-16%
EAT
5,710
4,808
-16%
Net Income
4,727
3,992
-16%
EPS
117
99
-16%
Source:
Company's
release
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%Please see important disclosure information on the final page of this document
3
Past Financial Performance and Future Forecasts
Income St at ement
Balance Sheet
(bn Rp)
2014A
2015E
2016E
2017E
(bn Rp)
Revenue
201,701
207,860
215,247
223,972
Asset s
2014A
2015E
2016E
2017E
Gross Profit
38,809
40,420
42,394
44,673
Cash
20,902
32,082
43,854
57,350
EBT
27,352
28,290
29,693
31,311
Other Investments
277
404
424
445
EAT
22,125
22,954
24,093
25,406
Receivables
21,332
19,975
20,475
20,986
Min Interest
2,944
2,997
3,146
3,317
Financing Receivables
30,297
31,857
33,450
35,122
Net Income
19,181
19,957
20,947
22,089
Other Receivables
3,130
5,027
5,152
5,281
EPS
474
493
517
546
Inventories
16,986
18,380
18,839
19,310
Prepaid taxes
3,168
3,456
3,543
3,631
Target Price
8,000
Other prepayments
1,149
1,793
1,838
1,884
P/E
15.5
Tot al Current Asset s
97,241
112,974
127,575
144,011
Current Price
7,375
Financing Receivables
30,408
29,950
30,698
31,466
P/E
14.3
Other Receivables
2,543
4,247
4,353
4,462
Investment in assc & joints
27,250
27,797
28,492
29,204
Rat ios & Margins:
Other investments
5,455
5,044
5,170
5,299
Revenue growth
4.0%
3.1%
3.6%
4.1% Defered tax assets
2,891
3,065
3,141
3,220
Gross Profit margin
19.2%
19.4%
19.7%
19.9% Investment properties
2,534
2,679
2,746
2,815
Net Profit margin
9.5%
9.6%
9.7%
9.9% Plantations
6,007
6,343
6,501
6,664
Net Profit growth
-1.2%
4.0%
5.0%
5.4% Fixed Assets
41,250
41,178
40,160
38,243
DPR (as paid)
45.6%
45.6%
45.6%
45.6% Mining properties
9,149
9,507
9,745
9,988
DPS (as paid)
216
225
236
249
Concession/ Joint operation
4,930
5,115
5,243
5,374
BVPS
2,972
3,334
3,697
4,080
Goodwill
1,534
1,919
1,919
1,919
ROA
8.1%
7.8%
7.7%
7.7% Other intangible assets
1,968
2,084
2,136
2,189
ROE
15.9%
14.8%
14.0%
13.4% Other assets
2,869
3,008
3,084
3,161
Total Debt
69,023
68,313
67,126
65,984
Tot al Non Current Asset s
138,788
141,935
143,388
144,004
Net Debt
48,121
36,231
23,272
8,634
Tot al Asset s
236,029
254,909
270,963
288,015
DER
40.0%
26.8%
15.5%
5.2%
DPS (as paid)
216
225
236
249
Liabilit ies
2014A
2015E
2016E
2017E
DPR (as paid)
45.6%
45.6%
45.6%
45.6% Short term borrowings
10,586
9,468
9,752
10,045
Payables
18,839
21,311
22,377
23,495
Cash Flows
2014A
2015E
2016E
2017E
Other liabilities
5,648
6,162
6,347
6,538
Chg in work cap
(14,363)
(2,970)
(2,910)
(2,939)
Taxes payable
2,132
1,658
1,741
1,828
Net income
19,181
19,957
20,947
22,089
Accruals
5,450
7,341
7,561
7,788
Depreciation
4,151
6,351
6,668
7,002
Employee ben obligations
430
441
441
441
Net CF From Operat ion
8,969
23,339
24,706
26,151
Unearned income
3,603
3,937
4,331
4,764
Capex
(7,539)
(6,278)
(5,651)
(5,086)
Current portion of LT debt
26,835
24,130
23,527
22,939
Net CF From Invest ing
(7,539)
(6,278)
(5,651)
(5,086)
Bank loan
17,898
18,039
17,588
17,148
Loans and Debts
5,549
(758)
(1,212)
(1,166)
Debt securities
8,487
5,617
5,476
5,339
Employee Benefit Liabs
411
196
170
178
Finance lease
450
475
463
451
Non Ctrling Int
2,463
3,007
3,021
3,185
Tot al Current Liabilit ies
73,523
74,493
76,125
77,891
Chg in Equity
1,290
774
288
303
Other Liabilities
947
1,022
1,073
1,127
Dividend
(8,744)
(9,098)
(9,549)
(10,070)
Unearned income
2,537
2,423
2,665
2,932
Net CF From Financing
915
(5,880)
(7,283)
(7,570)
Defered tax liabilities
2,645
2,716
2,852
2,995
Provisions
192
180
189
199
Equit ies
2014A
2015E
2016E
2017E
Employee ben obligations
3,210
3,395
3,565
3,743
(bn Rp)
Long term debt
32,651
35,716
34,823
33,952
Issued & fully paid capital
2,024
2,024
2,024
2,024
Bank loan
19,587
23,755
23,161
22,582
Additional paid in capital
1,139
1,139
1,139
1,139
Debt securities
12,465
11,434
11,148
10,870
Retained earning
87,459
98,318
109,716
121,736
Finance lease
599
526
513
500
Approriated
425
425
425
425
Tot al Non Current Liabs
42,182
45,452
45,167
44,947
Unapproriated
87,034
97,893
109,291
121,311
Tot al Liabilit ies
115,705
119,945
121,293
122,838
Other rsv, equity chg
4,989
5,763
6,051
6,353
Minority Interest
24,713
27,720
30,740
33,925
3M 2014 3M 2015 Change
Tot al Equit y
120,324
134,964
149,670
165,177
Revenue
49,821
45,187
-9%
Gross Profit
9,395
8,561
-9%
EBT
7,046
5,949
-16%
EAT
5,710
4,808
-16%
Net Income
4,727
3,992
-16%
GENERAL DISCLAIMER :
The information contained in this report has been obtained from public sources believed to be reliable and the opinions
contained herein are expressions of belief based on such information. No representation or warranty, express or
implied, is made that such information or opinions is accurate, complete or verified and it should not be relied upon as
such.
This report does not constitute a prospectus or other offering document or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any
securities or other investments. Information and opinions contained in this report are published for reference of the
recipients and are not to be relied upon as authoritative or without the recipient’s own independent verification or
taken in substitution for the exercise of judgment by the recipient.
All opinions contained herein constitute the views of the analyst(s) named in this report, they are subject to change
without notice and are not intended to provide the sole basis of any valuation of the subject securities and companies
mentioned in this report.
Any reference to past performance should not be taken as an indication of future performance. No member company of
RELIANCE Group accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of the
materials contained in this report.
STOCK RATING DEFINITION :
Reliance Securities research recommendations are based on an Absolute Total Return (price appreciation + dividends) Rating
system, defined as follows
BUY –
Expected positive Total Return of 15% or more over the next 12 months.
HOLD –
Expected Total Return of between -15% and +15% over the next 12 months.
SELL –
Expected negative Total Return of 15% or more over the next 12 months.
NOT RATED
- Stock is not within regular research coverage
Disclosure of Interest Statement
1. Analyst ownership of the stock
No
2.
Clients/Company Associates ownership of the stock
No
3.
Broking relationship with company covered
No
4.
Investment Banking relationship with company covered
No
Reliance Securities research is available on the following electronic platform: Reliance Securities (www.reliance-securities.com),
Reuters and Bloomberg (RIJK GO).
RESEARCH DIVISION
Jasa Adhi Mulya jasamulya@reliance-securities.com
Robertus Yanuar Hardy robertus@reliance-securities.com
Lanjar Nafi Taulat I lanjar@reliance-securities.com
Aji Setiawan aji@reliance-securities.com
Alan Milgerry alan@reliance-securities.com
Pieter Djatmiko pieter@reliance-securities.com
Shanti Dwi Jayanti shanti@reliance-securities.com
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