Fixed Income Daily Notes
Global Market Update
At Wednesday, July 18, US treasury yield rose to 2.87% because The Fed Beige Book report about inflation pressure. On the other side, global benchmark bond yield moved varied, indicated by 10-years UK gilt that fell to 1.23% and German Bund that flat at 0.34%.
Yield US Treasury pada hari Rabu, 18 Juli 2018 ditutup mengalami kenaikan hingga ke level 2,87% akibat adanya laporan terkait tekanan inflasi dari The Fed. Di sisi lain, di pasar obligasi global, yield acuan global ditutup bervariasi, terlihat dari yield 10 tahun UK Gilt yang mengalami penurunan ke ranging from IDR 14,395—14,424 and yield of 10 year benchmark bond (FR0064) will be ranging from 7.60% - 7.66%.
Hari ini, Bank Indonesia (BI) akan mengumumkan hasil Rapat Dewan Gubernur (RDG) terkait kebijakan moneternya dalam 1 bulan ke depan. BI diprediksi akan menahan tingkat suku bunganya, atau biasa disebut 7-days Repo Rate (7DRR), pada level 5,25%. Menurut ekonom Bank Permata, Josua Pardede, setelah BI menaikkan tingkat suku bunga sebanyak 50 bps pada bulan lalu, volatilitas Rupiah berangsur-angsur mulai mereda. Tidak hanya itu, hingga saat ini, tingkat inflasi cenderung stabil di angka 3,12% pada bulan Juni. Oleh karena itu, mengingat stabilnya Rupiah dan inflasi, ia mengatakan bahwa kemungkinan besar BI akan mempertahankan tingkat suku bunganya pada bulan ini.
Hari ini, pergerakan harga SBN secara umum di pasar sekunder diprediksi cenderung melemah akibat naiknya yield AS. Nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar AS diprediksi bergerak pada kisaran Rp14.395 – Rp14.424 sedangkan yield benchmark 10 tahun (FR0064) pada perdagangan hari ini diperkirakan bergerak di rentang 7,60% - 7,66%.
Indonesia Government Bonds Yield
Maturities (Year) 18-Jul (-1 day) (-1 week) (-1 month)
Government Bond Ownership As of July 12, 2018 (in Trillion)
Holders 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 9-Jul-18 10-Jul-18 11-Jul-18 12-Jul-18 Banks 335.43 375.55 350.07 399.46 491.61 542.07 528.80 531.67 533.47 Bank Indonesia 44.44 41.63 148.91 134.25 141.83 136.08 144.41 137.98 137.59 Mutual Fund 42.50 45.79 61.60 85.66 104.00 111.4 112.3 112.5 112.3 Insurance 129.55 150.60 171.62 238.24 150.80 173.6 173.6 173.5 172.6 Foreign Investor 323.83 461.35 558.52 665.81 836.15 831.86 832.00 835.42 835.54 Pension Fund 39.47 43.30 49.83 87.28 198.06 220.47 220.42 220.45 220.65 Individual Investors 32.48 30.41 42.53 57.75 59.84 62.41 62.44 62.47 62.46 Others 47.56 61.32 78.76 104.84 117.48 131.33 131.33 131.31 131.32 Total 995.25 1,209.96 1,461.85 1,773.28 2,099.77 2,209.24 2,205.24 2,205.24 2,205.94 Source: Bloomberg, IDX & DJPPR
Volume Volume
(IDR bn) (IDR bn)
FR0064 89.25 7.70 3057 PNBN02CN3 idAA 97.39 8.29 80
FR0063 92.33 7.55 2997 FIFA03ACN2 idAAA 99.99 6.53 80
FR0075 94.20 8.09 2482 WSKT03BCN2 A-(idn) 98.39 8.68 65
FR0053 102.40 7.34 1239 BBRI01BCN3 idAAA 100.95 7.02 56
FR0069 100.80 6.72 992 SMBNII01CN2 idAAA(sy) 100.08 55
SPN12190131 97.03 5.73 710 WSKT03ACN1 A(idn) 93.27 11.48 51
FR0059 94.25 7.92 617 SIEXCL01BCN1 AAA(idn) 101.36 5.81 42
FR0070 103.75 7.54 499 ISAT02ACN3 idAAA 101.04 5.00 40
SPNS07082018 99.79 5.20 441 SMBEXI01ACN1 idAAA(sy) 101.07 5.19 31
FR0056 104.00 7.70 401 BEXI02BCN6 idAAA 100.35 6.91 30
Global Stock Marketss Last Price Chg (bps) % Chg % YTD Global Bonds 18-Jul
Indonesia (JCI) 5891 29.22 0.50% -7.32% 18-Jul (-1 day) (-1 week) (- 1 month)
Malaysia (KLCI) 1753 15.79 0.91% -2.43% Fed Fund Rate & US T-Bonds Yield
Thailand (SET) 1636 9.78 0.60% -6.72% Fed Fund Rate 2.00 2.00 2.00 1.75
Singapore (STI) 3241 0.86 0.03% -4.8% 2-Year 2.55 2.526 2.51 2.49
Hang Seng 28117 -64.26 -0.23% -6.0% 5-Year 2.73 2.722 2.72 2.76
Nikkei 225 22794 96.83 0.43% 0.13% 10-Year 2.87 2.86 2.85 2.94
Shanghai 2787 -10.87 -0.39% -15.72% 30-Year 2.95 2.96 2.97 3.07
Dow Jones (DJIA) 25199 79.40 0.32% 1.94% 10-Year Government Bond Yield
London (FTSE 100) 7676 49.95 0.65% -0.15% UK 1.23 1.26 1.29 1.30
DAX 12766 104.40 0.82% -1.2% Germany 0.34 0.34 0.37 0.38
France 0.63 0.63 0.65 0.71
FX Rate 18-Jul China 3.47 3.48 3.51 3.61
18-Jul (-1 day) (-1 week) Japan 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03
USD/IDR 14,409 14,384 14,392 Korea 2.73 2.73 2.73 2.73
GBP/USD 1.307 1.312 1.321 Thailand 2.75 2.74 2.59 2.64
USD/JPY 112.9 112.9 112.0 Malaysia 4.09 4.11 4.09 4.22
USD/SGD 1.365 1.365 1.364 Singapore 2.42 2.41 2.41 2.54
USD/THB 33.31 33.31 33.34 Indonesia USD Bond Yield
USD/MYR 4.060 4.046 4.039 INDO-22 3.74 3.77 3.82 3.97
INDO-27 4.26 4.27 4.37 4.46
Macroeconomic Data INDO-47 4.90 4.92 5.02 5.19
Jun-18 May-18 Apr-18
Consumer Price Index (MoM) 0.59 0.21 0.10 Money Market 18-Jul
Consumer Price Index (YoY) 3.12 3.23 3.41 18-Jul (-1 day) (-1 week) (- 1 month)
Core Inflation (YoY) 2.72 2.75 2.69 JIBOR
BI 7-Day RR Rate (%) 5.25 4.75 4.25 O/N 5.00 5.00 4.96 4.32
Foreign Reserve (US$ Bn) 119.8 122.9 124.9 1M 6.94 6.98 7.18 6.80
3M 7.23 7.24 7.35 7.06
Indonesia Sovereign CDS LIBOR
As of 2-year 5-year 10-year 1M 2.09 2.09 2.09 2.05
18-Jul 42.77 115.55 193.78 3M 2.34 2.34 2.34 2.33
(-1 Day) 43.04 116.33 194.86 6M 2.51 2.51 2.50 2.49
(-1 Week) 48.61 126.52 211.12 Indonesia Interest Rates
(-1 Month) 53.05 133.06 212.42 Deposit 1M 5.66 5.67 5.68 5.52
(-1 Year) 43.12 116.07 186.13 Lending 13.8 13.7 14.4 13.4
Benchmark 18-Jul (-1 day) Change Yield
FR0061 98.54 98.75 -21 7.44%
FR0059 95.26 95.80 -54 7.75%
FR0074 95.65 96.02 -36 8.02%
FR0072 101.43 101.60 -17 8.10%
Government Bonds Prices
Closing Price Data : 18-Jul-2018
Series Maturity TTM Coupon Price YTM Price (-1) Price Spread (bps) FR0032 15-Jul-18 -0.01 15.000% 100.05 205.68% 100.05 0.0 FR0038 15-Aug-18 0.08 11.600% 100.58 3.38% 100.59 -1.3 FR0048 15-Sep-18 0.16 9.000% 100.50 5.57% 100.50 0.0 FR0069 15-Apr-19 0.74 7.875% 100.86 6.65% 100.93 -7.5 FR0036 15-Sep-19 1.16 11.500% 105.15 6.77% 105.09 5.7 FR0031 15-Nov-20 2.33 11.000% 108.19 7.10% 108.12 7.3 FR0034 15-Jun-21 2.91 12.800% 114.29 7.25% 114.34 -4.6 FR0053 15-Jul-21 2.99 8.250% 102.53 7.29% 102.61 -8.4 FR0061 15-May-22 3.83 7.000% 98.54 7.44% 98.75 -20.8 FR0035 15-Jun-22 3.91 12.900% 119.38 7.13% 119.38 0.0 FR0043 15-Jul-22 3.99 10.250% 109.14 7.55% 109.03 10.2
FR0063 15-May-23 4.83 5.625% 92.41 7.53% 92.62 -21.7
FR0046 15-Jul-23 4.99 9.500% 108.60 7.41% 108.60 0.0 FR0039 15-Aug-23 5.08 11.750% 117.31 7.57% 117.49 -18.0 FR0070 15-Mar-24 5.66 8.375% 103.70 7.56% 104.55 -84.7 FR0044 15-Sep-24 6.17 10.000% 111.26 7.67% 111.55 -29.4 FR0040 15-Sep-25 7.17 11.000% 117.66 7.74% 117.97 -31.4 FR0037 15-Sep-26 8.17 12.000% 125.34 7.75% 125.69 -34.5 FR0056 15-Sep-26 8.17 8.375% 103.65 7.76% 104.13 -47.8 FR0059 15-May-27 8.83 7.000% 95.26 7.75% 95.80 -54.2 FR0042 15-Jul-27 9.00 10.250% 115.75 7.78% 116.33 -58.0 FR0047 15-Feb-28 9.59 10.000% 114.62 7.80% 114.94 -31.1
FR0064 15-May-28 9.83 6.125% 89.89 7.60% 90.41 -52.1
FR0071 15-Mar-29 10.67 9.000% 108.61 7.79% 108.83 -21.7 FR0052 15-Aug-30 12.08 10.500% 118.75 8.04% 118.75 0.0 FR0073 15-May-31 12.83 8.750% 106.06 7.98% 106.47 -40.3 FR0054 15-Jul-31 13.00 9.500% 111.72 8.03% 111.91 -18.4 FR0058 15-Jun-32 13.92 8.250% 100.53 8.18% 101.75 -122.0 FR0074 15-Aug-32 14.09 7.500% 95.65 8.02% 96.02 -36.5
FR0065 15-May-33 14.84 6.625% 89.53 7.83% 89.67 -13.6
FR0068 15-Mar-34 15.67 8.375% 102.51 8.09% 102.68 -16.4 FR0072 15-May-36 17.84 8.250% 101.43 8.10% 101.60 -17.1 FR0045 15-May-37 18.84 9.750% 114.28 8.24% 114.276 0.0
FR0075 15-May-38 138.47 7.500% 94.59 8.05% 95.27 -67.9
FR0050 15-Jul-38 20.01 10.500% 122.00 8.24% 122.00 0.0 FR0057 15-May-41 22.84 9.500% 110.74 8.43% 110.81 -6.9 FR0062 15-Apr-42 23.76 6.375% 78.95 8.44% 78.94 0.8 FR0067 15-Jul-43 25.01 8.750% 103.15 8.45% 103.18 -2.8 FR0076 15-May-48 29.85 7.375% 90.60 8.35% 90.98 -37.5
Macroeconomic Indicator Calendar (19 - 23 Maret 2018)
Macroeconomic Indicator Calendar (July, 16 - 20 2018)
Source: Tradingeconomics and Bloomberg (2018)
INDONESIA
Date Indicator Series Data Actual Previous Projection
16 Balance of Trade Jun-18 1.74 billion USD -1.52 billion USD 0.73 billion USD
19 Loan Growth (YoY) Jun-18 - 10.26% -
19 7-Days (Reverse) Repo Rate - - 5.25% 5.25%
GLOBAL
Date Indicator Country Series Data Actual Previous Projection
16 Economic Growth (YoY) China Quarter-II 6.7% 6.8% 6.7%
16 Balance of Trade Euro Area May-18 16.5 billion EUR 16.7 billion EUR 23.6 billion EUR
16 Retail Sales (MoM) US Jun-18 0.5% 1.3% 0.3%
17 Unemployment Rate Britain Great May-18 4.2% 4.2% 4.3%
18 Inflation Rate (YoY) Britain Great Jun-18 2.4% 2.4% 2.6%
18 Inflation Rate Final (YoY) Euro Area Jun-18 2.0% 1.9% 2.0%
18 Crude Oil Inventory US July 13 - 2018 5.84 million barrel -12.6 million barrel -1.9 million barrel Week Ended,
19 Balance of Trade Japan Jun-18 - -578 billion JPY 315.7 billion JPY
19 Initial Jobless Claims US Week Ended, July 14-2018 - 214 thousand 217 thousand
20 Current Account Euro Area May-18 - 26.2 billion EUR 17.4 billion EUR
19 Continuing Jobless Claims US Week Ended, July 07-2018 - 1739 thousand 1737 thousand
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