Share Performance (%)
Month Absolute Relative
3m 13.4 12.5
6m 13.5 1.1
12m 18.8 -2.6
BUY
Ultrajaya Milk Industry & Trading
Marjin 3Q16 yang sangat luar biasa
Penghasilan hampir mencapai prakiraan penuh tahun; angka kinerja kuat
Ultrajaya (ULTJ IJ) melaporkan hasil kinerja 9M16 yang kuat, mencatat laba bersih Rp546bn (+39% YoY), mewakili 92%/90% dari baik proyeksi kami maupun proyeksi konsensus FY. Pendapatan periode ini Rp3.5tn (+5% YoY), mewakili 74%/69% berturut-turut dari proyeksi kami dan konsensus. Dana tunai 9M16 mencapai angka Rp1.4tn, jauh di atas proyeksi kami Rp1.3tn untuk sepanjang tahun. FCF solid di angka Rp596bn.
3Q16 terlihat sebagai kuartal yang menantang untuk mendorong volum...
Perusahaan mencatat pendapatan Rp1.1tn selama 3Q16 (-4% QoQ, +6% YoY), di mana pertumbuhan YoY sebagian besar didukung oleh kenaikan harga 4.5% pada produk olahan susu di akhir Juni (ULTJ menjaga harga stabil sepanjang tahun 2015). Harga produk-produk teh sejauh ini juga dijaga tidak berubah. Tentang volum, tidak bisa terlalu dijabarkan karena cara perusahaan melaporkan keuangan, namun menurut kami pertumbuhan volum 3Q16 untuk olahan susu terhitung lemah, baik QoQ maupun YoY (kemungkinan pertumbuhan satu angka, di kisaran bawah), sementara volum teh masih bisa menyeret agregat pertumbuhan volum makin jauh ke bawah. Menurut pernyataan ULTJ per segmen, berdasarkan VAT-kotor, pendapatan minuman (produk UHT yang mencakup olahan susu dan teh) turun sebesar 4% QoQ (+4% YoY), sementara pendapatan makanan (non-UHT, yang terdiri dari susu kental) turun sebesar 2% QoQ (YoY tidak terlalu berarti).
... namun ULTJ tetap mampu mencatat kinerja marjin yang sangat baik
GPM ULTJ di 3Q16 menyentuh titik tertinggi dalam sejarah di angka 37%, didorong oleh harga bahan mentah yang masih bersahabat dan IDRUSD QoQ yang tidak bergerak (Rp13.130/USD). ULTJ memanfaatkan harga susu bubuk impor yang rendah, mengikuti kebiasaan perusahaan menimbun pasokan satu hingga dua kuartal di depan (harga olahan susu global di 1Q16-2Q16 sangat lemah di bawah AS$2.000/ton) berdasarkan pengamatan kami. Sebagai tambahan, pembelanjaan iklan dan promosi (A&P) sebagai persentase pendapatan di 3Q16 tidak terlalu signifikan yaitu 0.6%, yang menyediakan dukungan materi untuk marjin keseluruhan (OPM 3Q16 26%, titik tertinggi dalam sejarah). Menurut analisa kami, pembelanjaan A&P umumnya naik 4Q-kemungkinan mengikuti permintaan konsumen yang lebih kuat dengan datangnya musim liburan-proyeksi kami pembelanjaan A&P akan menjadi ~7% dari pendapatan di 4Q16, menutup tahun di angka 5.5% dari total pendapatan.
Upgrade penghasilan berkat turunnya pembelanjaan A&P-masih merekomendasi BELI untuk jangka panjang
Kami meng-upgrade penghasilan FY16E sebesar 15% berkat pembelanjaan A&P yang lebih rendah, sementara perkiraan angka penghasilan FY17E tidak berubah. Kami juga mempertahankan harga target yang datang dari PER FY17E yaitu Rp5.400/saham. Kami tetap menyukai saham ini melihat besarnya dana tunai yang dipegang, kualitas penghasilan tinggi, ekspansi ke industri hulu pengolahan susu (yang sejalan dengan visi jangka panjang pemerintah untuk swasembada pangan), dan struktur permintaan domestik yang relatif bisa diperkirakan dalam hal konsumsi UHT, seperti yang telah dibahas di laporan kami (24 Okt). ULTJ saat ini diperdagangkan pada PER (SCOR) FY17E sebesar 22x, konsensus 19x-nilai valuasi yang sangat wajar untuk "sapi perah" kualitas tinggi ini, menurut kami. Tetap BELI.
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS (Rp Billions) 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F Sales Revenue 3.917 4.394 4.669 5.452 6.370 EBITDA 467 797 986 896 774
INDONESIA
CONSUMER
Share Price Performance
Flash Note
1 November 2016
Stock Data
Bloomberg Ticker ULTJ IJ Equity
Outs. Share (bn) 2.89
Mkt Cap (T IDR) 13.7
52 Week Range (IDR) 3,480-5,000 6M Avg Val (IDR bn) 0.53
YTD Returns (%) 20.4% Beta (x) 0.49 Current price Rp4,750 Price target Rp5,400 Upside/Downside 13.7% 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 Oct -15 Nov -15 Dec -15 Ja n -16 F e b -16 M a r-16 A p r-16 M a y -16 Ju n -16 Ju l-16 A u g -16 S e p -16 Oct -16
2 Fig 1 ULTJ’s 3Q16 performance has been stellar due to inventory effect, FX, and much lower A&P spending
ULTJ IJ Unit 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16 % QoQ % YoY 9M15 9M16 % YoY SCOR FY16E % to SCOR
Revenue Rp bn 1.089 1.200 1.156 -4% 6% 3.275 3.453 5% 4.669 74% Gross Profit Rp bn 341 421 423 0% 24% 1.023 1.191 16% 1.557 76% EBIT Rp bn 204 163 303 86% 49% 483 662 37% 754 88% Pre-Tax Profit Rp bn 221 175 326 86% 48% 517 719 39% 788 91% Net Profit Rp bn 169 135 246 82% 45% 394 546 39% 596 92% Gross Margin (%) 31% 35% 37% 31% 34% 33% EBIT Margin (%) 19% 14% 26% 15% 19% 16% Pre-Tax Margin (%) 20% 15% 28% 16% 21% 17% Net Margin (%) 16% 11% 21% 12% 16% 13%
Source: Company, Sucorinvest Research
Fig 2 Table summary of our earnings changes for ULTJ
FY16E FY17E
Old New % Change Old New % Change
P&L (Rp bn) Revenue 4.669 4.669 0,0% 5.452 5.452 0,0% Gross Profit 1.557 1.557 0,0% 1.587 1.587 0,0% EBITDA 871 986 13,2% 896 896 0,0% Net Profit 596 683 14,5% 618 621 0,4% Profitability (%) Gross Margin 33% 33% 29% 29% EBITDA Margin 19% 21% 16% 16% Net Margin 13% 15% 11% 11%
Ultrajaya Milk Industry & Trading (ULTJ IJ)
Financial Year Ending 31 Dec Current Price (Rp/Share): 4.750
Profit & Loss Statement Cash Flow Statement
2015 2016F 2017F 2018F 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F
Revenue 4.394 4.669 5.452 6.370 Net Profit 519 683 621 534
Cost of Sales (3.011) (3.112) (3.865) (4.737) Dep. & Amort. 144 118 127 133
Gross Profit 1.382 1.557 1.587 1.633 Minority Interest 6 (1) (2) 0
SG&A Expenses (730) (689) (819) (992) Others (40) 13 (8) (6)
Oper. Profit 653 869 768 641 Changes in NWC (33) (22) (137) (196)
EBITDA 797 986 896 774 CF from Oper. 596 791 602 466
Net Interest: 34 31 49 62 Capex (301) (232) (255) (266)
Int. Income 36 36 53 67 Others 16 (44) (1) 6
Int. Expense (2) (5) (5) (5) CF Investing (285) (276) (256) (260)
FX Gain (Loss) (0) (7) (8) (7) Change in Debt 48 1 - (6)
Equity in Investees (26) (23) (24) (24) S-T Borrowings (7) 16 - (1)
Others - Net 40 33 36 36 Dividends Paid - - - -
Pre-Tax Profit 701 903 820 709 Issuance & Others 7 (0) (0) (0)
Inc. Tax - Net (178) (222) (201) (174) CF Financing 49 17 (0) (8)
Minority Interest (4) 1 2 (0) Cash Reclass. - - - -
Net Profit 519 683 621 534 Change in Cash 360 532 345 198
Beg. Balance 489 849 1.381 1.726
End. Balance 849 1.381 1.726 1.924
Balance Sheet Key Ratios
2015 2016F 2017F 2018F 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F
Cash & Equiv. 849 1.381 1.726 1.924 Margins
Receivables 448 473 553 646 Gross Margin (%) 31,5% 33,3% 29,1% 25,6%
Inventory - Net 739 730 872 1.069 Oper. Margin (%) 14,9% 18,6% 14,1% 10,1%
Others 68 68 68 68 EBITDA Mgn. (%) 18,1% 21,1% 16,4% 12,2%
Current Assets 2.104 2.652 3.219 3.706 Net Margin (%) 11,8% 14,6% 11,4% 8,4%
Fixed Assets 1.161 1.275 1.402 1.536
Other LT Assets 276 323 329 327 Valuations
LT Assets 1.436 1.598 1.731 1.862 P/E (x) 26,4 20,1 22,1 25,7
Total Assets 3.540 4.250 4.950 5.569 P/BV (x) 4,9 3,9 3,3 3,0
EV/EBITDA (x) 16,3 12,7 13,6 15,4
Curr. Maturities 25 26 26 25
ST Borrowings 3 19 19 18 Gearing/Liquidity
Trade Payables 367 375 466 571 Interest Cover. (x) 282,52 175,97 155,65 136,76
Other Liabilities 167 154 148 137 ND/Equity (x) -0,26 -0,36 -0,39 -0,39
Curr. Liab. 562 574 659 750 ND/Tot. Cap. (x) -0,25 -0,34 -0,37 -0,37
LT Debt 100 100 100 95 Current Ratio (x) 3,75 4,62 4,88 4,94
Other Liabilities 81 98 94 92 Quick Ratio (x) 2,43 3,35 3,56 3,51
LT Liabilities 181 198 194 187
Total Liabilities 743 772 853 938 Profitability
ROA (%) 16,1% 17,5% 13,5% 10,2%
Paid-Up Capital 578 578 578 578 ROE (%) 20,5% 21,8% 16,4% 12,2%
Paid-In Excess 51 51 51 51 ROCE (%) 22,3% 24,0% 18,1% 13,4%
Treasury Stock - - - - Earnings Yld. (%) 3,8% 5,0% 4,5% 3,9%
Others 2.169 2.850 3.468 4.002 Dividend Yield (%) 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0%
4
Sucorinvest rating definition, analysts’ certification, and important disclosure
Ratings for Sectors
Overweight : We expect the industry to perform better than the primary market index (JCI) over the next 12 months. Neutral : We expect the industry to perform in line with the primary market index (JCI) over the next 12 months. Underweight : We expect the industry to underperform the primary market index (JCI) over the next 12 months
Ratings for Stocks
Buy : We expect this stock to give return (excluding dividend) of above 10% over the next 12 months. Hold : We expect this stock to give return of between -10% and 10% over the next 12 months.
Sell : We expect this stock to give return of -10% or lower over the next 12 months
Analyst Certification
The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the preparation of this research report hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect their personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers. The research analyst(s) also certify that no part of their compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.
Disclaimers
This document has been prepared for general circulation based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness. PT Sucorinvest Central Gani accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or any solicitations of an offer to buy or sell any securities. PT Sucorinvest Central Gani and its directors, officials and/or employees may have positions in, and may affect transactions in securities mentioned herein from time to time in the open market or otherwise, and may receive brokerage fees or act as principal or agent in dealings with respect to these companies. PT Sucorinvest Central Gani may also seek investment banking business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
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